Know Your Risk Podcast

October 20, 2026 - The next catalyst for AI stocks might come from the oil market. Chase Taylor explains why an end to the Iran war—and the relief it could bring to energy prices, inflation and borrowing costs—could change the outlook for companies financing the AI buildout.

Flying solo, Chase lays out why AI exposure could serve as a hedge for an energy-heavy portfolio, even after he questioned the trade at higher prices. He digs into both sides of CoreWeave: debt costs that threaten shareholder returns, and customer contracts, continued demand for computing power and potential support from Nvid...

October 19, 2026 - Believing AI will change the world is one thing. Knowing which stocks will reward investors is another. Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor explain why they can be enthusiastic about the technology while questioning whether today’s AI infrastructure winners belong in a buy-and-hold portfolio.

CoreWeave brings that tension into focus: strong demand for computing power can coexist with expensive borrowing and a fragile business model. Zach and Chase discuss why they favor trading parts of the AI buildout, what makes biotech a different long-term proposition, and the danger of buying the next Cisco while expecting the ne...

October 16, 2026 - Zach and Chase unpack a market that seemed to ignore mounting risks—until volatility finally jumped. Zach makes a candid confession: they cut their VIX exposure in half the day before the surge. They discuss oil pushing toward $100, rates and options positioning, then look ahead to Big Tech earnings and the question hanging over the AI buildout: can the returns justify the enormous capital it requires?

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October 15, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss the tension inside the AI boom: demand for compute is rising, but token prices are falling as the industry keeps investing in more capacity. They examine what that could mean for hyperscalers, leveraged neoclouds, and the economics of the buildout. They also discuss the bond market’s response to hot inflation data and the risks of shorter-term Treasury borrowing.

October 14, 2026 — AI-token prices are falling even as volume grows. Is that evidence the technology is getting cheaper to use—or a warning for businesses carrying huge infrastructure costs? Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor weigh the pressure on AI economics against the possibility that, if demand and forecasts hold, the AI trade is still underpriced. They also discuss the hot CPI print, the bond market’s unexpected move, and war-related oil and shipping risks.

Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com.

October 14, 2026 — President Trump says inflation can pay down the national debt. Rudy Havenstein calls inflation “a super regressive default,” arguing that it shifts the cost onto ordinary households while the wealthy are better positioned to benefit.

Zach Abraham and Rudy discuss what official inflation measures miss, the Fed’s role in supporting asset prices, rising wealth inequality, and why Rudy sees “too big to fail” and “too big to jail” as connected problems.

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October 13, 2026 — The biggest technology stocks continue to dominate the market, while small caps, rate-sensitive businesses and parts of the real economy are telling a very different story.

Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor break down an increasingly divided market: the Magnificent Seven reaching another record while small caps lag, crowded positioning between the Nasdaq and Russell 2000, and why Chase says he’s becoming more bullish on parts of the AI trade after months of valuation concerns.

They also debate the enormous spending behind the AI buildout, what investors may be overlooking in hyperscaler economics, whether chip earnings can...

October 12, 2026 — Apple is now worth roughly $4.5 trillion and trading around 44 times earnings. Zach Abraham says he’s struggling to make the fundamental math work.Zach and Chase Taylor break down the disconnect between Apple’s enormous valuation, its recent revenue growth, buybacks and capital spending — and debate why investors continue treating the company almost like a safe-haven asset despite a valuation that would historically have been associated with much faster growth.

They also examine continued disruptions in global energy markets, shrinking oil flows through the Strait, pressure on strategic petroleum reserves, why oil remains a major driver of rates an...

October 9, 2026 — Gold, miners and other real-asset trades are beginning to behave differently, even on days when the U.S. dollar is holding up. Zach Abraham says the pattern is starting to resemble a return of the “debasement trade.”

Zach and Chase Taylor explain what that actually means: assets that can benefit when investors become increasingly concerned about inflation, government spending and the long-term purchasing power of fiat currencies. They also discuss why today’s cycle looks unusually distorted by massive AI investment, why capital is flowing into parts of Asia at extraordinary rates, and whether investors should be looking...

October 8, 2026 — Artificial-intelligence spending has become so enormous that Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor believe it increasingly belongs in the macroeconomic conversation — not just the technology conversation.

Back together in the studio, Zach and Chase examine how massive AI capital spending may be contributing to economic growth and inflation, and why any meaningful slowdown in that spending could eventually matter for bond yields.

They also dig into new questions surrounding OpenAI’s revenue trajectory and financing needs, the widening gap between enormous AI investment and the revenue required to support it, and why the eventual economics of the hy...

October 7, 2026 — Inflation can reduce the real burden of government debt. But that doesn't make the debt disappear — it changes who bears the cost.

Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor are finally back together, and they begin by unpacking the idea that inflation can effectively help governments manage enormous debt loads by reducing the future purchasing power of the currency used to repay them.

That discussion expands into what Zach and Chase see as the next phase of the monetary and fiscal cycle: persistently high borrowing costs, fiscal dominance, the possibility of increasingly unconventional policy responses, and why inve...

October 6, 2026 — WTI crude is back below $90, but farther-out oil contracts are still pushing higher. Chase Taylor explains why the futures curve may be telling a different story from the headline price — and what persistent supply and geopolitical risk could mean for the market further down the road.

Chase breaks down why May and December 2027 oil pricing remains firm even as front-month crude has cooled, then updates the situation in the Strait, where tanker disruptions and changing flows continue to complicate the energy picture.

He also looks at the renewed nuclear-power trade following the Google–Constellation deal, washou...

October 5, 2026 — Treasury yields have surged above 5%, yet major stock indexes are still trading near record highs. Chase Taylor explains why those two things may not be as contradictory as they first appear.

Chase reframes the rate story by looking at what has happened to nominal economic growth and corporate earnings at the same time. His argument: higher rates are already hurting rate-sensitive parts of the economy, but growth and earnings have accelerated enough that the broader equity market may still be able to absorb the pressure.He also breaks down the strength in the dollar, new highs in me...

September 30, 2026 — Stocks spent much of the day higher before selling off sharply into the close. Zach Abraham explains why he pays particular attention to the final stretch of trading — when institutional activity becomes more dominant — and why today’s reversal stood out against a backdrop of rapidly rising interest rates.

Zach breaks down why the speed of the move in Treasury yields matters, why higher borrowing costs and energy prices remain a difficult combination for businesses, and why he remains cautious even while major stock indexes continue trading near their highs.

He also discusses market breadth, Apple an...

September 29, 2026 — Interest rates have moved sharply higher, but the stock market still appears remarkably calm. Zach Abraham argues that underneath the headline indexes, the damage from higher borrowing costs is already showing up.

Zach breaks down why higher rates matter far beyond the bond market — from housing and commercial real estate to refinancing costs, private equity, private credit and corporate cash flows. His concern isn’t that every one of those areas is about to collapse. It’s that higher financing costs mechanically reduce asset values and put pressure on businesses even when the stock market doesn’t immediatel...

September 28, 2026 — Big Tech is pouring extraordinary amounts of capital into artificial intelligence. But does spending the most money mean capturing the most value?Zach Abraham looks at the AI boom through a different lens after a conversation with the founder of a fast-growing AI startup. Zach argues that smaller, more focused companies may have advantages the hyperscalers don't: greater agility, clearer economics, products built directly around consumer needs, and dramatically less capital required to reach profitability.The founder shared private growth projections with Zach that he uses as one data point — not proof — in his broader argument that the eventual winner...

September 24, 2026 — Stocks finished roughly flat even as Treasury yields surged, oil climbed and the dollar strengthened. Zach Abraham breaks down one of the strangest market sessions he's seen lately — and explains why he puts more weight on the bond market when stocks and bonds start telling completely different stories. Zach examines why equity markets appeared willing to look through worsening macro conditions, what today's moves may say about expectations surrounding the Middle East, and why weak market breadth continues to concern him even when the headline indexes look resilient. He also discusses Meta's continued strength, why he's putting much of Big...

September 23, 2026 — The Federal Reserve raised rates last week, but some of the biggest market reactions may only now be showing up. The 10-year Treasury yield surged above 5.1% today to its highest level since 2007 as stocks moved lower. Zach Abraham explains why he believes markets have become slower and stranger at digesting major Fed decisions — often producing an initial reaction, settling down, and then making the more consequential move days later. He breaks down the jump in Treasury yields, the strengthening dollar, what those moves could mean for equities, and why he thinks investors should be cautious about trusting the first mark...

September 22, 2026 — Big Tech built some of the most profitable businesses in history on network effects, enormous margins and powerful competitive moats. Zach Abraham argues the AI arms race may be changing that economic model. As Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft and others pour extraordinary amounts of capital into AI, they're increasingly competing directly with one another for the same customers, compute and products. Zach explains why that could mean more spending, less pricing power and a business model that begins to look surprisingly similar to a commodity producer. He also discusses today's market action, international valuations, the latest moves in oil an...

September 21, 2026 — The Nasdaq closed at a record high today, helped by a huge rally in Meta. But underneath the headline index, something much less bullish was happening: more Nasdaq stocks were hitting 52-week lows than 52-week highs. Meta finished up roughly 11%, while the Nasdaq gained about 2.3% to a record close. Zach Abraham breaks down what that divergence says about market breadth, concentration, and the extraordinary influence of a small group of mega-cap technology companies. He also explains why the warning deserves attention without automatically treating it as proof that a crash is coming. Zach also discusses the latest moves in oi...

September 18, 2026 — A normal middle-class life has become dramatically more expensive. Zach Abraham looks beyond the latest inflation print and asks a bigger question: what happened to the relationship between wages and the cost of housing, education, everyday life, and asset ownership? Zach argues that the affordability problem is much deeper than one bad year of inflation. He connects stagnant wages, housing affordability, asset-price inflation, wealth concentration, and the policy decisions that shaped the post-financial-crisis economy. The result, in his view, is an economy where rising costs hit people without assets hardest while those who already own assets have far more ab...

September 17, 2026 — Oil prices are pulling back even as geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated. Zach Abraham explains why the market’s surprisingly calm reaction may be sending an important signal about what investors expect next. Zach breaks down the latest moves in oil and interest rates, why crude may be looking through the headlines toward some kind of resolution, and why the downside could become just as violent as the upside if the geopolitical picture changes quickly. He also discusses the Federal Reserve’s latest rate hike, why he remains skeptical that long-term yields have peaked, and where he sees the more attrac...

September 16, 2026 — The Federal Reserve raised rates again today. But Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor argue the bigger story may be the borrowing costs businesses still haven’t had to refinance into yet. They examine the coming refinancing cycle, why loans written in the cheap-money era may reset at dramatically higher rates, and where that pressure could begin showing up in construction, housing, small businesses and corporate credit. Zach and Chase also break down the Fed’s new economic projections, the outlook for additional rate hikes, why the historical small-cap playbook may be changing, and the latest developments in global oil flows...

September 15, 2026 — The 10-year Treasury is back around 5%, borrowing costs are at levels not seen in nearly two decades, and Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor are asking the question that usually follows: what breaks first? They examine where higher rates are already creating stress — from housing and commercial real estate to indebted small caps and AI infrastructure companies — and why a higher cost of capital may expose weaknesses that were much easier to hide when money was cheap. Zach and Chase also discuss rapidly tightening oil markets, rising diesel prices, geopolitical supply disruptions and the increasingly difficult choice facing the Federal Reserv...

September 14, 2026 - Memory and chip stocks got hit hard today (DRAM down 7%, semiconductors down nearly 5%) after frontier AI labs signaled they may be slowing development — even as the hyperscalers actually funding that buildout (Google, Meta, Microsoft) traded up 2-3% the same day. Chase breaks down why that split makes sense, and why he thinks the slowdown talk isn't just competitive posturing or a bid for a government bailout: independent analysis of a recent incident found AI agents built their own communication channel through normal files, without being programmed to, and tried to cover their tracks after cheating on a test — beha...

September 11, 2026 - Oil dropped 1.7% today even after Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline went offline (3.5 million barrels a day of exports) and confirmation that Saudi production just hit a 36-year low — supply news that should have sent prices higher. Zach and Chase break down why: Gulf states are sitting down directly with Iran in Oman on Monday, going around Washington, after it was reported that MBS personally called Trump asking the U.S. to bomb the Houthis and was turned down. They lay out a theory for what's actually happening — that Trump has quietly abandoned his seven-month "two more weeks" promise for the...

September 10, 2026 - Oil ripped nearly 7% today, WTI pressing $103 and Brent hitting $108, on news that Saudi output has fallen to a 36-year low and Houthi forces have seized a coastal city and multiple Red Sea islands near the Bab-el-Mandeb strait — putting them in position to threaten shipping through it more easily than at any point in this conflict. Zach and Chase break down why almost nobody has noticed that an oil-sector position has quietly outperformed semiconductors this year, even as AI dominates every headline — and why that stat stopped being a curiosity today: mortgages crossed 7%, diesel crossed $6 a gallon nationwide, and the...

September 9, 2026 - The jobs numbers are solid, prices are up, and the labor market's strong — by every normal measure the Fed should be raising rates, not talking about cutting them. But Chase makes the case that the reason those numbers look strong at all comes down to one narrow input: AI capital expenditure. He estimates it at 3 to 3.5% of the entire US economy this year, against real GDP growth of roughly 4 to 4.5% — take it away, he says, and growth is at best flat, more likely negative. Also today: Treasury Secretary Bessent's $6 billion stock buyback plan appears to have backfired (bond yiel...

September 8, 2026 — Could gold eventually reach $10,000? Zach Abraham explains why he believes today's inflationary cycle may have much further to run — and why investors may be preparing for the wrong kind of risk. Zach and Chase Taylor discuss why the playbook built around deflationary crashes may no longer fit today's fiscal and monetary environment, how persistent inflation changes the role of cash and hard assets, and what could eventually signal that the cycle is ending. They also examine oil nearing $100, rising diesel prices, escalating supply risks in the Middle East, the outlook for interest rates, and why strong nominal growth makes the...

September 4, 2026 — Could Nvidia really become a $10 trillion company? Maybe. But Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor argue that's not the only question investors should be asking. They break down the risk-reward behind today's biggest AI trade, why an extraordinary company can still become difficult to justify at an extraordinary valuation, and where they see more attractive opportunities outside the market's most crowded names. Zach and Chase also discuss a surprisingly strong jobs report and what it means for the Fed, record seasonal gasoline and diesel prices, improving Chinese oil-demand signals, and why the traditional 60/40 portfolio may have been built for an ec...

September 3, 2026 — The S&P 500 has long been treated as a simple way to broadly own the U.S. market. But is that still what investors are actually buying? Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor examine how extreme concentration in technology, semiconductors and communications has changed the makeup of major U.S. indexes — and why relying on the S&P's historical performance may mean comparing today's index with something that no longer looks the same. They also discuss rising signs of services inflation, liquidity and Treasury policy, stretched U.S. valuations, oil-market pressure and growing geopolitical risk in Europe. Schedule your complimentary Know...

September 2, 2026 — The AI data-center buildout is accelerating, but what are local communities actually getting in return? Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor break down the economics behind the data-center boom, why enormous investments in power and infrastructure don't necessarily translate into enormous employment, and why state and local governments are increasingly asking harder questions about the tradeoff. They also discuss market inefficiencies, opportunities created when entire sectors get sold indiscriminately, renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, oil flows and the growing pressure higher energy prices could put on interest rates. Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.co

September 1, 2026 — Could diesel prices be headed toward $6? Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor break down the renewed escalation around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, why ship-to-ship oil transfers may have become much more difficult again, and why refined products could become an even bigger problem than crude oil itself. They also discuss rising Treasury yields, the pressure higher borrowing costs are putting on businesses and consumers, weakness beneath the surface of the economy, and where volatility may be creating opportunities in precious metals. Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

August 31, 2026 — Chase Taylor explains why Iran’s apparent ability to threaten smaller ship-to-ship oil transfers could sharply reduce the volume moving through the Strait—from roughly 7 million barrels a day toward 2–3 million.Chase examines why that would be such a serious shock for an oil market already relying on Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, declining floating inventories and a limited onshore inventory cushion. He also discusses the renewed exchange of attacks involving Iran and why the market may have far less protection against another supply disruption than headline oil prices suggest.
Later, Chase covers the 10-year Treasury yield reaching a new high...

August 28, 2026 — Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor discuss Kevin Warsh’s hawkish message, why a traditional Taylor Rule framework could imply as many as eight rate hikes, and why the Fed may now be trapped between persistent inflation and the economic damage caused by tighter policy. They also examine the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz, Canada’s potential incentive to wait out the U.S. midterm elections, escalating Russia-NATO risks and the dangerous imbalance between missile production and interceptor capacity. Later, Zach and Chase ask a practical portfolio question: What might actually protect investors during a low-probability, high-impact geopolitical shock...

August 27, 2026 — Gold-mining stocks have rallied nearly 50% from their mid-July lows. Zach Abraham explains why some miners may still offer unusually compelling value—and why a rising stock price does not necessarily mean the underlying opportunity has disappeared. Zach walks through how replacement-cost economics can expose hidden value in mining companies, why strong assets and reserves can provide room to be wrong, and why “buying the dip” only makes sense when the valuation supports the decision. He also discusses Nvidia’s latest results, why traditional bond-market signals have become increasingly difficult to interpret, rebounds across several beaten-down software stocks, international markets and additi...

August 26, 2026 - Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor discuss why revolutionary technologies can still produce enormous investment bubbles—and why the unprecedented buildout surrounding artificial intelligence may eventually face the same problem. Chase explains why capital-spending booms throughout history tend to overshoot demand, while Zach examines Nvidia's increasingly complex web of investments and financing across the AI ecosystem. They discuss what could happen if today's extraordinary margins begin to compress and why enormous amounts of future supply could become a problem much faster than investors expect. Plus, Zach and Chase revisit Treasury's intervention in the bond market, Stanley Druckenmiller's warning, America's gr...

August 25, 2026 - Chase Taylor discusses billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller's public criticism of recent Treasury policy—and why Chase believes the warning deserves far more attention than the controversy over how the op-ed was written. Chase examines Treasury's attempts to influence the bond market, the risk of escalating intervention when markets refuse to cooperate, and why using crisis-era tools when there is no crisis could create problems of its own. Plus, Chase breaks down the latest moves in oil, China's response to economic pressure surrounding Iran, mounting inflation risks and what he'll be watching from the Fed later this week.

August 24, 2026 - Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor discuss what increasingly aggressive Treasury intervention in the bond market could mean for interest rates, inflation and the U.S. dollar. Chase explains why efforts to suppress long-term yields may work mechanically—but could create major consequences elsewhere through inflation, currency weakness and shorter-duration government financing. Zach and Chase also examine the escalating trade dispute with Canada, the economic relationship between the two countries, the latest developments involving Iran, and why recent policy moves have them questioning what policymakers may be seeing beneath the surface.

August 21, 2026 - Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor discuss why the Treasury's increasingly visible concern about long-term interest rates may be exposing a much deeper problem with U.S. debt, deficits and economic policy. They examine why attempts to suppress bond yields could ultimately lead to more monetary intervention, what rising oil and inflation pressures mean for policymakers, and why decades of short-term thinking have left the U.S. increasingly vulnerable in everything from government finances to energy, manufacturing and defense. Plus, Zach and Chase discuss geopolitical risks surrounding Iran and Russia, the growing importance of real assets, and why the...