The Trivium China Podcast
Trivium China is an analysis firm that specializes in monitoring Chinese government policy. From our offices in Beijing, Shanghai, and DC, we break down Beijing's latest moves on the economy, technology, energy, climate, and agriculture.
Ep 82 - Another grim month for the Chinese economy
China’s July macro data just landed, and the title of our monthly macro note says it all: “A Grim Picture.”
Consumption, investment, and property all deteriorated further last month – and the two props that supported the economy in the first half of the year are now fading fast.On this episode, Trivium China podcast host Andrew Polk sits down with Joe Peissel (Lead Macro Analyst) to unpack:
How July’s slowdown was broad-based, across nearly every metric that matters – and why growth looks even worse than the headlines suggestHow the K-shaped economy has...Ep 81 - The AI loophole Washington can’t afford to close
Chinese companies can’t legally buy the most advanced US-made AI chips, so they’re renting them instead – from data centers in Thailand, Malaysia, and beyond – completely legally.
US policymakers know about the issue – but several years into the implementation of export controls on advanced chips, they still haven’t closed it.And there’s a reason for that.On this episode of the Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk sits down with Tom Nunlist (Associate Director, Tech Practice, Shanghai) to unpack:
How Kimi K3’s release forced Washington to confront a loophole in expo...Ep 80 - The China chokepoints nobody's watching
When it comes to China’s key nodes of economic leverage, rare earths get all the attention – because they’re the cheapest, easiest lever China has to pull.
But the more durable – and future – points of leverage are already hiding in plain sight, in hundreds of intermediate goods most people never think about.
Gerard DiPippo, Director of Global Macro at Eurasia Group, returns to the pod as our first ever two-time guest, joined by Dinny McMahon and Cory Combs, to unpack it.On this episode, host Andrew Polk sits down with Gerard, Dinny, and...
Ep 79 - Beijing stops playing coy
On August 5th, China dropped a new batch of retaliatory economic measures against various US entities.
And this time, officials did something they rarely do – naming exactly which US actions they were responding to and why.On this episode of the Trivium China Podcast, Andrew Polk sits down with Cory Combs (Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research) to unpack:
What exactly landed in MofCom’s four-part policy package – from countersanctions on US biotech and compliance firms to China’s first ever foreign-trade national security investigationWhy this round of retaliation was aimed sq...Ep 78 - China's secret weapon isn't subsidies, it's pain tolerance
US policymakers are constantly discussing whether America can leapfrog China in key technologies.
Our answer: probably not, and batteries prove it.In fact, the real question isn't whether the US can – or even should – try to outpace China in at least some advanced tech; it's whether the West can afford not to learn from China.
On this podcast episode, Andrew Polk sits down with Cory Combs (Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research) to unpack:
Why China is placing simultaneous bets on LFP, sodium-ion, and solid-state batteries, and what that...Ep 77 - There’s no such thing as overcapacity, China says
Beijing just released its most detailed rebuttal yet to accusations from the West around industrial overcapacity – and it pointedly avoided using the very word that started the fight in the first place.
There’s a reason for that, and we break it all down in today’s podcast.On this episode, Andrew Polk sits down with Dinny McMahon (Head of Markets Research) to unpack:
The five core arguments in MOFCOM’s new position paper on overcapacity, examining which ones hold up and which ones stretch too farWhy Beijing dropped the word “overcapacity” for “involut...Ep 76 - China's economy is hurting, Beijing's answer is patience
China's July Politburo meeting is always a big one, as the leadership takes stock of the economy and signals policy adjustments for the second half of the year.
In this year’s July meeting, officials clearly signaled that more fiscal support is on the way, but only in modest amounts.Note: This is our second short format episode – tighter, quick-turnaround reactions to the news as it breaks, alongside our regular weekly deep dives.
Let us know what you think about the new format!On this episode, Andrew Polk sits down with...
Ep 75 - DeepSeek Founder Goes Off Script in Leaked Investor Call
A leaked, four-hour investor call with DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng has been spreading like wildfire on the Chinese internet over the past few days – before links to it started disappearing – and Trivium's Bao Linghao joined the pod to give it a Friday-morning stress test.
His verdict: The transcript seems legit, and it tracks with everything else we know about how the lab operates.Quick note: This is another one of our shorter, quick-turnaround episodes – where Andrew grabs an analyst for their unfiltered take on something breaking in the news, alongside our regula...
Ep 74 - Kimi K3 Was So Good It Freaked Out Two Governments
Beijing is moving to restrict how far its own open-source AI models can travel abroad, just as Washington moves to restrict how far they can travel in.
Same standoff, squeezing from opposite ends of the pipeline.Quick note: This episode is the first of a new, more frequent style of podcast we're rolling out – shorter, faster-turnaround conversations to react to the news as it breaks, alongside our regular weekly deep dives.
Look for more of these in your feed soon.On this episode, Andrew Polk sits down with Kendra Sc...
Ep 73 - China's Stock Market Rescue: How Big Is Beijing's Bet?
China is stepping in to prop up its stock market, quietly opening the door to more outbound investment, and easing off the credit gas – all at once.
Coincidence? We don't think so.On this week's Trivium China Podcast, Andrew Polk sits down with Dinny McMahon (Head of Markets Research) and Joe Peissel (Lead Macro Analyst) to unpack:
Why the "national team" bought A-shares after last month's selloff, and why this intervention was smaller than last year’sWhat SAFE's move to regularize QDII quotas signals about RMB internationalizationThe quiet PBOC move to curb bank...Ep 72 - China is building a market for data. Why isn’t America?
Data has become one of the most important inputs in the modern economy, especially as access to high-quality information increasingly shapes the global race to develop artificial intelligence.
But while US policymakers tend to view data primarily through a national security lens, Beijing is pursuing a much broader strategy aimed at unlocking data’s economic value.On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to explore why China has formally designated data as a “factor of production” – and how that idea is resh...
Ep 71 - Is China quietly beginning to deleverage?
China’s economy has lost momentum after a surprisingly strong start to the year.
But while many analysts are asking why Beijing isn’t doing more to stimulate growth, this week’s Trivium China Podcast explores a different question: why are policymakers deliberately choosing not to?Pod host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Markets Research Dinny McMahon to examine why Beijing may be quietly embarking on its first genuine economy-wide deleveraging effort in years, and what that could mean for China’s growth model.
The two discuss:
Why rece...Ep 70 - China’s growth model hits another reality check
China’s economy started 2026 with surprising momentum – but the latest monthly macro data underscores that many of the country’s underlying challenges remain firmly in place.
On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Lead Macro Analyst Joe Peissel to unpack the latest economic data and what it reveals about the increasingly uneven nature of China’s growth story.
The two discuss:
Why China’s economy is increasingly operating on “two tracks”The continued boom in AI, semiconductors, clean energy, and export-oriented manufacturingWhy much of the rest o...Ep 69 - Podcast | The “China Shock 2.0” fallacy
It’s been a busy few weeks for Chinese diplomacy, with Xi Jinping making a rare trip to North Korea while tensions between Beijing and Brussels continue to climb over trade, industrial policy, and the future of Europe’s manufacturing base.
On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Geopolitical Research Joe Mazur and Head of Clean Energy and EV Research Cosimo Ries to unpack these two critically important developments in China’s external relations.First, Andrew and Joe break down Xi’s first trip to North Kor...
Ep 68 - Can asset revitalization save local government finances?
China’s local governments have spent the past four years grappling with the fallout from the property market collapse. Land sales have dried up, fiscal pressures remain intense, and officials across the country are still searching for sustainable new sources of revenue.
On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Markets Research Dinny McMahon to discuss one of the most important – and least understood – developments in China’s fiscal landscape: asset revitalization.
The two unpack how local governments are increasingly turning underutilized state-owned assets into...
Ep 67 - What exactly is US policy toward Taiwan?
This week on the Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Geopolitical Analysis Joe Mazur to unpack one of the most consequential – and potentially misunderstood – issues emerging from the recent Xi-Trump summit: Taiwan.
While both Washington and Beijing have publicly insisted that little changed during the meeting, Joe argues that several comments from President Trump may signal a meaningful shift in how the White House approaches Taiwan – one that could introduce greater uncertainty into an already delicate cross-strait equilibrium.
The conversation explores:
Why Trump's comments...Ep 66 - Jon Czin on Xi, Trump, and the US-China stalemate
It’s been a consequential week for US-China relations, as Xi Jinping and Donald Trump finally held their long-awaited summit in Beijing amid ongoing trade tensions, export control battles, and the fallout from the Iran war.
On the first half of this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by special guest Jon Czin – the Michael H. Armacost Chair in Foreign Policy Studies and a fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution – to unpack what came out of the Xi-Trump meeting, what both sides were trying to accompli...
Ep 65 - Xi-Trump vibes, meetings about meetings, and the PBoC’s next moves
The long-awaited Xi Jinping–Donald Trump meeting has finally happened – but what, exactly, came out of it?
On the first part of this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research Cory Combs to unpack the immediate takeaways from the leaders’ summit in Beijing.
The two discuss:
Why the meeting was heavy on symbolism but light on concrete outcomes The significance of China’s high-level diplomatic treatment of Trump What to watch for on export controls and a possible ext...Ep 64 - China sanctions pushback, macro resilience, and more Iran war fallout
It’s been another consequential week for China’s economy and foreign policy – with Beijing deploying its blocking rules for the first time ever in response to new US sanctions tied to Iranian oil purchases.
On the first half of this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research Cory Combs to unpack what China’s latest legal and regulatory moves mean for the future of US-China economic competition and sanctions enforcement.
The two discuss:
China’s first-ever use...Ep 63 - Beijing unwinds the Meta-Manus deal
What happens when a Chinese AI startup tries to sell itself to a major US tech company, but Beijing decides it doesn’t like the deal?
In this week’s episode, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to unpack the latest in the Meta-Manus acquisition saga and what it reveals about China’s evolving approach to tech regulation and national security.
The two discuss:
Why Chinese regulators ordered the Meta-Manus deal unwoundHow Beijing is using dormant foreign investment review p...Ep 62 - All the latest on the China supply chain front
With the Xi-Trump meeting looming and the Iran situation changing every hour, how are China and the US trying to secure their respective interests?
This week, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk and Head of Supply Chain Research Cory Combs break down key dynamics – from:
The evolving impacts of the Iran war and China's responsesChina's latest supply chain and anti-foreign coercion policiesThe US's ongoing mass-diversification push amid Chinese export controlsUS-China strategy as the leadership meeting approachesAnd more!With both Andrew and Cory having just returned from ~6 weeks of travel, they take stock in...
Ep 61 - A stress test at the worst possible moment
China's economy started the year off on the front foot – but fragilities remain just below the surface, and the war in Iran may put that early positive momentum to the test.
To discuss the latest dynamics driving the economy, and the potential…erm…hiccups it may face in the coming months, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk is joined this week by two seasoned economists:
Beijing-based China Economist at the Standard Bank Group, Jeremy StevensAnd Trivium’s own lead macro-econ analyst, Joe PeisselThe three run through the latest monthly macro data, discuss...
Ep 60 - How China views the Iran situation
There’s only one storyline that matters geopolitically right now, and that’s the ongoing war between the US and Israel and Iran.
Now in its third week, the war increasingly looks likely to be a protracted engagement, and as the conflict grinds on, the implications – both political and economic – for the many countries not involved in the fighting will become clearer.
China, of course, has a wide-range of interests – both short- and long-term – that will be impacted by the situation.To unpack the thinking around all of this in Beijing, Trivium China Podcas...
Ep 59 - 15th FYP deep dive: industrial upgrading, solving the compute problem, and investing in people
On this week’s edition of the Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is back with a gaggle of Trivium analysts to go deep on various aspects of the recently released 15th Five Year Plan (FYP).
The group covers a broad range of issues including:
Key macroeconomic, development, and economic security goalsThe plan for industrial upgrading – and key priorities in upstream, midstream, and downstream industriesThe nexus of technological and industrial ambitionHow climate goals and industrial policy interactChina’s latest efforts to solve its compute problemHow innovation factors into goals for the healthcare and agriculture sector...Ep 58 - FYP, GDP, and Ilaria Mazzocco on NEVs
It’s been a big week in China, with the annual government meetings (aka the Two Sessions) kicking off to lay out key policy priorities for the year – and to drop a draft version of the 15th Five Year Plan (FYP).
There’s a ton of policy to wade through in both the annual government work reports and the FYP – from macro, to tech, to healthcare, to bio-manufacturing, and more.On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by six different Trivium policy specialists to walk through their initial takes on what matte...
Ep 57 - Jude Blanchette on how China views “The Rupture” in global politics
2026 has kicked off with a geopolitical bang – from US intervention in Venezuela to threats against Greenland to potential military action against Iran, not to mention the latest tariff turmoil following last week’s US Supreme Court ruling.
All of this volatility – and what it might say about the role the US will play in the world going forward – can lead to some pretty lazy assumptions that China will automatically benefit by easily positioning itself as a stabilizing global force.But reality is more complicated: Chinese leaders are likely just as befuddled by the rapidly c...
Ep 56 - Heard on the street, Beijing edition
It's been a while between trips, but last week Trivium's Head of Markets Research, Dinny McMahon, was back in Beijing.
In this podcast, he and Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk discuss Dinny's observations and takeaways from the trip.
After dissecting the vibe on the street, the gents get into:
Where there might be some potential for investment growth this yearWhy the only thing that will unlock household spending is a housing market recoveryThis one is short and sweet, so please enjoy this fun-sized pod.
And a n...
Ep 55 - Can US-China relations remain a calm amidst the geopolitical storm?
US-China bilateral relations have, surprisingly, been an anchor of calm amidst a sea of geopolitical uncertainty in the opening innings of 2026.
And increasingly, it looks like the seemingly fragile truce between the two countries will prove more resilient that it initially seemed – back when US President Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to a trade war détente in November.To discuss the state of play – and where things might be going – Trivium China pod host Andrew Polk is joined this week by Joe Mazur (Head of Geopolitical Research) and Even Pay (Head of Ag and Tra...
Ep 54 - Can China get investment growth back on track?
On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk speaks with our lead macro-econ analyst, Joe Peissel, to take a quick temperature check of China’s latest macro data.
The two discuss:
What the full-year 2025 data (released in mid-Jan) tells us about the state of play and the likely economic trajectory for 2026How the constituent parts of the economy – consumption, investment, and exports – are faringWhether the export machine can possibly go from strength to strength in 2026Then Andrew is joined by pod regulars Dinny McMahon (Head of Markets Research) and Cory Combs (H...
Ep 53 - Financial regulators start 2026 with a bang + Beijing’s view on the Meta-Manus deal
China’s financial regulators have started 2026 with a flurry of activity.
On January 14, the securities regulator raised margin requirements on stock trading in a bid to cool investors’ exuberance.The following day the central bank expanded a bunch of its relending facilities, and cut the interest rate on all of its structural lending tools.Then on January 20, the finance ministry rolled out a bunch of measures designed to bolster investment by small, private sector firms.What’s driving this hyperactive policymaking? That’s what Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research...
Ep 52 - China's economic slowdown – not as bad as it seems
November economic data was a bit of a letdown, suggesting China’s economy is rapidly losing growth momentum.
Fixed asset investment declined by double digitsIndustrial output grew at its slowest rate in 15 monthsRetail sales of consumer goods grew at the slowest rate in three yearsBut things aren’t as bad as they seem.
This week, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s lead macro-econ analyst Joe Peissel to dig into November’s economic data. The gents cover:
China’s supply-side slowdown, and why it’s partially policy-drive...Ep 51 - Reordering global supply chains: licenses, leverage, and our strategic look-ahead
As the new year approaches, governments, corporations, and investors alike are asking: what will critical material supply chains look like in the year to come?
In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Cory Combs, Head of Critical Mineral and Supply Chain Research, discuss where global supply chains and diversification efforts stand today – and how they are likely to shape up in 2026.
Starting from the latest need-to-know specifics and working up to the broader strategic takes from Team Trivium, the lads discuss:
What's going on with China's general licenses and export trendsTrends an...Ep 50 - Breaking down the Central Economic Work Conference
At the end of each year, China's top economic policymakers get together for the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) to discuss their goals for the year ahead.
This year's CEWC wrapped up on December 11, and in this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, get together to discuss the ins-and-outs of the meeting's official readout.
Warning: The readout from the CEWC is invariably a big-picture policy document that's frustratingly thin on detail.
Deciphering what the leadership means takes a little bit of reading between the...Ep 49 - I say overcapacity, you say involution, let’s call the whole thing off
In mid-2024, Beijing rebranded its overcapacity problems as “involution.” Does it matter? As the bard would say, a rose by any other name…
And yet, over time it’s become clear that this was more than just a rebranding exercise. Along with the change in name came a subtle shift in how Beijing perceives its overcapacity problems – a shift that has important policy implications.
In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, talk all things involution. The gents discuss:
How the concept of involution differs from that of ov...Ep 48 - How Xi Jinping thinks about the rule of law + explaining why capital investment is tanking
On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, your loyal Trivium team digs into China’s key domestic and regional developments from the past few days.
First, Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver discuss:
The Party’s latest conference on law-based governance – and what it tells about how Xi Jinping views China’s legal and regulatory systemsXi’s motivations in refreshing and solidifying the various rules that govern Party and government behaviorChina’s related efforts to build out its foreign-facing legal toolkitThe gents then move on to examine the intensifying diplomatic row between China...
Ep 47 - China Shock 2.0: the trade implications of China’s new economic growth model
With the US and China having agreed to a détente over trade, now is a good time to take a step back from the day-to-day back-and-forth of measures and countermeasure, and look at the longer term implications of China’s new economic model for trade.
In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, kick off by discussing China’s surprisingly bleak October economic data, before wading into big picture trade issues.
They discuss:
How China intends to maintain export growth in the face of rising trade...Ep 46 - What China really agreed to on rare earths + assessing US capability to end reliance on China
Confusion around what China has officially agreed to in terms of pausing its rare earths, and other critical mineral, export controls persists – even as we are a week out from Donald Trump and Xi Jinping’s trade agreement in South Korea.
Significant discrepancies remain between official statements from the White House and China’s Ministry of Commerce on the issue.
Meanwhile, officials and commercial players on both sides of the Pacific are reporting significant differences around their expectations for how quickly, and abundantly, rare earths and other critical minerals will flow from China.In t...
Ep 45 - China’s perspective on the trade ceasefire + 15th Five-Year Plan breakdown
It was another monumental week on the China front.
On Tuesday, the Party released its sprawling 15th Five Year Plan (FYP) Proposals – laying out the sheer scale of Xi Jinping’s policy ambitions over the next half-decadeThen on Thursday, Xi and US President Donald Trump got together in South Korea – their first meeting in six years – and agreed to a year-long ceasefire in the trade warIn this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by colleagues Kendra Schaefer and Dinny McMahon to break it all down.
That’s right folk...
Ep 44 - Xi’s make or break moment + USCBC’s Sean Stein on US-China volatility
Alright folks, this one is a banger.
In this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined first by colleagues Dinny McMahon and Joe Peissel. The three discuss:
The most recent China macro dataEconomic headwinds and tailwinds as we move into 2026Their early read of the 4th Plenum – and Xi Jinping’s make or break moment with the upcoming Five-Year PlanAndrew is then joined by a very special guest – US-China Business Council President Sean Stein. They get into:
How US businesses are navigating the uncertainty of the US-China...Ep 43 - Volatility and fragility: US and China seek path back to negotiating table
It’s been a frenetic and exhausting couple of weeks on the US-China front.
After tensions heightened again last week – in the wake of China’s major expansion of export controls – the two sides continued to jockey, both privately and publicly, over the past few days.
At this point, it appears that both sides are willing to continue negotiating – but the current state of the relationship is very fragile and will remain highly volatile.To discuss where things currently stand, how we got here, and where we are going, this week’s pod featur...
