The Event Horizon Podcast

We all know that prediction market behavior can be used a signal for real-world events, and sometimes insider trading. I spoke with Dan Zimmermann, Chief Intelligence Officer at BETINT, to talk about how his company is trying to surface that information in real time.

Plus the week in prediction markets news with Daniel O’Boyle of InGame.

Show notes:

-News

DraftKings joins Kalshi with injury protection

CFTC’s New Swap Definitions Are Latest Courtroom Play, But May Not Sway Judges (InGame): “The rules do two different things that are two si...

A market where you can trade about the past? As soon as I saw that, I had to talk to the CEO of Verifact!

Plus a look at recent developments in prediction markets with Daniel O’Boyle of InGame.

Show notes:

News

SCOTUS briefs and Seminoles sue DraftKings:

Seminoles Sue DraftKings; NFL, AGA File SCOTUS Briefs

Investigation of the CFTC

Kalshi fee growth

Verifact Markets

Site

Press release: Verifact Markets launches the first trading platform built to resolve disputed fa...

Football season is underway, and prediction markets are booming. But what are the numbers about trading volume at Kalshi, Polymarket and beyond really telling us? Eric Ramsey of TickerTracker (and Event Horizon contributor) stops by to break it down.

Plus a look at recent developments in prediction markets with Daniel O’Boyle of InGame.

Show notes:

Kalshi raise

Novig too

Vs. FanDuel and DraftKings valuations

Brad Allen@BradAllenNFL

Kalshi worth nearly twice as much as Flutter and DraftKings combined despite doing significantly less handle than bo...

Leif Abraham, a co-founder and co-CEO of Public.com, came on the show to talk about the company’s launch of prediction markets via Kalshi.

From the press release:

Public, the world's first agentic brokerage, today announced the launch of AI Agents for Prediction Markets, enabling members to trade on events that can shape financial markets and connect them with the rest of their portfolio. People can trade events directly or have AI agents trade on their behalf. For example, Public's AI agents can use prediction market data as a signal for a stock or bo...

I spoke with Will Brooke, the co-founder of the startup Herisson, about the future of hedging and insurance via prediction markets.

From the company’s website:

“We’re building Herisson because the tools that enable the world’s largest companies to hedge against one-off, event-driven risk should be accessible to companies of all sizes.”

And as always, Daniel O’Boyle of InGame is here to break down all the latest news in prediction markets.

Show notes:

Kalshi volume and parlays + fees

Texas messing with prediction markets

Another lo...

Kalshi Head of Enforcement Robert DeNault joined me to talk about how investigations and enforcement work in prediction markets.

Danieli O’Boyle of InGame returns to break down all the latest news in prediction markets, including a deluge of advertising deals.

Show notes:

Kalshi on recent enforcement actions

Novig and Sydney Sweeney

DraftKings ads directly referring to Kalshi

Sports is still pretty big!

NFL letter to prediction markets

If you trade on sports and event exchanges, you need EDGE Boost — the financial platform buil...

Ben Horney of Front Office Sports stopped by to talk about recent developments in prediction markets. And Matt Restivo — SVP of Sports Data Services at Grandstand — chatted about data in PMs and the Optic Odds product.

Show notes:

New Jersey appeals to SCOTUS.

Kalshi gets US Open deal.

Injury markets.

Kalshi bans George Santos.

The Ninth Circuit delivered bad news to Kalshi on Friday, as the prediction market company lost its appeal to Nevada. Where does the legal battle for prediction markets go from here? The US Supreme Court is definitely in play.

Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I break down that news and everything else that happened last week in prediction markets.

Show notes and more reporting/context on the decision:

-Event Horizon

-InGame

-Nevada reacts: ““We are pleased with the Ninth Circuit’s ruling today in favor of Nevada. This complete...

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission got a bunch of important people in prediction markets together for a meeting in Washington, DC. Did we learn anything? Why were people yelling at each other? What happens next? Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I break down that meeting, and all the recent news in prediction markets.

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Show notes:

The CFTC meeting

A Republican problem for prediction markets?

The Brookings Institution’s Aaron Klein stopped by to talk about all things prediction markets (starts at the 47-minute mark). He is a senior fellow at Brookings’ Center on Regulation and Markets and worked on the Dodd-Frank Act.

Klein has led a pair of events about prediction markets hosted by Brookings:

Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I also break down all the recent news in prediction markets, including a lot of news around stuff other than sports event contracts!

Show notes:

FlightAware vs. Kalshi

Sports mention markets

Hedg...

There are endless stories and hot takes about people betting on wildfires…even though no one is actually offering markets on fires. And there are lots of people yelling about betting on drug trials. What exactly is going on? Daniel O’Boyle of InGame breaks that down and all the recent news in prediction markets.

To wit, prediction markets on drug trials made NPR’s All Things Considered:

Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as ‘ghastly’: “‘What seemed to be missed in the CEO statements was the fact that there were going to be patients on...

It was a busy week in court for prediction markets, from a big lawsuit from the New York attorney general to a win for Kalshi in Minnesota. Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and Dustin Gouker break down all the important news on the legal front and beyond in this week’s Event Horizon podcast.

Show notes:

Legal stuff, from InGame:

New York Sues Kalshi In State Court, Asks For $36 Billion Fine

Sixth Circuit Judge To Kalshi: What’s So Bad About Being Regulated By States?

Prediction Markets Still Legal In Min...

I’ll be at NEXTPredict in October; a lot of big names and smart people from the prediction markets industry will be there. Get your tickets now for 15% off using this link and promo code CLOSINGLINE15.

We started the podcast just talking about how popular betting on LeBron James’ next team had become at Kalshi and other prediction markets. And then as Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I were wrapping up the pod, he announced where he was going!

Show notes:

-Cap Space:

LeBron's Decision 3.0 Is More Popular To Bet on Tha...

Unfortunately, we recorded the podcast before all hell broke loose with the Trump teleprompter operator story. But we did talk about betting on flight cancellations, which Kalshi apparently decided to pause sometime after we recorded the podcast.

But it’s still a good chat between me and Daniel O’Boyle of InGame on all the news of the week in prediction markets. I guess that will teach us to record on Fridays instead of Thursday from now on. Maybe.

Here was my original piece on Kalshi’s potential markets on flight cancellations:

Seinfeld Episod...

Did you know you can bet on Kalshi on how many Spotify streams artists will get? Well, of course you can, because you can bet on almost anything on Kalshi. But what happens when someone tries to manipulate the streaming metrics? We found that out last week! Daniel O’Boyle of InGame helps break down the latest nonsense.

First, this at The Event Horizonhttps://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/how-artificial-spotify-streams-broke-kalshi-market

Here’s from a story on Wired: https://www.wired.com/story/spotify-streaming-manipulation-prediction-markets-polymarket-kalshi/

This week, the situation hit a boiling point when the song “Earrin...

Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I did an “emergency” podcast today to deal with all of the news that dropped on Friday morning. That includes a deal between Kalshi and FIFA…or rather Kalshi and ADI Predictstreet, apparently?

Kalshi and ADI Predictstreet Announce Strategic Partnership to Expand Global Prediction Market Footprint during World Cup™ and Beyond (press release): ADI Predictstreet, the Official Prediction Market Partner of the FIFA World Cup 2026™, today announced a strategic branding and product partnership with Kalshi, the world’s leading prediction market exchange. This collaboration will expand prediction markets globally, providing billions of fans with n...

Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I break down recent news in prediction markets, including Kalshi nearing $9 billion in weekly volume, new exchanges getting a green light, and a bad story for Polymarket.

Kalshi volume (paywall at The Closing Line)

ProphetX

Novig

Rothera

WSJ on Polymarket

Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I are still trying to process that the prediction markets news cycle now includes George Santos, somehow. We break down all the recent news in in the industry.

Plus I talk with Kindbridge Behavioral Health CEO Daniel Umfleet about prediction markets, addiction, and treatment.

News recap and analysis at the start; Interview with Kindbridge CEO at 31:13.

George Santos, lol

https://www.ingame.com/doj-investigating-santos-kalshi-trades/

THERE WAS A BIG ($5,000) HEDGE AT AN NYC BAR

https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/mattress-mack-walked-so-kalshi-could-run

Ru...

The Polymarket-Google fiasco:

https://www.ingame.com/google-engineer-polymarket-insider-trading/

https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/the-polymarket-google-case-and-insider-trading

Trump talks prediction markets

https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/trump-some-prediction-market-opponents-are-scum

Here come new exchanges:

DraftKings... https://www.ingame.com/draftkings-self-certifies-first-contracts/

Rothera from Robinhood... https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/robinhood-cfo-says-most-prediction-flow-moving-to-rothera

When will SCOTUS tackle prediction markets?

https://www.ingame.com/nj-petition-scotus-prediction-market/

Senators talking prediction markets: https://closingline.substack.com/p/senators-were-fired-up-about-prediction-markets-at-hearing

Combinatoric Athletic Outcome Contracts!https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/its-not-a-parlay-its-a-combinatoric-athletic-outcome-contract

Betting On Survivor:https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/stop-letting-people-bet-on-survivor

Breaking down Kalshi retail handle and parlays: https://www.ingame.com/kalshis-true-betting-handle-draftkings-fanduel/

https://www.sportico.com/business/sports-betting/2026/kalshi-parlays-retail-bettor-losses-rfq-1234894471/

Polymarket US is fully live: https://www.ingame.com/polymarket-us-live-without-waitlist/

FanDuel and DraftKings on prediction markets:https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/what-we-learned-about-fanduel-and-prediction-markets-q1https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/what-draftkings-and-genius-sports-said-about-prediction-markets-q1-earnings

Parlay volume!https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/most-of-kalshis-recent-volume-growth-from-parlays

Maryland and Massachusetts vs. Kalshihttps://www.ingame.com/fourth-circuit-judges-wary-kalshi-maryland/https://www.ingame.com/kalshi-massachusetts-supreme-court-questions/

Everyone had comments for the CFTC on prediction markets rule making: https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/the-most-interesting-comments-on-cftc-rulemaking-for-prediction-markets

Senate bans prediction market trading by senators: https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2026/04/30/congress/new-ban-on-prediction-market-trading-00901232

Robinhood Q1 earnings and prediction markets: https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/what-we-learned-about-robinhood-and

Polymarket international to the U.S.?: https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/04/28/polymarket-seeks-cftc-approval-to-reopen-main-exchange-to-u-s-traders

Soldier arrested for Maduro betting: https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/us-soldier-arrested-for-maduro-bets

Three candidates caught betting on themselves: https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/five-questions-after-kalshi-fines

NY sues prediction markets: https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/new-york-ag-sues-coinbase-gemini

Fox + Kalshi…but no elections?

https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/fox-news-has-a-kalshi-deal

White House warns people not to insider trade on PMs

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/white-house-warns-staff-not-to-place-bets-on-prediction-markets-amid-iran-war-3780668f

NCAA is big for Kalshi

https://www.ingame.com/2026-ncaa-tournament-volume-fees-kalshi/

$1.1 trillion for PMs?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-09/bofa-sees-a-1-1-trillion-market-for-sports-event-betting-in-us?taid=69d7b3615fcb6f0001a6e7f6&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

Kalshi wins in NJ

https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p...

Kalshi’s Sports Insurance Play — Hedging, Not Betting (Sporting Crypto)

Volume Doesn’t Pay The Bills (LinkedIn)

Pet Berisha's piece on the Prediction Market Singularity https://newsletter.sportingcrypto.com/p/prediction-market-singularity

The number of platforms getting into prediction markets is growing by the day, with crypto exchange Gemini and sweepstakes casino MyPrize getting involved. Pet Berisha of Sporting Crypto joins me again to break down recent developments in prediction markets.

DraftKings signaled its intent to get into sports prediction markets this week, but deals by the NHL with Kalshi and Polymarket have changed the meta in the industry. Pet Berisha of Sporting Crypto helps me round up a wild week of news on this week’s podcast.

Sports prediction markets face a new wave of fraud, from insider trading to syndicates and spoofed locations. Radar Protect helps platforms detect and stop risky activity in real time, using location and device signals across 300+ brands in finance, retail, QSR, and gaming. Flag multi-accounting, account sharing, identity theft, and more, wi...

Friday morning’s news dump from Kalshi led me and Pet Berisha of Sporting Crypto to turn this in an emergency podcast.

The news:

* Kalshi is going live in 140+ countries, sharing a liquidity pool with the United States.

* Kalshi also announced it recently raised more than $300 million at a $5B valuation, led by Sequoia and a16z.

When Polymarket launches in the US, what’s that going to look like and how disruptive might it be? Pet Berisha of Sporting Crypto also talks with me about Robinhood going international, Kalshi wanting to go crypto, and how much do state-regulated sportsbooks need to worry about all of this… particularly Kalshi’s launch of parlays.

Of note: Polymarket.us now has a landing page, but the app is not yet live for real money:

And from InGame, surmising that Polymarket might not be able to launch until the government shutdown ends:

“Polymarket will not...

It’s take two of The Event Horizon podcast, as Pet Berisha of Sporting Crypto joins me again to talk about recent developments in prediction markets. Kalshi has surpassed Polymarket in trading volume, which has far more nuance to it than just the raw numbers.

We also talk about what’s happening at the CFTC (Brian Quintenz was ousted as the nominee since we recorded it), how South Park was a big moment for prediction markets, and what’s going on at a PM startup called Melee.

Prediction markets news roundup

* Kalshi is launch...

I recently started talking with Pet Berisha of Sporting Crypto, and we decided to start a podcast on a lark. The wide-ranging first episode was a fun conversation; we pick each other’s brains on where prediction markets might be headed in the US.