The Contrarians with Adam and Adir

Adam and Adir unpack the strange economics of AI, with OpenAI burning billions, Anthropic claiming explosive growth, and investors still trying to work out where the real profits will come from. They also dig into Temple & Webster’s brutal share price collapse, the limits of its retail model, and why even strong operators can struggle inside a brutally hard business.

00:00 - OpenAI, Anthropic and The AI Money Problem
14:39 - Temple & Webster Gets Whacked 

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Adam and Adir are joined by negotiation expert Vicki Medvec to discuss how to negotiate better deals, use anchoring, understand BATNA, manage emotion, create multiple offers, avoid losing value at the finish line and solve the other side’s problem. Vicki also explains bucket issues, storytelling issues, negotiation power, cross-cultural differences and why the best negotiators focus less on themselves and more on what the other side really needs.

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Buy Vicki's Book: https://www.amazon.com.au/Negotiate-without-Fear-Strategies-Maximize/dp/1119719097

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Adam and Adir cover a messy week of airports, taxis, AI tools and data privacy before turning to Sydney's Pullman Five and the erosion of the presumption of innocence in public life. They also unpack Culture Amp’s AI data changes, Spirit Airlines’ email archive being sold for training data, Guzman y Gomez’s impressive result, and Adir’s long, painful, surprisingly successful launch of his new luggage brand Tanssu.

00:00 - Wispr, RSI and The Curse in Disguise
07:12 - Telstra’s Futurama Phone Box Fail
10:13 - Mobile Phones, Parenting and Always Being Contactable
12:35 - Uber, Taxi...

Adam and Adir unpack the growing pressure in Australia’s housing market, with falling prices, sticky inflation and the fallout from the federal budget creating a messy economic picture. They also dig into NVIDIA’s latest AI infrastructure financing play, why CUDA may not be as untouchable as it once looked, and whether the AI boom is starting to look more fragile. Plus, Canva’s valuation gets marked down, SaaS multiples come back to earth, and Blackbird raises another billion dollars.

00:00 - Australia's Housing Crash
10:21 - NVIDIA
24:45 - Canva's Valuation Markdown

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Adam and Adir unpack San Francisco’s AI-fuelled tech boom, from Waymo and Zoox to Figma’s aggressive push and Lovable’s wild valuation. Later, Adir explains what DEF CON reveals about modern cybersecurity, before John Stensholt joins to discuss Tech Bros, Atlassian’s founder breakup and the strange billionaire world of Mike Cannon-Brookes and Scott Farquhar.

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John Stensholt's book 'Tech Bros' is available now: https://harpercollins.com.au/products/9781460769492

00:00 - San Francisco, Waymo and Zoox
08:00 - Figma, AI and the API...

Hear Blackbird's Rick Baker, Airtree's Craig Blair and Jelix's Ian Gardiner discuss the AI Bubble, CGT Founder Chaos and Australia's Startup Future

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Adam and Adir discuss Zoox, Waymo, autonomous cars, Xero’s strange Vegas advertising, Sukhinder Singh Cassidy, Victoria’s work-from-home laws, Delta One, airline lounges, Jetstar’s carry-on bag crackdown, Ryanair, Canva’s slowing growth, AI design tools, Claude, OpenAI, Figma, Atlassian’s profit pivot and the future of Australia’s biggest tech companies.

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Adam and Adir discuss Canva’s slowing growth, its $60 billion valuation, Figma, Meta, AI design tools, OpenAI, Anthropic, the pressure on Australia’s biggest private tech company, eBay’s corporate terrorism scandal, the Steiners, Devin Wenig, CEO accountability, the $55 million settlement and why corporate consequences rarely reach the top.

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Adam and Adir discuss Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan, Victoria’s work-from-home laws, credit card fees, AI chatbots, bad customer experience, the “logo CEO” problem, Qantas, Alan Joyce, self-managed super property changes, Gen Z drinking habits, OSW and the battery boom, Anthony Fauci, COVID lockdowns, Leopold Aschenbrenner’s AI fund blow-up, Anthropic, Nvidia and the AI bubble.

01:07 - Victoria's Leadership Change
06:52 - Credit Cards
13:20 - AI Customer Service
18:26 - Logo Changes and Rebrands
27:08 - Alan Joyce
41:08. - Property Rules
51:59 - OSW
1:03:22 - Fauci, COVID and the Pandemic Reckoning
1:16:30 - Leo Lats...

Adam and Adir discuss Tesla’s profit collapse, Elon Musk’s valuation premium, robotaxis, self-driving, BYD, SpaceX, Starlink, Richard White, Immutable, blockchain gaming, NFTs, crypto tokens, Australia’s unicorn bubble and the $3.5 billion valuation that never made sense.

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Adam and Adir discuss the Labor Party conference, Ed Husic, Jacinta Allan’s political problems, Victoria’s unemployment rate, a 1998 celebrity earnings quiz, Etched and the AI chip race, Nvidia, OpenAI, KPMG’s Lendlease audit scandal, Waymo vs Uber, Revolut, bank fees, Jim Chalmers’ housing policy and Australia’s property risk.

Watch the video Adam mentions: https://www.instagram.com/reels/DbNXhESCeXM/ 

2:06 - Ed Husic and the Gaza Debate
8:46 - Jacinta Allen and Victorian Labor
13:45 - Work From Home Laws
19:19 - Highest Earning Celebrities of 1998
35:33 - Nvidia's Margin Problem
57:11 - KPMG
1:0...

Adam and Adir discuss luxury hotel inflation, Instagram status games, SpaceX’s valuation drop, Starlink’s powers, Tesla vs BYD, Australia’s best-selling cars, Atlassian’s Loom problem, Mike Cannon-Brookes and Adam’s safari life.

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Adam and Adir discuss safari business lessons, England vs Argentina, Murderbot Diaries and $0.99 Kindle funnels, Uber One, Lux Plus, Marxism, social democracy, Xero’s CEO share sale, SEN circling ARN, Jackie O, 4DMedical, Pro Medicus comparisons and meme stock valuations.

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00:00 - Adam’s Safari Experience
11:08 - England vs Argentina and Why Playing Defence Kills Winners
15:35 - 99c Kindle Funnel
22:14 - Uber One vs Lux Plus
31:20 - Collective Noun Quiz
36:17 - Marxism & Capitalism
55:10 - Xero’s CEO Share...

Adam & Adir examine Bending Spoon's extraordinary rise, its blockbuster IPO, comparisons with Berkshire Hathaway and Constellation Software, the risks created by its aggressive use of leverage, and whether Bending Spoons is an ingenious software conglomerate or an enormously overvalued house of cards.

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Adam and Adir discuss EasyJet and the economics of discount airlines, Telstra’s outage, Twinkies, protein mania, gambling, Norway’s sporting machine, work from home obesity, Nvidia and Fermi’s AI bubble, Bitcoin, TEG, Ticketek and Live Nation.

Watch the Luton Airport Prank Video: 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ya_LluCl16k

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Happy Saturday! We’re answering another batch of your questions this week.

This week you asked:

🧠 How should someone with a strong career but average academic results explain ADHD and employability concerns to a potential employer?

🤝 Should Australia adopt broader employee ownership models to help workers build wealth and support retiring SME owners?

🇦🇺 What is Australia’s greatest invention in terms of global impact or global good?

Have something you want Adam and Adir to answer next? Drop it in the comments!

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Adam and Adir discuss London’s heat wave, Victoria’s crime wave, Labor’s housing mess, the world’s most profitable companies, Nvidia and the AI bubble, remote work, Canva vs Figma, Koala, SkinKandy, The Man Shake and the latest Corporate Travel disaster.

00:00 - London's Heat Wave
06:00 - Victoria's Crime Wave and the Housing Debate
14:00 - The 30 Most Profitable Companies
23:00 - The AI Bubble, Nvidia and the $7 Trillion Question
44:00 - CGT, Capitalism and Labor's Budget Backlash
54:00 - Remote Work, Gen Z and Canva's Office Crackdown
1:05:01 - Koala, SkinKandy and the ASX IPO Prob...

Happy Saturday! We’re back with another round of listener questions.

This week you asked:

🗳️ Is Australia’s ageing population creating a scenario of democratic failure?

🏛️ What does the latest Victorian Liberal Party turmoil say about the party’s internal culture and ability to govern?

✡️ Do Adam and Adir consider themselves practising Jews, culturally Jewish, or somewhere in between?

Got a question you’d love the guys to tackle next? Drop it in the comments!

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Adam and Adir break down whether Canva has missed its golden window to sell, why Karl’s split with Nine might be a brilliant media move, and how the government’s startup tax carve-outs could smash founders and employees.

Plus, Will joins for a quick behind-the-scenes update on The Contrarians as a standalone media business.

00:00 - Update from Will
18:00 - Choosing a Chair for a Business
35:00 - World Cup Lessons
41:00 - Karl Stefanovic
1:02:00 - Claude Design
1:23:00 - More CGT Discussion

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Scott Middleton from Terem Capital joins Adam and Adir to break down Accent Group’s business model, the strength of The Athlete’s Foot, the Hoka opportunity, the Glue Store write-off, the risks in fashion retail, and whether Frasers is trying to buy the company too cheaply.

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The guys discuss KPMG’s spectacular implosion, Labor’s chaotic CGT Reverse Ferret, the ATO’s small business scare campaign, Big W’s surprisingly good AI chatbot, Ferrari’s electric future, and Adore Beauty’s brutal market reality.

00:00 - LinkedIn Thoughts
09:15 - Startup Cities Quiz
15:00 - Big W Chat Bot Experience
27:50 - ATO Small Business Ads
30:00 - Labor's CGT Semi Backdown
44:00 - ASX
51:00 - KPMG
1:08:00 - Ferrari
1:12:00 - Adore Beauty

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Happy Saturday! It’s time for another round of listener Q&A.

This week you asked:

💉 As GLP-1s and peptides become more widespread, which industries could be most affected over the next decade?

🤖 Why are younger people becoming so angry about AI being framed as “the next big thing”?

🛋️ Is modern life now optimised for comfort at the expense of meaning?

Got something you want Adam and Adir to tackle in a future episode? Drop it in the comments!

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00:00 - Catapult Powering the World Cup
04:00 - EOFY Sales
08:45 - Taxis + Uber Decision
18:00 - Sleep Question
23:00 - $1 Trillion vs $1 Billion
27:00 - Robyn Denholm
40:00 - CGT Changes + Impact on Startups
52:45 - VicRoads Fail
54:15 - Xero
1:04:00 - SpaceX
1:17:44.100 - Tim Wilson joins The Contrarians

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Happy Saturday! We’re back with another round of listener Q&A.

This week you asked:

🏨 Why can some aggregators undercut the original seller, while others charge customers a premium?

📈 Has the budget changed the incentives for investors taking risk on growth stocks?

🛒 With Barbeques Galore entering administration, are Aussie consumers pulling back harder than the data suggests?

Have a question you want Adam and Adir to answer next? Drop it in the comments!

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Adam and Adir go deep on SkinKandy, share the latest on the budget, look at the murder of young Brit Henry Nowak and announce which listener has won a $500 Luxury Escapes voucher.

00:00 - The Government's Fuel Solution?
13:00 - Labor's Fall in Victoria
17:42 - More Budget Fallout
40:46 - Police Racism in the UK
53:44 - SkinKandy (Deep Dive)

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Matt Heine, CEO of Netwealth, joins Adam Schwab and Adir Shiffman for a deep dive into one of Australia’s most impressive technology and financial services success stories.

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Adam and Adir sit down with Frank Greef, the man who led the LinkedIn campaign against the government’s disastrous budget—and copped a slap from Albo and the Nine papers for his trouble. Plus, the guys break down the latest from OpenAI and Anthropic, the looming SpaceX float, SexyLand’s unsexy financials, and an update on Corporate Travel Management. Stick around to find out how to enter our new prize draw!

00:00 - Intro & Substack News
3:50 - OpenAI and Greg Brockman
12:54 - Housing Minister Clare O'Neal's Comments
18:35 - Siteminder
19:30 - Curtis Stone
23:30 - Sexy...

SiteMinder has been caught in the ASX tech sell-off, but the hotel software business may be stronger than its share price suggests. Adam, Adir and Scott Middleton from Terem Capital break down the company’s subscription revenue, transaction growth, AI risk, valuation, profitability, and whether the market has overreacted.

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Adam and Adir welcome The Contrarian’s new CEO, discuss the federal budget and get clear on who loves it (and why), catch up on Guzman y Gomez and why leaving the US is the right call, and talk through the EY parental rort and what good parental leave should look like.

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00:00 - Will Hayward joins The Contrarians
21:40 - Brian Cox's Business
30:00 - LE Live
38:00 - Lime Bikes
42:22 - More Budget News
1:14:00 - Guzman y Gomez 
1:28:26 - E...

Happy Saturday! We’re back with another batch of listener questions.

This week you asked:

🌏 With Adam and Adir increasingly frustrated about life in Australia, have they ever seriously considered leaving for somewhere like Singapore or the UAE?

🏠 As a late-30s renter in Sydney with a young family, how should the recent budget shape thinking about the future?

💰 With CGT changes increasing the rate of capital gains tax on Australian residents, why are non-residents still exempt from CGT on certain assets?

Got something you want Adam and Adir to tackle n...

The guys discuss Australia's Federal Budget Horror Show and why young people are the hardest hit, Xero's highly paid CEO fails again as share price slumps, Atlassian rebounds (a little), Temple & Webster downgraded and Lime Bike prepares to IPO

00:00 - Budget Chat
48:39 - Temple & Webster
54:40 - Xero CEO
1:00:02 - Atlassian
1:03:40 - Deep Dive: Lime Bikes

Thanks for listening!

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Happy Saturday! We’re back with another Q&A episode of the show.

This week you asked:

💸 With China rolling out a programmable digital currency, could this become a serious fiscal policy tool in Australia too?

🏷️ What’s the best pathway for selling a small, profitable VC-backed business that’s no longer growing fast enough?

🛒 How much does store layout really affect retail spending?

Got a question you want answered? Drop it in the comments!

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The guys deep dive into the horrific changes to CGT and how it destroys young people’s chance at wealth, negative gearing out for the young and in for Boomers, how SBF became the world’s best investor, are fibre optics going to kill Droneshield, Hamish Douglass’ redemption and world record marathon’s can’t save running shoes.

00:00 - Intro
4:35 - Mother's Day Run
6:00 - Adelaide
8:00 - Victorian State Budget Early Analysis
14.30 - FTX + SBF
23:10 - Sleep Habits
31:00 - Drone Shield & Defence Tech
34:40 - Hamish Douglas x Joe Aston
39:50 - Marathon...

Happy Saturday! We’re back with another Q&A episode of the show.

This week you asked:

🤷‍♂️ My boss is working from home but my team is in the office.

🏠 Do we feel sympathy for young people not feeling financially secure?

💭 Dealing with loss and it’s impact on work and mental wellbeing

We love our listener questions. Drop us anything you want answered for our next one!

Thanks for listening!

Join us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-contrarians-with-adam-and-adir-podcast

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The guys discuss Cochlear's horrific profit downgrade, Firmus IPO hopes up in smoke (for now), self driving to challenge air travel, battery technology goes large and Uber and Expedia get close.

00:00 - Blackbird's Sunrise Start Up Event
13:40 - Firmus
32:50 - Uber x Expedia
42:55 - Public Transport
44:55 - CATL
53:36 - Self Driving vs. Flying
1:02:46 - Experience Economy
1:12:57 - Cochlea Deep Dive

Thanks for listening!

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Happy Saturday! We’re back with another Q&A episode of the show.

This week you asked:

🧱 Are classic trades the most AI proof career path?

🗂️ Taking on more responsibility at work with no extra compensation

🚨 Donald Trump’s recent assassination attempt

Thanks for listening!

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The guys deep dive into Heidi Health, Canva’s Big Dog and Pony Show, is Mecca Australia’s Best Business, Labor tries and fails to curb NDIS largesse, CTM debacle just got a whole lot worse, Temple & Webster changes CEOs and Microsoft’s Co Pilot embarrassment.

Thanks to our sponsor Acquire Intelligence - visit https://acquire.ai/contrarians

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Happy Saturday! We’re back with another Q&A episode of the show.

This week you asked:

👔 Is AI going to remove entry level jobs?

📸 What is the value of a personal brand?

🏠 Property isn’t productive!

Got a question you want answered? Drop it in the comments!

Thanks to our sponsor Acquire Intelligence - visit https://acquire.ai/contrarians

Thanks for listening!

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Steve Baxter joins the pod to discuss his incredible story and why the best investments are the least popular, Anthropic kind of drops Mythos, Adir’s deep dive into encryption, Pope Leo vs Donald Trump, how investible are data centres, are trains dead and has Hermes jumped the shark?

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We want to know more about the people who listen to The Contrarians. Please fill out our survey at the link below and let us know what you think about the sh...

Happy Saturday! We’re back with another Q&A episode of the show.

This week you asked:

👨‍🔬 How much research do you do when investing in a public company?

📢 What justifies a Prime Minister’s public address?

🥺 Leaving friends behind in a workplace

Got a question you want answered? Drop it in the comments!

Thanks to our sponsor Acquire Intelligence - visit https://acquire.ai/contrarians

Thanks for listening!

Join us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-contrarians-with-adam-and-adir-podcast

See omnystudio.com/lis...