Unhedged

Britain’s chancellor of the exchequer John Healey will deliver his annual budget on October 28. And with the UK facing the highest borrowing costs in the G7, the spending item he will be most keen to get under control will be the government’s interest payments bill. The FT’s economics commentator Chris Giles tells Katie Martin why dull is good when it comes to public finances.

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Tech stocks and bonds took a kicking on Thursday, adding urgency to a question investors have been asking themselves for months now: is the AI boom about to go splat? Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong sense a great disturbance in the Force. But if the bubble really is about to burst, where can investors run for shelter? Plus, Rob shorts the letter K, and Katie shorts protein recycling.

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US consumers are still in love with buying things, buoyed by stock markets that are near all-time highs. But could sky-high mortgages and diesel prices spoil their shopping spree? And if the strains on the economy continue, what does that mean for the November midterm elections? Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong ask how long the stock market wealth bubble can prop up the US economy. Plus, Rob shorts silly jackets and Katie shorts silly smokers.

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France’s borrowing costs are skyrocketing. And its leading candidates for next April’s presidential elections - on both extremes of the political spectrum - seem alarmingly unalarmed. All of this gives hosts Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong, and markets correspondent Ian Smith, a bad feeling about where things might be headed. So does another eurozone crisis beckon? Plus, Katie and Rob go long Norway and John Le Carré, while Ian shorts oversized cars.

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It’s starting to look like every market is becoming a one-trick pony. Since the summer, stock markets would have been down – were it not for the Big Tech companies galloping ahead on the back of AI. Corporate bond issuance and even the US dollar are also riding high on the AI trade. But what if that pony turns out to be a bucking bronco? Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin saddle up and find out. Plus Rob goes long TIPS, and Katie shorts acronyms… such as TIPS.

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While most people are distracted by the latest blow-up in US Treasuries, our hosts Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong lift the lid on a less watched corner of the debt markets. The world’s hyperscalers – giant companies such as Amazon and Meta – need to borrow as much as they can to build the data centres needed for the AI boom. FT markets reporter Emily Herbert tells us what their elephantine debt issuance has been doing to corporate bond markets around the world. Plus, Katie shorts sniff tests, Emily goes long soup and Rob entrusts his life savings to a superm...

Over the summer, the FT held a revamped version of its stock picking game – think fantasy football for the global equity markets. Some 13,000 people took part – a shocking number considering how unfashionable active fund management has become in the real world. Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong invite their FT Money colleague Nathan Brooker, who runs the competition, to discuss the psychology of stock picking, and whether it has a future in real life. Plus, Nathan shorts holiday spoilers, Katie shorts pesky kids, and Rob throws active investors some love.

The FT’s next stock picking game launch...

Global bond yields took a big leg up on Wednesday, with the US 10-year Treasury now well north of 5 per cent. Could further rises trip up a heavily indebted government? Or perhaps an overleveraged hedge fund, with untold market fallout? Hosts Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong are joined by FT senior markets correspondent Ian Smith. Plus, Rob goes long his own foresight, while Katie extends a long arm of comfort to a banker who sent a career-ending email.

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Investment funds boast triple-digit returns. Retail investors enthusiastically pile in. Then – surprise! – they turn out to be scams… and implode. The story that played out in Istanbul last week may be as old as the city’s Grand Bazaar. But what does it say about financial regulation in Turkey, and should foreign investors be concerned? Host Rob Armstrong catches up with the FT’s Turkey correspondent, John Paul Rathbone. Plus, Rob shorts the 10-year US Treasury, while JP goes for a long swim in the Bosphorus.

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In response to persistently above-target inflation, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates a quarter-point this week. Typically, this would not merit a full podcast. But in our current world – which includes a persistently Fed-baiting US president – this unexpected return to normalcy is something that hosts Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong have chosen to celebrate. Also, Rob goes long the endangered potato, while Katie is long Russian oligarchs bankrolling wedding events. 

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When the Terminator robots come for us all, will there be anywhere safe to run? Certainly not the US Treasury market, where the 10-year yield just broke the totemic 5% level. It’s a sobering thought. But hosts Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong wonder if it’s sobering enough to end the AI stock market mania? Also in the show, Rob and Katie take sartorial long positions on armholes and loafers.

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US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent cowed currency traders this week by claiming anyone shorting the yen was betting against “the house”. But he has failed to will US government borrowing costs lower, while his boss has failed to will the Strait of Hormuz open again. As Brent crude smashes through $100 a barrel, hosts Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin ask what Bessent can actually do to keep yields from continuing to surge. Also, Rob shorts a lunch-disrupting coffee company, and Katie shorts AI headbangers.

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Katie called it – so she claims. There are signs that foreign investors may be losing trust in US assets. This has been the source of a running debate between the hosts Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong on this podcast, and Rob finally concedes she may have a point. Awkwardly for him, he does so in front of a live audience, for a special episode recorded at the FT Weekend Festival in London’s Kenwood House. Plus, Rob goes long a Scotch whisky carry trade, while Katie goes long our lovely Unhedged audience.

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Britain has a problem. Almost half of the country’s working age adults are not saving into a pension at all. So if you know somebody who isn’t thinking enough about their future retirement, it may be time to have a frank conversation with them. In today’s show, Katie Martin talks to two experts about why nobody seems to be taking their pensions seriously enough – Gavin Lewis, managing director at asset management leviathan BlackRock, and the FT’s consumer editor Claer Barrett, who writes our Serious Money personal finance column. Also, Gavin goes long longevity, Katie goes long gold...

Fed chair Kevin Warsh used his speech at the annual Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers to tell bond markets he was serious about keeping a lid on inflation and everyone should calm down. Bond markets responded by pushing long-term borrowing costs to new highs. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong ask what’s up with bond yields? Plus, they go long data centre Nimbys and long the job prospects for PR agencies.

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Canada and the US reached an impasse over trade this week, as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney refused to meet the demands of US President Donald Trump. Today on the show, senior trade writer Alan Beattie joins Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong to discuss the future of tariffs. Also, they go long complaints from farmers, long the AI boom and long Rob saying Katie was right.

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Last week Treasury secretary Scott Bessent directed his department to double its purchase of treasuries, in an attempt to bring down the yield. Of course, it backfired. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin pick apart the Trump administration’s unprecedented behaviour and wonder how long the US can keep borrowing as it has. Also, they go short the dollar and long stockpiling canned food. 

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With Europe’s record-breaking heat and droughts this summer, water levels in Germany's Rhine river have reached historic lows. Today on the show, Katie Martin talks with FT Frankfurt bureau chief Olaf Storbeck about the long-term effects on the economy and how the country is dealing with the crisis. 

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US reserves are the lowest they have been for many decades. Today on the show, Katie Martin and the FT’s Energy Editor Malcolm Moore try to figure out why the market has remained calm and if it will finally freak out. Also they go long Bank of America chief executive Brian Moynihan’s vocabulary and short the sun. 

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It’s been a hot summer, and not just in terms of weather. European and UK equities markets have matched US returns and are at record levels. Today on the show, Katie Martin talks with senior markets correspondent Ian Smith about the surprising returns for the old world. Also they go long Wetherspoon pubs and long implied volatility. 

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Investors were surprised when they learned that the US was selling euros to prop up the yen. But was this support for an ally? Or worries about interest rates at home? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Alphaville reporter Toby Nangle unpack this unusual move. Also, they go long rain and long cheese futures. 

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Today, we're bringing you an episode from another podcast in the FT stable: The Economics Show with Soumaya Keynes

For decades, China accelerated its industrial development through a straightforward bargain: foreign firms invested in China, often through joint ventures, gaining access to the enormous Chinese market, while Chinese companies absorbed western tech and knowhow. Today, that dynamic is changing. China's high-tech industries are now world-leading, and western governments are looking on enviously. So should the US and EU now take a page from China's playbook? Host Soumaya Keynes speaks to John Minnich, assistant professor of international...

Today, we're bringing you an episode from another podcast in the FT stable: The Story of Money.

Jesse Livermore was a legendary trader who made and lost several fortunes in the early 20th century, most famously by shorting the Wall Street crash of 1929. His early life was immortalised in the roman à clef Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefèvre, and his trading insights and stunning successes continue to inspire professional traders and would-be traders to this day. But his life also contains cautionary tales about the ease with which success can morph into failure, an...

The Fed held rates steady on Wednesday, and chair Kevin Warsh commented on the Federal Reserve’s future role in markets. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong try to figure out if Warsh can really have the Fed he says he wants. Also they catch up on their bets on the future of gold and bitcoin. 

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Former Federal Reserve member Stephen Miran and economist Nouriel Roubini just published a paper arguing that the US central bank should pay more attention to the supply of money. But will new Fed chair Kevin Warsh listen? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and FT contributor Brendan Greeley explain the theory of monetarism and why Warsh might be open to its return. Also, they go long task forces and long the correction in tech stocks. 

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JPMorgan has become by far the biggest bank in the US and one of the largest in the world. But how did it do it? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and US banking editor Joshua Franklin talk about the incredible growth of JPMorgan over the past 20 years and ask what will happen when Jamie Dimon retires. Also they go short the Magnificent 7 and long power trips. 

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Prediction markets can tell us what everyone thinks. They can also encourage breaking the law. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong take the measure of a world where you can bet on anything. Also they go long cash and long mansions in London. 

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Stocks offering access to private credit funds have taken off, and crashed, in recent years. Is this the fiery end to a bad idea or a golden chance to buy a piece of a good idea? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong look at the arguments for retail access to private credit. Also they go short The Odyssey and long air conditioning stocks. 

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Five US banks reported earnings this morning and they were all terrific. Today on the show, Lex editor John Foley joins Rob Armstrong to discuss the stunning results for banks and why it’s all part of the AI boom. Also they go long Count Binface again and long hog farms turning into data centres. 

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The US-Iran conflict is back on, inflation is sticky and US interest rates are steady — for now, anyway. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong discuss the quieter Fed under new chair Kevin Warsh, and try to make sense of his silence. Also, they go long ducks and novelty political candidates from outer space. 

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The index of big US software groups has fallen by about 20 percent over the past year, as investors worry that AI will make software businesses obsolete. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin make the case that enterprise software isn’t going anywhere. Also on the show: We go long the one analyst with a sell rating on SpaceX, and long “int-egg-rity” (sorry).

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We’re halfway through the year and the markets are thriving but look different than they did six months ago. The Magnificent Seven are struggling, while chip makers are soaring. Inflation is up but wages are stalling. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong try to figure out where we are and where we’re going. Also they go short the anchovy market and long dogs. 

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The UK is changing leadership. Again. But what will this mean for the economy and for Britain’s debt market? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong speaks with senior markets correspondent Ian Smith about what is going wrong in the UK and whether a new leader can fix it. Also they go long non-tech stocks and long Portugal. 

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Tech stocks went into a swivet early this week, with a variety of big names moving sharply in different directions. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong try to figure out what caused the skittishness, and if it was all the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh’s fault. Also they make opposing bets on gold and bitcoin. 

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The AI boom is tossing equities around like tiny boats. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong ask investor Ruchir Sharma how to ride it all out. Sharma is the chair of Rockefeller International and the author of What Went Wrong with Capitalism. The show was recorded at the FT Weekend Festival in New York. Also they go long quality stocks that are out of the tech spotlight and short sharks. 

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Kevin Warsh delivered his first comments on Wednesday as the new chair of the Federal Reserve. Investors were listening … and the market dropped. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong dissect his remarks about forecasting, the Fed’s balance sheet and more. Also they go short AI model revenues and short SnapChat’s new glasses. 

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Each year the FT Global Bond Summit brings traders, bankers, central bankers and politicians to London to discuss the state and future of debt. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong talks with Katie Martin about her visit to the summit and what she learned. Also they go short bans on social media and long tie games, also known as “draws”. 

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Right now the only thing flowing through the Strait of Hormuz is a caravan of broken promises and fake cease fires. Today on the show, Middle East editor Andrew England joins Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong to discuss US President Donald Trump’s inability to end his own war and what it means for markets. Also they go long English football and long the Great Brotation.

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The market plunged on Friday after a positive jobs report and then rebounded on Monday. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and reporter Daire MacFadden ask why investors seem so jumpy. Also they go short deal trinkets and long young basketball players.  

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Atlantic coast power companies NextEra and Dominion have announced plans to merge, possibly creating a $420bn energy giant along much of the east coast. Is this a good idea? Today on the show, Robert Armstrong speaks with deal reporters James Fontanella-Khan and Oliver Barnes about how AI is creating a new energy landscape. Also they go long Brazil winning the World Cup and long gating private credit. 

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