Ben's Market Chat - Insights and Interviews
Empower everyone to be able to invest or ask their financial advisors the right questions about their investment. We look at the world through a structural growth lens. We focus on sectors that are not dependent on the vagaries of the economic cycle but rather on long term trends helping to shape financial markets. We look at companies in sectors that cater to a growing global population, to demographics trends and to automation amongst many.Our story emanates from running large family office assets across multiple sectors and types of investments both public and private. We aim to highlight key s...
Israel's Tech Sector Defies Expectations
Few places in the world produce technology at the rate Israel does. A country of fewer than ten million people has become one of the most important sources of innovation in cybersecurity, software, fintech and beyond. The harder question for investors is how to find the real winners in that ecosystem, and how to pay a sensible price for them.
My guest this week has spent his career on that problem. Gilad Shany has worked across early-stage and scale-up technology investing, and across both public and private markets, a combination that is rarer than it should be.<...
Musing about Meta's Muse
US inflation continues unabated, with higher fuel costs now feeding through into logistics. CPI is running at 3.7%, with energy costs up 5.3% on the back of oil rising more than 9% on the month. This week we look at whether US manufacturing PMIs can sustain the recent momentum in industry, and in the UK, we get the latest unemployment and inflation prints.
On rates, Warsh’s first October decision comes with a twist. Once rates start moving in one direction they normally keep going, but not this month (we think!). We also look at the UK’s plans for an e...
Navigating the Tech Secondaries Market with Denis Blank
Head to https://www.youtube.com/@bensmarketchat for the full interview
The landscape of late-stage technology investing is undergoing a fundamental shift. As high-flying "unicorns" opt to stay private longer, resisting traditional public listings, the secondaries market has transformed from a liquidity alternative into a primary destination for sophisticated institutional capital. Navigating this complex, highly concentrated environment requires a rare combination of macroeconomic foresight and deep private market expertise.Â
Few investors are better positioned to decode these market dynamics than Denis Blank , the Chief Investment Officer of L...
A Deep Dive into Oil
The Fed raised rates after all last week. Our expectation of political expediency and therefore a hold pose was set aside by a more pragmatic FOMC fearing persistent and non transitory inflation in the system.
The 10 year US Treasury blew through 5% and the yield curve steepened. Ie the long end rose faster than the short. The implication is a recession or at least an economic slowdown.
Whilst Brent crude declined back below $100 per barrel last night, thanks to expectations of resolutions to be agreed at this week’s UN summit in...
Set Sail for Safe Harbour
The ECB raised rates last week to 2.5% despite slowing growth citing rising inflation as the key driver for the decision. Lower growth and higher inflation smells of deflation, the worst possible economic outcome!
Energy prices have risen 14.3% in the Eurozone this year pushing the CPI to 3.3% for August. This is lower than the 3.4% headline number print in the US putting intense pressure and focus on the Fed for this Wednesday’s FOMC decision on rates.
Wil they? Won’t they – Investors have been chasing their tails for the last month trying to forecast direction of travel...
A Passive/Aggressive Approach to Investing
In a US economy that is showing significant signs of deceleration, an acceleration in employment in last week’s job release was a comforting factoid. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1% near full-employment levels. The Fed will most likely treat this latest economic signal as neutral when deciding on action for the September rate announcement.
However, there will be dissenting voices in the Fed. Friday sees the release of August CPI in the US. Consensus is for an unchanged 3.4% headline number. This is way higher than the Fed’s long-term target of 2%. But even with that in mind...
Ben's Market Insights - NVIDIA Unleashed
Warsh was exceptionally hawkish at the Jackson Hole symposium last week suggesting that the “Fed still has work to do”. Still, we don’t believe that the FOMC will raise in Sept. There are supporting economic factors including slowing GDP & slowing employment but more likely, so close to the mid-terms, it’s unlikely that the Fed will want to appear to be choosing sides. If a raise were to occur, the timing is would be year-end or Q1 '27. Whilst most economists assume the next move is a hike, the currency markets don’t appear to be supporting this given the D...
MAG7 Earnings & Valuation Momentum
This week will see Kevin Warsh's 1st Jackson Hole meeting as Chairman of the Fed and expect little drama. No change in rates is the most likely outcome despite investors goading the Fed via the 10 year UST market to raise rates. The 10 year is already at 4.74% and set to move higher setting a bearish outlook near term for risk assets.Â
Median Brent Crude spot came from $107 per barrel in May down to $85 in June and has spiked back up again to between $90-95 per barrel in August. With no signs of tensions easing in the Middle East, t...
