Moody’s Talks - Global Economy Unwrapped

In this episode, Gaurav, Barbara, and Kamil are joined by Paolo Pasimeni, Chief Economist at the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, to examine Europe’s productivity challenge and what it will take to close the gap with the U.S. and China. Europe has considerable strengths in science and research, but struggles to translate them into innovation and investment at scale. The team explores why, looking at fragmented capital markets, the role of public and private investment, and Europe’s position in the global AI race. They also ask whether technological dependencies are becoming a strategic vulner...

Elections are supposed to provide choices. But what happens when they produce political deadlock just as governments need to make increasingly difficult economic decisions?
Gaurav Ganguly is joined by Colin Ellis, Barbara Teixeira Araujo and Kamil Kovar to unpack Europe’s increasingly complicated political economy. From France’s deteriorating fiscal outlook and the rise of parties outside the political centre to misinformation, higher bond yields and Europe’s huge investment needs, the team asks whether the continent has the political capacity to tackle its biggest economic challenges.
And if governments cannot act before markets do, could the ECB on...

Could El Niño deliver the next inflation shock? In this episode of The Global Economy Unwrapped, Gaurav Ganguly is joined by Kamil Kovar, Denise Cheok, Jeemin Bang and Deni Kasa to examine how a potentially powerful El Niño could affect food prices, inflation and monetary policy across Asia Pacific and Europe.
The team explores the risks to rice and other key commodities, the potential for drought and water scarcity to disrupt food and energy production, and how export restrictions could amplify price pressures across borders. They also ask why Europe, historically relatively insulated from El Niño...

Surging government bond yields continue to raise alarm across the global economy. Gaurav, Andrew and Kamil unpack the latest sell-off in global bond markets and assess the relative importance of inflation fears, fiscal concerns and changing expectations for short-term interest rates. They explore the ongoing fallout from the Iran conflict, the prospect of further rate hikes by the ECB and Bank of England, and why investors increasingly seem to believe rates could settle at a higher level than before. Despite the volatility, the team concludes that bond markets may be sending a surprisingly reassuring message about both central bank...

In this episode of The Global Economy Unwrapped, Stefan and Denise join Gaurav to unpack two big stories. First, they examine the much-anticipated Trump-Xi summit, concluding that while the optics were carefully choreographed, the outcome was largely a continuation of the existing US-China stalemate on trade, technology, Taiwan and AI. The discussion explores why stability may be the best either side can hope for.
The conversation then turns to the Middle East, where higher oil prices, disrupted shipping routes and continuing regional tensions are creating growing challenges for the world economy. The team discusses energy security, inflation risks...

With the U.K. continuing to confound expectations, Gaurav is joined by David and Andrew to assess a run of surprisingly resilient growth data and ask whether the economy is finally breaking out of its recent pattern of strong starts to the year followed by weak finishes. Consumer spending and business investment have both held up well, but rising energy prices, a soft labour market and slowing real wage growth still pose threats. The team debates the inflation outlook, whether markets have become too hawkish on Bank of England rate hikes, and whether another round of tax hikes is...

The European economy refuses to cooperate with the pessimists. Despite conflict in the Middle East, high energy prices and persistent uncertainty, euro zone growth has remained surprisingly solid with consumers proving resilient despite another blow to their purchasing power. Gaurav, Barbara, Andrew and Kamil discuss if the good news is sustainable, what is driving the recovery in sentiment, and whether weakness in investment remains a concern. After another debate over Ireland’s outsized influence on the euro zone GDP figures, and how the U.K. fits into the picture, the conversation turns to inflation, rising interest rates and whether Eu...

Gaurav, Stefan and Denise take the temperature of the Asia-Pacific economy, where the AI boom keeps powering ahead and Taiwan's exports have overtaken Japan's for the first time. The team digs into what's driving the region's K-shaped split, with chip-heavy economies like Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia posting growth north of 5% even as wages stay soft, consumers hold back, and other sectors languish. They ask whether the boom is genuinely productive or just papers over the cracks, drawing uneasy parallels with Dutch disease and tulip mania as fears of an AI bubble grow. From weak currencies, to the 'RAMpocalypse' memory...

In this episode of Global Economy Unwrapped, the GEU team tours the world, looking at risks. The global economy continues to hold up despite a number of large shocks and potential problems, so have markets become inured to geopolitical risk? The team discusses the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, persistent trade tensions, cracks in the AI boom, rising yields, and the potential for monetary policy missteps. They conclude that the global economy looks surprisingly good, but the risks are far from trivial.

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love...

Europeans may be gloomy about the economy, but they're still packing their bags. In this episode of Meet the Experts, Gaurav Ganguly and Barbara Teixeira Araujo are joined by Olia Kuranova and Jessica Demel to unpack the surprising resilience of European tourism. Why are holidays proving "non-negotiable" despite weak consumer confidence, inflation and geopolitical tensions? And how are heatwaves, wildfires and climate change beginning to reshape where, when and how Europeans travel? From revenge tourism to overtourism, and from beach holidays to climate adaptation, this episode explores the forces driving European tourism and the challenges that could redefine it.<...

How resilient is commercial real estate in a world of geopolitical shocks, shifting work patterns, and rapid advances in AI? Dominic Brown, Head of International Research at Cushman & Wakefield joins GEU for a wide-ranging discussion on the forces reshaping global property markets. From booming office demand in India and ultra-tight vacancy rates in Tokyo to the divergent fortunes of cities, sectors, and countries, the conversation explores why real estate has become more local, more granular, and more varied than ever. The episode also tackles AI's impact on office space, the race to build data centres, and whether automation will...

Gaurav, Kamil and Andrew take stock of the recent macroeconomic data for the euro zone. They talk about growth coming slightly above expectations, and why the data haven't really shown any impact from the Iran conflict. They conclude that while the exact number was a slight upside surprise relative to the forecast, it was in line with the broader macroeconomic narrative. They then turn to inflation, where data mostly came in line with expectations, but weather and energy markets are providing new headwinds. They conclude with a discussion of expectations for the European Central Bank and Bank of England...

A new prime minister in Downing Street, renewed conflict between the US and Iran, volatile oil markets and another round of US tariffs: it has been an eventful few weeks for the global economy. Andrew Hunter, Denise Cheok and Suren Vardanyan join Gaurav to assess whether Andy Burnham’s plans for devolution, investment and tax reform can lift the UK’s weak growth prospects. The discussion then turns to the Strait of Hormuz, the fragile flow of Gulf oil and a controversial proposal for voluntary transit payments to Iran. Finally, the team examines the latest US trade measures and the...

GEU calls on its experts to examine the forces shaping Asia’s economic outlook. China specialist Sarah Tan and APAC central bank watcher John Bromhead join Gaurav and Denise to discuss the region’s latest challenges. 

The team begins by reminding listeners that energy security remains a critical issue across Asia before turning to China’s slowing economy. They then explore how central banks have responded to the inflation shock of recent months, before examining the surprising turbulence in South Korea’s financial markets, where a sharp stock market correction and currency weakness appear at odds with a strong...

Gaurav, Stefan, and Denise sit down with Dong He, Chief Economist of the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office, for a wide-ranging look at Asia's economic outlook. With the ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. on shaky ground and the Strait of Hormuz back in focus, the conversation weighs up growth, inflation and energy security across the region. Dong He also shares AMRO's take on the artificial intelligence boom, central banks' next moves and where ASEAN's integration story heads next, from trade agreements to the region's digital ambitions. Along the way, the team discovers why the humble taxi app might...

Europe has built a digital architecture that is heavily reliant on the U.S. and China. It depends heavily on the former for software, cloud services, artificial intelligence and online platforms, while relying on the latter for the hardware, components and critical minerals beneath them. Two dependencies, very different in nature, both creating vulnerabilities that are difficult to unwind.

In this episode, Gaurav, Andrew and Barbara explore how Europe became so exposed, and why what once looked like ordinary commercial reliance is now seen as a strategic vulnerability. They discuss Europe's response through regulation, industrial ambition and...

With crude oil prices continuing to fall as the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens, Gaurav is joined by Barbara and Andrew to assess whether Europe is finally turning a corner. The euro zone inflation data raise hopes that the worst of the energy shock may be behind us, but the team warn of lingering risks from gas markets and delayed price pass-through still to come. The downside risks to growth have eased, but a subdued outlook persists amid growing doubts over the prospects of a consumer-led rebound. The discussion moves across the English Channel where, 10 years on from the...

Gaurav, Stefan and Denise turn their attention back to Asia-Pacific after months dominated by the Middle East conflict. With signs that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is beginning to resume, the team weighs whether the worst is over and the shock to the region's economies may yet prove transitory. They also dig into the K-shaped nature of Asian growth, where the AI boom is delivering blockbuster GDP numbers for tech-heavy economies like Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore, even as consumers struggle with elevated energy and food costs. From China's stubborn reluctance to fire a domestic demand bazooka to...

In this episode, Gaurav, Barbara, and Andrew are joined by Andrea Montanino, Chief Economist at Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, Italy, and former Executive Director at the IMF, to explore the profound transformations reshaping Europe’s economy. Framed around four key pillars—demographics, geopolitics, energy, and technology—the discussion examines the structural forces weighing on Europe’s growth and competitiveness.

As the global landscape becomes more fragmented, Andrea argues that “the world is no longer a supermarket”—with firms forced to weigh resilience, diversification, and supply chain risks alongside costs. The team also explores Europe’s trade strategy in a shifting or...

In the second part of a Europe mini-series, the focus shifts to the region’s growth outlook as the Middle East conflict weighs on momentum. Higher oil prices have led to downward revisions in growth forecasts, though the eurozone remains in a fragile expansion. Underlying domestic demand is soft: consumers remain cautious, investment is weak, and export strength reflects temporary front-loading. The episode also examines risks from prolonged oil disruptions, tighter financial conditions, and structural trade challenges, alongside potential support from fiscal policy and AI. The conclusion is that Europe is exposed to significant headwinds.

Questions or...

Inflation is again testing Europe’s policymakers, raising uncomfortable questions about how persistent recent upward pressure will prove and how best to respond. In the first part of a European special, Gaurav is joined by Kamil, Andrew and Barbara to unpack the latest euro zone inflation data and what is driving the renewed pickup in services prices. They explore the role of energy costs, insurance premiums and expectations, why the broader backdrop still looks different to 2022, but how upside risks could nonetheless intensify. The debate turns to monetary policy, assessing the case for “insurance” hikes from the ECB and contra...

Rising bond yields have moved centre stage as turmoil in the Middle East pushes up energy prices and rattles global markets. In this episode, Gaurav, Andrew, Kamil, Denise and Stefan dig into what’s driving the recent jump in government bond yields, and how much reflects inflation fears versus fiscal and political concerns. From U.K. budget worries to Asia’s vulnerability to external shocks, the team assesses who is most exposed, whether markets are overreacting, how central banks are likely to respond, and why this episode still looks less dangerous than past inflation scares. 

Questions or Co...

Gaurav is joined by Stefan, Andrew, Suren and Kamil to take stock of a global economy that is still holding up—just—three months into the Middle East conflict. Oil prices remain range‑bound for now, but the team warns that policy buffers are thinning and risks are becoming increasingly non‑linear. Asia is still benefiting from the AI boom, Europe’s economy looks more fragile as sentiment sours, while the Middle East itself faces mounting economic damage the longer the Strait of Hormuz stays constrained. With talk of messy reopenings, tipping points and mounting stagflation risks, the outlook is becomin...

Gaurav, Denise, Stefan and Andrew unpack the fallout from President Donald Trump’s closely watched meeting with President Xi Jinping in Beijing. With plenty of warm words but few concrete breakthroughs, the discussion turns to what this means for U.S.‑China trade, tariffs and the longer‑term reality of technological decoupling between the world’s superpowers. The team also explores the implications for Europe, the continued risks from the Iran conflict and disruption in global energy markets, and whether Asia’s AI‑fuelled growth boom can really offset rising oil prices and mounting geopolitical strain.

Questions or...

Gaurav is joined by Andrew and David for a long-overdue deep dive into the U.K, where the Middle East conflict has darkened the growth and inflation picture just as the economy seemed to be stabilising. The team debate whether the economy’s surprisingly good start to the year reflects genuine strength or lingering seasonal quirks in the data, and why the surveys now point to a sharp slowdown. They also explore the implications for the labour market, housing, and the public finances, before asking what all this means for the Bank of England—as bond markets brace for high...

Gala Riani, Head of Strategic Intelligence at SRM joins Gaurav, Suren and Barbara for an in‑depth conversation that explores the continued crisis in the Middle East. The discussion explores how the conflict has shifted from a military confrontation to an economic campaign, with a focus on U.S. strategy, Iran’s internal political dynamics, and the growing role of economic pressure and blockades. Riani offers sharp insights into Tehran’s decision-making, divisions within the regime, the influence of external actors such as China and Russia, and the prospects for negotiations. The episode also examines the outlook for the Strait...

In this episode of The Global Economy Unwrapped, Gaurav Ganguly is joined by Andrew Hunter, Kamil Kovar, and Barbara Teixeira Araújo to discuss the team’s expectations for the conflict in the Middle East and its implications for the European outlook. The panel agrees that the most likely path forward is a messy reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, though there is less consensus on how quickly this will materialize. They then assess the inflationary consequences, emphasizing that the duration of elevated oil prices is the key determinant of indirect and second‑round effects. The discussion also turns to mo...

Gaurav, Denise and Stefan reconvene after their recent webinar to tackle the flood of audience questions on the Middle East conflict and its global spillovers. They unpack different conflict scenarios, trace the knock‑on effects across energy, supply chains and commodity markets, and assess how vulnerable Asia‑Pacific is to another major price shock. The conversation then turns to growth risks across APAC and the GCC, debating whether today's disruption stays manageable and what it could mean for longer‑term energy policy choices. They also dig into financial markets, from FX volatility to capital flows and investor nerves, and revisi...

Dr Henry Wang, President of the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing and a member of several international think tanks, joins GEU for a wide‑ranging discussion on China and its evolving role on the global stage. The conversation opens with China’s efforts to mediate an end to the current conflict in the Middle East, before turning to U.S.–China relations and what to expect from the forthcoming meeting between the leaders of the world’s two superpowers. Dr Wang also reflects on China’s growth story, its current economic challenges, investment ties with Europe, and the role o...

Gaurav and the GEU team take listeners on a tour of the global risk landscape. The discussion begins in the Middle East, where conflict is disrupting energy markets, creating significant security concerns and weighing on growth. Meanwhile, Asia's reliance on Gulf energy collides with higher prices, supply‑chain strains and trade tensions – even as the AI‑driven export boom offers a buffer. The tour ends in Europe, where fragile growth and policy trade‑offs underline how global shocks are becoming increasingly intertwined.

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear fro...

Gaurav, Denise and Stefan meet to dig into the impact of the Middle East conflict on APAC economies. They discuss which countries could eventually run into trouble if the energy and food price shock drags on, and what governments can do to mitigate the fallout. The conversation then turns to China and the updated priorities set out at this year’s Two Sessions meeting. How does Beijing view the spillover from the Middle East conflict? Could China benefit from the U.S. being preoccupied elsewhere? And why do pork prices matter so much for China’s economy?

Qu...

GEU sits down with David Boling, Principal at The Asia Group, to unpack what Japan is walking into as Prime Minister Takaichi heads to Washington and conflict in the Middle East rattles energy markets. Oil supply chains are under strain, the yen wobbles, and U.S. President Donald Trump shows no sign of easing his tariff instincts. Japan clearly has its work cut out. Can Tokyo still lean on old alliances and familiar playbooks in a world that feels more fractured and transactional? Boling walks through the risks and what Japan needs to get right.

Questions...

Gaurav, Kamil and Stefan unpack the latest developments in the Middle East conflict and what they mean for the global economy. The world still runs on oil, and Middle East producers are keen to sell, but the Strait of Hormuz blockage is squeezing supply routes and pushing storage higher, with production cuts looming. The team asks what all of this means for Europe, APAC and the broader global outlook, weighing up winners and losers. In markets moving by the hour, even keeping track of the day of the week has become a challenge.

Questions or Comments...

GEU unpacks the broader fallout of the strikes against Iran. Energy prices have jumped, and a risk-off sentiment prevails in markets. There is a danger that the situation could get worse. Iran has retaliated, and a number of countries in the region have come under attack. Despite the worrying news, the team explains why it believes the conflict will end in a matter of weeks and why the global economy will prove resilient. And while strikes across the region are alarming, Gulf Cooperation Council economies have sufficient depth and resilience, so the regional economic hit should also remain small.<...

Join Gaurav Ganguly, chief international economist at Moody’s Analytics, as he unpacks the forces shaping the global economy. In Global Economy Unwrapped, Gaurav is joined by members of Moody’s Analytics economic research team to discuss key indicators, underlying trends, and evolving risks—offering sharp, data-driven insights from a global perspective.

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.

To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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Gaurav and the GEU crew break down the U.S. Supreme Court decision striking down President Trump's sweeping global tariffs, and what his replacement 15% tariff means for trade, supply chains, and global growth. The team debates who wins, who loses, and whether firms will rush to front-load shipments again before barriers rise anew. The conversation then turns to the dollar. What could trigger a sudden depreciation, and how would it ripple through balance sheets, trade, and the real economy?

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. <...

David and Andrew join Gaurav to discuss the latest U.K. economic data and the outlook. While U.K. economic prospects remain quite subdued, the unemployment rate should level off this year, and an imminent easing in the inflation rate is a notable bright spot. Another rate cut by the Bank of England looks to be just around the corner. However, the return of political uncertainty is a less welcome development. The team also touches on investment in artificial intelligence and its implications for employment in the U.K.’s services-oriented economy.

Questions or Comments, please em...

Gaurav, Suren, Stefan and Denise get together to unpack a flurry of trade developments in Asia. The U.S. and India announce a trade deal that cut tariffs from 50% to 25%, but with scant details. The team discuss the possibility of India halting purchases of Russian oil and committing to $500 billion in U.S. goods. What would a shift towards Venezuelan oil look like? Elsewhere, Taiwan reaches its own trade agreement with Washington, while South Korea faces higher U.S. tariffs after delays in legislating its deal. The team rounds up with a quick discussion on unusual currency movements in...

Gaurav and the EMEA team are back for a surprisingly upbeat roundup of all things Europe. Barbara and Kamil discuss the better-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP figures, with even Germany finally showing signs of a revival. With the business surveys improving and Germany’s huge fiscal package set to feed through, is the euro zone economy set for more robust growth in 2026 than previously thought? Meanwhile, the immediate crisis over Greenland appears to have faded with President Trump dropping his tariff threats, but Andrew questions whether this was driven more by domestic U.S. politics rather than Europe’s response. Finally, the...

Gaurav, Denise, and Stefan get together to discuss what drove Asia-Pacific in 2025 and what lies ahead in 2026. Exports surprised on the upside, with China posting a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus despite higher U.S. tariffs. Denise points to rerouting and shifting supply chains, while Gaurav argues that Chinese competitiveness does much of the work. The outlook for 2026 looks far less comfortable. Geopolitics and tariffs dominate the risks, with U.S.-China relations facing a key test ahead of the planned Trump-Xi meeting in April. Tensions closer at home are another concern, as Beijing ramps up its diplomatic feud with...