Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

The white-hot semiconductor sector has rocketed to 18% of the market capitalization of the S&P 500 index.

And while this trade has propelled the S&P higher, it's starting to show signs that it may be sputtering out.

A head & shoulders formation appears to be forming. If confirmed, then it's highly likely semis will pull the overall down with them as they correct.

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the odds of this, as well as the overall status of the AI trade, the latest jobs numbers, the resumption of kinetics between the...

After years of refusing to lower prices, more and more home sellers are starting to throw in the towel, says housing analyst Nick Gerli of Reventure Consulting.And as more distressed inventory hits the market, we're starting to see "crash pricing" in certain markets.The trend is early, and prices will likely still fall further.But as Nick walks us through in this video, if you're scrappy and can negotiate well, your odds of buying a house today at 2019 prices are getting a lot better.For a very important housing market update, watch this video.

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WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comHedge fund manager & activist investor Eric Jackson makes his living betting big on "story" stocks.So, what does he think about the prospects for the recent SpaceX IPO?Given its sheer size alone, whatever it does from here will apply a significant gravitational force on the market.The question is: will it pull the market up? Or down?For a deep dive into SpaceX -- plus some other stocks he thinks could be big movers over the coming year...

After bottoming early this year, the US dollar has been on a tear.That has created a lot of pain for many countries around the world, as many imports priced in dollars have risen in response to the Iran war oil shock AND the increase in the dollar.It has been a double-whammy for them.A triple-whammy actually, when you take into accounts the cost of servicing any dollar-denominated debts.And this could get worse as the Fourth Turning plays out, warns macro analyst George Gammon. Should the dollar strengthen further, it will be a wrecking ball for much...

Happy 250th birthday, America!On this special edition Market Recap, portfolio manager Lance Roberts shares his concern about forward earnings estimates.They've been rising so far, so fast, that there's a real risk now that reality won't be able to meet them.And once the Wall Street analysts realize that, they're going to have to adjust downwards -- which will pull stock prices down with them.Lance and I discuss the odds and potential timing of such a repricing, as well as the latest jobs numbers, the challenges of the "sandwich" generation, and of course, Lance's firm's latest trades...

Darius Dale notes that the risk of a 1998-style correction in the next quarter or two is "high".If you remember, that's when the Russian debt default plunged the S&P by -15% between July and October, and Long Term Capital Management imploded.This is notable because Darius has been a consistent bull since stocks bottomed out in late 2022.It's not all gloom, though. If the market indeed corrects, he then expects a dovish Fed response to send stocks higher in 2027.For all the details, watch this video.

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Stephanie Pomboy of MacroMavens returned for her latest monthly update.She sees mounting stresses in consumer households, private credit and oil markets.So, exactly WHEN does she think these will actually matter to markets?Her current expectation is that our political leaders will do their utmost to contain them until after the mid-term elections in November.But once those are over?.....Watch out.For a very important discussion with Stephanie, watch this video.

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The continued challenging cost of living is still at the forefront of most Americans minds, but the stock market -- trading near record highs -- appears it couldn't care less.And the economy continues to chug along nicely, currently forecasted to grow at 2.5% in Q2. And even despite conusmers' stated concerns, retail sales remain resilient and even surprised to the upside last month.Are those worried about a consumer-driven slowdown, or perhaps even recession, too pessimistic?Or, is there greater danger lying beneath the surface data than most are aware of.To find out, we have the good fortune...

International investor Louis Gave returns to share where he sees risk & opportunity in the markets right now.

As for risk: he sees a LOT of it.The market is drunk on speculation.

And when the party ends, there's going to be one hell of a hangover as the painful correction from today's overvaluation sets in.

As for opportunities, to learn what they are, watch this video.

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#aistocks #internationalstocks #marketcorrection...

Markets are super-saturated in speculation.

An important sign of this is that margin debt is at all time highs, and being used to purchase leveraged derivatives.

"This will end in tears" warns portfolio manager Lance Roberts.

We discuss the why & when of it, as well as the latest capital rotation underway, new risks to the AI bubble, oil prices and future inflation, Bitcoin's troubles, and of course Lance's firm's latest trades.

For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Market Recap.

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Kevin Muir, publisher of the popular 'The Macro Tourist' newsletter, sees far too many investors underestimating market risk today.Everywhere he looks the market is expensive.But Wall Street can't get enough.Kevin shares why he strongly advises "now is a time for defense" in portfolios, and which assets he prefers most right now.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#aistocks #marketcorrection #marketrisk _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual...

TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ANDY'S JUNK SILVER OFFER go to https://thoughtfulmoney.com/buygoldThe precious metals are still struggling to find secure footing in the wake of their sell-off from record highs earlier this year.How low will gold & silver prices go before they do?To discuss, we're fortunate to have precious metals expert Andy Schectman return to the program in this livestream. He'll field audience Q&A, as well.#goldprice #silverprice #preciousmetals _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is...

AI-driven speculation in the stock market went into overdrive last week with the launch of the SpaceX IPO.And that may be very dangerous, warns Quoth The Raven's Chris Irons.In fact, he thinks it may have the definitive "jump the shark" moment for the AI bubble.To understand why and how severe the fallout could be, watch this video.

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REGISTER FOR RICK'S UPCOMING SYMPOSIUM at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/rulesymposiumA number of commodities & commodity producers are trading at extreme bargains right now assesses natural resource investor Rick Rule.Not only for the long-term value of the ore in the ground.But also for the dramatic efficiencies AI is bringing in getting the ore out of the ground much more cheaply.For a detailed breakdown of the specific minerals and miners that have Rick's attention most right now, watch this video.#commodities #copper #uranium _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the...

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comThe peace deal announcement rescued markets last week, but Tech (especially semis) still remains very overbought here.So much so that portfolio manager Lance Roberts cautions the risks for the next few weeks are to the downside, should the white-hot Tech trade experience a pullback.We discuss the odds of that, as well as liquidity, the future of a Kevin Warsh Fed, what the bond market is telling us right now, the trouble with sentiment indicators, and Lance's firm's latest...

Yesterday, Kevin Warsh made his inaugural debut as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve.Along with revealing that the FOMC is keeping the policy rate unchanged for now, he announced a number of changes at the Fed now that he's "the new sheriff in town".How did the markets react?Fed-watcher Axel Merk returns to the program to share his initial reaction, as well as take live use Q&A#kevinwarsh #federareserve #inflationhedge _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this co...

WANT TO INVEST IN COMMODITIES? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comIt has been three months after the outbreak of the US/Iran war, and the world is still dealing with the ongoing effects of an oil price shock.Not only is that having an inflationary impact on the prices of many goods & services, but it's also raising increasing concerns of the availability of oil supplies.Could the world soon start experiencing an inventory shortage of oil -- the essential fuel that enables global commerce?Or will the recently announced...

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comThe trend change away from globalization towards nationalism and mercantilism continues around the world.For the man who predicted this over a decade in advance, what does he see ahead for both geopolitics and the global economy?We're very fortunate to sit down again today with Michael Every, global strategist at Rabobank.#peacedeal #iranwar #geopolitics _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this co...

SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW TED & THE OXBOW TEAM at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com/oxbowVeteran high net worth money manager Ted Oakley warns that we're currently in a "lemming market".Investors, whipped up by a complicit Wall Street, are stampeding in a herd after bigger and bigger speculative gains.At some point, he says from the experience of past cycles, they follow each other off a cliff and suffer losses that often set them back years.So how is Ted and his team at Oxbow managing client funds in this market environment?To find out, watch this video.#spacex...

Markets are a chaotic mess right now.Volatility has returned as numerous headwinds & tailwinds compete to pull stocks in opposite directions.What should investors do in such an environment?Michael and I discuss his current outlook, plus the SpaceX IPO, Bitcoin, quantum computing, bond yields, inflation, oil prices and Michael's firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this week's Market Recap.

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WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comWelcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm its founder & your host, Adam TaggartToday's guest has been warning for a good while now that the current bull market is stocks is in its final innings.In fact, he think the AI boom may be -- right now -- in the process of metastacizing into the AI bust.It's not all gloom for investors, though. He's quite bullish on commodities -- and the stocks of the companies that produce them -- which he sees...

SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comWall Street couldn't be in love more with all things AI.But what it's missing is that the buildout for AI requires a lot more commodities. A TREMENDOUS amount more.Right now Wall Street is underpricing the coming boom in hard assets. Once it realizes its error, commodities will enter a super boom predicts Tavi Costa.#commodities #ai #copper _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this co...

The day of panic the stock market experienced last Friday is just a taste of what's to come, predicts financial advisor Jonathan Wellum.With so many asset prices stretched to historic extremes and so many macro risk factors currently circulating, heightened volatility is going to be the theme of the back half of 2026 says Jonathan."It's going to be a wild ride" from here, he warns.For all the specifics why, watch this video.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#volatility #marketcorrection #commodities...

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comLawrence Lepard warns that "The Big Print" he wrote about in his book is fast approaching.This will be another surge of $trillions in monetary and fiscal stimulus that will surge inflation and accelerate the devaluation of the dollar.He expects hard assets and commodities -- especially gold, silver and Bitcoin -- to rocket higher in price.And his counsel to investors is to increase exposure to these assets while there's still time.To hear Larry's full Big Print prediction...

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comStocks finally had a down week, breaking a 9-in-row streak of up weeks.And in particular, the markets broke down hard on Friday. The S&P was down over -2.5% and the NASDAQ down nearly -5%.Regular watchers know that portfolio manager Lance Roberts has been warning for weeks that a pullback was likely.Now that it appears to be here, how low could things go?He and I discuss that, as well as the SpaceX and other new IPOs...

With the rabid fervor with which any stock even vaguely related to A.I. is being bid up right now, the advisors at New Habor warn we may now have a twin bubble in both equity valuations AND corporate earnings.Which leads them to wonder: Is this the blow-off top?If so, how bad will the ensuing correction be?I discuss that with them in today's video, as well as how they are helping clients prepare prudently for positioning their portfolios to survive whatever may be headed our way.

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Approximately one-third (about 30%–34%) of the world's seaborne fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz.With the Strait closed for so long now, there is growing concern there will be insufficient fertilizer for the Northern Hemisphere harvest this year (which contains 87% of the world's population)Is another Arab Spring -- this time, worldwide -- likely as a result?To find out, we talk with Bruce Sherrick, Professor at the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at Univ of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.

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Chris Irons, publisher of the highly popular QTR Fringe Finance substack, returns today to explain how our financial markets are now little more than a "digital casino on cocaine".Speculations runs rampant. Everywhere.And those who see that clearly have a difficult time successfully positioning against it, because the House (our central planners) keep intervening to improve the odds in its favor.It increasingly feels to him that the smartest move is not to play.At least, not by the market's rules.For a very un-traditional discussion, watch this video.GET AN ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION TO CHRIS' SUBSTACK FOR 80% OFF...

Brent Johnson, developer of the Dollar Milkshake Theory, squares off against Craig Tindale to debate whether America, China, and the rest of the world are teetering into collapse as the current global system breaks down.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#geopolitics #commodities #dollar _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be co...

Stocks are about to complete their 9th consecutive up week in a row.That's REALLY rare, folks.That alone suggests this market rally is long in the tooth.But given the current vertical price action in the semiconductor sector, odds are even higher that a material pullback will happen soon.So be very careful if you're chasing this rally warns portfolio manager Lance Roberts.Lance and I discuss the rising pullback odds, as well as risks to the AI Trdes, tightening oil inventories, the potential unintended consequences of the new "Trump accounts", and Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything...

Despite stocks being at rich valuations, there's a risk of them bubbling sharply higher from here should the Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh chose to "look past" the current inflation concerns.This would be akin to what happened in the late 1990s.Darius Dale, CEO of macro forecasting and market timing service 42Macro, delivers this warning in today's video, as well as shares how his model is currently positioned for the current investing environment.

WANT HELP? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#federalreserve #inflation #marketbubble _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money...

TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ANDY'S JUNK SILVER OFFER go to https://thoughtfulmoney.com/buygoldThe precious metals are still struggling to find secure footing in the wake of their sell-off from record highs earlier this year.How low will gold & silver prices go before they do?To discuss, we're fortunate to have precious metals expert Andy Schectman return to the program in this livestream. He'll field audience Q&A, as well.#goldprice #silverprice #preciousmetals _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is...

WANT RETIREMENT PLANNING HELP? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comWe're trying something new I've been wanting to do for a while: inject more videos focusing on the best practices of wealth buildingToday Julia Lembcke, Certified Financial Planner and Managing Director at URS Advisory tells about about how the preferred sequence to use when withdrawing funds from your various forms of retirement accounts.Account withdrawal order is VERY important. And it's one that most people actually get backwards.To learn how to potentially save yourself thousands -- if not hundreds...

Today's guest sees the U.S. financial markets entering the final stage of a multi-decade topping process and the early innings of a 15–20-year regime shift driven by demographics, populism, deglobalization, and rising structural inflation.He believes we are on the cusp of a “lost decade-plus” in nominal equity returns and meaningful real losses if investors keep using  the old 40-year “buy-the-dip, stay long growth” playbook.How can we position ourselves to sidestep the worst of that, and perhaps even prosper in the years ahead?Well, let's ask the man himself.We're very fortunate to welcome back to the program Cem...

Well, the stock market rally continues, with short-term technicals remaining in highly overbought territory.

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts still thinks the near-term risks to the downside far outweigh the upside potential at this point -- warning it may not take much to trigger a sizable pullback at this point.

We discuss the odds of that, as well as the headline concerns about falling global oil inventories and rising bond yields.

How worried should investors be about those?

Watch this week's Market Recap to find out.

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Today's guest entered the year pretty bearish on the prospects for the US economy, the global economy, the financial markets and the housing market.Now that we're 5 months into the year -- and embroiled in a new war against Iran -- how has his outlook changed, if at all?For insight, we're fortunate to welcome back to the program Edward Dowd, founder of macroeconomic consulting & research firm Phinance Technologies.Ed expects a near-term 20-30% market correction, to then get rescued by the central planners.But...he then predicts that recovery will fail, dropping stocks into a true, likely multi-year...

Macro & market analyst Stephanie Pomboy returned to provide her monthly outlook in today's livestream.

She remains concerned that rising bond yields will be the kryptonite that brings the economy to its knees -- sending the prices of stocks, bonds and real estate downwards.

Will Kevin Warsh be able to help us avoid this fate?Find out by clicking here or on the video below.

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Is the US economy now solidly on the path to a new Golden Age as the Administration tells us?Or have President Trump's aggressive tariffs & international military interventions set America's prospects back as a number of critics claim?I can think of few better people to hear from on this topic than today's guest, who remains one of the key economic advisors to President Trump and his cabinet membersToday, we're fortunate to welcome back to the program economist Dr Arthur Laffer. He was the first to hold the title of Chief Economist at the Office of Management and Budget...

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comMike Green has become famous for his work empirically proving that net positive passive capital flows have predominantly been responsible for the strong performance of stocks since the GFC.He has also warned that should those flows weaken, or even turn negative, stock prices will start moving in reverse.And he's starting to see early signs that they may indeed be starting to falter?When will that matter?And what will that really mean for markets?To find out, watch...

The stock market rally is looking increasingly vulnerable as breath narrows, volume declines, and reading remain at short-term overbought extremes.And now, bond yields are surging.Is the weakness we saw on Friday the start of the pullback many have been expecting?Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the odds, as well as the latest retail sales data, the latest on passive capital flows, and Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.

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