Thoughts on the Market
Short, thoughtful and regular takes on recent events in the markets from a variety of perspectives and voices within Morgan Stanley.
Why Central Banks Are Raising Rates Again
Central banks are turning more hawkish as inflation risks increase. Our Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research Seth Carpenter explains what that means for the Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley’s Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. Today, I’m going to talk about all the movement we’ve seen in central banks and how it’s changing our forecasts...
Market Resilience Isn’t Complacency
Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson discusses why quality stocks, strong earnings and price momentum support his view that the bull market remains intact.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist.
Today on the podcast I’ll be discussing the ongoing mid-cycle transition.
It's Monday, September 21st at 11:30 am in New York.
So, let’s get after it. <...
Trump-Xi Talks Put Trade and Tech in Focus
As President Xi heads to Washington, trade, rare earths and AI are set to dominate the agenda. Our Head of U.S. Public Policy Research Ariana Salvatore unpacks what the meeting could mean for supply chains, tech stocks and the broader market.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Ariana Salvatore: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of U.S. Public Policy Research at Morgan Stanley.
Today, I'll be talking about next week's U.S.-China summit, specifically the...
Why the Fed May Have Further to Go
After raising interest rates for the first time in more than three years, the Fed still doesn’t see policy as restrictive. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets breaks down what that could mean for the monetary policy path.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.
Today, why the Federal Reserve may have raised interest rates and yet still thinks tha...
One Fed Hike—Or More to Come?
Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach joins our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen to discuss the Fed’s potential next moves and how energy prices are influencing market expectations.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy at Morgan Stanley.
Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.
Matthew Hornbach: Today, what the Federal Reserve decided at its September me...
The Mid-Cycle Shift Equity Investors Shouldn’t Miss
Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson breaks down how the market is transitioning to a mid-cycle environment, with leadership shifting toward higher-quality, asset-light companies with durable earnings.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist.
Today on the podcast I’ll be discussing why inflation should not be a concern for equity investors.
It's Tuesday, September 15th at 9...
Patients Are Taking the Driver's Seat in Healthcare
Healthcare companies are rethinking their business models as patients gain more control over how they access care and purchase medicine. Our analysts Erin Wright and Terence Flynn unpack this shift and the emerging opportunities.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Erin Wright: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Erin Wright, US Healthcare Services Analyst at Morgan Stanley.
Terence Flynn: And I'm Terence Flynn, Morgan Stanley's US BioPharma Analyst.
Erin Wright: Today, how the consumer is moving into the driver's...
Why the Middle-Class Squeeze Is Getting Worse
Heather Berger of the U.S. Economics Team hosts Wealth Management Senior Economist and Strategist Sarah Wolfe to discuss what it takes to define the middle class in America today. They break down how factors like rising essential costs and the development of AI are reshaping consumer balance sheets and financial security.
Sarah Wolfe is a member of Morgan Stanley's Wealth Management Division and is not a member of Morgan Stanley’s Research Department. Unless otherwise indicated, her views are her own and may differ from the views of the Morgan Stanley Research Department and from the vi...
The Fed, Football and the Price of Ambiguity
Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets discusses when markets may not adequately compensate investors for uncertainty around themes like Fed policy, AI financing and energy supply.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, what American football can teach us about the value of ambiguity.
It's Thursday, September 10th at 2p.m. in London.
I really like this...
Can the AI Spending Boom Pay Off?
Big Tech is pouring more than $1.4 trillion into AI, prompting investors to ask: Is it worth it? Our U.S. Internet analyst Brian Nowak looks at three business models that could earn 25 to 50 percent returns for Gen-AI-enabled technologies.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Brian Nowak: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Brian Nowak, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Internet analyst.
Today, can the enormous investment behind Gen AI actually pay off?
It's Wednesday, September 9th, at 9am in New...
AI Debt Starts Moving the U.S. Treasurys Market
U.S. Treasurys are the foundation of the bond market. But our strategists Matthew Hornbach and Vishy Tirupattur explain the growing impact of corporate credit as AI financing accelerates.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy at Morgan Stanley.
Vishy Tirupattur: I am Vishy Tirupattur, Chief Fixed Income Strategist.
Matthew Hornbach: Today, the interplay between the U.S. Treasury market and the corporate bond market.<...
What Could Shake Up Markets in September?
Investors have plenty to digest this month, from economic data to central-bank decisions. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets outlines what could drive the next bout of volatility.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.
Today, several catalysts for more volatility later this month.
It's Friday, September 4th at 2pm in London.
Over more than a...
Why Oil Prices Could Rise to $100 Again
Our Global Commodities Strategist Martijn Rats explains how tightening supply and shrinking buffers are pushing Brent prices up again, and what that would mean for fuel costs and energy markets.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Martijn Rats: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley’s Global Commodities Strategist.
Today: why the oil market is tightening, and why we now see Brent reaching $100 per barrel later this year.
It’s Thursday, September 3rd, at 3pm in Lon...
3 Policy Catalysts to Watch This Fall
Midterm elections, backlash against data centers and a U.S.-China summit. Michael Zezas and Ariana Salvatore discuss themes that could test investor confidence in the coming months.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Deputy Global Head of Research for Morgan Stanley.
Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of Public Policy Research.
Michael Zezas: Today, we'll look ahead to public policy catalysts that matter for investors this fall.<...
The $33 Billion AI Security Opportunity
As AI agents gain access to sensitive enterprise systems, companies need new ways to control what they can do. Meta Marshall breaks down the emerging market for agentic identity security.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Meta Marshall: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Meta Marshall, Morgan Stanley’s U.S. Cybersecurity and Telecom & Network Equipment analyst.
Today: AI assistants are starting to act on our behalf at work, which brings up a critical question. What should these agents be allow...
From Coffee to Cans: A U.S. Caffeine Shift
Younger generations are reshaping caffeine consumption. Our U.S. Household Products and Beverage Analyst Dara Mohsenian discusses how the growing appetite for energy drinks could influence beverage habits for years to come.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Dara Mohsenian: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Dara Mohsenian, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Household Products and Beverage Analyst.
Today, we're going to talk about how the next generation of U.S. consumers is really redefining their daily caffeine boost.
It's Mon...
The Politics Behind the Rising U.S. Debt
Our Head of U.S. Public Policy Research Ariana Salvatore looks at what the midterms may reveal about politician’s appetite for tackling the faster-than-expected increase in the U.S. debt.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Ariana Salvatore: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of U.S. Public Policy Research at Morgan Stanley.
Today, why fiscal is back in focus and what we can learn about the broader debt trajectory from the upcoming midterm elections.
It's Frida...
Jackson Hole Tests the Fed’s Framework
Investors are keeping a close eye on Jackson Hole for signals on the economic outlook and the path for rates. Our Chief U.S. economist Michael Gapen joins Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach to discuss whether markets get what they want—or what the Fed needs.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Matt Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy at Morgan Stanley.
Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Eco...
When Does Higher U.S. Debt Start to Matter?
Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets discusses when and how higher yields and mounting U.S. debt could become more than abstract concerns.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.
Today, at what point do higher yields and higher debt actually matter?
It's Wednesday, August 26th at 2pm in London.
In its first 240 years, the United Sta...
Measuring the Market’s Megatrends
Paul Walsh, Michelle Weaver and Daniel Blake discuss how thematic mapping can help investors separate true beneficiaries from market hype and identify risks hiding beneath the surface.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Paul Walsh: Welcome everyone to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's Head of Research in Europe.
Michelle Weaver: And I'm Michelle Weaver, U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist.
Daniel Blake: And I'm Daniel Blake, Head of Asia Thematic Strategy.
Walsh: And today we...
Markets Faces Hotter, Shorter Cycles
Bonds may no longer provide the shelter investors have expected. Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson talks about the changing relationship between inflation, yields and risk.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Bonds may no longer provide the shelter investors have ex
Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist.
Today on the podcast I’ll be discussing the shifting landscape in macro markets...
Shifts in Credit Markets for the AI Buildout
AI’s enormous capital requirements are reshaping the way companies tap credit markets. Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur takes stock of this summer’s key financing developments.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley’s Chief Fixed Income Strategist.
Today: Why the summer of 2026 is all about AI Financing and the evolution of credit markets.
It is Friday August 21st at 2pm in New York.
The s...
The New Map of AI Power
AI is becoming a matter of national strategy, as countries seek more control over their own technology. Our Heads of U.S. Public Policy Ariana Salvatore and Global Thematic Research Stephen Byrd look at the race for AI sovereignty and its implications for investors.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Ariana Salvatore: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of U.S. Public Policy Research at Morgan Stanley.
Stephen Byrd: And I'm Stephen Byrd, Head of Global Thematic Research a...
El Niño’s Ripple Effects on Markets
From chocolate and sugar prices to energy markets and inflation, El Niño’s impacts may soon reach far beyond the weather forecast. Our Latin America Agribusiness Analyst Julia Rizzo maps out where the pressure could emerge first.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Julia Rizzo, Latin America Agribusiness Analyst at Morgan Stanley.
Today: how El Niño could move from the Pacific into commodity markets, grocery prices, and investor portfolios.
It’s Wednesda...
Korean Stocks: From Correction to a Healthy Recovery
After a historic rally and a sharp correction, South Korea’s equity market may be approaching a turning point. Our Chief Korea Equity Strategist, Joon Seok, explains that the next cycle will need stronger foundations and more sectors joining in.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Joon Seok, Morgan Stanley’s Chief Korea Equity Strategist.
Today: Why Korea’s equity market may be moving from a sharp reset toward a broader and more sustainable recovery...
When AI Takes Over Shopping Carts
Our analysts Andrew Ruben and Nathan Feather discuss how AI shopping agents could transform how consumers discover, compare and buy products and the implications for eCommerce.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Andrew Ruben: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Ruben, Latin America Retail and E-commerce Analyst at Morgan Stanley.
Nathan Feather: And I'm Nathan Feather, U.S. Small and Mid-Cap Internet Analyst at Morgan Stanley.
Andrew Ruben: Today, what happens when the shopping cart starts thinking for...
The UK Has a Better Story to Tell
Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets examines why investors might be overlooking the stability and performance of UK assets, despite persistent negative sentiment.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.
Today, why the UK may need better PR.
It's Friday, August 14th at 2pm in London.
The last decade has been rough for the United Kingdom. Bre...
Robotaxis’ $1 Trillion Opportunity
Robotaxis are accelerating along the road to commercial viability. Auto and Shared Mobility Analysts Andrew Percoco and Tim Hsiao discuss what this rapid development means for global investors.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Andrew Percoco: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Andrew Percoco, Head of North America Auto and Shared Mobility Research.
Tim Hsiao: And I'm Tim Hsiao, Greater China Auto and Shared Mobility Analyst.
Andrew Percoco: Today, why robotaxis may be approaching a commercial inflection point. It's...
The Potential Way Forward for the U.S.-Iran Standoff
The potential path to a durable U.S.–Iran agreement has twists and obstacles ahead. Our Head of U.S. Public Policy Research Ariana Salvatore discusses current negotiations and the impact of recent developments for investors.
Disclaimer: Important note regarding economic sanctions. This report references jurisdictions which may be the subject of economic sanctions. Readers are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities are carried out in compliance with applicable laws.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Ariana Salvatore: Welcome to Tho...
‘Show Me the Money,’ Market Tells Companies
Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson discusses a new market cycle, in which investors are demanding more than just growth from companies.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist.
Today on the podcast I’ll look at an important shift in what the market wants to see from companies going forward.
It's Tuesday, August 11th at 11:30 am in New...
How AI Could Simplify the Mortgage Market
Our U.S. Consumer Finance Analyst Jay Bacow and our Co-Head of Securitized Product Research Jay Bacow explain why AI can transform the way Americans shop for, manage and refinance their mortgages.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Jeff Adelson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jeff Adelson, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Consumer Finance Analyst.
Jay Bacow: And I'm Jay Bacow, Co-Head of Securitized Products Research, also working at Morgan Stanley.
Jeff Adelson: Today, how AI could change the...
AI’s New Rules of Engagement
Our Head of U.S. Public Policy Research Ariana Salvatore explains how U.S.-China tensions, export controls and domestic regulation are reshaping where AI is built, who controls it and what investors should watch.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Ariana Salvatore: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of U.S. Public Policy Research at Morgan Stanley.
Today, a look at how government is increasingly determining the future of AI in the U.S. – from where it's bui...
Why Brick and Mortar Banking Still Matters
America’s biggest banks are opening more local branches. Our Head of U.S. Large Cap and Mid Cap Banks Research Manan Gosalia looks at the merits of physical locations.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Manan Gosalia: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley's Head of US Large Cap and Mid Cap Banks Research.
Today: why the bank branch you pass on your commute may matter more than you think.
It's Thursday, August 6th at 10am i...
How Long Can the Fed Hold On?
From short-term interest rates to long-term bond yields, the Fed's credibility is being tested. Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets discussed inflation, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's outlook, and the options ahead.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.
Today: Can the Fed hold the line?
It's Wednesday, August 5th at 2pm in London.
The Federal Reserve has...
When a Data Center Comes to Town
Head of US Public Policy Strategy Ariana Salvatore and US Thematic Strategist Michelle Weaver, alongside Senior Economist and Strategist in Morgan Stanley’s Private Wealth Management Sarah Wolfe, examine the economics of the AI datacentre boom, the pushback and the policy implications.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Ariana Salvatore: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of Public Policy Research at Morgan Stanley.
Michelle Weaver: I'm Michelle Weaver, U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist.
Sarah Wolfe: And...
Quality Matters Again
Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why investors should favor quality as the market moves from early-cycle momentum to more disciplined, mid-cycle leadership.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist.
Today on the podcast I’ll be discussing the ongoing transition in the economic recovery from early to mid-cycle.
It's Monday, August 3rd at 11:30 a.m. i...
The Structural Forces Moving Capital
Our Strategist Michelle Weaver talks to Michael Zezas and Jessica Alsford, Co-Directors of the Morgan Stanley Institute, about how AI, energy resilience and industrial policy are changing investment decisions.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist.
Michael Zezas: I'm Michael Zezas, co-director of the Morgan Stanley Institute and Deputy Global Head of Morgan Stanley Research.
Jessica Alsford: And I'm Jessica Alsford, Morgan...
Blind Spots in the AI Infrastructure Selloff
Our Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research Stephen Byrd explains why the recent AI infrastructure selloff may reflect technical pressures, not weakening fundamentals.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Stephen Byrd: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Stephen Byrd, Morgan Stanley’s Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research.
Today: Are investors misreading the AI infrastructure selloff?
It’s Thursday, July 30th, at 10am in New York.
The recent selloff in AI infrastructure stocks has raised...
The Oil Market’s Billion-Barrel Problem
How much runway does the world’s energy market still have? Our Head of Commodity Research Martijn Rats joins our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets to explain what’s causing pressure beyond renewed tensions in the Middle East.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.
Martijn Rats: And I'm Martijn Rats, Head of Commodity Research at Morgan Stanley.
Andr...
Fed in July: A Weaker Case for Hiking
Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach and Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen unpack what is likely to influence this week’s interest rate decision by the Fed.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
----- Transcript -----
Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.
Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.
Matthew Hornbach: Today, will the Fed hold or hike? It's the question in the market right now...
