Balance of Power

Insight & analysis on the White House and Capitol Hill.

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President Donald Trump claimed the US had “total control over the Hormuz Strait,” as Washington and Tehran hardened their positions in deadlocked negotiations over the critical waterway.

“We own it,” Trump told reporters at Joint Base Andrews outside Washington late Tuesday, an assertion Iran has dispelled via intermittent attacks on ships transiting the passage. “At some point, maybe they’ll do something, and then they get blown away.”

Trump has oscillated...

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Moderate Democrat David Crowley defeated Democratic Socialist Francesca Hong in Wisconsin’s primary for governor, an upset in a race that had become a test of the party’s ideological direction.

Crowley had 39.8% of the vote to Hong’s 39.3%, with 99% of the expected vote counted, according to the AP. Decision Desk HQ also called the race for Crowley.

Crowley’s projected victory puts a check on recent momentum for the Demo...

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Pakistan’s defense minister said the US and Iran are “close to some sort of arrangement” over the Strait of Hormuz, even after both sides appeared to toughened their positions in the long-deadlocked negotiations. 

“Things are shaping up in favor of peace,” Khawaja Asif told reporters in Islamabad on Tuesday, without giving details of any breakthrough. Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi will shortly arrive in Tehran to hold talks with his Iranian c...

With Congress now in August recess, President Donald Trump and Congress have a long list of items that may see action before the midterm elections. Yet with only a handful of days in September when both chambers are in action, many of the initiatives could prove to be no more than headline risks and opportunities for companies and sectors.

On Bloomberg Intelligence's August 10 Washington Policy Pulse, we discussed how a Senate continuing resolution to keep the government open until Dec. 11 -- which includes an extension of the Highway Authorization bill -- will likely be adopted, staving off...

Insight & analysis on the White House and Capitol Hill.

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US President Donald Trump signaled he’s prepared to let economic pressure on Iran build rather than launch fresh military strikes to force a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, even as the Islamic Republic reiterated that the conditions still aren’t in place to allow free passage through the key waterway.

“We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money,” Trump told Axios in an in...

Our Town from Bloomberg’s Big Take podcast follows residents of Gainesboro, Tennessee, after a group of far-right Christians moves in with plans for a radical social experiment.

Listen to Episode 1 on the Big Take.

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The Senate voted to pass a slate of sweeping new sanctions against Russia Friday afternoon and extended existing sanctions against Iran. The bill faced pushback over its use of tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil, with some Democrats and Republican Rand Paul saying that would give President Trump too much authority to place new tariffs on countries like China and India. The Senate also made moves towards confirming Trump's nominee for Attorney General, Todd Blanche. Earlier in the day Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana said that...

President Trump took to Truth Social Thursday to hit back at reports that the US has depleted much of its munitions stockpile and that the president clashed with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over the state of the stockpile. President Trump wrote, "The U.S. has massive amounts of 'munitions'" in his post and said that more were being manufactured. In an additional post Thursday afternoon, he doubled down saying 'I am extremely happy with the job that Pete Hegseth is doing.'

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Former Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin says he does not anticipate being on a presidential debate stage in 2028, while stopping short of definitively ruling out a campaign. Youngkin also says communities should have the final say on data center development and that developers must address concerns about power, water and infrastructure. He also discusses his new initiative promoting a federal scholarship tax credit. He speaks with Kailey Leinz and Joe Mathieu on the late edition of Bloomberg's "Balance of Power."

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Abdul El-Sayed won the Democratic US Senate primary in Michigan, notching a narrow but cataclysmic victory over Representative Haley Stevens and the establishment wing of the party that backed her in the battleground state. 

El-Sayed prevailed with 48.5% of the vote to Stevens’ 47.5%, according to the Associated Press. Mallory McMorrow, who had suspended her campaign, drew 4% of the votes. 

Bloomberg Washington Correspondents Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz deliver insight and anal...

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US President Donald Trump is pushing Iran to reach a deal with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz as soon as Tuesday, or face devastating air strikes.

“I want to give them every last chance before decapitation,” Trump told reporters on Monday. “You’ll find out today or tomorrow. I mean, they’re going to go quickly, one way or the other. It’s not very complex.”

This is a “last chance...

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President Donald Trump said his latest offer of talks is a “last chance” for Iran after he called off what he said was a major attack on the Islamic Republic. 

Iran denied it was negotiating with the US, but said talks with Oman to get more ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz are making progress.

Despite the conflicting signals, the suggestions of renewed diplomacy pushed oil prices lower on Mo...

With the Senate entering its final week before the the August recess, political discussions over a cryptocurrnecy market structure bill -- ahead of a potential procedural vote this week -- led Bloomberg Intelligence's August 3 Washington Policy Pulse. A vote that gains more than 60 Senators would likely just kick the can on negotiations during the recess. Failure could keep the regulatory landscape for firms like Coinbase, Robinhood and other platforms murky for the next few years.

We also discussed the latest on a government shutdown and Senate efforts to unlock a $95 billion reconciliation bill that would aid contractors...

Insight & analysis on the White House and Capitol Hill.

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Bloomberg Washington Correspondents Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz deliver insight and analysis on the latest headlines from the White House and Capitol Hill, including conversations with influential lawmakers and key figures in politics and policy.

President Donald Trump said he’s losing confidence in Iranian negotiators, the latest sign that the renewal of armed hostilities in the Middle East could drag on. Speaking during a Cabinet meeting on Friday, Trump took iss...

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President Donald Trump said he is open to the possibility of temporarily withdrawing Todd Blanche’s nomination as attorney general amid opposition from two Republican senators, suggesting he could renominate his pick after those lawmakers departed office.

Trump’s comments come amid a delay in the confirmation process for Blanche, currently serving as the acting attorney general, to take the role on a permanent basis.

Republican Senators Thom Tillis of N...

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President Donald Trump said the US would strike back at Iran after a recent attack that targeted a military base in Jordan, as the war in the Middle East flared up once again following a recent pause in hostilities.

“We’ll be hitting them hard,” Trump said in a phone interview, Fox News reported Wednesday, adding that “they’re going to get a beating.”

The comments sent oil surging back above $...

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US President Donald Trump welcomed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the White House Tuesday as the US leader sought to avoid renewed bombing in Iran and instead laid the ground for further diplomacy after both sides paused tit-for-tat strikes.

“I think we have a very strong position right now,” Trump told Fox News on Tuesday. He reiterated his threat to bomb Iran’s major bridges if no agreement can be reache...

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Some House Republicans are urging President Donald Trump to expand his visibility for them on the campaign trail, as lawmakers sound the alarm on their vulnerabilities with him not being at the top of the ticket.

Several lawmakers who spoke to Bloomberg Government said they wanted Trump to be more aggressive in the crucial months before the November election to help turn out low propensity voters with control of Congress hanging...

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Bloomberg Washington Correspondents Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz deliver insight and analysis on the latest headlines from the White House and Capitol Hill, including conversations with influential lawmakers and key figures in politics and policy. 

On this edition, Joe speaks with:

Insight & analysis on the White House and Capitol Hill.

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The House passed stopgap funding to keep the government open past the midterm elections, though the measure now faces demands for changes in the Senate. 

Government funding is currently set to run out after Sept. 30. The legislation, passed Tuesday on a 220 to 205 vote, would extend that through Dec. 4.
 
Speaker Mike Johnson was able to unite House Republicans in the face of opposition from minority Democrats, who argued the bill contained a...

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House passage yesterday of a stopgap measure marks the first step in congressional wrangling over how to avoid a government shutdown this fall, even if the legislation changes before it reaches President Donald Trump’s desk.

Government funding set to run out after Sept. 30 would be extended through Dec. 4 under the legislation, which passed on a 220-205 vote.

Democrats largely opposed the measure (H.R. 9770), citing the lack of te...

Insight & analysis on the White House and Capitol Hill.

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US President Donald Trump minimized the prospect of immediate talks with Iran as the two sides exchanged strikes and Houthi militants in Yemen threatened shipping in the Red Sea.

Trump vowed on Tuesday to respond if the Iran-backed group disrupted that waterway, but didn’t specify how. 

His comments came after the 10th day of US and Iranian attacks and as mediators continued efforts to restart negotiations. Oil prices tic...

A look at the National Defense Authorization Act -- which could be voted upon by the House of Representatives this week -- led Bloomberg Intelligence's July 20 Washington Policy Pulse -- with a highlight of a Senate provision that would prohibit firms that contract with the Department of Defense from conducting stock buybacks or pay dividends. We think that the language, as written, could -- subject to liberal interpretation -- could apply to more firms than just defense contractors.

We also previewed what the US Trade Representative may do later this week as the deadline for President Donald...

Insight & analysis on the White House and Capitol Hill.

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President Donald Trump vowed that Iran “will pay” for killing three US soldiers in recent days, even as mediators proposed a new truce with the Middle East war widening further.   

“Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!” Trump wrote on social media on Monday.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt also said the president will attend a dignified transfer ceremony for “our f...

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President Trump accused China of meddling in the 2020 elections and alleged a cover up by the US intelligence community in his primetime address to the nation Thursday night. Trump said, 'great damage has been done to our country.

Our elections were left vulnerable to being rigged and stolen, and the trust of the American people was lost,' and urged Congress to pass a the SAVE act, voter identification legislation backed by the president...

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White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that President Trump will be releasing 'findings' on the 2020 election in his address from the White House tonight and that all of his claims around election integrity will be 'backed by facts.' Leavitt also told reporters that a longtime teleprompter operator who has been found betting on presidential speeches on Kalshi has been put on leave. Leavitt called the actions 'deeply unfortunate and frankly a disgrace' and...

Insight & analysis on the White House and Capitol Hill.

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The United States launched more strikes against Iran Wednesday with the President pledging to keep up the barrage until Iran stops attacking targets in the Strait of Hormuz. Talking to Fox News last night President Trump said, 'We’re going to hit them very hard the night after. And then next week it gets really bad for them because next week comes the power plants. We’re going to knock out all of their bridges unle...

Insight & analysis on the White House and Capitol Hill.

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President Trump said that he is shelving the potential 20% fee for cargo ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz after gulf states urged him to drop it. 'I don’t like the concept of a fee,' Trump told reporters during an oval office meeting with the Prime Minister of Iraq. 'They’re going to be making massive investments into the United States, and I like that much better.' Trump said that he spoke to r...

A look at the fallout from Senator Lindsey Graham's unexpected death and the impact it has on reconciliation 3.0 chances, a potential for $350 billion in defense funding and the appropriations process led Bloomberg Intelligence's July 13 Washington Policy Pulse. 

The death of the Senate Budget Committee chairman -- who was a key proponent of another reconciliation package -- probably puts further roadblocks on the idea and supports our view that such a package has a low chance of success in 2026.

We also discussed the forecast for the CLARITY Act and whether or not a crypto bill can p...

Insight & analysis on the White House and Capitol Hill.

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President Trump and lawmakers spoke out Monday in memory of South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham after his sudden death early Sunday morning. In a social media post over the weekend Trump remembered Graham as, "one of the greatest people and Senators I have ever known.” Graham was known as a staunch foreign policy hawk and had spent his final days in Ukraine working to support the country's fight against Russia and was pushing fo...

Insight & analysis on the White House and Capitol Hill.

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President Donald Trump said the US would continue talks with Iran but considers the ceasefire between the countries to be over.

“The Islamic Republic of Iran has asked us to continue ‘talks.’ We have agreed to do so, but the United States has stated to them, in no uncertain terms, that the Cease Fire is OVER!,” Trump said Friday on social media.

The president’s comments follow several nights of US airs...

Insight & analysis on the White House and Capitol Hill.

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The US military attacked Iran for a second day and Tehran retaliated against American allies in the Persian Gulf, raising fears of a return to war after little progress in efforts to secure a diplomatic outcome.

US Central Command said on X about 90 targets were hit overnight — after 80 the previous day — “to further degrade” Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. 

Iran reported strikes on the peri...

Insight & analysis on the White House and Capitol Hill.

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President Donald Trump said the US would probably launch further strikes on Iran and could resume a blockade on the country’s ports, ratcheting up pressure on Tehran and raising the prospect of a return to all-out war.

“We hit them very hard last night,” Trump said Wednesday on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey. “Probably hit them hard again tonight.”

Trump spoke hours after the US launche...

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NATO allies have agreed to at least $50 billion in defense industry deals, according to an alliance official, to show to US President Donald Trump that Europe is heeding his spending demands.

Secretary General Mark Rutte revealed some of the contracts on Tuesday during a defense industry forum in Ankara, Turkey’s capital, where the military alliance’s leaders are meeting for their annual summit this week. Those included $12 billion in deals to b...

Insight & analysis on the White House and Capitol Hill.

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President Donald Trump will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at a NATO summit in Turkey on Wednesday that will be charged with tension over the US leader’s views on Greenland, European defense spending and the Iran war.

Trump arrives in Turkey on Tuesday, when he will meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan before a summit with the full defense alliance the next day, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said.

Insight & analysis on the White House and Capitol Hill.

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US hiring slowed sharply in June even as the unemployment rate fell, curbing some of the budding momentum in job growth this year. 

Nonfarm payrolls increased 57,000 last month after downward revisions to the prior two months took some of the shine off recent blockbuster reports, Bureau of Labor Statistics data Thursday showed. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% as labor force participation plunged.

Bloomberg Washington Correspondents Joe Mathieu and Kailey L...

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US President Donald Trump said negotiators had made progress in indirect talks with Iran, as the two countries seek to move past last week’s tit-for-tat strikes and convert their interim truce into a lasting peace.

Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and envoy Steve Witkoff visited Qatar on Tuesday for technical discussions on the initial agreement, which set a 60-day negotiating period between Washington and Tehran. 

“They’ve had very good...

Insight & analysis on the White House and Capitol Hill.

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A divided US Supreme Court upheld the constitutional right of birthright citizenship, rejecting President Donald Trump’s planned restrictions and invalidating a central plank of his immigration agenda.

The court said an executive order Trump issued hours after his inauguration last year couldn’t be squared with the Constitution’s 14th Amendment, which has long been understood as guaranteeing citizenship to virtually everyone born on US soil. 

The case tested...

A look at the $87.6 billion supplemental spending request from the White House, which would earmark most of that to the Department of Defense and the conflict with Iran, led Bloomberg Intelligence's July 29 Washington Policy Pulse. However, the request may get a frosty reception on Capitol Hill from both sides of the aisle. Democrats will likely oppose any larger request tied to the conflict with Iran and Republicans may be concerned with messaging ahead of the US midterms. And while $11 billion in farm aid that was included in the request would have bipartisan support, it's inclusion in a larger bill...

Insight & analysis on the White House and Capitol Hill.

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A closely divided US Supreme Court reinforced the Federal Reserve’s independence from the White House, protecting governors from being fired by the president without proof of wrongdoing.

The Fed shield came even as the court in a separate ruling Monday expanded the president’s power to fire top government officials at other federal agencies in a blockbuster ruling that overturns a 91-year-old precedent.

Voting 5-4, the high court said...