The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo: Interest Rates, FOMC Meetings, and Monetary Policy

The yield curve has been inverted for over two years, a classic recession signal that hasn't yet delivered a downturn. Now it's starting to uninvert. Lucas and Luna examine what the Federal Reserve makes of this shift, how it ties to the current Fed funds rate at 3.63 percent, and why a steepening curve might signal something different this cycle. They break down the mechanics of term premiums, the role of the Fed's balance sheet runoff, and what history says about uninversions that precede soft landings. A focused look at one of the most watched—and most confusing—signals in fixe...

In Episode 62 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into a largely overlooked factor shaping Fed policy: the housing market's role in the inflation fight. With shelter costs staying stubborn—CPI shelter up 0.4% in May and the core PCE at 129.6—the hosts explain why the FOMC's models may be underestimating how long rent dynamics will take to cool. They discuss the gap between market-rate rents (already easing) and CPI's 'owners' equivalent rent' measure, which lags by 12 to 18 months. The conversation connects this to the Fed's recent hold at 3.63% effective rate, and what Kevin Warsh's first meet...

With the Fed holding rates steady at 3.63% and commercial real estate distress deepening, the FOMC is quietly rolling out a new standing repo facility designed to prevent a repeat of March 2023. Lucas and Luna break down how the facility works, why it targets smaller banks holding underwater CRE loans, and what Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled in his first meeting about the central bank's willingness to lend. They also examine the Bank of England's rate hold at 3.75% and what that means for dollar liquidity globally. If you've wondered why the Fed is building a new lending safety net even...

With Kevin Warsh presiding over his first FOMC meeting as Fed chair, markets are parsing every signal. The new chair inherits an economy with sticky core CPI at 336.1 and the fed funds rate at 3.63%, while breakeven inflation is edging down. Lucas and Luna break down what Warsh's initial statements reveal about his priorities, how his views differ from Jerome Powell's, and what it means for rate policy through the rest of 2026. They examine his past writings on the neutral rate, his skepticism of forward guidance, and his focus on financial stability. Plus, why the bond market's reaction may be...

In Episode 59 of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna drill into a specific concern that's quietly moved up the Fed's watchlist: how falling commercial real estate values are pressuring regional banks, even as the broader economy shows resilience. They anchor on the May Fed Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS), which showed a sharp tightening of lending standards for commercial real estate loans, and connect it to the Fed's latest financial stability report. Lucas breaks down the mechanism: when property values fall, banks face higher loan-to-value ratios, triggering margin calls or reserve requirements. Luna contrasts this with the 2008...

Episode 58 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo: Lucas and Luna drill into the yield curve's recent uninversion after two years inverted. They break down what the shift from 4.43% on the ten-year to 3.63% on the two-year actually signals for recession risk, bank lending, and Fed policy. With the S&P 500 near 7,500 and markets pricing rate cuts, the hosts ask whether the curve is finally normalizing or just sending a delayed warning. Packed with specific data points and anchored to the latest FOMC thinking, this episode connects the dots between the curve, the neutral rate, and the economy's surprising resilience.<...

With the S&P 500 rallying to 7,511 and the Dow at 52,000, you'd expect inflation expectations to be rising. But the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has actually ticked down to 2.29 percent. Lucas and Luna unpack what the Federal Reserve makes of this disconnect — whether falling breakevens signal a darkening growth outlook beneath the equity rally, and why the Fed might care more about this metric than the latest CPI print. They discuss the mechanics of TIPS versus nominal Treasuries, compare the current 2.29 percent reading to the pre-pandemic normal, and explore how geopolitical risks like the Iran situation shape the bond market's in...

The Federal Reserve is watching a subtle but dangerous signal: consumer inflation expectations are rising even as core inflation moderates. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down the May CPI print and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which hit 2.32 percent on June 15. They explain why the Fed cares more about what people think inflation will be than what it is today — and how that shapes rate decisions. Lucas walks through the sticky psychology of price expectations, from the University of Michigan survey to TIPS market pricing, and why the Fed might pause despite hot headline numbers. Luna challenges wh...

With the May CPI print showing a 4.2% annual increase, the Federal Reserve is confronting a persistent source of price pressure that doesn't appear in the headline number: wage inflation. Lucas and Luna dig into the latest Employment Cost Index data and the Atlanta Fed's wage tracker to explain why services inflation remains stubborn even as goods prices cool. They discuss how the Fed is weighing a tight labor market against the risk of an oil-driven recession, and what it means for the timing of rate cuts. Specific numbers include the 3.8% year-over-year wage growth and the 0.9% quarterly ECI increase. The...

The yield curve has been inverted for over two years — the longest stretch in modern history. But in recent weeks, the 2-year and 10-year Treasury spread has narrowed to just a few basis points. On this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack what a potential uninversion means for the Fed's next move. They discuss the historical track record of curve uninversions as recession signals, why this cycle's inversion has been so stubborn, and how the current data — including a 4.47% 10-year yield and a Fed funds rate at 3.62% — is reshaping the policy debate. Plus, a look at how...

The small-cap index is up 3.1% in the past five days, and the Fed is paying close attention. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down why the rally in the Russell 2000 matters for monetary policy—especially when the ten-year yield is falling and energy-driven wholesale inflation is running hot. They walk through the historical signal in small-cap leadership, what it says about credit conditions and recession odds, and why this week's move might be more about rate-cut hopes than genuine economic strength. Lucas also shares a behind-the-scenes look at how Fexingo stays ad-free. A focused, data-driven conversation for anyone tr...

The Russell 2000 is up over 3% in the last five days while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq drift sideways or dip. Lucas and Luna dig into why small caps are suddenly outpacing large caps, what the Fed sees in this rotation, and whether it signals genuine confidence in a soft landing or just a short-covering bounce in the most battered corner of the market. They look at the rate picture: the ten-year yield has slipped to 4.49, the two-year is at 4.21, and the Fed funds rate sits at 3.62 — a steep but narrowing yield curve that historically favors smaller companies. They also co...

In episode 51 of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna break down what the Fed actually focuses on in the May CPI report — not the headline 4.2% number making the news, but the shift in core services ex-housing and the unexpected jump in used car prices. They connect the inflation data to the Fed's neutral rate debate, the ECB's rate hike, and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticking up to 2.31%. Lucas explains why this CPI print complicates the Fed's path to cutting rates, while Luna pushes back on whether one month of data should change the outlook. A focused conversation on...

With the effective fed funds rate at 3.63% and inflation running hot at 4.2%, the Federal Reserve faces a tricky question: how high is 'high enough'? In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down why the neutral rate of interest — R-star — has become the Fed's obsession in mid-2026. They explore how the post-pandemic economy, energy shocks, and structural changes have likely pushed R-star higher, complicating the FOMC's tightening path. Drawing on recent data including the ten-year breakeven inflation rate of 2.31% and the surprise ECB rate hike, they explain why estimating the neutral rate is more art than science — and why getting it wro...

In episode 49 of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna drill into a single, surprising data point: the UK economy shrank 0.1 percent in April, even as global energy prices surged and the ECB hiked rates for the first time since 2023. They explore why the Fed is quietly watching this—not out of sympathy for Britain, but because UK inflation expectations often lead US ones by about six months. With the US 10-year breakeven inflation rate creeping up to 2.31 percent and the Fed funds rate stuck at 3.62 percent, the hosts ask whether the UK's contraction could be a harbinger of a...

Episode 48 of The Federal Reserve Podcast examines the European Central Bank's surprise rate hike on June 11, 2026 — its first since 2023 — and what it means for the Fed. Hosts Lucas and Luna break down how the Iran conflict is driving energy costs, pushing ECB to act while the Fed stays patient. They explore the divergence in monetary policy, the impact on the dollar and U.S. import prices, and what Fed Chair Powell might signal at the next FOMC meeting. With core PCE still above target and wholesale prices surging, the episode connects global events to domestic rate decisions. Specific data poin...

Episode 47 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo examines how the European Central Bank's surprise rate hike on June 11, 2026—the first since 2023—changes the calculus for the Federal Reserve. Lucas and Luna break down the energy-price shock behind the ECB's move, why it pressures the Fed to stay hawkish, and what the 10-year breakeven inflation drop to 2.29% says about market expectations. They also connect the ECB decision to the May CPI print of 4.2% annual inflation and the Fed's current stance at 3.62% effective rate. A focused analysis of central-bank interdependence in a conflict-driven energy crisis.

#FederalReserve #ECB #RateHike #Mone...

The May CPI print hit 4.2 percent year-over-year, the highest in three years. But Lucas and Luna look beneath the headline number at what's really worrying the Fed: the gap between 4.2 percent and core CPI at 3.6 percent is almost entirely energy. They trace how the Iran war surcharge is feeding through wholesale prices, why the ECB just hiked for the first time since 2023, and whether the Fed is misreading 'transitory' a second time. Tied to the ten-year breakeven inflation rate slipping to 2.29 percent — markets are betting this spike fades, but the Fed isn't so sure.

#CPI #CoreCPI #EnergyPrices #Fe...

With wholesale prices jumping 1.1% in May and consumer inflation hitting 4.2%, Lucas and Luna drill into a specific Fed headache: the producer price index is flashing signals the CPI doesn't capture. They unpack why the PPI surge matters more than the headline CPI number, how energy costs are reshaping the Fed's rate path, and why the ECB's rate hike today adds pressure on the Powell Fed. Plus, they connect the dots to the ten-year breakeven inflation rate ticking up to 2.34%. No fluff, just a focused 10-minute breakdown of what the Fed is actually debating right now.

#FederalReserve #InterestRates...

Today Lucas and Luna dig into the Fed's focus on consumer inflation expectations, especially after the May CPI print showed 4.2% annual inflation – the highest in three years. They explain why the central bank pays more attention to how households and businesses think about future inflation than current CPI data, and how this shapes rate decisions. Drawing on the latest New York Fed household survey, which shows financial anxiety at a two-year high, they explore whether expectations are becoming unanchored. Lucas walks through the difference between 'soft' survey data and 'hard' economic data, and why the Fed sees expectations as a...

On June 10, 2026, the May consumer price index landed at 4.2 percent annual inflation — the highest in three years. Lucas and Luna break down exactly what the Fed sees in that number: which components are sticky, which are transient, and why the bond market's reaction (ten-year breakevens actually dipped) suggests the central bank might not need to hike. They look at the split between core services ex-housing and energy, the New York Fed's household anxiety survey hitting a four-year high, and how the Fed's communications team is likely to frame this ahead of the July FOMC meeting. No hot takes — just what...

The New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations dropped last week showing household financial worries at their highest since July 2022. Lucas and Luna dig into the numbers: the share of households expecting to be worse off a year from now, the spike in perceived difficulty accessing credit, and what these soft sentiment readings mean for the Federal Reserve's policy path heading into the June FOMC meeting. They connect the survey data to the recent ADP jobs report showing 122,000 private payrolls added in May, and explore why the Fed might care more about consumer mood right now than a still-tight...

Lucas and Luna preview the May jobs report due this Friday, June 12, 2026. They dig into the ADP private payrolls number of 122,000, the surprising strength in services hiring, and what the Fed's focus on wage growth means for the interest rate outlook. They also discuss why the New York Fed's household survey showing rising financial anxiety complicates the narrative. A focused, data-driven conversation for anyone trying to understand what the Fed actually pays attention to in the monthly jobs data.

#FederalReserve #JobsReport #MayJobs #ADP #Payrolls #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #LaborMarket #WageGrowth #Inflation #NewYorkFed #HouseholdSurvey #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast #Economy #FOMC<...

Episode 40 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo digs into the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations released June 8, 2026, which showed household financial worries at their highest since July 2022. Lucas and Luna examine what the Fed makes of the disconnect between a still-strong labor market and rising consumer anxiety. They discuss the survey's specific numbers—like the 11.5% probability of missing a minimum debt payment and the drop in year-ahead earnings growth expectations to 2.8%—and how these feed into the Fed's dual mandate. The episode also touches on the implications for the upcoming FOMC meeting, with the fed funds rate...

On this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down the New York Fed's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows household financial worries at their highest since July 2022. They connect the anxiety to the consumer spending data the Fed is watching—and why even strong jobs numbers may not be enough to keep confidence from cracking. Lucas explains the concept of 'precautionary saving' and why a sudden pullback in spending is the one risk that could make the Fed cut rates faster than anyone expects. The conversation is grounded in the latest 10-year br...

The May CPI report showed core services inflation ticking up again, and the Fed is paying close attention. Lucas and Luna break down why services inflation is stickier than goods inflation, what the latest data says, and how the Fed's policy path might be affected. They discuss the role of housing costs, the impact of tariffs on services, and what the breakeven inflation rate signals about market expectations. A focused look at the one number the Fed cares about most right now: core services ex-housing.

#CoreServicesInflation #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #CPI #Inflation #ServicesSector #HousingCosts #Tariffs #BreakevenInflation #InterestRates #FOMC #Economics...

Episode 37 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo dives into the latest tariff escalation announced June 4—fresh U.S. tariffs on 60 economies over forced labor trade practices. Lucas and Luna break down why the Fed is watching this more closely than the headline inflation numbers, how it could feed into sticky core services inflation, and what the bond market's flat 5 percent long-term yield is telling us. They connect the tariff conflict to the Fed's delicate balancing act between labor market strength and price stability, using the April PCE data and the May ADP payrolls as context. Plus, a brief no...

The U.S. just proposed fresh tariffs on 60 economies over forced labor trade practices. Lucas and Luna break down why the Federal Reserve cares about a trade policy move that isn't monetary policy at all. They explain the tariff-inflation feedback loop, how a 3.62 percent federal funds rate interacts with rising import costs, and what the core PCE reading of 129.6 tells us about whether the Fed can hold its line. Plus, a closer look at why the ten-year breakeven inflation rate of 2.36 percent hasn't budged despite the escalation. If you've wondered how trade wars complicate rate decisions, this is the...

Episode 35 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna drill into core services excluding housing — the inflation component the Fed’s own research says is most tied to the labor market. With CPI core rising to 335.4 and the 10-year breakeven stuck at 2.36, they explore why the Fed is watching wage growth in low-productivity service sectors, how the May jobs report will shape the June FOMC decision, and why the recent equity sell-off (Nasdaq down 5.1% in five days) hasn’t changed the Fed’s calculus. No hot takes — just the specific data points the Fed is actually discussing behind clo...

With the May jobs report due Friday and long-term unemployment already trending up, Lucas and Luna unpack what the Fed is actually looking for in the payrolls data. They argue that the headline number matters less than the composition: full-time versus part-time jobs, labor force participation among prime-age workers, and the stubborn rise in the long-term unemployed. Using the latest ADP print of 122,000 private payrolls and the ten-year yield hovering near 4.54%, they explain why the Fed might hold rates steady even if Friday's number comes in hot. They also examine a hidden metric—the share of unemployed who have be...

Episode 33 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo drills into the surge in long-term unemployment — workers jobless for 27 weeks or more. With the May jobs report due tomorrow and the rate of people out of work for half a year rising even as headline payrolls look solid, Lucas and Luna break down why the Fed watches this metric as a signal of labor market scarring. They connect it to the Fed's current hold on rates, the sticky inflation picture, and what the Bernanke-era research on hysteresis means for policy today. A focused, data-driven conversation for anyone trying to read be...

Lucas and Luna dive into the Federal Reserve's quiet focus on the duration of unemployment, not just the headline jobless rate. With long-term unemployment surging to levels not seen since the 2010s, they unpack why this metric matters more than the monthly payrolls number. Using data from the latest JOLTS report and the upcoming May jobs report, they explain how the Fed uses the share of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more to gauge labor market slack and future wage pressures. The episode explores why this indicator is often overlooked by markets, how it influences the Fed's thinking on...

Episode 31 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo dives into a less-noticed but critical data point: the surge in long-term unemployment. With job openings at 7.6 million and private payrolls adding 122,000 in May, you might think the labor market is tight. But Lucas and Luna examine the rising share of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more—a metric the Fed watches closely for signs of structural damage. They connect this to the Fed's rate stance, the sticky CPI reading of 332.4, and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate dropping to 2.38%. How does a growing pool of long-term unemployed influence the Fed's willingness to...

Episode 30 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna drill into the surprising jump in job openings to 7.6 million in April, the highest in nearly two years, and what that really means for the Fed's next move. They parse the ADP private payrolls number for May (122,000, stronger than expected), and connect it to the Fed's preferred Core PCE inflation reading still running above the 2% target. The hosts discuss why the labor market isn't signaling a rate cut anytime soon, and how the central bank's framework has shifted from focusing on slack to focusing on wage-driven services inflation...

Lucas and Luna dig into today's ADP payrolls report—122,000 private-sector jobs added in May, stronger than expected—and ask what the Federal Reserve makes of a labor market that keeps churning even as the fed funds rate sits at 3.62 percent. With job openings surging to 7.6 million in April and core PCE inflation still above target, they explore why the Fed seems content to hold rates steady rather than react to every data release. The conversation touches on the ten-year breakeven inflation rate—which actually ticked down to 2.39 percent—and what that divergence between hot jobs and cool inflation expectations means fo...

The two-year Treasury yield is 83 basis points higher than the ten-year. Historically, that kind of inversion has been a recession warning. So why is the Federal Reserve signaling it's not concerned? In this episode, Lucas and Luna drill into the specific mechanics of this inverted curve, looking at how post-pandemic term premiums, global demand for short-dated paper, and the Fed's own balance-sheet runoff have distorted the signal. They reference the current shape of the curve as of June 2026, the Fed funds rate at 3.62 percent, and the recent surge in job openings to 7.6 million to argue that this inversion may...

Lucas and Luna dig into the latest JOLTS data showing 7.6 million job openings in April 2026, the highest in nearly two years. They discuss what this means for the Fed's rate path, wage pressures, and why the labor market is defying expectations of a slowdown. With the fed funds rate at 3.63 percent and core PCE at 3.3 percent, the hosts explore the tension between tight labor and sticky inflation. They also touch on the Iran war energy spike's indirect effect on hiring. A grounded, data-driven conversation about the central bank's toughest puzzle in 2026.

#JOLTS #JobOpenings #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #Inflation #LaborMarket...

Lucas and Luna dig into the June 2026 energy inflation spike tied to the Iran conflict. With the average US household spending $450 more on gas and energy, and core CPI running at 3.3%, the hosts explore why the Fed can't just raise rates to fix supply shocks. They discuss how the Fed's preferred PCE gauge captures this differently than CPI, why Chicago Fed President Goolsbee called energy inflation 'more persistent than expected,' and what this means for the rate path ahead. A grounded look at how geopolitical events force the Fed to distinguish between cyclical and structural inflation — and why th...

Inflation is still running above the Fed's target — core PCE hit 3.3% annualized in April. But the component that has the Fed's attention isn't shelter or services. It's energy. This episode unpacks why gasoline and heating oil are uniquely dangerous for monetary policy: how they feed into inflation expectations, why the Fed can't ignore them even though they're volatile, and what the Iran war's $450-per-household energy surcharge means for the timing of rate cuts. Lucas and Luna walk through the specific data from the April PCE report and recent Fed speeches — including Goolsbee's acknowledgment that energy inflation has been 'more pers...

Lucas and Luna break down why the Federal Reserve is zeroing in on a specific labor market metric: the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers. With the Fed funds rate stuck at 3.64% and core PCE inflation at 3.3%, the hosts explain how this single number — which has dropped from 2:1 to 1.2:1 — could determine whether the Fed cuts rates in 2026. They discuss recent comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, the impact of the Iran war on energy prices, and why the labor market remains surprisingly resilient despite geopolitical shocks. Lucas argues that the openings-to-unemployed ratio is the key signal for rate...