Thoughts on the Market
Short, thoughtful and regular takes on recent events in the markets from a variety of perspectives and voices within Morgan Stanley.
The Future Reckoning of Tariff Escalation
The ultimate market outcomes of President Trump’s tactical tariff escalation may be months away. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy Michael Zezas takes a look at implications for investors now.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy. Today: The latest on U.S. tariffs and their market impact.
It’s Thursday, July 10th at 12:30pm in New Yo...
Are Foreign Investors Fleeing U.S. Assets?
Our Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang discusses whether demand for U.S. stocks has fallen and where fund flows are surging.
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Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley’s Chief Cross-Asset Strategist.
Today – is the demand for U.S. assets declining? Let's look at the recent trends in global investment flows.
It’s Wednesday, July 9th at 1pm in New York.
The U.S. equity...
How AI Is Disrupting Defense
Arushi Agarwal from the European Sustainability Strategy team and Aerospace & Defense Analyst Ross Law unpack what a reshaped defense industry means for sustainability, ethics and long-term investment strategy.
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Ross Law: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ross Law from Morgan Stanley's European Aerospace and Defense team.
Arushi Agarwal: And I'm Arushi Agarwal from the European Sustainability Research Team.
Ross Law: Today, a topic that's rapidly defining the boundaries of sustainable in...
Have U.S. Consumers Shaken Off Tariff Concerns?
The American consumer isn’t simply pulling back. They are changing the way they spend – and save. Our U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist Michelle Weaver digs into the data.
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Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist.
Today, the U.S. consumer. What's changing about the ways Americans spend, save and feel about the future?
It's Monday, July 7th at 10a...
America’s Debt Story
For a special Independence Day episode, our Head of Corporate Credit Research considers a popular topic of debate, on holidays or otherwise – national debt.
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Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.
Today on a special Independence Day episode of the podcast, we're going to talk a bit about the history of U.S. debt and the contrast between corporate and federal debt trajectories.
It...
Three Possibilities for What’s Next on Tariffs
Our analysts Michael Zezas and Ariana Salvatore discuss the upcoming expiration of reciprocal tariffs and the potential impacts for U.S. trade.
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Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.
Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, US Public Policy Strategist.
Michael Zezas: Today we're talking about the outlook for US trade policy. It's Wednesday, July 2nd at 10:00 AM in New York.
...
How AI Could Transform the Real Estate Sector
Ron Kamdem, our U.S. Real Estate Investment Trusts & Commercial Real Estate Analyst, discusses how GenAI could save the real estate industry $34 billion and where the savings are most likely to be found.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Ron Kamdem, Head of Morgan Stanley’s U.S. Real Estate Investment Trusts and Commercial Real Estate research. Today I’ll talk about the ways GenAI is disrupting the real estate industry.
It’s Tuesday, July 1st...
The U.S. Housing Market Slowdown
The U.S. housing market appears to be stuck. Our co-heads of Securitized Product research, Jay Bacow and James Egan, explain how supply and demand, as well as mortgage rates, play a role in the cooling market.
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James Egan: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jim Egan, co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley.
Jay Bacow: And I'm Jay Bacow, the other co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. And afte...
Watching the Canary in the Coalmine
Stock tickers may not immediately price in uncertainty during times of geopolitical volatility. Our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets suggests a different indicator to watch.
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Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.
Today I'm going to talk about how we're trying to simplify the complicated questions of recent geopolitical events.
It's Friday, June 27th at 2pm in Lo...
Why the Fed Will Cut Late, But Cut More
Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matt Hornbach and U.S. Economist Michael Gapen assess the Fed’s path forward in light of inflation and a weaker economy, and the likely market outcomes.
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Matt Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.
Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.
Matt Hornbach: Today we're discussing the outcome of the June Federal O...
Humanoids’ Insatiable Hunger for Minerals
Our Australia Materials Analyst Rahul Anand discusses why critical minerals may be the Achilles’ heel of humanoids as demand significantly outpaces supply amid geopolitical uncertainties.
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Rahul Anand: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Rahul Anand, Head of Morgan Stanley’s Australia Materials Research team.
Today, I'll dig deeper into one of the vital necessities for the development of robotics – critical minerals – and why they're so vital to be front of mind for the Western...
India Outperforms with High Growth and Low Volatility
Morgan Stanley’s Chief Asia Equity Strategist Jonathan Garner explains why Indian equities are our most preferred market in Asia.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Jonathan Garner, Morgan Stanley’s Chief Asia Equity Strategist. Today I’ll discuss why we remain positive on India’s long-term equity story.
It’s Tuesday, the 24th of June at 9am in Singapore.
We’ve had a long-standing bullish outlook on the India economy an...
Why Stocks Can Be Resilient Despite Geopolitical Risk
Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why investors have largely remained calm amid recent developments in the Middle East.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I’ll be discussing how to think about the tensions in the Middle East for U.S. equities.
It's Monday, June 23rd at 11:30am in New York. <...
Midyear Credit Outlook: An Odd Disconnect in Asia
Our analysts Andrew Sheets and Kelvin Pang explain why international issuers may be interested in so-called ‘dim sum’ bonds, despite Asia’s growth drag.
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Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.
Kelvin Pang: And I'm Kelvin Pang, Head of Asia Credit Strategy.
Andrew Sheets: And today in the program we're going to finish our global tour of credit markets with a discus...
How Oil Could Price Amid Mideast Tensions
Our Global Commodities Strategist Martijn Rats explores three possible scenarios for oil prices in light of geopolitical shifts in the Middle East.
Important note regarding economic sanctions. This research may reference jurisdiction(s) or person(s) which are the subject of sanctions administered or enforced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (“OFAC”), the United Kingdom, the European Union and/or by other countries and multi-national bodies. Any references in this report to jurisdictions, persons (individuals or entities), debt or equity instruments, or projects that may be covered by such sancti...
Why Markets Should Keep an Eye on Japan’s AI Playbook
Our Senior Japan Economics Advisor discusses Japan’s systematic approach to AI and the lessons it offers for other markets.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Robert Feldman, Senior Advisor at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities in Tokyo. Today I’d like to discuss Japan’s crucial contributions in global AI development.
It’s Tuesday, June 17, at 2 PM in Tokyo.
Japan has always been a world leader in advanced technology infrastructur...
A Bullish Case for Large Cap U.S. Equities
While market sentiment on U.S. large caps turns cautious, our Chief CIO and U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why there's still room to stay constructive.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast, I’ll be discussing why we remain more constructive than the consensus on large cap U.S. equities – and which sectors in particular.
It's Monday...
The Economic Stakes of President Trump’s Immigration Policy
Our economists Michael Gapen and Sam Coffin discuss how a drop in immigration is tightening labor markets, and what that means for the U.S. economic outlook and Fed policy.
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Michael Gapen: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.
Sam Coffin: And I'm Sam Coffin, Senior Economist on our U.S. Economics research team.
Michael Gapen: Today we're going to have a discussion about...
Midyear Credit Outlook: Slowdown in Europe
Our analysts Andrew Sheets and Aron Becker explain why European credit markets’ performance for the rest of 2025 could be tied to U.S. growth.
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Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.
Aron Becker: And I'm Aron Becker, Head of European Credit Strategy.
Andrew Sheets: And today on the program, we're continuing a series of conversations covering the outlook for cred...
What the New Tax Bill Means for Cross-Border Portfolios
Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy Michael Zezas reads the fine print of U.S. tax legislation to understand how it might affect foreign companies operating in the U.S. and foreign investors holding U.S. debt.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.
Today we're talking about a proposal tucked away in U.S. tax l...
How China Is Rewriting the AI Code
Our Head of Asia Technology Research Shawn Kim discusses China's distinctly different approach to AI development and its investment implications.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Shawn Kim, Head of Morgan Stanley’s Asia Technology Team. Today: a behind-the-scenes look at how China is reshaping the global AI landscape.
It’s Tuesday, June 10 at 2pm in Hong Kong.
China has been quietly and methodically executing on its top-down strategy to establish i...
U.S. Financials Conference: Three Key Themes to Watch
Our analysts Betsy Graseck, Manan Gosalia and Ryan Kenny discuss the major discussions they expect to highlight Morgan Stanley’s upcoming U.S. Financials conference.
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Betsy Graseck: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Large Cap Bank Analyst and Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Banks and Diversified Finance Research.
Today we take a look at the key debates in the U.S. financials industry.
It’s Monday...
Standing by Our Outlook
Morgan Stanley’s midyear outlook defied the conventional view in a number of ways. Our analysts Serena Tang and Vishy Tirupattur push back on the pushback to their conclusions, explaining the thought process behind their research.
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Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Cross-Asset Strategist
Vishy Tirupattur: And I'm Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist.
Serena Tang: Today's topic, pushback to our outlook.
It's...
5 Reasons the Obesity Drug Market Remains Strong
The global market for obesity drugs is expanding. Our U.S. Pharma and Biotech Analyst Terrence Flynn discusses what’s driving the next stage of global growth for GLP-1 medicines.
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Terrence Flynn: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Terrence Flynn, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Pharma and Biotech Analyst. The market for obesity medicines is at an inflection point, and today I'll focus on what's driving the next stage of global growth.
It's Thurs...
Midyear U.S. Credit Outlook: Why Investors Should Be Selective
Our analysts Andrew Sheets and Vishwas Patkar take stock of the U.S. credit market, noting which segments are on firm footing going into a period of slower growth.
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Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts On the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.
Vishwas Patkar: And I'm Vishwas Patkar, Head of U.S. Credit Strategy at Morgan Stanley.
Andrew Sheets: Today on the program, we're going to ha...
U.S. Shoppers Take Stock
Our Thematics and U.S. Economics analysts Michelle Weaver and Arunima Sinha discuss how American consumers are planning to spend as they consider tariffs, inflation and potential new tax policies.
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Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, U.S. Thematic and Equity strategist.
Arunima Sinha: And I'm Arunima Sinha from the Global and U.S. Economics Teams.
Michelle Weaver: Today – an encouraging update on the U.S. consumer...
Why Equity Markets May Be Stronger Than You Think
Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains how his outlook on earnings and valuations give him a constructive view on U.S. equities for the next 12 months.
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Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist.
Today on the podcast I’ll discuss where there is the most push back to our Mid-year outlook and why I remain c...
Why Interest Rates Matter Again
Our Head of Corporate Credit Research explains why the legal confusion over U.S. tariffs plus the pending U.S. budget bill equals a revived focus on interest rates for investors.
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Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.
Today I'm going to revisit a theme that was topical in January and has become so again. How much of a problem are hig...
What Now with Tariffs?
After the federal court’s ruling against Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, and an appeals court’s temporary stay of that ruling, our analysts Michael Zezas and Michael Gapen discuss how the administration could retain the tariffs and what this means for the U.S. economy.
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Michael Zezas: Welcome to the Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.
Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael...
How to Decode Tariff Signals
Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research & Public Policy Strategy, Michael Zezas, shares the answers to clients’ top U.S. policy questions from Morgan Stanley’s Japan Investor Summit.
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Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley’s Global Head of Fixed Income Research & Public Policy Strategy. Today, takeaways from our Japan Investor Summit.
It’s Wednesday, May 28th at 10:30am in New York.
Last week, I attende...
Luxury Sector Tightens Its Belt
Live from the Morgan Stanley Luxury Conference in Paris, our analysts Arunima Sinha and Eduoard Aubin discuss the economic and consumer trends shaping demand for luxury goods.
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Arunima Sinha: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Arunima Sinha from Morgan Stanley's Global and U.S. Economics teams.
Eduoard Aubin: And I'm Eduoard Aubin, Head of the Luxury Goods team.
Arunima Sinha: This episode was recorded last week when we were at the a...
Midyear U.S. Outlook: Equity Markets a Step Ahead?
Global trade tensions have eased after a steadying in U.S. policy shifts, leading our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson to make a more bullish case for the second half of 2025.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast, I will discuss recent developments on tariffs and interest rates, and how it affects our 12 month view for...
Midyear Global Outlook, Pt 2: Why the U.S. Still Leads Global Markets
Our analysts Serena Tang and Seth Carpenter discuss Morgan Stanley’s out-of-consensus view on U.S. exceptionalism, and how investors should position their portfolios given the current market uncertainty.
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Seth: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.
Serena: And I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.
Seth: Today, we're going to pick up the conversation where we left it off, talking about our mid...
Midyear Global Outlook, Pt 1: Skewing to the Downside
Our analysts Seth Carpenter and Serena Tang discuss why they believe the global economy is set to slow meaningfully in the second half of 2025.
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Serena: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.
Seth: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.
Serena: Today we'll discuss Morgan Stanley's midyear outlook for the global economy and markets.
It's Wednesday, May 21st at 10am in...
Japan Summit: Consumer Resilience and Trade Uncertainty
Live from the Morgan Stanley Japan Summit, our analysts Chiwoong Lee and Sho Nakazawa discuss their outlook for the Japanese economy and stock market in light of the country’s evolving trade partnerships with the U.S. and China.
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Lee-san: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Chiwoong Lee, Principal Global Economist at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities.
Nakazawa-san: And I’m Sho Nakazawa, Japan Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities.
Lee-san: T...
Market Risks Persist After U.S.-China Trade Detente
Markets have reacted positively to the U.S.-China détente in tariffs. Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Vishy Tirupattur, digs into the rallies to better understand potential longer-term outcomes.
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Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Today I'll talk about the impact of last week's 90-day pause in the reciprocal tariffs between the U.S. and China, and the impact on the economy and...
Lessons Amid the Market Rollercoaster
As market uncertainty continues around the Trump administration’s trade policy, our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets reflects on the key takeaways that investors may learn from the ongoing volatility.
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Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today I'm going to discuss what we think we can actually learn from all of the back and forth in markets.
It's Frida...
The Rise Of The Humanoid Economy
Our analysts Adam Jonas and Sheng Zhong discuss the rapidly evolving humanoid technologies and investment opportunities that could lead to a $5 trillion market by 2050.
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Adam Jonas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Adam Jonas Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Autos and Shared Mobility.
Sheng Zhong: And I'm Sheng Zhong, Head of China Industrials.
Adam Jonas: Today we're talking about humanoid robots and the $5 trillion global market opportunity we see by 2050.
<...What the Tax Debate Could Mean for Markets
Our strategists Michael Zezas and Ariana Salvatore provide context around U.S. House Republicans’ proposed tax bill and how investors should view its potential market impact.
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Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.
Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, Public Policy Strategist.
Michael Zezas: Today, we'll dig into Congress's deliberations on taxes and fiscal spending.
It's...
Can Private Credit Weather Macro Risks?
Our analysts Vishy Tirupattur and Joyce Jiang discuss the health of private credit as default pressures are building for borrowers amid weaker growth, fewer rate cuts and policy uncertainty.
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Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist.
Joyce Jiang: And I'm Joyce Jiang, U.S. Leverage Finance Strategist.
Vishy Tirupattur: Today we'll take a look at private credit markets. Will it stay...
