BID/ASK

Anthropic just filed its S-1, and the headline number is a trap: an $80.7 billion net loss that isn't cash burn at all. We break down what it actually means, who it moves

Plus: Mondays edge ,What to actually watch into earnings this week as GOOGL and MSFT report Wednesday and SNDK and INTC report Thursday, in a tape that just sold LRCX and WDC on beats. Israel votes Tuesday in a dead heat and why that changes Netanyahu's fate more than Iran policy. And the FOMC holds Wednesday, with December as the real decision trade the 10-year...

NO BLACK MONDAY, BUT THE CREDIT MARKET IS FLASHING RED. CRWV CDS AT RECORD 1,194 BPS, ORCL ONE NOTCH FROM JUNK, THE FORCE MAJEURE CRACK IN AI BACKLOGS, AND THE NVIDIA OPENAI ORACLE CIRCLE TRADE. CREDIT LEADS, EQUITY FOLLOWS.

Welcome:

1:00 Anthropic Statement by Dario. What did he say and why does it matter? What could be the reason behind the statement and the timing of it?

21:00 - Clarity Act: What is a procedural vote and why does it matter? What happens next and what stocks are we watching to take advantage of this

27:00 - CRCL - Why does CRCL benefit and what is backing CRCL's stablecoins?

28:00 - When TLT tipped it's hand for an amazing SPX day trade

37:40 - BOJ rate decision, do we finally get a hike...

Seasonality , Fomc , and The Bessent put recap.

BESSENT SANCTIONS, JENSEN SWEATS, WARSH LURKS WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK IN THE MARKETS....

SITUATIONAL AWARENESS WENT FROM 45 BILLION TO 10 BILLION ON 400 PERCENT LEVERAGE, AND GRIFFIN'S CITADEL TOOK THE BOOK AT A DISCOUNT. CRAMER CALLS IT A CLEARING EVENT, AND THE TAPE AGREES. THE MARKET RIPPED STRAIGHT OFF THE FORCED SELLING INTO FRESH RECORD HIGHS.

THEN THE OTHER SHOE. SPCX LOCKUP CRACKS OPEN AUGUST 6, DUMPING 911 MILLION SHARES WORTH 123 BILLION INTO THE FLOAT.

WAS THAT THE BOTTOM OR THE FIRST BODY OUT THE DOOR. LETS GET INTO IT.

FOMC IS THE MAIN EVENT AND IT IS WARSH IN THE CHAIR. WE BREAK DOWN THE DECISION, THE STATEMENT LANGUAGE, AND WHAT WARSH ACTUALLY SIGNALED VERSUS WHAT THE TAPE WANTED TO HEAR. IS THE MARKET GETTING THE REGIME CHANGE IT PRICED IN OR IS IT STILL WAITING.

THEN WE GO WHERE THE MONEY IS MOVING. MOMENTUM NAMES ARE LEADING THE MOVE DOWN. THE SAME LEADERSHIP THAT CARRIED THE TAPE HIGHER IS NOW OUT FRONT ON THE WAY OUT. WHO IS BREAKING, WHO IS HOLDING, AND WHETHER THIS IS ROTATION OR SOMETHING DEEPER.

PLUS THE BIG...

THE 30YR HAS BEEN ABOVE 5 FOR THE LONGEST STRETCH SINCE 2007, WITH THE FED 150BP LOWER THAN IT WAS THEN. THAT GAP IS TERM PREMIUM, NOT POLICY. INSIDE: WHY THE FED CANT FIX THE LONG END, HOW IT TRANSMITS TO YOUR AI NAMES, AND WHAT SECTION 301 DOES TO THE INFLATION LEG ON FRIDAY.

This week on Bid/Ask: the Korean ants. Who the gaemi are, why Korea's margin debt is growing at double the pace of the US and China, and why traders there are paying nearly 10 percent interest to stay levered long. With Samsung and SK Hynix making up 42 percent of the entire KOSPI, a crack in Seoul becomes a crack in MU, SNDK, and the whole photonics complex by the New York open. Plus the flow data that should be on every momentum trader's radar: Korean retail is now buying 2x long AND 2x short ETFs on the same US...

SK Hynix prices the biggest foreign listing in US history into a bleeding semi tape. The CLARITY Act has three Senate weeks to live or it's dead until 2030. And airlines report earnings with jet fuel surging on the Iran escalation. Three stories, one barrel of oil pricing all of them. We break down the $28B Hynix ADR debut and what it means for DRAM and MU, the 60 vote math blocking crypto's biggest bill, the GENIUS Act rule deadline July 18, and why airline fuel guidance is the first earnings season casualty of oil at $78.

ON THIS EPISODE OF THE BID/ASK PODCAST WE BREAK DOWN THE TWO BIGGEST STORIES HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEK.

FIRST, META RIPS NEARLY 9% ON REPORTS OF META COMPUTE, A NEW CLOUD BUSINESS BUILT TO RENT OUT EXCESS AI CAPACITY FROM ITS $125 TO $145 BILLION INFRASTRUCTURE BUILDOUT. WE EXPLAIN WHY THE CAPEX BEAR CASE THAT CRUSHED THE STOCK ALL YEAR JUST GOT REPRICED, WHAT TRUST ME CAPEX VERSUS SHOW ME CAPEX MEANS FOR THE REST OF THE HYPERSCALERS, AND WHY THE SAME HEADLINE HAMMERED CRWV, MU AND SNDK.

THEN WE GO DEEP ON TRUMP ACCOUNTS AHEAD...

MICRON'S RECORD QUARTER, THE AI INFRASTRUCTURE READ THROUGH, AND WARSH'S DOLLAR. SEASON 2 KICKS OFF WITH THE BIGGEST CATALYST OF THE WEEK.

That's a wrap on Season 1.

We came in when the tape was moving, covered the names that mattered, and didn't sugarcoat a single print. That's what this show is built on no filler, no noise, just the market as it actually is.

If this gave you an edge, if it made you think differently about a setup or a sector that's the whole point. Markets don't care about your feelings, and neither does this podcast.

Do one thing before you close this out. Subscribe and leave a review. Five stars if we earned...

EVERYONE IS BUYING THE GOLD RUSH. WE'RE BUYING THE SHOVELS. IN THIS EPISODE WE GO ONE LAYER BENEATH THE HBM AND PHOTONICS NAMES EVERYONE IS ALREADY IN AND MAP THE SUPPLY CHAIN PLAYS THE MARKET HASN'T FULLY PRICED. PACKAGING. SUBSTRATES. THERMAL. BONDING EQUIPMENT. THE INVISIBLE RACK THAT MAKES THE WHOLE MACHINE RUN.

NVDA just dropped a monster quarter $81B in revenue, $91B Q2 guide, data center nearly doubling YoY. But the real trade isn't the headline. It's what Jensen can't ship fast enough. HBM is sold out through 2026. CoWoS packaging is maxed. Substrates are backlogged. We break down every layer of the AI supply chain bottleneck and the tickers that move when NVDA can't keep up with itself.

OPEX

Stock price = Earnings per share × Multiple (P/E).
Earnings tell you what the company makes. The multiple tells you what the market is willing to pay for those earnings. A rerating or de-rating is when that second number changes without earnings changing at all.

In this episode, we break down one of the biggest market days of the year: the FAANG and mega cap earnings wave alongside Jerome Powell’s final Federal Reserve meeting as Chair.

We start with Big Tech. Meta delivered strong revenue and earnings growth, but investors focused on another major jump in AI and data center spending. Alphabet may have posted the cleanest report of the group, with powerful Google Cloud growth and resilient Search demand. Microsoft continued to show strength through Azure and enterprise AI adoption, though expectations were skyhigh heading into the release. Amazon’s repo...

What do a 1901 railroad war, a grocery store chain, and a video game retailer have in common? Someone ran out of shares to buy. In this episode we break down the anatomy of the locked-float squeeze from JP Morgan and E.H. Harriman obliterating shorts on Northern Pacific Railway, to Porsche quietly cornering Volkswagen and briefly making it the largest company on earth, to WSB turning GameStop into a generational short squeeze. The playbook is always the same: thin float, heavy short interest, forced covering, price goes vertical and the exchange steps in to protect the wrong side. Every...

11 consecutive green days. an 11% move. a 1-in-450 event and you watched it happen in real time.

but nobody's talking about what comes next.

in this episode we break down the only question that matters right now: what happens in session 12 and beyond? we run the historical analogs 2002, 2008, 2009, 2020 and show you exactly how each of those rips resolved. the data is clear. the regime call is everything.

ceasefire driven rip off a tariff-driven crash. macro still unresolved. edge is thin.

Is the ceasefire real. Is the inflation print realer.

On April 8th the US and Iran agreed to a two week pause brokered by Pakistan. Iran put forward a 10 point proposal covering Hormuz transit, sanctions relief, war reparations and nuclear enrichment. Trump called it workable. Iran called it a victory. Israel kept bombing Lebanon anyway.

A few hours later the market remembered Friday exists.

March CPI drops April 10th at 8:30am ET. Consensus is 3.4% year over year, up a full 100 basis points from February's 2.4% in a single month. One driver. Gasoline went from $2.98...

the quantatollah was right.

on sunday night, iran's parliament speaker posted trading advice to the world. he called trump's pre-market announcements a reverse indicator and told everyone to fade the pump. the crowd loved it. dubbed him the quantatollah. then monday morning came and every single one of them loaded calls into the iran headline anyway.

you know how it ended.

this episode we break down who mohammad bagher ghalibaf actually is irgc commander, mayor of tehran, four-time failed presidential candidate, and reportedly the man on the other end of the white house...

FIVE MINUTES BEFORE TRUMP ANNOUNCED THE 90-DAY TARIFF PAUSE, AN ANOMALOUS $1.5 BILLION CLIP HIT ES FUTURES. OIL WAS SOLD SHORT IN SIZE SIMULTANEOUSLY. THE MOVES WERE 4 TO 6 TIMES LARGER THAN ANY OTHER TRADE DURING THAT CLOSE. COINCIDENCE IS A WORD. SO IS FRONTRUNNING.

IN THIS EPISODE OF BID/ASK, WE BREAK DOWN THE SEQUENCE THAT HAS MARKETS ASKING THE QUESTION NOBODY IN FINANCIAL MEDIA WANTS TO ANSWER DIRECTLY: WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE MOST POWERFUL MACRO CATALYST IN THE WORLD IS ALSO THE GUY WHO MAKES THE POLICY?

WE MAP THE LEGAL ARCHITECTURE , WHY THE CFTC'S...

AI IS EATING SOFTWARE. BANKS ARE EATING CRYPTO.

THE SOFTWARE SECTOR JUST ENTERED A BEAR MARKET AND NOBODY RANG A BELL. THE ISHARES EXPANDED TECH-SOFTWARE ETF IGV IS DOWN 24% YEAR-TO-DATE. ORACLE IS DOWN 56% FROM ITS SEPTEMBER PEAK. SALESFORCE, ADOBE, WORKDAY, SERVICENOW : ALL IN FREE FALL. AND THE CATALYST WASN'T A RECESSION OR A FED PIVOT. IT WAS ANTHROPIC LAUNCHING A DESKTOP AI AGENT THAT CAN DO THE WORK THAT ENTERPRISE SOFTWARE USED TO CHARGE FOR. WE BREAK DOWN WHO GETS DESTROYED, WHO SURVIVES, AND WHICH NAMES ARE ACTUALLY WORTH BUYING IN THE WRECKAGE.

THEN WE...

WHILE IRAN WAS BURNING TANKERS AND CLOSING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, THE BLS DROPPED A JOBS REPORT NOBODY ASKED FOR. 50,000 JOBS. SOFT. UGLY. AND COMPLETELY IRRELEVANT TO THE BIGGEST MACRO TRADE OF 2026.

BECAUSE WHILE YOU WERE WATCHING NFP, SCOTT BESSENT FORMER SOROS CIO, MACRO TRADER TURNED TREASURY SECRETARY WAS QUIETLY TURNING THE US GOVERNMENT INTO THE WORLD'S BIGGEST OIL MACRO FUND. SHORT FRONT MONTH FUTURES. LONG THE BACK END. THE EXPLICIT GOAL: CRUSH THE WAR PREMIUM AND BREAK THE PANIC BID IN CRUDE.

THIS EPISODE WE BREAK DOWN WHAT NFP ACTUALLY MEANS FOR RATE CUT...

The Biggest Short You Never Heard Of

War in Iran. Oil in play. And the most secretive firm on Wall Street just got exposed.

Jane Street Capital runs 10% of all U.S. equity trades, made $20 billion last year, and their founder went 25 years without a public photo. Now they're being sued on two continents — accused of a $4.3 billion pump-and-dump scheme in India, front-running the Terra/Luna crypto collapse, and allegedly suppressing Bitcoin every morning at 10 AM with a kill-switch algorithm.

Meanwhile the U.S. and Israel just killed Iran's Supreme Leader. The Strait of...

This week we break down one of the most important storylines in the AI trade.

Nvidia just delivered another massive earnings report, posting record revenue driven by relentless demand for AI chips. On the surface, the numbers were strong. But the market reaction told a more complicated story. Expectations were sky high, China exposure remains a question mark, and investors are starting to ask how sustainable this AI spending cycle really is.

At the same time, Anthropic’s Claude model made headlines after reports surfaced that it was used in a U.S. military operation ti...

BID/ASK – Episode 6

Opinion Day is here. We break down the risk around a possible Supreme Court ruling on tariffs and why markets are bracing for a major policy shock. If tariffs are struck down, we explain why the initial relief rally could be short lived as Washington scrambles for replacement mechanisms and legal workarounds.

We also zoom out to rising tensions involving Iran and why the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most important pressure points in global markets. With a significant share of the world’s oil flowing through a single chokepoint, even...

BID/ASK – Episode 5 takes a deep dive into late-cycle market dynamics as Ray Dalio’s Stage Six warning comes back into focus. We break down what Stage Six actually means for risk assets and use Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) to uncover how capital is rotating beneath the surface of the market.

This episode connects macro signals, sector rotation, and market structure to highlight where risk is building and where opportunity may be quietly forming. No noise. No narratives. Just a clear look at positioning, rotation, and what the market is signaling next.

BID/ASK is for...

In this episode, we break down two stories that show how markets really work. Hims’ compounded semaglutide blow up and the rise of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.

We explain what compounded semaglutide is, why it threatened Novo Nordisk’s pricing power, and how regulation and patents shut the trade down fast. Then we pivot to prediction markets, where billions in Super Bowl trading volume signal a new way of pricing real world outcomes.

The common thread is disruption lives in regulatory gray zones until regulation decides the winner. One door just closed. Another is s...

In this episode of BID / ASK, we break down why MicroStrategy’s bitcoin exposure isn’t the margin-call risk most people think it is. We walk through Michael Saylor’s debt structure, why it behaves more like permanent capital than leverage, and where liquidation fears miss the mark. We also dig into who Scott Bessent really is, his Soros legacy, and why his macro playbook still matters today. Finally, we connect the dots to the Genesis mission and what it signals about the next phase of markets, capital, and AI.

Markets don’t wait, and neither do we. In this episode, we break down the SpaceX/XAI merger and what it signals for the future of innovation and market positioning. We dive into the new 0DTE strategies shaking up volatility and show where capital expenditures are pointing for the next wave of growth. No fluff, no hype just actionable insights you can use to trade the reality, not the narrative.

January 30, 2026 will be remembered as one of the wildest trading days in modern market history. Gold plunged 12% and silver crashed a record 31% in what traders are calling a genuine Six Sigma event—a statistical anomaly that should happen once every 1.38 million years. We break down what triggered the precious metals massacre and compare it to history's most infamous crashes.

But that's just the beginning. Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve sent shockwaves through currency and crypto markets. We analyze what Warsh's hawkish history means for Bitcoin, the dollar, and rate cu...