Capital Creek Partners - 3in10

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott recaps the Capital Creek Investor Conference, noting insatiable demand for electric power across nearly every panel. He then assesses the state of AI, arguing the sector is in a slowdown rather than a bust. Lastly, Scott analyzes SpaceX’s blowout quarter as emblematic of an unprecedented demand for capital.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. He analyzes the hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI data, explaining why an October Fed hike is unlikely but December looks live. He then summarizes the IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report, highlighting AI spending as the top risk. Lastly, Scott recounts bank earnings, noting widening net interest margins and clean credit against fading buybacks.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. He explains why the 40-year decline in interest rates has reversed, driven by persistent demand for capital. He then assesses inflation’s higher resting heart rate and the potential for a rotation from stocks into bonds. Lastly, Scott highlights two overlooked inflation data points, noting why they point to further Fed hikes.

In this special edition episode of 3in10, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, sits down with Tim Sloan, Vice Chairman and Global Head of Real Estate at Fortress and former CEO of Wells Fargo, to discuss today's credit and commercial real estate landscape. Scott and Tim begin with the U.S. credit environment, where Tim flags recent frauds, software exposure, and growing interconnection in AI financing. Tim also frames the wall of commercial real estate maturities as an opportunity for experienced lenders and calls credit's shift from banks to private markets permanent. Lastly, Tim reiterates...

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott assesses the Trump-Xi summit, noting that beyond the pageantry, Trump avoided trading geopolitical ground for commercial gain. He then explains why 10-year TIPS yields near 3%, a generational high, offer a real alternative to equities. Lastly, Scott analyzes September's booming flash PMIs, noting they strengthen the case for more Fed hikes.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott assesses six converging headwinds, from an AI slowdown to a global tightening cycle, behind his tactically cautious view on equities. He then highlights August retail sales, noting the strongest control-group reading in nearly two years and a resilient high-end consumer. Lastly, Scott explains why Chair Warsh's hawkish hike signals more rate increases to come and a Fed reasserting its independence.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott assesses the hotter core CPI print, arguing the Fed's hike next week will not be one and done. He then recounts Oracle's earnings, noting tighter credit spreads offer relief as investors fixate on the balance sheet. Lastly, Scott highlights mounting AI fears, warning a CapEx slowdown could force cuts to growth and earnings estimates.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. He recounts Dell's blowout earnings and record AI backlog, noting that AI shortages are now raising technology costs rather than lowering them. He then assesses Governor Waller's dovish speech and its pushback against a locked-in September hike. Lastly, Scott analyzes the August payrolls surprise, noting benign wage growth leaves next week's CPI as the Fed's deciding factor.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, departs from the usual three-theme format to focus on one key topic: Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. He analyzes Warsh's seven principles, highlighting the "no excuses" commitment to 2% headline PCE, the return of monetarism, and a quieter Fed less reliant on forward guidance. Lastly, he explains why the speech reads hawkish, with markets now pricing one to two hikes by year-end.

In this special edition 3in10, Scott Slayton is joined by Lu Zhang, founder of Fusion Fund, days after Time named the firm one of America's top 100 VC funds. Capital Creek is an LP in Fusion Fund IV. Lu explains why the AI buildout is still early, the shift from language models to physical AI and agents, open source versus closed models, the emerging multi trillion dollar space economy built around SpaceX, breakthroughs in healthcare AI, and her take on new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott begins with the global Treasury bear market, where softer data hasn't stopped yields from rising and September rate cut odds have fallen to 28%. Additionally, he highlights CoreWeave's smaller-than-expected loss and raised CapEx guidance, which sent the stock up 20% on evidence AI demand keeps broadening. Lastly, Scott delves into the Iran oil conflict, warning that shrinking inventories could turn dire by early October.

In this special edition of 3in10, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, sits down with Rich Hall, President, CEO, and CIO of UTIMCO, marking his three years leading one of the nation's largest endowments. Rich explains why UTIMCO's biggest challenge is scale, not staffing, and how its Permian Basin land gives it a cash flow edge that lets it take less risk than peers. He also details UTIMCO's PATS framework for selecting managers and the changes he has driven since becoming CEO, including a new Strategic Holdings program and an in-house platform called Dockside. Rich...

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott begins with a defense of Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, expecting the Fed to resume tightening in September and December. Additionally, he explains Capital Creek's tactically cautious stance on risk assets, citing weakening liquidity, toppy mega-cap tech, and an escalating Iran conflict. Lastly, Scott delves into why gold likely has 15 to 25% more downside to around $3,300.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott begins with rising real interest rates, driven by sticky inflation and AI-capex demand, and the higher cost of capital it implies for markets. Additionally, he previews the July 29th Fed decision, expecting Warsh to hold off until September despite having the votes. Lastly, Scott ties Capital One, Synchrony, and Amex earnings to a resilient consumer, citing falling delinquencies and 11% spend growth.

In this special edition episode of 3in10, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, welcomes back Doug Terreson, former head of global energy at Morgan Stanley and Evercore, for a return conversation on how the US-Iran conflict is reshaping oil markets. Scott and Doug begin with the Strait of Hormuz and the broken ceasefire, as Doug explains why collapsing inventories forced Washington's hand even as prices fell. Doug then lays out his refining thesis, highlighting record crack spreads and Russian and Gulf supply losses that make refined products the real bottleneck, and weighs the super majors...

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. He assesses the collapsed US-Iran ceasefire and the market's striking calm, especially oil's failure to rally. He then analyzes the hawkish June FOMC minutes, noting inflation risks skewed to the upside and calls for rate hikes. Lastly, Scott recounts Pepsi's disappointing quarter, arguing the cheap, depressed stock is overdue for shareholder-value action.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott begins with June's soft jobs headline, masking a still-solid labor market that argues against a July Fed hike. Additionally, he notes real rates fell to -50 basis points, the lowest since 2023, giving the Fed room to hike. Lastly, Scott delves into the DSA's shocking primary wins in New York and Colorado, a populist shift worth watching.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott begins with May core PCE, which printed in line at 3.41% but masks a troubling trend higher, as services and accelerating supercore inflation point to a likely Fed hike and reinforce CCP's underweight on U.S. fixed income. Additionally, he analyzes Micron's blowout quarter, arguing the real story is a structurally durable memory cycle, with 85% gross margins and supply sold out through 2028 making memory the new oil. Lastly, Scott delves into the implications of an inflationary boom...

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week.

Scott opens with the 14-point memorandum of understanding to end the US-Iran war, signed Wednesday. He walks through the points that matter most for markets, including the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, $300 billion in reconstruction funds, the lifting of sanctions, and roughly $100 to $120 billion in unfrozen Iranian assets. While he views the deal as reasonable but tilted toward Iranian interests, and the 60-day timeline as unrealistic, he explains why the restored...

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott recounts the Morgan Stanley Financial Services Conference, highlighting a spending super cycle and dismissing fears over private credit. He then assesses Lennar's earnings, noting a depressed housing consumer but contrarian signals near cyclical lows. Lastly, Scott reiterates his punch bowl thesis amid mixed inflation data.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week.

Scott opens with a contrarian case for Fed tightening, arguing that a rate hiking cycle beginning later this year is more likely than markets are pricing. He points to a two-year Treasury yield sitting roughly 60 basis points above the fed funds rate, a confirmed uptrend in the ECRI Future Inflation Gauge, the stimulative effects of the Iran war, and a Taylor Rule calling for meaningfully tighter policy making the case that the Fed risks falling...

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott digs into first quarter 2026 earnings, which posted a headline growth rate of 28.4% year over year but were flattered by over $50 billion in AI-related investment gains from Google and Amazon, making the adjusted growth rate closer to high teens which is still very strong, but less euphoric than the headline suggests. He then unpacks the global yield shock sweeping G20 bond markets, driven by warflation from the Iran-US conflict pushing food and energy prices higher in tandem...

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott explains why natural gas is one of only two commodities down in 2026 despite a roaring commodity bull market, pointing to surging shale production that continues to outpace export capacity while noting that the massive US-Europe price arbitrage and summer weather could change the picture fast. He then digs into this week's CPI and PPI releases, arguing that a re-acceleration in inflation is clearly underway in both core services and goods, a trend that was building before...

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott delves into the April Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey, highlighting tighter standards on business and private credit lending that should weigh on growth later in 2026. He then assesses the April employment report, explaining why the 48,000 three-month average is the Goldilocks number to embrace amid an unusually broad-based set of industry gains. Lastly, Scott recounts Apollo's earnings, noting Marc Rowan's increasingly defensive posture even as markets hit new highs.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down two key market themes for the week. Scott connects the dots across ECRI's future inflation gauge, March core PCE, and ISM prices paid, arguing a cyclical upturn in inflation was in place well before the Iran war and that the Fed has quietly moved to neutrality for 2026. He then walks through Exxon's first quarter earnings beat and management's commentary on oil, refining, and chemicals, crediting CEO Darren Woods with a multi-year turnaround in returns, free cash flow, and shareholder value.

In this special edition episode of 3in10, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, sits down with Britt Harris, former CIO of UTIMCO and founder of Titans of Investing, to discuss the seven storms reshaping the investment landscape. Scott and Britt begin by framing why the post-2020 era breaks from the four-decade regime that preceded it. Britt then walks through the seven storms — debt, China, climate, AI, world order, millennials, and corporate concentration — highlighting how sovereign-scale companies and passive ownership are reshaping capitalism. Britt also discusses what the new regime means for allocators, noting that the refl...

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott recounts the Washington consensus from the IMF/World Bank Meetings, highlighting stagflation fears, a broken transatlantic alliance, an ascendant China, and near-universal belief that the dollar is a short. He then summarizes the conference's favorite trades — long EM assets, long commodities and gold, short treasuries, and short the dollar — noting his own discomfort with how crowded they've become. Lastly, Scott highlights the contrarian signals worth watching, including JP Morgan's call that the Fed's next move is a hi...

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott assesses the equity market's sharp relief rally on Iran deescalation, noting that while he remains tactically cautious from his March 4th "As Long As It Takes" call, this week's price action held in a way that demands attention ahead of Saturday's negotiations. He then delves into February core PCE and March CPI, reiterating that inflation is embedded at 3% and on track to miss the Fed's target for a sixth consecutive year. Lastly, Scott previews first quarter...

In this episode of 3in10, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, examines the hidden economic costs of the Iran war, including the slowdown in Middle Eastern capital flows and reduced foreign demand for U.S. securities. He then breaks down the latest ISM Manufacturing numbers and what they reveal about rising price pressures beneath the headline strength. Finally, Scott discusses the implications if the U.S. disengages without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and why that scenario could prolong higher oil prices, elevated yields, and continued pressure on risk assets.

In this episode of 3in10, Scott Slayton provides an update on the Iran war and the battle over the Strait of Hormuz, outlining why sustained energy disruption keeps pressure on global risk assets. He then breaks down the “three bullets to the brain” for markets: tightening financial conditions, rising recession odds, and geopolitical shock. Finally, Scott explains why commodities are leading in 2026 and how the supercycle may be shifting from precious metals to energy.

In this episode of 3in10, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, provides updated analysis on the escalating war in Iran and its implications for energy markets and global risk assets. He discusses the February PPI report, which surprised to the upside and reinforces a developing uptrend in inflation. Finally, Scott shares his takeaways from the latest Fed meeting, where policymakers held rates steady amid rising inflation risks and growing uncertainty around growth. He outlines why energy prices, inflation pressures, and constrained Fed flexibility create a more challenging backdrop for equities.

In this episode of Three in 10, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, focuses on the escalating war in Iran and its implications for global markets. Scott explains why the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the disruption of oil flows could represent a major economic shock that investors may be underestimating. He outlines the potential for significantly higher oil prices and why that scenario would pressure both stocks and bonds. Scott concludes with a more cautious near-term outlook for risk assets as geopolitical uncertainty rises.

In this special edition of 3in10, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, sits down with Drew McKnight, Co-CEO of Fortress Investment Group, for a discussion on private credit markets and the changing investment landscape. The conversation explores the growth of private credit, the role it plays as banks retreat from lending, and why strong underwriting and asset management matter in today’s environment. They also discuss parallels between the internet boom of the late 1990s and the current surge in AI investment. McKnight shares how Fortress evaluates risk across software, consumer lending, and energy while pr...

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott begins with an analysis of markets, reviewing the complex landscape that geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and AI create as investors move capital into different investments. Additionally, Scott reviews the ongoing challenges in crypto markets as Bitcoin has been pummeled recently. He believes that a diversified allocation into Bitcoin and gold could be beneficial. Lastly, Scott mentions Dell's recently reported earnings, highlighting the stellar performance and shareholder friendly practices of the company.

In this special edition of 3in10, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, sits down with Dr. William Inboden, Executive Vice President and Provost at UT Austin, for a wide-ranging discussion on geopolitics and higher education. Dr. Inboden addresses the erosion of public trust in American universities and the steps needed to restore credibility and accountability. The conversation explores the importance of federal research funding and the role universities play in preserving America’s technological edge amid rising competition with China. They examine whether the United States is entering a new world order and what shifting gl...

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott begins with the growing leadership shift toward industrials, materials, energy, and global cyclicals. What he calls the “revenge of the old economy” as international markets and value sectors outperform large-cap U.S. technology. Next, he discusses Japan’s political transition and the rise of its new prime minister, outlining the implications for defense spending, fiscal policy, the yen, and broader Asian markets. To tie it all together, Scott analyzes this week’s non-farm payrolls and CPI data, ex...

In this special edition 3in10 episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, delivers the firm’s 2026 Strategy Outlook. Based on six weeks of research and the most important charts from the report, Scott explains why economic growth remains stronger than consensus, why the U.S. dollar is entering a prolonged downtrend, and how this environment is driving a broad rotation across global equities, commodities, fixed income, and alternative investments. Scott concludes with Capital Creek’s key portfolio themes for navigating a tougher but opportunity-rich investment landscape in 2026.

The full 2026 Investment Outl...

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott begins with an overview of his dollar thesis, stating that he believes that the dollar has begun its next leg downward due to many reasons. Next, he discusses the Fed's decision at the January meeting to keep rates steady in light of labor market data and inflation. To tie it all together, Scott analyzes President Trump's choice of Kevin Warsh for Fed chair and the implications this brings for markets, interest rates, and the Fed.

In this special edition episode of 3in10, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, sits down with Doug Terreson, former Head of Global Energy at Morgan Stanley, to discuss oil markets, geopolitics, and the macro-outlook. Scott and Doug begin by reviewing Doug’s career in energy and his perspective on current oil market fundamentals, including supply-demand imbalances and OPEC’s recent production decisions. They then turn to Venezuela and Iran, where Doug shares firsthand insight into production declines, regime risk, and the challenges of restoring meaningful output. Lastly, Scott and Doug connect oil prices to inflation, inte...

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott reviews the recent case brought against Jerome Powell and the implications it has for global markets; Scott remarks about how markets have viewed this as political rather than substantive. Additionally, Scott analyzes credit spreads and bank earnings, concluding that credit markets will likely have large issuances in the near term while spreads have returned to previous lows. Lastly, Scott discusses the potential for an Iranian regime change and what it means for the global economy, oil...