Market Beat

In today’s episode of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal looks at why pricing pressures keep mounting, with oil hovering near $100 per barrel and up 70% year to date, keeping inflation stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target as affordability becomes a central issue heading into the midterms. Earnings from Meta, IBM, Procter & Gamble, and Lockheed Martin, a Fed meeting on deck for October 27th and 28th, and a deeper dive into U.S. debt, now $29.5 trillion and roughly 123% of GDP, the highest level since World War II. Quick Takes on EFX, AA, and NFLX.

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In today’s episode of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal looks at the Misery Index, which adds the unemployment rate to the annual inflation rate and tracks the two pillars of the Fed’s dual mandate. September’s reading of 7.9%, the sum of 3.7% CPI inflation and 4.2% unemployment, sits below the 9.1% average since 1949 and far below the stagflation peaks near 20% during the Ford and Carter years. It’s also down from a 2026 peak of 8.5% in May, though up from 6.7% in January. That relatively benign picture contrasts sharply with consumer surveys, where the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell...

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In today’s episode of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal digs into the housing market and what Chief Economist Chris Graja expects for home improvement spending. Thursday brings Harvard’s Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity, which projects U.S. repair and remodeling activity worth roughly $520 billion annually. The second-quarter report pointed to a 2.1% increase in renovation and repair spending for both the third and fourth quarters, slowing to 0.7% and 0.5% in the first half of 2027. Slow spending growth suggests households are reluctant to commit to big-ticket projects like kitchen remodels that require financing. Even...

In today’s episode of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal looks at the standouts and laggards from a challenging third quarter. The S&P 500 gained 2% after a 15% rise in the second quarter and a 4% loss in the first, but the strongest gains were concentrated in just three sectors: Energy, Healthcare, and Information Technology, with more sectors finishing negative than positive. In the Argus universe of roughly 500 companies, the average stock fell 2% and the median lost 5%, while the top 10 Buy-rated names rose 71% on average, led by 10x Genomics up 140% and Moderna up 138%, with HF Sinclair, Hewlett Packard En...

In today’s episode of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal turns to Chief Market Technician Mark Arbeter for a technical read on the tech sector after yesterday’s selloff. The hotter-than-expected CPI report sent the S&P 500 down 1.1%, its worst day since July 29th, with the real damage in Information Technology as the XLK index dropped 3%. Losses were broad: semiconductors fell 4% with declines of 3% to 9% across Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor, Broadcom, Micron, AMD, and Intel, telecom equipment was off 3%, software dropped 2% with Oracle plunging 9%, and Dell fell 11%. Argus sees this as a change in character, with rotation out...

In today’s episode of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal covers a hotter-than-expected inflation reading that pushed Treasury yields higher across the maturity spectrum. The Consumer Price Index rose 3.7% year over year in September, above the 3.6% consensus and up from 3.4% in August, with core prices up 2.6%. Energy was again the culprit as the Iran conflict continues, with the energy index component rising 5.2%, while food prices were flat for the month and up 2.5% annually. In Active Stocks, BlackRock gains on above-consensus third-quarter results and topping $15.5 trillion in assets under management, ASML rises after beating earnings while flagging th...

In today’s episode of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal digs into a third-quarter IPO market where AI did the heavy lifting. Twenty-seven operating companies went public in the quarter, down from 48 in the second, raising nearly $35 billion, well ahead of the $15 billion raised in the same quarter last year. Year to date, 108 companies have raised $155 billion, compared with 161 companies raising just $31 billion a year ago, and the difference is AI. SK Hynix raised $26.5 billion and opened on the Nasdaq above a $1 trillion market cap, following SpaceX’s $75 billion IPO. First-day performance was softer than usual, with...

In today's episode of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal digs into a third-quarter IPO market where AI did the heavy lifting. Twenty-seven operating companies went public in the quarter, down from 48 in the second, raising nearly $35 billion, well ahead of the $15 billion raised in the same quarter last year. Year to date, 108 companies have raised $155 billion, compared with 161 companies raising just $31 billion a year ago, and the difference is AI. SK Hynix raised $26.5 billion and opened on the Nasdaq above a $1 trillion market cap, following SpaceX's $75 billion IPO. First-day performance was softer than usual, with an...

In today's episode of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal looks at the financial conditions underpinning saving, borrowing, and investing. Chief Economist Chris Graja's call of the week is for conditions to stay supportive, with the OFR Financial Stress Index holding below zero. The index, built by the Treasury's Office of Financial Research from 33 market variables including interest rate spreads, equity valuation, and volatility, reads positive when stress runs above average and negative when it runs below, making it a useful early warning signal as rates climb and credit spreads widen. In Active Stocks, Constellation Energy jumps 12...

In today's episode of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal looks at how global stocks are outshining U.S. markets even with the S&P 500 near record highs. The leading emerging market ETF has gained 22% year to date versus 13% for the S&P 500 and 8% for the developed international index, making overseas stocks, particularly dividend payers, an option for investors looking to diversify and reduce sensitivity to volatile U.S. interest rates. Argus walks through its Buy-rated international names in the International Growth and Income Model Portfolio, spanning Anheuser-Busch InBev, Haleon, and Unilever in consumer staples, Enbridge and...

In today's episode of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal marks 17 weeks of the podcast and looks ahead to what history says about fourth-quarter performance. Analyzing S&P 500 data from 1980 to 2025, Argus finds the fourth quarter has generated average gains of 4.7%, well ahead of the 2.0%, 3.3%, and 0.5% averages for the first three quarters, with a win rate of 83%, meaning positive returns in four out of five years. The S&P 500 has also hit its yearly high-water mark during the fourth quarter more than 70% of the time, with over half of those highs coming in December. Argus expects a...

In today's episode of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal covers a market rally driven by a cooler-than-expected inflation reading. The PCE Price Index, the Fed's preferred gauge, rose at a 3.4% annual pace in August, down from 3.7% the prior month and below the 3.7% consensus, marking the slowest annualized reading in six months. Core PCE came in even lower at 3.0%, with energy costs the main driver of the increase as gasoline jumped 4.4%. The softer print could alter the Fed's thinking on future rate hikes, and Argus notes that lower inflation leading to lower rates would support higher stock...

In today's episode of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal previews Wednesday's PCE Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, and explains why it's favored over the better-known CPI: its composition changes more frequently, making it quicker to reflect real-time pricing shifts. Through July, PCE inflation ran at 3.7% year over year with core at 3.3%, and Argus forecasts August readings of 3.8% headline and 3.4% core. Across the 20 inflation measures Argus tracks monthly, prices are rising at an average 4.4% rate, up 40 basis points from the prior month, while the firm's blended core reading holds steady at 2.8%. With inflation still well...

In today's episode of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal previews Friday's September Jobs report, where Argus forecasts the unemployment rate will tick down to 4.0% from 4.1%, against a consensus for no change. The optimism rests on strong third-quarter growth, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow projecting 5% for the quarter, up from 1.5% in the second, and real final sales to private domestic purchasers tracking up an annualized 4.8%. Argus also sees room for unemployment to stay at or below 4.1% without stoking inflation, with unit labor costs approximating 1.1%, well under the Fed's 2% target. It's a busy week for data, with PCE...

In today's episode of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal looks ahead to November's midterm elections and what history says about market performance around them. With Republicans currently controlling the Presidency, Senate, and House, prediction markets give Democrats an 89% chance of taking the House while the GOP narrowly holds the Senate, as presidential approval sits at 32%. Historically, stocks stumble in early autumn of midterm years, with third-quarter S&P 500 returns averaging negative 1.5% since 1980, but investors often respond positively once results are in, with fourth-quarter returns averaging 4.1% as Washington gridlock lowers the odds of major legislation. The Market...

In today's episode of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal covers Argus's updated sector allocations for the fourth quarter, with one upgrade: Energy moves to Over-Weight from Market-Weight. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels, and the conflict has exposed how vulnerable regional energy infrastructure is in the age of drone warfare, leading Argus to see a possible secular shift of global crude production toward more secure North American sources. Current Over-Weight sectors are Energy, Financial, Industrial, Information Technology, and Materials, with Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples Under-Weight. The Wall Street Buzz digs...

In today's episode of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal shares the Argus holiday sales outlook, forecasting a 4.1% rise in 2026 holiday retail sales to top $1 trillion for a second straight year. Argus builds the forecast from 11 categories, with the three largest, grocery stores, general merchandise stores, and e-commerce, expected to grow 1%, 3%, and 7% respectively, with online sales already up 10.3% year to date. An employed consumer remains a strong tailwind, though gas prices above $4 are a drag. Buy-rated retail picks include Williams-Sonoma, Ulta Beauty, and TJX. Restaurant stocks including Cheesecake Factory, Cracker Barrel, CAVA, and Brinker all gain more...

In today's episode of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal looks at which industries and companies stand to benefit as the Fed returns to a tightening stance. With the Fed Funds target now at 3.75% to 4% and Argus Fed Watcher Kevin Heal expecting one more 25 basis point hike before year end, Argus highlights potential winners from a sustained period of higher rates, including Bank of America, Truist, and Visa in lenders and credit cards, Home Depot, Lowe's, and Sherwin-Williams in home improvement, Archer-Daniels-Midland, Coca-Cola, and Unilever in consumer staples, and Labcorp, Pfizer, and Quest Diagnostics in healthcare. Markets...

In today's episode of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal breaks down the Fed's decision to raise the Fed Funds Rate by 25 basis points to a target of 3.75% to 4%, marking the first move under new Chairman Kevin Warsh and the start of what looks like a new tightening cycle. The hike comes as the war in Iran disrupts supply chains and pushes oil prices up nearly 75% year to date, with the bond market having pressured rates higher for months. Looking at the past 30 years, rate-hike cycles have averaged a little longer than two years with rates rising...

In today's episode of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal covers a cautious recovery as markets await the Fed's rate decision this afternoon, with a hike widely expected as the two-day policy meeting concludes. August retail sales came in strong at 1.2%, well above the 0.8% consensus and reversing the prior month's decline, led by non-store retailers. Mortgage rates climbed another 12 basis points to 6.97%, the highest since May 2025, adding pressure to an already struggling housing market. In Active Stocks, J.B. Hunt Transport plunges 13% on a warning of a 5% to 10% near-term earnings drop, while Intel rises 4% on reports it's...

50 episodes! Thank you to everyone who's been listening.

In episode 50 of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal delivers a change in the Argus rate forecast: the firm now expects the FOMC to tighten by a quarter point tomorrow, lifting the target range to 3.75% to 4.0%, with an additional quarter-point increase before year end. The revision comes as employment holds surprisingly healthy, inflation stays obstinate, and the bond market shows strain, with the 10-year yield climbing to 5.01% and crude oil up another 2% to $104 a barrel. Argus does not expect two hikes to derail earnings...

In episode 49 of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal covers a broad pullback in AI names after a group of AI leaders warned that a developmental slowdown may be necessary to keep the technology from spiraling out of control. Marvell falls 6%, AMD drops 5.5%, and Nvidia, Nebius, and Sandisk all decline, while CrowdStrike bucks the trend with a 12% gain after its CEO argued AI development should continue and that cybersecurity firms will make it safer. All eyes turn to the Fed, with the FOMC rate decision Wednesday afternoon and hike odds now at 87% after stronger-than-expected jobs data and...

In episode 48 of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal covers a down day as crude oil climbs another 3% to $96 a barrel, stoking inflation fears and pushing the major indices lower. In Active Stocks, Casey's General Stores drops 15% on tepid same-store sales guidance despite an earnings beat, Chewy falls 7% even after raising full-year revenue guidance, and Meta Platforms rises 5% on the launch of its new AI personal agent, Muse. The Market Buzz looks at why volatility has stayed subdued, with the VIX opening at 15.7 and holding below 20 for most of 2026, reflecting investor confidence backed by roughly 30% second-quarter earnings...

In episode 47 of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal covers a sour day on Wall Street as new tariffs from Canada, climbing oil prices, and growing expectations of a Fed rate hike next week all weigh on sentiment, sending the Dow down more than 1% and crude up 2% to $93 a barrel. Chip heavyweights Intel and AMD help cushion the Nasdaq, rising 8% and 4% respectively, while Oracle gains 3% ahead of its earnings report later this week. Chief Economist Chris Graja's call of the week is that inflation expectations will remain anchored after Friday's CPI report, pointing to Fed Chairman Kevin...

In episode 46 of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal covers a modest gain for the major indices ahead of tomorrow's August employment report. Weekly jobless claims rose marginally to 206,000, roughly in line with expectations and suggesting no significant shifts in the labor market. In Active Stocks, Snowflake soars 22% on an earnings beat and raised full-year guidance, Nvidia gains 2% after announcing a $13 billion acquisition of AI platform Hugging Face, and Broadcom falls 6% despite strong revenue and earnings driven by AI chip demand. Editor Olivia Frey delivers Quick Takes with raised targets on Sun Life Financial, citing its diversified...

In episode 45 of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal covers a softer-than-expected private jobs report ahead of Friday's government payrolls data. The ADP National Employment Report showed 38,000 private payroll jobs created in August, below both the 47,000 consensus and last month's 44,000, with education and health services adding jobs while manufacturing and professional services posted losses. In Active Stocks, Dell rises 5% on strong results and raised guidance driven by AI infrastructure demand, Palo Alto Networks falls 7% on narrowing margins and rising component costs, and MongoDB drops 10% on soft third-quarter guidance despite 30% revenue growth. Analyst Stephen Biggar delivers Quick Takes...

In episode 44 of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal kicks off September with a look at why it's historically the market's worst month. Argus analysis of S&P 500 returns going back to 1980 shows September is the only month with an average loss, shedding about 0.9% annually, with a win rate of just 48% and some brutal outliers including 2008's 13.6% drop. The episode explains what makes September a transition month: corporations back in gear after Labor Day, a reviving IPO market, a Fed meeting, and third-quarter pre-warnings that can send investors fleeing entire sectors, with midterm elections added to the...

In episode 43 of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal covers a down day as renewed strikes between the U.S. and Iran push oil higher and weigh on the broader market. Energy names including Halliburton, SLB, Chevron, and Exxon Mobil all move up as crude climbs 3% to $86 a barrel, while the 10-year Treasury yield rises 4 basis points to 4.76% on growing sentiment that rates could head higher. Tesla bucks the negative mood with a 5% gain, and Tim Cook steps down as Apple CEO after 15 years in the top job. The Wall Street Buzz previews a jobs week, with...

In episode 42 of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal covers a strong day for tech earnings and asks a question on every investor's mind: when does the next pullback come? Nvidia rises 6% on a beat and upbeat guidance, Salesforce surges 21%, and CrowdStrike jumps 19%, while HP falls 7% on disappointing results. The Market Buzz digs into sector rotation, where semiconductors and oil and gas exploration lead year to date, but biotech and big pharma have blasted off roughly 27% and 26% over the past three months, gold and silver miners have surged 36% and 34% over the past month, and solar and clean...

In episode 41 of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal covers a hotter-than-expected inflation print that has investors watching the Fed closely. The PCE index rose 0.2% in July, above the 0.1% consensus, putting full-year inflation at 3.7%, with elevated service-sector prices offsetting a 0.1% decline in goods. Treasury yields moved higher on the news. In Active Stocks, Intuit falls 4% on soft top-line guidance, Zoom drops 7% citing a consumer slowdown, and Meta rises 1% after settling a social media addiction case with 29 state attorneys general for $18 billion. A slew of tech earnings arrive after the close, including Nvidia, CrowdStrike, Salesforce, and HP. The...

In episode 40 of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal takes a hard look at Bitcoin, which is down 11% year to date and roughly 30% below its all-time highs despite a nearly 20% jump over the past week. The rally traces back to the Treasury's announcement that it will increase purchases of longer-term securities, a move that worked for a day before fixed-income investors refocused on inflation risks, geopolitical developments, and a federal debt now topping $40 trillion. Argus explains why Bitcoin can benefit from higher debt and a weaker dollar, but urges caution given the asset's extreme volatility and still-speculative...

In episode 39 of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal digs into the newly filed 13-Fs to see what the biggest institutional investors bought last quarter. Berkshire Hathaway added materially to Alphabet, Delta Air Lines, and The New York Times Company. Pershing Square opened new positions in Netflix, Restaurant Brands International, and Uber. Appaloosa opened new positions in American Airlines and Goodyear, Ark Investment opened a new position in SpaceX, and Citadel, Two Sigma, Artisan Partners, and D.E. Shaw all made notable moves. In Active Stocks, steel names Cleveland-Cliffs and Steel Dynamics rise after the U.S...

In episode 38 of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal covers a reversal in markets as yesterday's Treasury buyback rally fails to hold, with bond yields climbing back up and the 10-year rising 4 basis points to 4.69%. The Market Buzz recaps the dramatic cross-asset reaction to the Treasury's announcement that it would at least double its long-term bond buyback operations, which sent the dollar tumbling almost 0.9%, Bitcoin up 8%, gold surging nearly 4% into its 200-day average, and silver climbing 4.5%. In Active Stocks, Walmart drops 9% as slower same-store sales growth overshadows beats on sales and revenue plus raised full-year guidance, Alibaba...

In episode 37 of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal covers a rally driven by the U.S. Treasury's announcement that it will increase buybacks of long-dated government debt, pulling interest rates lower and sending the 10-year yield down 5 basis points to 4.66%. In Active Stocks, Moderna skyrockets 94% and Merck gains 8% on positive Phase 3 results from a skin cancer vaccine trial, Target rises 3% on an earnings beat and raised guidance, and Lowe's edges higher despite a cautious outlook on sluggish DIY spending. The Market Buzz breaks down a remarkable earnings season, with S&P 500 second-quarter earnings up over 50% year...

In episode 35 of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal previews the final stretch of earnings season as retailers step up to report, with Walmart, Target, Home Depot, and Lowe's headlining the week. With 91% of S&P 500 companies reported, earnings are up an impressive 25% to 30% from last quarter, led by Energy and Communication Services. All eyes are on how consumer spending is holding up after July retail sales surprisingly declined 0.6%, and Wednesday brings the Fed's July FOMC minutes for a read on Chairman Kevin Warsh's evolving approach. In Active Stocks, memory names shine again with Micron up 5%, Sandisk...

In episode 35 of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal previews the final stretch of earnings season as retailers step up to report, with Walmart, Target, Home Depot, and Lowe's headlining the week. With 91% of S&P 500 companies reported, earnings are up an impressive 25% to 30% from last quarter, led by Energy and Communication Services. All eyes are on how consumer spending is holding up after July retail sales surprisingly declined 0.6%, and Wednesday brings the Fed's July FOMC minutes for a read on Chairman Kevin Warsh's evolving approach. In Active Stocks, memory names shine again with Micron up 5%, Sandisk...

In episode 34 of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal covers a broadly higher market as tame PPI numbers strengthen the case for the Fed to hold rates steady. The quiet is measurable: the VIX has declined in eight of the past 10 days, closing at 14.6, its lowest level since late 2025, well below its 19 average since 2021. In Active Stocks, Cisco falls 7% on lower margins despite an earnings beat, CAVA extends its post-earnings rally with a 4% gain, and hardware names Dell, HP, and Hewlett Packard Enterprise all rise following Lenovo's strong results. Analyst Christine Dooley delivers Quick Takes with a...

In episode 33 of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal covers an in-line inflation report and a standout day for AI infrastructure stocks. CPI rose 0.1% in July and 3.4% year over year, matching consensus, with the steady reading likely keeping the Fed on hold, as rate hike odds for September fall to 42% on the CME FedWatch tool. In Active Stocks, CoreWeave surges 18% on margin outperformance, Super Micro jumps 14% on raised guidance amid AI server demand, and CAVA Group climbs 12% on improved restaurant traffic. The IEA cuts its 2026 oil demand outlook as the Strait of Hormuz closure and elevated fuel...

In episode 32 of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal covers a day of Argus rating changes. Boeing is upgraded to Buy on a production ramp-up, new flight certifications, and strong order backlogs, while Centene earns an upgrade to Buy after a 68% surge over the past quarter backed by stable revenue and consistent earnings growth. On the flip side, Procter & Gamble moves to Hold on slowing growth guidance and declining core operating margins. In other Active Stocks, On Holding plunges 22% on a disappointing quarter, Intel slips as it ups its stock issuance to $20 billion, and CoreWeave reports after...

In episode 31 of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal returns from a week off with a big call: Argus is upgrading SpaceX to Buy. In its first quarter as a public company, SpaceX reported $8 billion in revenue, up 92% year over year, and signaled a year-end revenue run rate approaching $100 billion, well above initial forecasts, while the shares sit roughly 40% below their all-time highs. In Active Stocks, Intel falls 4% on a dilutive $15 billion stock sale, and Berkshire Hathaway rises 2% as new CEO Greg Abel begins deploying the company's cash pile. The Wall Street Buzz previews a week of...