Grinding The Variance (A Davis Mattek Fantasy Football Pod)
The audio podcast feed for Davis Mattek’s DFS, fantasy football, and best ball streams on the Davis Mattek YouTube channel and elsewhere.
Week 7 Picks, Props and Survivor Pool Picks
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Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro: Davis 5-1 ATS, Bears Undervalued
0:47 - Davis ATS Pick: Jets -4.5 vs Dolphins
4:50 - Nez ATS Pick: Vikings -6.5 vs Colts
9:12 - Underdog 4-Pick Flex Math Explained
10:47 - Cade Otton 3.5+ Receptions (No Egbuka, No Evans)
12:51 - Ollie Gordon Under 59.5 Rush + Rec Yards
15:52 - Woody Marks Anytime TD (Texans Backfield Depth)
20:20...
Week 7 - Thinking About DFS
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Timestamps:
0:00:00 - Intro: Giants-Texans, Malik Nabers & J.J. McCarthy
0:04:11 - Is Kevin O’Connell Really a QB Whisperer?
0:10:04 - Colts-Vikings: Kyler Murray/Justin Jefferson Stack, Keenan Allen
0:15:40 - 49ers-Falcons: McCaffrey Mega Chalk, Bijan vs. Gibbs
0:16...
Week 7 - Arguing the Inputs
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Timestamps:
0:00:00 - Jalen Coker vs. Tetairoa McMillan Target Share & Pricing
0:01:55 - Bucky Irving Rush Share, Sean Tucker, Mayfield Return
0:04:57 - 49ers WRs Without Evans: Christian Kirk vs. Brandon Cooks
0:09:19 - Just Play More Kittle & McCaffrey
0...
Still the Best to Ever Do It
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Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro: Gibbs & Walker Having All-Time Seasons
1:17 - Half the League Has No Fantasy-Relevant Players
2:57 - BBM Advance Rate Leaderboard Walkthrough (Walker, Hubbard, Watson)
3:12 - Jaylen Warren & Rico Dowdle Timeshare
3:51 - Davante Adams Injur...
What Mattered in Week 6
Davis cuts through some of the noise and talks about things that mattered in Week 6 of the NFL season before Monday Night Football.
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The Worst NFL DFS Lineup I've Ever Seen
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Timestamps:
0:00 - Week 6 Slate Recap: Only One Premium Player, Cheap Values Everywhere
1:24 - Jahmyr Gibbs 66% Owned Last Week, Nate and Davis Dupe Each Other
2:00 - Cash QB Options: Stafford, Caleb Williams, Tanner McKee
3:35 - Sammy Playe...
Thinking About DFS for Week 6
Davis talks DFS for Week 6 of the NFL slate.
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Timestamps:
0:00:00 - Intro: Bijan vs. Walker Ownership & Bears Defense
0:02:48 - Drake London Chalk vs. Bears? Fade
0:04:03 - Bears Passing Game: Burden, Loveland, Odunze Targets
0:07:48 - Why...
Week 5 Gillcast with Adam Levitan
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro: Adam Levitan Fills In for Sammy
00:52 - Obvious Cash Build & Jaylen Warren Want Play
02:48 - Bourne, Michael Wilson & Trey Harris Receiver Calls
08:02 - Arizona’s Pass-Heavy Script & McBride Garbage-Time TD
10:17 - McBride...
Week 5 Picks
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Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro & Broncos -3 Over Chargers Pick
2:47 - Dave’s Pick: Lions -5.5 vs. Cardinals
6:13 - Cowboys Loss Rant: Jake Ferguson & Play Design
8:28 - Underdog Picks: D’Andre Swift Longest Rush Prop
12:20 - Courtland...
Thinking About DFS for Week 5
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Am I The Best To Ever Do It?
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Timestamps:
0:00:00 - Intro: Hot Start With 37 BBM Teams Advancing
0:01:19 - Busted Stars: Puka, Chase, Barkley Advance Rates
0:05:42 - Tyreek Hill Expected to Sign With Chiefs
0:09:52 - Chiefs WR Trade Targets and Salary Cap Limits
0:15:09 - Pit...
What Mattered in Week 4
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Week 4 Gillcast
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Timestamps:
0:00 - Chalkpocalypse: Week 4 Chalk Busts
0:50 - T.J. Hockenson Double-Digit Catches Debate
3:41 - Trevor Lawrence 70% Owned vs. Tyson Bagent
6:15 - Nate Pays Up for Josh Allen in Cash
7:45 - Aaron Jones' Limited Ceiling as Ch...
Week 4 Picks, Props, Survivor Pool
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Timestamps:
0:00:00 - Intro: Last Week's Wins and Show Rundown
0:00:24 - Jaguars Moneyline Pick and 20-1 Super Bowl Futures
0:03:52 - Vikings -10.5 vs. Dolphins: Brian Flores Mismatch
0:07:18 - Josh Downs Over 62.5 Receiving Yards
0:09:15 - Bhayshul Tuten Longest Rush Over 14.5
0:11:49 - Luther Burden Overs and Bears QB Situation
0:13:19 - Flex Four EV and Bucky Irving Rush Attempts
0:17:09 - Jeremiah Love Fantasy Point...
Thinking About NFL DFS (Week 4)
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Timestamps:
0:00:00 - Drake Maye Shoulder, Patriots Unplayable vs. Bills
0:01:13 - DJ Moore Return vs. Dalton Kincaid Target Share
0:04:18 - James Cook's Touchdown Problem in Bills Offense
0:07:11 - Rams-Eagles: Puka Returns, Tight End Rotation Breakdown
0:15:16 - Kyr...
We Will Miss You Terrance Ferguson
Timestamps:
0:00:00 - Intro: Terrance Ferguson Ankle Injury Reaction
0:00:54 - Exposure Check: Worthy, Jadarian Price Fumbles
0:06:49 - Underdog Eliminator Tracker Sweats
0:12:58 - FFPC Team Recaps After a Bad Sunday
0:19:07 - Best Ball ROI and BBM Advancing Count
0:21:09 - Reviewing Non-Advancing Best Ball Mania Teams
0:26:12 - Ollie Gordon Bids and Jaylen Wright Injury
0:29:23 - BBMDB Back Up: Portfolio Advance Rates
0:31:38 - Building the Excluded Players Zeros List
0:38:33 - Zero-Free Teams That Still Busted
0:40:59 - Advance Rates by Contest and Auto-Drafted Teams
0:43:37 - JSN ~40% vs Puka Nacua 1.7% Advance Rate
0:46:48 - Kenneth Walker and Josh Allen Advance Rates
0:48:52 - Andrew Laird Joins to Discuss Sport.Fun
We Will Miss You Terrance Ferguson
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Week 3 Gillcast - Fantasy Football Recap
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Most Chalk Cash Slate Ever on DraftKings
01:06 - Kyler Murray vs. Tyler Shough at QB
04:06 - Gibbs & Walker Locks, Under-Owned in GPPs
04:58 - Jalen Warren vs. Chuba Hubbard Cash Mistake
07:48 - WR Chalk: Garrett Wilson, Parker Washing...
Week 3 Gillcast - Fantasy Football Recap
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Arguing Inputs (Week 3 NFL DFS)
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Timestamps:
0:00 - Parker Washington Biggest Riser & Brian Thomas Jr. Frustration
3:17 - Jaguars Backfield: Be Aggressive on Bhayshul Tuten
5:00 - Packers Backfield: Kaleb Johnson vs. MarShawn Lloyd, O-Line Injuries
8:55 - Jets at Lions: Rush Rate, Garrett Wilson & A.D. Mitchell
12:50...
Arguing Inputs (Week 3 NFL DFS)
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Kenneth Walker Is The 1.01
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Week 2 Gillcast - NFL DFS Recap & Reactions
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Kenneth Walker is the 1.01
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Week 2 Picks, Props & Survivor
Davis prepares for Week 2 with picks, props and Survivor pool advice!
Timestamps: 0:00 - Intro: Week 1 Recap, 11-for-11 in Survivor 2:11 - Davis's Pick Against the Spread: Jaguars +2.5 at Broncos 9:17 - Pick'em Entry Starts: Colston Loveland Fantasy Points Over 12:05 - First-Touchdown Betting: Davis's Cheap Tight End Formula 14:47 - Micnuggets Coach Speak Angles: Dulcich Under Debate 18:00 - Jadarian Price Over 14.5 Rush Attempts 23:48 - Davante Adams Was Sick: Don't Panic Yet 27:54 - Jacory Croskey-Merritt (JCM) Over 53.5 Rushing Yards 31:36 - Rashod Bateman Receiving Yards: Positive Coach Speak 34:25 - Kenneth Walker Longest Rush: No Carry Limit 36:59 - Vikings Backfield: Demond Claiborne vs. DeeJay...
Week 2 Thoughts for DFS
Davis and Jakob Sanderson discuss the Week 2 slate and the dfS impact in this episode of Grinding the Variance.
Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro & Week 1 recap 00:25 - CAR/ATL (Bijan, Hubbard/Brooks, Bryce Young, Coker, McMillan) 11:20 - NO/BAL (Ravens WRs, Andrews, Lamar, Henry, Saints pace) 19:03 - MIN/CHI (Caleb vs. Flores, Odunze, Loveland, Burden, Jefferson, Aaron Jones) 29:00 - CIN/HOU (Chase, Burrow, Schultz, Noel, Montgomery) 34:28 - PIT/NE (Metcalf, Freiermuth, TreVeyon Henderson) 39:00 - GB/NYJ (Jets pace, Matthew Golden) 44:18 - CLE/TB (Bucky Irving, Gainwell, Bucs DST) 50:57 - PHI/TEN (Barkley) 52:00 - JAX/DEN (Parker Washington, Waddle, Bo...
Week 1 Gillcast (NFL DFS Recap)
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Fantasy Football Best Ball Draft: $2M Underdog Mania & Drafters 250 Strategy
An in-depth breakdown of live fantasy football drafting strategy in the Underdog Fantasy $2M Best Ball Mania and a high-stakes Drafters 250 room. Get expert analysis on emerging target trends, player injury updates, roster construction, and late-round sleeper picks to dominate your fantasy leagues.
Key Highlights & Player Analysis
Jonathan Brooks & Chuba Hubbard Dynamics: With Jonathan Brooks working off to the side without pads or a helmet, Chuba Hubbard's full return to practice makes Hubbard an incredible draft-day value while raising slight hesitation for taking Brooks early.
Malik Nabers Week 1 Outlook: Nabers expressed non-committal sentiment...
DraftKings $1M Millionaire Maker Breakdown + C.D. Lamb & Saquon Starts
On today's episode of Grinding The Variance, Davis Mattek breaks down high-stakes best ball draft strategy in the DraftKings $1M Millionaire Maker. Davis walks through picking from the late draft slots, building around top talent like C.D. Lamb and Saquon Barkley, and navigating double-QB builds with Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts.
Plus, we break down key training camp and roster updates across the NFL, including Jonnu Smith's Packers landing spot, Cedric Tillman on waivers, Alec Pierce returning from the PUP list, and late-round sleepers like Jarquez Hunter.
TIMESTAMPS:<...
Rankings are Everywhere! 2026 Fantasy Football
Davis is joined by Chad Candles (@thechadcandles) as he drafts out of the 4 spot on Draft King's Millie Maker!
The audio podcast feed for Davis Mattek’s DFS, fantasy football, and best ball streams.
🔥 Play Best Ball & get a deposit bonus w/ code DAVIS → https://play.underdogfantasy.com/davis
–
Go to the NFFC for the best high-stakes drafting ➔ playnffc.com/Profiler
First time drafters use promo code FIRSTTIME100 at registration for $100 off your first entry of $150 or more. Use code PROFILER15 for $15 off any NFFC $150 Best Ball Tournament entry. PROFILER25 for $25 off...Fantasy Football Draft Analysis: Preseason Risers, Fallers & Best Ball Mania Picks
In this episode, the hosts dive into a high-stakes Best Ball Mania (BBM) draft from the 1.12 slot using a "Heart of Hearts" strategy—drafting pure, high-conviction personal favorites regardless of market exposure.
They analyze key preseason developments, roster moves, and injury news impacting the fantasy football landscape. From Kenneth Walker's potential workload with the Chiefs to Garrett Wilson's upside and Jordan Tyson's concerning injury status, get actionable draft advice and high-leverage strategy for your upcoming best ball and redraft leagues.
--
The audio podcast feed for Davis Mattek’s DFS, fantasy football, and best...
Flock House Draft Breakdown: Egbuka Injury Update, Jonathan Brooks & Late-Round RBs
Live from the Flock House! The crew drafts Best Ball Mania, analyzing JSN’s ADP drop, Emeka Egbuka’s turf toe injury, Jonathan Brooks’ preseason debut, and late-round sleeper wide receivers.
The audio podcast feed for Davis Mattek’s DFS, fantasy football, and best ball streams.
🔥 Play Best Ball & get a deposit bonus w/ code DAVIS → https://play.underdogfantasy.com/davis
–
Go to the NFFC for the best high-stakes drafting ➔ playnffc.com/Profiler
First time drafters use promo code FIRSTTIME100 at registration for $100 off your first entry of $150 or more. Use code PROFILER15 for $15 o...Michael Leone's First Draft of the Year
On this episode, Michael Leone (@2Hats1Mike) joins Davis for his first draft of the year.
The audio podcast feed for Davis Mattek’s DFS, fantasy football, and best ball streams.
🔥 Play Best Ball & get a deposit bonus w/ code DAVIS → https://play.underdogfantasy.com/davis
–
Go to the NFFC for the best high-stakes drafting ➔ playnffc.com/Profiler
First time drafters use promo code FIRSTTIME100 at registration for $100 off your first entry of $150 or more. Use code PROFILER15 for $15 off any NFFC $150 Best Ball Tournament entry. PROFILER25 for $25 off the Footballguys Online Cha...Davis & Liam Argue About Fantasy Football
The audio podcast feed for Davis Mattek’s DFS, fantasy football, and best ball streams.
🔥 Play Best Ball & get a deposit bonus w/ code DAVIS → https://play.underdogfantasy.com/davis
–
Go to the NFFC for the best high-stakes drafting ➔ playnffc.com/Profiler
First time drafters use promo code FIRSTTIME100 at registration for $100 off your first entry of $150 or more. Use code PROFILER15 for $15 off any NFFC $150 Best Ball Tournament entry. PROFILER25 for $25 off the Footballguys Online Championship. PROFILER100 for $100 off the NFFC Primetime Tournament. PROFILER150 for $150 off the Circa World Championship.--
🦆...
Even More Training Camp Fantasy Football Updates
The audio podcast feed for Davis Mattek’s DFS, fantasy football, and best ball streams.
🔥 Play Best Ball & get a deposit bonus w/ code DAVIS → https://play.underdogfantasy.com/davis
–
Go to the NFFC for the best high-stakes drafting ➔ playnffc.com/Profiler
First time drafters use promo code FIRSTTIME100 at registration for $100 off your first entry of $150 or more. Use code PROFILER15 for $15 off any NFFC $150 Best Ball Tournament entry. PROFILER25 for $25 off the Footballguys Online Championship. PROFILER100 for $100 off the NFFC Primetime Tournament. PROFILER150 for $150 off the Circa World Championship.--
...A $500 Fantasy Football Draft
The audio podcast feed for Davis Mattek’s DFS, fantasy football, and best ball streams.
🔥 Play Best Ball & get a deposit bonus w/ code DAVIS → https://play.underdogfantasy.com/davis
–
Go to the NFFC for the best high-stakes drafting ➔ playnffc.com/Profiler
First time drafters use promo code FIRSTTIME100 at registration for $100 off your first entry of $150 or more. Use code PROFILER15 for $15 off any NFFC $150 Best Ball Tournament entry. PROFILER25 for $25 off the Footballguys Online Championship. PROFILER100 for $100 off the NFFC Primetime Tournament. PROFILER150 for $150 off the Circa World Championship.--
...Fantasy Football Training Camp Updates
The audio podcast feed for Davis Mattek’s DFS, fantasy football, and best ball streams.
🔥 Play Best Ball & get a deposit bonus w/ code DAVIS → https://play.underdogfantasy.com/davis
–
Go to the NFFC for the best high-stakes drafting ➔ playnffc.com/Profiler
First time drafters use promo code FIRSTTIME100 at registration for $100 off your first entry of $150 or more. Use code PROFILER15 for $15 off any NFFC $150 Best Ball Tournament entry. PROFILER25 for $25 off the Footballguys Online Championship. PROFILER100 for $100 off the NFFC Primetime Tournament. PROFILER150 for $150 off the Circa World Championship.--<...
Fantasy Football Friday!
The audio podcast feed for Davis Mattek’s DFS, fantasy football, and best ball streams.
🔥 Play Best Ball & get a deposit bonus w/ code DAVIS → https://play.underdogfantasy.com/davis
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Go to the NFFC for the best high-stakes drafting ➔ playnffc.com/Profiler
First time drafters use promo code FIRSTTIME100 at registration for $100 off your first entry of $150 or more. Use code PROFILER15 for $15 off any NFFC $150 Best Ball Tournament entry. PROFILER25 for $25 off the Footballguys Online Championship. PROFILER100 for $100 off the NFFC Primetime Tournament. PROFILER150 for $150 off the Circa World Championship.Fantasy Football Drafting SZN Really Is Here!
The audio podcast feed for Davis Mattek’s DFS, fantasy football, and best ball streams.
🔥 Play Best Ball & get a deposit bonus w/ code DAVIS → https://play.underdogfantasy.com/davis
–
Go to the NFFC for the best high-stakes drafting ➔ playnffc.com/Profiler
First time drafters use promo code FIRSTTIME100 at registration for $100 off your first entry of $150 or more. Use code PROFILER15 for $15 off any NFFC $150 Best Ball Tournament entry. PROFILER25 for $25 off the Footballguys Online Championship. PROFILER100 for $100 off the NFFC Primetime Tournament. PROFILER150 for $150 off the Circa World Championship. <...Training Camp Begins!
The audio podcast feed for Davis Mattek’s DFS, fantasy football, and best ball streams.
🔥 Play Best Ball & get a deposit bonus w/ code DAVIS → https://play.underdogfantasy.com/davis
🦆SIGN UP FOR FLOCK FANTASY (Rankings, Advice, Personalized Questions → https://flockfantasy.com/signup?code=DAVIS
💎 Join the channel for Discord access + Perks → / @davis_mattek
👕 Grab Slappy the Seal merch → https://davis-mattek-shop.fourthwall.com/products/slappy-the-seal-shirt
📝Drafters Best Ball ($100 Deposit Bonus) → https://drafters.com/refer/davis
🎯 Premium Tools & Content: Run The Sims (10% off w/ ENDGAME) → https://www.runthesims.com
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