Nakajima Quant Desk - English

📊 A deep dive into the BCB's latest Focus Market Readout (Sep 11, 2026). The 2026 year-end Selic forecast has held at 13.75% for six straight weeks — but the freshest 5-day data already shows 13.56%, with respondents surging from 35 to 98. 📈 IPCA forecasts are diverging: falling for 2026, rising for 2027, still above BCB's 4.5% ceiling. 💡 We break down what this means for BRL/JPY carry trades and Japanese investors holding Brazilian assets. ⚠️ Next release: Sep 21, 2026. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/ZzmU-g4hpIM

📊 Japan's METI confirmed July's Industrial Production Index at 104.4 (-0.2% MoM), revised down from a preliminary +0.1%. 💊 Pharmaceuticals and canned cocktails drove the downgrade. ⚙️ Yet production machinery, including semiconductor equipment, surged +16.4% YoY, and utilization kept rising. 📉 August plans were revised up to +6.4%, but September forecasts a -4.2% pullback. A deep dive into Japan's two-speed manufacturing economy. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/-VL84nxeT8w

This week's global data revealed a common thread: an energy-driven split between headline and core inflation. 📊 US CPI & PPI headlines accelerated while core measures cooled 📊 Japan's PPI hit +7.6% YoY but fell MoM for the first time in 11 months ⚡ ECB delivered a rare hike against a supply shock (deposit rate to 2.50%) 💰 Japan's GDP was revised up, though capex stayed negative for a 2nd straight quarter 💡 Oracle's cloud revenue surged 121%, but free cash flow turned negative on AI capex Next week's FOMC (Sep 16) is the key event — how the Fed reads this inflation split will move rates and FX. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://you

Breaking down this week's 3 major US macro releases (Sep 10, 2026) 📊 Initial jobless claims held at a historically low 206,000, signaling labor market resilience 📈 But WTI crude surged over $8 in a week to $92.69, with distillate inventories 13% below the 5-year average ⚠️ The Fed's balance sheet grew year-over-year, hinting QT may be stalling 💡 Labor, energy, and liquidity data are sending mixed signals this week — here's the strategist-level breakdown. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/CSofb3mxzlA

📊 The University of Michigan's preliminary September reading fell to 47.8, down 7.5% from August — a second straight monthly decline. 📉 Current conditions barely moved, but the Expectations Index plunged 11.1%. Households are more worried about the future than the present. 🔥 1-year inflation expectations jumped from 4.0% to 4.6%, the highest since June. ⚠️ Weakening sentiment paired with rising inflation expectations complicates the Fed's policy path. Final September data due Sep 25. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/czbEGDHynpc

📊 US CPI rose 0.4% in August, a sharp jump from July's 0.1%, driven mainly by a gasoline price surge that accounted for over a third of the monthly gain. 📉 Meanwhile, core CPI (ex food & energy) cooled to 2.4% y/y from 2.5% in July — the third straight monthly deceleration. 🏠 Shelter costs reaccelerated to 0.3% m/m, the fastest since May, keeping services inflation concerns alive. 💡 We break down this mixed report where the headline and core trends move in opposite directions. Next release: October 14, 2026. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/6ikmIgKtOdg

Deep dive into Japan's Ministry of Finance Corporate Business Sentiment Survey (BSI), Q3 FY2026 📊 Large-company sentiment BSI jumped from -0.5 to +5.3, beating the prior forecast of +4.3. Ordinary profit outlook swung from -2.4% to +2.3% YoY — a dramatic reversal 📈 But small businesses remain deeply negative at -10.9, with 16.6% citing risk of business shrinkage or exit due to labor shortages, versus just 4.7% for large firms ⚠️ We break down the two-speed Japanese economy hidden inside this data, and what it means for BOJ policy. Next survey due in December. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/vahOpA-sX58

Deep dive into Japan's August 2026 Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) 📊 Domestic CGPI YoY accelerated to +7.6%, near cycle highs. But the MoM print turned negative (-0.2%) for the first time in about a year ⚠️ Import prices decelerated sharply (YoY +29.1%→+24.8%) as yen appreciation and falling energy prices combined 📉. Yet metals and gold-linked categories kept rising 💹 Upstream inflation pressure shows both persistence and deceleration at once—key signals for the BOJ's next policy move. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/4ZpWTaNNgoo

Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) reported Q1 FY2027 earnings. 📊 Total revenue hit a record $19.3B (+30% YoY), Non-GAAP EPS reached $1.92 (+30% YoY). 📈 Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS) revenue rocketed 121% YoY to $7.4B, extending triple-digit growth. RPO surged $209B YoY to $664B. ⚠️ But capital expenditures ballooned to $28.5B, pushing Free Cash Flow to negative $5.4B. We break down the GAAP and Non-GAAP numbers behind Oracle's AI infrastructure investment cycle. 💡 Also covering Q2 FY27 guidance and the raised full-year revenue outlook of at least $90B. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/DNXFbJwcJfc

📊 A deep dive into the August 2026 Producer Price Index (PPI) released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Headline final demand PPI rose 0.4% MoM, accelerating sharply from July's 0.1%. Yet core PPI (ex-food, energy, trade services) cooled to 0.3% from 0.4%. 💡 Energy—especially a 24.1% single-month diesel spike—drove most of the headline gain. Meanwhile, Stage 1 intermediate demand rose 11.3% YoY, signaling upstream cost pressure. ⚠️ We break down both the hawkish and dovish readings of this split-signal report and what it means for the Fed's next move. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/HO7KjTCIc4w

Breaking down Japan's Ministry of Finance weekly international securities flow data. 📊 USD/JPY dropped from 159.97 to 156.11 in a single week — a 2.4% move. 📉 Foreign investors bought a net ¥690bn of Japanese stocks (2nd-highest in 8 weeks), and JGB buying stayed positive for a third straight week. 💹 Meanwhile, Japanese investors flipped to net selling foreign stocks (-¥481.6bn), signaling a shift in cross-border demand. ⚠️ It's too early to call this a structural trend from one week of data. Next release: Sep 17, covering Sep 6-12. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/ufZKMMsE0CI

Deep dive into the Bank of Japan's August 2026 Money Stock preliminary report. 📊 M2 grew +2.0% YoY, M3 +1.2% YoY — both slowing for a 4th straight month. 💰 Quasi-money (time deposits) held firm at +4.4%, while M1 (settlement deposits) turned negative at -0.1%. 📈 Broadly-defined liquidity stayed high at +4.4%, driven by investment trusts (+12.0%) and foreign bonds (+7.1%). ⚠️ CDs plunged -8.0% YoY. We analyze what this means for BOJ policy normalization and the yen — with balanced, data-driven analysis. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/ryZPbAwhn-Q

📊 A deep dive into Japan's July 2026 Monthly Labour Survey (flash estimate), published by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Real wages rose +2.4% YoY, marking seven consecutive months of gains since turning positive in January 2026. 💡 Base pay (scheduled earnings) grew a robust +4.1%, reflecting strong spring wage negotiation results. ⚠️ However, a same-establishment reference measure shows softer growth of just +3.0%, and employment growth is decelerating. We break down what this means for the Bank of Japan's policy path — balancing strength and caution. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/XHagwK5SIvI

📊 A deep dive into Japan's Q2 2026 GDP Second Preliminary Estimate from the Cabinet Office. Real GDP was revised up from +0.3% to +0.4% QoQ (annualized +1.1% to +1.4%). 📉 But beneath the headline, domestic demand contribution stayed negative. Private capex fell for a second straight quarter, and housing/public investment were revised down. 💡 On the bright side, real compensation of employees was revised sharply higher, signaling accelerating wage growth. ⚠️ We break down what this mixed picture means for the BOJ's rate path, JGB yields, equities, and the yen. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/o76GbmDHoZA

📊 Japan's Ministry of Finance released July 2026 balance of payments (preliminary). The current account swung back to a ¥2.99tn surplus (+¥402.6bn YoY) from June's rare ¥92.3bn deficit — a V-shaped rebound. 💡 The engine: primary income of ¥4.29tn, i.e., returns on Japan's overseas investments. 📈 Strengths: exports up 24.1% YoY (11th straight monthly gain) led by semiconductors; services deficit narrowed; foreign investors bought ¥1.79tn of Japanese equities. ⚠️ Weaknesses: imports surged 25.9%, widening the trade deficit as oil (+60.2% in USD) and a weak yen (¥162.55/USD) pushed costs up; inbound tourism growth stalled at +0.1%. A balanced deep dive into Japan's structural shift from trading nation to investment-income nation. ▶️ Full video...

📊 This week's three key US macro reports, explained. Initial jobless claims held at a historically low 206,000, signaling labor market resilience. 📈 But the Fed's overnight reverse repo buffer has drained to just $525 million weekly, while Treasury's cash rebuild squeezed bank reserves by $287 billion year-over-year. ⚠️ Energy supply stayed firm even as demand softened 4% YoY. 💡 Labor, energy, and liquidity — three crosscurrents investors should watch heading into next week. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/XLnPSXDUkX0

📊 US nonfarm payrolls surged +162,000 in August, far outpacing the prior 12-month average of just 31,000. ✅ June and July payrolls revised up a combined +55,000 ✅ Unemployment held steady at 4.1%, part-time-for-economic-reasons fell 414,000 ⚠️ But the Information sector shed 23,000 jobs and teen unemployment jumped to 14.1% 💡 A broadening, resilient labor market—but with pockets of weakness. We break down what it means for the Fed's rate path. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/pIT8NBwLCW4

📊 The US goods & services trade deficit widened 24.4% to $88.6B in July 2026, up $17.4B from June, per the Census Bureau and BEA (FT-900). 📈 The standout: capital goods imports surged $14.4B in a single month — computers +$6.9B, computer accessories +$6.6B, semiconductors +$1.2B — pointing to an AI/data-center capex boom. YTD computer imports have nearly doubled YoY. 📉 Exports fell $6.6B, dragged by crude oil (-$4.5B) and nonmonetary gold (-$3.9B). 💡 Yet the year-to-date deficit is DOWN 29.6% vs 2025, with exports up 12%. A complex report mixing one-month deterioration with structural improvement. ⚠️ Country mix is shifting: Mexico ($27.5B) now tops the deficit table, with Vietnam and Taiwan ahead of...

📊 Broadcom (AVGO) reported fiscal Q3 2026 results: revenue of $29.6B (+86% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $3.32 (+96% YoY) — both record highs. 🚀 The engine: AI semiconductor revenue hit $16.7B, up 221% YoY and 54% QoQ. ⚠️ But infrastructure software grew just 29%, revealing rising concentration risk on a single AI-driven segment. 💡 Q4 guidance calls for $34.8B in revenue (+93% YoY). Whether AI demand sustains this pace is the next key question. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/vzxm4Vm-UzQ

📊 A deep dive into the Fed's July Beige Book. Districts reporting solid job gains jumped from just 1 last time to 5 this cycle, while price growth cooled or held steady across all 12 Districts. 📈 A rare Fed-friendly combo: labor market resilience plus broadening disinflation. ⚠️ But Minneapolis and Richmond show firms struggling to pass through cost increases, squeezing margins. Consumer spending is splitting K-shaped by income, and agriculture worsened in 6+ Districts. 💡 How Chair Warsh's FOMC reads these anecdotes could shape the pace of future rate cuts. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/qcm68ZKjDbI

📊 The U.S. Census Bureau's July durable goods report shows total new orders at $663.6B, up 0.9% and rebounding from two straight monthly declines. 📈 Core capital goods shipments — the real-time gauge of capex execution — rose over 1% for a second consecutive month. ⚠️ But core capital goods orders, the forward-looking proxy for business investment, came in essentially flat after May and June's strong gains. 💡 Volatile transportation and defense orders inflated the headline number. We break down what it really means for investors. Next release: Oct 2. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/yR9VS9E3x04

The Bank of Japan released July 2026 Monetary Base data on Aug 4. The year-on-year decline widened to -13.8%, the 11th straight month of deepening contraction. 📉 Current account balances fell -16.6% and reserve balances -15.3%, confirming BOJ's quantitative tightening is proceeding on schedule via reduced JGB purchases. Meanwhile, banknotes in circulation fell only -1.9% — cash demand itself is not collapsing. 💡 We break down what this means for JGB yields and the yen. 📊 ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/QjAed3xV3Lg

📊 A deep dive into the July 2026 JOLTS report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Job openings rose slightly to 7.3 million. But hires fell 278,000, quits dropped 157,000, and the quits rate slipped to 1.9%. 📉 Layoffs also fell by 119,000, pointing to a synchronized slowdown in both hiring and firing -- a "low-churn" labor market. 💡 Healthcare stayed hot at a 5.7% openings rate, while professional & business services openings fell for a 4th straight month. ⚠️ We break down what this means for Fed rate cuts, the dollar, and equities -- with balanced analysis on both sides. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/4FC_-eKugDc

📊 Japan's Cabinet Office reported the Consumer Confidence Index rose to 35.5 in August, up 0.6pt for a 4th straight month. 📈 The durable-goods buying-time sub-index jumped 1.9pt to its highest since February. 📉 But income growth and employment expectations both declined for the first time in months. Expectations for 5%+ inflation plunged 6.0pt. 💡 We break down the split between headline improvement and internal cracks, plus what it means for BOJ policy and consumer stocks. ⚠️ Next release (September data) is due early October — watch whether income/employment sentiment rebounds. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/EF9r7a4wpjM

📊 Deep dive into Brazil's weekly Focus Market Readout survey (data as of Aug 28, 2026). Selic rate forecasts are unchanged across every horizon, with the 2029 estimate flat at 10.00% for 17 straight weeks. 📉 Yet the 2026 IPCA inflation forecast remains at 5.01%, still above the BCB's 4.5% tolerance ceiling. GDP growth was cut for a second week, and fiscal deficit forecasts widened too. 💹 We break down what this means for BRL/JPY carry trades and risks for Japanese investors. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/8baYdhYna44

📊 Deep dive into Japan's July 2026 Industrial Production Index (preliminary) released by METI. Production rose 0.1% MoM, marking a 4th straight monthly gain, yet the official assessment remains "flat/directionless." 💡 Beneath the surface weakness, semiconductor manufacturing equipment output surged +45.3% YoY, and capital goods shipments jumped +13.5% YoY—signaling robust capex momentum. Meanwhile, operating ratio jumped +4.1% MoM even as production capacity fell for a 28th consecutive month—a structural shift in Japan's manufacturing base. ⚠️ The forecast survey points to +6.4% for August, but realization ratios have persistently disappointed, and the business sentiment DI has deteriorated. We unpack the strength-weakness crosscurrents and their implications for Japanese equities and B...

📊 This week (Aug 23-30), the RBA and Riksbank both held rates with hawkish undertones, while new Fed Chair Warsh signaled at Jackson Hole that easing won't come easily. 📈 US personal income stayed resilient even as consumer sentiment plunged to 51.7. In Japan, Tokyo core CPI accelerated for a second month and payroll employment extended a 53-month streak. 💡 A week of strength and weakness moving side by side, broken down for investors. ⚠️ Next week's key event: the US August jobs report on Sep 4. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/ECy30v2OoJY

This week's top 3 US macro releases, explained📊 💼 Labor: Initial jobless claims at 203K — near historic lows, though the 4-week average is drifting up📈 🛢️ Energy: WTI crude jumped to $87.21/bbl, up 36% YoY. Distillate inventories are 14% below the 5-year average⚠️ 🏦 Fed Liquidity: Balance sheet roughly flat, but the reverse repo cushion has shrunk to just $362B💡 Labor, energy, and liquidity are sending mixed signals this week. We break down what to watch in next week's jobs report and CPI data. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/GQSC8O0lUZw

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first Jackson Hole address. 📊 Capex surged 9% YoY and S&P 500 profits jumped over 20%, showing real economic resilience. ⚠️ Yet PCE inflation sits at 3.7%, with 54% of price components still rising above 3%. 💡 Warsh declared he's abandoning forward guidance, favoring "discipline, not decision." We break down what this means for rates, markets, and the dollar. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/V_KJjOO62Ww

📊 University of Michigan's final August Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 51.7, down 6.3% MoM and 11.2% YoY. 📉 Both current conditions and expectations weakened, with Republicans, older, and lower/middle-income households hit hardest. 💡 Yet 1-year inflation expectations eased from 4.2% to 4.0%, and 5-year expectations held at 3.3% for a third straight month. ⚠️ This mixed signal of weak sentiment and stabilizing inflation expectations complicates the Fed's next move. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/ODPTbQ0B1EY

📊 A deep dive into Japan's Tokyo-area CPI for August 2026, released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC) on August 28, 2026. Headline CPI +1.9%, core (ex-fresh food) +1.8%, and core-core (ex-fresh food & energy) +2.0%—all accelerating from July. 💡 Notably, core-core inflation accelerated even as energy prices fell 2.0% year-on-year, and now exceeds the latest national print of 1.9%. As Japan's earliest inflation indicator, this carries real weight for BOJ policy expectations. ⚠️ But temporary factors—like childcare subsidy base effects and decelerating telecom/lodging prices—complicate a simple 'inflation is accelerating' narrative. We break down both sides. Next national CPI (August) releases September 18. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://you

📊 Eurostat's July 31 flash estimate shows euro area annual inflation accelerating to 2.9%, up from 2.8% in June. 🔥 The main driver: energy prices, whose annual rate jumped from 8.5% to 10.0%. 💡 Meanwhile, core inflation (ex-energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) held steady at 2.2%, suggesting underlying pressures haven't intensified. ⚠️ Services inflation ticked up from 3.2% to 3.3%, a sign wage-driven stickiness hasn't fully faded. 🌍 Country divergence remains wide — Germany accelerated to 2.8% while Greece fell sharply to 2.7%. We break down what this means for the ECB's next move and the euro, with balanced analysis. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/EBozPrNy6K0

The Bank of Japan held its policy rate steady at around 1.0%, with Board Member Takata's proposal to hike to 1.25% rejected by majority vote. 📊 Governor Ueda stated the BOJ needs to be "more mindful than ever" of upside inflation risks. ⚠️ He explicitly said the BOJ aims to avoid being "behind the curve." 📈 The Outlook Report expanded risk factors from one (Middle East tensions) to three, adding AI-related demand and FX volatility. 💡 This deep dive decodes the gap between the hold decision and Ueda's increasingly hawkish rhetoric. This video is for informational purposes only. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/hA4160jra6g

📊Statistics Norway (SSB) released its latest M3 monetary aggregate data. Overall money-holding sector growth slowed to 6.9% in June from 8.8% in February. ⚠️The real story: non-financial corporations' M3 growth nearly halved, from 7.0% in March to 3.5% in June. 📈Meanwhile, other financial corporations held steady at 11-12% growth. 💡This widening gap between the real economy and the financial sector could be an early signal of tightening monetary conditions biting harder into the corporate sector. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/9aZ6tcxj0zQ

📊 A deep dive into the Bank of Japan's July 31, 2026 Outlook Report. The FY2026 core CPI forecast was cut to +2.5%, down 0.3pt from April's +2.8%. 📉 But the downgrade is driven by a temporary government energy subsidy — the core-core measure (ex-energy) was barely revised, down just 0.1pt. 📈 Meanwhile, real GDP was revised UP to +0.6%, supported by robust global AI-related demand. 💡 Crucially, the BOJ retained its pledge to "continue raising the policy rate." We unpack what the numbers really mean for JGB yields and the yen. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/NMHgieTYQzc

A deep dive into the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest Table D3 monetary aggregates. 📊 Broad Money grew +7.98% YoY (seasonally adjusted), up from +5.28% in June 2024 — a 3-year acceleration to the highest level in the observable window. 📈 M3 reaccelerated to +0.77% MoM in June from just +0.35% in May. ⚠️ Meanwhile, money market corporations' borrowings fell -4.95% and other authorised financial institutions' assets dropped -6.19%, the sharpest decline in 35 months. 💡 We break down what this dual trend of expanding bank deposits and shrinking non-bank funding means for RBA policy and the Australian dollar. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/I2lc7AQMNGA

Tokyo's July CPI (mid-month flash estimate) showed headline, core, and core-core inflation all accelerating from June. 📊 Headline CPI: +2.0% YoY (up from +1.7%) 📊 Core-core CPI: +2.0%, touching the BOJ's target level (up from +1.9%) 💡 Tokyo data leads the national print by about a month, and this reading already exceeds the nation's most recent confirmed June figures. ⚠️ However, part of the acceleration reflects fading energy base effects, while services inflation rose only modestly. 📈 We break down what this means for BOJ policy, JGB yields, and the yen ahead of the August 21 national CPI release. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/_Jo-0tAGkVs

📊 A deep dive into Japan's May 2026 Industrial Production Index (IIP) confirmed report from METI. Production, shipments, inventories, and the inventory ratio were all revised down from the flash estimate, with pharmaceuticals and food items emerging as hidden drags. 📉 Production capacity has now contracted YoY for 27 straight months, while the operating ratio rose for the first time in 4 months. 💡 The inventory ratio's YoY reading flipped from +0.3% to -0.8%, hinting the inventory cycle may be nearing its final stage. ⚠️ We break down the sector divergence, inventory cycle position, and capacity/utilization story behind this nuanced release. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/dfoEpw_6eLk

Japan's Statistics Bureau released the June 2026 Labor Force Survey. 📊 The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held at 2.5% for a 7th straight month, reflecting historically tight labor conditions. But cracks are emerging. 📉 Seasonally adjusted employment fell -360K month-on-month, and the hospitality sector — long a symbol of labor shortage — reversed into decline. 💡 Regular employment extended its 32-month growth streak, while the non-labor-force population surged +430K. ⚠️ We break down what this means for the BOJ's rate path and Japan markets. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/kAu1Bf_VOok

Apple reported fiscal Q3 2026 results with record June-quarter revenue and EPS. 📊 Revenue hit $109.4B (+16% YoY), diluted EPS $2.02 (+29% YoY) — both June-quarter records. 💡 But gross margin of 50.1% included a ~2pp tariff refund benefit, and EPS included $0.11 from the same one-time item. 📈 iPhone, Mac, and Services all posted double-digit growth records, while iPad revenue fell 5.9% YoY. ⚠️ R&D spend jumped 32.3% YoY, and buybacks fell 12% over nine months — signaling a shift in capital allocation. We break down what's structural strength and what's a one-time boost. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/EodL4zCfdWE