CropGPT - Coffee
36 Episodes
CropGPT - Coffee - Week 14
#35
Last Wednesday at 12:36 PM
Global Coffee Market Weekly Summary
The global coffee market is contending with an emerging oversupply dynamic, as record production forecasts from Brazil and continued export strength from Vietnam push inventory levels higher against a backdrop of only gradually rising demand.Brazil's 2026/27 season production forecast has reached 75,900,000 bags, a 15.5% year-on-year increase, with Arabica output alone projected to rise 23.2%. Despite this exceptional production outlook, Brazilian export volumes in February declined 27% year-on-year to 2,300,000 bags, a result of a stronger Brazilian real and reduced shipment activity. This points to a temporary tightening in Brazilian coffee availability on international markets rather than any...CropGPT - Coffee - Week 12
#34
03/27/2026
This episode examines a global coffee market.
Vietnam is a central focus, where domestic coffee prices in the Central Highlands have risen by 400 to 500 dong per kilogram, lifting farm gate prices to roughly 91,500 to 92,700 dong per kilogram. The increase reflects stronger buying interest and expectations of tighter nearby supply as inventories from the previous harvest continue to decline. Firm robusta futures in London are reinforcing this strength, suggesting that supply concerns in the physical market remain a key source of support.The episode also highlights strong export momentum. Coffee exports in January and February 2026 were up 14 percent year...CropGPT - Coffee - Week 50
#33
12/15/2025
This episode highlights current developments and market forecasts in the global coffee sector.
In Brazil, coffee production forecasts for 2025 show notable upward revisions. Conab increased its estimate by 2.4 percent to 56.54 million bags, while Stonex projects a much larger output of 70.7 million bags, driven by a 29 percent rise in Arabica production, now expected at 47.2 million bags. Despite these gains, Brazil’s November green coffee exports dropped by 27 percent year over year, totaling 3.3 million bags. Severe dryness in key areas like Minas Gerais poses a threat to Arabica crop development and flowering.Vietnam’s coffee sector continues its strong performance, with...CropGPT - Coffee - Week 49
#32
12/08/2025
This episode covers the latest developments in the global coffee market.
Vietnam continues to dominate the robusta market, with the 2025 harvest projected at 1.76 million tons, a 10% year-over-year increase and the highest output in four years. Favorable weather conditions supported this growth, and with only 10% of the harvest completed, expectations are high for further supply increases. Coffee exports for the first eleven months rose by 13.4%, reaching $7.88 billion, reinforcing Vietnam’s strong market position and contributing to persistent downward price pressures.Brazil presents a mixed outlook. While 2026–27 projections forecast a 29% year-over-year increase in total coffee production to 70.7 million bags, current seas...CropGPT - Coffee - Week 48
#31
12/01/2025
This week’s coffee market report.
Brazil is forecast to significantly increase coffee production for the 2026–2027 season, reaching an estimated 70.7 million bags, a 29 percent rise from the previous year. This is largely driven by favorable weather and a projected Arabica yield of 47.2 million bags. However, Brazil’s national supply company has slightly revised its 2025 Arabica forecast downward by 4.9 percent, with total production now expected at 55.2 million bags. The recent lifting of a 40 percent U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee exports could boost trade, although 2025 export volumes have dropped 20.3 percent compared to 2024. Despite this, elevated international prices are helping sustai...CropGPT - Coffee - Week 47
#30
11/24/2025
This episode covers key shifts in the global coffee market.
In Brazil, Arabica futures found support amid low inventory levels and a 40 percent U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee, which caused a 52 percent year-over-year decline in exports to the United States from August to October. This short-term scarcity is supporting speculative price movements. However, Stonex projects Brazil’s 2026–2027 crop will reach 70.7 million bags, a 29 percent increase, fueled by favorable weather in key growing regions like Minas Gerais. This expected supply growth may exert downward pressure on prices moving forward.Vietnam’s coffee sector continues to expand, with Robusta export...CropGPT - Coffee - Week 46
#29
11/17/2025
This episode offers a thorough overview of the global coffee market as of November 16, 2025.
In Brazil, the world’s top coffee producer, adverse weather associated with La Niña has led CONAB to revise the 2025 Arabica crop downward by 4.9 percent to 35.2 million bags. Despite this setback, a strong rebound is forecast, with Stonex projecting total output to rise by 29 percent to 70.7 million bags in the next harvest, of which 47.2 million are expected from Arabica varieties. Potential tariff reductions in the United States could influence Brazilian export flows and reshape trade dynamics, particularly since tariffs have previously supported U.S...CropGPT - Coffee - Week 45
#28
11/10/2025
This episode outlines key developments in the global coffee market as of November 9, 2025.
Brazil’s Arabica coffee output faces mounting pressure due to adverse weather conditions. In Minas Gerais, the top Arabica-producing region, rainfall in October reached only 33.4 millimeters, about 75% of the historical average, following an even drier period earlier in the season. This shortfall threatens the 2026-2027 crop, as insufficient rainfall disrupts flowering and fruit set. The likelihood of a La Niña event, now elevated by NOAA forecasts, could further intensify the dry conditions. As a result, Brazil’s national food supply agency has revised its 2025 Arabi...CropGPT - Coffee - Week 44
#27
11/03/2025
This episode examines key developments in the global coffee market.
In Brazil, Arabica production has declined by 11.2% to 35.2 million bags, while Robusta output surged 37.2% to 20.1 million bags due to improved rainfall. Despite these shifts, total coffee exports fell by 18.4%, although revenues increased by 11.1% driven by higher global prices. A 50% tariff imposed by the United States on specialty coffee has slashed exports in this segment by 70%, pushing producers like Fazenda Komotzium to seek alternative markets. Domestically, coffee consumption dropped 24% following a 70% price hike since 2023, reflecting economic strain and changing consumer behavior. Looking ahead, uncertain rainfall threatens Arabica yields, though...CropGPT - Coffee - Week 42
#26
10/20/2025
This week's coffee market report.
In Brazil, concerns persist over insufficient rainfall in key Arabica-producing regions such as Minas Gerais. Although rain is forecasted, current precipitation levels remain below seasonal norms, raising doubts about optimal flowering and bean development. Concurrently, ongoing trade negotiations with the United States seek to resolve tariff disputes that have negatively impacted Brazilian coffee exports and contributed to reduced shipment volumes and ICE-monitored stock levels.Despite a modest year-over-year production increase forecasted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, structural supply issues are keeping the Arabica market tight. In contrast, Vietnam is experiencing strong...CropGPT - Coffee - Week 41
#25
10/13/2025
This episode explores the shifting dynamics of the global coffee market.
In Brazil, initial optimism driven by forecasts of heavy rainfall in Minas Gerais led to expectations of higher yields and a temporary drop in Arabica prices. However, a sudden shift occurred following the United States’ imposition of 50% tariffs on Brazilian coffee imports, which reduced shipments and tightened iced coffee inventories. This policy shift contributed to upward pressure on prices amid growing concerns about supply constraints. Conab's revised estimates forecast a 4.9% reduction in the 2025 Arabica harvest to 35.2 million bags and a 0.9% drop in total coffee production to 55.2 million ba...CropGPT - Coffee - Week 40
#24
10/06/2025
This week’s coffee market update & currency shifts.
In Brazil, the depreciation of the real has made coffee exports more globally competitive, contributing to a decline in international coffee prices. Favorable rains in Minas Gerais have supported the flowering of Arabica trees, improving outlooks. However, ongoing harvest pressures and reduced export projections from Brazil, reported by Kanab, are weighing down market sentiment. Looking ahead, concerns are mounting over a potential La Niña event, which could bring dry conditions and threaten future yields.Vietnam is experiencing a robust production year, with Robusta output projected to rise by 6 percent to...CropGPT - Coffee - Week 39
#23
09/29/2025
This week’s episode explores key developments across the global coffee market.
In Brazil, regenerative coffee farming practices are gaining momentum, led by companies like Ilsa Brazil. Techniques such as the use of cover crops and organic fertilizers are improving soil health and mitigating climate challenges. These methods have become particularly relevant amid fluctuating market conditions and shifting rainfall patterns in key regions like Minas Gerais, where recent rain temporarily eased dry spells and caused a dip in Arabica prices. However, Brazil’s exports continue to face headwinds due to a 50% U.S. tariff, which has contributed to a dr...CropGPT - Coffee - Week 38
#22
09/23/2025
This episode explores recent market shifts in Brazil’s coffee sector and the broader impact of new U.S. trade tariffs, while also providing agronomic insights into improving coffee yields.
In August, Brazilian coffee exports reached 3.1 million bags, reflecting a 17.5% year-over-year decline but a 14.3% increase from July. Despite reduced exports, internal conditions improved for producers. A favorable exchange rate lowered fertilizer costs by 29% compared to the previous year, and dry weather accelerated harvesting. However, frost risks in the Cerrado Mineiro region could impact the 2026 crop, with potential losses estimated at 412,000 bags.A new 50% tariff imposed by the United St...CropGPT - Coffee - Week 37
#21
09/23/2025
This episode focuses on the foundational role of seedlings in determining the long-term success and productivity of coffee plantations.
Seedling selection and care are highlighted as critical factors for high-yielding, healthy coffee crops. Fernando Villoso emphasizes that optimal outcomes depend on choosing quality seedlings, typically derived from seeds or clonal cuttings of high-performing Arabica varieties. These seedlings are nurtured in well-drained, nutrient-rich nurseries.During the nursery stage, proper shading, pest control, and irrigation are essential to support vigorous development and reduce losses. Once ready for planting, robust seedlings contribute directly to the establishment of productive and sustainable coffee...CropGPT - Coffee - Week 37
#21
09/14/2025
This episode centers on the foundational role of seedlings in determining the success and productivity of coffee plantations.Â
The discussion emphasizes best practices for seedling selection and nursery management, particularly for Arabica coffee.High-quality coffee production begins with choosing the right seedling, whether from seeds or clonal cuttings. These seedlings are cultivated in nutrient-rich, well-drained nurseries that provide optimal shade, water regulation, and pest control. Such conditions are critical for maximizing growth and minimizing losses during the early stages.Healthy, well-managed seedlings serve as the cornerstone for productive, sustainable coffee plantations. Proper nursery practices, including a...CropGPT - Coffee - Week 36
#20
09/08/2025
This episode presents a thorough review of the global coffee market as of September 7, 2025.
Brazil’s coffee market is navigating both favorable and challenging developments. Recent rainfall has eased drought fears, prompting profit-taking after August’s price rally. However, nearing completion of the harvest (94.9 percent by August) is putting downward pressure on prices. Further declines are influenced by a weaker Brazilian real, which has encouraged increased export activity. At the same time, Arabica inventories have reached new lows, falling to 686,163 bags as of September 3, a notable drop from early 2024 levels. Complicating matters, the United States has imposed a 50 perc...CropGPT - Coffee - Week 35
#19
08/31/2025
This episode delivers an in-depth overview of the global coffee market.
Brazil is facing severe weather disruptions, with drought and frost significantly affecting Arabica coffee production across Minas Gerais, SĂŁo Paulo, and EspĂrito Santo. Compounding these challenges, the United States has imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee, resulting in a 28% year-over-year decline in green coffee exports as of July. Although the 2025–26 harvest is nearly complete, logistical delays at northern ports remain problematic.Vietnam's coffee output is also under pressure due to prolonged dry conditions in critical regions like the Central Highlands and Jack Laak. The production fore...CropGPT - Coffee - Week 34
#18
08/26/2025
This episode highlights rising tensions and price volatility in the global coffee market.
In Vietnam, domestic coffee prices have surged sharply, ranging between 124,100 and 124,400 Vietnamese dong per kilogram across major producing regions. This spike aligns with global price increases, driven by speculative buying and a substantial rise in Robusta futures. From January to July, Vietnam's coffee exports grew by 7.6 percent year over year, generating $6 billion in revenue, a 65 percent increase from the previous year. However, the European Union’s anti-deforestation regulation presents challenges, particularly for smallholder farmers, due to its recordkeeping and land certification requirements.Brazil faces market pr...CropGPT - Coffee - Week 33
#18
08/26/2025
This week’s episode covers critical developments in the global coffee market.
Brazil reports a sharp 49 percent year-over-year decline in Robusta coffee exports for July, contributing to an overall 20.4 percent drop in unroasted coffee exports. Despite the lower export volume, revenue reached a record high, driven by global supply shortages and elevated prices. However, new 50 percent tariffs imposed by the United States on Brazilian coffee—mirroring levies on other agricultural commodities—pose significant challenges. The tariffs are expected to impact trade flows and potentially lead to inventory buildups. Meanwhile, Brazil's 2025-2026 coffee output is projected to rise slightly to 65...CropGPT - Coffee - Week 32
#17
08/11/2025
This episode delivers a focused update on the global coffee market for the week of August 10, 2025.
In Brazil, the sector faces potential headwinds from a proposed 50 percent export tariff under former President Trump, a measure that could curb U.S. sales and swell domestic inventories. Harvest progress has reached 74 percent overall and 85 percent for Arabica, but prices remain under pressure. Minas Gerais, the country’s leading Arabica-growing region, has received only 31 percent of its average rainfall, boosting prices but reducing yields. Brazil’s green coffee exports fell 31 percent year-on-year in June, reflecting ample domestic supply and ongoing market stra...CropGPT - Coffee - Week 31
#16
08/04/2025
This episode delivers a focused overview of the global coffee market as of August 3, 2025.
Vietnam's coffee industry continues to excel, with exports reaching $5.69 billion by mid-July 2025, a 66.4 percent increase year over year. Export volumes rose to 1 million tons, up 6.4 percent. This growth is driven by high global coffee prices and a strategic push toward value-added and specialty coffee products. The average export price per ton has climbed to $5,705, a 59 percent increase. Traditional markets such as Germany, Italy, and Spain remain key importers, while emerging markets including Algeria and Mexico are expanding their purchases. Vietnam’s focus on specialty co...CropGPT - Coffee - Week 30
#15
07/28/2025
This episode explores the global coffee market as of July 27, 2025.
Brazil’s coffee harvest is progressing rapidly, with 77% completed by mid-July, outpacing both the previous year and the five-year average. Robusta harvesting is nearly finished at 93%, while Arabica stands at 67%. This accelerated pace signals a strong near-term supply. Major forecasting agencies confirm expectations for a global record crop of 178.68 million bags for the 2025–2026 season, with Robusta production leading. While earlier frost concerns temporarily elevated prices, robust inventories and continuous harvesting have kept pricing stable.However, Brazil faces a new challenge: a 50% tariff on coffee imports into the United Stat...CropGPT - Coffee - Week 29
#14
07/22/2025
This episode highlights key developments in the global coffee market as of July 20, 2025.
In Vietnam, domestic coffee prices in July ranged between VND 90,000 and VND 90,500 per kilogram, showing slight regional variation. The country recorded strong export performance in the first half of the year, shipping 953,900 tons worth $5.45 billion—almost matching the previous year’s total volume and value. However, Vietnam's coffee sector is facing growing pressure from stringent European Union regulations related to deforestation and traceability, which pose significant compliance challenges for small-scale and ethnically diverse producers.Brazil’s coffee market is experiencing downward price pressure, driven by a stro...CropGPT - Coffee - Week 28
#13
07/14/2025
This episode presents a comprehensive overview of the global coffee market as of July 13, 2025.
Brazil continues to face headwinds despite being the top producer of Arabica coffee. Recent U.S. tariff hikes have contributed to rising coffee prices. Compounding these issues is a delayed harvest, with only 40 percent completed by early July, compared to 52 percent at the same time last year. The USDA projects modest output growth, estimating 65 million bags for the season. However, adverse weather in key regions like Minas Gerais is driving price pressures. Brazilian green coffee exports declined sharply in May, down 36 percent year-over-year.Vietnam...CropGPT - Coffee - Week 27
#12
07/07/2025
In this episode, the podcast delivers a concise overview of key developments in the global coffee market as of July 6, 2025.Â
Brazil's coffee harvest is progressing slower than usual, with only 31% completed compared to 42% at this time last year. This delay, attributed to excessive rainfall affecting Arabica beans, has paradoxically helped ease drought concerns. Despite the slowdown, the USDA forecasts a minor 0.5% increase in Brazil's coffee production, reaching 65 million bags for the 2025-2026 season. However, exports have plummeted, with green coffee shipments dropping 36% year over year in May. These mixed signals contribute to bearish market fundamentals in Brazil.Vietnam, a...CropGPT - Coffee - Week 26
#11
06/30/2025
This episode provides a comprehensive overview of the global coffee market as of June 29, 2025, focusing on production forecasts, climatic impacts, and market dynamics across key coffee-producing regions.
Brazil's 2025 coffee output is forecast at 55.7 million bags, up 2.7% from the previous year. This growth is largely attributed to a 28.3% surge in Robusta production in Espirito Santo, while Arabica yields have declined due to drought and cyclical patterns. Harvest progress currently stands at 17.8% overall, with Robusta leading, aided by above-average rainfall in Minas Gerais. However, persistent colder and drier conditions continue to pose risks to crop health.In Vietnam, continued drought...CropGPT - Coffee - Week 25
#10
06/22/2025
Episode Summary: Global Coffee Market Weekly – June 22, 2025
This episode of the Global Coffee Market Weekly focuses on major production and trade developments in Ethiopia and Brazil, offering a snapshot of trends, challenges, and opportunities shaping the international coffee landscape.
CropGPT - Coffee - Week 24
#9
06/15/2025
Episode Summary: Global Coffee Market Weekly – June 15, 2025
This episode of the CropGPT Global Coffee Market Weekly focuses on the latest developments in Vietnam and Brazil, two of the world’s most influential coffee producers.Vietnam reported record-high export revenues of $4.7 billion for the first five months of 2025, despite a slight 0.6% dip in export volumes. The surge was driven by significantly higher prices, averaging $5,709 per ton. Major markets included the European Union and the United States, while emerging markets like Algeria, Mexico, and South Africa also showed strong growth. However, declining global coffee prices and falling domestic prices in Viet...CropGPT - Coffee - Week 23
#8
06/08/2025
Episode Summary: Global Coffee Market Report — June 8, 2025
This episode offers a concise and professional overview of key developments in the global coffee market as of early June 2025. The discussion begins with Colombia, where the National Federation of Coffee Growers has implemented a guaranteed purchase price linked to the New York Stock Exchange and exchange rate fluctuations. As of June 2, Colombian coffee fetched a premium of $344.45 per pound, with internal prices reaching up to 385,000 COP for dry parchment loads, depending on milling performance and quality metrics.
The Brazilian coffee market remains under bearish pressure, primarily due to...
CropGPT - Coffee - Week 22
#7
06/01/2025
This episode provides a structured overview of key developments shaping the global coffee market as of June 1, 2025, with updates from Colombia, Brazil, Vietnam, and the European Union.
Colombia: The National Federation of Coffee Growers continues to implement a structured pricing model tied to New York Stock Exchange coffee prices, daily exchange rates, and Colombian quality premiums. As of May 29, a 125kg load of dry parchment coffee was priced at $2,791 COP. Defective coffee incurs significant price penalties, reinforcing a quality-driven production model that financially protects growers.Brazil: The 2025–26 season is forecast to bring strong Arabica output despite lingering weather co...CropGPT - Coffee - Week 21
#6
05/25/2025
This episode delivers a focused review of the global coffee market for the week ending May 25, 2025, with detailed insights into pricing structures, production forecasts, and international trade developments across Colombia, Brazil, and Vietnam.
Colombia: On May 26, the National Federation of Coffee Growers introduced a revised pricing guarantee to stabilize farmer income. This mechanism anchors local prices to the New York Stock Exchange's closing quote, adjusted by exchange rates and Colombian quality premiums. On the day of the announcement, the C contract closed at 360.75 USD/lb, with Colombia’s reference price set at COP 932,000 per 125 kg of parchment coffee. Ad...CropGPT - Coffee - Week 19
#4
05/11/2025
This episode presents a detailed overview of the global coffee market for the week ending May 11, 2025, with focused analysis on pricing dynamics, export volumes, and production trends across key producing regions including Colombia, Brazil, Uganda, and India.
Colombia: The National Federation of Coffee Growers continues to set a guaranteed daily base price, calculated using the New York Stock Exchange's closing figures, prevailing exchange rates, and premiums for Colombian coffee. On the reporting day, the external contract closed at USD 387.35/lb, and the domestic reference price was COP 3,185,000 per 125 kg of dry parchment. Pricing remains influenced by coffee quality...Ethiopia Coffee: A Decade in Review and Future Outlook
#2
05/05/2025
In this episode, we explore Ethiopia’s vital role in the global coffee industry — from its historical roots to its modern-day reputation for world-class Arabica. Join us as we break down the numbers, compare global rankings, and unpack what makes Ethiopian coffee so special.
Key Highlights:
• Largest coffee producer in Africa
• 5th-largest globally in 2023
• 2023/24 production: 8.35 million 60-kg bags (~501,000 metric tons)Comparison with Top Producers:
• Brazil: 3.4M tons, highly mechanized, 30% of global supply
• Vietnam: 2.0M tons, mostly Robusta...
CropGPT - Coffee - Week 18
#3
05/04/2025
The weekly report on the global Coffee market for week 18. Brought to you by CropGPT
Global Coffee Market Developments: Insights From Recent Years
#1
05/02/2025
