CropGPT - Cocoa
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Cocoa news, weather, pricing, production and predictions
CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 43
#92
Today at 10:00 AM
The weekly report on the global Cocoa market for week 43. Brought to you by CropGPT
CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 41
#91
10/11/2026
Global Cocoa Market SummaryÂ
Ivory Coast harvested 2.06 million tonnes between June 2025 and June 2026, up 30% year on year, while cumulative port arrivals reached 2.18 million tonnes by September 27, an increase of 19.8%. However, the 2026/27 crop is forecast at 1.8 million tonnes, down 18% from the previous season. Poor pod development, below-average rainfall in key growing regions, and excessive rain elsewhere are raising concerns over bean size, pod losses, black pod disease, and delivery delays. Heavy October rainfall has also damaged infrastructure and disrupted port logistics.Ghana's 2026/27 production is preliminarily estimated at 650,000 tonnes, down 13% from the 750,000 tonnes expected for 2025/26. Swollen shoot disease, weather risks, a...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 40
#90
10/04/2026
Global Cocoa Market SummaryÂ
Ivory Coast remains a major influence on the market. The country recorded an exceptional 2025/26 crop, with production reported about 30% above the previous year. However, early indications for the 2026/27 crop point to below-average development, delayed harvesting, and weaker initial deliveries. Reduced rainfall and rising disease prevalence add further risk, supporting a more bullish outlook for forward prices.Ghana has shown signs of recovery in the current crop despite declining expectations for 2026/27. Efforts to support the sector through pricing adjustments face financial challenges, including arrears owed to licensed buying companies. CocoaBOD's financial measures and productivity programs a...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 39
#89
09/27/2026
Global Cocoa Market Summary
Cote d'Ivoire: The 2025/26 season delivered a record 2.06 million tons, up 30% year on year, with port arrivals reaching 2.14 million tons by mid-September (18% to 19% growth) and the farm gate price steady at 1,200 CFA francs per kilogram. The 2026/27 outlook is concerning. Early field surveys point to deficient cherelle formation and poor pod development, with output projected to fall to about 1.8 million tons. Early September deliveries stood at just 26,000 tons, down 45.8% year on year, and the main crop may be delayed by 8 to 10 weeks. Key risks include inadequate rainfall causing premature pod drop, quality problems from insufficient sun-drying...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 38
#88
09/20/2026
Global Cocoa Market Summary: September 20, 2026
Ivory Coast: Cocoa harvest surged to 2,060,000 tons for the June 2025 to June 2026 period, a 30% increase from the previous year's 1,580,000 tons. Port arrivals confirm the abundant supply, with cumulative marketing year shipments up 18 to 19.9% year on year. However, early indicators for 2026/27 point to a weaker outlook, with below average chorel formation and poor pod development driving a main crop estimate of 1,800,000 tons (an 18% decrease). Record rainfall in regions such as Lax and Sassandra Mirahoue has heightened risks of flooding and pod rot.Ghana: Current season output reached 750,000 tons for 2025/26, a 25.6% increase from the prior...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 37
#87
09/13/2026
Global Cocoa Market Summary: September 13, 2026
Ivory Coast: Record output for the 2025/26 season reached 2,060,000 tons, a 30% increase from the previous year's 1,580,000 tons. Port arrivals for the October 2025 to August 2026 marketing year rose to 2,140,000 tons, up 19% year on year. However, the outlook for next season's main crop points to a potential drop to 1,800,000 tons (an 18% decline), with weather conditions raising blackpod disease risk in some regions while others face drier conditions. Financial backing from institutions such as FMO aims to support processing capacity, though structural challenges persist.Ghana: Current season output stands at 750,000 tons, a notable 25.6% increase, but future estimates...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 33
#86
08/16/2026
Global Cocoa Market Summary
Ivory Coast recorded cocoa shipments of approximately 2.11 million metric tons in the current marketing year, up 20% year on year. However, early estimates for the 2026/27 season point to production of around 1.8 million tons, reflecting an expected decline from current levels as warmer and drier conditions threaten yields.Ghana also reported strong production growth, with output rising 25.6% to 750,000 metric tons in the 2025/26 season. The outlook for 2026/27 is considerably weaker, with production potentially falling to between 450,000 and 550,000 tons. Aging plantations, swollen shoot disease, and the risk of unfavorable weather are key concerns, while illegal mining...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 29
#85
07/19/2026
Global Cocoa Market Summary
In Ivory Coast, farmer cocoa shipments have risen 21 percent to 2.09 million tons, reflecting a strong current season. However, the outlook for the 2026/27 crop is considerably weaker, with production projected to decline 18 percent to 1.8 million tons. Heavy rainfall has increased the risk of brown rot and black pod disease, while the potential development of a strong El Nino could bring drier conditions later in the season, placing additional stress on yields. A sharp reduction in mid-crop farmgate prices is also expected to weigh on farmer incomes and production incentives.Ghana faces many of the same...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 28
#84
07/12/2026
Global Cocoa Market SummaryÂ
Ivory Coast, where persistent heavy rains have restricted access to cocoa farms and increased the spread of diseases such as brown rot and black pod. The potential return of El Nino is expected to further reduce flowering, pod quality, and yields during the 2026/27 main crop. Preliminary forecasts suggest production could fall to around 1.8 million tonnes, representing a significant decline from previous seasons. The discussion also highlights that the 2025/26 season recorded a 10.8 percent year on year production decline, while a sharp reduction in mid crop farmgate prices has increased financial pressure on producers and raised c...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 27
#83
07/05/2026
 Global Cocoa Market Summary
In Cote d'Ivoire, a sharp decline in global cocoa prices has left more than 700,000 metric tons of cocoa unsold, placing significant financial strain on farmers despite a government-set producer price designed to provide stability. Reduced buying activity from major trading firms, criticism of forward selling strategies, and heavy rainfall disrupting farm access while increasing disease risks have further complicated the situation.Ghana is facing similar challenges. Although a large share of the 2025/26 harvest was sold in advance to reduce exposure to market volatility, the government was still forced to lower the official producer price t...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 26
#82
06/28/2026
Global Cocoa Market Summary
Uneven rainfall patterns across Ivory Coast are creating significant challenges during a critical stage of crop development, while concerns over disease pressure and the potential return of El Nino continue to support a bullish outlook for cocoa markets.Heavy rainfall in parts of Ivory Coast has increased the risk of flooding and black pod disease, while key western growing regions are experiencing below average rainfall, threatening flowering and pod development for the upcoming October main crop. Persistent cloud cover is also limiting sunlight, further affecting crop growth in several producing areas.Although Ghana has...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 25
#81
06/21/2026
Global Cocoa Market Weekly Summary
West Africa's two dominant cocoa producers, Ghana and Ivory Coast, are grappling with deepening structural and financial pressures that threaten to constrain global supply through the 2025/26 season and beyond.In Ghana, farmers are facing payment delays of up to six months from licensed buying companies, leaving them without the working capital needed for basic operations such as harvesting and transport. Some farmers are reportedly withholding beans until payment is assured, raising the risk of near-term supply disruptions. While the Ghana Cocoa Board has indicated that funds have been allocated to clear outstanding arrears...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 24
#80
06/14/2026
 Global Cocoa Market Summary
In Ivory Coast, severe rains and strong winds damaged young flower buds and cocoa trees, raising concerns about future yields. Despite these weather challenges, cocoa port arrivals remained strong, reaching 1.69 million metric tons by early June, up 3% from the previous year. Government forecasts continue to point toward a sizeable crop, with deliveries expected to reach 2.2 million metric tons. However, a 57% reduction in the mid-crop farmgate price has raised concerns about its potential impact on farmer incomes and future production incentives.Ghana also reduced official farmgate prices for the 2025-26 season by approximately 30%. While the c...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 23
#79
06/07/2026
Global Cocoa Market Summary
Ivory Coast is navigating heightened volatility in ICE cocoa futures, with rising certified warehouse stocks and declining grinding volumes in major markets pointing toward a near-term surplus. The government has forecast a 10.8% decline in production for the 2025/26 season, bringing output to approximately 1,650,000 metric tons. Looking ahead, lower farm gate prices risk discouraging investment in crop maintenance, while the potential emergence of El Nino conditions could introduce further supply-side disruption through prolonged dry spells.Ghana faces a structurally similar set of pressures, with falling farm gate prices eroding farmers' capacity to fund essential agronomic inputs...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 22
#78
05/31/2026
Global Cocoa Market Summary
Ivory Coast has revised its 2025/26 delivery estimate upward to 2.2 million metric tons, a sharp recovery from earlier forecasts of 1.65 million metric tons, driven by improved weather conditions. Port arrivals reached 1.64 million metric tons by 24 May 2026, up 2.5% year on year. However, a 57% reduction in farm gate prices for mid-crop poses a material risk to future production quality and volume by discouraging adequate crop management.Ghana faces a projected 30% decline in farm gate prices for the 2025/26 season, which could deter farmers from making necessary investments in crop care. The government is seeking to raise $1 billion through...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 21
#77
05/24/2026
Global Cocoa Market Summary
Cocoa producing regions face divergent trajectories, with Ivory Coast benefiting from favorable weather conditions while Nigeria and other producers confront structural headwinds. El Niño conditions pose a significant emerging risk between May and July 2026, threatening to disrupt yields across West Africa and reverse recent production gains. The contrast between near-term supply expansion and longer-term climatic uncertainty creates asymmetric market dynamics.Ivory Coast has revised its 2026 cocoa delivery forecast upward to 2,200,000 metric tons from the previous range of 1.8 to 1,900,000 metric tons, driven by favorable growing conditions. This substantial increase in production projections has created a...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 20
#76
05/17/2026
Global Cocoa Market Summary
Cocoa producing regions face mounting pressures from climate uncertainty and economic headwinds, with Ivory Coast and Ghana at particular risk as El Nino conditions threaten substantial yield disruptions. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates a 61% probability of El Nino occurring in 2026, creating significant climatic volatility for the sector.Ivory Coast's cocoa output projections have been revised downward by 10.8%, with forecasted production now estimated at 1,650,000 metric tons for the 2025-26 season. This adjustment reflects anticipated weather extremes and their impact on crop health.The economic landscape for cocoa farmers has deteriorated markedly, with farm...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 19
#75
05/10/2026
Global Cocoa Market Summary
Ivory Coast remains under significant stress, with 2025/26 production forecast to fall 10.8% to 1,650,000 metric tons as drought affects more than half the country. A 57% reduction in mid-crop farm gate prices threatens to suppress farmer investment and maintenance activity going forward. Cumulative shipments have edged up 0.7% year on year to 1,540,000 metric tons as of early May 2026, though the ongoing dry spell poses a direct threat to the mid-crop currently in progress.Ghana is confronting both climatic and structural challenges simultaneously. Drought conditions now cover approximately two thirds of the country, while the government's state buying company...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 18
#74
05/03/2026
Global Cocoa Market Summary
Ivory Coast is projecting output of 1,650,000 metric tons for 2025/26, down 10.8% from 1,850,000 metric tons the prior year. Drought conditions affecting more than half the country (as reported by the African Flood and Drought Monitor) are the primary driver, compounded by a 57% cut in mid-crop farm gate prices that may discourage farmer investment in future seasons. Port arrivals through April 19, 2026 have nonetheless held steady, with cumulative shipments up 0.7% year on year at 1,510,000 metric tons.Ghana faces a sharper contraction, with forecasts pointing to a nearly 30% reduction in 2025/26 output. Drought is affecting approximately two thirds of the...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 16
#73
04/19/2026
Global Cocoa Market Weekly Summary
Germany's cocoa processing volumes declined 6.7% to 90,152 metric tons in 2026, reflecting tight bean supplies and sustained price volatility. This contributes to European grinders recording their weakest collective volumes in twelve years, with global prices having swung from a peak of around $12,000 per metric ton in 2025 to under $3,000 per metric ton recently.In Ghana, farmers have reported unpaid arrears totalling approximately $10 billion since November 2025, compounded by a 29% reduction in farm gate prices. CocoaBod has drawn criticism for its forward sales strategy, with pre-financing cut from 70% to 30% of projected revenues after anticipated high prices failed to...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 15
#72
04/12/2026
Global Cocoa Market Weekly SummaryÂ
The global cocoa market is navigating a period of significant strain, with drought conditions, falling prices, and income reductions for farmers converging to create a challenging outlook across major producing regions.
Ivory Coast
Ivory Coast continues to lead global cocoa production, recording a slight increase in port shipments for the 2025/26 marketing year, totaling 1,450,000 metric tons. However, drought conditions now affect more than half the country, posing material risks to mid-crop yields. In response to declining cocoa prices, the government has reduced farmer pay by 57% beginning April 2026. This income c...
CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 14
#71
04/05/2026
Global Cocoa Market Weekly Summary: April 8, 2026
West Africa's cocoa sector faces mounting pressure in the 2025/26 season, with production declines, falling farmer incomes, and rising operational costs converging to create significant uncertainty across global supply chains.Ivory Coast, the world's leading cocoa producer, is projected to see output fall by 10.8% to approximately 1,650,000 metric tons, down from 1,850,000 metric tons the prior year. Severe drought affecting more than half the country is the primary driver of this contraction. Compounding the supply-side strain, the government has implemented a 57% reduction in mid-crop farmer pay, effective April 2026. Operational costs have also...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 12
#70
03/22/2026
This episode examines a global cocoa market.
Ivory Coast is a major focus, with cocoa production for the 2025-26 season projected to fall 10.8 percent year over year to 1.65 million metric tons, down from 1.85 million tons the previous season. That weaker outlook is reinforced by lower port arrivals through mid-March, indicating reduced export flow. At the same time, higher shipping costs linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are increasing import expenses and lending temporary support to cocoa prices. The government’s 57 percent cut in farm gate prices has also encouraged some renewed local buying, as processors mo...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 50
#69
12/14/2025
This episode delivers a focused analysis of the global cocoa market.
In Ivory Coast, despite optimal growing conditions, concerns have emerged due to logistical inefficiencies and labor shortages. These issues have contributed to a 1.8% year-over-year decline in port arrivals, raising questions about harvest timing and distribution capabilities. Nonetheless, the potential for stable or increased yields remains if these barriers are addressed.Nigeria's cocoa output forecast for the 2025–26 season has been cut by 11% to 305,000 tons. This revision, driven by poor farming conditions and weak infrastructure, adds to global supply concerns and could support higher prices if the tightening trend pe...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 49
#68
12/07/2025
This episode explores the current state of the global cocoa market.
Nigeria is projected to see an 11% decline in cocoa production for the 2025–26 season, bringing output down to 305,000 tons. This drop is attributed to ongoing structural challenges in cultivation and logistics. The contraction in Nigerian supply is especially notable given that United States cocoa stocks have reached an eight-month low of 1.685 million bags, further tightening the global supply outlook.In the Ivory Coast and Ghana, favorable growing conditions have supported cocoa pod development, yet port arrivals in the Ivory Coast fell 2.1% year-over-year to 718,451 tons. This suggests possible production or...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 48
#67
11/30/2025
This week’s global cocoa market report.
The Ivory Coast is set to benefit from the European Union's delayed enforcement of its deforestation regulation, preserving market access until late 2026. While cocoa pod counts are currently 7 percent above the five-year average, port arrivals have dropped by 3.7 percent year over year, totaling 618,899 metric tons as of late November. This contrast between strong crop indicators and reduced logistical throughput highlights ongoing sector vulnerabilities.Ghana shares a similarly positive crop outlook, bolstered by the EU’s regulatory delay. However, declining cocoa grind rates in key consumption regions may weigh on demand for Ghan...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 47
#66
11/23/2025
Here's a professional summary of the episode focused on the global cocoa market for November 23, 2025:
Cocoa production in Ivory Coast is currently above the five-year average, driven by favorable weather and optimal pod development. Despite a 5.7 percent year-on-year decline in exports for October and November, the drop reflects logistical challenges rather than reduced output. Farmers remain hopeful for the main crop, though global demand fluctuations and policy changes add uncertainty. Ghana reports similarly strong production prospects due to healthy agricultural conditions, but faces demand-side and regulatory pressures.Nigeria contrasts with its neighbors, projecting an 11 percent production decline for...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 46
#65
11/16/2025
This episode offers an in-depth analysis of the global cocoa market as of November 16, 2025.
In the Ivory Coast, cocoa production remains robust, supported by favorable weather that has enhanced pod development and bean drying efficiency. Harvest volumes are 7 percent above the five-year average. However, port arrivals have dropped by 9 percent year over year. This is not due to reduced output, but rather early-season logistical bottlenecks and farmers delaying shipments.Ghana is also experiencing strong agricultural conditions, with rapid pod development and favorable feedback from farmers suggesting a strong upcoming harvest. Nonetheless, softer chocolate sales in North America and...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 45
#64
11/09/2025
This episode covers key developments in the global cocoa market.
In the Ivory Coast, the main crop harvest has begun under favorable dry weather, which has improved cocoa bean drying conditions. However, despite a strong start, cocoa exports have declined from 365,072 metric tons to 304,140 metric tons early in the marketing year. This, combined with ICE-monitored inventories hitting a seven-and-a-half-month low, may add upward pressure on prices. The decline in exports could also signal deeper issues related to forestry management or macroeconomic instability.Ghana's cocoa sector is experiencing a mix of beneficial and adverse conditions. While strong weather supports...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 44
#63
11/02/2025
This episode provides an in-depth overview of the cocoa market.
Ivory Coast enters the season with strong production expectations, with pod counts above the five-year average. However, significant volumes of preseason stock are being rejected by grinders and exporters due to concerns over small bean size and low fat content. Although the main crop is robust, the mid-crop yield is expected to decline by 9% from the previous year, raising quality concerns. In response to economic pressures and the upcoming presidential election, the government has raised cocoa prices to support approximately five million farmers. Despite this, liquidity shortages and...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 42
#62
10/19/2025
This week's cocoa market report highlights regional production shifts.
In the Ivory Coast, cocoa pod counts have risen 7% above the five-year average, driven by higher farmgate prices. However, exports fell sharply, down over 50% year on year, totaling just 48,753 metric tons in early October. While the elevated pricing policy aims to support farmer incomes and encourage production, critics warn it may lead to global oversupply. Additionally, mid-crop quality and volumes have declined due to insufficient rainfall, with estimates lowered to 400,000 metric tons (a 9% annual drop).Ghana, by contrast, has seen a surge in cocoa deliveries. Between August and early...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 41
#61
10/12/2025
This episode provides a concise update on the global cocoa market as of October 12, 2025.
Ivory Coast has increased its guaranteed farm gate price to $4.5 per kilogram, a strategic move ahead of upcoming elections aimed at improving farmer incomes. As the world’s leading cocoa producer, contributing 14% to national GDP and supporting around 5 million people, this price hike may prompt neighboring countries like Ghana to reevaluate their own pricing models. Favorable weather conditions support strong cocoa pod development, although concerns persist about mid-crop quality due to earlier adverse weather.Ghana has responded with a fivefold increase in cocoa deliveries, re...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 40
#60
10/05/2025
This week's cocoa market update focuses on production trends, policy responses, and disease challenges shaping the outlook across major West African producers: Ivory Coast, Ghana, and Nigeria.
Ivory Coast is experiencing a mixed production season. While the main crop (October to March) shows promise with a 7 percent increase in pod counts above the five-year average due to favorable weather, the mid-crop harvest (April to September) fell 9 percent year over year. This decline is linked to late rains that hindered pod development. Export growth slowed significantly, dropping from a 35 percent rise as of December 2024 to just 4.6 percent year over...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 39
#59
09/28/2025
This episode provides a comprehensive overview of the current trends, challenges, and developments shaping the global cocoa market.Â
Côte d’Ivoire, which contributes about 40% of the world’s cocoa supply, continues to benefit from government-led agricultural improvement and sustainability initiatives. However, these gains are moderated by unpredictable weather conditions and threats from pests and disease. Political stability and a supportive regulatory environment remain essential to maintaining production levels. Recent projections indicate potential output growth, bolstered by favorable conditions and efforts to replace aging cocoa trees.In Ghana, the second largest global producer, the emphasis on sustainable farming is beg...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 38
#58
09/21/2025
This week's episode provides a global cocoa market developments as of September 21, 2025.
In Ivory Coast, favorable weather has boosted the main cocoa crop, but extended heavy rains have hampered port deliveries and bean drying, raising quality concerns. The mid-crop output has declined 9% year over year, reaching 400,000 metric tons. Export growth has also slowed to 5.8%, further altering market dynamics.Ghana forecasts an 8.3% increase in cocoa production for the 2025–2026 season, aiming for 650,000 metric tons. This outlook is underpinned by better access to fertilizers and pest control, though irregular rainfall and the prevalence of black pod disease continue to threaten yields an...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 37
#57
09/14/2025
This episode explores key developments in the global cocoa market.
In Ivory Coast, despite increased pod counts and an optimistic harvest forecast, quality concerns persist due to late rains affecting pod development. The mid-crop yield is now projected at 400,000 tons. Although export volumes remain stable, they represent a slowdown from prior peaks, further strained by dry conditions impacting both quality and quantity. The suspension of operations by Cargill due to bean quality deterioration underscores the ongoing challenges for regional processors.Ghana expects an 8.3 percent increase in cocoa production for the 2025–2026 season, reaching 650,000 metric tons, supported by yield enhancement pr...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 37
#56
09/14/2025
The weekly report on the global Cocoa market for week 37. Brought to you by CropGPT
CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 36
#55
09/07/2025
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This episode provides a detailed weekly overview of the global cocoa market for September 7, 2025.
Ivory Coast, the world's leading cocoa producer, is facing its worst drought in 46 years. The dry conditions have reduced pod retention, slowed exports since December, and raised concerns about quality. Mid-crop rejection rates have climbed to 5 to 6 percent, compared to the usual 1 percent, and production is forecast to decline by 9 percent to 400,000 metric tons, down from 440,000 last year. Ghana offers a more optimistic picture, with production expected to rise by 8.3 percent to 650,000 metric tons in the 2025–26 season. However, disease pressures, particularly black pod...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 35
#54
08/31/2025
This episode delivers a detailed overview of the global cocoa market.
In the Ivory Coast, cocoa prices have dropped amid forecasts of improved rainfall following the driest 30-day stretch since 1979. Although the rainfall may help stabilize yields ahead of the October harvest, mid-crop quality concerns persist. Estimates for the 2025 mid-crop have been revised downward by 9% to 400,000 metric tons, while cocoa rejection rates during transport have risen significantly, signaling broader quality issues. Export growth has also slowed, totaling 1.79 million metric tons since October.Ghana is grappling with the impact of black pod disease due to cold, dry conditions, which...CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 34
#53
08/24/2025
This episode provides a comprehensive overview of the global cocoa market as of August 24, 2025.
In Ivory Coast, the cocoa sector faces significant strain due to the longest dry spells in 46 years, affecting pod retention and threatening harvest volumes. While upcoming rains may improve crop conditions, mid-crop cocoa has already suffered, with processors reporting rejection rates as high as 56 percent compared to just 1 percent during the main crop. U.S. port inventories are down, partly due to slower exports from Ivory Coast, although improved rainfall offers cautious optimism for the next main crop season.Ghana is forecasted to produce 650,000...