Confluence Podcasts

Sometimes it seems as if the United States and China are heading steadily toward armed conflict. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to offer some hope for investors that this won't be the case. 

The US isn't the only market where bond yields are rising. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss why investors should keep an eye on Europe where the euro has been under pressure. 

Investors want to know who will be the ultimate winners from the AI build out. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss lessons from the internet bubble, which might give us some clues.

Bond yields are a major focus for investors these days, but yields alone only tell part of the story. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez shares what real interest rates are telling us about the current state of the economy and how they figure into investment strategy. 

Bill O'Grady and Mark Keller return for another Confluence Mailbag episode to tackle listener questions on rising interest rates and the war in the Middle East. With no clear end in sight to the conflict, they examine elevated oil prices and the importance of energy diversification. They also consider how gold’s role as a portfolio hedge might be changing and, with the AI trade looking long in the tooth, share which defensive sectors look most attractive right now. Submit your question for a future episode to: [email protected].

Oil has been very much in the public eye with prices rising to over $100 a barrel, and there is currently no end in sight for the Iran war. Many analysts, though, were surprised that oil did not increase even more during the first six months of the war. The main reason appears to be the way China dramatically cut its imports of oil. Confluence Advisory Director Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to discuss whether China is likely to continue this behavior and how investors might respond.

As of mid September, the US bond market seems to be immune to efforts by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to bring yields down. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss the current state of the bond market and how investors might respond.

Conservative investors, as a rule, construct their portfolios to, if not anticipate a recession, at least acknowledge the possibility of one. But in doing so, these investors may not fully participate in market rallies. But what if recessions are less common than they used to be? Are these conservative investors needlessly missing out? Confluence Chief Market Strategist, Patrick Fearon Hernandez, joins Phil Adler to address these questions and discuss the investment implications. 

Investors worried about a possible AI bubble can point to a number of reasons, including rising valuations and debt. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss another concern, China's threat to the AI investment boom.

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the third quarter of 2026, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.

Great Britain's economic regression the past few years is notable and well documented. So is the long parade of failed prime ministers. Can the newest one make a difference in a way that will matter for investors? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss what we can expect from new the UK prime minister, Andy Burnham.

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge is getting a makeover, and the result may please investors who would benefit from interest rate cuts, which is probably a majority of investors. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to look into how this change may play out for the markets.

Taking ownership stakes in key high-tech companies is only one way the federal government is exerting its influence on the economy. A whole new economic system appears to be emerging, one that Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez calls the corporatist state. Patrick joins Phil Adler to discuss this transition and why as an investment strategist he's taking notice.

Financial markets are always trying to anticipate what the Fed's next move may be. Making an accurate prediction may become more challenging under new Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss Warsh's strategy and how it might impact investors.

China's use of soft power to create a favorable public perception can reveal goals and tendencies useful for investors. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to share what he learned from a recent visit to the Chinese embassy in Washington.

Bill O'Grady and Mark Keller explore why investors should resist the temptation to abandon their core investment style during periods of market momentum. They unpack how oil prices surprisingly avoided a spike given recent events in the Strait of Hormuz, with a note of caution for future changes as the world adjusts. The conversation turns to Chair Warsh's first FOMC meeting and a likely shift toward reduced Fed transparency, closing with a look at the economic tradeoffs in today's world of no recessions and their long-term outlook for gold.

In our latest episode, the Confluence Macroeconomic Team breaks down the six geopolitical trends that we believe will shape the international landscape in the second half of 2026. From the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the future of the dollar's reserve currency status, to the government's growing role in AI and the rise of quantum computing, the conversation covers the issues most likely to move markets in the months ahead.

Today's tech giants are poised for a maturity shift over the coming years, transitioning from high growth companies into more established market leaders. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to explain why the technology companies of tomorrow may look like the utility companies of today.

History is rhyming. The last time dividend stocks were this out of favor, the dot-com bubble was peaking. Portfolio Manager Tom Dugan joins Director of RIA Relationships Emily D'Agostino to discuss why that dynamic looks a lot like 1999, what the historical data says about what comes next, and why the Confluence IDEA strategy's quarter-century of consistent philosophy and construction may be precisely what this moment calls for. If history is any guide, patient investors may be about to be rewarded.

There was a bit of welcome news for consumers as world oil prices were moderating in early June even though the Strait of Hormuz remained essentially closed. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to explain why and discuss whether this is just a short-term phenomenon.

One long trusted economic indicator may no longer reliably indicate a noninflationary environment. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss how governments might be misled and what investors should watch for.

It may have taken a back seat among recent news headlines, but there has been a big shakeup within OPEC. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to discuss what this may mean for investors.

In the latest Confluence Mailbag, Bill O'Grady and Mark Keller revisit their long-held forecast that US hegemony is in decline and consider what a return to a multipolar world order could mean for investors, outlining the shifts and surprises that may shape the evolving geopolitical landscape. The discussion examines the underappreciated economic risks of the Iran conflict, the implications of a 100% debt-to-GDP ratio, and the factors that could challenge their bullish commodity outlook, before closing on a cautionary read of narrowing market breadth as a signal that AI momentum may be nearing its peak.

Financial markets appear adjusting to the reality of tariffs. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss what we have learned in the past year and how that impacts investment planning.

Something unusual happened to the price of gold as the Iran war broke out. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler today to discuss what happened and what this might mean for the future.

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the second quarter of 2026, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.

Europe is playing catch up to try to close the AI gap with the United States and China. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss the hurdles and the potential and how investors might profit.

Of what value to investors is a Federal Reserve Board chair who is a consensus builder? Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to tell us why this is important. 

In this month's Confluence Mailbag, Bill O'Grady and Mark Keller examine what Iran's shift to yuan-denominated oil transactions means for the dollar's reserve currency status and why viable alternatives remain elusive. They assess widespread concerns around private credit, weigh the broader economic ramifications of the Iran conflict — including the collapse of just-in-time inventory thinking — and close with a discussion of whether the rotation away from mega-cap growth stocks still has legs.

The world has seen additional evidence this year that the United States is no longer the dominant power it once was. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss how investors can manage this new reality.

The war in Iran is an event that is likely to change for the long term the way corporations manage their supply inventories. Think high instead of just in time. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss why this matters a lot for investors.

As the Strait Of Hormuz remains closed due to the war with Iran, Western nations have only limited tools to try to keep the price of oil in check. One strategy is to release stored oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to discuss how effective this tool might be.

Investors have already experienced dramatic initial volatility, but it appears that the war in Iran may also have significant long-term impacts on the financial markets. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss what these impacts might be.

Bill O’Grady and Mark Keller tackle some pressing market topics, opening with a nuanced look at how the conflict in Iran might unfold and what current market expectations may be overlooking. They discuss the concentration risk embedded in passive investing and how investors can navigate it, before turning to the shifting dynamics and recent headlines in private credit, including their perspective on the implications for BDCs. The episode concludes with a forward‑looking conversation about whether the rise of artificial intelligence could reshape the financial advice industry.

Now is a great time to revisit the Case for Hard Assets, an investment area that’s drawing considerable interest these days. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O’Grady draws on his deep expertise in commodities to explain the asset class and the firm’s Global Hard Assets strategy. He outlines the investment team’s macro-driven decision‑making process, offers insight into the current portfolio, and shares his outlook for the asset class, highlighting the key factors driving renewed appeal for hard assets in today’s market environment.

After the war with Iran began, the dollar recorded its largest weekly advance since November 2024. But another traditional favorite destination for investors seeking safety, long term Treasury bonds, performed very different. In this week's report, Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez asks the question, are long term Treasurys no longer a safe haven? The answer to this question has obvious implications for investment strategies.

The increased supply of dollar-backed stablecoins has the potential for wide-ranging impacts, including support for the dollar and an infusion perhaps of demand for US Treasurys. It also is making US banks nervous. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to discuss the possibilities and the investment implications.

Younger investors appear to have more influence on the stock market than they used to and there are signs that they are becoming more cautious. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash explores what may be driving this shift and the potential fallout in this week's report. This episode accompanies the written report by the same title, published on March 2, 2026.

The subject this week is China and how the purge of government officials going on inside that country might eventually impact investors. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez lends us his perspective, gained from his many years of experience in both the financial and government sectors. This episode accompanies the written report by the same title, published on February 23, 2026.

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the first quarter of 2026, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.