Geopolitical Cousins

Scott Bessent really said “trust the process.”

Bub, do you know the process? It's the Philadelphia 76ers deliberately being the worst team in basketball for half a decade. Pick a better sports metaphor. Anyway, here’s a conspiracy theory nobody on Wall Street will touch - - - - - The Fed isn’t hiking because of inflation - actual inflation is coming down. It’s hiking because economic agents have started expecting American incoherence as a permanent condition, and that’s the macroeconomic AIDS. They’re targeting oil prices. They’re targeting the war. Also: France might just be Il...

OpenAI burned $15 million in three days to beat Anthropic to a Millennium Prize problem. Nobody's quite sure whose work they trained on to do it. This week the cousins bring in their science cousin - physicist Dan Green, Marko's college roommate - to explain what AI is actually doing to math, and why the whole thing smells less like a real breakthrough and more like an elaborate flex.

And... when a company tells you that their product might end humanity, is that a warning or a pitch deck? Marko has thoughts. Plus: why the dangerous scenario isn't...

The Houthis have an email address. You send them your ship's name, your transponder number, and they send you back a bank account. It's all very cultured. And the Iranians could have taken oil to $200 back in March but... They didn't. The Houthis could have flattened the East-West Pipeline seven years ago but... They didn't. So when everybody on Twitter is losing their toupees over Brent at 110, ask the better question: not what could happen, but why it hasn't. This is piracy, not jihad. These guys want to get P - A - I - D.

Plus...

AfD won 44% in Saxony-Anhalt, and the Twittersphere (x-sphere just doesn't hit, sorry) immediately projected Panzer divisions massing on the Polish border. Is AfD kinda scary right-wing populist? For sure. But every right-wing populist party in Europe has faced this same test over the last decade, and 17 out of 17 came to Jesus on the Euro once they had to actually govern. So is Germany becoming the Fourth Reich?? Unlikely. This is just what happens to a country where too much remains unsayable - about immigration, about Ukraine, about energy - and who fills that vacuum.

Also: Greek shippers...

Rabies-infested beavers. Not an insult - a fiscal strategy. Canadians have stopped buying bourbon, started flying maple leaf flags in grocery stores, and ~ most importantly ~ handed Mark Carney the political cover to build infrastructure needed since the OG Trudeau. This week: why "size of the fight in the dog" beats a trade balance sheet, why 5% tariff coverage is somehow triggering a national identity crisis, and why America might be the Uncle Dennis of North America - took free money, overstayed the welcome, and is now shocked nobody wants him at Thanksgiving.

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Timestamps:

(00:00...

Scott Bessent says he doesn't understand why oil prices are spiking. The guy standing between America and the River Styx is confused :) The cousins crack open a few cold ones this week and break down why the 30-year just hit a 20-year high - not debt, not deficits, just vibes. Atrocious ones. The lads cover the war in Iran, tweets about North Korea, and a bond market that's done playing along. Plus... are hyperscalers minting money or building the next great overbuild? And what does the Lakers sale have to do with any of this? Everything, obviously.

...

It's been a minute. Marko and Jacob are back after a long gap, and not much has changed: the Hormuz standoff drags on, the war in Ukraine grinds forward, and the stock market shrugged it all off. Marko argues freedom of navigation was always empire's marketing slogan. Jacob pushes back on why Israel keeps mattering more than his own theory allows. The cousins disagree about Russia's next move, but what's new?

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome Back Cousins!

(00:53) - Same Old Geopolitics

(01:43) - Hormuz Deal Rumors

(02:26) - Markets...

Round two. Same four analysts, a lot more whiskey, and a lot less structure.

Peter Zeihan, Marko Papic, and Matt Gertken sit back down with Jacob - a man who cut his teeth pestering all three of them for their pieces as a Stratfor intern - for an unfiltered conversation about how they actually became geopolitical strategists. They trade formative-moment stories from Stratfor's early-2000s "golden age" (including the Egypt/Mubarak call that made Jacob's career), debate whether corporate America can ever hire real geopolitical talent, and each name the one book that shaped how they see...

Sixteen years after last sharing a table together, four Stratfor alumni reunite for a wide-ranging conversation on the decade ahead. Jacob and Marko are joined by Peter Zeihan, and Matt Gertken to tackle three questions: How does the world end in the next 10 years? What core belief could each of us get wrong? And what's the least expected, most likely thing to happen next?

The conversation ranges from deglobalization and collapsing oil supply chains to the demographic cliff facing the developed world, the odds of deflation versus inflation in the 2030s, and whether the global order ends...

The cousins reconvene with the BCA brain trust - Juan Correa, Robert Tipper, and Jeremie Peloso - for the World Cup post-mortem. The model called all four semifinalists but missed champion Spain, so the crew litigates whether the winner's curse is dead, whether the GOAT variable was a methodological capitulation, and what Cape Verde, Norway, and Egypt say about the value of a center of gravity. Also on the docket: Trump's Balogun red-card intervention, the treatment of Iran's squad, a Paraguayan senator's meltdown, and why immigration keeps winning on the pitch.

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Timestamps:

(00:00...

Iran again. Yes, again :( nobody's thrilled, but that's the content. The cousins break down a week of tanker attacks, retaliations to retaliations, and a 20% toll that became "great investments" in 24 hours. Marko's pitch: stop forecasting oil prices and start using them - they're an input, not an output. Jacob pushes back on who actually wants what. Then Japan, where rising yields and a yen at 162 have the macro world whispering about the carry trade. Plus a super El Niño, and the World Cup - because apparently the whole planet is rooting for England now. Rare.

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Iran, Hormuz, another tanker on fire - sure, fine, but the real question is: what's actually driving the behavior here, and it's not the diplomacy everyone keeps quoting. Marko and Jacob argue it out: chokepoint tolls, the memorandum nobody trusts, oil prices doing more work than anyone wants to admit. Then Europe, because apparently that's still a thing - NATO's arms-deal theater, Le Pen's conviction, a French case nobody's making. And yes, the World Cup gets its forty minutes. It's a good one.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Episode Preview

(01:00...

It's the Book Episode!!! Marko and Jacob turn their usual geopolitical sparring into a book draft: eight titles each, no rules, no rankings, just the texts that actually built their analytical muscle

Drones aren't a technological revolution - they're a pain-tolerance equalizer, letting Ukraine strike refineries deep inside a country that never planned to defend them. Jacob and Marko trace the defender's-advantage pattern across 1948 Israel, Vietnam, and Nagorno-Karabakh, arguing offense rarely wins against a population fighting for its home. The long-term call: Ukraine emerges as the next South Korea, corruption and all, while Putin's 2022 claim that "there is no Ukraine" ages into one of history's great own-goals. There's a new Ukraine being born, and Putin is a founding father :)

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Show Updates Teasers<...

Cousins hits the road for its first-ever in-person episode, recorded at Matt Gertken's home in Taos, New Mexico! Jacob, Marko, and Matt dig into the brewing standoff between Anthropic and the US government over export controls on its Mythos AI model, then zoom out to ask whether AI marks a civilizational rupture on par with industrialization itself - pitting the state, corporations, and "free-for-all" chaos against each other for control. They pivot to the Iran-Israel-US "hate triangle," the Strait of Hormuz, and what a fragile peace means for Gulf states and China. They close out with hot takes on...

World Cup Time!!!!!!!

Robert Tipper and Juan Correa are our guests.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Secret Forecast Origins

(01:23) - Meet The Authors

(03:02) - Juan Football Roots

(07:41) - Marco World Cup Memories

(10:07) - Robert Germany Stories

(14:47) - Jacob 2014 Awakening

(19:06) - Why Soccer Is Hard

(21:50) - Inside The Model

(28:28) - What Doesnt Predict

(30:22) - Group Stage Surprises

(31:40) - Home Edge And Curse

(35:16) - Why Champions Collapse

(36:08) - Argentina Winner Curse<...

The Strait of Hormuz is running out of runway - and so is the Trump administration's room to maneuver... The cousins unpack why oil inventories are the real ammunition in the Iran standoff, why markets keep hitting all-time highs despite closed shipping lanes, and what the AI economy's dominance says about the K-shaped world underneath. We close with NBA playoff predictions (duh) ahead of a Thunder-Spurs Game 7.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome

(00:28) - Weekend Hoops and Aging

(02:09) - Travel Grind and Vivid Dream

(04:23) - Tales From the Road...

Jacob and Marko dive straight into the Iran-US ceasefire negotiations (airstrikes are hitting Iranian ships and missile sites as I type) - dissecting domestic political constraints on both sides, the Strait of Hormuz's diminishing leverage window, and why the emerging deal is arguably a worse JCPOA. They pivot to Gen Z's eroding relationship with nationalism, Erdoğan's assault on Turkey's main opposition party, protests in Serbia AND OF COURSE close on the NBA playoffs.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome

(01:03) - Cousins Reunite!!

(01:58) - Iran Ceasefire Strikes Update

(05:20) - D...

Trade Value Index 2026 Part 3!

Okay, okay... Here's the FULL list -> https://tinyurl.com/gctvi26

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome Back and Housekeeping

(01:37) - Netanyahu Reconsidered

(03:07) - Trump Iran War and Tariffs

(05:37) - Ejecting Netanyahu TBD

(06:09) - Cyprus Surprise Pick

(08:37) - Finland NATO and Stubb

(10:21) - Zelensky Case for Top Tier

(20:34) - Pope Leo XIV Rising Influence

(27:15) - Mitsotakis and Greece Comeback

(32:53) - Modi and Sheinbaum Rankings

(35:28) - Bukele Drops to Four<...

2026 Trade Values P2 :)

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome

(00:42) - Part Two Setup

(02:31) - Lula at Fifteen

(05:17) - Macron Debate

(09:57) - Noboa and Ecuador Crime

(11:47) - Uzbekistan Rising

(13:28) - Uzbek Reforms Deep Dive

(17:28) - Japan New Prime Pick

(21:46) - Denmark and Greenland Standoff

(24:03) - List Mixup and Denmark

(25:17) - Xi Jinping Rising

(26:53) - Xi Strengths and Risks

(31:28) - Javier Milei Debate

(34:08) - Rapid Fire Picks

(37:42) - Top 10...

The Trade Value Index is back!!!!!!! Part 1.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Housekeeping

(00:47) - Why We Love Rankings

(02:15) - Trade Value Rules Explained

(06:59) - How We Score Leaders

(08:29) - What Trade Value Means

(11:03) - Last Year Rankings Recap

(13:01) - Wins Misses and Dropoffs

(19:43) - Starting the Countdown

(20:00) - Jacob Cuts and Bottom Five

(26:12) - Vietnam Surprise Pick

(27:44) - Marco Honorable Mentions

(30:58) - Dishonorable Mentions and Merz

(32:34) - Merz Under Fire

Trump and Xi shook hands in Beijing, and yes, the soccer mom in all of us should appreciate that two nuclear superpowers are behaving like adults. But let's not kid ourselves :) soybeans and Boeing orders don't a détente make. JShap thinks Trump can't carry the baton; Marko says he's the only one who can land the plane he launched. Meanwhile, the CIA's running around Mexico, Cuba's running out of diesel, and AOC is sharpening her ideological fangs.

After Dark, as advertised.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Show rundown and updates

(00:45...

The lads turn an unscripted session into a sharp diagnosis of the US-China relationship amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis. They debate whether China is strategically patient or simply indifferent - and what its silence means for the Global South. The Xi-Trump summit looms as both the dealmaker's prize and the ultimate test of a G2 world.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introooo

(01:20) - China Defies Iran Sanctions

(03:33) - Oil Markets and Sanctions Backfire

(07:52) - Summit Hype and Trade Deal Goals

(10:05) - G2 vs Multipolar Debate

Recorded late at night from New Orleans and Montreal, Jacob and Marko dig into the Iran-Hormuz standoff as oil prices climb and the ceasefire holds... for now. They debate who bears the blame, whether China's patience has limits, and what a US-China deal might mean for the strait. Plus: Canada's sovereign wealth fund and the Cousins Trade Value Index preview.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - After Dark

(00:44) - Jazz Hour Banter

(03:01) - From Sports to Iran

(03:36) - Oil Shock Signals

(05:46) - Ceasefire and Storage

(10:06...

Oil analyst Rory Johnston joins Jacob and Marko to break down why energy experts are alarmed by the Strait of Hormuz closure while markets remain at an all time high. Like wtf. Rory explains the 13 million barrel-per-day supply hole, the math on strategic reserves, and what timeline triggers a real price spike. The hosts probe whether Trump's leverage is shrinking faster than Iran's.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome

(00:35) - Meet Rory Johnston

(01:30) - Canada and 51st State Banter

(04:12) - The Light on Fire Game

(07:52) - Where...

China isn't losing the energy war with America, it's not even flinching. Jacob and Marko break down why the "choke China's oil" thesis is economically illiterate, why the US and China actually want the same thing (cheap oil), and why Trump is more vulnerable to gasoline prices than Xi ever will be.

Also: Billy Bob Thornton, hairy forearms, and bananas.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Housekeeping

(01:00) - Weekend Sports Banter

(01:53) - Iran Headlines to Real Stakes

(03:31) - China Oil Imports Reality Check

(05:16) - Fungible Oil...

Marko and Jacob dig into the Iran ceasefire - is it real, or theater? Marko argues Trump's bombing campaign materially set back Iran's nuclear program, making even a JCPOA-style deal a net win. They also cover the erosion of the petrodollar system, bid farewell to Viktor Orbán, and debate whether TMZ opening a DC bureau is civilization's final chapter.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Show Notes and Shoutouts

(00:56) - Hero Principal Story

(02:07) - Bingo Card Banter

(04:39) - Ceasefire and Strait Signals

(07:27) - Iranian Infighting and Markets

Marko is unbothered by ceasefire hand-wringing. He argues the Strait of Hormuz traffic was already recovering before any deal — because Iran is rationally cashing in through a tolling mechanism, not risking its leverage. Jacob frets the deal's fragile and spoilers lurk. Elsewhere: KMT's Beijing trip signals Taiwan's shifting mood, eight Senate seats are suddenly in play, Trump's economy approval is a catastrophic 31%, and both cousins have quietly become Claude fanboys.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome

(00:38) - Listener Requests and Ethiopia Pivot

(02:13) - Coffee Gifts and Khat Banter

(04:06) - Ce...

We recorded this pre-speech episode earlier today (April 1st), racing the clock before Trump's evening address. Marko seems to think that Trump will zag spectacularly - not taco, not escalate, but announce a NATO exit to distract from the Iran morass. Jacob thinks that there are two most likely scenarios following Trump's speech today. Behind Door A is a taco salad. Behind Door B is economic catastrophe. There might be a "third, secret door" - but you'll have to tune in to learn more :)

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Open

(00:53) - Pregame Iran...

The boys are back! It's only been like 13 days!! Chill!! Also - the Iran conflict isn't just a headline risk - it's a physical supply crisis hiding in plain sight. Despite oil sitting at $93, Marko argues the world is weeks away from a non-linear cliff: floating storage is depleting, Iranian and Russian sanctioned oil relief is a 30-day band-aid, and by mid-April, petrochemicals, LNG, semiconductors, and plastics all face cascading disruption.

His verdict: this resolves, or it goes Mad Max.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Welcome

01:32 Beer And Banter

05:05 Trump...

Marko walks through his mathematical framework for how long the US-Iran conflict lasts:

(Iran's pain tolerance) - (America's punitive air campaign) - (the global response to Hormuz closure) = ?????

They dudes argue about why Iran's drone attacks are already collapsing under B-52 pressure, explain why China won't back Tehran, and warn that the real nightmare scenario isn't the straits — it's Iraq.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Mailbag Setup

(00:36) - Straits Transit Joke and SNL Banter

(01:44) - Friday Updates and Personal Chaos

(04:49) - Cuba Iran an...

Marko and Jacob are back for a late Monday debrief as the Iran-Israel conflict whiplashes through price swings, contradictory Trump proclamations, and a surprise succession in Tehran. Marko breaks down why Iran's malleable war aims and slowing drone attacks signal a regime running out of stomach for a fight... and why the Strait of Hormuz remains the only geography that truly matters.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - New Mailbag! also Hello!

(01:04) - Oil Whiplash Recap

(02:15) - Trump War Quotes

(02:54) - Menu Metaphor

(04:21) - Markets and Reflexivity

Distantly related cousin Matt Gertken joins the GC crew to dissect the escalating US-Iran conflict, and while he IS on record as the self-proclaimed "godfather of fading geopolitical risk" - even he's alarmed. His singular fixation: drones and the Strait of Hormuz. Forget the ballistic missiles, forget Tehran's skyline. If Iran can disrupt that chokepoint - even as a failed state - the world faces a global recession.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome

(00:47) - Oval Office Firings

(01:29) - Is This Becoming Regional War

(05:04) - Closing Hormuz Drones Threat<...

We brought in Ed Richardson - tanker maven, shipping expert, and one of the sharpest minds on how the world actually moves its oil. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, we break down why insurance isn't really the problem, what Red Sea Part Two looks like, why India might be the most exposed economy on the planet, and whether this is finally the moment the world starts building around the Middle East rather than through it.

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Timestamps:

(01:02) - Meet Ed Richardson

(01:26) - Why Hormuz Matters

(02:47) - Shipping...

Can't taste, can't smell, half a beer in - Marko puts his best foot forward for today's episode... And somehow it might be one of our best. The lads cover the Iran situation from every angle: why regime collapse is actually scarier than regime change, what a real 1973-style energy crisis looks like if the Strait goes dark, and why nobody - not allies, not neighbors - is rushing to Tehran's rescue. They dive into Trump's escort policy, the rules-based order debate, Ukraine hitting Russian oil infrastructure, and whether any of this even qualifies as a war. There's also...

The US and Israel struck Iran. Khamenei is dead. Marco got the biggest break of his career. And yet... the Islamic Republic lives on. The lads spend this episode digging into why this operation is less transformative than Twitter would have you believe.

History is clear: America doesn't have a great track record of turning regime change into geopolitical wins - Iraq, Libya, Syria, Venezuela... Iran will get a new Supreme Leader, probably a so-called "pragmatist" who was sanctioning protesters six weeks ago, but the operation won't end when Trump decides that it ends. So temper the...

No notes, just two geopolitical degenerates (Jacob and Marko) running a full-court press on the week’s chaos. The lads spar over Trump’s “Board of Peace,” ask whether a U.S. strike on Iran is strategy or pure domestic theater, and map out what escalation could really look like - from drones in the Strait of Hormuz to oil shocks and asymmetric retaliation.

Then... they zoom out: nuclear proliferation in a multipolar world, Europe’s slow strategic awakening in Munich, and whether America’s foreign policy is performance art or hard power. It’s unscripted, blunt, and - annoyin...

You've been writing us questions, thoughts, prayers, and lambasting criticism for months - so today we're finally taking a dive into the inbox. Holy crap there's a lot here. Y'all mentioned The Wire, TDSDS, starting careers in geopolitical analysis, tech nationalism, the balkanization of the internet, and sooooo much more. Tune in to hear it all :) Thanks y'all.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:33) - The Wire

(05:25) - Media Consumption and Bias

(06:46) - Trump Derangement Syndrome and Strategic Thinking

(16:16) - Effective Media Consumption Strategies

(28:23...

The old playbook is dead. Iran isn’t collapsing quietly, Europe is finally admitting unanimity is a fantasy, Japan may be waking up politically and financially, and the UN is drifting toward irrelevance. Macro is no longer about central banks and spreadsheets... it’s about power, coercion, and political risk. If you’re still reading FOMC minutes to understand the world, you’re missing the point entirely.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:47) - Current Events

(02:00) - US-India Trade Deal Analysis

(04:58) - Iran-US Tensions and Potential Conflict

(38:45) - German...

The lads pick up where they left off in last week's episode with bias, plus a break down a chaotic global moment. Jacob and Marko unpack Mark Carney’s Davos speech and Canada’s sudden geopolitical assertiveness, arguing it marks a clean break from the rules-based order. They connect Canada’s stance to Trump’s tariffs, U.S. domestic unrest, China’s internal turmoil, and mounting Middle East tensions—framing the week as evidence that power politics, not norms, now define the global system

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Episode Overview

(01:08) - Current Gl...