AST SpaceMobile Podcast

AST SpaceMobile's $1.3B Firefly rocket deal explained ahead of Monday earnings and Thursday's NYC event. ASTS stock risks and upside.

In this episode, Anpanman digs into AST SpaceMobile's surprise move to partner with Firefly on a purpose-built launch vehicle. He explains why he sees it as an option and a hedge rather than a pivot, and compares it to the Ligado L-band spectrum deal that shocked investors at first but made sense later. He also covers how the launch market has shifted with orbital data centers, fixed wireless, sovereign networks, and direct-to-cell demand all...

AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) is building a 20-ton Blacklift rocket with Firefly to launch Bluebirds. Big NYC event Nov 12.

Anpanman breaks down the surprise AST SpaceMobile and Firefly deal to build a dedicated 20-ton rocket called Blacklift, designed to deliver up to 5 Bluebird satellites to LEO. He covers how the joint development works, including licensing Firefly's engine technology after 175 Miranda engine hot fire tests, and why a first flight at the end of 2028 will probably slip to 2029.

Anpanman also explains why assured launch access matters for the direct-to-cell satellite buildout...

AST SpaceMobile's exec reveals the first seamless satellite-to-tower handover, 60+ MNO deals and 3B reach. What it means for ASTS.

Anpanman brings you a keynote and panel from a Nokia-hosted event, with Luis of AST SpaceMobile explaining why the company builds the largest LEO satellites ever and keeps mobile operators in control. He covers the 60+ MNO partnerships with access to 3 billion subscribers, roughly 1 million square feet of manufacturing space, about 60 gateways in various stages of build-out, and why spectrum is now "more like diamond." For ASTS stock watchers, this is a detailed look at the...

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) dipped to $35 as Democrats swept the midterms. Anpanman explains why he bought and sees it as bullish.

Anpanman discusses why the Democratic sweep of the House and Senate could be a major tailwind for AST SpaceMobile and ASTS stock. He walks through how the Musk-aligned Republican political environment fed the "lazy trade" of going long SpaceX and short the MNOs and ASTS. He also covers AST's heavy retail ownership and how institutions view the stock compared with names like Rocket Lab and its Iridium acquisition.

The...

AST SpaceMobile and AT&T just completed a seamless satellite handoff on Oct 21. ASTS stock fell 6.8% anyway - here's the breakdown.

In this quick live reaction, Anpanman breaks down the AT&T and AST SpaceMobile announcement of a successful handoff between a terrestrial tower and a satellite. The test was a voice call over LTE, and the handoff happened in milliseconds instead of seconds. Anpanman explains why this matters for direct-to-cell service, how Ericsson and Nokia fit in, and why AST's 3,900 patent-pending claims and bent pipe architecture make a satellite behave like a tower...

AST SpaceMobile ASTS stock at $40: Kook breaks down the launch priority code theory, the Falcon 9 pause, and Viasat's spectrum fight.

Kook opens by re-underwriting the ASTS stock thesis after a brutal week, using AI to dig through filings. He focuses on AST SpaceMobile's spectrum position, including the 2 GHz auctions in Europe, the new Chilean award, and a loose theory that European MNOs could bid for Viasat's L-band through a JV. He also argues that Viasat's spectrum value may be shrinking.

The main thread is launch. Kook explains why he...

AST SpaceMobile earnings are Nov 9, and SpaceX just paused Falcon 9 for 6 weeks. What it means for ASTS and the Bluebird launch rush.

Anpanman discusses the latest AST SpaceMobile news ahead of earnings. He starts with a hedge fund factor analysis that puts ASTS stock down 8% once momentum, growth and low quality earnings factors are stripped out. Then he covers the reported six-week SpaceX Falcon 9 pause tied to the first Starship launch from Florida. He explains why Bluebirds 14 and 16 sit at Astrotech, how year-end launches could get backloaded, and what the Amazon Vulcan launch on...

ASTS stock crashed from $130 to $40. Kook breaks down AST SpaceMobile, SpaceX's spectrum move, and the launch clues that keep him locked in.

Kook opens with a brutal week for ASTS stock, which fell about 70% as SpaceX's apparent purchase of the Grain spectrum shocked generalist investors. He explains the "terror of prices," what he got wrong, why he stays focused on terminal value, and why AST SpaceMobile doesn't owe anyone a flood of press releases while launch contracts, J-LEO, and Golden Dome play out.

From there Kook lays out his...

Starlink eyes 80,000 cell sites and MNOs sell off. Anpanman breaks down what it means for AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) and direct-to-cell.

In this episode, Anpanman reacts to news that SpaceX is exploring a terrestrial network and talking to Crown Castle about roughly 80,000 cell sites. He explains why carriers and the ASTS stock sold off, and why he argues the news makes AST SpaceMobile more strategically important as the satellite counter to Starlink. He also covers spectrum, including C-band and the lack of low band, and why satellite coverage is becoming table stakes for every MNO.<...

AST SpaceMobile ASTS stock sells off with the whole space sector. Anpanman breaks down the macro, launch timing, and Starlink news.

Anpanman discusses a brutal day for ASTS stock, as rates, oil at a 12-year high, Iran headlines, and a violent rotation out of momentum and growth hit every space name. He explains why Rocket Lab, Planet Labs, and the neo-clouds are all down together, and why the drawdown since May looks macro-driven rather than company-specific. He also covers SpaceX earnings, neo-cloud CapEx risk, and the SpaceX lockup expiry.

...

AST SpaceMobile's new PR sets intermittent broadband in 5 markets by end of 2026. Anpanman breaks down what it means for ASTS.

In this episode, Anpanman covers the latest AST SpaceMobile press release and the market backdrop driving the ASTS stock price. He compares ASTS to the NeoCloud names, explains why Rocket Lab trades better right now, and walks through the hedge fund pair trade of long SpaceX against short AT&T and Verizon. He also looks at the Starlink Mobile timeline and the spectrum it can realistically deploy.

The core...

Europe's Big 4 telcos just formed a JV to bid on MSS spectrum in May 2027. What it means for AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) and Starlink.

Anpanman breaks down the joint venture announced by Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefonica and Vodafone to pursue S-band spectrum for advanced direct-to-cell service in Europe. He explains how the 60 MHz currently held by Viasat and EchoStar is likely to be split into three buckets, and why the venture is built around European sovereignty. He also covers why the announcement is a big deal for ASTS stock, with Deutsche Telekom now publicly acknowledged...

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) dipped under $40 on margin calls. Anpanman breaks down the macro, leverage, and why the thesis hasn't changed.

Anpanman walks through a brutal week for ASTS stock and the wider space sector, tying the selloff to a hot CPI print, rising rates, neocloud stress (CoreWeave CDS near 1180), and forced deleveraging. He explains why the space sector looks derated, how margin calls cascade, and why Rocket Lab's Neutron delay hit sentiment across space names.

Anpanman then re-underwrites the AST SpaceMobile thesis: Bluebird 11 unfolded successfully, the strategic backdrop for...

ASTS stock sold off after SpaceX bought spectrum. Kook explains why it may be good news for AST SpaceMobile's direct-to-cell plan.

Kook breaks down a brutal week for ASTS stock, where leveraged traders got hammered by a momentum selloff, a delayed Blue Origin, and confusion around SpaceX. He argues that SpaceX buying low-band spectrum and pivoting to a B2C Starlink mobile strategy removes it as a B2B competitor to AST SpaceMobile. Along the way, Kook covers the State Department's J-LEO announcement with Rakuten, Brazil spectrum, Elon's fight with India, and why data...

SpaceX buys Grain Management spectrum - why Anpanman says it's bullish for AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) and locks in the carriers.

In this episode, Anpanman reacts to the news that SpaceX is acquiring Grain Management's low-band spectrum, alongside a major FCC order released the same day. He explains why the deal looks negative for AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile at first glance, but strengthens the strategic case for AST SpaceMobile. The ASTS stock knee-jerk reaction, the carriers' after-hours selloff and what SpaceX's plan to become a fourth mobile network operator means for the direct-to-cell race...

T-Mobile scrubbed Starlink from its T-Satellite site. AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) news: Canada, the State Dept and Japan's $1B J-LEO.

In this episode, Anpanman breaks down why T-Mobile removing Starlink references from its T-Satellite website right after the carrier joint venture with AT&T and Verizon is such a big strategic signal for AST SpaceMobile. He covers T-Mobile's history with Starlink and spectrum, and why AST's wholesale direct-to-cell model leaves customer acquisition, billing, and spectrum to the carriers.

Anpanman then looks at Canada, where Telus completed integration testing with AST...

AST SpaceMobile's BlueBird 11 came in nominal and batch 3 is in orbit. Kook breaks down the ASTS T-Mobile deal bet and more.

Kook opens by reacting to the news that BlueBird 11 was nominal, walking through the competing theories about whether the satellite was stuck and why the deployment record for AST SpaceMobile stays perfect. He argues the flawless execution reflects a military-grade approach to testing and reliability, and covers the launch of batch 3 (BlueBirds 14, 15 and 16) on another SpaceX flight, with more launches expected soon.

Kook then lays out why he...

AST SpaceMobile ASTS: Anpanman breaks down the AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile telco JV and B. Riley's $85 to $65 downgrade.

Anpanman digs into the newly announced joint venture between AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile and explains why he believes it squarely fits AST SpaceMobile and was formed to counter Starlink. He covers the pooling of scarce low-band spectrum, open standards versus proprietary networks, the regulatory path through the DOJ and FCC, and why direct-to-cell competitors like Amazon and Iridium don't fit the JV's model.

Next, Anpanman reviews the new Chief Commercial...

AST SpaceMobile's Bluebirds 14-16 are shipped and Bluebird 11 unfolded. Anpanman breaks down the ASTS news and launch window.

In this episode, Anpanman covers confirmation that the Bluebird 14, 15 and 16 satellites have shipped, and that the Bluebird 11 phased array unfolded successfully. He explains why the company may have delayed its PR, why it should keep the details of the unfolding private, and why AST SpaceMobile has a perfect record for satellites that reached orbit. Anpanman also looks at the expected Falcon 9 launch timing for this batch of direct-to-cell satellites.

The discussion...

AST SpaceMobile's new 8-K adds change-of-control severance. Anpanman breaks down what it means for ASTS stock and a possible deal.

In this episode, Anpanman digs into the AST SpaceMobile 8-K filed after the close, which sets up double-trigger change-of-control severance for senior executives. He explains how these packages work and why boards adopt them. He also covers why he sees this filing as off-cycle rather than routine housekeeping, and how the Iridium and Rocket Lab timeline offers a real precedent. Along the way he points to the hire of Ozzy Ramos and the Adriana...

AST SpaceMobile's BB11 satellite may be stuck or deployed - Kook digs into TLE data, maxed-out shorts, and AT&T's direct-to-cell push.

Kook returns from being off the grid straight into fresh TLE data on BlueBird 11, weighing whether the satellite's array successfully unfurled, got stuck mid-deployment, or needs to be deorbited. He compares the situation to BW3's 2021 bolt issue, where a stuck deployment was fixed with new software and thermal cycling, and explains why difficulty doesn't mean disaster for AST SpaceMobile.

On the ASTS stock side, Kook breaks...

AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) sentiment is near all-time lows while short interest hits record highs - Anpanman breaks down what's next.

Anpanman opens with the setup: implied volatility near all-time lows, short interest at an all-time high (65-94M shares), and sentiment washed out across Reddit and X. He argues these three ingredients, combined with looming catalysts, create the conditions for a violent rerating in ASTS stock, just like the move from $2 to $39 after the AT&T and Verizon deals.

He then digs into the near-term picture for satellite production...

AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) went strangely quiet at the Paris satellite conference this week - Kook breaks down why, plus the Bluebird 11 mystery.

Kook opens with a candid look at retail sentiment hitting rock bottom, admitting he's been distracted by a personal stablecoin (USDe) investment while ASTS stock stays quiet. He dives deep into the Bluebird 11 satellite mystery, walking through TLE tracking data, mean motion comparisons to BW12 and BW13, and the theories around possible station-keeping testing.

The episode covers the surprisingly muted Paris Air Show appearance from AST SpaceMobile...

AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) rallies post-Fed as 48 Bluebirds sit in production. Anpanman breaks down the real story behind the delays.

In this episode, Anpanman discusses the Fed's quarter-point rate hike and how the resulting relief rally lifted AST SpaceMobile and the entire high-beta space sector, including Rocket Lab, Planet Labs, and Redwire. He explains why negative sentiment toward ASTS stock has spiked in recent weeks and why that negativity mirrors what's happening across nearly every momentum name in the market.

Anpanman walks through AST SpaceMobile's production update, including 48 Bluebird satellites...

AST SpaceMobile just got confirmed for space-based sensing and targeting - Kook breaks down the SDA filing and a $68 vs $210 price target debate.

Kook opens with the weekend chaos around a Spanish analyst named Amerito whose bearish $210-to-$68 DCF on $ASTS stock sparked a firestorm, and walks through why discount rate assumptions and duration risk make academic finance models misleading for a high-growth satellite name like AST SpaceMobile.

The episode digs into the Porsche versus Toyota analogy for premium direct-to-cell pricing, Ron Baron's simple big-picture investing style, and why...

AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) update: Japan files a 136-satellite constellation at the ITU as Europe's big carriers move to counter Starlink.

In this episode, Anpanman breaks down why sovereignty has become the defining theme for AST SpaceMobile and the broader satellite sector. He walks through Japan's MIC filing with the ITU for a 136-satellite 'J-Bluebird' constellation on behalf of the Rakuten and AST SpaceMobile joint venture, filed on September 4th, and explains how it ties into Japan's plans for a golden dome-style, multi-layer defense and communications network.

Anpanman also covers...

AST SpaceMobile's BW11 satellite remains undeployed - Kook explains why, plus Adriana Cisneros just sent a bullish signal on $ASTS stock.

Kook dives into the mystery of Bluebird 11 not yet deploying, citing heightened solar activity and Labor Day staffing levels as the likely explanations, while noting the company's FCC filing confirming the satellite is otherwise nominal. He also highlights AST SpaceMobile director Adriana Cisneros buying ASTS stock as a confidence signal following August's momentum-driven selloff across the space sector.

Kook explores AST SpaceMobile as the satellite industry's true hyperscaler...

Bahrenberg initiates AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) coverage with a Buy rating and $92 price target - here's the full thesis.

In this episode, Bahrenberg walks through the full initiation report on AST SpaceMobile, breaking down why ASTS stock is positioned as the only proven space-based direct-to-cell broadband provider. The discussion covers ASTS's 60+ MNO partnerships covering roughly 3 billion subscribers, its spectrum moat of 45 MHz of L-band and 60 MHz of S-band, and a revenue model projected to scale from $655 million in 2027 to $4.5 billion by 2030.

Bahrenberg also details the long list of near-term catalysts...

AST SpaceMobile hits satellite 48 in production as Bluebird 14 completes - Kook breaks down why $ASTS still has 10-20X upside despite the selloff.

In this week's episode, Kook tackles the brutal sentiment across satellite and space stocks, comparing AST SpaceMobile's chart to Rocket Lab, Redwire, and Planet Labs to argue this is dispersion within a sector selloff, not a bubble bursting. He pushes back on technical analysis-driven bearishness and explains why he remains focused on fundamentals over short-term chart patterns.

Kook covers the latest AST SpaceMobile production update, with...

AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) craters to $58 as Fed rate fears crush high-beta stocks.

New Antonov delivery hints at a Q4 production surge.

Anpanman breaks down a brutal day for the market after Fed's Worsh turned hawkish, sparking September rate hike fears that hammered high-beta names across the board. AST SpaceMobile stock got caught in the sector-wide selloff alongside crypto, quantum, and neo-cloud names, even as SpaceX held up better thanks to its growing neo-cloud leasing revenue with Google and Anthropic.

On the fundamentals side, Anpanman digs into why...

AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) news: White House unveils new space policy, SpaceX's MNO strategy backfires, and Grain spectrum drama heats up.

Kook breaks down the White House's new National Space Transportation Policy signed on August 20th, framing it as a generational tailwind for AST SpaceMobile and the broader satellite direct-to-cell industry, drawing parallels to past government-driven capital cycles like the housing boom and China's commodity supercycle.

Kook then unpacks insider commentary from a SpaceX expert call revealing that SpaceX systemically dismissed ASTS as a competitor, and explains how SpaceX's aggressive...

AT&T's COO just gave AST SpaceMobile a massive public endorsement over Grain Management's 800MHz spectrum test. Here's why it matters.

Anpanman breaks down AT&T COO Jeff McElfresh's LinkedIn post congratulating AST SpaceMobile on receiving an FCC Special Temporary Authority to test Grain Management's 800MHz spectrum for satellite direct-to-cell service. Anpanman explains why the timing and wording of the post, published before the Bloomberg article on Grain's spectrum sale, ranks among the most bullish signals for ASTS stock in recent memory.

The discussion covers how Grain Management's 800MHz...

Grain Management's $6 billion spectrum sale has AST SpaceMobile and SpaceX both in the mix - here's what's really happening.

Anpanman breaks down the Bloomberg report claiming SpaceX and AST SpaceMobile are both circling Grain Management's 800MHz low-band spectrum, a swath valued at roughly $6 billion. He walks through the FCC-mandated timeline Grain must follow after its spectrum swap with T-Mobile, including the November 5th deadline to select a direct-to-cell partner or face building out an expensive terrestrial network instead.

The episode digs into how a deal could actually be structured...

AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) stock dipped near $64 before rebounding this week.

Anpanman explains why a T-Mobile deal could be the next major catalyst.

Anpanman opens this space by addressing the recent AST SpaceMobile stock volatility, noting ASTS has essentially chopped between $53 and $73 since June despite continued execution. He compares the muted reaction to Moderna's 177% single-day rally, arguing ASTS has pulled off similarly explosive moves before, like the Verizon-driven run from $5 to $39.

He dives into why he's confident in an eventual T-Mobile agreement, pointing to FCC filings referencing agreements...

AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) update: Chris Ambar joins T-Mobile, FCC grants Grain 800MHz test authority, plus a major new strategic hire.

Anpanman opens with a real-world tale of losing cell coverage entirely during a family trip, using it to frame why AST SpaceMobile's direct-to-cell satellite mission matters. He then breaks down two huge news items from last week: former AT&T and AST board member Chris Ambar officially joining T-Mobile as Chief Enterprise Officer, and the FCC granting AST SpaceMobile a Special Temporary Authority to test on Grain Management's nationwide 800MHz spectrum, a move tied...

AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) confirms J-LEO, lands new government contracts, and reveals its AI edge compute roadmap this week.

Kook breaks down AST SpaceMobile's latest earnings call, covering the post-earnings vol crush, the wild market psychology of a stock that swung from $37 to $70, and confirmation of the J-LEO deal - a billion-dollar non-dilutive subsidy structure for Japanese-flagged satellites within the ASTS constellation.

The episode dives into new US government contracts worth over $100 million, a multi-billion dollar recurring radar and GPS opportunity, and strong signals that Deutsche Telekom's T-Mobile is nearing...

AST SpaceMobile's Q2 call revealed a $1.3B backlog, 100 MHz of US spectrum, and a shocking Wall Street hire.

In this episode, Anpanman breaks down AST SpaceMobile's Q2 earnings call and explains why the market's negative reaction misses the real story. He opens with the surprise hire of Ozzy Ramos, a longtime vice chair of investment banking at UBS and Barclays, calling it a huge vote of confidence in ASTS stock and a signal of major strategic moves ahead.

Anpanman digs into the spectrum disclosures, including C-band capability built into...

AST SpaceMobile Q2 2026 Earnings Call

00:00 Introduction and Safe Harbor

01:57 Abel Avellan's Opening Remarks

03:30 Spectrum Strategy and Tunable Bands

05:37 Rakuten J-LEO Award in Japan

06:26 60+ MNO Partners and 3B Subscribers

07:27 Bluebird Satellite Manufacturing Update

08:04 ASIC Chip Reaches Full Production

08:40 Texas Manufacturing Expansion

10:59 $1.3B Revenue Backlog Revealed

11:32 Scott Wisniewski on Commercialization

13:56 US Government Contracts and Golden Dome

15:10 Expanding TAM: Radar, IoT, AI Edge Compute

19:31 Q2 Revenue and 2026 Guidance

20:50 Andy Johnson's Financial...

AST SpaceMobile earnings hit today as Starlink Mobile shakes up the MNO landscape.

Anpanman explains why $ASTS uptake could go from 5% to 100%.

In this episode, Anpanman previews AST SpaceMobile's earnings release and unpacks the weekend's biggest storyline: Elon Musk's claims that Starlink Mobile could capture up to 50% of global internet traffic. Anpanman argues this competitive pressure will push mobile network operators like AT&T, Verizon, and eventually T-Mobile to bake AST SpaceMobile's direct-to-cell satellite service into every plan, pushing ASTS stock uptake far beyond the old 5-10% estimates. The episode also covers...

Three more Blue Bird satellites just reached orbit, and $ASTS now covers 80% of Europe's mobile subscribers.

Kook breaks down last week's successful launch and the growing confidence that AST SpaceMobile's launch cadence, not satellite production, is now the real story. He digs into a Meta working session hint, the near-final J-LEO deal with Rakuten in Japan, a fresh spectrum license, and a buried press release revealing integration testing with Deutsche Telekom, the 51% owner of T-Mobile. Kook also covers the FCC's push to clear the path for direct-to-cell, SpaceX's shaky terrestrial phone ambitions after its...