MPC Markets Morning Call

Stocks were weighed down Friday night by oil pushing toward 2026 highs (highest Brent/WTI settlement since late April), not by chips. Energy names rallied while the broader market stayed soft. Chips bounced and cybersecurity stocks lifted on the WordPress/PHP vulnerability.

This week brings Australian CPI, hyperscaler earnings (Google, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon), US Q3 GDP and core PCE, Fed/ECB/BoJ meetings, the UK budget, Israel elections and US midterms. With that many moving parts, the next couple of days are not the time to pile on risk.

China stays in bear-market territory...

Nasdaq had its worst day since June as the AI and chip trade was aggressively unwound. Equal-weight S&P rose while the headline index fell, highlighting how concentrated the damage was.

Mark Gardner covers:

SpaceX lit up the AI trade overnight while Tesla and Meta both beat after the bell. Chips bounced hard (Supermicro +9.5%, Nvidia and the rest green), Tesla free cash flow came in positive $1.53bn against a cash-burn forecast, and Meta’s Q4 guide beat consensus. AT&T sold off despite beating because SpaceX is positioning to be the phone company. Lam Research and Netflix disappointed after hours.

Fed hike odds for the next meeting are down around 15%. UK inflation jumped to 3.5%. Oil remains above $100. Global indexes eked out gains, Nasdaq the biggest winner as the AI trade recovered fr...

Oil spiked then faded and the Dow pushed higher overnight as US earnings did the heavy lifting. Mark Gardner covers the overnight session and the ASX open.

Brent topped US$110 intraday on fresh Hormuz tanker attacks before settling ~1% lower. US pending home sales fell 7.3% — the worst since 2001. On earnings: GE sold off on a soft outlook with money rotating into healthcare and financials; Netflix –5%, Supermicro +12%, Intuitive Surgical –11%, Capital One +5%, with United and GM lower. SpaceX posted US$14.6bn revenue (up 161%) on AI and Starlink. Meta and Tesla report tomorrow. Chinese AI names look like value...

Chips snapped an eight-day slide overnight, with Amazon leading tech higher (+5%) after Morgan Stanley tagged it a top earnings-season pick and Intel bouncing on a JP Morgan upgrade. CoreWeave found defenders despite debt worries, the banks lagged, and Tesla rose as Elon pledged a SpaceX share to every child in America.

Phil and Mark also cover the worst start to a US earnings season since 2024 (Meta, Tesla and Lam Research all report this week), a quiet-but-green session across the indices, a busy M&A Tuesday, private equity’s steady shrinking of the ASX, and th...

Oil tops US$100 and Brent clears US$110 as the AI sell-off rolls on — chips have now fallen for eight straight days, their longest losing run since 2008, shedding more market cap than the entire ASX 200. Mark and Phil cover the AI unwind (Broadcom, Micron, AMD, Intel, Lam Research, Applied Materials, Oracle, and CoreWeave down ~12% Friday), why credit default swaps on AI debt are suddenly in focus, and the difference between secured, unsecured and convertible debt across the big names.

Also today: bond yields falling on a safe-haven bid, the Nasdaq 100’s worst week in 18 months, the ASX benefiting from...

The rally broadens as investors abandon chip stocks for a seventh straight session. Mark and Friday Phil cover a session that was green everywhere except semis — Nvidia -1.8%, Dell down ~22% in three days — while gold and silver miners, lithium, healthcare and software led the “great rotation” higher.

Also in today’s call: a hot US PPI print (+1.3% m/m vs +0.6% expected, ~6.3% y/y, hottest since March); the CoreWeave credit scare debunked (the 16% rate only applies to unsecured finance — weighted-average is ~8.3% — and Jensen Huang says rates are easing); why banks marketing Oracle CDS is worth watching; WiseTech +4–5% as Richard White is...

Tech stocks took an absolute beating overnight — the SOX fell 4.3%, now 20% off its peak and down for a sixth straight day, with every data-centre name (Nvidia, Intel, AMD, Oracle, Dell) sold off.

Mark Gardner covers a shaky start to US earnings season (Bank of America down ~6% on a surprise impairment, a soft JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley off 2.75%), the defensive rotation into healthcare, Chevron and Exxon at 52-week highs, MPC's exit from its NeoCloud calls, CoreWeave's debt squeeze, a hotter-than-expected CPI pushing rates back up, the oil and diesel story, and why hyperscaler earnings over the ne...

Fed’s Williams signals one more hike then done — bond yields dropped 10bps but stocks still slid. We break down: Micron’s 3.6% drop on China’s CXMT chip news (and why it’s an overreaction), JP Morgan’s first earnings miss since 2023 while Goldman crushed it, the lithium bloodbath (PLS -8.6% in a day, -21% in three sessions), growing skepticism around the data center trade after AirTrunk and Firmus, and the RBA hinting at holding rates. Plus US CPI tonight and what to watch from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley.

Try Mosaic free through year...

A quiet night with US bonds shut for Columbus Day. Mark Gardner runs through chip stocks sliding, Brent up about 2% on reports of a tanker hit in Hormuz, Meta's new Muse AI model, upgrades for Salesforce and eBay, and Starbucks ruling out Chipotle.

Locally: Maas down 15% after Firmus pulled its listing, uranium, lithium and rare earths getting belted, plus RBA minutes, the NAB survey and the Telstra AGM today. Tonight, US bank earnings kick off, with CPI and PPI later in the week.

US earnings calendar: mpcinvest.co/earnings-usa<...

Stocks Shrug off Oil and Bonds into 1st Week of Earnings

Wall Street finished Friday within striking distance of all-time highs as investors brace for Q3 bank earnings this week. The S&P 500 rose 0.59%, the Dow gained 0.83% and the Nasdaq added 0.64% — all three logging weekly gains.

Analysts expect roughly 31% year-on-year earnings growth with AI and energy driving two-thirds of the increase. Banks are expected to unveil a quarterly stock-trading haul of nearly US$19 billion — JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup all report this week.

In today’s call: gold and precio...

US semiconductor stocks were hammered after an FT report pegged OpenAI’s annualised revenue at ~$50 billion, roughly $20 billion below prior estimates. The SOX dropped 3.4%, Brent crude surged 4% past $104 on Strait of Hormuz attacks and Gulf Coast hurricane shut-ins, and Treasuries rallied with the 10-year yield falling 6 bp to 5.22%. ASX 200 futures point to a mildly positive open at 8,715 amid Firmus IPO uncertainty and weak Fortescue shipments.

Key Takeaways:

Wall Street snapped a four-session win streak as 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels since 2002. Fed minutes revealed all 19 officials backed September's rate hike, with most signalling another by year-end. Brent crude settled near US$100 amid ongoing Hormuz tensions, France's bond crisis deepened with the Franco-German spread at 141bp, and the AI bubble debate intensified. Plus chart updates on Telix, ProMedicus and New Hope, and a preview of US earnings season starting next week.

Wall Street surged to all-time highs overnight — the S&P 500 closed at a record 7,820.85 and the Nasdaq hit 27,599.79 as six of the Magnificent Seven advanced on renewed AI and chip stock enthusiasm. G7 nations agreed to release 100 million barrels of emergency reserves, Constellation Energy jumped 12% on a nuclear deal with Google, and uranium surged 4%. Gold, silver and copper rallied while the Aussie dollar ticked higher. The ASX is set to open flat as the RBA flagged household AI stock exposure as a potential vulnerability. Plus — the US earnings calendar for October is live on Mosaic.

📈...

The Nasdaq closed at a record high overnight — up 1.05% to 27,477 — even as US 10-year yields hit 5.35%, their highest since 2002. With European bonds under pressure, private credit gating redemptions, and inflation eroding cash, big tech is starting to look like the only safe haven left. We break down BMO's call for 6% on the 30-year, Aramco's warning that global oil stocks are "scarily thin," the divisive Firmus IPO opening on the ASX today, and why coal keeps quietly climbing. Plus a quick look at Russia's plague quarantine in Siberia.

Topics: Nasdaq record, US bond yields at 2002 highs, French bond cont...

The US 10-year yield hit 5.34%, the highest since 2002, before reversing after Fed Vice Chair Jefferson signalled patience on further hikes. The S&P 500 recovered to close up 0.2% but the ASX 200 bore the brunt, falling 2.0% to its lowest since June. Brent crude surged 4.3% on a third US carrier deployment to the Middle East, China suspending fuel exports, and Iran warning of a "forceful response." Micron's blowout guidance lifted chips but Broadcom's $42B deal to lease AI chips to Anthropic raised circular-finance concerns. Russia warned it would use its "entire arsenal including nuclear weapons" to defend Kaliningrad. We look at ASX...

Cooling US inflation data sparked a morning rally, but Wall Street gave it all back in a brutal final-hour selloff. The Dow dropped 0.86%, the S&P 500 lost 0.25%, and bond yields hit multi-decade highs with the 30-year at 5.638%.

Micron smashed earnings — revenue up 256% year-on-year — but the flat after-hours reaction has Mark questioning AI sentiment heading into Q4. The team draws parallels to Cisco's dotcom crash and flags caution around high-profile AI IPOs. Phil runs technical updates on PMA and New Hope, and the episode wraps with what to watch for the ASX open with SPI futu...

Wall Street finished lower as the US 10-year yield touched 5.27% — a fresh 19-year high — and Brent crude held above US$105 on Iran–Strait of Hormuz tensions. Gold and silver were smashed 3–5% as surging real yields crushed non-yielding assets.

In this episode, Mark and Phil cover:

- US 10-year at 5.27% and 30-year through 5.50% — hyperscaler debt now competing with Treasuries

- Brent crude holds above US$105; Bloomberg's head macro analyst warns Iran will escalate into the midterms

- Nvidia up 1.6% on a record US$150B buyback authorisation increase<...

Stocks Grind Higher as Geopolitics Weighs | 28 September 2026 Wall Street rebounded Friday — Dow +0.93%, S&P 500 +0.51%, Nasdaq +0.48% — led by Microsoft's Copilot refresh and easing oil as Iran proposed a seven-day Hormuz reopening. But Trump rejected the deal on Saturday, putting the war premium back in play. The US 10-year yield closed at 5.18% (hit 5.23% intraday) with the 30-year topping 5.50% for the first time since 2004. The MOVE bond-volatility index sits at 105 vs a decade average of 80 — stress levels remain elevated. In Australia, the ASX 200 closed at 8,665 — its lowest since June — with SPI futures pointing flat at 8,720. The RBA board begins deliberations today ahead of Tuesday's...

US equities finished a choppy session little changed on Thursday, with the S&P 500 easing 0.02% to 7,704.13, the Dow down 0.3% to 51,349.98 and the Nasdaq up a marginal 0.01% to 26,939.37, as a bond-market rout and a fresh spike in oil offset any comfort from the Trump–Xi summit in Washington. The US 10-year Treasury yield jumped roughly 9bp to 5.20–5.21%, its highest since July 2007, after NY Fed President John Williams said another hike by year-end was "reasonable." Brent crude rose more than 3% to settle near $106.60 after Houthi missile strikes on Saudi Arabia, even as US–Iran negotiators explored a phased Hormuz deal. Bond manage...

US 10-Year Yield Smashes to Record Highs — Bond Market Sends a Warning

Jonathan Tacadena hosts today's Morning Call as the bond market delivers the story of the day: the US 10-year yield rocketed from ~4.95% to 5.11% overnight, a fresh record high and one of the sharpest moves in recent memory. Equities were mostly lower but surprisingly muted given the scale of the bond sell-off — Dow -350pts, S&P -0.75%, Nasdaq -1%, Russell 2000 hit hardest at -1.77%. Jonathan breaks down the Nasdaq/S&P divergence, the carry-trade risks behind rising yields, a strengthening US Dollar Index, commodities (crude and...

MPC Markets Morning Call — 23rd September 2026: Copper Smashes Record Highs as NASDAQ Grinds to New Peaks

Jonathan Tacadena and Finn Judell run the show today while Mark and Phil are in Brisbane, running through overnight markets and the levels to watch before the ASX open.

In this episode:

AI optimism is back with a bang. The Nasdaq closed at its first record high since June as Meta's new AI agent, Muse, sent the stock up more than 11% and dragged chip names like Intel and Arm along for the ride — even as Nvidia lagged. Mark and Phil unpack why "inference" chips are having their moment, run through IDP Education, Telix and the ASX's flattest possible gain, and preview what to watch today: RBA Governor Michele Bullock at 1:10pm AEST, Fed speakers overnight, and Thursday's Trump–Xi summit in Washington.

General information only, not personal financial advice. MPC...

Triple Witching Keeps Stocks Mixed; Weekend Riyadh Strikes See Oil Up

Monday 21st September 2026

$7 trillion in options expired on Friday's triple-witching session — one of the largest on record — keeping US indices range-bound. S&P 500 +0.17%, Nasdaq +0.40%, Dow -0.18%. Semiconductors were the sole sector winner. The US 10-year yield climbed back to 5.00%.

Over the weekend, Houthi strikes hit Riyadh with flames near King Khalid Airport fuel storage. Iran declared Hormuz stays closed until its terms are met — oil opened higher on Monday. Fed's Kashkari said inflation is "st...

Wall Street bounced back overnight led by chip stocks and Nvidia ahead of quad witching expiry, but the broader market had little to offer. The Dow is still down 1.5% for the week, and we can't quite work out what drove the rally.

Today we cover the weekly wrap across US indices, listener-requested chart of the day on AYA (Atreia) and the ASX biotech space, a commodities bounce with lithium, uranium, silver and gold all jumping, and crude holding above US$102 WTI.

Day ahead: Bank of Japan rate decision expected at +25bp, Governor Bullock before the...

The Fed just hiked for the first time since 2023 — 25bp to 3.75%–4.00%, unanimous — and Chair Kevin Warsh warned inflation is "too high and has been for too long." Sixteen of eighteen policymakers see at least one more hike this year, and the dot plot doesn't project 2% inflation until 2029.

Wall Street reversed hard during the presser: Dow –1.21%, S&P 500 –0.44%, Nasdaq barely flat. Oil pulled back sharply on Saudi workaround cargoes via Oman. The 10-year yield held above 5% and the curve flattened dramatically.

We break down why yield spikes historically precede Nasdaq slumps, the equity risk premium warning, ASX financ...

The 10-year yield cracked 5.04% (highest since 2007), Brent surged past $108, and Wall Street fell again ahead of the Fed's first hike in three years. Mark and Kai cover the yield breakout and why the calm after it is unnerving, the oil supply crunch from Saudi Arabia to Libya, Jensen Huang's tone-deaf "no laws needed" push, Bitcoin's sell-off on the Clarity Act block, plus ASX stock spotlights on Telix Pharmaceuticals (FDA approval, technicals flipping green) and New Hope (dividend surprise, coal quietly outperforming). Fed decision 4am AEST Thursday.

Wall Street recovered from sharp early losses but still finished red as the PHLX chip index plunged 5.9% on AI safety fears while software names rallied. The 10-year yield briefly breached 5%, crude holds above $101 on Saudi pipeline shutdowns, and a Fed rate hike is now 92% priced for Wednesday. Mark and Phil break down the chip-to-software rotation, Telix's FDA win on the ASX, Chevron and ConocoPhillips at 52-week highs, and why "pandemonium" awaits if the Fed doesn't hike.

Key topics: semiconductor selloff, AI governance, software rotation, crude oil supply disruption, 10-year yield at 5%, Fed rate hike outlook, ASX Telix...

Triple Threat: Hike Locked, Pipeline Down, AI Paused — Monday 14 September 2026

Three weekend shocks hit at once. The Fed hike is 87% locked after hot CPI, Saudi Arabia shut the east-west pipeline as Hormuz attacks worsen, and the biggest names in AI — Dario Amodei, Elon Musk and Sam Altman — have all called for slowing down. US 10Y yields nearly breached 5%, diesel hit a record $6.20/gal, and consumer sentiment crashed. Was Friday's rally a head fake? We break it all down.

Subscribe at mpcmarkets.com.au for the free daily Morning Call newsletter.

⚠️ General information only, not person...

Higher Oil, Inflation & Yields Sink Stocks — Four straight sessions of losses on Wall Street as WTI crude tops $103, August PPI runs hot at 5.4% Y/Y, and the ECB hikes rates to 2.5%. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.96% with Fed rate hike odds now at 73% ahead of next week's FOMC. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Oracle rallies 6.6% after hours on a Q1 beat. ASX 200 futures point to another weak open after yesterday's 1.2% drop. Plus: Bessent's "I am the house now" moment, Trump's $1.2 trillion dividend proposal, and why every major index except the Nikkei is flashing sell signals on the te...

Oil tops $100 as Middle East war escalates | Treasury buyback disappoints | Apple unveils $1,999 foldable iPhone

Brent crude surges above $101 after U.S. strikes destroy five Iranian oil tankers and Tehran retaliates with missile attacks on a Jordanian base and commercial vessels. The oil shock sends the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.85% — its highest since November 2023 — while the Treasury Department's $6 billion buyback falls short of the $10 billion the market expected. The S&P 500 drops 0.5%, the Dow sheds 0.8%, and energy is the only sector in the green. Apple unveils the iPhone Duo, its first foldable smartphone at $1,999, under new CEO John Tern...

Stocks cop a beating as war, oil and higher rates converge. Mark Gardner unpacks a rough overnight session — declining stocks outnumbered advancers 2.5-to-1 post-Labor Day.

Houthi strikes hit Saudi's Jizan refinery, reported explosions near Kharg Island, and Hormuz flows are down roughly half from pre-war levels. Brent is nearing $100/bbl with European diesel approaching $200. GPT-6 Astra hammered software names while semis rallied. Intel jumped 9%. Apple's foldable iPhone lands Wednesday at a $2,200 price tag. Rate hike odds past 60% ahead of CPI/PPI this week. Copper hit a record $14,728/ton at the LME. Plus Bessent's "Operation Tw...

Stocks Drift as Oil Approached $100… Again

A short one with US markets closed for Labor Day. Brent crude is pushing toward $100/bbl and diesel has hit another record — 90% above pre-war levels, feeding directly into inflation across logistics, transport and food. WTI jumped 10% last week. Copper hit an all-time high. Fed hike odds are at 60% for September 16, the ECB hikes Thursday, and the BOJ is a 75% chance two days later. CPI this week is the big one. Caution warranted.

Stocks closed lower on Friday after August nonfarm payrolls smashed expectations at 162,000 — nearly triple consensus — pushing Fed rate hike odds above 60%. Over the weekend, the US–Iran tanker war escalated in the Strait of Hormuz as Washington destroyed three Iranian crude carriers. Mark and Phil break down the jobs data, what it means for the September 16 FOMC meeting, why next Friday's CPI is the decider, and what to expect for the ASX this week with oil surging and US markets closed for Labor Day.

Wall Street surged more than 1% overnight after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he is inclined to hold rates steady later this month if inflation data continues to cool, slashing the probability of a September rate hike from near 70% to a coin flip. The S&P 500 climbed 1.1% to 7,747.71 for its best day in a month, bond yields retreated from multi-year highs, and the yen soared 2% on rising Bank of Japan rate hike expectations. ASX 200 futures are pointing 25 points higher to 9,037 as the Australian dollar hit a fresh four-month high at US72.08¢.

Stocks break a three-day losing streak as Dell surges 16% on record AI server demand and Nvidia gains 3.2% on Hugging Face acquisition talks. Broadcom disappoints after hours. The Japanese yen jumps nearly 1% as BOJ hawks signal outsized rate hikes — Japan's 10-year yield breaks above 3% for the first time in decades, raising carry trade unwind fears. Brent holds near $90 on US-Iran tensions. ADP payrolls soft at 38k vs 47k consensus ahead of Friday's non-farm payrolls. September seasonality weakness looms — we discuss positioning ahead of the expected November midterm uplift.

MPC Morning Call — 2 September | Oil Spike, September Seasonality & the Stagflation QuestionJonathan Tacadena and Phil step in to run the Morning Call with Mark Gardner on Father's Day duties.Spring kicks off with a risk-off tone across global markets after an overnight oil price spike driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East. The Dow dropped around 400 points, most of the Mag 7 finished in the red, and bond yields surged on renewed inflation fears.In this episode:— Why September is historically the worst-performing month for the S&P 500 (and what that means heading into this one)— Oil's overnight spike, the Iran–U...

Wall Street edged lower in quiet Labor Day eve trade as US–Iran strikes resumed around the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil up ~3.5% and bond yields to multi-year highs globally. Markets now price a 64% chance of a September Fed rate hike after Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech. Energy and cybersecurity names held up but the broader tape was red. We cover the oil breakout setup, global bond selloff, what to watch on the ASX today, and the big data week ahead — Aussie GDP Wednesday, US payrolls Friday. Plus: our latest Fixed Coupon Note (Northern Star, Fortescue, Harvey Norman) closes in 2...

Fed Chair Warsh rattled markets with a hawkish Jackson Hole debut, sending two-year yields surging 12 basis points and rate-hike odds above 50% for September. The S&P 500 fell 0.25%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.52%, and the Russell slipped 1.4% as chip stocks led the sell-off — Nvidia down 4.5% despite a blowout quarter.

Mark and Philip cover Warsh's "firm and fixed" stance on the 2% target and whether the Fed will actually follow through, the gold and silver sell-off as the Debasement Trade unwinds, the U.S. strike on Iranian launchers at Larak Island with Hormuz still closed, and what it all means for the AS...

Nvidia delivered a blockbuster — $92B in quarterly revenue (+106% Y/Y) and 70% forward growth guidance — adding $440B in market cap and carrying Wall Street higher while every other sector fell. Salesforce surged 23% on its Anthropic "Claudeforce" partnership and CrowdStrike jumped 20%, giving the software ETF its best day since April 2025. But the gap between U.S. and Aussie tech is now 40% wide.

Meanwhile, core PCE inflation held at 3.3% — well above target — keeping rate hike talk alive ahead of Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole keynote. Oil climbed 2% as Iran diplomacy stalled, gold held above $4,600, and Bitcoin reclaimed $80,000.

On the ASX...