Reuters Morning Bid
Everything you need to know to start your trading day. Unfiltered markets news and analysis straight from the Reuters newsroom.
France on edge
Street riots and curfews in Paris rattle investors already worried about France's debt burden and political uncertainty. A failed South Korean data-centre IPO reignites concerns over AI-related stocks ahead of earnings from Netflix and SpaceX. And oil prices hit five-month high as traders brace for more conflict in the Middle East.
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Today’s recommended read: Markets' squeal is music to Fed ears - but still too faint by Mike Dolan
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Mine field
Oil markets open the week on edge after ships hitting mines in the Strait of Hormuz helped drive crude to $110 on Friday, while Ukraine struck a major Russian oil installation near St. Petersburg over the weekend. On Wall Street, Meta's Wednesday earnings report arrives after a brutal week for tech stocks, with the SOX index shedding more than 10% on concerns about AI-related debt.
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Today's recommended read: Asian refiners' pain is Middle East oil producers' problem, Ron Bousso
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AI's debt burden
Markets are recovering from the CoreWeave selloff, but investors are still questioning the debt burden behind the AI boom. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says hotter inflation hasn't changed his view of the economy, prompting markets to dial back rate-hike expectations. And Elon Musk unveils Tesla's flying Roadster, but the long-awaited vehicle won't arrive until 2028.
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Today’s recommended read: Europe's battery boom has a dirty secret by Martin Vladimirov
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Tech stocks sink
Hotter-than-expected inflation revives debate over whether the Fed could raise rates this month. AI-linked stocks stumble as rising borrowing costs heap pressure on indebted companies like CoreWeave and Oracle. And oil markets remain on edge as traders weigh the impact of conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine's renewed attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.
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Today’s recommended read: AI investment boom may be papering over US economic cracks, Mike Dolan
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The CPI test
Investors await September inflation data that could show prices rising at nearly twice the Fed's target, testing whether policymakers can hold off on further rate hikes. Plus China's exports surge again, putting the country on course for another trillion-dollar trade surplus this year. And Wall Street's biggest banks reveal how rising bond yields are affecting their business.
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Today's recommended read: Why governments might secretly wish for an AI stumble, by Mike Dolan
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Cashing in chips
AI stocks slide ahead of earnings season as investors question how much further the chip rally can run. Meanwhile, the IMF lifts its global growth forecasts and points to the AI boom as a key driver of trade and growth. And major US banks open earnings season with bond losses, trading revenues and AI financing in focus.
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Today's recommended read: Europe gets the yuan rise it wants - just not the way it wanted Mike Dolan
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Diesel diplomacy
The Trump administration's weekend moves to ease diesel prices - including a waiver on Russian fuel imports and claims of an energy ceasefire in Ukraine - have confused allies and surprised Kyiv. Meanwhile, Houthi strikes on Riyadh airport intensify, the IMF kicks off its annual meetings in Bangkok, and US bank earnings season gets underway alongside a fresh inflation reading.
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Today's recommended read: Central banks face test. Will they be good cops or bond villains?, Mike Dolan
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Open AI's revenue gap
Open AI's annualized revenue for September is less than previously signaled. Oil prices ease after President Trump says no strikes on Iran are planned before the midterms. And investors prepare for big bank earnings as high yields continue to weigh on dealmaking and borrowing.
Today’s recommended read: Central banks face test. Will they be good cops or bond villains?, Mike Dolan
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AI on credit
Bond yields climb to 24-year highs as Fed minutes show most policymakers see more rate rises ahead and investors demand more compensation for holding long-term debt. Wall Street grows uneasy about the huge, increasingly interconnected financing deals funding the AI build-out. And Samsung shares fall despite an eightfold jump in operating profits, while TSMC reports record sales.
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Today's recommended read: Battle for Mideast oil market share has already begun by Ron Bousso
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S&P 500's record run
The S&P 500 hits another record as investors look ahead to earnings season and another stronger quarter for corporate profits. Fed minutes due later today could reveal how much support there is for further rate hikes after September's increase. And oil climbs above $100 again as fresh fighting and storm risks threaten supplies.
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Today's recommended read: For Trump's Treasury, the sting is in the auction 'tail' by Jamie McGeever
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AI runs hot
Nvidia nears a $6 trillion valuation as AI enthusiasm pushes the Nasdaq to another record. The US long-term Treasury yields hit their highest since 2002, and rising Japanese yields raise the prospect of investors bringing money home from US and French bonds. Plus, Brazilian markets surge as Flávio Bolsonaro emerges as the favorite ahead of this month's presidential runoff.
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Today's recommended read: Early ECB leadership change could worsen Paris bond jolt by Mike Dolan
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French connection
France's risk premium blows out to 15-year highs as fractious budget politics in Paris and an approaching presidential election rattle European debt markets. Meanwhile, a soft September payrolls print steadies US Treasuries, and a snap election call in Spain adds to eurozone uncertainty.
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Today's recommended read: Oil's new problem isn't supply. It's logistics, Ron Bousso
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Jobs on the line
Markets look to US job data for the next clue on a possible October Fed rate hike. Nike plans more job cuts as its turnaround stalls. And US President Donald Trump pressures Europe to release diesel reserves as he keeps a US export ban on the table.
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Today's recommended read: If a bruising third quarter can't halt Wall Street, what can? by Jamie McGeever
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The return of the bond vigilantes?
Treasury yields surge again as the bond selloff takes on a life of its own, despite softer inflation and lower oil prices. Micron's earnings beat lifts global chip stocks on continued AI demand. And UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham opens the door to Britain rejoining the EU, putting Brexit back in focus.
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Today's recommended read: UK PM Burnham sows seeds of "Breturn" that could excite markets by Mike Dolan
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The bond hangover
New York Fed President John Williams cools expectations for an October rate hike, saying there's no urgency to move again. Treasury yields end a bruising quarter higher as investors rethink the path of rates. And weak consumer confidence and softer job openings raise questions about the strength of the US economy.
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Today's recommended read: The $8 trillion arms surge fueling AI - and spooking bonds by Mike Dolan
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AI, at your own risk
Anthropic warns investors about potentially catastrophic AI risks as it prepares for an IPO that could value more than $2 trillion. Nvidia announces a record-breaking buyback plan. Plus Australia raises rates for the fourth time this year as central banks battle renewed inflation pressures.
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Today's recommended read: 'G force' driving world markets may need Fed and bond brake by Mike Dolan
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Fresh tremors
A shaky Treasury auction sends fresh tremors through the bond market. Oil pushes above $100 a barrel as tensions in the Middle East persist. And Federal Reserve officials speak on Monday as traders watch for signs of further rate hikes.
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Today's recommended read: Cash-rich oil majors face post-Iran strategy rethink
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Yields hit home
The global bond selloff pushes US 30-year yields to their highest in more than two decades, driving mortgage rates about 7% and squeezing borrowers. Reports of a phased US-Iran deal offer some hope that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen. But oil markets remain cautious with any relief from a deal unlikely to come quickly.
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Today's recommended read: AI challenges fuel trading's old guard by Clyde Russell
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License to yield
US Treasury yields surge above 5% as a mix of strong economic data, energy pressures and expectations for more rate hikes rattles global bond markets. President Trump and Xi Jinping meet as their extended trade truce disappoints markets. And reports of an OpenAI hack on an Australian government website add to calls for tighter AI regulation.
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Today's recommended read: Passive investing? That S&P 500 index fund is basically a tech fund by Jamie McGeever
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Crude hopes
Hopes for a breakthrough in the Iran war push oil back below $100 as U.S. and Iranian officials meet in New York. President Trump says the midterms won't change his agenda, as betting markets point to growing chances of a Democratic sweep. Plus, AI and chip stocks keep climbing despite calls for tighter regulations.
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Today's recommended read: Darkest before dawn? Funds mull return to bonds by Mike Dolan
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AI's new Muse
Meta's new Muse assistant reignites enthusiasm for AI, sending its shares soaring and helping the Nasdaq hit a record high. Oil holds above $100 as markets watch for a possible meeting between President Donald Trump and Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian in New York. Meanwhile, France's mounting debt and political pressures push borrowing costs higher.
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Today's recommended read: Losing the plot? Warsh's Fed more 'touchy-feely' than data driven by Mike Dolan
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All the presidents meet
As world leaders gather at the UN, markets are watching a highly-anticipated meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Plus, oil prices are falling despite persistent geopolitical tensions, and central banks around the world are signalling a more hawkish stance.
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Today's recommended read: Hormuz shuttles keep oil flowing, but at high cost
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If not now, yen?
The Bank of Japan raises rates to a 31-year high, but the yen weakens anyway. President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping prepare for talks next week, with trade, AI and semiconductors in focus. Meanwhile, China pushes Iran to rein in its Houthi allies as efforts intensify to ease pressure on global oil supplies.
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Today's recommended read: Record diesel prices could be Trump's Achilles' heel Ron Bousso
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Fed's hawkish turn
The Fed raises rates unanimously for the first time in over three years, with 16 of 18 policymakers penciling in another hike this year. The Bank of England is set for a hawkish hold as energy shocks and food prices threaten to push inflation above 4%. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan faces calls from some policymakers to deliver a half-point move when markets are only pricing in a quarter.
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Today's recommended read: Why bulls have an edge in AI bubble debate, Marty Fridson
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Between a hike and a hard place
Markets expect the Federal Reserve to deliver its first rate hike in more than three years, testing the relationship between Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and President Donald Trump. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged growing caverns over the U.S. deficit as bond yields remain elevated. And energy prices continue to cloud the inflation outlook.
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Today's recommended read: Real or not, Trump's helicopter money drop should alarm by Mike Dolan
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Bessent's big test
Pressure is mounting on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as he testifies before Congress with 10-year yields topping 5%. The Federal Reserve begins a pivotal two-day meeting with markets expecting another rate hike. And President Trump says no new guardrails are needed for AI, even as calls grow to slow development of advanced models.
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Today's recommended read: AI is too big to slow in a geopolitical race by Mike Dolan
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AI go slow
The chiefs of OpenAI and Anthropic call for a slowdown in AI development amid warnings of existential risk, with OpenAI delaying its IPO until at least next year - raising questions about what a pause would mean for the chip and data center boom. Oil surges back above $108 a barrel after a Houthi attack on the Saudi East-West pipeline and regional talks over the Strait of hormuz collapse. And markets price a 90% chance the Fed raises rates Wednesday.
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Today's recommended read: Oil markets survived the Iran war sprint. Now comes a marathon, Ron Bousso
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The 5% question
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is closing non 5%, a level many investors see as a potential threat to stocks. Markets are also waiting for a crucial CPI report that could determine whether the Federal Reserve raises rates next week. And Oracle's results ease concerns that AI spending isn't paying off.
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Today's recommended read: Can Africa seize its moment in the race for critical minerals? by Andy Home
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AI and the Apocalypse
U.S. President Donald Trump says the Iran war won't end before the midterms and is proposing $5,000 checks for every American, raising fresh questions for inflation and bond markets. The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates again as energy prices climb. And an AI researcher who resigned from Anthropic says the company and its rivals are acting irresponsibly and that the technology could pose a threat to humanity.
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Today's recommended read: Is the dollar policy 'mini Mar-a-Lagos' or Whac-A-Mole?, Mike Dolan
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Banned in the USA
The U.S.-Canada trade war is escalating from tariffs to outright import bans, with Washington blocking roughly a billion dollars' worth of Canadian dairy, alcohol, motorcycles and Bombardier jets. The move follows Canadian retaliatory tariffs and how Ottawa responds next is now the focus of markets and governments around the world.
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Today's recommended read: In a global economic heatwave, beware financial wildfires, Mike Dolan
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Yen at Work
Japan's yen surges to seven-month highs as markets price in a near-certain Bank of Japan rate rise, raising fresh questions about the carry trade. Meanwhile, Iran threatens the U.S. with economic warfare as Brent crude approaches $100 a barrel, and strong global data points to a world economy building steam.
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Today's recommended read: Trump's baffling Fed threat could be gift to Warsh, Mike Dolan
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<Labor gains
A blowout U.S. jobs report for August keeps pressure on the Fed ahead of Friday's CPI print and a rate decision next week. meanwhile, the ECB is set to hike on Thursday, diesel hits record highs, and a far-right party is on the cusp of taking power in a German state for the first time since World War 2.
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Today's recommended read: China's cruse oil imports stayed weak in August. Can this continue?, Clyde Russell
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Waller's inflation signal
Fed Chair Christopher Waller is urging policymakers to "give disinflation a chance," lowering expectations for a September rate hike. Investors are now watching the August jobs report for fresh clues on the economy. And record-high diesel prices are adding to inflation worries ahead of winter.
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Today's recommended read: Hedge funds pose greater threat to US Treasuries than China ever did by Jamie McGeever
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Payrolls pending
Stocks, bonds and oil are steadier as traders look for clues on the U.S. labor market. The yen is jumping again as speculation builds over possible intervention and higher Japanese interest rates. And Broadcom's latest forecast is reinforcing expectations for years of AI-driven investment.
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Today's recommended read: US hyperscalers' euro thirst - lifeblood or vampire? by Mike Dolan
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Bonds strike back
A global bond selloff is gathering pace as war-driven oil prices add to inflation worries. New Zealand kicks off what could be a month of global rate hikes. And strong earnings from Dell and Palo Alto Networks suggest the AI boom is still powering ahead.
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Today's recommended read: The 'real' deal - world bonds grind towards higher neutral rates by Mike Dolan
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September jitters
A global bond market rout is deepening as investors fret about rate hikes and worsening fiscal conditions. G20 finance chiefs are gathering as those rising bond yields and Russia's presence at the meeting stir tensions. Plus, Shein shares tumble after a Hong Kong IPO values the company at a fraction of its former worth.
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Today's recommended read: The America's oil bonanza will outlast the Iran conflict by Ron Bousso
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...Warsh's big moment
All eyes are on Jackson Hole as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces pressure to clarify his thinking on inflation and interest rates. Nvidia's blockbuster outlook reignites the AI trade, lifting tech stocks even as much of the market lags behind. Plus, France's presidential race is brining debt worries back into focus for investors
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Today's recommended read: The US needs more aluminum - and it needs it now by Andy Home
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Nvidia's growth gamble
Wall Street rewarded Nvidia after another blockbuster quarter and a bold 2027 growth forecast adding fresh fuel to the AI boom. Investors are watching Jackson Hole after fresh PCE inflation data kept pressure on the Federal Reserve. Plus, oil prices fell as markets bet diplomacy could ease disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
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Today's recommended read: Monetarist resurrection, or timely rethink of inflation targeting? by Mike Dolan
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Betting on Nvidia
Hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen are pushing oil prices lower and calming bond markets. Investors are bracing for fresh U.S. inflation data that could shape the Fed's next move. Plus, Nvidia's earnings will test whether Wall Street still believes AI investment can keep accelerating.
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Today's recommended read: Europe's autumn reckoning - bonds, budgets, billionaires by Mike Dolan
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Canada prices in Trump
U.S. President Donald Trump is threatening 50% tariffs on Canadian-made vehicles, testing one of North America's closest economic partnerships. Washington unveiled its anti-Iran financial crackdown but left key details for later. And investors are looking ahead to Nvidia earnings for clues about whether the AI boom can justify its price tag.
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Today's recommended read: The US fiscal hole has an AI problem at its core by Mike Dolan
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