Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief

Bitcoin volatility compressed to 3.8% and ADX fell to 11 - an extreme Bollinger Bands squeeze, no trend. Watch for band expansion, ADX above 20.

Bitcoin 0-3M holder NUPL is near breakeven while the 3-6M cohort sits at -0.14, its Realized Cap 69.6% below peak. Watch 3-6M to reclaim zero.

MVRV Z-Score at 0.41, below its 1.69 mean but above zero. BTC holds ~13% over the $57.6K cost basis. Lose it and $46.1K stress opens up.

LTH SOPR below 1.0 does not mean the entire long-term holder cohort is under pressure. The average LTH cost basis is $49.3K, while Bitcoin trades at $64.3K, so most of the cohort remains in profit. The main stress is now concentrated among STHs, whose cost basis is above the market price.

The current price rebound is not confirmed by flows. The apparent demand-to-issuance ratio and net age flow are recovering from their July lows but remain negative. Supply is aging and leaving circulation, supporting the price, but fresh demand has yet to return.

Bitcoin price prediction for August 2026 with historical performance, support and resistance, macro outlook, ETF flows, and on-chain data.

This brief shows how the balance of supply in profit and loss has changed over the past year and how stress has evolved during the past month. The picture remains strained, but the indicator is still far from previous extremes, while weekly momentum has only started to turn higher.

The market is still in the Neutral zone, but sentiment continues to deteriorate and is approaching the Fear threshold.

The short-term holder share is near multi-year lows, while the long-term holder share has approached historical highs. This points to lower coin turnover and resilience among long-term holders, but it does not yet confirm a return of demand.

Local stress rose to 16 points. The impulse was driven almost entirely by price movement, while exchange flows and derivatives do not confirm it.

Price weakness has not been accompanied by an increase in supply on exchanges. BTC inflows continue to decline, while Netflow remains neutral. Coins are not accumulating on exchanges in volumes that would point to rising sell-side pressure, but there is also no meaningful reduction in liquid supply that could support the price.

Around 56% of BTC supply is now in profit, compared with 47% at the June low. Market structure has improved, but the 90-day change remains negative: the profitable supply base is recovering, yet it is still well below where it stood three months ago.

Bitcoin is in an undervaluation zone based on the MVRV Z-Score, but full capitulation, marked by the metric falling below zero, has not occurred. Realized P/L points to easing selling pressure, but there is still no confirmation of a cycle bottom through capitulation.

We compare the current bear market phase with the 2022 cycle through realized profit and loss.

The US spot market is emerging from a period of maximum pressure. The Coinbase discount has not disappeared, but it has narrowed significantly, while the return of positive ETF flows confirms that the market structure is improving.

This brief examines what is happening inside the volatility compression. Low volatility is neutral on its own - its meaning depends on the direction of positioning. Leverage is currently declining, so the risk of a sharp move amplified by a liquidation cascade is lower than it was a month ago.

This brief examines the balance between supply and demand through exchange flows. As long as stablecoins continue to leave exchanges and Bitcoin does not enter an accumulation phase, the price lacks the fuel needed for a sustained move higher.

This brief examines how weak inflows of new capital coincide with short-term holders realizing losses. Young coins account for a minimal share of realized capitalization, STH SOPR remains below 1.0, and both indicators have only just started recovering from their local lows.

Bitcoin LTH supply hit a record 16.34M BTC, with 371K absorbed in 30 days, while CDD 30D stays low at 313M. Scarcity is building, demand is not.

This brief explains how the local bearish regime shifted to a bullish one and why the current move appears confirmed. 

We examine what powered the daily move: aggressive market buying or the forced closing of short positions. 

The market has remained in unrealized loss territory for six weeks. STH moved underwater first and were also the first to begin recovering, while the aggregate Adjusted NUPL and LTH readings reached their lows later. All three metrics have now converged near -0.13 and are recovering in sync.

The price decline is accompanied by a sustained reduction in open interest and a weakening pressure index. At this point, it looks more like positions are being closed and excess leverage is being flushed out than a structural move lower. But buying momentum has weakened noticeably.

Buying pressure is once again outweighing selling pressure at the lows, repeating the February pattern, while price is holding near the Cost Basis of the freshest holders. The logic of this brief is simple: compressed selling pressure and price positioning in the lower part of the cohort range point to an accumulation zone.

This brief explains why initiative in futures still remains with sellers despite a local rebound attempt. Cumulative buy delta is shrinking quickly, and any spike in demand is immediately absorbed. That confirms local weakness in buyer flow.

A brief on how stablecoin inflows - the main fuel of the crypto market - have dried up over the past two months. The logic is simple: without fresh dollar liquidity, BTC rebounds stay short-lived and downside pressure remains in place.

The first major net BTC sale by Strategy in several years and the futures market's reaction to the announcement. The sale was driven by obligations, not by a change in strategy. Price held up, but derivatives positioning cooled noticeably.

The futures market has turned toward greater willingness to take risk: the gap between futures and spot has moved back into positive territory, and the positioning index has shifted back above zero.

This brief covers the first BUY signal in a long time from Net UTXO Supply Ratio and whether the Supply in Loss metric confirms the start of the final phase of capitulation. The logic is simple: the fast indicator has already moved into the reversal zone, while the slower one still needs more time to reach the threshold.

A brief on why the current bounce looks fragile. The logic is simple: buyers are pressing the market aggressively, but without growth in open interest the move has no fuel for a sustainable breakout.

The current drawdown looks heavier than February's: exchange inflows have increased, while SOPR below 1.0 shows that the market is realizing losses on average. Until both metrics turn, any recovery remains unconfirmed.

A brief on BTC approaching the LTH cost basis and why long-term holder behavior points to the market nearing the final phase of the bear cycle.

A brief on how demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs has completely dried up and turned into a sustained outflow. As long as momentum stays near historical lows, the market has no institutional fuel for an upside reversal.

Net realized P/L is persistently negative, which means the market is systematically locking in losses. But the cost basis of most holder cohorts is still below the current price, so for now this looks like a controlled decline rather than a full capitulation.

This brief is about how MSTR's deep drawdown and Strategy's shift from aggressive buying to defense are changing the role of the largest corporate BTC buyer. The logic is simple: the longer this proxy stock trades deeply underwater, the higher the risk that the burden of dividends and debt will eventually reach Bitcoin itself.

A brief on how bullish demand has run out and momentum is shifting to sellers: Net Taker has pulled back to zero, while long positions dominate liquidations.

This brief is about short-term holders moving into loss while capital inside the STH group is shrinking sharply. At the same time, the LTH group shows almost no drawdown. The logic is simple: the pain is real, but it is concentrated in weak hands. The market structure does not yet look like a full cycle-wide capitulation.

Price is compressing toward Adjusted Realized Price as the main support zone, while the change in new capital inflow has turned negative. For now, the market is being held by old hands, not fresh demand.

This brief is about the Fed's hawkish pause and how differently assets reacted: gold was bought after the drop, while Bitcoin remained under pressure. The logic of the issue is BTC's relative weakness as a signal of a shift toward risk-off.

This brief is about the second wave of capitulation and why the fading strength of the selloff matters more than the panic itself. The logic is simple: if the second wave of losses is weaker than the first, it more often points to seller exhaustion.