The Ag Commodity Corner+

Try the Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#Brazil #Record #CFTC #federalreserve #AI #Nasdaq #corn #soybeans #wheat #cattle #hogs #beef #pork #trump #USDA #binance #bitcoinSurprise Brazil election results impact currency & grains markets.US stock markets suffered a Halloween rout.Cattle markets also sell-off.Strong weekly USDA exports.US mid-term elections impact on markets.US Fed Reserve kept interest rates unchanged.Bank Of Canada raised rates.Binance suffers major security breach.+ CFTC

Try the Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#southamerica #Brazil #Planting #Record #CFTC #oversold #diesel #HFR #Argentina #federalreserve #AI #Nasdaq #corn #soybeans #wheat #cattle #hogs #beef #pork #trump #USDA Managed money funds continue to sell grains.Strong recent US soybean export sales.Record Brazil soybean planting pace continues.Trump announced $8 billion U.S. Harvest Fuel Relief Program (HFR)."Black October" for AI.USDA Cold Storage report neutral?Cattle on Feed friendly.

Try the Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#southamerica #Brazil #Planting #Record #CFTC Despite a Super Strong El Nino, the early South American soybean planting pace is ahead of schedule.

The long-term forecast looks dry for the North but wet for the South, including Argentina.

China bought 1.5 mmt of U.S. soybeans this week with rumors of 2 mmt business- they are now at 68% of 25 mmt commitment.

The question mark remains on the Chinese pledge towards the $17 billion in ag purchases.

NOPA weekly crush report was lower than...

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#USDA #bearish #corn #harvest #hell #corn #surprise #NE #IA #IL#soybeans #record #wettest #September #hottest #summer #flooding #BlackSea #Brazil #Real #cftc USDA surprised with higher 2026 U.S. corn yields but it’s early with just over 20% of the U.S. harvest complete. NE, IA and IL corn and soybean yields continue to hold up the national average corn and soybean yields. U.S. corn crop conditions fell 3% to 54% G-E and NE corn yield goes up 11 bpa with the 2nd wettest to record wet month of September and ha...

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#USDA #hogs #CFTC #canola #wheat #China #stocks #soybean #China #Trump #Fed #cattle #funds #Trump #Xi #straitofhormuz #crudeoil #treasuryyield #inflation #PCE #labourmarket #diesel2026 September USDA Grain Stocks & Small Grains crop reports were disappointing!Quality issues in U.S. crops- a big problem!Following Trump-Xi summit, China cuts tariffs on many US Ag goods, but...Crude oil prices retreat as western nations release diesel, crude stocks.Middle East oil flow almost back to pre-war levels?Softer than expected U.S. economic data gives Fed more time....+CFTC

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#USDA #hogs #CFTC #canola #wheat #China #Ukraine #Russia #stocks #soybean #China #Trump #meal #Fed #cattle #funds #Trump #Xi #straitofhormuz High-stakes Trump-Xi Summit was heavy on pageantry/pomp and light on concrete breakthroughs. Crude oil futures eased on Iran and Strait of Hormuz headlines.More Black Sea Region headlines.Eyes on USDA Grain Stocks Report next week.U.S. harvest weather still too wet.U.S. treasury yields continue to soar.Bullish USDA Sept. 2026 Hogs & Pigs report.+ CFTC

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#StatsCanada #Xi #stroke #CFTC #canola #wheat #ontario #Ukraine #Russia #stocks #CHS #soybean #crush #basis #China #Trump #meal #Fed #cattle #funds The August Stats Canada production forecast came in higher than expected on canola wheat lower but still too high. Ontario yields too low. Ukraine/Russia trying to move grain exports on land as port remain offline. U.S. stocks will start trading 23 hours as of December 6th, 2026. CHS building a U.S. soybean crush plant in WS will help create a hot basis bid in that area...

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#KCwheat #2022 #ONYield26 #CFTC #Chicagowheat #MWwheat #corn #SRE #KipTom #USDA #NASS #NVDA #weather #frost Soaring wheat futures were the star of the week as the crisis in the Black Se region has worsened. This is the second time Trump is trying to lower high U.S. beef prices with subsidized government priced meat but it's just more noise. More U.S. SREs will lower biodiesel demand but this is just the oil lobby just having more funds than the farm lobby it’s trying to destroy a good th...

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#ONYield26 #pftour26 #USDA #corn #soybeans #wheat #canola #CFTC #ProFarmer #DTN #inflation #Canada #bitcoin #cattle The 2026 Pro Farmer Crop Tour U.S. corn yield estimate at 173.2 and soybeans at 53.3 both are still too high? DTN’s yield forecasts suggest potential upside for grain markets due to tightening production expectations with a corn yield forecast at 178.5 and soybeans at 52.1.2026 Great ON Yield Tour shows final corn yield for Eastern Ontario at 200 bpa a new record high! Soybean final yield is shy of the 2024 high on tour at 58 bpa. Final On...

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#USDA #corn #soybeans #wheat #canola #CFTC #Brazil #DTN #ukraine #russiaukrainewar #russia #inflation #iranwar USDA’s 2026 August WASDE Crop Report cut U.S. 26/27 crop yields - friendly for grain markets.U.S. crop weather narrative switches from conducive rains to unwelcome heavy storms, flooding, hail, winds, etc.2026 DTN Digital Survey projects 178.5 bpa corn (USDA at 180.7) and 52.1 bpa soybean yields (USDA at 52.7) for 2026.U.S. crop conditions steady/lower. North Dakota crop conditions keep dropping.Ukraine drone attacks on Russian ports boost wheat futures. French/EU corn crop smallest in...

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#USDA #August #June #Hot #dry #Trendline #yields #CFTC #surprise #demand #soybeans #corn #unknown #ElNino #Brazil #drought North Dakotas G-E corn crop conditions plunged 13% to 37%! ND only got 50% of normal precip in July with temps 4.5 degrees higher than normal with a poor start to August and very little rain in the 8–14-day forecast. Will the USDA 2026 August crop report surprise with yields/acres and/or demand? China continues to buy U.S. soybeans and did China buy U.S. corn under “unknown.” Impact of a Super Strong El Nino o...

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#crop #drama #China #soybeans #corn #ND #SD #Hot #dry #funds #profits #Ukraine #Russia #BlackSea #tariffs #Iran #weapons #robots #E15 #Hamas #israel #rains #cattle #Mexico #KOSPI #CFTC U.S. crop ratings in corn and soybeans fell more than expected, especially in ND/SD, after a hot/dry trend. But rains this weekend and cooler temps is causing the funds to sell at month-end, and take profits. The Ukraine/Russian war has escalated as Ukraine tries to keep moving grain out of the Black Sea while 3 ports in Russia...

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#BlackSea #RedSea #Hormuz #attacks #risk #CFTC #Azov #Odessa #Iran #Houthi #Saudi #demand #Trump #Pakistan #China #heatwave #drought #flash #Plains # August #soybeans #HRS #wheat #reversal #tariffs #Canada The escalation in the Ukraine/Russian war after 4 years + the escalation with Iran and now the Houthi’s blocking Saudi oil in the Red Sea has crude surging 40% in 2-weeks to ration demand. Trump threatens more attacks but Pakistan is now pushing for new U.S./Iran talks with China’s backing? The U.S. heatwave and “flash drought" in the U.S. N...

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#wheat #skyrocket #Ukraine #Russia #2022 #weather #July #soybeans #Hormuz #crude #cattle #bull #China #unknown #chip #CFTC Ukraine in the month of July has attacked 147 Russian vessels and put both Ukraine/Russian grain exports at risk! U.S. weather looks hot and drier to end the month of July, and the high-pressure ridge is expected to return in the eastern corn belt for the 1st half of August, just in time for reproductive pod filling stage in soybeans. Tit for tat escalation over the Strait of Hormuz has crude...

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#USDA #July #Bullish #Corn #Soybeans #Wheat #friendly #Prairies #Midwest #China #weather #Iran #ceasefire #noise #CFTCThe USDA July crop report was bullish/friendly corn, soybeans and wheat futures. The next 10 days remains hot/dry for the Canadian Prairies, U.S. Northern Plains and Western Midwest but models are in disagreement.China bought 736,000 mt of U.S. soybeans this week. U.S. crop conditions remain below last year and falling. Be careful what you wish for because with the rain comes severe damaging weather! U.S./Iran war ceasefire...

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#friendly #USDA #june #acreage #stocks #bottom #grain #statscanada #bearish #canola #wheat #45Z #carbon #WIN #crude oil #China #soybeans #Morocco #fertilizer USDA June acreage and stocks report was friendly. Stats Canada report bearish canola but friendly wheat. Long-term U.S. weather forecast of 3-4 degrees above normal in July- a concern? Canadian Prairies remains wet! NEW 45Z calculator for low U.S. carbon corn is a WIN worth $100 - $135/acre! Crude oil breaks $70, $65 now in play! China bought more U.S. soybeans but volume light. U.S. suspends...

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#weather #acres #china #demand #fund #rally #grains #DomeofDoom #Midwest #heatwave #Europe #France #Spain #wheat #USDA #wildcard #surprise #StatsCanada #Trump #E15 #crude # input #hogs #MU #marginking #CFTCIs the “Dome of Doom’ heat threat through July 10th centered over the U.S. Midwest the start of a change in weather trend for July and August? A heat wave in Europe (France/Spain) long-term will lead to more demand for global wheat and corn. USDA June acreage and stocks report are “wildcards” but could surprise. Stats Canada 2026 seeding report could also sur...

#reopening #straitofhormuz #bearish #diesel #fertilizer

The Iran/U.S. peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is bearish farm diesel prices and fertilizer.

A peak in crude oil = a peak in soy oil futures + a peak in canola futures short-term.

The SpaceX IPO increased Elon Musk’s net worth by $300 billion in 1 day more than what Warren Buffet made in his entire lifetime! WOW!

The NEW Fed chairman Kevin Warsch was too hawkish and hates providing guidance and visibility on interest rates. U...

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#USDA #June #neutral #HRW #1965 #CFTC #wheat #corn #crudeoil #ElonMusk #trillionaire #spacex #weather #wildcard #elnino #CPC #urea #bullish #cattle #screwworm #fund There were no big surprises in the USDA June report as it historically is not a market moving report, but U.S. HRW production was lowered by 18 million bushels. The June USDA crop report was neutral- higher global stocks & South American production offset lower U.S. wheat and higher U.S. corn exports. Crude oil breaking lower technically on news of a peace deal with Iran. Elon...

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#Houston #canola #screwworm #cattle #foreacst #Prairies #Texas #cattle #bitcoin #broadcom #tech #AI #CUSMA #weather #CFTC A wet weather forecast for the Canadian Prairies this weekend into next week could result in flooded just planted acres plus unseeded canola acres! New screwworm detected in Texas could devastate the tight U.S. cattle herd. U.S. $ Index breaking above $100 while the CDN $ breaking below 72 cents. Bitcoin once a rising star is back to testing support at 60,000 and the 200-DMA at 61.989. Broadcom revenue disappointment set off a rotation out of...

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The new acronym on Wall Street is not “FOMO”, its “FEMO” - Fabulous Earnings Momentum. DELL this week crushed their earnings and revenue guidance sending the stock up 40%! Micron's valuation went from 500 billion to 1 trillion in 48 days!

U.S. Corn Belt drought expanding need timely rains in June.

Rumors this week that China was lower...

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#China #tradedeal #Bull #New #AG #CFTC #cattleonfeed #soybean #billion #Iran #war #crude #fertilizer #drought #HRW #NVDA #agenticAI #CPU #cattle The NEW U.S.-China $17 billion trade deal of “non-soybean” purchases for 26, 27 and 28 is very bullish ag!

The end to the Iran/U.S. war is near as both crude oil & fertilizer fall.

U.S. drought in the West and Southeast is slowly bleeding East and North.

U.S. HRW P/VP conditions increased again to the worst ever!

The godf...

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The 2026 Trump/Xi Summit in China was one BIG disappointment, but the USDA May Crop Report was bullish U.S. wheat. Wheat Quality Council Tour confirmed the lower wheat production from the USDA for Kansas. Could the U.S. drought travel East and North into the top “I” states from June to August of 2026? #1 U.S. pork buyer Mexico bans 10% of supplies. E15 passe...

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$5 corn, $12 soybeans, $7 wheat & $750 canola! Is the top in and the party over with lower crude oil and an end to the Iran war?

The 2026 USDA May report could see ending stocks fall further due to red-hot U.S. corn exports, lower HRW production and lower Brazil corn production?

OK HRW wheat...

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#Trump #Xi #trade #Phase2 #bullish #AG #Beijing #great #breakout #KCwheat #canola #weather #SPX #funds #Iran #fertilizer #diesel #global #grain #UAE #OPEC #CFTC #farmbill #E15 #April #winners #losers

The countdown to the Trump/Xi meeting in Beijing is on- it happens in mid-May & Trump says trip to China will be “great”!

New technical breakout in KC wheat and canola futures.

May weather forecast remains cool/wet for U.S. east but dry out west.

S&P 500 surge...

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NOAA reported that U.S. HRW wheat was 70% in a drought ties the 2022 drought! USDA crop progress reported 47% of the HRW wheat in poor/very poor. The weather forecast looks wet and cool for the U.S. Midwest with snow for the Canadian Prairies. Central Brazil Safrinha corn crop looks dry for the next 2-weeks. Rumors that China was looking...

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#crudeoil #stocks #straitofhormuz #farmbureau #fertilizer #KCwheat #drought #USPlains #USDA #cropprogress #bitcoin #Iran #canola #cattleonfeed #CFTC

WTI crude oil drops $12 as Strait of Hormuz reopens temporarily. Stocks higher, U.S. $ Index lower.
Farm Bureau fertilizer survey = farmers waiting too long to book fertilizer.
KC wheat futures new contract highs as drought expands. USDA crop progress shows KC wheat conditions at 45% poor/very poor! 14-day U.S. weather forecast remains dry for U.S. Plains/SE but wet for Midwest & cooler by end...

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#USDA #12Hour #ceasefire #USDA #dud #planting #season #HRW #wheat #rain #livecattle #footandmouth #China #pork #exports #CFTC #April #Hormuz

 A 2-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire lasted 12 hours. The USDA April crop report was a dud. The 2026 planting season does not look early. U.S. HRW wheat country needs a lot more rain. Live cattle traded to new record highs! Foot & Mouth disease in China, U.S. pork exports +2% + CFTC update and more.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#USDA #surprise #wheat #sunflower #cotton #crudeoil #urea ##April Midwest #Plains #CornBelt #wheat #cropprogress #funds #soyoil #oilseed #grain #HappyEaster USDA provided a bullish surprise with lower wheat acres, but what does higher sunflower acres suggest? WTI crude oil futures soared 13% while U.S. Gulf urea prices also traded higher. The U.S. Midwest looks wet to start the month of April while the South/Southeast and Western Corn Belt (Plains) remains dry. The national U.S. wheat ratings in the 1st USDA crop progress of the season next...

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Next week's USDA reports (acreage/stocks) could be a surprise/market moving. RVO’s (new blending biofuel requirements) were as expected with no big surprises and already baked into futures. E15 summer waiver just simply good optics. Markets are skeptical that the war in Iran ends soon with no diplomatic off ramp. The Trump/Xi meeting in China now May 14 – 15. March 1 USDA hogs and Pigs report was friendly/bull...

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#crudeoil #higher #longer #stagflation #slower #economic #growth #inflation #Trump #Xi #April #Ag #Appreciation #Paris #Chinese #dry #weather #CFTC #winterwheat #wildfires #funds #metals #ag #energy

Fears are starting to grow that higher crude oil futures for longer could see slower economic growth and higher inflation BUT….

At a meeting in Paris, the Chinese team said they would be willing to buy more non-U.S. soybean row crops????

Trump’s delay with the Xi meeting (pushed out to end of April) was...

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Could this be the beginning of the return of higher inflation and a repeat of 2022 when corn traded to a high of $8.27/bu? Policy will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz military can if not we need to destroy demand and send crude oil futures much higher! The ag commodities remain undervalued vs. other commodities with the basket up +4.9%. USDA...

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Historically wars like the 2026 Iran war are bullish hard assets like grains, metals and energy! The funds are spooked and do not want to be short, but do they price in the news over time, similar to the Ukraine/Russian war that started on Feb. 24, 2022? A closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the key to the surge in c...

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The funds (managed money) crowd/spec are now net long the grain complex!  The AI King Nvidia reported 4th quarter earnings that surpassed Wallstreet estimates but the stock falls? Trump retaliates against U.S. supreme court decision to impose an additional 15% global tariff. FDN (First Day Notice) and month end fund selling in March futures were absent in 2026. Crude oil futures adding more ge...

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Better technicals, hedge fund buying on hope of more Chinese and soy oil demand optimism from new U.S. biofuel policies in 2026 is a BIG WIN! Could the U.S. supreme courts ruling that struck down Trump's tariffs derail the Chinese buying of U.S. soybeans? USDA Ag Outlook Forum projections this week were friendly corn, neutral soybeans and bearish wheat...

*Apologies! In this week's podcast, where we talk about the latest CFTC update as of 10th Feb 2026, managed money funds covered their net short position in canola to the tune of +42,746 week-on-week to flip to net long 145 contracts and not (as we mistakenly said) +90,009 wk/wk to 47,408. Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#WIN #soybeans #trade #truce #extension #USDA #Xi #Trump #China #ethanol #45Z #phospahtes #fertilizer #corn #technical #wheat USDA took Trump's comments that China would buy more U.S. soybeans seriously and headline news that the U.S./China trade truce would...

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Trump’s post this week that China would buy an additional 8 mmt of U.S. soybeans was a “game changer” near-term. The plunge in Bitcoin down 50% from the highs may no longer be considered a “digital” gold. It has followed the selling in tech this week with the NASDAQ down 7%.  The 45Z announcement provided more clarity and...

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#crudeoil #Iran #silver #gold #metal #CFTC #Trump #nuclear #China #Russia #middleeast ##kalshi #E15 #Iowa #Australia #heatdome #Tonga Crude oil prices are spiking on concerns that Trump might attack Iran over their nuclear program and China/Russia vowed to protect Iran a large oil producer in the Middle East. Silver plunges 61.4% and gold carters by 19%! Kalshi markets was predicting a U.S. government shutdown again at 87.3% but it was averted last minute. Trump vowed to pass E15 in Iowa this week. Australia seeing a heat dome and record...

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On YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9P_dz6BaP4w&list=PLw_19gpIg9cQIGriCrrqlZkwr_Mo_5oqo

#USDA #geopolitics #America #trade #Argentina #dry #Greenland #Brazil #weather #soybean #wheat #USDA #E15 #framework #MatoGrosso #livestock #cattle #Texas #drought #naturalgas #winterkill #cattleonfeed #CFTC Higher geo-politics from Trump wanting to annex Greenland to conflict with Iran has caused investors to sell everything America. With Mato Grosso Brazil 7% harvested weather has turned wet as harvest progresses but Argentina has turned dry! Both soybean and...

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On YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07Wat9ZrMo0&list=PLw_19gpIg9cQIGriCrrqlZkwr_Mo_5oqo

#USDA #january #bearish #canada #china #tradedeal #corn #soybeans #wheat #silverbullet #E15 #biofuel #canola #EV #Iran #crudeoil #geopolitics #soybeanoil #silver #drought #CFTC #parabolic The USDA January crop report shocked the grain trade with a bearish report finding more bushels of corn, soybeans and wheat for 2025. But strong demand and talk of finalizing biofuel and adding E15 in Washington helped forge a low near-term in the grain markets. Canola...