Finance TL;DR Daily

The Fed looks set to hold rates despite data that arguably supports a hike, keeping December firmly on the table. Meta unveils a jaw-dropping $95 billion stock offering to fund its AI buildout, with Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom eyeing stakes. And Brazilian markets are reeling after Lula's surprise runoff win sends the real, Petrobras, and XP into a historic selloff. In this episode: • Fed expected to hold rates steady this week despite strong inflation case for another hike — https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/why-the-fed-is-expected-to-hold-rates-steady-despite-a-case-for-raising-them-3761e47f • Meta announces massive stock offering to fund AI expansion — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/26/meta-stock-offering-ai.html • B...

The Fed's hawkish signal collides with a historic one-day plunge in Treasury yields driven by AI debt fears, while oil surges past $100 on Iran tensions, family offices freeze up in real estate, and American Express cuts headcount despite record earnings. In this episode: • Federal Reserve signals potential for more rate hikes, complicating market outlook — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/23/investors-just-got-bad-news-from-the-federal-reserve-heres-what-history-says-comes-next.html • U.S. Treasury yields plunge in biggest drop since 2023 banking crisis — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/23/10-year-treasury-yield-drops-back-to-5-this-week-as-investors-seek-cover-from-ai-worries.html • Higher interest rates force family offices to become pickier in real estate deals — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/23/high-interest-rates-raise-the-bar-for-real-estate-deals.html • Oil prices surge above $100 as...

Jobless claims near a 57-year low complicate the Fed's path to December, Brent crude surges past $111 on Middle East tensions and a U.S. evacuation order in Saudi Arabia, and Meta posts its first negative free-cash-flow quarter since its IPO as AI spending spooks tech investors. In this episode: • Jobless claims drop to 194K, near 57-year lows, complicating the Fed's rate path — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/22/jobless-claims-record-low-weekly.html • Brent crude tops $111 as Trump hints at Iran action and U.S. orders staff out of Saudi Arabia — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/22/oil-prices-today-wti-brent-saudi-arabia.html • Meta sinks 6% after AI spending pushes free cash flow negat...

SpaceX's blowout earnings and merger talk with Tesla lift the broader market, UK inflation climbs to 3.5% cementing a Bank of England rate hike, a New Mexico jury hits Meta with a $25 billion Cambridge Analytica penalty, and mortgage rates dip but housing demand keeps sliding. In this episode: • SpaceX stock jumps 10% after earnings beat; Musk hints at potential Tesla tie-up, lifting broader market — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/21/spacex-spcx-stock-musk-merger-tesla.html • UK inflation jumps to 3.5%, cementing expectations for a Bank of England rate hike — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/21/inflation-uk-cpi-interest-rates.html • Meta ordered to pay $25 billion penalty in New Mexico Cambridge Analytica case — https://www.cnbc.com...

Economists now unanimously expect a December Fed rate hike after an October skip, Treasury yields at multi-decade highs test the stock rally's earnings cushion, and September housing data shows pending sales at their lowest level on record. In this episode: • Fed to skip October but raise rates again in December, nearly all economists say — https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/fed-to-skip-october-but-raise-rates-again-in-december-nearly-all-economists-say-reuters-poll-4960095 • Rates Hit Multi-Decade Highs. Will Growth and Earnings Keep the Rally Going? — https://etfdb.com/etf-strategist-channel/growth-earnings-keep-rally-going/ • Housing market data shows deep freeze as starts and pending sales hit multi-year lows — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/20/september-data-shows-housing-market-in-a-deep-freeze.html

The Fed flags the AI investment boom as a lasting inflation driver — one whose medicine, rate hikes, would hit small businesses and credit-dependent households far harder than the AI giants themselves. Plus, the Nasdaq rebounds over 1% and chip stocks snap an eight-day losing streak as markets brace for a heavy week of megacap earnings. In this episode: • Fed sees AI boom adding to inflation headache, but others may pay for the medicine — https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/fed-sees-ai-boom-adding-to-inflation-headache-but-others-may-pay-for-the-medicine-4956834 • Nasdaq climbs over 1% as AI-linked stocks recover ahead of key earnings — https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/nasdaq-climbs-over-1-ai-linked-stocks-recover-ahead-key-earnings-2026-10-19/

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh refuses to tip his hand on an October rate move, sending hike odds tumbling even as hot inflation keeps a surprise hike alive. Plus, the Bank of Japan vows more tightening, and a brutal week for AI-linked stocks splits the Nasdaq from the Dow. In this episode: • Fed Chair Warsh declines to signal October rate move, markets slash hike odds to ~15% — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/16/kevin-warsh-fed-october-rate-hike-interest-rates-markets.html • BOJ governor vows to keep raising rates, anchor inflation around target — https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxNOW5LS2JnMk04Z3BqMmlWRi1ia2NxUXJaR21PSnY1d080cXkxMTNjS3N1QmhHXzQw...

Hot September PPI and strong retail sales raise the odds of another Fed rate hike, sparking a global sell-off in chip and AI stocks that erased $1.6 trillion in value. Plus, Fed's Mary Daly signals more hikes are likely, and CoreWeave's credit default swaps hit distress levels as investors question AI infrastructure debt. In this episode: • September PPI surges 6.3% annually — largest gain since 2022 — while retail sales beat expectations — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/15/september-producer-price-index-retail-sales-data.html • Global tech and AI stocks plunge as hot inflation data stokes rate-hike fears and AI funding worries — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/15/sk-hynix-samsung-softbank-stocks-asia-tech-rout-ai-funding-worries.html • Fed's Daly says more rate hikes lik...

September CPI jumps to 3.7% on a 9.1% gasoline spike, slamming stocks and sending bond yields higher as rate-hike odds surge. Plus: Fed officials worry Americans are accepting high inflation as the new normal, and Bank of America shares drop 8% on a revenue miss and a historic regulatory fine. In this episode: • U.S. inflation accelerates to 3.7% in September, driven by soaring energy prices — https://apnews.com/article/cpi-inflation-consumer-prices-affordability-3985019a54c82421e6112fb57baba048 • Stocks slide and bond yields jump as hotter CPI fuels rate-hike bets — https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/inflation-jumped-september-gas-diesel-prices-squeezed-consumers-ahead-rcna603202 • Fed officials worry consumers are accepting high inflation as a 'fact of...

Treasury yields hit multi-decade highs with four technical warning signs of further selling and Pimco warning of 6% on the 10-year; Trump forms a White House committee to investigate Fed Governor Lisa Cook; SpaceX's spectrum deal sends Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile tumbling; and Iran's tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz hit a wartime high, squeezing oil flows. In this episode: • Bond market stress intensifies as Treasury yields hit multi-decade highs, with four technical warning signs pointing to further selling — https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2026-10-09/four-signs-it-is-about-to-get-uglier-in-the-bond-market • Trump forms White House committee to investigate Fed Governor Lisa Cook...

The U.S. trade deficit jumps to $105.6 billion on an AI-driven import surge, cutting into Q3 GDP forecasts. Plus, the Fed unveils a major overhaul of bank supervision following the SVB collapse review, and a new survey finds the confidence gap between investors and everyone else at a record high. In this episode: • U.S. trade deficit widens to $105.6 billion, the largest since March 2025 — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/06/trade-deficit-hits-105point6-billion-widest-since-just-before-trump-tariffs-enacted-last-year.html • Federal Reserve plans major overhaul of its bank supervision model — https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxQbFh5RUtIYVlUNWVaOHZTMlRKLXdkTlk1SkEtZHlMSm9HUlpWQkN4WE9IaDh2ZEstOVIzUVBCS1VtSjZtbGpqaW85RVYxeUlXMFRlQld5QXBmNXJUX2ZtTEFjMUF5VEwyWUNw...

A stunningly weak September jobs report — just 29,000 jobs added and a jump to 4.2% unemployment — guts expectations for an October Fed rate hike. Plus, G7 nations agree to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude to tame fuel prices after U.S. diesel hit $6.37 a gallon. In this episode: • U.S. job growth slows sharply in September, unemployment rises to 4.2% — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/jobs-report-september-2026.html • G7 nations to release diesel stockpiles to ease fuel supply shock — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/diesel-oil-trump-europe-export-ban.html

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson signals no rush to hike again in October, even as 10-year Treasury yields briefly touch 5.342%, their highest since 2002. Plus, Brent crude jumps as a third U.S. aircraft carrier heads to the Middle East, and Goldman Sachs pushes its rate-hike call from October to December. In this episode: • Fed Vice Chair Jefferson signals no urgency for next rate hike after September increase — https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/jefferson20261001a.htm • U.S. Treasury yields hit highest level since 2002 before pulling back — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/01/us-treasury-bond-yield.html • Brent oil jumps 4%+ as U.S. sends third airc...

A former Federal Reserve adviser is sentenced to prison for lying about ties to Chinese intelligence, while a cooler-than-expected PCE inflation reading slashes the odds of an October rate hike. Plus, the Fed's inspector general clears Jerome Powell in the headquarters renovation saga, and Treasury yields whipsaw as traders shift focus to the jobs report. In this episode: • Former Fed adviser sentenced to prison for spying for China — https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/former-adviser-federal-reserve-board-governors-sentenced-federal-prison-term • Fed's preferred inflation gauge cools more than expected — https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMidkFVX3lxTE5kY2NFM3J0MFBvRjNNMHFiVVhGTWtBVXBCcEQ0Nk5tREQyY2pkbG1OOV96bVZkY005LTdFX3FL...

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh scraps forward guidance for a market-signal-driven approach as rates rise and yields climb; a federal appeals court upholds the Pentagon's national-security blacklisting of Anthropic; the Fed opens formal rulemaking on stablecoins under the GENIUS Act; and KC Fed's Jeff Schmid asks whether the AI buildout is becoming too big to fail. In this episode: • Warsh's Fed regime change pushes ahead, abandoning forward guidance and reshaping how the central bank communicates — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/25/kevin-warsh-fed-interest-rates-balance-sheet.html • U.S. appeals court upholds Pentagon designation of Anthropic as a supply chain risk — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/25/pentagon-anthropic-ai-risk-appeals-court.html • Fed propos...

Two Fed presidents signal more rate hikes are likely, with Philly Fed's Anna Paulson explicitly blaming the AI infrastructure buildout for sticky inflation. Plus, the Trump-Xi summit yields a trade truce extension and first-ever US-China AI talks, and Barry Diller's People Inc. walks away from its $18 billion MGM Resorts bid. In this episode: • Fed's Paulson and Williams both signal further rate hikes; Paulson warns AI buildout is keeping inflation stubbornly high — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/philadelphia-feds-anna-paulson-says-modest-rate-moves-likely-ahead-to-tame-inflation.html • Trump-Xi DC summit kicks off; China confirms first AI talks with US and hints at trade truce extension — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/trump-xi-meeting-china-washington.html • M...

Boston Fed's Susan Collins and Fed Governor Michael Barr both signal more rate hikes are coming as inflation risks mount, while oil above $100 and a scorching PMI reading send the 10-year Treasury yield to levels unseen since 2007 and drag stocks lower. In this episode: • Fed's Collins warns inflation could stay 'notably' above 2%, signals further rate hikes may be needed — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/23/federal-reserve-inflation-interest-rates-ecb.html • Treasury yields surge to near 20-year high as oil jumps back above $100 — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/23/treasury-yields-oil-inflation-fed.html • Fed's Barr backs more rate hikes as PMI hits 5-year high — https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lx...

Fed officials Goolsbee and Kashkari flag demand-driven inflation and a possible AI-fueled overheating, pushing December rate-hike odds to 88% and keeping Treasury yields elevated. Plus, gold steadies near $4,375 as the September hike and hawkish talk pull bullion in opposite directions. In this episode: • Federal Reserve officials signal aggressive stance on inflation as markets price in more hikes — https://www.marketscreener.com/news/gold-inches-down-on-rising-odds-of-fed-rate-hike-stronger-dollar-ce785adbdc80f227 • Gold steadies as traders weigh inflation and Fed hike outlook — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-20/gold-steadies-as-traders-weigh-inflation-and-fed-hike-outlook

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's 'dose of accommodation' language sends markets bracing for more rate hikes, the two-year Treasury yield hits a multi-year high, and a new report finds the Fed's own supervisors saw SVB's collapse coming and didn't act. In this episode: • Fed Chairman Warsh's 'dose of accommodation' comments signal more rate hikes ahead — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/18/three-words-from-kevin-warsh-have-wall-street-wondering-how-far-the-fed-will-go-with-rate-hikes.html • Two-year U.S. Treasury yield hits new multi-year high as rate hike expectations rise — https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAFBVV95cUxObWdZelU2d3JvOUc2QTVSQUt0Wk1pTnhkX0c3NF9DU0JUcFpYdWF3Ty1NNlFabDJXbF9IZENjNVI3aUVVTzRsekh4V24yTlZaX2wzVEhaMFRQc3FPUklPRlJPNnNCT1E0SmJCWl9F...

The Bank of England holds rates but warns inflation could top 4%, putting it at odds with a Fed that just hiked for the first time since 2023 — and Wall Street cheers anyway as oil prices retreat. In this episode: • Bank of England holds rates but warns inflation could top 4%, diverging from Fed and ECB — https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/bank-england-sounds-inflation-alarm-it-holds-interest-rates-2026-09-17/ • Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2023, defying political pressure — https://www.apnews.com/fed-raises-rates-first-time-in-3-years-trump-cut-9750f4e77f4615b9a6d7b5f3e3c7a3e3 • Wall Street rises as falling oil prices offer relief after...

The Fed is expected to raise rates a quarter point to fight 3.7% inflation, clashing with the White House, just as mortgage demand drops 19% and J.B. Hunt warns on earnings. Plus: US household income hits a record high even as poverty falls. In this episode: • Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates for first time in 3 years — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/bizarre-volatility-bet-in-the-options-pits-is-a-head-scratcher-ahead-of-fed-rate-decision.html • US household income hits record high in 2025 while poverty falls — https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026/income-poverty-health-insurance-coverage.html • Mortgage demand plunges 19% year-over-year as rates surge — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/mortgage-demand-from-homebuyers-drops-19percent-from-a-year-ago.html • J.B. Hunt stock plunges 10% after warning...

Finance TL;DR Daily covers the Fed's expected first rate hike under Chairman Kevin Warsh, the 10-year Treasury yield breaking above 5% for the first time since 2007, and a global bond selloff tied to surging oil prices and Middle East tensions. In this episode: • Federal Reserve expected to raise benchmark rate this week, marking first hike under Chairman Warsh — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/15/what-higher-for-longer-interest-rates-mean-for-your-investments.html • 10-year Treasury yield tops 5%, a critical threshold for markets and economy — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/15/treasury-yields-stocks-investors.html • Global bond yields surge to fresh highs, raising stakes for big borrowers — https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/stocks-wobble-no-sign-panic-yields-surge-2026-09-15/

The Fed looks set to raise rates for the first time since 2023 at Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chair, with economists now pricing in another hike by March; meanwhile the 10-year Treasury yield briefly touched 5% as bond markets brace for a higher-for-longer rate world. In this episode: • Fed's table is set for a rate hike, a first under Warsh — https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-table-is-set-rate-hike-first-under-warsh-2026-09-14/ • Fed rate hike on Wednesday now likely, say economists, and at least one more to follow — https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-rate-hike-wednesday-now-likely-say-economists-least-one-more-follow-2026-09-14/ • 10-year Treasury yield hits 5% before reversing as traders await Fed meetin...

August CPI comes in hotter than expected, pushing odds of a Fed rate hike next week to nearly 90% and putting Chairman Kevin Warsh's credibility on the line. Treasury yields jump to multi-year highs on the news, while Oracle shares pop on 30% revenue growth and a $664 billion AI cloud backlog. In this episode: • Hotter-than-expected August CPI cements near-certainty of Fed rate hike next week — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/11/august-consumer-inflation-cements-fed-rate-hike-odds-what-wall-street-is-saying.html • Fed Chairman Warsh under intense pressure to hike rates to defend credibility — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/11/kevin-warsh-fed-cpi-inflation-rate-hike-analysis.html • Treasury yields surge to multi-year highs as sticky inflation data rattles bond market — https://www...

The White House ramps up pressure on the Fed days before its rate decision, Brent crude surges past $100 on Middle East tensions, two make-or-break inflation reports land this week, and Treasury triples its bond buyback to calm shaky markets. In this episode: • Trump administration ramps up public pressure on Fed to cut rates ahead of pivotal meeting — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/05/trump-warsh-fed-september-rate-hike.html • Oil surges back above $100, fueling fresh inflation fears ahead of Fed decision — https://www.marketwatch.com/story/brent-crude-reaches-100-as-war-in-iran-intensifies-b73832e2?mod=mw_rss_topstories • Fed rate hike hinges on two key inflation reports due in the next two days —...

Brent crude surges near $100 after Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities, sending the Dow down 600 points and reigniting inflation fears. Plus, Canada's $27.6 billion retaliatory tariffs take effect, UK borrowing costs hit a 28-year high, and GE Aerospace reportedly moves on a $12 billion acquisition of CPP. In this episode: • Brent crude oil hits $98 after Iran's Houthi allies attack multiple Saudi energy facilities — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/08/oil-prices-today-brent-wti-hormuz-iran-war.html • Canada's retaliatory tariffs worth CA$27.6 billion take effect as trade rift with U.S. deepens — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/08/canada-retaliatory-tariffs.html • Stock Market Today: Dow Dives 600 Points, Oil Pops — https://www.investors.com/market-trend...

August payrolls smashed forecasts at 162,000 jobs, pushing Treasury yields higher and rate-hike odds above 60% — then President Trump threatened to cut off trade with deficit countries unless the Fed cuts rates instead, rattling markets over central bank independence. In this episode: • Trump threatens to halt trade with deficit nations unless Fed cuts rates after strong jobs data — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/04/trump-fed-rates-jobs-trade.html • U.S. payrolls surge past forecasts, sending rate hike bets and yields higher — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/04/jobs-report-august-2026.html

Fed Governor Waller signals a possible September pause, sending stocks up and yields down; Nvidia agrees to buy Hugging Face for $12.9 billion; Broadcom's blowout AI numbers still weren't enough for the Street; and oil climbs on Middle East tensions without derailing the bond rally. In this episode: • Fed Governor Waller signals potential pause on rate hikes, boosting stocks and easing Treasury yields — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-thursday-september-3-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-futures-081525933.html • Nvidia to acquire AI platform Hugging Face for $13 billion — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-thursday-september-3-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-futures-081525933.html • Broadcom stock falls despite earnings beat, as AI revenue forecast f...

A worldwide bond sell-off pushes U.S., UK, German and Japanese yields to multi-year highs on inflation fears and oil prices, while Fed's John Williams and a weak ADP jobs report muddy the picture ahead of the Fed's September meeting. Plus, the Bank of Canada holds rates steady despite an escalating tariff fight with the U.S. In this episode: • U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hits highest level since November 2023 — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/02/bond-yields-treasurys-inflation.html • Global bond rout deepens as inflation fears and rate hike bets mount — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/02/global-bond-yields-inflation-rates.html • Fed's Williams says yield surge due to strong...

Mortgage rates hit their highest since June 2025 as Middle East tanker attacks send oil and Treasury yields higher, the 10-year yield's breakout toward 5% raises fresh alarm about federal borrowing costs, and OpenAI completes a $7 billion secondary share sale ahead of a targeted 2027 IPO. In this episode: • Mortgage rates surge to the highest since June 2025 as new Middle East attacks push oil prices up — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/31/mortgage-rates-surge-middle-east-attacks-oil.html • The 10-year Treasury yield is breaking out and 5% could be just the beginning. Here’s why that matters. — https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-10-year-treasury-yield-is-breaking-out-and-5-could-be-just-the-beginning-heres-why-that-matters-3906b83e?mod=mw_rss_topstories...

Core PCE inflation holds at 3.3% just days before Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, Treasury Secretary Bessent's bond buyback move adds pressure on the Fed, and Meta settles teen social media addiction lawsuits with 29 states for $16.7 billion. In this episode: • Fed’s preferred inflation gauge shows core prices rose 3.3% annually in July — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/26/feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-shows-core-prices-rose-3point3percent-annually-in-july.html • Dollar and bond markets 'on edge' ahead of Jackson Hole as Bessent's market intervention piles pressure on Warsh — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/26/jackson-hole-warsh-bessent-bonds-treasury-dollar.html • Meta settles social media addiction case with California, other states for $16.7 billion — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/26/meta-social-me...

New U.S. sanctions on Iran barely move markets while China's role stays murky, Treasury eyes its $1 trillion cash account to fund bond buybacks, gold and Bitcoin surge on the 'debasement trade,' and tech stocks slide ahead of Nvidia earnings and Alibaba's discounted share sale. In this episode: • U.S. expands sanctions on Iran, but markets shrug as China's role remains unclear — https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/shares-oil-dip-us-sanctions-iran-loom-6336701 • Treasury yields fall on report Bessent may use General Account to fund bond buybacks — https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/shares-oil-dip-us-sanctions-iran-loom-6336701 • Gold and Bitcoin surge as 'debasement trade' returns on Treasury debt moves — ht...

Treasury Secretary Bessent's oversized bond buyback plan spooked inflation expectations instead of calming them, raising the stakes for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole debut. Plus, U.S.-Canada trade talks collapse as 50% tariffs and retaliation kick in. In this episode: • Bessent's bond buyback plan backfires, sparking inflation fears and pressuring the Fed — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/21/bessents-bond-gambit-aimed-at-calming-markets-is-instead-stirring-inflation-worries-.html • U.S. imposes 50% tariffs on Canadian goods after trade talks collapse — https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-canadian-trade-teams-meet-again-tariffs-deadline-looms-2026-08-21/ • Bond market anxiety raises stakes for Warsh's debut Jackson Hole speech — https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxQcnNlclhfMG4yZE9OTExTUEQ4Zi1sUml5RFdo...

Japan's inflation hits a 2026 high and puts the Bank of Japan on track for a September rate hike, while U.S. housing starts post their steepest drop in years. Plus, why Nvidia's earnings next Wednesday could decide the market's direction, and the U.S.-Canada trade deal coming down to the wire. In this episode: • Japan headline inflation rate hits highest this year as energy prices bite — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/21/japan-inflation-iran-war-energy.html • Economic Watch: U.S. housing starts plummet in July amid elevated rates — https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMifEFVX3lxTE1reDBwWGRmT0wxZjFZVTFZZXhNS2ZSbTV5aVJCZkdYYzEteXNFM0J3MldhUWNCb3h3VUxTa1Ry...

The July Fed minutes show officials open to hiking rates if inflation stays hot, even as Trump renews his push for cuts and the national debt crosses $40 trillion. Plus, why Walmart shares fell despite raised guidance. In this episode: • Fed minutes show officials ready to hike rates if inflation remains elevated — [cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/fed-minutes-july-2026-officials-saw-need-for-rate-hike-if-inflation-doesnt-cool.html) • Trump renews pressure on Fed for rate cuts, calls current costs 'ridiculous' — [cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/trump-bemoans-fed-interest-rate-policy-says-us-should-be-paying-much-less.html) • U.S. debt hits $40 trillion as Treasury struggles to contain surging bond yields — [cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/us-government-debt-passes-40-trillion-ma...

The UAE severs trade with Iran after a missile strike, sending oil and safe-haven flows into motion, while the U.S. Treasury doubles debt buybacks to calm a jittery bond market. Plus: Moderna and Merck's melanoma vaccine data sends the stock soaring, Google eyes a $12.2 billion stake in Marvell's custom chips, and India's central bank signals hikes are coming. In this episode: • UAE severs trade with Iran after reported missile strike — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/us-iran-war-trump-hormuz.html • Treasury doubles debt buybacks as Bessent moves to steady bond market — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/treasury-announces-upscaled-buyback-operation-for-longer-term-debt-sending-yields-lower.html • Moderna, Merck cancer vaccine shows promise in late-st...

A surprise jobs miss and cooler wholesale inflation have traders betting the Fed holds rates in September, sending stocks to record highs even as 30-year Treasury yields sat at 19-year highs earlier in the week. Plus, Russia's state development bank fires its chief economist after he warned Moscow is losing the economic war of attrition. In this episode: • Fed may hold rates steady as cooling inflation and weak jobs data reduce hike odds — https://finance-commerce.com/2026/08/fed-interest-rates-inflation-jobs-outlook/ • U.S. stocks rally to record highs as inflation cools and oil prices drop — https://apnews.com/article/stock-markets-ai-semiconductors-fed-energy-3a23f22469cd0e0062f7110969...

Fed rate hike odds for September plunge to roughly 30% after a shock jobs loss, sending the dollar to a two-month low ahead of Wednesday's FOMC minutes — plus why futures still price in a year-end hike, and fresh signs China's economy is losing steam. In this episode: • September Fed Rate Hike Odds Plunge as Inflation and Jobs Data Cool — https://www.top1markets.com/news/september-fed-rate-hike-odds • Fed Minutes to Offer Outdated but Insightful Look at Internal Debate — https://www.top1markets.com/news/september-fed-rate-hike-odds • Markets Still Price in Year-End Fed Hike Despite Recent Data Softness — https://finance-commerce.com/2026/08/fed-interest-rates-inflation-jobs-outlook/ • Dollar Slips to Multi-Month L...

Soft inflation data has traders leaning toward a Fed hold in September, even as a surprise drop in July retail sales adds to the cooling-economy narrative. Plus, Applied Materials shares slide on weak guidance despite beating earnings, and global equity funds notch a 12th straight week of inflows. In this episode: • Cooler inflation data may force Warsh's divided Fed to hold the line on rates — https://reuters.com/business/cooler-inflation-data-may-force-warshs-divided-fed-hold-line-rates-2026-08-14 • US retail sales post first decline in nine months in July — https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/us-retail-sales-unexpectedly-fall-123738457.html • Applied Materials shares fall on guidance and margin concerns — https://www...

A surprisingly flat Producer Price Index report boosts hopes for a September rate cut, but Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack's dissent shows the inflation fight isn't settled. Plus, Databricks hits a $190 billion valuation, and the U.S. budget deficit posts its biggest July shortfall since 2021. In this episode: • Wholesale prices were flat in July, below expectations for 0.2% increase — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/13/wholesale-prices-were-flat-in-july-below-expectations-for-0point2percent-increase.html • Fed should raise rates to restrain growth and inflation, Hammack says — https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxNVHBQbGpaRk5FcmRfWTlhRmNHeFJiWlpOY2pyY25qdzFka19seGhUU29vMWlvVkxzdW1oMUtYVjN0bU1WNzBsRzZxOS1BLWdRRXVPdDdBdGdPVFRSU2dMZWtXbHZQcmZHTFdhQVU1RXNBYVVyZUdoTjE1RmluSXRxUUpkQXFqUkRXR0RHZ3Fxakh4dEJYY0FUM2toST...