Deterrence Down Under
Deterrence Down Under is a production of the NIDS Broadcasting Network and is focused on Australia and deterrence challenges in the Indo-Pacific region.
Alliances, Burden Sharing, and Security in the Indo-Pacific
How should allies share the burden of defense in an increasingly contested security environment? In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, Christine and Carl unpack the strategic implications of a recent speech by U.S. Under Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby and explore what it means for the future of the U.S.-Australia alliance.
The discussion examines alliance responsibilities, deterrence strategies, and the challenges of maintaining regional stability in the Indo-Pacific. From Australia's growing military capabilities and strategic partnerships to debates over burden sharing, missile defense, and military readiness, the conversation highlights how allies can strengthen...
SLCM-N, Missile Defense, and the Future of Indo-Pacific Deterrence
In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, Carl Rhodes and Christine Leah examine one of the most debated developments in modern nuclear strategy: the United States' Sea-Launched Cruise Missile-Nuclear (SLCM-N) program. As geopolitical competition intensifies in the Indo-Pacific, policymakers and defense planners are reassessing how nuclear and conventional capabilities contribute to deterrence, assurance, and regional stability.
Carl and Christine break down what SLCM-N is, why the United States is pursuing the capability, and how it fits into the broader framework of extended nuclear deterrence. They explore the historical role of sea-launched nuclear weapons, the legacy of the...
China's Nuclear Missile Test: Signaling or Routine?
In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, Carl and Christine examine China's recent submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) test and what it reveals about Beijing's evolving approach to nuclear deterrence in the Asia-Pacific.
Was the launch a routine military activity, a strategic signal, or both? Carl and Christine explore the role of transparency, nuclear signaling, and strategic communication among major powers, while discussing the implications for Australia, the United States, and regional allies. They also unpack the diplomatic dynamics unfolding across the Pacific, the challenges posed by emerging missile technologies, and the growing importance of credible deterrence in...
Resilient Australia: Supply Chains, Sovereignty, and Security with Marc Ablong
In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, defense expert Marc Ablong joins the conversation to examine the challenges facing Australia's defense establishment and the reforms needed to strengthen deterrence, resilience, and national preparedness. From acquisition delays and risk-averse processes to supply chain vulnerabilities and sovereign capability,
Ablong offers a candid assessment of what must change to deliver the capabilities Australia needs. The discussion explores the government's efforts to reform defense delivery, the realities of achieving greater self-reliance, and why a whole-of-nation approach is essential to addressing modern security challenges. Ablong argues that organizational restructuring alone is not...
Strategic Reality Check: Australia, AUKUS, and Modern Deterrence with Stephen Kuper
In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, defense analyst Steven Kuper joins the conversation to examine Australia’s evolving strategic posture in an increasingly contested Indo-Pacific. The discussion centers on the implications of AUKUS—the trilateral security partnership reshaping defense cooperation, advanced capabilities, and undersea power in the region—and what it means for Australia’s long-term security and strategic independence.
Cooper explores the tension between Australia’s historic reliance on allies and the growing need for greater self-reliance, highlighting how resilience—across defense, industry, and the economy—has become a core component of national security.
From submari...
Deterrence Down Under: Challenges to Arms Control and Strategic Stability
In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, defense analyst Lowell Schwartz joins Carl and Christine to examine the evolving landscape of nuclear diplomacy among the United States, Russia, and China. As great power competition intensifies without consistent dialogue, Schwartz explores the growing challenges surrounding arms control, transparency, and strategic stability in an increasingly complex multipolar environment.
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Extended Deterrence and Nuclear Sharing in the Indo‑Pacific
In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, hosts Christine and Carl take a deep dive into extended nuclear deterrence, nuclear sharing, and Australia’s evolving defense strategy in an increasingly contested Asia‑Pacific region.
The discussion examines whether nuclear sharing—long debated in Europe—could play a role in Australia’s security posture, and what the strategic, political, and regional consequences might be. From alliance reliability and the credibility of U.S. extended deterrence to the risks and benefits of hosting nuclear weapons on Australian soil, this episode tackles some of the most complex questions facing policymakers today.
...Decoding China’s Influence in the Indo‑Pacific: Strategies and Perspectives
In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, defense analyst Derek Grossman joins the discussion with Carl to unpack how countries across the Indo‑Pacific view—and respond to—China’s growing influence. As Grossman notes, the Indo‑Pacific is far from monolithic, with regional actors pursuing distinct strategies shaped by history, geography, and national interest.
The conversation examines Australia’s evolving defense posture, the implications of AUKUS, and the role of U.S. alliances in shaping regional security. It also explores China’s expanding diplomatic footprint, including the Belt and Road Initiative, alongside concerns over coercion, influence, and strategic...
Deterring China: Military Modernization, A2AD, and the Indo‑Pacific Balance
In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, Christine and Carl examine the accelerating pace of China’s military modernization and what it means for Australia, regional allies, and stability in the Indo‑Pacific. The discussion explores Beijing’s strategic objectives—particularly its anti‑access/area denial (A2AD) approach—and how these capabilities shape deterrence dynamics surrounding Taiwan and U.S. and allied forces operating in the region.
The conversation also highlights Australia’s evolving defense posture, including industrial cooperation with partners such as Germany, the growing importance of alliances, and the challenges posed by operating exquisite but finite mil...
China’s Nuclear Rise and the Indo‑Pacific Security Reckoning
China’s rapid nuclear expansion is reshaping global deterrence—and it’s happening faster than many realize. In this episode, Christine and Carl break down China’s evolving nuclear strategy, from new missile systems and submarine-launched capabilities to alarming tests near Lop Nur. They explore what a growing arsenal—potentially reaching the thousands by the 2030s—means for strategic stability, first‑strike dynamics, and regional security in Australia and the Indo‑Pacific. Essential listening for anyone concerned about the future of nuclear deterrence and global security.
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China’s Vision for the Future Global Order with Dr. Fei-Ling Wang
In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, Carl speaks with Dr. Fei‑Ling Wang about China’s worldview, the Chinese Communist Party’s vision for a new global order, and the strategic implications of China’s military and technological rise. The conversation explores why Taiwan is central to CCP legitimacy, how China seeks influence through both power and institutions, and why long‑term coordination among Western allies is essential to counter Beijing’s ambitions.
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Inside China’s Espionage Enterprise: Risks, Reach, and Responses with Nick Eftimiades
In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, Carl and Christina are joined by renowned counterintelligence expert Nick Eftimiades for a deep dive into the evolving landscape of Chinese espionage. Drawing on decades of research and firsthand experience, the conversation unpacks how China’s intelligence system operates as a whole‑of‑society enterprise—one that incentivizes espionage behavior across state, economic, and social domains.
The discussion explores the organizational structure of Chinese intelligence, the expanding use of technology and social media, and the growing threat of economic and political interference. With a focus on Australia and other middle powers...
Security Shifts: What the U.S. Strategy Means for Australia
Christine and Carl unpack the newest U.S. National Security Strategy and examine what it means for both the United States and Australia. They explore recent trends in defense spending by the U.S. and its allies, analyze how alliance structures shape security in the Indo‑Pacific, and note the absence of AUKUS in the strategy.
The discussion concludes with a candid look at preparedness, public perception of defense priorities, and why sustained investment and ongoing dialogue are essential for long-term security in the Indo‑Pacific region.
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Australia’s Fight Against Violent Extremism with Lachlan Colquhoun
In this compelling episode of Deterrence Down Under, host Carl Rhodes sits down with Lachlan Colquhoun—one of Australia’s leading voices in counterterrorism and countering violent extremism (CVE). They unpack how Australia confronts today’s complex security landscape through a coordinated, whole‑of‑government approach.
Colquhoun offers a candid look at the evolving nature of violent extremism, the challenges of defining emerging threats, and what recent incidents—such as the Bondi Beach attack—reveal about shifts in motivation and behavior.
He also explores how online technologies accelerate radicalization and why community engagement remains essential to prevention...
Resilience and Reality: Australia's Strategic Challenges
In this compelling episode of "Deterrence Down Under," hosts Carl and Christine are joined by Air Vice Marshal John Blackburn to explore Australia's resilience in the face of strategic challenges. From the intricacies of national security to the vulnerabilities in infrastructure and supply chains, Blackburn shares insights from his extensive experience in defense and strategic planning. The discussion delves into the need for a shared national narrative, the impact of political systems on resilience, and practical steps towards a more secure future. Tune in to understand why resilience is not just a buzzword but a critical necessity for Australia's...
Civil Defense and Deterrence: Lessons from the Cold War for Today
In this conversation, Carl and Christine welcome Edward Geist, of RAND Corporation, to explore the concept of civil defense during the Cold War, its evolution, and its implications for modern deterrence strategies. They discuss the goals of civil defense in the US and Soviet Union, differences in their approaches, and lessons that can be applied to contemporary defense planning. The conversation highlights the complexities of preparing for nuclear conflict and the challenges of balancing civil defense with other military priorities.
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Crisis Preparedness: Navigating the Worst Strategic Environment
This episode explores Australia’s most challenging strategic environment since World War II, drawing lessons from history to understand today’s security landscape. Carl and Christine highlight the gap in official crisis preparedness guidance and examine how personal strategies often diverge from government recommendations. With a sense of urgency, they discuss resourcefulness, critical thinking, and the importance of being ready for unexpected events. Listeners will gain insights into why preparedness matters, how historical parallels shape current decisions, and why individual judgment plays a key role in times of uncertainty.
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Balancing Defence Spending to address Australia’s Strategic Environment
In this episode of "Deterrence Down Under," hosts Carl and Christine delve into the complexities of defense spending, particularly focusing on the challenges faced by Australia. They discuss the balance between immediate, near-term, and long-term defense investments, highlighting the strategic decisions involved in allocating resources for current capabilities versus future advancements. The conversation touches on Australia's commitment to the AUKUS pact, the impact of budget constraints on defense readiness, and the importance of missile defense in maintaining national security. They also explore the broader implications of deterrence strategies and the role of integrated defense systems in ensuring stability.
<...The Evolution of Missile Defense Technologies with Frank Rose
In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, Christine and Carl engage with Frank Rose, a prominent figure in geopolitics and national security. The conversation delves into the complexities of missile defense, its historical context, and the evolving challenges posed by modern warfare, including the rise of drone technology. Frank emphasizes the importance of adapting missile defense strategies and technologies to meet future threats, particularly in the context of U.S. alliances and strategic competition with nations like China. The discussion also touches on the future of arms control and the necessity of integrating new technologies into defense strategies.
<...Australian Air Power and Deterrence with Chris McInnes
Carl and Christine explore how Australia can strengthen deterrence through air power—its challenges, strategic options, and evolving force structure. They’re joined by Chris McInnes, Executive Director of the Air Power Institute, to discuss the unique role of air power in securing Australia’s vast maritime environment and examine how emerging technologies like drones and long-range strike platforms might fit into the strategy.
Chris McInnes is Executive Director at the Air Power Institute. He is an air power and national security expert with 25 years of experience in the military, government, and industry and is also a freque...
Public Debate and Australia's Strategic Alliances
In this episode, Carl and Christine examine the role of public debate in Australia’s defense and national security. They discuss alliances—especially Australia’s link to the US—recent Indo-Pacific developments, and the need to explain strategies like AUKUS to the public using Simon Sinek’s Start with Why approach. The episode highlights the importance of open discussion and a whole-of-nation approach in shaping policy.
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History and Australia’s Strategic Culture
Carl and Christine discuss how Australia’s history influences its worldview, its alliances, and its approach to national security strategy. Over the past 80 years, Australia’s contributions to the U.S. alliance have weighed heavily on strategic thought. A new approach, focused on the maritime domain, is needed to effectively shape, deter, and respond to challenges in the Indo-Pacific region and maximise new capabilities from AUKUS.
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Golden Dome Rising: Australia’s Role in a New Missile Defense Era
In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, Carl, Christine, and Natalie are joined by Bob Peters to discuss the implications of the recent NATO summit for Australia, the concept of Golden Dome as a new missile defense strategy, and the evolving threats from global adversaries like China and Russia. The conversation also explores the role of AUKUS in enhancing missile defense capabilities, the importance of technological innovations, and the historical context of missile defense in relation to strategic stability.
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Australia and Extended Nuclear Deterrence
In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, the Carl, Christine, and Natalie discuss the complexities of extended nuclear deterrence in Australia, tracing its historical roots and examining the current strategic environment. They explore the evolution of Australia's nuclear policy, the changing threat landscape from 2012 to today, and the public perception of nuclear deterrence. The conversation also delves into the differences between nuclear strategy in the Pacific and Europe, and the future of deterrence, weighing the merits of nuclear weapons against missile defense systems.
Australia and the Bomb: https://link.springer.com/book/10.1057/9781137477392
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Irregular Warfare: An Indian Perspective
In this conversation, Natalie and Siddhant Hira explore the role of irregular warfare within a broader deterrence strategy, particularly from an Indian perspective. They discuss the challenges of defining irregular warfare, the importance of national security strategies, and how these concepts relate to deterrence in the context of India-China relations. The dialogue also touches on the need for hybrid models of deterrence and the implications of nuclear strategy in modern warfare.
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The Defence Budget, is it enough?
In this solo podcast, Carl has thoughts on the recently released ASPI Cost of Defence report and the discussions in Canberra about its findings. He also shares some insights into who’s advocating for increased defence spending and what new capabilities Australia should be investing in.
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Nuclear Proliferation: A New Era?
In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, Natalie discusses the complexities of nuclear proliferation with Christine and Dr. Peter Layton. The conversation explores whether the US should abandon the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in light of recent global changes, the historical context of nuclear stances, and the implications of nuclear sharing among allies and delves into the normalization of nuclear threats and the need for trust in international alliances.
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Navigating New Challenges: Australia and the Indo-Pacific
In this episode, Carl and Natalie discuss Russia's military activities in the Indo-Pacific, Australia's national security strategies, and the contrasting approaches to deterrence between the Biden and Trump administrations. They explore the implications for Australia and the role of whole-of-government coordination when working with partners and allies to enact deterrence in the region.
Note - Indonesia signed up to the TPNW with the Solomon Islands as of Sep. 2024. This was after Russia flew two nuclear-capable bombers on a patrol mission out of the Manuhua Air Force Base, Indonesia, on what appeared to be an intelligence gathering exercise...
Analysis of Chinese warships deployed to Australia’s region
In today’s bonus episode, Carl goes solo to discusses the deployment of Chinese warships to Australia, their live fire exercise and what it means about deterrence and messaging for China and Australia.
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Growing nuclear deterrence leaders with Dr. Melvin G. Deaile
This episode discusses the mission and importance of the School of Advanced Nuclear Deterrence Studies (SANDS) with director Dr. Deaile. We also explore ways to ensure extended deterrence in the Indo-Pacific and Europe given the growing capabilities of our adversaries.
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Wargaming: A Strategic Tool for Defence with Darren Huxley and John McGarry
This conversation delves into the significance of wargaming in enhancing defence strategies in Australia. The hosts and guests discuss the definitions, types, and structures of wargames, their target audiences, and the emotional engagement they foster in decision-making. They also compare Australia's wargaming practices with those of other countries, emphasizing the role of think tanks and the need for more resources and commitment to wargaming in defence planning.
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The Complexities of Ukraine's Nuclear Legacy
In this episode, Christine and Natalie engage with Dr. Mariana Budjeryn, a nuclear historian, to discuss her book 'Inheriting the Bomb' and the complexities surrounding Ukraine's nuclear disarmament. They explore the historical context of Ukraine's nuclear arsenal, the narratives surrounding its disarmament, and the implications of security assurances from major powers. Mariana shares her personal reflections on the ongoing war in Ukraine, the challenges faced by nuclear facilities under occupation, and the lessons learned for international security and cooperation.
Nuclear Strategy: Pakistan's Perspective with Anum A Khan
In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, the hosts engage with Anum A Khan, an expert on Pakistan's nuclear strategy. The conversation explores Pakistan's historical context in nuclear deterrence, its strategic responses to India, and the complexities of its geopolitical relationships, particularly with China and India. The discussion also delves into the effectiveness of nuclear weapons in maintaining peace, the importance of communication and confidence-building measures, and the need for dialogue in resolving conflicts.
