Excess Returns
Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.
The 100 Year Thinkers: Chris Mayer on SpaceX, AI Reckoning, and Why Early Is Overrated
On this episode of the 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Mayer and Matt Zeigler discuss long-term investing, 100-baggers, AI stocks, SpaceX valuation, founder-led companies, and why the best investments often come with brutal drawdowns. We also cover his new book The Investor's Odyssey, the danger of letting labels like AI do too much work, how to think about TAM and capital allocation, and why patience may be the biggest edge for investors trying to own great businesses for decades.
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The Investor's Odyssey: Res...
We Asked GMO’s Head of Asset Allocation Why This Bubble is Easy — But Investors Will Get it Wrong
Ben Inker of GMO joins Excess Returns to break down whether the AI boom is an investment bubble, how it compares to 2000, 2007 and 2021, and why today’s risk may be more about earnings than valuations. We also discuss AI capital spending, market supply from IPOs, GMO’s seven-year asset class forecasts, international stocks, benchmark-free allocation and what private equity investors may be missing.
7 YEAR ASSET CLASS FORECASThttps://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/gmo-7-year-asset-class-forecast-may-2026_gmo7yearassetclassforecast/
WHAT BARBARIANS LIKE TO TAKE PRIVATEhttps://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/part-1-what-barbarians-like-to-take-private_gmoquarterlyletter/
THE...
Finding Quality Growth in Emerging Markets with Ian Smith
Ian Smith, portfolio manager at William Blair, joins Excess Returns to break down emerging markets, global diversification, and why EM may offer a very different opportunity set than US stocks. We discuss AI capex, the role of Korea, Taiwan, China and India, the impact of the dollar, quality investing, valuation, and how active investors can think about opportunity in a world shaped by AI disruption and geopolitical change.
William Blair Investment Management
https://im.williamblair.com/
The Problem With Quality
https://im.williamblair.com/insights/articles/the-problem-with-quality
Topics covered:
...
The $2 Trillion Question | Tobias Carlisle on SpaceX, the AI Buildout, and the Rotation No One Sees
Tobias Carlisle joins Excess Returns to discuss why today’s market may be setting up a major opportunity in value stocks, small caps and micro caps. We cover stretched market valuations, AI capex, SpaceX and other massive IPOs, the risk of speculative growth assumptions, and how Tobias builds systematic deep value portfolios in ZIG and DEEP.
Tobias Carlisle on X
https://x.com/Greenbackd
Acquirers Funds
https://acquirersfunds.com/
Topics covered:
Why elevated market valuations point to lower forward returns, not necessarily an immediate exit from stocks
Th...
The Trillion Dollar Gap | Aswath Damodaran on SpaceX, AI and the Big Market Delusion
Professor Aswath Damodaran joins Kai Wu on The Intangible Economy to break down how to value SpaceX, AI companies, intangible assets, and the future of value investing.
We discuss why big markets do not automatically create big value, how AI CapEx is changing the character of major technology companies, and why the best investment stories still have to connect to the numbers.
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Topics covered:
Valuing SpaceX after its IPO and why price matters even for great companies
How Starlink, space launch, and xAI...
Andy Constan on the SpaceX IPO, AI CapEx, and the End of the Buyback Tailwind
In the third episode of First Principles with Andy Constan, Andy breaks down the changing structure of markets as the IPO window reopens, AI CapEx accelerates, and corporate buybacks shift toward new equity supply. We discuss what the SpaceX IPO says about capital markets, whether AI spending can create disinflationary growth, why the consumer is still holding up, and what could challenge the current market bubble.
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Topics covered:
Why IPOs are central to the purpose of public markets
...
The SpaceX IPO Meets a Huge Options Expiration | Brent Kochuba on What Comes Next
In this episode of The OPEX Effect, Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba break down the market structure impact of the SpaceX IPO, options expiration, dealer gamma, volatility, and the next major setup for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. They discuss why SpaceX may trade more on flows than fundamentals, how call buying could create a gamma squeeze, and why June OPEX, VIX expiration, FOMC, oil, Iran headlines, and index inclusion could all collide at once.
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Topics covered:
Why Sp...
Mike Green on What Happens When Passive Flows Meet the Largest IPO in History
Mike Green joins Excess Returns to explain why passive investing, index construction, SpaceX, AI IPOs and mega-cap concentration may be changing how the stock market actually works. We discuss how passive flows can affect prices, why AI earnings may be more circular than investors think, what could break the current market narrative, and why the economy feels much weaker for many households than the headline data suggests.
Michael Green Twitter
https://x.com/profplum99
Simplify Asset Management
https://www.simplify.us/
Topics covered:
Why the SpaceX IPO has turned...
We Asked Vanguard’s Chief Economist Why AI Has Two Huge Tails — And Which One Wins
AI could become the next general purpose technology, reshaping economic growth, inflation, interest rates and portfolio construction. Vanguard Global Chief Economist Joe Davis joins Excess Returns to explain why AI, demographics, fiscal deficits and globalization may define the next decade for investors, and why the biggest market winners may eventually come from outside the technology sector.
Coming into View: How AI and Other Megatrends Will Shape Your Investmentshttps://amzn.to/4v8L7OfVanguard Megatrends Research Hubhttps://explore.vanguard.com/megatrends.html
Topics Covered:
AI as a potential general purpose technology
Why long-term...
The SpaceX IPO… What Happens When $1.75 Trillion Meets 4% Float
On the latest Click Beta, Matt Zeigler, Dave Nadig and Cameron Dawson discuss what could happen when SpaceX goes public and why this IPO may be as much a market structure problem as a valuation problem.
They break down the potential impact of a $1.75 trillion IPO, 100 times sales, a small free float, forced index buying, passive fund flows, options trading, bubble dynamics and what advisors should tell clients who want SpaceX exposure.
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Dave Nadig
https://x.com/dave...
Tech Spending Has a Cash Problem | Jim Paulsen on the Two Signals That Could Trigger a Correction
Jim Paulsen returns to Excess Returns to discuss why he is increasingly concerned about a meaningful stock market pullback, even though he does not expect a bear market. We cover the extreme divide between AI-driven “new era” stocks and the rest of the market, what oil and inflation could mean for the Fed, why tech earnings and market leadership have become so concentrated, and what investors should watch as the economy potentially shifts from inflation fears to growth fears.
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He Quantified 200 Years of Disruption | Kai Wu on Separating Software Survivors from Value Traps
Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital joins Excess Returns to break down his latest research on AI disruption, software stocks, value traps, and intangible moats. We discuss why software valuations have collapsed, why traditional value investing can fail during technological disruption, and how investors can separate potential AI winners from companies whose business models may be permanently impaired.
AI Disruption: Moats and Value Traps
https://www.sparklinecapital.com/post/ai-disruption
Kai Wu on X
https://x.com/ckaiwu
Sparkline Capital
https://www.sparklinecapital.com/
Topics Covered:
Why...
The Three Cracks in the AI Trade | Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba and Aahan Menon on What Could Derail the Market's Biggest Bet
In this episode of Last Call, we break down one of the most confusing market backdrops in years: AI-driven earnings optimism, rising oil and inflation risk, stretched options positioning, and the market impact of a potential SpaceX IPO. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler are joined by Aahan Menon, Ben Hunt, and Brent Kochuba to examine what macro data, political narratives, options flows, and index mechanics are saying about where markets could go next.
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Topics Covered:
Why markets are looking through war, oil shocks and va...
Cheap Is a Warning, Not a Thesis | Adam Parker on What This Market Is Really Pricing
Adam Parker returns to Excess Returns to explain why the market may be trading more on future fundamentals than investors think, how AI is reshaping stock selection, and why traditional valuation signals may be less useful than they once were.
We discuss AI revenue exposure, software vs. semiconductors, Mag Seven positioning, gross margins, estimate achievability, spinoffs, and Adam’s highest-conviction contrarian sector idea.
Adam Parker on X
https://x.com/Adam_Parker_Tri
Trivariate Research
https://trivariateresearch.com/
Trivector Research
https://www.trivectorresearch.com
Topics covered:
...He Built the Fund He'd Hold 30 Years | Eric Crittenden on What Investors Pick When Labels Come Off
Eric Crittenden joins Matt Zeigler and Jason Buck for a deep dive into trend following and managed futures.
They discuss why systematic macro trend investing works, how risk transfer creates a return premium, and how trend can fit inside a diversified all-weather portfolio.
Standpoint Funds
https://www.standpointfunds.com/
Topics covered:
Why trend following can struggle during fast reversals and thrive after regime shifts
How systematic investors manage whipsaws, drawdowns, and emotional pressure
The trade-offs between short-term, medium-term, and long-term trend signals
Why...
Cliff Asness on Bubbles, Private Equity and His Research Greatest Hits
Cliff Asness returns to Excess Returns for a greatest hits tour through some of his most important and entertaining investing ideas.
We discuss bubble logic, today’s AI market comparisons, why volatility still matters as a risk measure, private equity “volatility laundering,” international diversification, market timing myths, pulling the goalie, and how machine learning is changing quantitative investing.
Cliff Asness on X
https://x.com/CliffordAsness
AQR Capital Management
https://www.aqr.com/
Papers Discussed
Bubble Logic: Or, How to Learn to Stop Worrying and Love the Bull
He Studied Every Bear Market Since 1929 | Ben Carlson on How the Worst Starting Point Still Made 8%
Ben Carlson joins Excess Returns to discuss his new book Risk and Reward and the biggest lessons investors can learn from market history. We cover how to think about risk, inflation, market timing, bear markets, lost decades, diversification, compounding and why surviving volatility is the key to building long-term wealth.
Ben's Book
https://amzn.to/4dFHsQz
Ben Carlson on X
https://x.com/awealthofcs
Ben's Blog
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/
Main topics covered:
Why risk is hard to define and always involves trade-offs
How vivid...
Is AI Still in 1995? Gene Munster and Doug Clinton on the Next Phase of the AI Boom
AI is moving from hype to real enterprise adoption, and Gene Munster and Doug Clinton join Excess Returns to explain what that means for investors, technology stocks, energy demand, jobs and the next phase of the AI trade. We discuss why AI may still be early in its bubble cycle, how frontier models like GPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok compare, why AI-powered investing is becoming more practical, and where the biggest second-order opportunities may emerge.
Gene Munster on X
https://x.com/munster_gene
Doug Clinton on X
https://x.com/dougclinton
Jeremy Grantham on AI, Bubbles and Why Mean Reversion Lives On
Jeremy Grantham joins Excess Returns to discuss The Making of a Permabear, mean reversion, market bubbles, AI, the Magnificent 7, and the long-term lessons investors can take from his career at GMO. We cover why he rejects the simple “permabear” label, how he thinks about valuation and bubbles, why AI may be both transformative and dangerous for investors, and why long-term thinking is so hard but so essential.
The Making of a Permabear: The Perils of Long-term Investing in a Short-term World
https://groveatlantic.com/book/the-making-of-a-permabear/
GMO
https://www.gmo.com/americas/
Gr...
He Studied the Financial System for Decades | Marc Rubinstein on Where the Real Risk Is
Marc Rubinstein joins Excess Returns to explain what private credit, bank earnings, insurance balance sheets, fintech growth, and arbitrage firms reveal about the modern financial system. The conversation covers why private credit risks may not be systemic in the traditional banking-crisis sense, but still matter for investors because of redemption gates, hidden leverage, opaque structures, incentive conflicts, and correlations that can spike when markets are under stress.
Marc Rubinstein on X
https://x.com/MarcRuby
Net Interest
https://www.netinterest.co/
In this episode, we discuss:
Why the Fed...
Lessons from Investing Through Bubble Regimes with Andy Constan
First Principles with Andy Constan launches with a deep dive into market bubbles, AI, semiconductor stocks, and the financial conditions that can turn powerful technological change into a dangerous investment regime. Andy explains how bubbles form, why they are almost impossible to time, how today’s AI boom compares to past episodes like 1987, the dot-com bubble, housing, and the bond bubble, and what investors should watch as expectations, financing, and FOMO build.
Andy Constan on X
https://x.com/dampedspring
Damped Spring Advisors
https://dampedspring.com/
Topics covered:
Why bu...
He Wrote the Book on Bubbles | Edward Chancellor on If AI is Different
Edward Chancellor joins Kai Wu on the latest episode of the Intangible Economy to discuss what financial history and capital cycle theory can teach investors about today’s AI boom. They explore why transformative technologies can still produce terrible investor returns, how overinvestment develops, where anti-bubbles may be forming, and what past episodes like the railway mania, the dot-com bubble, China’s investment boom and the post-2008 interest rate regime suggest about the risks and opportunities today.
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Topics covered:
How capital cycle theory applies to the AI d...
We Asked an Options Expert Why This Melt Up Hasn’t Broken — and Which Signal Could End It
Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma joins Jack Forehand for the May 2026 OPEX Effect to break down what options positioning is saying after a massive AI and semiconductor-led market rally. They discuss SPX call volume, zero DTE options, dealer gamma, VIX expiration, NVIDIA earnings, oil risk, AI CapEx, and why options flows may help explain both the market’s recent melt-up and the potential for a volatility shift after OPEX.
Guest Links
Brent Kochuba on X
https://x.com/spotgamma
SpotGamma
https://spotgamma.com/
Topics Covered
Why the market ha...
We Asked a $4.5B Quant Manager Why the S&P 500 Is Just 46 Stocks — and Why Small Caps Aren't Dead
Elena Khoziaeva, Co-Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager at Bridgeway Capital Management, joins Excess Returns to discuss factor investing, small caps, value investing, market concentration, intangibles, passive investing, market neutral strategies, and the role of AI in quantitative investment research.
We cover how Bridgeway combines disciplined quantitative models with human judgment, why the S&P 500 may be less diversified than investors think, and how investors can think about diversification when mega-cap growth stocks dominate market returns.
Bridgeway Capital Management
https://bridgeway.com/
I Know What You Did Last Summer
https://bridgeway...
The Last Moat | Chris Mayer and Ian Cassel on the Stock Picking Edge AI Can’t Replicate
This episode of our new showThe 100 Year Thinkers brings together Chris Mayer and Ian Cassel for a deep discussion on long-term stock picking, microcap investing, business quality, AI disruption, management teams, and the behavioral skills that separate great investors from great analysts.
They explore why the edge in investing may increasingly come from judgment, presence, relationships, patience, and the ability to hold the right businesses through uncertainty.
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Topics Covered
Why being present with management teams may stil...
We Asked Rich Bernstein and Chris Davis Why This Market Isn’t as Safe as It Feels
This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap examines what Chris Davis and Rich Bernstein can teach investors about letting winners run, inflation risk, market concentration, dividends, AI, and the difference between economic stories and investment returns. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down clips on portfolio concentration, the 1960s vs. the 1970s, investor complacency, the Fed’s inflation target, durable businesses, and where the next market opportunity may be hiding.
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Topics Covered
Why letting winners run can be so powerful, but so hard for professional inve...
We Asked Ben Hunt, Jim Paulsen, Kevin Muir and Brent Kochuba Why Bad News Can’t Break This Market
This episode of Last Call breaks down one of the most confusing market environments in recent memory: why stocks continue to rise despite war, oil shocks, and growing macro risks. Through conversations with Jim Paulsen, Ben Hunt, Kevin Muir, and Brent Kochuba, we explore the tension between strong earnings, hidden risks in private credit and global growth, and the powerful role of flows and positioning in driving markets higher.
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Topics Covered
Why markets are ignoring war, oil...
The Opportunity No One Sees | Richard Bernstein on Finding Value in a Narrow Market
This episode explores one of the most important debates in markets today: whether investors are underestimating the risk of higher inflation and overconcentrating in a narrow group of growth stocks.
Richard Bernstein of Janus Henderson Investors joins Excess Returns to explain why today’s environment may look more like the inflationary 1960s than the 1970s, what that means for portfolios, and why many investors may be disappointed with passive index returns over the next decade.
Richard walks through the implications of rising import prices, global conflict, and deglobalization, and how these forces could drive a st...
Feeling Safe Is the Risk | Chris Davis on Finding Durable Companies in a Disrupted World
This episode with Chris Davis of Davis Advisors explores how investors should think about risk, valuation, and opportunity in a market defined by high valuations, technological disruption, and major macro shifts. Davis lays out a framework for navigating uncertainty, explains why durability matters more than ever, and shares hard-earned lessons on selling great companies too early.
Davis Advisors
https://www.davisadvisors.com
Topics Covered
Why high valuations signal complacency even in an uncertain macro environment
The three major forces reshaping markets: higher cost of capital, deglobalization, and AI
...
Buy High, Sell Higher | Travis Prentice on Dispersion, Passive's Structural Risk and Why 52 Week Highs Don't Mean What You Think
This episode explores how massive structural shifts—AI, deglobalization, and the rise of passive investing—are reshaping markets and what that means for investors.
Informed Momentum Company CIO Travis Prentice breaks down why 52 week highs don't mean what you think, the extreme dispersion beneath the surface of the market, why traditional definitions of risk may be flawed, and how investors should think about momentum, quality, and diversification in a rapidly changing environment.
Papers and Resources Discussed:
Risks Hiding in Plain Sight
https://www.informedmomentum.com/risks-hiding-in-plain-sight-how-the-dominance-of-passive-investing-is-reshaping-market-risk/
Is Quality Broken?
http...
The Secular Plateau | Chris Bloomstran on Why We May Be at Peak Valuations
This episode features Chris Bloomstran of Semper Augustus discussing market concentration, AI capital spending, Berkshire Hathaway, and the risks facing today’s equity investors. The conversation explores whether we are at a secular valuation plateau, how AI investment may reshape returns, and why passive investors may face more risk than they realize.
Semper Augustus Investments
https://www.semperaugustus.com
Topics covered:
Why extreme market concentration in the Mag 7 may create long-term risks
The concept of a “secular plateau” vs a market peak
How AI capex could become a classi...
We Asked David Rosenberg Why He Owns Almost No US Stocks — and What He Holds Instead
This episode features David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research, breaking down why today’s market may be driven more by valuation excess and investor behavior than fundamentals. He explains why the biggest risks right now are not obvious in headline data, and why the probability distribution for markets may be far more fragile than investors assume.
Rosenberg walks through his framework for thinking in probabilities, how AI-driven productivity is distorting economic signals, why the equity market is now driving the economy, and what a “silent contraction” beneath the surface could mean for growth, inflation, and returns. He also o...
The Resilience No One Trusts | Brent Donnelly on Why War and Oil Haven’t Broken This Market
Brent Donnelly returns to Excess Returns to break down one of the most confusing market environments in years, where policy shocks, volatility, and positioning matter more than traditional fundamentals. He explains why markets can keep rising despite constant bad news, how traders should think about regime shifts, and what actually drives moves across equities, bonds, FX, and gold today.
Brent also shares practical insights from his trading process, including risk management, journaling, and how to think about positioning and asymmetric opportunities. The conversation spans macro frameworks, behavioral pitfalls, and the evolving nature of market edges, offering a...
The Bear Market No One Sees | Liz Ann Sonders on the Real Story Indexes Hide
Liz Ann Sonders of Schwab joins Excess Returns to break down how war, an oil shock, and shifting market dynamics are reshaping the investing landscape. She explains why the surface-level strength in markets is misleading, what’s really happening beneath the index, and how investors should think about inflation, the Fed, AI, and the evolving role of retail traders.
Follow Liz Ann on Twitter
https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders
Liz Ann's Research and Commentaryhttps://www.schwab.com/learn/author/liz-ann-sondersTopics Covered
How war and oil shocks are impacting markets, inflation, and Fed policy
...The Forever Invariable Truth | Jim Grant on War, Inflation, and What Comes Next
This episode features Jim Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer on inflation, war, monetary policy, and the long arc of credit cycles. Grant explains why inflation is ultimately driven by monetary debasement and why war, fiscal policy, and central bank actions may be setting the stage for a more persistent inflationary regime than markets expect.
We explore how today’s environment compares to past inflationary periods, the hidden risks in credit markets and public debt, and what history teaches us about AI investment booms, oil shocks, and monetary disruption. Grant also discusses trust in financial systems, the...
The Market the Tweets Can’t Break | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next
Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Spotify
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This episode of The Opex Effect breaks down why markets have remained surprisingly resilient despite geopolitical chaos, an oil shock, and extreme headline risk. Brent Kochuba joins Jack Forehand to analyze what’s really driving the market beneath the surface—from options flows and gamma positioning to the collapse in volatility and what it signals for the next move.
They explore how the options market is shaping price action in ways most investors miss, why the VIX collapsed despite elev...
The Risk at the End of the Whip | GMO’s Tom Hancock on Finding Conviction Amid the AI Hype
This episode of Excess Returns features GMO’s Tom Hancock on how to think about AI as an investment opportunity and what truly defines “quality” in today’s market. The conversation breaks down the AI value chain, challenges common assumptions about where value will accrue, and ties it all back to building durable portfolios in a rapidly changing technological landscape.
Tom walks through his “Hype vs High Conviction” framework, explaining why identifying the right layer of the AI ecosystem may matter more than simply betting on the theme itself, and why balance sheets, durability, and capital allocation remain criti...
The Walmart Indicator Just Hit 2008 Levels | Jim Paulsen on the Big Difference This Time
This episode of Excess Returns features Jim Paulsen breaking down the current macro environment through a series of powerful indicators, including oil, interest rates, consumer behavior, and market sentiment. The discussion explores whether today’s environment signals a slowing economy—or the early stages of a new bull market hidden beneath the surface.
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Jim walks through a wide range of charts and frameworks, from the Walmart vs. luxury retail s...
The Inevitability No One Sees | $11 Billion Tech Manager on What Investors Miss About AI
This episode of Excess Returns features Tony Wang of T. Rowe Price discussing how investors can identify “inevitabilities” in technology and position portfolios to benefit from long-term innovation trends. The conversation explores AI, semiconductors, and the evolving investment landscape, while also breaking down Tony’s portfolio construction process and how he navigates cycles, valuation, and disruption risk.
Tony explains why AI is fundamentally changing the cost of intelligence, how agentic systems could reshape software and labor markets, and why the current AI buildout may differ from past tech cycles. The discussion also dives into where we are in the...
The Signal Before the Spike | Katie Stockton on What the Charts Tell Us About What Comes Next
This episode explores the growing signs of a shift beneath the surface of the market, as technical indicators point to weakening momentum in equities and a potential change in leadership. Katie Stockton joins the show to break down what recent signals in the S&P 500, oil, gold, and sector rotation are telling us about where markets may be headed next.
We cover the implications of a new monthly MACD sell signal, the importance of market breadth and leadership, and how investors can interpret shifting trends across asset classes using a disciplined technical framework.
