Economic Indicators with Fexingo: GDP, CPI, PMI, and Reading the Macro Data

In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into a fresh angle on economic indicators: the role of business inventories in shaping GDP growth. With new data showing total business inventories reaching $2.73 trillion as of April 2026, and real GDP growth slowing to 1.6 percent, the hosts explore how inventory builds and draws can mask underlying economic momentum. They discuss why business inventories are a lagging indicator, how destocking can signal a sharp economic slowdown, and what the current inventory-to-sales ratio suggests about future GDP revisions. Lucas shares a concrete example from the 2022-2023 inventory cycle, and Luna connects the dots to...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack a subtle but powerful signal in today's macro data: the widening gap between nominal GDP growth and the CPI. Nominal GDP is running at about 5.0% annualized in early 2026, while CPI inflation has moderated to around 2.5%. That spread — roughly 2.5 percentage points — represents real economic growth, but the composition matters. Lucas breaks down why this divergence is happening: strong consumer spending in services, but weak goods output and a cooling housing sector. They tie it to the latest data: real GDP growth of just 1.6% in Q1 2026, core CPI at 336.1, and...

In this June 2026 episode, Lucas and Luna unpack why the Treasury yield curve is steepening even as the Fed holds rates steady. With the 2-year at 3.66%, the 10-year at 4.45%, and the 30-year at 4.90%, the spread between short and long-term bonds is the widest in years. They explore what this signals about growth expectations, inflation, and the new Fed chair's first meeting. Plus, a look at how this steepening contrasts with the inverted curve of 2023 and what it means for your portfolio.

#YieldCurve #SteepeningYieldCurve #TreasuryBonds #FedPolicy #KevinWarsh #InterestRates #BondMarket #InflationExpectations #EconomicIndicators #GDPGrowth #TenYearTreasury #TwoYearTreasury #ThirtyYearTreasury #InvestmentStrategy #MacroEconomics #BusinessPodcast...

In episode 60 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into a key but often overlooked data point: total business inventories. With inventories hitting over $2.7 trillion in April 2026, they explain how stockpiling signals business confidence and future GDP revisions. Drawing on the latest data, Lucas shows how the inventory-to-sales ratio has crept up from pre-pandemic levels, hinting at potential slowing demand. Luna pushes back on whether inventories are always a lagging indicator, and they debate what the recent 0.5% monthly rise means for Q2 GDP estimates. A concrete look at why warehouse shelves tell us more than headlines do.<...

Lucas and Luna dive into the latest JOLTS data from April 2026, which showed a surprising jump in job openings to 7.6 million—even as hiring remained flat and the unemployment rate stayed at 4.3 percent. They explore what this divergence means for the Fed, wage growth, and whether the labor market is tightening or loosening. Lucas explains why the ratio of openings to unemployed workers matters more than raw numbers, and Luna questions whether JOLTS is still a reliable signal given declining response rates. Tune in for a clear-eyed look at one of the most puzzling data points in the current ec...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore a growing divergence in the macro data: capacity utilization is ticking higher while consumer spending shows signs of strain. With industrial production rising but jobless claims creeping up, they ask whether this is a signal of resilience or a warning of a slowdown. They dive into the latest capacity utilization reading of 76.2 percent, compare it to pre-pandemic averages, and discuss what it means for inflation and the Fed's next move. A must-listen for anyone trying to read the economic tea leaves in mid-2026.

#CapacityUtilization #ConsumerSpending...

In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into capacity utilization, one of the most overlooked leading indicators. With the latest reading at 76.2 percent in May 2026, up slightly from 76.13 percent, they explore why this slow creep matters more than the headline GDP or jobs numbers. They trace the history of capacity utilization as a recession predictor, look at how it behaved before the 2008 and 2020 downturns, and ask whether the current plateau signals an impending slowdown. Lucas also explains why the Fed watches this number closely and how it connects to industrial production and business investment. Luna pushes back on whether...

The economy is growing, unemployment is low, and stocks are near all-time highs. So why are initial jobless claims rising? In Episode 56 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest claims data — 229,000 for the week of June 6, up from 225,000 the prior week and 212,000 a year ago. They explore the gap between headline GDP and the real economy: layoffs are ticking up in sectors like retail, tech, and hospitality, even as industrial production and capacity utilization creep higher. Is this a normal churn or a warning signal? The hosts compare claims trends to the JOLTS job op...

Lucas and Luna dig into capacity utilisation—the measure of how hard factories and mines are running—and explain why it's flashing a subtle warning even as GDP grows. With the May 2026 reading at 76.2%, up slightly from 76.13%, but still below pre-pandemic averages, the hosts explore what this metric tells us about inflation, business investment, and the real slack in the economy. They connect it to the recent jump in wholesale prices and the Fed's tricky path ahead. If you've ever wondered why GDP can look strong while the ground beneath it shifts, this episode is for you.

#Capa...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the growing divergence between real GDP growth and consumer inflation in mid-2026. With GDP annualizing at just 1.6% while CPI hits 4.2% annually—the highest in three years—the hosts unpack what this split signals for household budgets, Federal Reserve policy, and portfolio strategy. They examine specific data points including the May CPI release, the 10-year breakeven rate, and the surprising resilience of job openings despite rising claims. Lucas explains why this macro environment feels different from the 1970s stagflation playbook, and Luna challenges whether the 'soft landing' narr...

GDP is growing at 1.6 percent annualized, but a less-watched number—industrial production—is telling a more interesting story. Lucas and Luna dig into why the factory sector is outperforming services, what capacity utilization at 76.1 percent means for inflation, and how the Iran conflict is reshaping manufacturing supply chains. They connect the dots between the ECB rate hike, the 4.2 percent CPI print, and the real economy humming beneath the headlines. Plus: why this matters for your portfolio as small caps rally 3.1 percent in a week.

#IndustrialProduction #GDP #CapacityUtilization #Manufacturing #SupplyChain #IranConflict #ECB #CPI #SmallCaps #Russell2000 #Economics #MacroData #Inflation #Fede...

Lucas and Luna dig into an uncomfortable economic paradox: the unemployment rate is flat at 4.3%, monthly payrolls keep rising, yet average hourly earnings adjusted for CPI are actually shrinking. They explore how the 4.2% annual CPI print in May has erased wage gains, leaving workers with less purchasing power than a year ago. Lucas walks through the math of real wages, why hourly earnings data can be misleading due to composition effects, and what this means for consumer spending heading into the second half of 2026. They also touch on the ECB's recent rate hike and how energy-driven inflation is squeezing...

In this episode of Economic Indicators, Lucas and Luna dive into the European Central Bank's first rate hike since 2023, announced on June 11, 2026, amid the Iran conflict-driven energy surge. They explore how this ECB move signals a shift in global inflation dynamics, linking it to the recent 4.2% annual CPI rise in the US and the steepening yield curve. Using the 10-year breakeven rate of 2.31%, they discuss what synchronized central bank tightening means for inflation expectations across the Atlantic. Listeners will learn why the ECB's decision matters for US investors and how it connects to the surprising jump in job openings...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack the 10-year breakeven inflation rate—currently at 2.31 percent—and what it reveals about market expectations for future inflation. They compare it to the latest CPI print of 4.2 percent and the core PCE index, explaining why breakevens matter more than headline numbers for investors. The hosts also discuss how the ECB's recent rate hike and energy price shocks are shaping the inflation outlook. A focused, data-driven conversation for anyone trying to read the macro tea leaves.

#10YearBreakeven #Inflation #CPI #PCE #ECB #EnergyPrices #BondMarket #FederalReserve #MacroData #EconomicIndicators #Fexi...

In episode 49 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down the puzzling April JOLTS report: job openings jumped by over 700,000 to 7.6 million, yet hiring barely budged. They explore what this growing gap between vacancies and actual hiring tells us about labor market friction, worker reluctance, and whether the economy is really as strong as the headline numbers suggest. With the unemployment rate stuck at 4.3 percent and initial jobless claims creeping up, the hosts ask if 'slow hiring' is the new normal. A focused, data-driven look at one of the most misunderstood indicators in macroeconomics.

#JobOpenings...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the May 2026 wholesale inflation report that showed a 1.1 percent monthly jump, far above expectations. They explore how surging energy costs, driven by the Iran conflict, are feeding through to producer prices and what this means for future consumer inflation. The hosts connect yesterday's PPI data to the broader economic picture: the 10-year breakeven rate is actually falling, suggesting markets expect this spike to be temporary. But with the ECB hiking rates for the first time since 2023 and U.S. consumer prices running at 4.2 percent annually, is...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the May 2026 Producer Price Index report—wholesale prices surged 1.1% month-over-month, far above expectations, driven by a spike in energy costs linked to the Iran conflict. They discuss why PPI matters as a leading indicator for consumer inflation, how the 10-year breakeven rate is diverging from PPI, and what this means for Fed policy and interest-sensitive sectors. The hosts also connect the data to the ECB's surprise rate hike and the widening gap between industrial production and capacity utilization. A focused look at a single data point th...

On this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which has fallen to 2.29 percent from 2.34 percent in just a few days. They explore what this market-based measure says about investor expectations versus the official CPI reading of 4.2 percent annual inflation. The hosts discuss how breakeven rates reflect real-time sentiment, why they sometimes diverge from headline CPI, and what the recent dip might mean for Fed policy and bond markets. Tune in for a focused breakdown of one of the most underappreciated signals in macro data.

#BreakevenInflation #InflationExpectations #10YearTreasury #CPI...

Lucas and Luna examine the latest CPI print showing 4.2% annual inflation in May 2026 — the highest in three years — and dig into what's really driving it: an energy-price surge connected to global supply shocks and the ECB's first rate hike since 2023. They break down the gap between headline and core CPI, explain why breakeven inflation rates matter now more than ever, and explore what higher energy costs mean for Fed policy, consumer expectations, and the broader economic outlook. Specific data points include the May CPI release, the 10-year breakeven rate holding at 2.34%, and the ECB's decision to lift rates amid Iran...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzling disconnect: the economy is growing, unemployment is low, yet initial jobless claims have jumped to 225,000 as of late May 2026—up from 212,000 the week before. They explore what's driving the increase, from sector-level layoffs to seasonal adjustment quirks, and what it might signal about the labor market's health. Using data on continued claims and the quits rate, they debate whether this is a blip or the start of a trend. If you've been watching the headlines about consumer sentiment souring and inflation staying sticky, this ep...

Episode 43 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzling disconnect: GDP is growing, unemployment is low, yet the New York Fed's latest survey shows household financial worries hitting their highest level since July 2022. They unpack why the sentiment data matters more than GDP for the real economy, and what it signals for consumer spending and the Fed's next move. Plus, how the May CPI reading of 4.2 percent annual inflation feeds into the anxiety. A focused look at a key micro-macro divide.

#ConsumerSentiment #NewYorkFed #GDP #CPI #Inflation #HouseholdFinances #MacroData #FedPolicy #ConsumerSpending #EconomicIndicators #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest business inventories data, which hit $2.71 trillion in March 2026. They explain why inventories rising faster than sales is historically a leading recession signal, especially with capacity utilisation stuck at 76.1 percent. Using the recent JOLTS job openings surge and the yield curve steepening as context, they discuss whether the economy is headed for a mid-cycle slowdown or something more serious. Lucas walks through the inventory-to-sales ratio and why it matters for GDP revisions, while Luna pushes back on whether this time is different given supply-chain normalization...

GDP is growing at 1.6 percent annualised, the unemployment rate is 4.3 percent, and payrolls keep rising. So why did the New York Fed's latest survey show household financial worries hitting their highest level since July 2022? Lucas and Luna dig into the disconnect between top-line macro data and what families are actually feeling. They look at the gap between nominal GDP growth and real wage gains, the surge in long-term unemployment that official jobless numbers miss, and why the ten-year breakeven inflation rate falling to 2.35 percent might signal that consumers are more pessimistic than the headline CPI suggests. If you have...

Episode 40 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo digs into the New York Fed's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows household worries over finances hitting their highest level since July 2022. Lucas and Luna explain why inflation expectations among consumers now diverge from official CPI data, and why that gap matters for the Fed's next move. They connect the survey to real GDP growth of just 1.6 percent and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate dipping to 2.35 percent. The hosts explore how sticky wage expectations and higher long-run inflation views could keep the Fed on hold through summer 2026. A focused conversation on the...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows household worries over finances hitting their highest level since July 2022. They explore how this shift in consumer sentiment is beginning to affect spending patterns, savings rates, and even the Federal Reserve's policy path. With the May jobs report due Friday and the S&P 500 down 2.4% in the past five days, the hosts connect the dots between rising anxiety and real economic data like the 4.3% unemployment rate and the 7.6 million job openings from JOLTS. They discuss...

The S&P 500 is at 7,384 and the Nasdaq has dropped over five percent in five days, yet real GDP grew at 1.6 percent annualized in Q1 2026 and the unemployment rate is a low 4.3 percent. Lucas and Luna unpick this apparent contradiction by looking at the composition of GDP growth, the surge in job openings to 7.6 million, and what the bond market is pricing in via the ten-year yield at 4.54 percent. They explain why the stock sell-off isn't contradicting the macro data — it's reading a different signal entirely. A grounded conversation about what markets are seeing that GDP alone doesn't show.

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down the surprising steepening of the yield curve in mid-2026. With the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.54 percent and the two-year at 3.62 percent, the spread has widened past 90 basis points after being inverted for over two years. What does this signal about growth expectations, Fed policy, and the risk of a recession? The hosts examine the role of term premiums, the impact of the Iran conflict on inflation expectations, and why a steepening curve doesn't always mean 'all clear' for the economy. They also discuss how investors should...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into capacity utilisation—an often-overlooked metric that reveals how much industrial slack the economy really has. With the latest reading stuck at 76.1 percent, well below the long-run average of 80 percent, the hosts explain why factories aren't running hot despite decent GDP growth. They connect this to the tepid inflation picture, the Fed's cautious stance, and what it means for investors. Lucas walks through the data from April 2026, contrasts it with the 2021-2022 rebound, and explains why capacity utilisation tends to peak before recessions. Luna asks whether the ma...

Lucas and Luna dig into the striking data showing the yield curve is steepening—the 10-year Treasury hit 4.54 percent and the 30-year touched 5.00 percent—while short-term rates stay elevated. They explore whether this signals the economy is healing, or if it reflects war-risk premiums and tariff uncertainty. Using the latest CPI, jobs, and GDP data from June 2026, they unpack what the curve's shape means for growth expectations and Federal Reserve policy. A specific, data-driven look at one of the most watched fixed-income signals.

#YieldCurve #TreasuryYields #FederalReserve #Inflation #GDP #CPI #JobsReport #JOLTS #LongTermRates #SteepeningCurve #BusinessCycle #EconomicsExplained #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Macr...

Episode 34 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo dives into total business inventories—the $2.71 trillion number that often flashes warning before a downturn. Lucas and Luna break down why inventories rose 0.9% in March 2026 even as consumer spending softens, what the inventory-to-sales ratio is signaling, and how this metric differs from GDP or jobs data. They reference the May jobs report preview and the jump in jobless claims to 225,000. A specific, data-driven look at a macro indicator that doesn't make headlines but leads the cycle.

#BusinessInventories #InventoryCycle #RecessionSignal #LeadingIndicators #MacroData #SupplyChain #GDP #JoblessClaims #ConsumerSpending #EconomicIndicators #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #LucasAndLuna #InventoryToSalesRatio #Ma...

Lucas and Luna dig into the latest data showing long-term unemployment is surging in the U.S., even as headline job numbers look solid. With the unemployment rate stuck at 4.3% and initial jobless claims rising to 225,000, they explore the hidden drag on the economy, the Fed's frustration, and why this structural shift matters more than monthly payrolls. They connect the dots to capacity utilization stuck below 77% and the fading GDP momentum, asking whether the labor market is sending a signal the macro data hasn't caught yet.

#LongTermUnemployment #JoblessClaims #LaborMarket #FedPolicy #GDP #CapacityUtilization #Inflation #EconomicIndicators #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a number that keeps catching Lucas's eye: capacity utilisation at 76.1 percent. Even as real GDP growth rebounded to 1.6 percent annualised and job openings surged to 7.6 million, factories are still running well below the 78-to-80 percent range that historically signals pricing power and investment. They trace the history back to the 2015 oil bust and the 2020 pandemic, showing how structural shifts in energy, semiconductors, and reshoring have reset the 'normal' zone. The hosts also unpack what the flat capacity utilisation trend means for the Fed's inflation fight — and fo...

GDP is growing at just 1.6 percent annualized, but industrial production has jumped 0.7 percent in a single month. Lucas and Luna unpack why factories, refineries, and utilities are outperforming the broader economy — and what that means for the Fed, inflation, and your portfolio. They look at capacity utilization hitting 76.1 percent, the inventory rebuild that's driving output, and why this divergence might not last. A sharp, data-driven conversation for anyone trying to read the real economy in June 2026.

#IndustrialProduction #GDP #CapacityUtilization #FederalReserve #Inflation #InventoryCycle #EconomicIndicators #Manufacturing #SupplyChain #BusinessInventories #RealGDP #NominalGDP #ProducerPrices #CoreCPI #LucasAndLuna #FexingoEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

Keep ev...

In episode 30 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the GDP deflator—a measure of economy-wide inflation that often gets overshadowed by CPI and PCE. They explain why the deflator can signal broadening price pressures before they show up in consumer surveys, and how the current gap between real and nominal GDP growth hints at underlying inflation that Fed policy alone may struggle to tame. Using fresh data from the first quarter of 2026—when real GDP grew at just 1.6% annualized while nominal GDP topped $31.8 trillion—they break down what the deflator is telling us about the Iran w...

Lucas and Luna dive into the GDP deflator, a broad measure of inflation that the Fed monitors closely but most people overlook. With nominal GDP at $31.8 trillion and real GDP growth at just 1.6%, they explain how the deflator captures price changes across the entire economy, including investment goods and government spending that CPI misses. They contrast it with the PCE price index, showing why the gap between the two has widened in 2026 due to energy and defense spending tied to the Iran conflict. Using the latest data, they argue that the deflator may be a more honest gauge of...

Lucas and Luna break down the surprise jump in job openings to 7.6 million in April 2026, the highest in nearly two years. They explore why this number jumped despite a flat unemployment rate and what it means for the Fed's interest rate path. The conversation connects JOLTS data to wage growth and inflation, using the latest CPI and average hourly earnings figures. Lucas argues that the job market is tighter than layoff headlines suggest, while Luna highlights the energy-cost distortion from the Iran conflict. This episode turns one data point into a clear read on the labor market's resilience heading...

Job openings surged to 7.6 million in April 2026, the highest in nearly two years, complicating the Federal Reserve's path forward. Lucas and Luna dig into the JOLTS data, unpacking why a hot labor market doesn't necessarily mean rate hikes ahead. They connect the dots to the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — core PCE at 3.3% — and explore how geopolitical shocks like the Iran war are distorting the numbers. With the yield curve still inverted and capacity utilization ticking up, the hosts ask whether the economy is sending mixed signals or just rebalancing. A must-listen for anyone trying to read the macro tea leav...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down why producer prices—specifically the producer price index—may be a more accurate leading indicator of Fed policy than the consumer price index. Using fresh data from June 2026, they explain how rising input costs at the factory level are filtering through to core inflation, even as CPI shows a slight cooldown. Lucas traces the transmission mechanism from PPI to CPI, highlighting recent energy inflation distortions from the Iran war, while Luna questions whether the Fed's focus on core PCE misses the pipeline pressure. A must-listen for inve...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore why producer price index (PPI) data may offer a timelier signal of inflationary pressure than the consumer-focused CPI. With core PCE running at 3.3% annually and energy inflation stubbornly persistent due to the Iran conflict, the hosts examine how input costs for manufacturers—such as energy, raw materials, and logistics—are feeding into wholesale prices before reaching consumers. They reference April's PPI report showing a 0.5% month-over-month increase in final demand goods, and discuss how this pipeline pressure complicates the Fed's rate decision. Drawing on comments from Fed officials Kash...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the growing gap between nominal and real GDP growth. As of Q1 2026, nominal GDP hit $31.82 trillion while real GDP (chained 2017 dollars) reached $24.15 trillion. That $7.67 trillion spread reflects nearly four years of cumulative inflation. The hosts explain why nominal GDP captures total spending power in the economy—including inflation—while real GDP strips out price changes to show actual output. They explore how this divergence affects everything from tax revenue to corporate earnings to household purchasing power. With the Fed still fighting above-target core PCE inflation at 3.3% annu...