Politics with Paul

Something that gets lost in the election noise is that a lot of contests are foregone conclusions. Many of the results and the way many voters behave can be seen from a mile away. But have you wondered why so many elections are easily predictable?

Today's episode of Politics with Paul explores what is predictable in elections and the implications. Listen in to see which aspects of politics and voter behavior are easily foreseeable and which are harder to forecast, where the fluctuations are that lead to unexpected results, and most importantly why this level of predictability...

You often hear election winners claim they have a voter "mandate" - because they won, the public has entrusted that candidate to implement all their policy views. But does the idea of the voter mandate really hold up to scrutiny?

Today's episode dives into the logic (or lack thereof) of the voter mandate, its implications, and why it's so often claimed by winning candidates. While it may not sound like a big deal to some observers, the mindset can have some important ramifications for government accountability, how well elected officials represent us, and whether we have sufficient choi...

Informed voting is about more than mulling over who the “right” candidates are or how you should vote on ballot measures. It’s about understanding fundamentals of American governance and well-rounded decision-making.

Whether you are a regular election participant, a first-time voter, or anything in between, this episode of Politics with Paul seeks to provide advice on how to make your vote decision-making easier and clearer, with 6 principles you may or may not have considered previously. Before you vote, I ask that you think these ideas over, including how to evaluate candidates, weighing how much a candidate might...

Negativity reigns in political ads — from assailing of candidate records to personal attacks. Despite candidate pledges to be positive and voters’ insistence that they hate negative campaigning, combative and adversarial ads become only more ubiquitous in the final weeks before an election.

With the harmful impacts to democracy and dialogue that negative ads can bring, there are some questions we need to ask ourselves as voters, candidates, and political observers. Is negative campaigning really that effective? Do we truly hate negative campaigning like we say we do? Can it still sometimes serve a good purpose? And lastly, what can...

Voting is often treated as a simple civic duty, but the reasons people vote are more varied than that. In this episode of Politics with Paul, we look at why we vote in the first place, whether voting can be considered rational, and five common motives that shape turnout. The discussion evaluates those motives and explores the blurry lines between altruism and self-interest, as well as between duty, belonging, and social approval. It closes by asking why understanding our motives for voting matters at all.

Voting is often treated as a straightforward act of reason, but the reality is more complicated. In this episode of Politics with Paul, we examine what it means to vote rationally, how heuristics shape political choices, and 4 major models of voting behavior: rational vote theory, party-line voting, retrospective voting, and prospective voting. The discussion also looks at what influences our ballots beyond pure reasoning and asks a central question: how rational are we, really, when we vote?

In elections, many voters worry about "wasting" votes on perceived uncompetitive candidates - but is there such a thing as a wasted vote? Or perhaps this is the better question: Is the logic behind "not wasting votes" flawed? Today's episode of Politics with Paul dives into this common thought process that affects countless votes - and therefore, countless election results. The discussion cuts to the heart of some of the most important questions in politics: why we even vote in the first place, how logical voters' thinking is, and whether we are truly holding politicians, interest groups, and media accountable.

Growing up and even as adults, we're often told that we should avoid talking politics because it is too divisive. That's understandable given how toxic the subject is, but that's not always good advice. Yet how do we know when we should and shouldn't discuss it? There's a time and place for everything, and today's episode of Politics with Paul explores when and where that is for elections and policy talk. Included in the discussion are the factors that influence the appropriateness of talking politics, why it's not just about when and where we discuss it, and whether that old...

The US Senate often finds itself in the middle of controversy and as the subject of scorn. But does this mean we should eliminate it completely? Is it outdated ... or still a necessary part of American government? In today's episode of Politics with Paul, we tackle this question. While it's not a popular view, at its core are some of the most essential questions about how our government should work. The episode also covers why we need to know why the US Senate was created, the question of whether it is an extreme position, and potential changes to the US Sena...

Apathy about politics is always a looming threat to democracy - one that even the Founding Fathers warned about. But why do we see so much apathy? And what can we do about it? On today's episode, survey research expert Travis Taylor discusses his insights and findings on the problem of political apathy and how we can start fixing it. Drawing on his new book, "Democracy InAction: How Citizen Apathy Threatens America and What We Can Do About It," tune in to hear his advice on the sources of political detachment, where civic involvement can improve (which goes beyond voting), and...

How did we come to have such disturbingly low trust in so many American political institutions? And how do we restore that faith? Today's Politics with Paul guest, Sherman Tylawsky of the George Washington Institute, discusses these questions and more. Tune in to hear his insights on why it is important to have some faith (but not blind and unthinking faith) in the basic organizations, rules, and systems of American politics; why this lack of trust is a threat to democracy; and how fixing the problem is attainable.

In this episode of Politics with Paul, Paul Rader chats with Nathan Smolensky about tackling political polarization. Nathan delves into the allure of division and how incentives shape political behavior. They discuss why polarized people often don't recognize their own divisiveness, balancing short-term wins with long-term goals, and crafting unique moral incentives. The media's role in fostering polarization and the potential influence of independent candidates are also explored. The episode wraps up with ways to engage non-polarized voters and a fun debate on pronouncing "coupon."

The reliability of polling responses is a crucial aspect of understanding public opinion. yet we must be careful reading too much into their results or stretching what the data says is an easy mistake to make. In this episode of Politics with Paul, we delve into the sincerity of polling responses and what makes a poll respondent trustworthy. The respondents in polls can be biased and incentivized to give opinions that aren't their completely true feelings. Even if they are fully sincere, however, public sentiment only has limited power. This episode also covers these ways that public sentiment can be...

The concept of states' rights has been a pivotal aspect of American political discourse since the nation's founding. In this episode of Politics with Paul, we delve into the complexities of states' rights, exploring their pros and cons and how they are balanced by the Constitution. We also discuss historical controversies and developments like the Nullification Crisis, slavery and civil rights, the Incorporation Doctrine, and the evolution of federalism, as well as contemporary states' rights debates.

The biggest issue that loses campaigns is the inability to properly self-assess. Today's episode of Politics with Paul teaches how to address that problem. When campaigning, you have to be fully honest not just about what your candidate does well or what can go right, but your candidate's weak points and what can cripple their campaign. These are done through SWOT analyses - strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. Yet many campaigns do not effectively address their blind spots. Today, we cover why campaigns falter in self-assessment and SWOT analyses, how to fill out a SWOT, and practical applications.

Where do we draw the line for mental and physical fitness for our government officials? We all want political leaders who are up to the task of carrying out their offices' duties. Yet we sharply differ on who is capable and how we should ensure that competency. Today's episode of Politics with Paul is about all things mental and physical fitness for elected officials: whether we might see more stringent requirements for it, the trickiness in implementing such requirements, how old is too old, the trickiness in defining "too unfit for office," and more.

Does civics education in America need a rework in its content? On today's episode of Politics with Paul, Douglas Addison - the founder and president of the Center for Free, Fair, and Accountable Democracy - sits down to discuss the CFFAD's work in improving civics education in America. Among our discussion points are representative democracy, public opinion trends, and declining trust in democratic institutions amid rising authoritarianism, political manipulation, whether to standardize civics education, the impact of partisanship, and overlooked areas in civic education. A fun question about US presidential hairstyles wraps up the discussion.

With this being the 100th episode of the podcast and falling around the 250th anniversary of American independence, today's discussion is about one of the most critical questions of all: What exactly is being an American about? I'm not talking about the legal implications or pop culture. This is about the essence of the American spirit, and the basic promise of the US Constitution and the Declaration of Independence. This is about what American values are, free from partisan and ideological rhetoric. This is a call to civic renewal and to be good stewards of America to our fellow citizens...

The Federalist Papers remain a cornerstone of American political thought, but what lessons do they hold for us today? This episode delves into key essays, starting with Federalist Paper No. 10's exploration of factions and the implications of pluralism. Federalist Paper No. 39's discussion on federal and state power traces the evolution from dual to cooperative federalism. Federalist Paper No. 51 highlights checks and balances. No. 70 examines presidential power and the argues for an energetic executive. Federalist No. 78 addresses the judiciary's independence. And No. 84 argues against...a bill of rights?

250 years is a lot of time for change. So what has transformed the most in American politics in that time? Many aspects have gotten better over 250 years. Some have gotten worse. And some are just as flawed as they were before. Regardless, this episode of Politics with Paul is about some of the most seismic, overarching changes that you might not know about -- from election formats to campaigning strategy to civil service reform -- and what may be in store for the next 250 years.

Redistricting is fraught with partisanship and underhanded tactics...but can it be 100% fixed? Making fair districts and preventing gerrymandering is an extraordinarily difficult goal for a lot of reasons we don't realize...or want to admit. Today's episode explores the issues with rules that currently govern the redistricting process today, how we as citizens make it easier to gerrymander, several proposals for how to make redistricting fairer, and whether it is truly possible to make the redistricting process impartial.

Redistricting in America is a broken process - but before we can fix it, we must understand its inner workings and how we got here. In this first episode of a two-parter, I explore the background of redistricting, including its history, how its impacted today, and what currently goes into making new districts. Current attempts to redistrict have clearly partisan motives, but is that much different than the past? What needs to be considered when making new districts today? And what can redistricting of the past teach us going forward?

It’s a common sentiment: the country is going down the drain. But is it true? Our perceptions of whether the country is “on the decline” or “entering a golden age” are shaped by a variety of factors and biases. We need to have an honest conversation about these problems, but how do we do that? Today’s episode explores the debate about whether America is truly in decline, the importance of honestly discussing the flaws and strengths of the country, and the importance of (reasonable) optimism.

On the cusp of America's 250th anniversary, would the nation's Founding Fathers be proud or disappointed in what America's become? I believe the answer isn't so simple. Today's episode of Politics with Paul explores this question, discussing the biases that influences our answers, misconceptions about the Founding Fathers and how those misunderstandings impact our political thinking today, how politics during the Founding Fathers' time wasn't so different to now...and what it all means for America's 250th birthday.

Lobbying has a lot of issues…but you probably don't hate it as much as you think you do. The term "lobbyist" often conjures up depictions of shadowy figures making corrupt deals with elected officials to manipulate public policy for the powerful few. It is true that more than a few are corrupt, unethical, or self-interested - and even lobbyists that don't fit this bill sometimes whitewash the profession. At the same time, however, the public often misunderstands what lobbying entails. Today's episode of Politics with Paul pulls back some of the curtain surrounding lobbying, explaining more about the actual role o...

Do we want authentic candidates in elections as much as we say we do? "Authenticity" is a favored buzzword by a politician's supporters to showcase why their candidate is the best, and by commentators who over-simplify the reason an election resulted the way it did. But can we actualyl say what "authenticity" is? Here's something crucial about how we judge politicians - our perception of their authenticity is deeply subjective and often influenced by biases we don't even realize we hold. But can we more objectively define authenticity? Today's episode of Politics with Paul centers on the various explanations of what...

Midterm elections are often discussed for how much the sitting president's party suffers losses, but commentary often doesn't showcase why that is. Today's episode dives into the world of midterms, why they often play out differently than presidential election years, what factors are used to predict their results, and what it all means for 2026 elections. Can Republicans buck the historical trend, or will they become another data point in it?

Ballot measures are the most direct way for voters to impact the political process…but they can be difficult and tedious to comprehend. Here's a guide to help you better understand them. As a critical part of the election cycle, ballot measures cover a massive variety of topics: redistricting, voting systems, campaign contribution laws, government official salaries, healthcare, taxes, and many more. Today's episode of Politics with Paul will teach you how to research these measures, how to make them easier to read, the components to a ballot measure, and some of the political games played with them that you ne...

What if a Congressional party nomination could become more localized and geared toward all small donors? Primary elections tend to heavily favor the most well-funded and extreme candidates. Many Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike often feel the nominating process is unfair and unrepresentative as a result. But could a new third party's "People's Primary" be the answer to these criticisms? Today's guest on Politics with Paul is Tom Joseph, founder of America's Main Street Party. The AMSP uses the "People's Primary" to select its nominee, using local committees, small donors, and an app to allow citizens to choose the party's...

Could we see the end of political parties in America in the future? While political parties have existed in this country since the 1790s, they have also often been the target of intense criticism. Despite how much they are lamented and how many voters identify as independents, however, the Democratic and Republican Parties hold the vast majority of elected offices that have partisan elections. But today's guest, Metin Pekin, argues that not only is it necessary to dissolve the party system-- he says it is practical and achievable. Metin is the author of "Breaking Democracy's Chains: Freeing and Fortifying Democracy Ag...

What makes a government representative of the people - and is that what we see in America? Everybody wants a government that not only works for them but also reflects its constituents. There is also a lot of agreement that government falls short of doing so. Yet how people envision that representativeness isn't always the same, and there are a lot of obstacles that hinder government's ability to be representative. Today's episode explores this concept of representation in government. How often should representatives do exactly what the voters want? What kinds of representativeness do different people find important? What are some...

Do we know what civility in conversation actually looks like? Healthy and grounded discussion is in short supply, especially in politics. Political discussions are often filled with toxic rhetoric and behavior, leading to many instances of verbal and physical violence. But while we know what toxicity looks like, there are some misunderstandings and mistaken beliefs about what civility looks like.  So how do we become more civil? Today's guest, Dr. Michael Lee, dives into this question and more. Dr. Lee is the executive director of the Civility Initiative at the College of Charleston and the host of the "When We D...

Republicans and Democrats just can't get along…or can they? Almost all the talk about interparty relations is about how much they bicker, fight, and attack each other. And it's true, there is a lot that divides us. However, there is a surprising amount that both parties actually agree on - they just don't realize it. But it's easy to say that we actually have a lot of common ground - how about some examples? Today's episode will show you why we focus so much on differences between the parties, why we underestimate the level of similarities, some of the contexts t...

In political discussions, blame often gets thrown around. People get accused of "both sides-ing" an issue when they don't take a strong stance. Or accusations of wrongdoing are responded to with, "Yeah, but what about you?!" The vast majority of disputes in politics involve at least one of these rhetorical devices. Oftentimes, these tactics are destructive and unhelpful, making discourse worse. But are there times where blaming, accusing someone of "both sides-ing," or whataboutism are justified? Today's episode explores our penchant for engaging in these tactics, why they regularly happen, why the line for when these are acceptable is hard...

Government often feels unaccountable and non-transparent - but it doesn't have to be that way. Imagine an app and platform that not only significantly cuts down on the difficulty and time-consumption of researching bills and how legislators vote on them. It also allows you, the voter, to tell legislators in real-time how you want them to vote, and therefore makes them more accountable to the people. Sound too good to be true? Well, that's what the Digital Democracy Project does, helmed by today's Politics with Paul guest, Ramon Perez. A military veteran, AI consultant, and political reformer, Ramon discusses how DDP...

It's an election year - and that means a lot of fodder about election polls and the "horse race" aspect of polls. It's easy to get caught up in who is "winning" a race, but a lot of the discussion about polls is immersed in misunderstandings about how it works, vested interests in what polls get promoted, and surface-level analysis of public opinion. For as much as people obsess over polls, many of them also love to trash polls as unreliable and even deceptive. Today's episode of Politics in Paul cuts through a lot of that noise, seeking to make poll...

We often think we or like-minded people have all the answers for how to fix politics. Yet we think the solutions are far easier, more obvious, and more foolproof than they actually are. It's a trap that any of us (some people more than others) can fall into. You should be skeptical if someone says, "It's simple, we need to do X." Still, we should encourage people to share their ideas for democracy. We just need to get people to think more critically about their ideas and others they agree with. Today's episode of Politics with Paul dives into this...

Perhaps the most important component to any campaign is mobilizing and motivating supporters and like-minded people to support your cause. Yet just because you have broad agreement doesn't mean it's simple and easy to galvanize these voters. You need to find out who these people are, craft the right message, the resources to reach them, and the right amount of nudging to come out to vote, among other things. What are the best ways to do that? Today's Politics with Paul guest, Bert Ralston, joined the podcast to share his decades-long insights into that question. Bert has had a long...

Our civic culture is in precarious state, and toxicity and hyperpolarization threaten to make it even more unhealthy. It's now more critical than ever to renew our commitment to our civic ideals and to each other as Americans. But that's considerably easier said than done. How do we do that? Today's guest, Daniel Yudkin, joins the podcast to showcase what may be the key to revitalizing our civic culture and getting back to more healthy engagement with our political system. As head of the Beacon Project, he and his organization have been developing the concept of "potentialism," which states that...

While voter turnout overall is notoriously low in most American elections, youth voter turnout especially lags noticeably behind older voters, even when there is an uptick in participation. Sometimes, that has led to criticisms of youth citizens as "lazy," "uninformed," "unengaged," or "selfish." But is it really that simple? And do we have to just accept low voter turnout as an unchangeable fact? In today's episode of the Politics with Paul Podcast, election reformer and seasoned political campaigner Stephanie Houghton sits down to discuss the issues facing youth voter turnout and how we can go about solving them. She shares...