Alternate Shots with Richard Haass and John Ellis

This week on Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass begin with a discussion about the war(s) in the Middle East; the prospect and likely consequences of re-escalation, the role of the Houthis and the upcoming Israeli elections. From there, the two discuss Elon Musk's extraordinary role in the Ukraine war, the power of the tech elite more generally, and the worst week in cyber history, now known as "Black October." The sports section wraps things up. You'll never guess what Richard talks about.

Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass

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This week on Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass examine a world in which wars of choice are producing consequences nobody quite knows how to manage. They begin with Ukraine (Putin’s war of choice), where Haass calls American policy toward Russia nothing short of shameful, and the decision to restrict Ukraine’s military communications raises deeply troubling questions about Washington’s reliability and priorities. From there, they turn to Saudi Arabia, a Saudi war of choice in 2015 and where now the Houthis are threatening not simply the kingdom’s security but potentially the legitimacy and stability of the Hous...

This episode of Alternate Shots begins with a status report on the Iran War (who will cry "uncle" first, is the question), President Xi's mysterious "naps" at the White House, the upcoming Israeli election, the U.S. abandonment of Ukraine, the "plague" outbreak in Siberia, Pete Hegseth's presidential campaign and OpenAI's astonishing breakthrough(s) in mathematics. We end with the speedy departure of the New York Yankees from the MLB playoffs and the surprisingly competitive Nearby New York Giants. Reggie Jackson may need to hedge his bet.

Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass

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This week on Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass take stock of a world where institutions, summits, and alliances are showing their age. They begin with UN week in New York, where Haass argues the United Nations has become less an institution than a venue: useful for speeches and side meetings, but largely irrelevant when the major powers disagree. From there, they turn to the Trump-Xi summit, a quiet affair that may be preferable to the wrong kind of grand bargain. They also discuss Haass’s Foreign Affairs essay on Iran, where diplomacy is now the least bad op...

This week on Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass look ahead to the Trump-Xi summit and ask whether, in this instance, an uneventful meeting would be preferable to a consequential one. Haass worries not about failure, but about the wrong kind of success: a commercial deal purchased at the expense of Taiwan, American allies, or U.S. leverage on Russia and Iran. From there, they turn to AI, where the United States and China dominate the field but lack the trust, process, and perhaps urgency required to build meaningful guardrails. They also assess the Houthis’ expanding role in th...

This week on Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass consider a world in which old assumptions no longer hold. They begin with 9/11, what it did and did not change, and the danger that AI, drones, and biotechnology could make terrorism newly consequential. From there, they turn to diplomacy done backward: envoys courting Moscow before Kyiv, money offered where nationalism is the real currency, and the spreading crisis at sea as the Houthis threaten the Bab el-Mandeb. Also on the table: Iran, Saudi Arabia, oil prices, Treasury overreach, AI dread, the Giants, late-night tennis, and the Walker Cup.

This week on Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass ask whether declaring the Iran war over makes it so. Haass is skeptical: a blockade remains an act of war, retaliation remains likely, and the United States is still stuck in the gray zone between ceasefire and conflict. They also examine Russian support for Iran, the anti-American axis on display at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Turkey’s hedging, Venezuela’s oil gamble, inflation, the possibility of a blue wave, and the risks of AI escaping its sandbox. Finally, because every reputable outlet needs a sports section, they turn to the...

This week on Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass mark six months of the Iran war and ask: what went wrong? Many things is their answer. They're equally downbeat about Treasury Secretary's "D-Day" and President Trump's rekindled interest in North Korea, although not as downbeat as Stanley Druckenmiller and the South Koreans. The conversation then turns to the devastating research report from The British Medical Journal (BMJ) on professional (American) football players and CTE (brain damage). Bonus: a quick mini-roundup of sports news. 

Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass

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This week on Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass examine a world discovering that technology, politics, and war are moving faster than institutions built to manage them. They begin with Iran, where Haass argues Washington should have led with economic pressure, not military escalation, and where coercion now tests which side can endure more pain. From there, they turn to Ukraine’s drone advantage, America’s dated defense posture, and the need for something like a second Pentagon built for cheap, scalable systems. They also weigh deficits, vaccines, anti-vax politics, Democratic enthusiasm, Trump’s health, and the uneasy state...

This week on Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass assess a world in which imperfect outcomes may be the best available ones. They begin with Iran, where Haass sees a likely reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but not peace, not a ceasefire, and not a strategic victory. Tehran has gained leverage; Washington has limited options; and America’s defense-industrial base is proving ill-suited to the wars it may be asked to fight. From there, they turn to Ukraine’s air-defense crisis, the unreality of the latest Gaza peace plan, Israel’s growing estrangement from American politics, and the co...

This week on Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass assess a world in which overreach has become policy. They begin with Iran, where the United States and Tehran appear to be acting against their own interests: bombing, retaliation, threats to the Strait of Hormuz, and a memorandum of understanding that solved too little and conceded too much. Haass argues the next step should be a ceasefire, renewed nuclear diplomacy, and a more serious effort to reopen the strait. They then turn to a possible U.S.-Saudi nuclear arrangement, the absence of process in American foreign policy, Mayor...

This week on Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass ask whether Washington has anything resembling a Plan C for Iran. Haass offers one: First, accept that previous U.S. plans (first bombing our way to regime change or Iranian capitulation followed by an effort to negotiate an end to the war on reasonable terms) have all failed. Then he suggests adopting a new strategy, one that includes maintaining sanctions rather than rewarding Tehran, building Gulf defenses against Iranian drones and missiles, accelerating measures to gradually reduce the Strait’s strategic importance, and returning focus to the nuclear issue to...

This week on Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass take stock of a world long on ceasefires and short on strategy. They begin with the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, the subject of Haass’s recent Home and Away essay, bluntly titled “Defeat,” and ask whether the deal is less diplomacy than capitulation: vague on the nuclear question, silent on missiles, generous to Tehran, and dangerous for Israel and America’s partners. From there, they turn to Netanyahu’s narrowing room for maneuver, JD Vance’s warning to Israel, and the erosion of U.S. reliability. They then discuss...

John Ellis and Richard Haass take up a world in which problems are less solved than managed. Iran remains unfinished business, with the future of the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear limits on Iran, and sanctions relief all in play. What is certain is that the Gulf states face a future of greater uncertainty, with some likely to try to come to terms with Iran and others more inclined to confront it. China’s outreach to North Korea reveals an effort on Xi Jinping's part to reestablish influence there as well as the unease beneath his partnership with Putin as Ru...

For years, artificial intelligence occupied the familiar territory of technological optimism: faster growth, greater efficiency, and the promise that innovation would solve more problems than it created. That era may be ending. This week on Alternate Shots, Richard Haass and John Ellis examine the rapid emergence of AI not simply as a business story, but as a political, strategic, and even theological one. Prompted by a sweeping papal encyclical warning against surrendering human judgment to machines, the conversation explores the widening backlash against Silicon Valley’s concentration of power and the growing fear that societies are drifting into dependence on...

In this week’s Alternate Shots, Richard Haass and John Ellis begin with Iran, which remains suspended in the uneasy territory between war and peace.  Washington appears to be inching toward a revised nuclear arrangement that resembles, in substance if not in branding, the very deal Donald Trump tore up in his first term. Also emerging are growing tensions between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who may come to regret advocating for a war that has created growing problems for Israel's relations with its most important patron. In Asia, Trump’s remarks on Taiwan raise unsettling questions about...

John Ellis and Richard Haass discuss the latest on multiple wars, actual and political. They review the absence of good options for ending the war with Iran, noting that wars dont necessarily end when one side (in this case Donald Trump) has had enough.  The big question as the President heads to China is what he might be prepared to give up on Taiwan or chips to get Xi’s help with Iran or on trade. The surprising good news is how the tide of war is slowly but steadily turning against Vladimir Putin in his increasingly unsuccessful war of...

Alternate Shots returns with John Ellis and Richard Haass examining a geopolitical and domestic political landscape defined by drift. The crisis surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz underscores a broader reality: deterrence is fraying, diplomacy is episodic, and the risk of miscalculation is rising. The United States faces narrowing options, caught between rising economic pressure, a lack of promising military options, and the absence of a coherent endgame. Beyond the Middle East, transatlantic relations continue to erode, as Europe questions both American reliability and judgment. At home, political fragmentation reflects a deeper institutional fatigue, raising doubts about the...

In this episode of Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass tackle two wars, a Royal visit, and the world of sports. The conversation starts with the Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and leave the nuclear issue for later, which the Trump administration appears to be resisting but Haass argues the US should run with. From there, they pivot to the war in Ukraine, where Kyiv’s battlefield resilience and drone innovation are quietly reshaping modern warfare and building opposition to Putin at home. They then wind their way to the limits of royal diplomacy during Ki...

In this episode of Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass navigate a tumultuous week where cautious optimism collided with geopolitical reality.  The conversation ranges from Iran and the fragile ceasefire in and around the Strait of Hormuz to electoral upheaval in Hungary.  The hosts also speak their minds on the attacks aged by both the president and vice president on Pope Leo. They end with the apparent demise of the Saudi-supported LIV golf tour and this coming week’s NFL draft, which will go a long ways toward determining the fate of the once great but recently humbled NY G...

In this episode of Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass dissect a ceasefire that exists mostly on paper and a war that has created more problems than it has solved. The Strait of Hormuz has gone from highway to choke point, while what to do about Iran’s nuclear efforts and its support of proxies remains as much of a question as ever. Along the way, they critique a decision-making process dominated by a president that contains little in the way of process, expertise, or analysis. Fortunately, they end with their fearless and probably baseless predictions for this we...

In this episode of Alternate Shots, hosts John Ellis and Richard Haass dissect a familiar American illusion: that battlefield dominance equals strategic victory. Yes, Iran has taken a beating; but, as Haass notes, capability plus will still makes for a dangerous adversary. The conversation skewers the president’s speech which failed to articulate a strategy for what comes next. Meanwhile, Gulf allies fret, NATO frays into a polite fiction, and China quietly enjoys the distraction. The verdict: the U.S. may be winning the war it is fighting, but risks losing the one that matters. A classic case of me...

War, markets, and maritime choke points collide in this brisk tour of a Middle East crisis that could empty gas tanks worldwide. John Ellis and Richard Haass unpack whether the U.S. has really clipped Iran’s wings or merely annoyed a country that can still turn the Strait of Hormuz into the world’s most expensive parking lot. They debate mines, drones, insurance panic, election math, and a White House strategy that may be improvising in real time. Along the way, Haass unveils his stark “we break it, you own it” doctrine for allies now stuck holding the bill. It...

In this episode of Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass dissect the messy endgame of the US-Israeli war with Iran. They discuss leverage, informal and formal ceasefires, and strategy. The conversation explores whether and how Washington might end a conflict it started, given that Israel and Iran still have their own agendas. Haass explains why Iran’s biggest bargaining chip may be the Strait of Hormuz, where even the threat of disruption has sent oil markets into panic. The discussion widens to the geopolitical ripple effects: Russia and China quietly benefiting from U.S. distraction, Ukraine watching American we...

In this week’s episode of Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass dissect the widening conflict with Iran, asking the uncomfortable question: what exactly is the strategy? They debate the shaky logic behind Operation Epic Fury, the limits of American air-defense stockpiles, and why time may actually favor Tehran. Along the way, they examine how the war could boost Russia, drain resources needed for Ukraine, and rattle U.S. politics at home. The conclusion is sobering: wars of choice are easy to start, much harder to end, and the clock may already be ticking on Washington’s ability to c...

In this episode of Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass begin in Iran, where the Trump administration has assembled more military might than strategy.  From there, they unpack the recent Supreme Court decision on tariffs, making clear it will not lead to any clarity for the country’s trading partners. The conversation then moves south, where cartel violence potentially threatens both the United States and Mexico.  Closer to home, they examine the awkward but unavoidable topic of diminishing presidential capacity.  And last but not least, they somehow manage to end on a high note thanks to Olympic hockey.  

H...

In this episode of Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass begin with the recent Munich Security Conference. A focus is Marco Rubio's speech, which was praised by some but did little to reassure on Ukraine or on US support for a democratic Europe.

The conversation shifts to Asia, where Japan is undergoing a historic transformation in its national security posture, strengthening its defense and moving closer to Taiwan, much to China's dismay. Meanwhile, in North Korea, internal dynamics are drawing attention, particularly the emerging public profile of Kim Jong Un's daughter, which may signal new uncertainties...

In episode 16 of Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haassbegin with Iran and the critical question of how the U.S. defines “success” as well as the limits to what military force could accomplish. They then turn to the expiration of the New Start, the last remaining U.S.-Russians ams control pact, and the even bigger problem of horizontal proliferation—particularly if countries like South Korea and Japan begin doubting U.S. security guarantees. The discussion turns to concerns about the integrity of the upcoming U.S. midterm elections. Ellis and Haass examine the potential for voter suppression and in...

In this episode of Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass begin with the muddled US response to upheaval in Iran, highlighting the lack of clarity as to both US objectives and the potential role of military force. Here at home, they examine Minneapolis and the larger issue of immigration policy, arguing that Democrats would be wise to find a middle ground between both borders and the administration's excessive deportations on one hand and between "Abolish ICE" and letting ICE run amok on the other. They then turn to the growing brain drain in the sciences and the federal...

In episode 14 of Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass delve into the new "real estate doctrine" of American foreign policy, discussing the irrelevance of ownership in international relations, particularly in the context of Greenland. Haass critiques the U.S. shift from an approach to allies based on consent to one of coercion under the Trump administration, a shift that has raised fundamental concerns about America's reliability and intentions. The conversation also touches on the failure thus far of American policy toward Iran. The discussion discusses in detail the implications of Trump's speech at Davos, which among other things...

In the newest episode of Alternate Shots, hosts John Ellis and Richard Haass dig into many of the most pressing issues around the world. Iran is experiencing widespread protests against a regime that has lost widespread support. The Trump administration needs to decide on its definition of success there and how to bring it about. Haass and Ellis go on to discuss how Venezuela is an example of where the U.S. opted for considerably less than regime change—and is encountering problems in bringing about stability and large-scale oil development. The two agree that Trump's outlandish approach to Gr...

In the year's first episode of Alternate Shots, hosts John Ellis and Richard Haass discuss the U.S. intervention in Venezuela: what led to it, why it is better understood as leadership rather than regime change, and why the US might well encounter difficulties down the road. They also discuss what it is likely to mean for oil prices, its implications for U.S. interests in the region, and why Russia and China might be happier with it all than their public comments suggest.  

Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass

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In the latest episode of Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass look back at 2025, focusing on a Trump foreign policy that is radically different from what we have known for 80 years, the resistance of the Military Industrial Legislative Complex to much needed military reform, an executive branch that dominates both the Congress and the Supreme Court, and the adverse impact of a host of policies, from immigration to defunding research, on innovation. The conversation also delves into the AI bubble that isn't, the changing media landscape, and on two women shaking up the world of sports.

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In this episode of Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass discuss the recent National Security Strategy, highlighting a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy that has come to prioritize commercial interests and the Western Hemisphere over the balance of power in Europe and Asia, the rule of law, or traditional alliances. They delve into what is transpiring in and around Venezuela, and explore the implications of China's advances in fracking. The conversation also touches on President Trump's unsuccessful attempt in Pennsylvania to demonstrate he understands affordability concerns, the Biden administration's botched handling of immigration, and the controversial...

In this episode of Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass discuss flaws in the US approach to negotiating an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine on terms consistent with US interests, new doubts raised about U.S. foreign policy commitments to NATO and Taiwan, the complexities of attacking boats allegedly carrying drugs off Venezuela, and why we are spending our defense dollars in the wrong way. They also delve into the health of Donald Trump and the never-ending struggles of the New York Giants.

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In this episode of Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass discuss the recent developments in U.S. foreign policy, particularly focusing on the controversial Ukraine peace plan. They explore the implications of the plan, the disarray within the U.S. administration, and the public's sentiment towards Ukraine. The conversation also touches on the aftermath of the Afghanistan withdrawal, rising tensions between China and Japan, and concludes with a light-hearted discussion about the New York Giants' future in sports.

Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass

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Home and Away...

In this episode of "Alternate Shots," hosts John Ellis and Richard Haass dive into a range of pressing global issues and intriguing insights. John, the founder and editor of two Substack newsletters, and Richard, a seasoned expert in foreign relations, bring their unique perspectives to the table. They explore the complexities of U.S. military presence in the Caribbean, discussing its implications for Venezuela and the broader geopolitical landscape. The conversation shifts to Russia's ongoing conflict with Ukraine, examining the sustainability of Russia's war efforts and potential future scenarios.

The hosts also tackle the topic of U...

In this new episode of 'Alternate Shots', Richard and John discuss the diplomatic twists and turns of the Ukraine "peace" negotiations, the "Donroe Doctrine" and Venezuela, financial "cockroaches", and the politics of the U.S. government shutdown and Congressional map redistricting. At the end, Richard yet again bemoans the sorry state of the New York Giants. At the very end, John and Richard marvel at Shohei Ohtani's performance in Game Four of the NLCS. 

Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass

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John Ellis and Richard Haass discuss various pressing global issues, starting with the Middle East situation and the potential for a deal involving hostages and ceasefire in Gaza. They explore the political dynamics in Israel, the rise of right-wing politics in Europe, and the implications of AI-generated videos on political discourse. The discussion also touches on the declining trust in news media and the current government shutdown situation, concluding with heavy-hearted reflections on being a New York sports fan.

Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass

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Home and Away...

There was a famous rap song (at the time) entitled “Things That Make You Go Hmmmm”. That’s the general sentiment of this episode of “Alternate Shots”.

Richard and John discussed (1) President Trump’s “unusual” speech to the General Assembly of the United Nations, (2) the shift in the president’s thinking about the Ukraine war, one of more than one since his election, (3) H-IB visas vs. China’s K-Visa, (4) a gloomy American electorate, (5) Mr. Trump’s continued hold over the GOP and his declining support amongst Independents, and (6) Daniel “Indiana” Jones, the former NY Giants QB, now flourishing as the QB for...