More or Less

Witches and witchcraft have captivated people for centuries. From the curse tablets of Ancient Greece to the witch of Wookey Hole, belief in magic has long been woven into human culture.

But accusations of witchcraft have also had deadly consequences. Across Europe, tens of thousands of people were investigated, prosecuted and executed during the witch trials that swept the continent peaking during the late 16th and early 17th centuries.

One statistic is repeated again and again: that nine million people were killed during the witch trials. But where does that figure come from, and does...

Terence Tao is widely celebrated as the world’s greatest living mathematician.

He was doing university-level maths at the age of 9, won Gold at the International Mathematical Olympiad at 13 - still the youngest person to have done that - and got his PHD at age 20.

At 31 he won the Fields Medal - somewhat equivalent to a Nobel Prize for pure mathematics. He has now embarked on what some might consider the greatest challenge of his life - he’s written a book for a general audience, called Six Maths Essentials.

This provided the oppo...

Last week, Ukraine launched drone attacks against three data centres owned by Russian tech giant Yandex. After these attacks Yandex announced that they were struggling to maintain their services.

This led to widespread claims that Russian disinformation campaign on social media had been affected, as users produced graphs that they argued showed a dramatic decline in suspicious online activity by bots.

The claim was even made by the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenksy, saying there was “less hate” online as a result of the strikes. But as the dust settled, it became clear that this wasn’t the...

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:40) First Minister John Swinney has claimed that Scottish pensioners are set to lose £2000, with the money going to fund English social care. We gently suggest he might like to consider the existence of the Barnett formula, and explain that, when you do, the picture looks very different.

(06:08 ) The Liberal Democrats have dug out data on maternity injuries that they claim is ‘a shocking indictment of our NHS maternity services’. We explore flaws in their analysis and ask an expert what a better source of da...

A viral video circulating online claims the population of China is actually a billion people lower than the UN and China say.

A billion is big number, you'd think the Chinese would notice if that many were missing - and the claim is certainly false.

However, as the team dug into the stats, a strange story emerged - which suggests the official data on births and fertility may not be quite as reliable as you might think.

We spoke to demographer Professor Sabu Padmadas from the University of Southampton to find out more. <...

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: (00:42) Is the UK uniquely miserly when it comes to the state pension? That’s the story a viral social media post is telling - but have they adjusted to account for complicated structural differences between national systems? Reader, they have not.

(07:23) In a podcast feud nobody saw coming, Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg and Tucker Carlson recently locked horns over whether Russia or UK has a larger economy. Who's right? Only one person can possibly adjudicate this one: Duncan Weldon.

(15:06) What effect did this year’s he...

How much could climate change cost the global economy?

That would be a very useful thing to know, and scientists have developed statistical models that they think can help give a reasonable answer. These involve finding the patterns in economic data associated with temperature changes - and then applying them to the future changes that are predicted as the globe warms.

In 2024, a scientific paper was published that apparently offered the most accurate projection yet of that potential cost - analysing the impact of temperature on economic activity at a far more granular level than...

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:40) Does the UK account for nine out of ten of the poorest regions in Northern Europe? It’s a classic story of devil meets detail where the true meaning is the geographical inequality we met along the way.

(07:54) An article in The Economist has claimed that a single donkey charity in Devon received more in annual donations than all the major political parties combined. Is this true? And if so, should we be Led By Donkeys?

(11:29) Last week 781 migrants crossed the ch...

US president Donald Trump has claimed in a speech to the UN that the US and Venezuela combined now have 60% of the world’s oil. 100% of the team on More or Less were confused.

What measurement was the president using to get to this figure? Barrels of oil produced a day? Reserves of oil in the ground? It’s hard to make any of these stats add up.

To find out whether there was any truth in the claim, we spoke to energy expert Bill Farren-Price of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

If y...

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:42) Frustrated economists have been left rending their garments and howling in the streets after the UK’s ‘productivity puzzle’ - a decade-long head-scratching, soul-searching conundrum - disappeared with a click of the fingers and a tweak of the methodology. Should the Office for National Statistics have acted sooner? We ask Financial Times economic guru Chris Giles.

(07:26) Can it really be true that by the 1960s, one in ten Irish children entered religious orders? Reporter Lizzy McNeill has the answer, and the history.

(13...

Are fruit and vegetables less nutritious than they used to be? And is declining soil quality to blame? Loyal listener Sarah got in touch to ask us to investigate an interesting quote from Dr Karan Rajan in a BBC news story. “We know our soil is not as nutrient dense as it was decades ago,” he said. “So a carrot in the 1950s will be far more nutrient-rich than a 2026 carrot.” Is this really true? wondered Sarah. We wondered the same, so we spoke to some experts on fruit and veg nutrition to find out.

CONTRIBUTORS Robin  Marles, a...

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:33) Are crumbling teeth the number one reason children attend A&E? We drill down into the dental health of the nation’s kids.

(08:20) The US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee has claimed that a quarter of pharmaceuticals used in the UK come from Israel. We check the facts.

(13:20) Is former Education Secretary Michael Gove responsible for increasing number of young people not in education, employment or training?

(20:11) An AI researcher has caused a global firestorm by suggesting there’s more...

Every year, climate scientists keep a close eye on data coming out of a particular area of the Pacific Ocean. They’re trying to measure the scale of a climate phenomenon - the El Niño event or effect. This is a naturally occurring phenomenon where ocean surface temperatures rise, transferring warmth from the ocean to the atmosphere. This can drive up global temperatures but also play havoc with weather systems, with profound consequences. And this year, scientists have watched with ever-widening eyes, as their projections for the peak of this year’ El Niño event have come in unprec...

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:38) The number of people being recalled to prison after early release in England and Wales is rising sharply. Why?

(07:37) Is the UK millionaire an endangered species? We ask Duncan Weldon - he’s like David Attenborough, but for economics.

(14:21) A viral graph seems to show that Europe is having a record low year for wildfires. How can we reconcile this with this summer’s shocking coverage of fires in France and Spain?

(21:36) We all know seagulls are low-life thieves - bu...

Can it really be true that every shuffle of a deck of cards is unique? Mathematician and stand-up comedian Matt Parker claims that every time you do a shuffle, the cards have never been in that order before. But how can he be so confident? Matt came into the studio armed with a deck of cards and some very big calculations to back up his big assertion, and introduced us to the mind-splitting mathematical world of factorials and combinatorics. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Sound engineer: James Beard Programme co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Editor: Richard...

What's this, an extra podcast? Has Christmas come early?

No, the Bayeux Tapestry has instead returned to England for the first time in almost 1000 years.

To mark the occasion, we've compiled six snack-sized stats all about the Norman invasion of England to help you have something to talk about in various social situations such a pub quizzes, movie nights and awkwardly quiet lifts.

From horses to the Harrying of the North, it's all here.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Tom Colls, Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator...

How do different countries compare, in terms of the amount of time that workers take as sick leave?

Loyal listener Dave got in touch to ask us to look at a surprising statistic he saw in the news – that the average German takes 19.5 days of sick leave per year.

“This is extremely hard to believe,” he wrote.

We track down the – highly reliable – source of the claim, and look at the differences between countries when it comes to taking time of work with illness.

To guide us through it all is Lukas Lehn...

Sometimes world events of massive practical significance lead our minds towards some lovely impractical thoughts. So it was for loyal listener, Nigel.

Pondering the conflict in Iran, and the maritime ownership of the Straits of Hormuz that has become its focus, his mind wandered to an altogether bigger and - honestly - far less important question.

“How much of the world surface actually doesn't belong to anyone?” he wondered.

To try and answer Nigel’s question, we enlisted the help of Mark Cooper-Jones, one half of YouTube duo Map Men.

If you’ve...

As part of their mandate to stop 'waste, fraud and abuse' in federal government spending, DOGE, the department of Government Efficiency, made large cuts to the amount of money the US spent on foreign aid.

The task force, headed by Elon Musk, effectively dismantled the US's largest foreign aid agency, USAID - cancelling many of its programmes and absorbing the remainder into the State Department.

This has caused controversy in some circles, with researchers estimating that the cuts could result in the loss of 14 million lives by 2030. Musk strenuously denies this, stating that cuts made...

Earlier this year, South African-born tech tycoon Elon Musk briefly became the world’s first dollar trillionaire.

This prompted loyal listener Stephen to email the More or Less team, to ask us to investigate something his daughter had been pondering: For all Musk’s vast wealth, what does it equate to as a proportion of all the wealth in the world?

How much of all the money does Elon Musk have?

We set about trying to figure this out, with the help of Robin Wigglesworth, author of A Fabulous Debt and journalist at the...

If you had a choice between instantly receiving £50,000 or a 50% chance to win £1m, which would you pick?

When YouGov asked exactly that question to people in the UK, 73% said they would take the £50,000, while 21% opted for the 50/50 chance of winning £1m.

As you may or may not have imagined, this finding provoked outrage on Twitter, with people saying the UK appeared incredibly risk averse. “This is what’s wrong with Britain,” wrote celebrity polling analyst and More or Less interviewee Nate Silver.

But is the result surprising, when you know a bit more about...

The crime rate in London has been cropping up regularly on social media and in political discussions - US president Donald Trump has claimed that crime in the city is ‘through the roof’.

But what does the data tell us?

Professor Matt Ashby, from University College London’s Centre for Global City Policing, has put together statistics that allow you to start to compare crime rates between cities around the world. That evidence shows London in a different light, in terms of murder and other violent crimes.

If you see any stats you think...

As the 2026 World Cup approaches its end, what is the biggest factor in who wins? Is it extraordinary moments of attacking magic? Gritty defensive organisation? Or is it all just a question of luck and random chance? We look at how mathematicians and analysists make sense of chaos, xG and unpredictability in the beautiful game. If you've seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the team: [email protected] CONTRIBUTORS: Ian Graham, former Head of Research at Liverpool FC David Sumpter, Professor of Applied Mathematics at Uppsala University Luis Nunes...

As the 2026 World Cup approaches its end, what is the biggest factor in who wins? Is it extraordinary moments of attacking magic? Gritty defensive organisation? Or is it all just a question of luck and random chance? We look at how mathematicians and analysists make sense of chaos, xG and unpredictability in the beautiful game. If you've seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the team: [email protected] CONTRIBUTORS: Ian Graham, former Head of Research at Liverpool FC David Sumpter, Professor of Applied Mathematics at Uppsala University Luis Nunes...

Recently a post did the rounds on Twitter, claiming that people who play tennis live on average 9.7 years longer than people who play other sports.

The figure comes from a recent analysis of people's exercise habits in Denmark.

But not everyone on Twitter was convinced. Tennis is a sport that in many countries is expensive to play and so attracts wealthier players. Couldn't it be the players' socio-economic status driving the trend?

We speak to medical statistician Adam Jacobs, to understand what the study in question can, and cannot, say for certain.

Recently a post did the rounds on Twitter, claiming that people who play tennis live on average 9.7 years longer than people who play other sports.

The figure comes from a recent analysis of people's exercise habits in Denmark.

But not everyone on Twitter was convinced. Tennis is a sport that in many countries is expensive to play and so attracts wealthier players. Couldn't it be the players' socio-economic status driving the trend?

We speak to medical statistician Adam Jacobs, to understand what the study in question can, and cannot, say for certain.

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:32) A government minister has informed the nation that average teacher pay in England is around £54,000. Radio 4 listeners are howling at the radio in disbelief. Surely someone from the IFS would be able to explain all this? We interview someone from the IFS to explain all this.

(06:32) The Independent says that Russian soldiers survive an average of 20 minutes when they get to the frontline. How can they possibly know? We take a peek into the murky information ecosystem that surrounds the war in Ukraine.

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:32) A government minister has informed the nation that average teacher pay in England is around £54,000. Radio 4 listeners are howling at the radio in disbelief. Surely someone from the IFS would be able to explain all this? We interview someone from the IFS to explain all this.

(06:32) A headline in the Independent suggests that Russian soldiers survive an average of 20 minutes when they get to the front line, citing a historian, citing Russian bloggers. Is the number a good one? We take a peek i...

The Moon is one of the most captivating features of our night's sky, and apparently, one of the most suspicious.... For thousands of years, people have blamed the full moon for strange behavior. From ancient myths and the origins of the word lunacy to modern police folklore, the idea that a bright moon can influence human actions is one that many believe. But what does the data tell us? We spoke to Professor Eric Chudler, who has looked at crime rates and lunar cycles to discover whether the moon truly is the ultimate crime puppeteer. If you spot any...

The Moon is one of the most captivating features of our night's sky, and apparently, one of the most suspicious.... For thousands of years, people have blamed the full moon for strange behavior. From ancient myths and the origins of the word lunacy to modern police folklore, the idea that a bright moon can influence human actions is one that many believe. But what does the data tell us? We spoke to Professor Eric Chudler, who has looked at crime rates and lunar cycles to discover whether the moon truly is the ultimate crime puppeteer. If you spot any...

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:23) Andy Burnham may not be Prime Minister yet, but he’s setting out his economic agenda, and its based on his old stomping ground, Greater Manchester. We ask whether the official figures that seem to show an economic miracle can be fully believed, and how much credit he deserves.

(10:09) As our towns and cities get hotter, would turning to air conditioning really drive outside temperatures up by 10 to 12 degrees celcius? We learn about the fascinating world of ‘urban heat islands’.

(15:40) We turn t...

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:23) Andy Burnham may not be Prime Minister yet, but he’s setting out his economic agenda, and its based on his old stomping ground, Greater Manchester. We ask whether the official figures that seem to show an economic miracle can be fully believed, and how much credit he deserves.

(10:09) As our towns and cities get hotter, would turning to air conditioning really drive outside temperatures up by 10 to 12 degrees celcius? We learn about the fascinating world of ‘urban heat islands’.

(15:40) We turn t...

This year, the UK has had its hottest May and June days on record, with the mercury hitting the high thirties.

But while the markings on a thermometer seem scientific and regular, the way we split up our calendar does not. Why, for instance, does May have 31 days and June have 30?

To find out why our calendar has its modern form, we speak to Kristen Lippincott, former director of the Royal Observatory at Greenwich, and author of The Story of Time.

If you have seen a number in the news you think we...

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:42) Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Sir Jeremy Hunt argues that you can earn far more on out of work benefits than you can on the minimum wage. We argue his figures are deceptive - and we’ve done the homework to prove it.

(09:09) As the heatwave rises to a crescendo, people are saying that wet bulb temperatures could hit critical levels. Utterly mystified? So was our editor, so we made this item to explain all to him (and you).

(14:34) In a to...

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:42) Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Sir Jeremy Hunt argues that you can earn far more on out of work benefits than you can on the minimum wage. We argue his figures are deceptive - and we’ve done the homework to prove it.

(09:09) As the heatwave rises to a crescendo, people are saying that wet bulb temperatures could hit critical levels. Utterly mystified? So was our editor, so we made this item to explain all to him (and you).

(14:34) In a to...

This surprising claim was spotted circulating on social media: ‘The United States has surpassed China and North Korea in deaths from malnutrition’. The claim used analysis from the Global Burden of Disease database for their sums. The data does indeed show that the US records more deaths from Malnutrition than China and North Korea. The rate in the US was 2.8 deaths per 100,000 compared to just 1.7 deaths per 100,000 for North Korea. From what we know about the two countries this seems unlikely, so what’s going on here? We talk to Dr Krstina Newport, Chief Medical officer for the American Academ...

This surprising claim was spotted circulating on social media: 'The United States has surpassed China and North Korea in deaths from malnutrition’. The claim used analysis from the Global Burden of Disease database for their sums. The data does indeed show that the US records more deaths from malnutrition than China and North Korea. The rate in the US was 2.8 deaths per 100,000 compared to just 1.7 deaths per 100,000 for North Korea. From what we know about the two countries this seems unlikely, so what’s going on here? We talk to Dr Krstina Newport, chief medical officer for the American Acad...

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:31) Claims have circulated on the internet that Europe sees a particularly high number of deaths from heat waves, especially when compared to the US. Can we really compare the statistics, and is air conditioning a silver bullet?

(06:59) Sainsbury’s are making the switch from brown to white eggs, on the basis of claims about their carbon footprint - but how do you work this out? We talk to an egg man about eggs. A lot.

(13:56) Are Conservative MPs frit? That’s what...

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:31) Claims have circulated on the internet that Europe sees a particularly high number of deaths from heat waves, especially when compared to the US. Can we really compare the statistics, and is air conditioning a silver bullet?

(06:59) Sainsbury’s are making the switch from brown to white eggs, on the basis of claims about their carbon footprint - but how do you work this out? We talk to an egg man about eggs. A lot.

(13:56) Are Conservative MPs frit? That’s what...

The Great Crash of 1929 has faded into history, but financial journalist and author Andrew Ross Sorkin argues it holds vital lessons for today.

Andrew came into the studio in London to discuss what we can understand about the crash in numbers, from ticker-tape running hours behind plunging stock prices to crucial metrics that sound the alarm bells before a financial crisis. Are they sounding today, in the middle of an AI stockmarket boom?

Andrew’s new book is ’1929: Inside the Crash’.

Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Producer: Nathan Gower Editor: Richard Vadon ...