Macrocast by FTP & Markets Policy Partners

With the midterm elections days away, our hosts examine what the results could mean for both governance and financial markets.

Special guests Rick Murphy and Michael Williams of FTP open with a look at the polling trends. Democrats appear likely to take the House, while control of the Senate remains highly competitive. They discuss why rural voter turnout and candidate quality could be the deciding factors, and debate how much charisma, or “rizz,” shapes modern campaigns. They also consider what a divided government would mean in practice: potentially limited legislative output, with oversight likely becoming the main focu...

This week on the Macrocast, Doug Usher, PhD, an FTP partner who leads insights and data analytics, joins the team to break down the November 3rd elections. Polls currently favor Democrats, but he explains why the results could be closer than expected, given high expectations in traditionally Republican states like Iowa, Ohio, Texas, and Kansas.

The conversation covers how polling has shifted from phone calls to online surveys, along with focus group findings showing that skeptical voters care more about who delivers a message than what it says. Doug also discusses the shift in voter concerns from...

This week on the Macrocast, the team breaks down a hotter-than-expected inflation report, driven largely by gasoline. They look at how higher costs are reaching consumers, why retail sales outside of gas are softening, and what it means for the Fed's October decision. 

The conversation also covers market volatility, a Treasury rally, and how high capital costs are weighing on AI. The team reviews mixed bank earnings, considers midterm regulatory risks for AI and data centers, and touches on Tesla's Roadster reveal before looking ahead to a quieter week for data. 

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This week on the Macrocast, CivicScience’s John Dick joins the team to discuss economic sentiment, declining optimism about personal finances, and why holiday spending plans remain strong despite consumer concerns. They also explore consumer credit trends, buy now, pay later options, and how rising interest rates are affecting major purchases.

With the midterms approaching, the conversation turns to Americans’ political mood, with Ed Hill weighing in on campaign fundraising and turnout expectations. The team also covers Treasury market volatility, expectations for the Fed’s next rate hike, and recent developments in AI stocks.

For more a...

This week on the Macrocast, the team breaks down a weaker-than-expected September jobs report, with just 29,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate ticking up as the labor force expanded. They also discuss softer wage growth, the latest PCE inflation data, and why markets have pulled back expectations for an October Federal Reserve rate hike.

With the midterms approaching, the conversation turns to the policy issues likely to shape the months ahead. The team covers energy-market uncertainty and the potential consequences of a U.S. crude oil export ban, pressure in European debt markets, and recent movement on...

This week, the Macrocast team examines renewed turbulence in the Treasury market as longer-term yields climb amid stronger economic data, persistent inflation concerns, weak auction demand, and a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. John, Brendan, and Ed Hill unpack what is driving the latest move in rates and what it could mean for markets.

The team also turns to the Trump-Xi summit, the outlook for energy markets, and growing geopolitical risks. They discuss the latest developments in U.S.-China relations, the continued momentum behind AI-related stocks, and the economic and policy developments to watch...

The Fed raised rates again, but the bigger story may be what comes next. Trevor from FTP fills in for Ed this week to break down the latest data, the pressure building around the October meeting, and why markets are watching every signal from Washington.

The team also looks at the economic trouble brewing overseas, from China’s slowdown and property-market struggles to trade tensions with China and Canada. It is a fast-moving week for the global economy, and the Macrocast has the context behind the headlines.

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This week, the Macrocast team is joined by frequent contributor John Dick of CivicScience to take the pulse of the U.S. consumer heading into the fall. The latest Economic Sentiment Index showed only a slight improvement, reflecting a consumer who is still unsettled. Americans feel conflicted about their own finances and the job market but remain downbeat on the broader economy. With inflation still weighing on household budgets, caution is creeping into decisions around major purchases, investments, and financial security.

The team also breaks down the latest inflation data and what it could mean for the...

This week's episode covers August's jobs report, which beat expectations with solid job growth and upward revisions to prior months. 

The strong data pushed up the odds of a September rate hike, though dovish comments from Governor Christopher Waller left the team divided on the Fed's next move. They also previewed upcoming PPI and CPI data, plus global pressures like elevated EU inflation and continued supply chain strain.

On geopolitics, the team discussed rising China tensions ahead of the Trump-Xi summit. Ed Hill wrapped up with a Capitol Hill update: the House's continuing resolution avoiding a...

This week, the Macrocast team breaks down Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, where he flagged persistent above-target inflation even as he acknowledged a resilient economy, a clearer signal than the Fed has sent in months. Markets responded by pricing in higher odds of a September rate hike, though the long end of the Treasury curve moved more than policymakers would like, complicating the picture.

They cover Treasury Secretary Bessent's intervention in the long end Treasury market, new sanctions on Iranian financial networks, and close with what's ahead: next week's jobs report, which could be the deciding...

This week, the Macrocast team is joined by frequent contributor John Dick of CivicScience for a read on the U.S. consumer heading into the fall. Sentiment bounced back after a steep prior decline and household financial health improved again, but the retail picture remains uneven: Walmart guided to its slowest same-store sales growth in years while Target surprised to the upside. 

The team discusses strong back-to-school spending, early holiday intentions, rising credit card balances among younger consumers, and how retailers may deploy tariff refunds into lower prices. The team closes with progress toward a U.S...

This week on the Macrocast, John Fagan is out, so Ed Hill and Brendan Walsh hold down the fort, breaking down the latest inflation data and what it could mean for the Fed's next move. They also dig into a weaker-than-expected retail sales report and recent earnings from Tapestry and Cisco, with Cisco's numbers pointing to continued strength in AI-driven demand.

The conversation turns to a major financing push tied to AI infrastructure that's drawing attention across markets, along with a look at a relatively quiet week on the geopolitical front.

For more about the h...

This week, the Macrocast team unpacks a July jobs report that missed expectations by a wide margin, with payrolls declining even as the unemployment rate ticked lower, a divergence Brendan partially attributes to workers exiting the labor force. The discussion turns to the hardest-hit sectors, a surprising bright spot in manufacturing, and what stagnant wage growth signals about the broader economy.

John and Brendan explore how the data shifted rate expectations for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and pulled Treasury yields down, alongside Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's critique of the Fed's communication strategy and the joint U.S...

This week, the Macrocast team examines the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting, where Chair Kevin Walsh held rates steady while maintaining his stance against forward guidance, a decision that drove Treasury yields higher and weighed on equities. The team discusses why the rate hold met expectations, yet a lack of clarity on inflation metrics and the Fed's decision-making framework left markets and analysts wanting more.

The episode also covers steady policy from the Bank of Japan and Bank of England, the market impact of a major hedge fund's liquidation of AI-related positions, and MAG7 earnings that showed...

This week on the Macrocast, John Fagan and Ed Hill examine the renewed U.S.-Iran conflict and its effect on oil markets, with Brent crude climbing above $100 a barrel. The discussion turns to the Federal Reserve, where Chair Kevin Warsh's approach of "constructive ambiguity" leaves markets uncertain ahead of the next meeting, alongside notable policy moves from the ECB and Bank of Japan.

The episode also covers the Trump administration's latest tariff announcements and their firmer legal basis, along with key developments in Washington: progress on the NDAA, reconciliation, and a continuing resolution, plus new obstacles...

This week on the Macrocast, Brendan and Ed were joined by frequent guest John Dick of CivicScience to review his latest Economic Sentiment Index. John discussed the continued improvement of consumer sentiment, indicating that, while still below last year's readings, the consumer continues to feel increasingly comfortable with their economic status. The group discussed how this summer's readings seem to reflect a generally positive cultural and economic vibe, with a record-breaking Prime Day from last month, positive vibes from an exciting and successful World Cup, and celebration of America's 250th birthday. John also commented on small changes in the...

This week on Macrocast, the team breaks down Chair Warsh's first moves at the helm of a divided FOMC and what the June meeting minutes reveal about the growing rift between hawks and doves. Market odds on a rate hike remain low for now but are expected to climb in the months ahead. The episode digs into what's driving that shift.

The team covers mixed economic signals, with strong ISM services data colliding against declining manufacturing employment. Also on the agenda: the resumption of US-Iran hostilities after their ceasefire ended, sending oil prices higher, though still holding...

This week on the Macrocast, the team analyzes the latest jobs report numbers, including labor market pressures and a surprising contraction in the leisure and hospitality sector. The discussion then turns to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's debut at a central bank conference in Portugal, where his focus on inflation and a lack of forward guidance left markets weighing potential rate hikes ahead of the midterm elections. The episode also covers key policy updates from Washington, including the bipartisan passage of a housing bill through Congress, before closing with a look at the World Cup.

From the entire...

Financial markets had a turbulent week, and the Macrocast team is sorting through the noise. Chip prices are climbing, semiconductor valuations look stretched, and investors are pulling back on AI-adjacent bets. Brendan explains what's driving the selloff and whether it's a correction or something more serious.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is keeping rates elevated while inflation stays sticky, and the newly announced Iran oil deal hasn't delivered the oil price relief markets expected. Abroad, Prime Minister Starmer's government faces a mounting fiscal crisis and Japan's yen has fallen to its weakest level in four decades. Ed closes...

In this episode, Macrocast regular John Dick of CivicScience joins the team to unpack the latest consumer sentiment numbers. The Economic Sentiment Index just hit its highest point since mid-April, retail sales came in nearly double expectations, and yet housing starts dropped to a six-year low. So what's actually going on with the American consumer?

They also get into how much sports and cultural moments like the World Cup are moving spending patterns, plus Ed's read on new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish debut and what it means for rates by year-end. They close out on the...

In this episode of the Macrocast, John, Brendan and Ed kick off with a discussion of this week's U.S. inflation data. The analyze both the CPI and PPI, noting that despite the elevated numbers, especially for producers, markets took the data in stride.

Next, they discussed the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the first with Kevin Warsh as Chair. They cover his views on the correct measure of inflation, possible changes to Fed communications going forward, and the challenges of chairing the Committee where all the other members have roles independent of his influence.

In this episode of the Macrocast, John, Brendan, and Ed break down a surprisingly strong jobs report and what it is doing to expectations for markets and the Fed. They look at the mixed reaction across stocks and bonds, the shift in market leadership, and what it all signals for the path ahead.

The conversation also steps back to cover upcoming tech IPOs, rising geopolitical tensions, and key policy debates in Washington. They finish with a broader view of the global economy and the pressures building across different regions.

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This week on the Macrocast, the team broke down the market’s reaction to potential Iran deal developments, exploring how lower oil prices and a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could ease inflation pressures and influence Treasury yields. They also discussed the challenges facing incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh as the Fed continues to navigate sticky inflation and a still-hawkish policy backdrop.

The episode also explored rising concerns around the AI trade, tech stock concentration, and whether the broader market rally may be starting to lose momentum. Ed shared updates from Capitol Hill, including bipartisan ef...

The Macrocast this week turns to healthcare and biotech with special guest Barrett Thornhill of FTP joining John Fagan, Ed Hill, and Brendan Walsh. 

China’s biotech boom is front and center, with more than half of global clinical trials now coming out of China. A faster, lower-cost regulatory system is driving that shift and forcing a rethink of how drug development competes globally. Barrett unpacks what this means for U.S. pharma, FDA reform pressure, and who leads innovation going forward.

The group also covers China’s growing role in pharmaceutical manufacturing, and the macro...

This week on the Macrocast, the team is joined by John Dick of CivicScience to discuss a surprising rebound in the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI), driven in part by improving outlook on the U.S. economy and the impact of tax refund season.

The conversation also covers growing concerns around AI and the labor market, shifting housing trends as more Americans consider moving due to cost-of-living pressures, and major policy developments including President Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi and bipartisan momentum behind cryptocurrency regulation in Congress.

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This week on the Macrocast, the team breaks down a stronger than expected April jobs report showing 115,000 new jobs and what it suggests about continued labor market strength and market expectations around growth and policy. The discussion then turns to rising geopolitical tensions between Iran and the U.S. and the resulting pressure on oil prices, inflation dynamics, and energy sensitive sectors.

The episode also covers key policy developments including potential changes in Fed leadership, emerging Senate efforts on crypto regulation, and growing concerns around proposed AI oversight frameworks. The team closes with a preview of next...

This week on Macrocast, the team examines Fed Chair Powell’s decision to remain beyond his tenure as chair and what it means for Fed independence as Kevin Warsh prepares to take over. The discussion also touches on the labor market and whether there is a case for interest rate cuts, weighing factors like inflation, the impact of AI on employment, and broader economic signals. The episode closes with a look at the AI boom and its effect on markets, the surge in data center anxiety, and updates from Washington.

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This week on the Macrocast, the team digs into the latest economic data and what it is signaling for the broader outlook, though as they joke, it is starting to feel a bit like Groundhog Day. Geopolitical tensions with Iran continue to loom, keeping energy markets unsettled and making it harder for broader risk sentiment to find direction. Inflation remains in focus as well, with energy price pressures adding another layer of uncertainty to the path ahead.

On the political side, the run-up to the midterms is starting to pick up pace, bringing markets another variable to w...

This week on the Macrocast, the whole team, with special guest John Dick returning, breaks down the latest inflation data and what it signals for the U.S. economy. They go through CPI, recent inflation trends, and moves in gas prices as markets reassess the path for prices and policy.

The discussion also turns to artificial intelligence and its accelerating impact on growth, productivity, and market expectations. On the geopolitical side, they look at the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and its implications for energy markets and inflation pressures.

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This week on the Macrocast, John Fagan and Brendan Walsh discuss a busy stretch of economic data coming out this week, along with key developments in markets and geopolitics.

Geopolitical risk tied to Iran continues to drive volatility, with particular attention on the Strait of Hormuz and its implications for global energy markets and inflation expectations. 

For more about the hosts, please see below: 

Markets Policy Partners

This week on the Macrocast, John Fagan is joined by special guest Trevor Hanger to examine the outlook for the U.S. economy as markets balance resilient data with rising risks. They cover shifting expectations for monetary policy, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaling a more cautious, wait-and-see approach.

Risk tied to Iran remains central, driving volatility in energy markets and complicating the inflation outlook. From an investor perspective, they explore how markets are navigating policy uncertainty, tariffs, and geopolitical developments.

The episode also marks one year since the “Liberation Day” tariff announcements that shook fina...

This week on the Macrocast, the team examines rising oil prices and their impact on gas markets, along with heightened market volatility amid global uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions in Iran continue to influence investor sentiment, while recent chaos on the Hill, including airport shutdowns and the DHS funding deal, has made headlines. Housing data shows prices remaining elevated, and the discussion turns to the SAVE Act and its ongoing political implications. 

Looking ahead, next week’s economic releases are on the radar, including European inflation, global manufacturing updates, and U.S. retail sales and jobs numbers.

For...

This week on the Macrocast, special guests Trevor Hanger and John Dick join the team to break down key developments across the economy, politics, and markets. John Dick shares new survey data and insights on consumer sentiment and rising gasoline prices. The team also discusses the conflict in Iran and resulting market volatility, as well as Chair Jerome Powell and the possibility he may remain in his role longer than expected. 

Trevor Hanger weighs in on the SAVE America Act and voter fraud debates. With March Madness fever at an all-time high, the team dives into the t...

This week on the Macrocast, the team covers the Senate’s bipartisan ROAD to Housing Act and its potential effects on housing markets. They break down the ongoing DHS funding impasse, discuss the planned Kevin Warsh hearing in the Senate Banking Committee, and assess the broader market implications of Iran tensions and rising gas prices. The episode closes with a look ahead to next week’s central bank activity, highlighting what investors and policymakers will be watching as the economic data calendar quiets. 

For more about the hosts, please see below: 

Forbes Tate Partners

Mark...

This week on the Macrocast, Trevor Hanger of Forbes Tate Partners joins the team to discuss the conflict with Iran, assessing energy market volatility and its domestic ripple effects. Shifting focus to the 2026 election cycle, the group analyzes the variables shaping the midterm election as the primary season heats up, including the impact of tariffs. The episode concludes with a look at the DHS shutdown, housing policy, and the global and domestic economic data to watch.

For more about the hosts, please see below: 

Forbes Tate Partners

Markets Policy Partners

This week on the Macrocast, the team is joined by John Dick of CivicScience to discuss AI adoption, consumer behavior, and the growing anxiety around AI tools.

This episode also dives into economic data, including the latest PPI report, which came in much higher than expected and could eventually feed through to consumer prices, along with broader implications for markets and policy. 

Plus, a look at Fed-related news, including insights on Kevin Warsh and the nomination process for the Fed Chair, and what it all could mean for monetary policy in the weeks ahead.

This week on the Macrocast, the team unpacks the latest inflation and employment data, examining what stubborn price pressures and the labor market mean for the Fed and the economy. They dive into the ongoing small government shutdown, equity market trends, and why chatter about a potential U.S. military engagement in Iran hasn’t moved markets. Tune in for a clear, concise breakdown of the numbers, policy developments, and market sentiment shaping today’s economic landscape.

For more about the hosts, please see below:

Forbes Tate Partners

Markets Policy Partners

This week on Macrocast, the team covers stronger-than-expected January jobs and inflation data, along with shifting consumer sentiment. They also explore the Fed outlook, the upcoming Senate confirmation process for Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh, and the ongoing Fed investigation. In addition, they dig into the Japanese economy, the latest crypto selloff and regulatory updates, and the risk of a partial government shutdown as Congress heads into recess. 

For more about the hosts, please see below: 

Forbes Tate Partners

Markets Policy Partners

This week on The Macrocast, the team is joined by Trevor Hanger of Forbes Tate Partners, to discuss the surge in AI investment, what it means for markets, and where the broader economy may be headed as technology, policy, and market momentum continue to collide. 

This episode dives into broader economic outlook, including market expectations under the Trump administration, speculation around future Federal Reserve leadership, and the growing debate over how AI could reshape the workforce and whether policy is prepared for that shift.

Plus, a look ahead at key data and events, including upcoming F...

This week on The Macrocast, the episode dives into growing speculation over future Federal Reserve leadership, with former Fed governor Kevin Warsh emerging as the likely successor. It explores how a more dovish versus more hawkish chair could shape markets, borrowing costs, and the broader economic outlook in the years ahead.

The episode also covers Trump-era tariffs and the Supreme Court’s delayed ruling, recent developments in crypto policy, and the latest PPI release as we look toward next week’s CPI report.

As always, The Macrocast breaks down economic and political trends, giving listeners insi...