Predicting Sports with Michael Fiddle

Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) breaks down Friday's NBA Cup slate. He dives into market movement, sharp betting angles, and best bets through the lens of advanced gambling strategies.

(0:00) Intro
(16:43) NBA Cup Friday Preview
(20:54) Show Comments
(24:22) Show Throwback: How to Craft +EV Parlays
(26:10) Ian's Prop of the Day

Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool & the Gang)

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Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) breaks down all ten games on Wednesday’s NBA slate, analyzing market movement, identifying sharp betting angles, and sharing his best bets through the lens of advanced sports betting strategies. He also dives into some NFL Futures in reaction to the trades that went through at the deadline.

(0:00) Intro
(0:52) Help Wanted
(6:15) NBA Wednesday Preview
(26:04) NFL Futures Post Trade Deadline
(36:42) Ian's Prop of the Day

Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool & the Gang)

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Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) previews Week 10 in the NFL and breaks down his best bets for Monday’s NBA action. He dives into market movement, sharp betting angles, and best bets through the lens of advanced gambling strategies.

(0:00) Intro
(5:44) NFL Week 10 Early Bets
(22:56) NBA Monday Best Bets

Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool & the Gang)

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Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) breaks down the late market buy points and actionable +EV Props for NFL Week 9. He dives into market movement, sharp betting angles, and best bets through the lens of advanced gambling strategies.

(0:00) Intro
(7:32) NFL Week 9 Late Market Moves
(18:01) NFL Card Review
(25:10) NFL +EV Props with BetStamp Pro

Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool & the Gang)

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Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) breaks down all nine games on Friday’s NBA slate, analyzing market movement, identifying sharp betting angles, and sharing his best bets through the lens of advanced sports betting strategies.

(0:00) Intro
(8:11) 9-Game NBA Cup Friday Preview
(27:16) Most Actionable Spots Summary
(28:11) Show Comments

Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool & the Gang)

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Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) is joined by Raheem Palmer (@iamrahstradamus) as they break down the best bets for Wednesday’s NBA action. They dive into market movement, sharp betting angles, and best bets through the lens of advanced gambling strategies.

(0:00) Intro
(5:54) NBA Wednesday Slate Preview
(50:55) Actionable Spots Summary
(51:46) Quick Aside on Secondary Metrics

Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool & the Gang)

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Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) previews the NFL Week 9 slate and breaks down his best bets for Monday’s NBA action. He'll also take us through live trading on Novig, introduce our new partnership with @Juice_Reel, and review October’s betting results.

(0:00) Intro
(3:03) Early NFL Week 9 Preview
(15:01) NBA Monday Best Bets
(26:41) Show Comments
(29:50) Juice Reel Partnership
(36:43) October Betting Stats Review

Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool & the Gang)

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Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) breaks down the latest NFL line moves and scans for +EV player props, going book by book to identify potential value. He also dives deep into market movement and shares his best bets for the NBA slate and the WNBA Finals Game 7 on Saturday.

(0:00) Intro
(1:59) WNBA Finals Game 7 Bets
(6:57) NBA Saturday Preview
(9:38) NFL Late Market Moves
(14:25) +EV Props with BetStamp Pro

Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool & the Gang)

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Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) breaks down Friday's NBA Cup slate and gives out some Futures bets. He dives into market movement, sharp betting angles, and best bets through the lens of advanced gambling strategies.

(0:00) Intro
(2:41) That Time I Bet -6000 Odds
(7:50) NBA Cup Futures
(13:08) NBA Cup Friday Preview
(35:13) Ian's Prop of the Day
(36:09) Show Comments
(42:04) WHOP Bets Summary

Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool & the Gang)

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Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) welcomes a first-time guest on the show, JFar (@JFar2Nice). They break down the best bets for Wednesday’s NBA action. They dive into market movement, sharp betting angles, and best bets through the lens of advanced gambling strategies.

(0:00) Intro
(1:17) Elevator Pitch to the Approach to NBA Betting
(10:28) New Rule on Parlaying Player Prop Unders
(25:05) NBA Wednesday Best Bets

Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool & the Gang)

Follow @JFar2Nice on X/Twitter to check out his work.

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Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) previews the NFL Week 8 slate and breaks down his best bets for Monday’s NBA action. He dives into market movement, sharp betting angles, and best bets through the lens of advanced gambling strategies.

(0:00) Intro and Show Announcements
(5:16) An NBA Future and Monday Best Bets
(16:25) Early NFL Week 8 Market Moves
(24:12) Ian's Prop of the Day

Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool & the Gang)

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Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) breaks down the latest NFL line moves and scans for +EV NFL player props, going book by book to identify potential value. He also dives deep into market movement and shares his best bets for the NBA slate on Saturday.

(0:00) Intro
(3:25) Why I Don't Hedge Bets Live
(15:16) NFL Week 7 Actionable Angles
(29:32) NFL +EV Props with BetStamp

Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool & the Gang)

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Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) breaks down the NBA slate for Thursday and checks in on more buy points for NFL Week 7. He dives into market movement, sharp betting angles, and best bets through the lens of advanced gambling strategies.

(0:00) Intro
(6:15) NBA Thursday Best Bets
(12:50) NFL Most Actionable Spots
(18:17) Ian's Prop of the Day

Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool & the Gang)

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Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) is joined by professional Poker player Drew Johnson (@RantingJohnson) to go through the 11-game Wednesday slate in the NBA. They dive into market movement, sharp betting angles, and best bets through the lens of advanced gambling strategies.

(0:00) Intro
(3:33) Opening Night Thoughts
(17:00) Wednesday Slate Preview and Best Bets
(30:10) Awards Predictions

Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool & the Gang)

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Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) takes an early look at the NFL Week 7 slate and highlights some edges in the market and the most actionable bets live on the show. He dives into market movement, sharp betting angles, and best bets through the lens of advanced gambling strategies.

(0:00) Intro and Show Announcements
(4:43) Early NFL Week 7 Preview
(19:12) NBA Opening Night Lines

Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool & the Gang)

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Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) breaks down the recent changes in NBA betting, explaining why they’re happening, how they’ll work, where the market is overreacting, and which edges are genuinely gone. Then, Mike and AV dive deep into some bold NBA Takes, both positive and negative.

(0:00) Intro
(1:52) NBA Betting Changes
(14:03) Don't Blame Me For Thinking This But
(44:03) Let Me Convince You That

Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool & the Gang)

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Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) breaks down Pre-Season NBA Power Ratings and examines how the market is valuing each team early in the season.

He also looks into more midweek buy points for NFL Week 6, identifying sharp sides and pricing discrepancies that may still offer value.

Using advanced sports betting strategies, price sensitivity, and market analysis, we’re looking for spots where our perceived edge gives us a chance to beat the closing line.

(0:00) Intro
(3:17) NBA Power Ratings
(21:24) NFL Week 6 Check-In
(31:39) WNBA Finals Bets

Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Ar...

Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) is joined by Professional Poker Player Drew Johnson (@RantingJohnson), and they break down the NBA Win Totals that are worth betting right now, identifying positions they believe have room to move before the market fully adjusts.

Through advanced sports betting strategies, market analysis, and our perceived edge, we’re looking for opportunities to beat the market while the numbers are still worth actioning.

(0:00) Intro
(7:19) MEM Grizzlies
(13:22) ATL Hawks
(17:54) UTA Jazz
(20:45) OKC Thunder
(25:57) WAS Wizards
(32:33) LA Lakers
(38:53) BKN Nets + MIL Bucks
(43:12) CHA Hornets
(46:53) 100:1 NBA Fu...

Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) takes an early look at the NFL Week 6 slate and highlights some edges in the market and the most actionable bets live on the show. He dives into market movement, sharp betting angles, and best bets through the lens of advanced gambling strategies.

(0:00) Intro
(9:42) NFL Week 6 Preview and Actionable Bets
(20:53) +EV Props with BetStamp Pro

Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool & the Gang)

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Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) scans the market for +EV NFL player props, going book by book to identify potential value. He takes a deep dive into NFL and WNBA Finals prices, market movement, sharp betting angles, and best bets through the lens of advanced gambling strategies.

(0:00) Intro
(1:38) Late Market Best Bet
(5:13) +EV NFL Player Props
(14:51) WNBA Finals Insights
(16:28) Natalie Nakase Bold Prediction

Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool & the Gang)

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Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) discusses the latest market movement for NFL Week 5, checks in on the most recent WNBA Playoff action, and shares his insights on the most actionable edges. Mike dives into market movement, sharp betting angles, and best bets through the lens of advanced gambling strategies.

(0:00) Intro
(1:12) Reflection on CLV Discussion
(3:36) NBA Twitter Shenanigans
(6:56) Thursday Night Football Best Bet
(12:46) Other NFL Week 5 Buy Points
(18:38) +EV TNF Player Props

Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool & the Gang)

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Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) takes an early look at the NFL Week 5 slate and highlights some of the edges in the market and the most actionable bets live on the show. He also checks in on the WNBA playoffs and shares his best plays. He dives into market movement, sharp betting angles, and best bets through the lens of advanced gambling strategies.

(0:00) Intro
(1:04) Strategy Question
(14:41) NFL Most Actionable Bets
(35:29) WNBA Playoffs Check-In
(44:55) WHOP Bets Summary

Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool & the Gang)

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Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) breaks down the latest NFL line moves and highlights the ones that could be worth actioning before kickoff. He also scans for +EV NFL player props, going book by book to identify potential value. Tune in for a deep dive across the NFL and WNBA slates into market movement, sharp betting angles, and best bets through the lens of advanced gambling strategies.

(0:00) Intro
(1:34) NFL Week 4 Late Market Moves
(18:28) +EV Props with BetStamp Pro
(37:23) WNBA Playoffs Best Bet

Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool & the Gang)

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Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) discusses Fanatics refunding Trevor Lawrence touchdown prop bets and then reviews his September betting results, breaking down how the month went. He also takes another early look at the NFL Week 4 slate and checks in on the WNBA playoffs as the postseason continues.

(0:00) Intro
(4:17) Fanatics Refunds Trevor Lawrence ATD
(19:38) September Stats Recap
(33:05) NFL Week 4 Check-In
(35:35) WNBA Playoff Review

Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool & the Gang)

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Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) talks through the show's name change and takes an early look at the NFL Week 4 slate and highlights some of the edges and most actionable angles catching his attention. Mike also checks in on the WNBA playoffs and shares his best bets. He dives into market movement, sharp betting angles, and best bets through the lens of advanced gambling strategies.

(0:00) Intro
(1:32) Show Name Change
(17:01) NFL Week 4 Review
(37:20) WNBA Playoff Check-In

Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool & the Gang)

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Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) looks ahead to Week 3 of the NFL slate and reviews the WNBA and NFL games for Monday night. He dives into market movement, sharp betting angles, and best bets through the lens of advanced gambling strategies.

(0:00) Intro
(2:08) ATL Dream @ NY Liberty
(15:02) MIN Lynx @ IND Fever
(16:14) NY Giants @ LA Rams
(20:16) +EV Props with BetStamp Pro
(27:06) NFL Week 3 Scan Through
(32:23) Bets Summary
(37:37) Show Announcements

Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool and The Gang)

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Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) celebrates some good news as the show reaches a major milestone in the podcasting world. He also breaks down closing line queries and takes a closer look at prediction market liquidity. Finally, Mike tackles a strategy question that sounds simple but could also be a life-changing perspective.

(0:00) Intro
(1:03) Cracked the Top 70 Podcasts Worldwide
(7:03) Betting with Fiddle Podcast Origins
(12:25) Show Name Change
(20:21) Prediction Market Liquidity
(37:49) Closing Lines on PMs
(43:19) A Bet To Risk Your NET Worth On?

Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool and The...

Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) announces the new partnership with Novig! He also looks at Chiefs vs. Broncos MNF and lines for Week 2 of the NFL slate. He dives into market movement, sharp betting angles, and best bets through the lens of advanced gambling strategies.

(0:00) Intro
(3:42) DEN @ KC
(10:14) DET @ BUF
(12:15) GB @ NYJ
(16:57) PHI @ TEN
(17:51) NO @ BAL
(18:19) LVR @ LAC
(18:35) JAX @ DEN
(20:35) SEA @ ARI
(23:22) MIA @ SF
(25:06) IND @ KC
(25:31) NYG @ LAR
(28:43) +EV Props with BetStamp Pro
(30:02) WHOP Bets Summary

Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool...

Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) gives his thoughts about betting splits, and breaks down the latest market moves across the NFL Week 1 slate. He dives into market movement, sharp betting angles, and best bets through the lens of advanced gambling strategies. Lastly, he makes some BOLD NFL predictions that aren't necessarily betting related.

(0:00) Intro
(7:18) Betting Splits
(23:16) BUF Bills @ HOU Texans
(26:10) WAS Commanders @ PHI Eagles
(30:22) NFL +EV Player Props
(34:01) NFL Bold Predictions
(44:36) WHOP Bets Summary

Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool and The Gang)

NFL Survivor Contest Signup...

Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) takes a look at a few unhinged commercials from the prediction and sports betting space that caught his attention. He also tackles an interesting question about betting in a state without legal sportsbooks. Finally, Mike checks in on Rams vs. 49ers for Thursday.

(0:00) Intro
(4:22) Prediction Market Commercials
(29:27) Strategy Question
(1:06:52) Rams/49ers Check In
(1:14:50) WHOP Bets Summary

Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool and The Gang)

NFL Survivor Contest Signup Link: https://contests.app.splashsports.com/contest/contest_01M145KA4Z7VTX0QDW00RJDM6M<...

Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) breaks down the latest NFL betting market and revisits the Week 1 lines and player props worth actioning. He also discusses LeBron James joining Polymarket and what his involvement could mean for the growing prediction market space.

(0:00) Intro
(1:39) LeBron James-Polymarket Partnership
(18:01) NFL Main Markets
(30:04) FanDuel (+EV NFL Player Props)
(31:37) DraftKings
(34:02) BetMGM
(34:34) Bet365
(38:14) BetRivers
(41:15) Caesars
(44:12) WHOP Bets Summary

Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool and The Gang)

NFL Survivor Contest Signup Link: https://contests.app.splashsports.com/contest/contest_01M145KA4...

How did we do in August? Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) breaks down August’s betting results, reviews the secondary metrics, and forecasts what the numbers tell us heading into September. We’ll also look at what worked, what didn’t, and where we can find even more betting value going forward.

(0:00) Intro
(6:24) Primary & Secondary Metrics
(7:56) ROI vs xROI
(12:54) Why CLV rate was slightly down from my norm

Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool and The Gang)

NFL Survivor Contest Signup Link: https://contests.app.splashsports.com/contest/contest_01M145KA4Z7V...

How much can a great power rank system really tell you about a betting market? We sit down with The PowerRank founder Ed Feng to dive into one of the most powerful tools in sports betting and uncover how sharp bettors can use ratings to gain an edge.

We’ll explore what separates a truly useful power rating from the rest and where even the best ratings can go wrong. If you want to understand how some of the sharpest handicappers see the market, this is an interview you won’t want to miss.

(0:00) Intro

Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) breaks down the early NFL Week 1 slate. He looks at the biggest matchups, early lines, and sharp betting angles worth actioning before the market moves.

(0:00) Intro
(0:44) NFL Related Announcements
(6:25) NE Patriots @ SEA Seahawks
(8:39) SF 49ers @ LA Rams
(10:43) BUF Bills @ HOU Texans
(14:29) CHI Bears @ CAR Panthers
(14:38) ATL Falcons @ PIT Steelers
(15:56) NY Jets @ TEN Titans
(18:35) NO Saints @ DET Lions
(23:49) DEN Broncos @ KC Chiefs
(25:53) CON Sun @ IND Fever
(26:27) WHOP Bets Summary

Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool and The Gang)

...

Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) is joined by professional poker player Drew Johnson (@RantingJohnson) to talk about some way-too-early NBA Futures for the upcoming season. They break down the team win totals and player props they believe are worth getting in on now before the market moves.

(0:00) Intro
(12:21) Honorable Mentions
(23:49) 6th Man of the Year
(29:17) Assists Leader
(32:59) UTA Jazz Win Total
(37:06) DAL Mavericks Win Total
(42:27) CHA Hornets Win Total
(47:53) 6th Man of the Year
(55:05) Other Honorable Mentions

Countdown Song: "Rich Girl" (Artist: Hall and Oates)

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Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) dives into the latest MLB betting results in the WHOP. We’ll review the stats and see what the market is telling us about the season so far.

Then, Mike breaks down his favorite WNBA bets and the spots he’s looking to attack on today’s slate. Get the best prices and market insights you need before placing your action.

(0:00) Intro
(11:14) MLB Betting Stats
(23:32) GS Valkyries @ MIN Lynx
(25:23) ATL Dream @ LA Sparks
(27:13) CHI Sky @ CON Sun
(28:19) POR Fire @ DAL Wings
(29:12) WAS Mystics @ PHX Mercury
(31:36) WHOP B...

Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) ranks every WNBA head coach based on their performance so far this season. He looks at which coaches are getting the most out of their teams and which ones may be holding their teams back.

Mike also breaks down his best bets, highlighting the spots he believes offer the most value. As always, he brings a betting-focused look at the games with actionable angles for tonight.

(0:00) Intro
(2:52) Superstar Tier
(9:58) A Tier
(15:15) B Tier
(21:59) C Tier
(32:42) F Tier
(42:25) WHOP Bets Summary

Countdown Song: "Rich Girl"...

Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) breaks down the WNBA slates for Wednesday and Thursday. He dives into market movement, sharp betting angles, and best bets through the lens of advanced gambling strategies.

(0:00) Intro
(3:07) TOR Tempo @ WAS Mystics
(8:08) MIN Lynx @ GS Valkyries
(13:05) IND Fever @ DAL Wings
(15:19) ATL Dream @ LA Sparks
(16:28) Board Review
(18:26) +EV Props with BetStamp Pro
(26:32) WHOP Bets Summary

Countdown Song: "Rich Girl" (Artist: Hall and Oates)

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Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) keeps the conversation going on closing line value (CLV) and why it matters when you're betting. He breaks down how CLV can help show whether you're making good bets over time.

Mike also looks ahead to the NFL season and talks about some season-long player props he likes. He shares his thoughts on where he sees value before the season gets started.

(0:00) Intro
(3:25) Sports Betting QnA
(28:58) NFL Season-Long Player Props

Countdown Song: "Rich Girl" (Artist: Hall and Oates)

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Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) revisits some macro topics in the betting space, including whether or not closing line value (CLV) actually works and what it means for long-term betting success.

He also shares a story about some trolls, highlighting some of the more entertaining and unexpected moments that come with being in the sports betting space and what he's learned from the experience.

Mike also mentions a Survivor contest within the WHOP, with subscribers competing against each other. That among other changes that are coming as early as next week on the show.

(0:00) Intro<...