Thoughts on the Market
Short, thoughtful and regular takes on recent events in the markets from a variety of perspectives and voices within Morgan Stanley.
Why the U.S. Dollar Still Smiles
Our G10 FX Market Strategist Andrew Watrous challenges the prevailing market view on the U.S. dollar, reaffirming the relevance of Morgan Stanley’s "dollar smile" framework.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Andrew Watrous, G10 FX Strategist at Morgan Stanley. Today – a look at how the US dollar behaves under different global growth circumstances. And why – contrary to the views of some observers – we think the dollar still smiles.
It’s Friday, Septemb...
Walking a Narrow Economic Path
Our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets discusses the scenarios markets may face in September and for the rest of the year, as the Federal Reserve weighs interest rate cuts amidst slowing job growth and persistent inflation.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.
Today, the narrow economic path the markets face as we come back from summer.
It's Thursday, September 4th...
Why a Fed Pivot Could Trigger Volatility
Fed Chair Jay Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole underscored the central bank’s new focus on managing downside growth risks. Michael Zezas, our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy, talks about how that shift could impact markets heading into 2026.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.
Today: What a subtle shift in the Fed’s reaction function could me...
Are Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities Making a Comeback?
Our Co-Heads of Securitized Products Research Jay Bacow and James Egan explain why the macro backdrop could be changing in favor of agency mortgages after the Fed’s annual meeting in Jackson Hole.
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Jay Bacow: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jay Bacow, Co-Head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley.
James Egan: And I'm Jim Egan, the other Co-Head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley.
Jay Bacow: Today we're here to ta...
Market Outcomes of Fed’s New Course
In the second of a two-part episode, our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen and Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach talk about how Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar could react to the possible Fed rate path.
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Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.
Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.
Yesterday we talked about...
Breaking Down the Fed’s New Course
In the first of a two- part episode, our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen and Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach discuss the outcome of the Jackson Hole meeting and the outlook for the U.S. economy and the Fed rate path during the rest of the year.
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Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.
Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stan...
Could a Fed Rate Cut Affect Credit Quality?
Our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets discusses why a potential start of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve might be a cause for concern for credit markets.
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Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today – could interest rate cuts by the Fed unleash more corporate aggressiveness?
It's Wednesday, August 27th at 2pm in London.
Last week, the Fed chair, Je...
Gen Z Trends That Could Disrupt Markets
Our analysts Adam Jonas and Alex Straton discuss how tech-savvy young professionals are influencing retail, brand loyalty, mobility trends, and the broader technology landscape through their evolving consumer choices.
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Adam Jonas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley's Embodied AI and Humanoid Robotics Analyst.
Alex Straton: And I'm Alex Straton, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Softlines Retail and Brands Analyst.
Adam Jonas: Today we're unpacking our annual summer intern survey...
How Stocks Could React to a Fed Pivot
Opinions by market pundits have been flying since Fed Chair Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole last week, leaving the door open for interest rate cuts as soon as in September. Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains his continued call for a bullish outlook on U.S. stocks.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast...
What to Watch When Credit Spreads Narrow
Credit spreads are at the lowest levels in more than two decades, indicating health of the corporate sector. However, our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets highlights two forces investors should monitor moving forward.
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Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.
Today – what to make of credit spreads as they hit some of their lowest levels in over 20 years? And what co...
AI Takes the Wheel
From China’s rapid electric vehicle adoption to the rise of robotaxis, humanoids, and flying vehicles, our analysts Adam Jonas and Tim Hsiao discuss how AI is revolutionizing the global auto industry.
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Adam Jonas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Adam Jonas. I lead Morgan Stanley's Research Department's efforts on embodied AI and humanoid robots.
Tim Hsiao: And I'm Tim Hsiao, Greater China Auto Analyst.
Adam Jonas: Today – how the global auto...
The Fed’s Next Moves After Mixed Data
Markets have already priced in a Fed cut, given the mixed economic data in the July labor and CPI prints. Our Global Economist Arunima Sinha makes the case for why we’re standing by our baseline call for a higher bar for a rate cut.
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Arunima Sinha: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Arunima Sinha, Global Economist at Morgan Stanley.
Today – our evaluation of the Fed's policy path following the July CPI print, and the broade...
Why Credit Is Core to AI Expansion
Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur brings in Vishwas Patkar, Head of U.S. Credit Strategy, and Carolyn Campbell, Head of Consumer and Commercial ABS Research, to explain our high conviction on the role of credit markets in data center financing.
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Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley’s Chief Fixed Income Strategist.
Vishwas Patkar: I'm Vishwas Patkar, Head of U.S. Credit Strategy.
Carolyn Campbell: ...
What’s Fueling the Future of Energy in Asia?
Our analysts Tim Chan and Mayank Maheshwari discuss how nuclear power and natural gas are reshaping Asia’s evolving energy mix, and what these trends mean for sustainability and the future of energy.
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Tim Chan: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Tim Chan, Morgan Stanley's Head of Asia Sustainability Research.
Mayank Maheshwari: And I am Mayank Maheshwari, the Energy Analyst for India and Southeast Asia.
Tim Chan: Today – a major shift i...
Special Encore: Bracing for Sticker Shock
Original Release Date: July 11, 2025
As U.S. retailers manage the impacts of increased tariffs, they have taken a number of approaches to avoid raising prices for customers. Our Head of Corporate Strategy Andrew Sheets and our Head of U.S. Consumer Retail and Credit Research Jenna Giannelli discuss whether they can continue to do so.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
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Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Res...
A Divergence of Thought on the Fed’s Path
The market thinks the Fed is likely to cut rates come September. Morgan Stanley economists disagree. Our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets explains our viewpoint and presents three scenarios for corporate credit.
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Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.
Today – the big difference between our view and the market on what the Fed will do next month; and how that impacts...
Tariffs’ Impact on Economy and Bond Markets
Although tariff negotiations continue, deals are being made, shifting investor focus on assessing the fallout. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy Michael Zezas and Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen consider the ripple effects on inflation and the bond market.
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Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.
Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Econo...
The Credibility of Inflation Targets
Can a central bank simply announce an inflation target and get everyone to believe it? Our Global Economist Arunima Sinha looks at the cases of South Africa and Brazil to explain why it’s a subject of decades-long debate.
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Arunima Sinha: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Arunima Sinha, Global Economist at Morgan Stanley.
Today I'm going to talk about how inflation targets of central banks matter for market participants and economic activity.
It...
How AI is Driving the Digital Revolution in Sports
Morgan Stanley Research looks at how changes in demographics, ownership, and distribution can boost tech adoption to revolutionize the global sports industry.
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Cesar Medina: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Cesar Medina, Morgan Stanley’s Latin America Technology, Media, and Telecom Analyst. Today – we discuss what’s driving the digital revolution in global sports. And what it means for fans as well as investors.
It’s Monday, August 11th, at 10am in New York.
Backpacks, Laptops and Sneakers
Our U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist Michelle Weaver discusses what back-to-school spending trends reveal about consumer sentiment and the U.S. economy.
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Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley’s U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist here at Morgan Stanley.
Today -- we're going back to school! A look at the second biggest shopping season in the U.S.. And what it can tell us about t...
A Whiff of Stagflation
So far, markets have shown resilience, despite the volatility. However, our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets points out that economic data might tell a different story over the next few months, with a likely impact on yields.
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Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.
Today – how a tricky two months could feel a lot like stagflation, and a lot different from...
How Credit Markets Could Finance AI’s Trillion Dollar Gap
Until now, the AI buildout has largely been self-funded. Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur and our Head of U.S. Credit Strategy Vishwas Patkar explain the role of credit markets to fund a potential financing gap of $1.5 trillion as spending on data centers and hardware keeps ramping up.
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Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist.
Vishwas Patkar: And I'm Vishwas Patkar, Head...
Higher Bar for September Rate Cut
There’s a dichotomy between the pace of job growth and the unemployment rate. Our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen and Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach analyze how the Fed might address this paradox.
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Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.
Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.
Matthew Hornbach: Today – a look back at las...
Why Stocks Get Ahead of the Fed
Economic data looks backward while equity markets are looking ahead. Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why this delays the Federal Reserve in both cutting and hiking rates – and why this is a feature of monetary policy, not a bug.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I’ll be discussing why economic data can be coun...
Why Markets Remain Murky on Tariff Fallout
While investors may now better understand President Trump’s trade strategy, the economic consequences of tariffs remain unclear. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Michael Zezas and our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen offer guidance on the data they are watching.
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Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.
Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Chief U...
How Waning American Dominance Could Move Yields
Lisa Shalett, our Wealth Management CIO, and Andrew Sheets, our Head of Corporate Credit Research, conclude their discussion of American Exceptionalism, factoring in fixed income, in the second of a two-part episode.
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Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.
Lisa Shalett: And I'm Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
Andrew Sheets: Today – a today a concludin...
Is American Market Dominance Over?
In the first of a two-part episode, Lisa Shalett, our Wealth Management CIO, and Andrew Sheets, our Head of Corporate Credit Research, discuss whether the era of “American Exceptionalism” is ending and how investors should prepare for a global market rebalancing.
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Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.
Lisa Shalett: And I'm Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
Andrew...
A Good Time to Buy the Dip?
AI adoption, dollar weakness and tax savings from the Big Beautiful Bill are some of the factors boosting our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson’s confidence in U.S. stocks.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I will discuss what's driving my optimism on stocks.
It's Tuesday, July 29th at 11:30am in New York...
Singapore’s $4 Trillion Transformation
Our Head of ASEAN Research Nick Lord discusses how Singapore’s technological innovation and market influence are putting it on track to continue rising among the world’s richest countries.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Nick Lord, Morgan Stanley’s Head of ASEAN Research.
Today – Singapore is about to celebrate its 60th year of independence. And it’s about to enter its most transformative decade yet.
It’s Monday, the 28th...
Who Will Fund AI’s $3 Trillion Ask?
Joining the AI race also requires building out massive physical infrastructure. Our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets explains why credit markets may play a critical role in the endeavor.
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Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.
Today – how the world may fund $3 trillion of expected spending on AI.
It's Friday July 25th at 2pm in London.
Whe...
Trump‘s AI Action Plan
The Trump administration unveiled a 28-page AI Action Plan, outlining more than 90 policy actions, with an ambition for the U.S. to win the AI race. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy Michael Zezas, and U.S. Public Policy Strategist Ariana Salvatore, explain why investors need to keep an eye on AI policy.
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Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research an...
Will the Entertainment Business Stay Human?
Our U.S. Media & Entertainment Analyst Benjamin Swinburne discusses how GenAI is transforming content creation, distribution and also raising some serious ethical questions.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Ben Swinburne, Morgan Stanley’s U.S. Media and Entertainment Analyst. Today – GenAI is poised to shake up the entertainment business.
It’s Wednesday, July 23, at 10am in New York.
It's never been easier to create art for anyone – with a little help fro...
Asia’s $46 Trillion Question
Our Chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya discusses three key decisions that will determine Asia’s international investment position and affect currency trends.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley’s Chief Asia Economist.
Today – an issue that’s gaining traction in boardrooms and trading floors: the three big decisions Asia investors are facing right now.
It’s Tuesday, July 22nd, at 2 PM in Hong Kong.
So, let’s start...
Can a ‘Shadow Chair’ Steer the Fed?
As Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends next year, our Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter discusses the potential policy impact of a so-called “shadow Fed chair”.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley’s Global Chief Economist. And today – well, there’s a topic that’s stirring up a lot of speculation on Wall Street and in Washington. It’s this idea of a Shadow Fed Chair.
It’s Monday, July 21...
No Summer Slowdown for Markets – Yet
Markets may seem calm following recent policy headlines, but for Michael Zezas, our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy, investors may need to wait on more data to assess whether the macroenvironment will remain stable.
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Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.
Today: Why there's no summer slowdown yet for U.S. policy catalysts for the...
How a Weaker Dollar Could Boost U.S. Stocks
The dollar’s bearish run is likely to affect U.S. equity markets. Michelle Weaver, our U.S. Thematic & Equity Strategist, and David Adams, our Head of G10 FX Strategy, discuss what investors should consider.
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Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, U.S. Thematic and Equity strategist at Morgan Stanley.
David Adams: And I'm Dave Adams, head of G10 FX Strategy here at Morgan Stanley.
Michelle Weaver: ...
Coming Soon: The Tariff Hit on Economic Data
U.S. tariffs have had limited impact so far on inflation and corporate earnings. Our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets explains why – and when – that might change.
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Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.
Today I'm going to talk about why tariffs are showing up everywhere – but the data; and why we think this changes this quarter.
It's Wednesda...
The End of the U.S. Dollar’s Bull Run?
Our analysts Paul Walsh, James Lord and Marina Zavolock discuss the dollar’s decline, the strength of the euro, and the mixed impact on European equities.
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Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Markets. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's Head of European Product. And today we're discussing the weakness we've seen year-to-date in the U.S. dollar and what this means for the European stock market.
It's Tuesday, July the 15th at 3:00 PM in Lo...
How Wall Street Is Weathering the Tariff Storm
Stocks hold steady as tariff uncertainty continues. Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains how policy deferrals, earnings resilience and forward guidance are driving the market.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I’ll be discussing why stocks remain so resilient.
It's Monday, July 14th at 11:30am in New York.
So, let’s...
Bracing for Sticker Shock
As U.S. retailers manage the impacts of increased tariffs, they have taken a number of approaches to avoid raising prices for customers. Our Head of Corporate Strategy Andrew Sheets and our Head of U.S. Consumer Retail and Credit Research Jenna Giannelli discuss whether they can continue to do so.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.
Jenna Giannelli: And I...
