Energy Markets Daily

Monday, May 25, 2026. CRUDE OIL: WTI opened week at $92.04, down 4.72% from Friday's close of $96.60. Drop driven by negotiations advancing toward potential short-term agreement on Strait of Hormuz reopening. Week recap: May 22 open $98, close $96.60; May 21 open $98.95, close $96.35; May 20 open $104.12, close $98.26; May 24 close $92.13. Trend clear: crude pricing in de-escalation. Trump stated agreement "has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization," explicitly linking it to Strait reopening. Indicated willingness to wait a few days for "right answer" while keeping pressure in place. KEY LEVELS: Support $90, below that $85. Resistance $95, above that $100. SETUP: If deal announced, expect break below $90, target $80-$85. If talks collapse, back to $100+. NATURAL...

Friday, May 22, 2026. CRUDE OIL RECAP: Mon $108.66 (+3%), Tue $107.77 (-0.82%), Wed $98.26 (-8.82% sharp drop on peace deal progress), Thu $97.73 (-0.54%), Fri $98.30 (+0.58%). Weekly range $96-$109, volatile mid-week plunge followed by partial recovery. Crude tumbled May 20 on reports of progress toward US-Iran peace deal that could reopen Strait of Hormuz; prices stabilized as negotiations remained fluid. Technical: Rebound from April lows near $79, golden cross forming on longer-term moving averages, warnings of potential corrections toward $95-$100 support. Volatility: Continued noisy trading, wide possible range $80 floor to $120 ceiling depending on de-escalation or further disruptions. Year-over-year: Prices remain elevated but face downward pressure from potential resolution of...

Thursday, May 21, 2026. CRUDE OIL: EIA report (May 20, week ending May 15) bullish. U.S. commercial crude inventories fell 7.86M barrels to 445M barrels (2% below five-year average). Refinery crude inputs averaged 16.3M b/d (down 80K b/d from prior week), utilization 91.6% of operable capacity. Motor gasoline inventories down 1.5M barrels (5% below five-year average). Distillate fuel inventories up 0.4M barrels (9% below five-year average). Total commercial petroleum inventories declined 9M barrels week-over-week. Crude oil imports averaged 6M b/d (up 116K b/d from prior week). WTI spot price May 15: $108.99/bbl (up $10.12 from prior week, up $45.15 year-over-year). May 21: WTI trading near $99/bbl (down...

Wednesday, May 20, 2026. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report drops 10:30 AM ET, covering week ended May 15. Previous report (May 13): U.S. commercial crude inventories fell 4.306M barrels to 452.9M barrels for week ended May 8, exceeding analyst forecasts of ~2.0-2.1M barrel draw (bullish signal, tighter supplies). EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook projects large global oil inventory draws averaging 8.5M barrels/day in Q2 2026 due to Middle East supply disruptions. If today's report shows another draw, crude stays bid; if build, profit-taking possible. Brent expected to average ~$106/bbl in May-June 2026, WTI tracks Brent at discount. EIA now sees 2026 Brent averaging $95, WTI mid-$80s (both...

Tuesday, May 19, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI $102.35-$102.66, bullish momentum intact. RSI 51.27 (neutral, neither overbought nor oversold, room to run). MACD -0.08 (sell signal, mild bearish momentum but broader trend up). STOCHRSI 69 (Buy), Williams %R -35.78 (Buy), Ultimate Oscillator 59.29 (Buy). Overall: Strong Buy. Moving Averages: Most short-term (5/10/20-day) in Buy territory, 50-day mixed. Support: $97-$98 (former resistance, now support on dips), $95, $93.60 (short-term bearish threshold). Resistance: $104 (strong, recently tested), $104-$105 zone, $108-$110. Daily high projection $109.09. Pattern: Bullish momentum targeting $104+, profit-taking possible at resistance. Watch $100-$104 range. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Henry Hub $3.02-$3.03, near seven-week high. Resistance: $3.024 (20-day Bollinger Band top), April highs...

Monday, May 18, 2026. WTI $100.65-$102, bullish bias intact, uptrend continues. Price above 20/50-day MAs, Strong Buy on daily/weekly, RSI 53-54 (neutral-positive, not overbought). Support $97-$98, $95, $93. Resistance $103-$105, $107-$108, $110-$114. Ascending triangle pattern suggests upside continuation if $100-$102 holds. Geopolitical: Negotiations active but deadlocked, Iran rejected latest US proposal (Trump called "totally unacceptable"), US wants 20-year suspension or 12-15-year moratorium on high-level uranium enrichment, Iran wants enrichment rights/full sanctions relief/Strait control. Project Freedom paused, blockade remains active, minor clashes May 7, Iran conducted attacks in UAE early May, Trump warned of "different route" if talks fail, military options on...

Friday, May 15, 2026. WEEK 20 RECAP: WTI $97.01 → $100.37 peak → $101.56-$101.68 close. Strong Buy across MAs. Henry Hub $2.847-$2.96, Strong Buy bias. EIA: Crude -2.3M, gasoline -2.5M, distillate -1.3M (tight). Gas storage +63 Bcf (surplus building). Demand strong, refinery utilization 90.1%, LNG exports running. Geopolitical: Negotiations stalled, Iran rejected US proposal, Trump considering reviving Project Freedom, security team met to discuss options, ceasefire on life support. Escalation scenario: crude $120-150, gas $4.50+. Deal scenario: crude $70-80, gas $2.50-2.75. GEOGRAPHIC FEATURE: ALASKA. ANS March 2026: 410,111 bpd (up 0.4% MoM, down 3.74% YoY). Total ANS incl. NGL: 460,555 bpd. Prudhoe Bay: 201,488 bpd crude (80.8% of field, up 3.42% MoM), 249,416 bpd total (up 2.69% MoM...

Thursday, May 14, 2026. EIA Natural Gas Storage Report released 10:30 AM ET (week ending May 8). Henry Hub $2.74 (up from $2.66). Consensus forecast +86 Bcf injection, projected inventory ~2,291 Bcf. Latest (week ending May 1): 2,205 Bcf (+63 Bcf), +75 Bcf YoY, +139 Bcf vs. 5-yr avg. Storage in surplus, injection season ongoing, ample inventories pressuring prices. Demand strong, refinery utilization high, LNG exports running. WTI $101.56-$101.68, Strong Buy across MAs (11 Buy signals), RSI 52.67 (neutral), MACD -0.01 (slight bearish divergence), STOCH 57.5 (bullish). Pivot 101.47, support 101.37/101.26/101.16, resistance 101.58/101.68/101.79. Geopolitical: Negotiations stalled, Iran rejected US proposal as "totally unacceptable," Trump considering reviving Project Freedom as part of broader operation, security team met to discuss options...

Wednesday, May 13, 2026. EIA Petroleum Report released 10:30 AM ET (week ending May 8). WTI $101-$110 range. Last week $109.76, prior $105.38. Crude inventories (week ending May 1): -2.3M to 457.2M (1% above 5-yr avg). Refinery inputs 16.0 Mbpd, utilization 90.1%. Gasoline -2.5M (below avg), distillate -1.3M (11% below avg). Tight data, strong demand. Henry Hub $2.917, storage 2,205 Bcf (+63 Bcf), +3.5% YoY, +6.7% vs. 5-yr avg. EIA expects $3.10 Q2/Q3. Geopolitical: US-Iran far apart, Trump rejected Iran proposal, Pentagon costs $29B, Strait traffic down 80-90%, Iran threatens 90% uranium enrichment if Project Freedom resumes. Inflection point: deal or escalation. Escalation scenario: crude $120-150, gas $4.50+. Deal scenario: crude $70-80, gas $2.50-2.75. Capital...

Tuesday, May 12, 2026. WTI $97.01-$98.25, recent high $100.37. Mixed signals: Investing.com Strong Sell vs. CSFX bullish D1 (price above EMA20/50/200, RSI 54.29). RSI(14) 45.70 (neutral), STOCH 34.42 (sell), MACD 0.42 (buy), Williams %R -90 (oversold). Resistance $98.97/$99.87/$101.04, support $96.90/$95.73/$94.83. CSFX trade: buy $97-99, SL $93.50, TP1 $104, TP2 $108-110. ATR 1.01 (high volatility). Henry Hub $2.847 (+5-6%), spot $2.91, June $2.817 (+2.18%). Strong Buy bias: all 12 MAs buy, 8/9 indicators buy. RSI 63.27 (buy), MACD 0.011 (buy), CCI 164 (buy), Williams %R -14.67 (overbought). Crude mixed, gas strong buy. Geopolitical premium still in market.

Monday, May 11, 2026. BREAKING: Project Freedom paused after 24 hours. Iran claims disabled 4 US vessels (US denies). Trump pitching "Project Freedom Plus" — full expansion to reopen strait if no deal soon. Ball in Tehran's court. WTI $98.38 (EIA May 7), range $95-$101, June futures $95.42 (+0.64%). Henry Hub spot $2.67, Markets Insider $2.83, June futures $2.750 (-0.69%). EIA: commercial crude -2.3M to 457.2M (1% above 5-yr avg), gasoline -2.5M (4% below avg), distillate -1.3M (11% below avg). Downside $70-75 if deal, upside $120-150 if escalation. Negotiations critical. Trade the data.

Friday, May 8, 2026. Kazakhstan is Central Asia's energy powerhouse. 9th largest oil producer globally. April 2026: 1.93M bbl/d, up month-on-month. Oil/gas condensate output +16% MoM. 2026 target: 100.5M tons, but CPC pipeline issues may cause shortfall. Forecasts: 1.7-1.97M bbl/d. Q1 2026 natural gas: 13.6 Bcm, down 15.1% YoY. 2026 forecast: 62.7 Bcm. KazMunayGas 2025: 26.211M tons (+10% YoY), 2026 outlook 26.4M tons. OPEC+ quotas constraining growth. Druzhba pipeline issues: 260K tons rerouted to Germany (May 2026). NATO partner, EU energy supplier. Inflection point: infrastructure constraints vs. production strength. Watch CPC pipeline, OPEC+ quotas, ramp announcements. Could be swing producer for global markets.

Thursday, May 7, 2026. Sudan is a cautionary tale. Pre-war (April 2023): 70,000 bbl/d. Now: 30,000 bbl/d. 57% collapse. Heglig field (largest) lost 20,000-25,000 bbl/d due to shutdowns and damage. Energy Minister: 50% production loss since war start. Oil infrastructure is frontline asset. Rival factions broker temporary truces to maintain minimal flows. Refineries shut down. Fuel shortages widespread. War cost billions in lost revenues. Sudan's crisis marginalized in global markets — doesn't threaten world energy security. South Sudan spillover: sharing fields/pipelines, facing similar disruptions but targeting 100,000 bbl/d ramp. Sudan in productive paralysis.

Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Ontario is Canada's most populous province but a rounding error in oil and gas. Crude: 498 bbl/d (2023),

Tuesday, May 5, 2026. WTI June futures $101.94, intraday $102.17 (+0.23%), continuous contract $104.34. Prediction markets: 61¢ for $102+. Resistance $102-103, support $100/$98/$95. Project Freedom launched overnight — US military guiding ships, Iran sank six boats after attack attempt. Clashes reported. Inflection point: if Hormuz opens, crude $70-75; if escalation, $120-150. Henry Hub spot $2.86 (+2.77%), forward curve steep. Crude down 6.2M, gasoline down 6.1M, distillate down 4.5M. Volatility extreme. Capital preservation first.

Monday, May 4, 2026. BREAKING: Trump announces "Project Freedom" — US begins escorting neutral ships from Strait of Hormuz starting Monday. Iran protests, calls it ceasefire violation. Trump signals "very positive discussions" with Iran, potential deal coming. WTI $101.89 (-0.05%), June futures $101.81, July $96.64. Henry Hub June $2.825 (+1.62%), July $3.119 (+1.43%). EIA: crude -6.2M, gasoline -6.1M, distillate -4.5M, refinery util 89.6%. Downside $70-75 if deal, upside $120-150 if talks fail. Trade the data.

Friday, April 30, 2026. Geographic Spotlight: China. World's largest energy consumer: 14M bpd oil, 600 Bcm/yr gas. Imports 10M bpd, 45% from Middle East including Iran. Hormuz blockade threatens energy security. World's largest solar/EV producer. Energy transition gradual. Geopolitical leverage: could pressure US on blockade or accelerate transition. Watch imports, renewable policy, China-US relations.

Thursday, April 30, 2026. Geographic Spotlight: Norway. World's 2nd-largest crude exporter (1.7M bpd), 3rd-largest gas exporter (120 Bcm/yr). Supplies 25% of Europe's natural gas. NATO ally, EEA member. 98% hydropower. Energy transition challenge: economy dependent on oil/gas revenues. Geopolitical leverage in Hormuz blockade scenario. Watch production data, policy shifts, new field development.

Wednesday, April 29, 2026. WTI closes $107.11 (+7.19% or +$7.18), open $99.41, high $107.65. Trump rejects Iran deal, prepares extended blockade. Henry Hub $2.64 (-1.92%), down 8.58% monthly. EIA: commercial crude -6.2M to 459.5M, distillate -11% below avg, refinery util 89.6%. Downside $70-75 if deal, upside $120-150 if blockade holds. Trade the data.

Tuesday, April 28, 2026. WTI $97.38 (+1.05%), range $96.26-$97.55. Inverted head and shoulders intact, buyers control. Trump rejects Iran proposal, maintains blockade. Downside risk $70-75 if deal accepted, upside $120-150 if talks collapse. Henry Hub $2.717 (-0.51%), Strong Buy technicals, 7 Buy signals, overbought RSI/CCI. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Monday, April 27, 2026. BREAKING: Iran offers to reopen Strait of Hormuz + extend ceasefire indefinitely if US lifts blockade. Trump convening Situation Room. WTI $95-$96, Brent $105+. Henry Hub $2.57-$2.81. Downside risk $70-75 if deal accepted, upside $120-150 if talks collapse. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Friday, April 24, 2026. WTI opens $92, surges to $97 (+$7.74 week). Inverted head and shoulders bullish setup. Strait of Hormuz near-zero traffic. Iran's "Tehran Tollbooth" demands $2M per vessel. Henry Hub $2.58 (-1.43%), down 11.52% monthly. Forward curve steep. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Thursday, April 23, 2026. WTI surges to $97.19, settles $94.49 (+1.65%). EIA crude inventories +1.9M (expected -1.2M). Strait of Hormuz closed. Iran renewed vessel attacks. Negotiations stalled. Gas flat at $2.72 on steep forward curve. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Trump extends ceasefire indefinitely. Blockade remains. Iran's parliament calls for military escalation. API crude draw beats expectations. Gas forward curve steep on LNG demand. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Tuesday, April 21, 2026. WTI slips 1.5% to $88 on mixed peace talk signals. Iran signals escalation. Gas storage hits triple-digit excess. Golden Pass LNG exporting first cargo. Trade the data, not the fear.

Monday, April 20, 2026. Strait of Hormuz traffic down dramatically — only fraction of usual 130 vessels per day. War risk insurance at 3%. Iran firing warning shots, U.S. seized Iranian cargo ship. Trump blockade announced. WTI volatile on supply uncertainty. Henry Hub at $3.095 (April), 12-month strip $3.766. LNG exports 17.9 Bcf/d (record). 2026 forecast 17.0 Bcf/d, 2027 forecast 18.6 Bcf/d. New capacity 0.9 Bcf/d coming Q2. Summer demand, data center load growth driving tighter balance. Trade the data, not the fear.

Friday, April 17, 2026. South Africa produces virtually no crude oil. Current output: 550 barrels per day. Imports 95-100% of consumption (~700k bpd). Refining capacity 360k bpd, down from 80% domestic. April 1 fuel shock: petrol +R5/l, diesel +R8/l. Strategic reserves 8M barrels. Gas shortage reliant on Mozambique imports. Offshore potential: 13k MMbbl liquids, 38 Bcf gas. Brulpadda/Luiperd undeveloped. TotalEnergies 2026 drilling. Market size $91M (2024) → $325M (2033). 2026 critical for reforms. Next week: live industry updates resume.

Thursday, April 16, 2026. Colorado ranks #6 nationally by barrels of oil equivalent. DJ Basin dominates. Natural gas production 160,855 MMcf (Jan 2026). Proven reserves 1.442 billion barrels. Regulatory squeeze: air quality rules, water recycling mandate, methane emissions. Ballot measures threaten industry. Economic impact: $57.5B GDP, 325K jobs. Next week: live industry updates resume.

Wednesday, April 15, 2026. WTI trading $91-93 range, down from Monday's $104.90. EIA inventory report at 9:30 AM ET. Strait of Hormuz 95% traffic collapse. Henry Hub $2.60. Crude caught between supply disruption and demand destruction.

Tuesday, April 14, 2026. WTI at $96.87, down 2% from Monday's spike. Head and shoulders reversal forming. Neckline support at $95-$97. Henry Hub at $2.62, down 0.42%. Peace talk hopes fading war premium.

Monday, April 13, 2026. WTI at $104.90, up 8.64%. Brent at $102.20, up 7.38%. Trump threatens Strait of Hormuz blockade. Ceasefire talks failed. JPMorgan warns $120 possible.

Friday, April 10, 2026. Morocco's energy paradox: 87.5% dependent yet North Africa's renewable leader. Nador LNG terminal Q4 2026. Tendrara gas mid-2026. Africa's first offshore wind farm 2029.

Thursday, April 9, 2026. WTI $96.88, up 2.62%. Hormuz reopening eases supply fears, but Iran attacks Saudi pipeline. Ceasefire fragile. Trade the levels.

Wednesday, April 8, 2026. BREAKING: Two-week ceasefire agreed. Strait of Hormuz reopening. WTI plunged 14.3% to $96.82. War premium evaporated. Thesis vindicated. Mean reversion in progress. Henry Hub $2.77. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Tuesday, April 7, 2026. WTI trading in a $102.18 to $104.54 range. Price has overcome obstacles near $102, signaling re-entry into a bullish zone. RSI near 64. Henry Hub $2.80. Trump 8 PM ET deadline for Iran ceasefire. Trade the data, not the hope.

Monday, April 6, 2026. Geographic Spotlight: Thailand. Largest LNG capacity in SE Asia, declining domestic production, 50% crude from Middle East, LNG hub ambitions, 47% emissions reduction target by 2035.

Friday, April 3, 2026. Geographic Spotlight: Portugal. Sines LNG terminal, 70%+ renewable electricity, hydrogen pilot, zero domestic production, gateway to Southern Europe. Show returns Tuesday, April 7th.

Thursday, April 2, 2026. WTI surged to $104.96, up 4.84%. Trump addressed the nation. Iran denies direct talks but messages exchanged. Britain convening 35 countries on Strait reopening. Henry Hub $2.86, decoupled. Trade the data, not the hope.

Wednesday, April 1, 2026. WTI broke $100. Now trading $103.05. Prediction markets pricing 65¢ for $105+. Trump says ops could end in two weeks. Strait still closed. Henry Hub $2.87, decoupled. Trade the data, not the hope.

Tuesday, March 31, 2026. WTI holding $98-102 range. Prediction markets pricing 59¢ for $100+ by March 31. $100 is psychological and technical. Gas at $3.00, neutral to bullish. Trade the levels.