Nakajima Quant Desk - English

📊 This week's three key US macro reports, explained. Initial jobless claims held at a historically low 206,000, signaling labor market resilience. 📈 But the Fed's overnight reverse repo buffer has drained to just $525 million weekly, while Treasury's cash rebuild squeezed bank reserves by $287 billion year-over-year. ⚠️ Energy supply stayed firm even as demand softened 4% YoY. 💡 Labor, energy, and liquidity — three crosscurrents investors should watch heading into next week. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/XLnPSXDUkX0

📊 US nonfarm payrolls surged +162,000 in August, far outpacing the prior 12-month average of just 31,000. ✅ June and July payrolls revised up a combined +55,000 ✅ Unemployment held steady at 4.1%, part-time-for-economic-reasons fell 414,000 ⚠️ But the Information sector shed 23,000 jobs and teen unemployment jumped to 14.1% 💡 A broadening, resilient labor market—but with pockets of weakness. We break down what it means for the Fed's rate path. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/pIT8NBwLCW4

📊 The US goods & services trade deficit widened 24.4% to $88.6B in July 2026, up $17.4B from June, per the Census Bureau and BEA (FT-900). 📈 The standout: capital goods imports surged $14.4B in a single month — computers +$6.9B, computer accessories +$6.6B, semiconductors +$1.2B — pointing to an AI/data-center capex boom. YTD computer imports have nearly doubled YoY. 📉 Exports fell $6.6B, dragged by crude oil (-$4.5B) and nonmonetary gold (-$3.9B). 💡 Yet the year-to-date deficit is DOWN 29.6% vs 2025, with exports up 12%. A complex report mixing one-month deterioration with structural improvement. ⚠️ Country mix is shifting: Mexico ($27.5B) now tops the deficit table, with Vietnam and Taiwan ahead of...

📊 Broadcom (AVGO) reported fiscal Q3 2026 results: revenue of $29.6B (+86% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $3.32 (+96% YoY) — both record highs. 🚀 The engine: AI semiconductor revenue hit $16.7B, up 221% YoY and 54% QoQ. ⚠️ But infrastructure software grew just 29%, revealing rising concentration risk on a single AI-driven segment. 💡 Q4 guidance calls for $34.8B in revenue (+93% YoY). Whether AI demand sustains this pace is the next key question. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/vzxm4Vm-UzQ

📊 A deep dive into the Fed's July Beige Book. Districts reporting solid job gains jumped from just 1 last time to 5 this cycle, while price growth cooled or held steady across all 12 Districts. 📈 A rare Fed-friendly combo: labor market resilience plus broadening disinflation. ⚠️ But Minneapolis and Richmond show firms struggling to pass through cost increases, squeezing margins. Consumer spending is splitting K-shaped by income, and agriculture worsened in 6+ Districts. 💡 How Chair Warsh's FOMC reads these anecdotes could shape the pace of future rate cuts. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/qcm68ZKjDbI

📊 The U.S. Census Bureau's July durable goods report shows total new orders at $663.6B, up 0.9% and rebounding from two straight monthly declines. 📈 Core capital goods shipments — the real-time gauge of capex execution — rose over 1% for a second consecutive month. ⚠️ But core capital goods orders, the forward-looking proxy for business investment, came in essentially flat after May and June's strong gains. 💡 Volatile transportation and defense orders inflated the headline number. We break down what it really means for investors. Next release: Oct 2. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/yR9VS9E3x04

The Bank of Japan released July 2026 Monetary Base data on Aug 4. The year-on-year decline widened to -13.8%, the 11th straight month of deepening contraction. 📉 Current account balances fell -16.6% and reserve balances -15.3%, confirming BOJ's quantitative tightening is proceeding on schedule via reduced JGB purchases. Meanwhile, banknotes in circulation fell only -1.9% — cash demand itself is not collapsing. 💡 We break down what this means for JGB yields and the yen. 📊 ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/QjAed3xV3Lg

📊 A deep dive into the July 2026 JOLTS report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Job openings rose slightly to 7.3 million. But hires fell 278,000, quits dropped 157,000, and the quits rate slipped to 1.9%. 📉 Layoffs also fell by 119,000, pointing to a synchronized slowdown in both hiring and firing -- a "low-churn" labor market. 💡 Healthcare stayed hot at a 5.7% openings rate, while professional & business services openings fell for a 4th straight month. ⚠️ We break down what this means for Fed rate cuts, the dollar, and equities -- with balanced analysis on both sides. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/4FC_-eKugDc

📊 Japan's Cabinet Office reported the Consumer Confidence Index rose to 35.5 in August, up 0.6pt for a 4th straight month. 📈 The durable-goods buying-time sub-index jumped 1.9pt to its highest since February. 📉 But income growth and employment expectations both declined for the first time in months. Expectations for 5%+ inflation plunged 6.0pt. 💡 We break down the split between headline improvement and internal cracks, plus what it means for BOJ policy and consumer stocks. ⚠️ Next release (September data) is due early October — watch whether income/employment sentiment rebounds. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/EF9r7a4wpjM

📊 Deep dive into Brazil's weekly Focus Market Readout survey (data as of Aug 28, 2026). Selic rate forecasts are unchanged across every horizon, with the 2029 estimate flat at 10.00% for 17 straight weeks. 📉 Yet the 2026 IPCA inflation forecast remains at 5.01%, still above the BCB's 4.5% tolerance ceiling. GDP growth was cut for a second week, and fiscal deficit forecasts widened too. 💹 We break down what this means for BRL/JPY carry trades and risks for Japanese investors. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/8baYdhYna44

📊 Deep dive into Japan's July 2026 Industrial Production Index (preliminary) released by METI. Production rose 0.1% MoM, marking a 4th straight monthly gain, yet the official assessment remains "flat/directionless." 💡 Beneath the surface weakness, semiconductor manufacturing equipment output surged +45.3% YoY, and capital goods shipments jumped +13.5% YoY—signaling robust capex momentum. Meanwhile, operating ratio jumped +4.1% MoM even as production capacity fell for a 28th consecutive month—a structural shift in Japan's manufacturing base. ⚠️ The forecast survey points to +6.4% for August, but realization ratios have persistently disappointed, and the business sentiment DI has deteriorated. We unpack the strength-weakness crosscurrents and their implications for Japanese equities and B...

📊 This week (Aug 23-30), the RBA and Riksbank both held rates with hawkish undertones, while new Fed Chair Warsh signaled at Jackson Hole that easing won't come easily. 📈 US personal income stayed resilient even as consumer sentiment plunged to 51.7. In Japan, Tokyo core CPI accelerated for a second month and payroll employment extended a 53-month streak. 💡 A week of strength and weakness moving side by side, broken down for investors. ⚠️ Next week's key event: the US August jobs report on Sep 4. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/ECy30v2OoJY

This week's top 3 US macro releases, explained📊 💼 Labor: Initial jobless claims at 203K — near historic lows, though the 4-week average is drifting up📈 🛢️ Energy: WTI crude jumped to $87.21/bbl, up 36% YoY. Distillate inventories are 14% below the 5-year average⚠️ 🏦 Fed Liquidity: Balance sheet roughly flat, but the reverse repo cushion has shrunk to just $362B💡 Labor, energy, and liquidity are sending mixed signals this week. We break down what to watch in next week's jobs report and CPI data. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/GQSC8O0lUZw

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first Jackson Hole address. 📊 Capex surged 9% YoY and S&P 500 profits jumped over 20%, showing real economic resilience. ⚠️ Yet PCE inflation sits at 3.7%, with 54% of price components still rising above 3%. 💡 Warsh declared he's abandoning forward guidance, favoring "discipline, not decision." We break down what this means for rates, markets, and the dollar. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/V_KJjOO62Ww

📊 University of Michigan's final August Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 51.7, down 6.3% MoM and 11.2% YoY. 📉 Both current conditions and expectations weakened, with Republicans, older, and lower/middle-income households hit hardest. 💡 Yet 1-year inflation expectations eased from 4.2% to 4.0%, and 5-year expectations held at 3.3% for a third straight month. ⚠️ This mixed signal of weak sentiment and stabilizing inflation expectations complicates the Fed's next move. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/ODPTbQ0B1EY

📊 A deep dive into Japan's Tokyo-area CPI for August 2026, released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC) on August 28, 2026. Headline CPI +1.9%, core (ex-fresh food) +1.8%, and core-core (ex-fresh food & energy) +2.0%—all accelerating from July. 💡 Notably, core-core inflation accelerated even as energy prices fell 2.0% year-on-year, and now exceeds the latest national print of 1.9%. As Japan's earliest inflation indicator, this carries real weight for BOJ policy expectations. ⚠️ But temporary factors—like childcare subsidy base effects and decelerating telecom/lodging prices—complicate a simple 'inflation is accelerating' narrative. We break down both sides. Next national CPI (August) releases September 18. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://you

📊 Eurostat's July 31 flash estimate shows euro area annual inflation accelerating to 2.9%, up from 2.8% in June. 🔥 The main driver: energy prices, whose annual rate jumped from 8.5% to 10.0%. 💡 Meanwhile, core inflation (ex-energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) held steady at 2.2%, suggesting underlying pressures haven't intensified. ⚠️ Services inflation ticked up from 3.2% to 3.3%, a sign wage-driven stickiness hasn't fully faded. 🌍 Country divergence remains wide — Germany accelerated to 2.8% while Greece fell sharply to 2.7%. We break down what this means for the ECB's next move and the euro, with balanced analysis. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/EBozPrNy6K0

The Bank of Japan held its policy rate steady at around 1.0%, with Board Member Takata's proposal to hike to 1.25% rejected by majority vote. 📊 Governor Ueda stated the BOJ needs to be "more mindful than ever" of upside inflation risks. ⚠️ He explicitly said the BOJ aims to avoid being "behind the curve." 📈 The Outlook Report expanded risk factors from one (Middle East tensions) to three, adding AI-related demand and FX volatility. 💡 This deep dive decodes the gap between the hold decision and Ueda's increasingly hawkish rhetoric. This video is for informational purposes only. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/hA4160jra6g

📊Statistics Norway (SSB) released its latest M3 monetary aggregate data. Overall money-holding sector growth slowed to 6.9% in June from 8.8% in February. ⚠️The real story: non-financial corporations' M3 growth nearly halved, from 7.0% in March to 3.5% in June. 📈Meanwhile, other financial corporations held steady at 11-12% growth. 💡This widening gap between the real economy and the financial sector could be an early signal of tightening monetary conditions biting harder into the corporate sector. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/9aZ6tcxj0zQ

📊 A deep dive into the Bank of Japan's July 31, 2026 Outlook Report. The FY2026 core CPI forecast was cut to +2.5%, down 0.3pt from April's +2.8%. 📉 But the downgrade is driven by a temporary government energy subsidy — the core-core measure (ex-energy) was barely revised, down just 0.1pt. 📈 Meanwhile, real GDP was revised UP to +0.6%, supported by robust global AI-related demand. 💡 Crucially, the BOJ retained its pledge to "continue raising the policy rate." We unpack what the numbers really mean for JGB yields and the yen. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/NMHgieTYQzc

A deep dive into the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest Table D3 monetary aggregates. 📊 Broad Money grew +7.98% YoY (seasonally adjusted), up from +5.28% in June 2024 — a 3-year acceleration to the highest level in the observable window. 📈 M3 reaccelerated to +0.77% MoM in June from just +0.35% in May. ⚠️ Meanwhile, money market corporations' borrowings fell -4.95% and other authorised financial institutions' assets dropped -6.19%, the sharpest decline in 35 months. 💡 We break down what this dual trend of expanding bank deposits and shrinking non-bank funding means for RBA policy and the Australian dollar. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/I2lc7AQMNGA

📊 A deep dive into Japan's May 2026 Industrial Production Index (IIP) confirmed report from METI. Production, shipments, inventories, and the inventory ratio were all revised down from the flash estimate, with pharmaceuticals and food items emerging as hidden drags. 📉 Production capacity has now contracted YoY for 27 straight months, while the operating ratio rose for the first time in 4 months. 💡 The inventory ratio's YoY reading flipped from +0.3% to -0.8%, hinting the inventory cycle may be nearing its final stage. ⚠️ We break down the sector divergence, inventory cycle position, and capacity/utilization story behind this nuanced release. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/dfoEpw_6eLk

Japan's Statistics Bureau released the June 2026 Labor Force Survey. 📊 The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held at 2.5% for a 7th straight month, reflecting historically tight labor conditions. But cracks are emerging. 📉 Seasonally adjusted employment fell -360K month-on-month, and the hospitality sector — long a symbol of labor shortage — reversed into decline. 💡 Regular employment extended its 32-month growth streak, while the non-labor-force population surged +430K. ⚠️ We break down what this means for the BOJ's rate path and Japan markets. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/kAu1Bf_VOok

Tokyo's July CPI (mid-month flash estimate) showed headline, core, and core-core inflation all accelerating from June. 📊 Headline CPI: +2.0% YoY (up from +1.7%) 📊 Core-core CPI: +2.0%, touching the BOJ's target level (up from +1.9%) 💡 Tokyo data leads the national print by about a month, and this reading already exceeds the nation's most recent confirmed June figures. ⚠️ However, part of the acceleration reflects fading energy base effects, while services inflation rose only modestly. 📈 We break down what this means for BOJ policy, JGB yields, and the yen ahead of the August 21 national CPI release. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/_Jo-0tAGkVs

Apple reported fiscal Q3 2026 results with record June-quarter revenue and EPS. 📊 Revenue hit $109.4B (+16% YoY), diluted EPS $2.02 (+29% YoY) — both June-quarter records. 💡 But gross margin of 50.1% included a ~2pp tariff refund benefit, and EPS included $0.11 from the same one-time item. 📈 iPhone, Mac, and Services all posted double-digit growth records, while iPad revenue fell 5.9% YoY. ⚠️ R&D spend jumped 32.3% YoY, and buybacks fell 12% over nine months — signaling a shift in capital allocation. We break down what's structural strength and what's a one-time boost. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/EodL4zCfdWE

📊 Amazon reported Q2 2026 results: net sales of $200.6B (+20% YoY) and operating income of $27.5B (+43% YoY). AWS accelerated to 37% growth — its fastest pace in 18 quarters — hitting a $169B annualized run rate. 💡 But net income of $62.6B was largely driven by a $53.4B non-operating gain tied to Amazon's Anthropic investment. ⚠️ Trailing-12-month free cash flow flipped negative to -$7.6B as AI-driven capex surged to $169.0B. We break down the strength and the hidden strain behind this quarter's numbers. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/J3xqJODR2jA

The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75%. Governor Andrew Bailey acknowledged Middle East-driven energy price spikes could push inflation above 3% by year-end, but stressed limited evidence of second-round effects and continuing underlying disinflation. 📊 June CPI at 2.6%, below the April forecast 📉 Services inflation eased from 4.5% to 3.6% ⚠️ A minority of MPC members voted for a hike; risks remain skewed upward When asked if the BOE was "edging toward a hike," Bailey firmly pushed back: "Please do not leave this room thinking that." 💡 Deep dive covers the three scenarios, QT market impact, and the nuanced tone shifts across the Q&A. ▶️ Full video on YouTube...

📊 The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% for a sixth straight meeting. 🔥 But the vote split shifted sharply — hawkish dissent tripled from 1 to 3 members (8-1 to 6-3) versus April. 📉 June CPI eased to 2.6%, undershooting forecasts, yet 📈 inflation is projected to reaccelerate to 3.2% by Q4 2026. 💡 The Middle East energy shock and its second-round effects remain the key swing factor for GBP, gilts, and future BOE policy. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/Y-6C9f9x95g

📊 Deep dive into the BEA's June 2026 Personal Income and Outlays report, released July 30. Core PCE inflation cooled to 3.3% YoY (from 3.4%), with the monthly pace decelerating sharply to just 0.1%. Headline PCE actually turned negative at -0.1% MoM, driven by a $48.1B drop in gasoline spending. 💡 But beneath the surface, personal income growth stalled from 0.7% to 0.2% MoM, and the saving rate fell from 3.0% to 2.7%. Real PCE accelerated to 0.4%, showing resilient consumer demand. ⚠️ We unpack this two-sided report — welcome disinflation vs. a softening income base — and what it means for the Fed's rate path. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/Wis17sq-YPE

A deep dive into the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis' Q2 2026 GDP Advance Estimate. 📊 Real GDP grew at a 1.5% annualized rate, down from 2.1% in Q1 📈 Real final sales to private domestic purchasers accelerated from 1.7% to 3.9% ⚠️ The gross domestic purchases price index jumped from 3.6% to 5.7%, and headline PCE inflation rose to 5.1% 💡 Yet core PCE (ex food & energy) cooled from 4.4% to 3.4% We break down the divergence between headline deceleration and resilient private demand, and what it means for the Fed's next move. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/KT5QmBUFYvA

The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on June 17, in a 7-2 vote. 📊 The real story is the vote split: zero members voted for a cut, while two (Greene and Pill) pushed for a 0.25pp hike. ⚠️ Middle East energy price volatility remains the dominant uncertainty. CPI eased to 2.8% in May but is expected to climb back above 3% later this year. 💡 A loosening labour market is containing second-round effects, even as household inflation expectations rise. We break down both sides of the data. Next meeting: July 30. Full analysis of implications for GBP and gilts inside. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/oAQxu

Japan's Cabinet Office released the July 2026 Consumer Confidence Survey, showing the headline index at 34.9 (+1.1pt), the third straight monthly rise. The official assessment was upgraded from "weakening" to "showing signs of picking up." 📊 Employment sentiment (+1.7pt) led the gain — but the underlying shift reflects fading pessimism, not rising optimism. Durable goods purchase timing remains stuck at 25.6, the weakest of all four sub-indices. 📉 Expectations for 5%+ inflation eased from 54.0% to 52.1%, hinting that cooling extreme inflation fears may be supporting sentiment. 💡 We break down what this means for BOJ policy and Japan's consumer stocks. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/8639sXRTi5A

Analysis of Japan's Ministry of Finance weekly international securities flow data (Jul 19-25, 2026). 📊 Foreign investors flipped to net buying Japanese equities (+¥912.1bn), sustaining a resilient stock market trend. 📉 But foreign selling of Japanese government bonds surged to -¥1,513.9bn, one of the largest weekly outflows this year. 💡 Japanese investors also turned net sellers of foreign bonds for a second straight week (-¥811.4bn), a shift from the year's buying trend. ⚠️ USD/JPY weakened further to 163.71, even as bond flows suggested repatriation pressure—hinting rate differentials may dominate. A balanced, data-driven look at the tug-of-war between equity resilience and bond market stress. ▶️ Full vi...

📊 A deep dive into Microsoft's FY2026 Q4 earnings. Revenue hit $90.0B (+18%) and GAAP EPS reached $4.81 (+32%)—but non-GAAP EPS grew only 23% to $4.74, revealing reliance on one-time investment gains. 📈 Azure grew 43%, and commercial RPO surged 84% to $678B, showing robust cloud demand. ⚠️ Meanwhile, capex jumped 109.6% to $35.8B, and free cash flow fell 23.2%. 💡 We break down the numbers behind this quarter's strength—and its hidden weight. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/xkgMCkybZ_c

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held his second FOMC press conference. 📊 FOMC voted 9-3 to hold rates at 3.50-3.75% ⚠️ Inflation has stayed above the 2% target for 63 straight months 📈 Meanwhile AI-related capex surged nearly 20% year-over-year 💡 The biggest story: the Fed's quiet abandonment of forward guidance. Treasury yields rose to a top-decile move over the last two decades in just 42 days—without a single rate change from the Fed. We break down what Warsh said, what he avoided saying, and what it means for markets. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/CkkjzYvaN9Q

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on July 15 — a third straight hold. But the standout detail in these minutes: Middle East hostilities reignited in real time, right in the middle of Governing Council's deliberations. 📊 Headline inflation rose to 3.2% in May on gasoline, while core measures held near 2%. 📈 Q2 growth is expected to rebound to about 2.5%, and the Council said the growth-inflation trade-off has diminished. ⚠️ Yet oil prices turned higher again mid-meeting, keeping uncertainty elevated. 💡 A rate cut is possible if US trade curbs hit; hikes are possible if oil-driven inflation broadens. Full breakdown inside. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://yo

Australia's June CPI slowed to 3.8% YoY from 4.0% in May 📉 But the RBA's preferred trimmed mean held flat at 3.6%, while the ex-volatile items CPI accelerated from 3.9% to 4.2% 💡 The headline slowdown was driven mainly by a fuel excise cut and falling oil prices, yet housing and services inflation remain sticky 🏠 We break down both sides of the story—and what it means for RBA rate cuts and the AUD ⚠️ ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/vIprqmOoyJo

📊 Deep dive into Visa's (NYSE: V) Fiscal Q3 2026 earnings, released July 28, 2026. Net revenue hit $11.6B (+14% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS reached $3.32 (+11%), extending double-digit growth. But GAAP operating expenses jumped 19%, personnel costs surged 40%, and a $563M one-time severance charge drove GAAP net income down 6.5% quarter-over-quarter. 💡 Payments volume +10% and cross-border volume +13% show resilient consumer/business spending. ⚠️ Cash fell from $17.2B to $12.4B as Visa repaid $5.6B in senior notes. A balanced, numbers-driven breakdown of the strength and structural risks behind the headline beat. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/eMzrGFoO0Zg

📊 Brazil's June IPCA rose just 0.16% MoM, down sharply from May's 0.58%. 📉 Core inflation (ex food & energy) also collapsed to 0.11%, hinting at broader disinflation. ⚠️ Yet the 12-month rate of 4.64% remains above the central bank's 4.5% ceiling. 💡 Administered prices (electricity tariffs) and sticky labor-intensive services remain a risk. We break down the real interest rate gap (Selic 14.25%) and what it means for BRL. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/jC2gY93aDoc

Deep dive into the June 2026 US Durable Goods Orders advance report released July 27 by the Census Bureau. 📊 Headline new orders rose just 0.3% to $334.8B, a modest rebound from May's 4.0% drop. 📈 But core capex orders (nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft) rose 0.9%, extending May's 1.9% gain for a second straight monthly increase. ⚠️ The headline's wild swings trace back to aircraft orders (+167.4% in April, -51.1% in May) — noise, not necessarily weakness. 💡 Backlog grew for the 23rd time in 24 months, while inventories stayed lean versus shipments. A balanced, data-driven read on where US business investment really stands. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/Ekr31apFJ7Q