Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief

Short-term Bitcoin whales’ unrealized profit fell from a record $9.8B to $4.6B as 10.6K BTC hit exchanges on Oct 20. What it means for the market

Bitcoin is down 6% from its October high and trades 1.5% above $80.4K support. Futures sellers lead. Is this a correction or a downtrend?

Bitcoin short-term holder supply hit 4.08M BTC, the highest since mid-June, as new buyers enter. STH cost basis is $74.9K, profit cushion 10%.

Bitcoin Bollinger Band width fell to 4.9%, the tightest since mid-September. Breakout levels to watch: $86.0K above and $81.9K below.

Bitcoin long-term holder realized price is $48.6K, with BTC 72% above it. LTHs in profit since Jan 2023, but their cost basis is falling.

Fees are just 0.64% of Bitcoin miner revenue. At $0.05/kWh, mining 1 BTC costs $86.7K with an Antminer S19 vs $44.3K with an S21.

Bitcoin fell to $80.7K as $520M in longs were liquidated Oct 2-8. The Stress Index hit 49.9, near 3-month highs, then eased to 7. What's next?

Fed minutes signal another rate hike by year-end. Bitcoin falls to $82.8K, Regime Score at -22. What FOMC said and the -30 bear threshold.

itcoin fell from $85.5K to $83.9K overnight as long liquidations and taker sell pressure spiked. Shakeout or start of sustained selling?

Bitcoin long-term holders cut positions for a 7th week (-73.4K BTC). LTH SOPR at 1.18 shows profit-taking as the market absorbs supply.

Bitcoin futures buying pressure hit 4.9, the highest since August, as open interest rose 9K BTC in 24h. The key level for new longs is $83K.

Bitcoin trades 14% above the short-term holder cost basis (realized price) at $73.7K, while the long-term holder cost basis falls to $48.8K.

Bitcoin supply in profit hit its highest level since January and now stands at 72%, while price momentum has fallen to zero at $83K.

Bitcoin realized 19% less profit than at the August peak despite a higher price. STH SOPR fell to 1.01 as short-term holder profit narrows.

Bitcoin exchange outflows averaged 16.1K BTC per day, the strongest weekly pace since October 2025, as futures positioning slips below zero.

Bitget hacked for $351M, withdrawals paused. On-chain data shows BTC kept leaving exchanges after the hack, with no panic inflows.

Bitcoin is 37% above long-term holders' cost basis as MVRV recovers from breakeven. Compare today's drawdown to past bull market corrections.

Bitcoin reclaims the 365D moving average at $80.5K for the first time since November 2025. Trend Pulse flips to bull mode. Key levels to watch.

Bitcoin long-term holder supply fell 21.7K BTC in 30 days vs 105.9K in late August. LTH SOPR slipped to 0.994 as BTC rose to $81.2K.

Bitcoin recovered to $77.4K as Taker Order Pressure flipped to +0.86 and short liquidations dominated at +54.52. Is the buying edge real?

Bitcoin at $76.2K vs STH realized price $71.3K: short-term holder profit cushion fell from 10% to 7% in a week. Exchange inflow P/L nears zero.

Markets see a Fed rate hike as near-certain. History shows stocks often dip after a first hike. What that means for the S&P 500 and Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Bollinger Band width sits at 4.81%, below 6% for six days. Price holds $76.6K-$80.4K as taker flow turns neutral. No clear edge yet.

Bitcoin holds near $77K despite rising derivatives pressure and a persistent Coinbase discount. On-chain read on whether buyers can confirm.

Bitcoin supply in profit hit 69% with a +41% 90-day change, one of the fastest on record. Why the speed shows scale, not a regime shift.

Bitcoin short-term holders sent 549K BTC to exchanges while STH-SOPR stayed above break-even. Price held most gains despite selling.

Bitcoin long-term holders sold 98.5K BTC since August as profit-taking resumed. Supply is stabilizing, but selling risk still remains.

Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $78.7K in two days as taker order pressure turned negative and open interest rose, a seller-driven leverage build-up.

Bitcoin open interest is rising: +11.2K BTC with price up 3.9%. Fresh long leverage, not short covering, lifts BTC toward a bullish regime.

Stablecoin exchange netflow turned positive after 113 days of outflows but is already fading. SSR is easing yet still elevated. Neutral.

Bitcoin's Unified Sentiment Index cooled from 88 to 70 but stays in extreme greed - driven by Fear & Greed while votes and $77.6K price lag.

Long-term holder distribution rose to 282K BTC after the short squeeze as LTH MVRV hit 1.60. Can spot demand absorb the new supply?

Bitcoin open interest fell 3.8% while funding rates doubled since Friday - long bias is rising within shrinking OI, raising long-squeeze risk.

Bitcoin's MPI turned positive for the first time since February as miners resume selling, while fee revenue stays below 1% - 377 days now.

Bitcoin's 90-day realized profit/loss ratio crossed above 1 as unrealized losses fell from 18% to 7% easing stress that still needs confirmation.

Bitcoin Realized Cap flows turned net positive and apparent demand topped issuance for six days, but at 2.52 it sits in the weakest 10% since 2024.

BTC reclaimed the STH cost basis at $68K and broke above SMA200/SMA111, putting short-term holders back in profit. SMA365 at $83K is resistance.

STH supply in profit jumped to 74.9% as BTC rebounded 22% to $77K, but net flow to exchanges crossed +25K BTC. Watch for distribution pressure.

Bitcoin rose 20%, yet US spot premium is negative and open interest in BTC dropped 8.7%. 

Bitcoin Regime Score hit Strong Bull (60) at $69.5K. The turn started Aug 17, before a $1.42B short squeeze amplified the breakout.