The Diff
The Diff is a newsletter exploring the technologies, companies, and trends that are making the future high-variance. Posts range from in-depth company profiles, applied financial theory, strategy breakdowns and macroeconomics.
Robots Are Coming for Jobs That Don't Exist Yet
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Robots Are Coming for Jobs That Don't Exist Yet (07:28) - Scale (08:20) - Preorders (08:55) - Politics (09:58) - Funding (10:55) - Investor Relations
Doing Business in the Dark Forest
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Doing Business in the Dark Forest (06:30) - Stock-Based Compensation (07:53) - Infra (08:58) - Balance Sheets (10:46) - An Ownership Society (12:15) - The Sonic Boom of Trust
The Super-Rich as Financial Sin-Eaters
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - The Super-Rich as Financial Sin-Eaters (06:45) - Adversarial Adoption (07:52) - Rates (08:39) - Scale (09:53) - Talking Your Book (10:43) - Revenue
Life with Nonzero Interest Rates
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Life with Nonzero Interest Rates (05:18) - Stimulus (05:55) - Ads (06:38) - Gambling (07:31) - Acqui-hires (08:46) - IPOs
How Far in the Future Should You Be Trying to Live?
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - How Far in the Future Should You Be Trying to Live? (04:42) - Spillover Effects (05:36) - Frictional Costs (06:22) - Airgaps (08:04) - Poaching and Context (09:05) - Open Weight
Forward Deployed
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Forward Deployed (37:12) - Felonybench (38:59) - Frontier Capabilities (40:10) - SEO (41:06) - Company Demographic Pyramids (42:17) - Fighting for Inference
The Economics and Politics of Pacing the Frontier
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - The Economics and Politics of Pacing the Frontier (06:37) - Reflexive Funding (07:57) - Insider Trades (08:56) - Reference Implementation (10:40) - Margins (12:47) - Law Enforcement
Staying Calibrated
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Staying Calibrated (07:16) - Transparency (08:35) - Disclosure (09:20) - Credit Ratings (10:58) - AI Jobs (12:15) - Branding Inference
The Surprisingly Weak IPO-Housing Effect
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - The Surprisingly Weak IPO-Housing Effect (06:28) - Bottlenecks (07:32) - More Bottlenecks (08:22) - Disjoint Models (09:06) - Aligning Incentives (09:40) - Momentum
Ad-Supported Platforms are a Unique Antitrust Problem
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Ad-Supported Platforms are a Unique Antitrust Problem (08:38) - Brittle Buyers (09:17) - Rates (10:32) - Substitution Effects (11:12) - Demand (11:50) - Trades
Financial Entrepreneurship in the Indexing Era
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Financial Entrepreneurship in the Indexing Era (07:24) - Easy As (08:27) - Missing Estimates (09:18) - Oil (09:58) - Off-Balance Sheet (11:07) - Turnover
FP&A as the Telemetry and Counterespionage
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - FP&A as the Telemetry and Counterespionage (09:21) - 0.5x AI (11:46) - Media Incentives (12:31) - Infrastructure (13:23) - Perks (14:02) - Externalities
Who Hedges Where?
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Who Hedges Where? (06:49) - Ads for Bots (07:43) - Authenticity (08:35) - The AI Race (09:32) - Priority Disputes (10:48) - Mission
What We Periodically Relearn About Rent Control
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - What We Periodically Relearn About Rent Control (12:54) - Backstops (14:42) - Complements and Substitutes (15:36) - Personality Hire (16:29) - Commoditization (17:04) - IPOs
The Lots-of-Low-Satiety-Calories Business Isn't What it Used to Be
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Has AI Art Been Tried? (04:38) - Pricing (05:17) - Rewrites (06:46) - Distribution (07:35) - Trading Your PA (08:44) - Managed Markets
The Bad Apple Problem
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Has AI Art Been Tried? (04:38) - Pricing (05:17) - Rewrites (06:46) - Distribution (07:35) - Trading Your PA (08:44) - Managed Markets
Cultural Stasis? Or Just Rising Budgets, a Limited Supply of Good Movie Release Dates, and the Kelly Criterion?
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Cultural Stasis? Or Just Rising Budgets, a Limited Supply of Good Movie Release Dates, and the Kelly Criterion? (09:20) - MTurk, RIP (10:42) - The Economist Cover Indicator (12:15) - AI Cycles (13:13) - Narratives (14:13) - Intrusions
The Mythical Agent-Minute
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - The Mythical Agent-Minute (07:08) - AI, Globalization, and Comparative Advantage in Lobbying (08:16) - Media M&A (09:41) - Retaliatory Tariffs (10:15) - Capex (10:52) - Pivots
Blind Extrapolation as a Powerful Force in Finance
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Blind Extrapolation as a Powerful Force in Finance (07:50) - Midjourney Medical (11:10) - Chips (12:02) - Financial Engineering (12:39) - Rigged Games (13:30) - Reality is the Complement
What Does it Mean to Have a Trillion Dollars?
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - What Does it Mean to Have a Trillion Dollars? (09:47) - Anthropic (11:04) - Mean and Variance (12:17) - Fragmentation (13:37) - Guidance (15:58) - Slightly-Heterodox Center-X
It's Maturity Transformation All The Way Down
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - It's Maturity Transformation All The Way Down (06:17) - Weather (07:19) - Adverse Selection (08:33) - Compute, and P/S Ratios (09:46) - Software PE (10:48) - Automation and Utilization
Using AI for Writing like a Responsible Adult
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Using AI for Writing like a Responsible Adult (06:25) - Granular Price Discrimination (07:04) - ETFs (07:52) - Form Factors (08:41) - Training Data
The Rocketship
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - The Rocketship (08:52) - Unit Economics (10:01) - Rearrangements (10:42) - Vibeslop (11:35) - Mindshare (12:08) - Consumption Equality
What Can You Learn from a Deterministically Chaotic Market Simulation?
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - (07:19) - Prediction Markets (08:18) - Exotics (09:34) - Binning (10:38) - Unpopular AI (11:51) - The Rebalancing Trade
Why does Resource Extraction Produce Such Concentrated Wealth?
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Why does Resource Extraction Produce Such Concentrated Wealth? (08:30) - RLHF (10:17) - When Will AI Show Up in Labor Market Data? (11:16) - Aligning Incentives (12:00) - Local Volatility (12:41) - FDE Shortage
Dead Airlines
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Dead Airlines (04:46) - Synergy (06:02) - Indexes (06:58) - Warehousing (07:53) - Capacity (08:43) - Defense
Are the AI Labs Ready for the AI Backlash?
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Are the AI Labs Ready for the AI Backlash? (06:27) - Barter (08:06) - State Hypercapitalism (09:05) - AI Pricing (10:05) - Reflexivity (10:48) - Complements
Ad-Based Platforms Have Mostly Solved Optimal Taxation
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Ad-Based Platforms Have Mostly Solved Optimal Taxation (08:06) - The Infrastructure Put Option (09:14) - Monetization (10:03) - Headless SaaS (11:36) - Gazumped! (12:49) - Bits and Barrels
Ring, Cloudflare, and the Supply Chain of State Capacity
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Ring, Cloudflare, and the Supply Chain of State Capacity (08:32) - Work Trials (09:43) - The Mezzanine Tranche (10:29) - Politics by Other Means (12:51) - Lawyers (13:51) - Token Shortages
Uncanny AI
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Uncanny AI (05:39) - Organic Content (06:22) - Inconsistent Candor (07:28) - Liquidity (08:22) - Return to Office (09:06) - Long-Lead Time Hacking
Handy Robots
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Handy Robots (08:25) - It's Personal (10:03) - Rationing (10:37) - Penny Stocks (11:47) - The Text Glut (13:34) - Sora
Apple, Occasionally a Commodities Trading House
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Apple, Occasionally a Commodities Trading House (06:08) - How Inflation Spreads (07:50) - Reaching Your Target Audience (10:00) - Labor Substitution (11:05) - Agents (12:04) - Financing
Are We Already Building a Piecemeal AI Data Royalty Model?
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Are We Already Building a Piecemeal AI Data Royalty Model? (05:30) - Refounding (06:20) - User Acquisition Costs (07:09) - Data Sharing (08:05) - Fees
America Has a Comparative Advantage in Handling Global Disorder
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - America Has a Comparative Advantage in Handling Global Disorder (08:14) - A Word From Our Sponsors (08:17) - Where We Are in the Cycle (09:47) - Insurer of Last Resort (10:27) - Marketplaces and Routers (11:10) - Getting a Bid (12:14) - Talent
The Year of Convergence
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - The Year of Convergence (09:03) - Ads (10:10) - Maximalism (10:50) - Comparative Advantage (11:35) - Trader-in-Chief (12:20) - GenAI
Routers, Apps, AGI
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Routers, Apps, AGI (23:09) - Peripheral Bets (23:59) - Fragmentation and Industry Maturity (24:35) - Deepfakes as Pull Quotes (25:12) - Benchmarks (26:15) - Platforms
In Defense of Generative Video Accelerationism
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - In Defense of Generative Video Accelerationism (14:12) - Notifications (15:14) - IP (16:09) - Hyperliquidated (17:45) - DOGE (19:11) - Painting the Tape
Technological Progress is a Stack of S-Curves; Diffusion is a Stack of J-Curves
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Technological Progress is a Stack of S-Curves; Diffusion is a Stack of J-Curves (10:01) - AI Efficiency (10:54) - Dollar Diplomacy (11:48) - Sora (12:44) - Capital Structure (14:12) - Reshoring Paradoxes
Media Gluts Happen at the Level of Distribution, not Content
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Media Gluts Happen at the Level of Distribution, not Content (09:16) - Headline Risk (10:02) - The Crypto Treasury Trade (11:10) - The Paradox of Decentralization (12:08) - TikTok (13:04) - Signal and Noise
A Sense of History
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - A Sense of History (09:30) - Coasian Labor Markets (12:06) - Industrial Policy (13:05) - Trading (13:41) - TikTok (14:52) - Crypto Treasury M&A
