Thoughts on the Market
Short, thoughtful and regular takes on recent events in the markets from a variety of perspectives and voices within Morgan Stanley.
Warsh’s Plan to Change the Fed
Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee for the next Fed Chair, testified in front of the Senate earlier this week. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets presents key takeaways from the two-and-half-hour testimony.
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Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.
Today on the program, a first look at potentially the next Fed chair.
It's Friday, April 24th at 9am in N...
The Hidden Toll of Tariffs
Our Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research Seth Carpenter asks Mayank Phadke, a member of his team, to give up an update on tariffs and their real cost to the U.S. economy.
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Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And I'm joined by Mayank Phadke, a member of my global economics team. And today we're going to talk about tariffs. I bet...
U.S. Midterms: What Investors Should Watch
Although the conflict in Iran keeps dominating the news cycle, investors have an eye on the upcoming U.S. midterm elections. Our Deputy Global Head of Research Michael Zezas and Head of Public Policy Research Ariana Salvatore consider policy implications – from healthcare and consumer to AI.
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Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Deputy Global Head of Research for Morgan Stanley.
Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of Public Policy Research.
Warnings and Winners From the IMF Meetings
Back from the IMF Spring Meetings in Washington, Simon Waever and Seth Carpenter unpack what policy makers and investors could be underpricing: the growth hit from higher energy costs, the risk of too much tightening by central banks and why emerging markets still look resilient.
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Simon Waever: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Simon Waever, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Emerging Markets Sovereign Credit and LatAm Fixed Income Strategy.
Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Globa...
Where Investment Themes Intersect and Beat Markets
Our Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research Stephen Byrd unpacks how major investment themes for 2026 are increasingly interconnected, generating gains for investors.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Stephen Byrd, Morgan Stanley’s Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research.
Today – how our 10 big thematic predictions are playing out and driving global markets.
It’s Monday, April 20th at 11:30am in New York.
Back in January, we laid out four key them...
The Real Drivers of GLP-1 Growth
Our Head of U.S. Pharma and Biotech Terence Flynn discusses how the rapid pace of adoption of weight management treatments could have far-reaching implications across healthcare, consumer behavior and global markets.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Terence Flynn, Morgan Stanley’s Head of U.S. Pharma and Biotech Research. Today: the next phase of growth in obesity medicines – the GLP-1 unlock.
It’s Friday, April 17th, at 2pm in New York.
There ar...
Markets Eye Hungary’s Political Shift
Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets breaks down how Péter Magyar’s win in Hungary’s election could smooth relations with the EU and lower the risk premium in the country’s assets.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.
Today on the program, how we’re thinking about the market implications of a recent election.
It’s Thursday, April 16th at 2pm...
Economic Roundtable: Structural Fallouts From the Iran Conflict
Our Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter concludes the two-part discussion with chief regional economists Michael Gapen, Jens Eisenschmidt and Chetan Ahya on the second order effects of the energy shock from tensions in the Middle East.
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Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts in the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And once again, I am joined by Morgan Stanley's chief regional economists: Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist, Chetan Ahya, the Chi...
Economic Roundtable: Energy Shock & Central Banks’ Action
In this first of a two-part discussion, our Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter leads a discussion with chief regional economists Michael Gapen, Jens Eisenschmidt and Chetan Ahya on impacts of the conflict in Iran and how central banks are responding.
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Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts in the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And today we're going to kick off our quarterly economic roundtable. And this is where we try to...
Mounting Evidence of a Market Rebound
Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson shares his perspective on why investors should position for a stock market recovery despite ongoing uncertainty.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist.
Today on the podcast I’ll be discussing why equity investors – sometimes – need to look away from the headlines.
It's Monday, April 13th at 11:30am in New York.
So, let’...
Making Sense of Mixed Market Signals
Despite a historic disruption to global energy markets, the stock market remains resilient. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets suggests U.S. markets may offer a steady course in the near term.
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Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.
Today on the program: Trying to square conflicting market signals.
It's Friday, April 10th at 2pm in London.
...
U.S Consumer Spending Meets Caution
Our U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist Michelle Weaver breaks down the results of a new survey on U.S. consumer spending and confidence.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley’s U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist. Today, we’re bringing you an update on the U.S. consumer as we try and understand the outlook for the economy.
It’s Thursday, April 9, at 10 AM in New York.
You’ve pro...
U.S.-Iran Truce: What’s Next?
While a tentative ceasefire in the Middle East holds, the Strait of Hormuz continues to be a sticking point in diplomatic efforts. Our Deputy Global Head of Research Michael Zezas and Head of Public Policy Research Ariana Salvatore walk through some scenarios that could play out.
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Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Deputy Global Head of Research for Morgan Stanley.
Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of Public Policy Research.
M...
The Real Risks of Oil Price Spikes
A supply-driven oil shock may start with inflation, but Morgan Stanley’s Senior Global Economist Rajeev Sibal discusses why investors need to understand the second-order hit to growth, policy and markets.
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Rajeev Sibal: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Rajeev Sibal, Senior Global Economist at Morgan Stanley.
Today, economic risk from an oil shock isn't the price of oil itself – but really what happens next?
It's Tuesday, April 7th at 3pm in Dubai.
An oi...
Riding the Final Innings of the Market Correction
Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson talks about risks in this late stage of the equity market pullback, how investors should position and what could come next.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist.
Today on the podcast I’ll be discussing what investors should be doing as we enter the final innings of this equity market correction.
It's Mond...
How the Oil Shock Is Reshaping Markets
Our Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang discusses why the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its impact on oil prices could define the entire market cycle.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley’s Chief Cross-Asset Strategist. Today: how the latest energy shock is rippling across every major asset class.
It’s Thursday, April 2nd, at 10am in New York.
Right now, the markets aren’t just reacting to oil – th...
Oil Markets Ahead: Pricing In More Risk
As the Strait of Hormuz continues to be a chokepoint for oil, our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets and our Head of Commodity Research Martijn Rats discuss possible outcomes for the interconnected market.
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Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.
Martijn Rats: I'm Martijn Rats, Head of Commodity Research at Morgan Stanley.
Andrew Sheets: And today in the program...
A New Test for Private Credit
Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur and Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s Global Head of Private Credit & Equity David Miller discuss the recent pressure on the private credit market, potential risks and opportunities that remain in that space.
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Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist.
David Miller: And I'm David Miller, Global Head of Private Credit and Equity within Morgan Stanley Investment Management.
Vishy Ti...
A Bull Market May Be Closer Than It Looks
The stock market has already discounted many disruptions, including geopolitics, oil and AI. Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why investors are now focused on one thing: whether monetary policy stays too tight for too long.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist.
Today on the podcast I’ll be discussing why the balance between the upside and the downside is ac...
Inside Credit Market’s Issuance Boom and Private Lending Risks
Our Global Head of Fixed Income Andrew Sheets and Head of U.S. Credit Strategy Vishwas Patkar discuss what’s driving record debt issuance and growing worries about private credit.
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Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.
Vishwas Patkar: And I'm Vishwas Patkar, Head of U.S. Credit Strategy at Morgan Stanley.
Andrew Sheets: And today on the pr...
Why Fed Rate Cuts Could Be Pushed Back
Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach and our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen discuss how oil prices, tariffs and inflation expectations are raising the bar for rate cuts by the Fed, and markets’ response to the new scenario.
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Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.
Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.
Matthew Hornbach: Today, the outcome of the Ma...
Can Government Action Tame Rising Energy Prices?
Our Head of Public Policy Research Ariana Salvatore breaks down what’s being discussed by policymakers around the world to try to cap the oil price spike.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Ariana Salvatore, Head of Public Policy Research.
Today, I’ll be talking about the ongoing conflict in Iran and the policy options to offset a rise in oil prices.
It’s Wednesday, March 25th at 8pm in Tokyo.
The U.S.-Iran c...
Oil Markets Are Even Tighter Than They Appear
Our Global Commodities Strategist Martijn Rats discusses how the Strait of Hormuz shutdown has created a deep air pocket that will likely keep markets tighter and prices higher for longer than many expect.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley’s Global Commodities Strategist. Today – an update on the global impact on the Strait of Hormuz shutdown.
It’s Tuesday, March 24th, at 3pm in London.
More than three weeks into...
Asia’s Energy Dependence Meets a Narrow Strait
Our Asia Energy Analyst Mayank Maheshwari discusses how the conflict in the Middle East is sending ripple effects through Asia’s energy, power and food systems.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Mayank Maheshwari, Morgan Stanley’s research analyst covering energy markets in India and Southeast Asia.
Today—how disruptions linked to Iran and the Strait of Hormuz are creating energy-related disruptions across Asia.
It’s Monday, March 23rd, at 8am in Singapore.
<...‘March Madness’ for Markets Too
As the Iran conflict upends market narratives, our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets offers his take on how to view the historic disruption happening in March and what the next few weeks could bring.
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Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.
Today on the program, a survey of just how quickly key narratives have changed and how lasting that might be. <...
Europe’s Banks Navigate Uncertainty
Live from Morgan Stanley’s European Financials Conference, our Head of European Banks Alvaro Serrano and European Equity Research Banks Analyst Giulia Aurora Miotto discuss how geopolitics, private credit risk and AI are testing how resilient banks really are.
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Alvaro Serrano: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Alvaro Serrano, Head of European Banks.
Giulia Aurora Miotto: And I'm Giulia Aurora Miotto, European Equity Research Banks Analyst.
Alvaro Serrano: Today we're at our annual European...
Oil Shock Hits the U.S. Consumer
A prolonged oil disruption is pushing gas prices higher. Arunima Sinha from our U.S. and Global Economics team joins Head of U.S. Policy Strategy Ariana Salvatore to discuss what that means for consumer spending, inflation expectations and the U.S. midterm elections.
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Arunima Sinha: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Arunima Sinha from Morgan Stanley's U.S. and Global Economics Teams.
Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of U.S. Policy Strategy.
Japan’s Bull Market Takes Shape
Morgan Stanley MUFG ’s Japan Equity Strategist Sho Nakazawa talks about the sectors that are leading the current rebound of Japanese stocks and why these gains may be more than a cyclical shift.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Sho Nakazawa, Japan Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities.
Today: How Japan’s Takaichi administration could define Japan’s stock market for years to come.
It’s Tuesday, March 17th, at 3 PM in Tokyo.
Is the Market Correction Ending?
With volatility and oil prices up while Fed policy is easing, our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson breaks down why today’s selloff is giving flashbacks to March 2025—and why he believes his bull case still holds.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist.
Today on the podcast I’ll discuss how the equity market has been processing recent headlines for months.
<...The Looming Bottleneck for Global Tech
Our Head of Asia Technology Research Shawn Kim explains what disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz could mean for the global semiconductor supply chain and the immediate future of AI infrastructure.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Shawn Kim, Head of Morgan Stanley’s Asia Technology Team.
Today: why the Strait of Hormuz closure may matter to the global technology industry.
It’s Friday, March 13th, at 8 pm in Taipei.
AI a...
What Could Make U.S. Homes More Affordable
Our co-heads of Securitized Products Research Jay Bacow and James Egan discuss the impact of upcoming regulatory changes on U.S. mortgage rates and home sales.
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Jay Bacow: It is March and there's some madness going on. I'm Jay Bacow, here with Jim Egan, noted Wahoo Wa fan.
James Egan: Hey, it looks like Virginia's going to be back in the tournament this year, hoping for a three seed, looking like a four seed. It's the first...
The 20 million Barrels of Oil Conundrum
Our analysts Andrew Sheets and Martijn Rats discuss why a prolonged disruption of oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz would be unprecedented—and nearly impossible for the market to absorb.
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Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.
Martijn Rats: I'm Martijn Rats, Head of Commodity Research at Morgan Stanley.
Andrew Sheets: Today on the program we're going to talk about why...
Oil Rally Tests Diversification Strategy
Our Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang discusses how rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions could make stocks and bonds move in the same direction, challenging one of the key principles of portfolio diversification.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley’s Chief Cross-Asset Strategist.
Today: what happens if your main diversification strategy suddenly stops working because of oil price moves?
It’s Tuesday, March 10th, at 10am in New York.
...The Reasons for the Bull Market to Resume
Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why history, technicals and fundamentals suggest a clearer runway for U.S. stocks six months out, despite geopolitical concerns.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist.
Today on the podcast, I’ll be discussing the conflict in Iran and what it means for equities.
It's Monday, March 9th at 11:30 am in New York.
...AI’s $3 Trillion Question: How to Pay the Bill?
In the second of our two-part panel discussion from Morgan Stanley’s TMT conference, our analysts break down the complexity of financing AI’s infrastructure and the technological disruption happening across industries.
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Michelle Weaver: Welcome back to Thoughts on the Market, and welcome to part two of our conversation live from the Technology, Media and Telecom conference. I'm Michelle Weaver, U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley.
Today we're continuing our conversation with Stephen Byrd, Jo...
AI’s Tangible Wins and Disruption
Live from Morgan Stanley’s TMT conference, our panel break down where AI is already delivering real returns—and where rapid advances are raising new risks.
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Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist here at Morgan Stanley.
Today we've got a special episode on AI adoption. And this is a first in a two-part conversation live from our Technology, Media and Telecom conference.
It's Thursd...
Pricing the Conflict With Iran
Our Deputy Global Head of Research Michael Zezas and Head of Public Policy Research Ariana Salvatore assess the potential market outcomes of the Middle East conflict, weighing its possible duration and economic impact.
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Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Deputy Global Head of Research.
Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of Public Policy Research.
Michael Zezas: Today we're discussing the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict, the market...
Travel Becomes a New Growth Engine for China
Our Hong Kong/China Transportation & Infrastructure Analyst Qianlei Fan discusses how China’s travel industry is shifting from a post-pandemic rebound to a multi-year expansion.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Qianlei Fan, Morgan Stanley’s Hong Kong / China Transportation Analyst. Today, I'll share my thoughts on why travel is quickly emerging as one of [the] key drivers of China's economic rebalancing.
It’s Tuesday, March the 3rd, at 2pm in Hong Kong.
I've just...
The Risks of Private Credit's Software Exposure
Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur and U.S. Head of Credit Strategy Vishwas Patkar discuss the implications of private credit’s exposure to the software industry.
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Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist.
Vishwas Patkar: I'm Vishwas Patkar, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Head of Credit Strategy.
Vishy Tirupattur: While potential disruption from AI has been a key driver for markets [in the] last...
AI as New Global Power?
Our Deputy Head of Global Research Michael Zezas and Stephen Byrd, Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research, discuss how the U.S. is positioning AI as a pillar of geopolitical influence and what that means for nations and investors.
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Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Deputy Head of Global Research.
Stephen Byrd: And I'm Stephen Byrd, Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research.
Michael Zezas: Today – is AI b...
