Maley Market Strategy Podcast

In this week's piece, we discuss why the rising stress in the credit markets...and the growing evidence that the ROI on the massive AI investments will take much longer to achieve...are coming together right now to signal that important top in the stock market is just around the corner.

This does not mean that it will crash tomorrow, but a significant decline is set to begin between now and Thanksgiving (by early 2027 at the latest).  Therefore, investors should act accordingly...and we discuss where they can protect themselves.

In this week's podcast, Mary and I touch on the fact that it is no longer the lousy "timing tools" that are raising warning flags for stocks.  NOW, we're seeing developments...especially in the credit markets...that are very GOOD timing tools...starting to flash red.

When you combine this...with the growing cracks in the outlook for the ROI on AI...and there are strong reasons to think that an important stock market top will come sooner rather than later.  

In this week's podcast, we discuss why the growing (and broadening) stress in the credit market is a major warning flag for stock investors.  It's not just the rise in long-term sovereign rates around the globe.  It has spread to many different aspects of the credit markets...and thus it is a much bigger problem than most pundits on Wall Street are relaying.  

We also discuss the recent comments from OpenAI (which are still very disappointing...even though they tried to walk them back).....We also discuss the action in the financial/bank stocks and why the rece...

In this week's podcast, we discuss why the developments over the past two weeks in the credit markets have raised the odds CONSIDERABLY that a top in the stock market of some importance is just around the corner.  There might be enough liquidity in the system to hold things off until after the midterm election, but the warning flags are MUCH too numerous to ignore.

In fact, the fact that more people on Wall Street are not warning about this possibility is ridiculous.  The evidence has become too compelling and too widespread to overlook any longer.  

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In this week's we discuss whether the recent renewed rally in the AI industry can continue...and whether it can offset the (still) very high price of oil...and the extremely strong rise in long-term interest rates......Given what is coming out of the Fed...and out of Iran...it doesn't look like we're going to get much relief soon on either of these fronts......Also, we discuss whether the recent move in Bitcoin constitutes a real breakout.......No matter what happens over the near-term, the fact that we now how more than a half dozen developments which usually...

In this week's piece, we discuss how the are a half dozen different signals...which usually develop at/near an important top in the market...are coming to a head right now. Therefore, investors need to avoid being overly complacent over the last 3.5 months of the year......We also discuss which areas...and which stocks...should do quite well during this upcoming time of uncertainty.

In this week's piece, we discuss why bond yields are poised for a near-term decline...and that oil prices are in the same condition.  Therefore, investors should be careful about bearish bets on the bond market and bullish bets on the energy market...but only over the near-term.
We also discuss why the upcoming election is becoming more important than usual for investors...and why they need to look at certain specific stocks and groups in order to take advantage of these developments over the coming months.......We actually took a break from talking about the tech sector, b...

In this week's edition, we discuss how Kevin Warsh's comments in Jackson Hole should not just be seen as hinting towards a more hawkish stance by the Fed, but he also told investors that the "Fed put" will only be used during times of crisis in the future.  In other words, he's going to let the markets trade on their own much more than several of his predecessors have done over the past 15 years.  We also discuss the continued divergence between the S&P 500 and the semiconductor stocks...and why that is a yellow flag for investors as we he...

In this week's episode, we discuss why why Secretary Bessent's new proposals to help push Treasury yields lower is a sign that the budget deficit has now grown to a level where it is making it much more difficult for authorities to control those yields.....We also highlight how Chairman Warsh is unlikely going to hold investors' hands to the degree they'd like him to going forward.....On top of this, we also discuss the importance of NVDA's earnings for the broader stock market......We also discuss the breakout in the precious metals...and how it should continue, BUT...

This week’s podcast focused on the growing challenges facing the bond market and the broader implications for risk assets. We discussed whether the administration’s recent move to become more involved in buying U.S. Treasury bonds is a desperate attempt to support the market, while emphasizing that rising long-term interest rates are about much more than inflation—they also reflect massive Treasury and corporate debt supply and enormous budget deficits in the U.S., Japan, France, the U.K., and elsewhere.

We also examined the troubling underperformance of the high-yield market, which could be an import...

In this week's podcast, we highlight why the recent bounce in the tech sector (and thus the stock market) could turn out to be merely something that is working off its oversold condition...and not the beginning of a new leg to the bull market......We also discuss why the rise in long-term bond yields is something that should stay with us...and why the recent criticism of new Fed Chairman Warsh is way off base.  (The Street needs to adjust to him...not the other way around.  Investors and economist have become too spoiled by the hand-holding by th...

In this week's Podcast, we discussed the implications of the newest cracks in the wall of the bullish scenario for the stock market......This does not mean that the market cannot see a very-short-term bounce soon.  However, as these cracks get bigger and become more numerous, it's creating the kind of "set up" which could be followed by a much deeper decline in risk assets in the coming months than most people think is possible right now.  

In this week's edition, Matt and Mary discuss how the recent "sell the news" reaction from many tech companies is spreading to other areas of the stock market this earnings season.  This is taking place at a time when the equity markets in Asia are seeing some significant cracks...and global long-term yields are pushing higher once again.....This is also taking place at a time when the major averages (and the tech ETFs/indices) are testing key support levels.  Therefore, the action over the next 1-2 weeks is going to be extremely important......That said, there are a co...

In this week's podcast, Mary and I discuss how there are many too many companies whose stocks are trading lower...frequently much lower...after they report earnings/guidance.  This is taking place for the stock of companies whose earnings/guidance were excellent...as well as those whose stocks have not rallied recently (and thus not "priced in" the good news.......We also discuss how the financial stocks are the one group that is the exception to this trend right now...and what to look for from specific stocks in this sector.....On top of this, we discuss the geopolitical c...

In this week's episode, we discuss why the fact that the MAGS Mag 7 ETF has fallen into correction territory is a big problem for the stock market.  Yes, there is some more good news on the chip group, but there are even some cracks showing up in that group.....Therefore, investors will need to remain extremely nimble going forward......HOWEVER, since the trend for the market is still higher, we also discuss some of the groups (and specific stocks) which should benefit this summer from a "rotational" move...if the rally continues in Q3.  

In this week's podcast, we discuss the how the proposed deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is something that has likely already been priced into the market.  However, if it quickly becomes evident that the market can rally further...through a "rotation" move, we have several areas that we believe can outperform......We also discuss how that change at the top of the Federal Reserve could/should have a big impact on the markets going forward.  More than anything else, it's likely going to indicate that the Fed will be more focused on inflation...and less focused on he...

In this week's podcast, we discuss how the delayed reaction to Broadcom's earnings last week...and the news that more data center projects are getting delayed/cancelled...are the kinds of cracks which could be signaling some significant weakness soon in the AI related stocks.....We also discuss the key levels to keep an eye on in the tech sector to watch...which, if broken, will signal an important change in trend......On top of this, we discuss the way the Middle East problem just won't go away...as well as the new developments in long-term yields (and in...

In this week's episode, Mary and I discuss how this extremely narrow the stock market continues to be, but that if we continue to makes some great picks (like I have over the past two months), one can still make money some nice profits..........HOWEVER, we also have to be very careful about betting on a broad rebound.  Also, we like stocks that have been beaten down...and are just beginning to breakout...over the ones that have seen huge runs over the past month or two.  (The chip stock index is now just as overbought as it was at...

In this week's podcast, Mary and I argue that since the stock market never priced in the huge run up in oil prices this spring...a decline in crude prices is not going to help the stock market rally a lot further.  Instead, it is going to depend on continued flow of net liquidity into the system.  

This CAN take place, so we're not turning wildly bearish.  However, given that the earnings growth for the vast majority of S&P companies is mediocre, the issue of earnings growth is not playing the kind of bullish role that the...

In this week's podcast, Mary and I discuss the fact that an important change in trend has taken place for long-term Treasury yields.  This is particularly worrisome...because of the recent significant weakness in the high yield bond market as well.  On top of these two issues, the private credit market is heading into its next "redemption" season for private credit.  Therefore, the odds that the stock market will see a material pullback soon are rising......We also highlight how the issue of "gamma" has helped the stock market rally over the past 6-7 weeks...but "gamma"...and other lev...

In this week's edition, we discuss why the current rally in the stock market is being fueled more by excess liquidity than positive earnings growth.  The earnings growth IS good, but it's also isolated to just a handful of stocks. 

We also highlight several stocks and groups which should takeover the leadership role in this rally...from some of the high flying tech names that have become extremely expensive and extremely overbought.  

We also discuss an area of the credit market (which is not private credit) which is showing signs of stress...and could create prob...

In this week's podcast, we talk about the idea that although stronger earnings growth is playing a key role in the stock market advance...there is another issue that is even more important.  We discuss whether this can continue for many months like it did last year......We also talk about the stocks which are getting ahead of themselves and which ones are poised to breakout.....Finally, we touch on on strategy that should help investors if the market hits a speed bump soon.

In this week's podcast, we talk about our concerns with the fact that the tech stocks (especially the chips) are getting quite overbought at a time when bond yields are back at their 2026 highs...and oil prices are doing the same.....We also discuss how certainly areas of the market should outperform before long...after getting beaten down recently.  

In this week's edition, we spend a lot of time discussing the misconceptions about what is driving the stock market right now.  We are only a few weeks away from a major turning point in the war in the Middle East.....How strong are earnings?....Which stocks will outperform going forward?  Find out in this week's Podcast!

The global economy is already looking at some real shortages of key commodities.  If the blockade lasts for any material amount of time (just a few weeks), it will create the kind of serious shortages that will create a global shutdown.  This does not mean we'll see a repeat of the sudden pandemic crash of 2020, but it will still be serious.  Therefore, we expect the President to get a deal done with Iran soon......The markets are already sniffing this out, so they are rallying again, but we won't see the kind of sustained rebound we saw last year (aft...

In this week's episode, we touch on the thought that since the President cannot flip the switch and change on the market reacts to the war in the Middle East (like he did last year with the tariff issue), trying to "jawbone" the market is not going to have the same kind of lasting impact this year.

We also highlight how the issue of "shortages" is going to become a problem soon...and why we think there is one sector which should provide a win/win situation for investors over the coming weeks/months.

Finally...

In this week's edition, we discuss the difference between what was going on in the markets at this point last year compared to now.  The President cannot flip a switch like he did last year...and there are significant questions about how far Israel and Iran will go to meet their goals.....We also discuss how the private credit market is not something that is going to go away......Finally, we touch on our belief that the downside risks in the marketplace right now are quite a big larger than the upside potential.

The real goal of the war in the Middle East is to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities and remove their uranium.  This will take time, so the war will continue...and oil prices will remain high......We also discuss the broadening stress in the credit markets...as well as which stocks (and other risk assets) that should outperforming going forward. 

As much as the price of oil is extremely important to the economy and the markets, we also have a credit market that is experiencing growing stress.  We also have headwinds surrounding the profitability of the AI industry.  Therefore, the upside potential for the stock market is limited and stock selection & sector selection will be critical going forward.  We cover these and other issues this week...including which stocks/sectors should outperform going forward.

The reaction in the stock market to the war in Iran has been quite benign.  However, with the issues surrounding AI still out there...and the level of stress rising in the credit markets...investors need to guard against becoming complacent.....We talk about these issues...and which stocks and groups should outperform going forward...it this week's podcast.

In this week's podcast, we discuss the impact of Nvidia's earnings and why the chip stock remain extremely important for the rest of the stock market.  We also touch on why we remain bullish on the energy stocks...and we review the other groups (and individual stocks) which we like over the coming months.....Finally, we spend a lot of time why investors are too complacent about both the headwinds facing both the AI industry...AND the rising stress in the credit markets.  (Ignore Jamie Dimon's warnings at your own risk.)

In this week’s edition, we discuss how much of an impact the crash in Bitcoin had on other risk assets…and whether that impact will last. We also touch on out outlook on precious metals (which has been spot-on for many, many months)….We also talk about the situation with Iran…and what that will mean for the energy stocks…..Finally, we discuss why we believe that although the Trump Administration cares very much about the stock market, they might not care as much over the near-term.

With silver and gold, we were very bullish...very early...and that worked well.  We were also spot-on in looking for a pullback recently.  This week, we discuss out outlook going forward on the precious metals.....We also discuss our top picks in the energy sector...as well as some strong picks for the longer-term.....Finally, we touch on our unique outlook for several different markets over the next 3-4 months.

In this week's edition, we touch on how this week's earnings from the four Mag 7 companies that report will be important.  We also touch on some key names would should outperform going forward.  However, our focus in on the dangers that exist in the marketplace from the developments in the global fixed income and currency markets.  

In this week's edition, we discuss how the breakout in long-term bond yields in the US (and other countries...like Japan) are raising the risks in the stock market.  This could create a similar correction to what we saw last February/March.  The geopolitical uncertainty is not helping this situation.....We talk about how the "rotation" issue in the marketplace will likely playout over the coming weeks and months as well.

In this week's edition, we discussed the implications for the markets of the new developments on the political front (between the Administration & Fed Chair Powell), and on the geopolitical front (Venezuela, Iran, etc.)  These issues could should create a sizeable increase in volatility rather soon.  It should also help one particular stock outperform in 2026.

We also discussed why the bond market stands at a critical level...and why stocks will need a VERY good earning season (given that the expectations for earnings have become so elevated).....We also touch on several other specific stocks which should outperform in...

In this week's episode, we discuss why it is quite unlikely that the tech stocks will provide the kind of leadership that it has in recent years.  More importantly, we touch on the groups which should takeover that leadership (plus a few individual stocks as well)......We also discuss why the bond market will be extremely important next year.  Just because short term rates are falling, it does not mean that long-term yields will fall as well.

In this week's episode, we discuss why one important group of investors will not be as reluctant as they are right now to lower their exposure to the AI industry in a much more meaningful way in the new year...as it is becoming more and more evident (obvious) that the profitability of AI is n ot going to be as strong or as broad as investors had been thinking......We also highlight several groups (and stocks) which should benefit from any rotation out of the tech sector in 2026.

The "set up" for the bond market and the stock market are very different as we head into the Fed's December meeting.  Why discuss why we believe this divergence will end very soon...and while it will have profound implications for both asset classes......We also touch on several specific stocks which we believe will outperform in the months ahead.

In this week's edition, we discuss why one key asset class should outperform all others...over BOTH the near-term AND the longer-term...and who the winners and losers will be from these moves.  We also review the recent results from the Black Friday sales and highlight which stocks should benefit from today's consumer trends.  Finally, we talk about which stocks should do well if the market sees a Santa Claus rally.