The Contrarians with Adam and Adir
Get the fearless truth about start-ups and corporate Australia from guys that give you the hard facts, not the company line. Hear Luxury Escapes co-founder Adam Schwab and Catapult Sports Exec Chairman Adir Shiffman provide the inside word on the biggest stories in business with a contrarian take from the guys who sit on both sides of the table. New episodes dropping weekly.
Myer Kills WFH, has Netflix Jumped the Shark and the economics of Billionaire Matchmaking with Lauren Hunter
Myer is bringing its corporate staff back to the office five days a week, and Adam and Adir think it says something bigger about where the power now sits between employers and employees.
They also ask what Netflix actually is now that its explosive growth years appear to be slowing, whether its competitive advantage can survive YouTube and an increasingly crowded streaming market, and why the former FANG stock may ultimately become a very different kind of business.
Then billionaire matchmaker Lauren Hunter joins the pod to explain how she finds partners for celebrities, politicians...
Private Credit Explained: How Aura is helping close the $250bn Funding Gap
Adam and Adir sit down with Brett Craig from Aura Group to unpack what private credit actually is, why the industry exploded after the GFC and how non-bank lenders are filling a funding gap left by Australia’s major banks. Brett explains Aura’s “lending to lenders” model, why liquidity mismatches can force private credit funds to gate withdrawals, how invoice financing works, and why Aura even lends against sheep and cattle. They also discuss Australia’s estimated $250 billion business funding gap, the recent backlash against private credit, risk, diversification and what investors should actually look for inside these funds.
...Anthropic’s Massive IPO. Will it Sink?
Emergency pod!
Anthropic has finally opened its books, giving Adam and Adir their clearest look yet at the economics behind Claude and one of the fastest-growing businesses in history.
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NextDC Disaster, is Canva's Comeback for Real, Airbnb Rule Change and Rich Investor Tax Shock
Adam and Adir unpack the tax shock hitting Australian venture capital and private equity, including why carried interest has historically received favourable treatment and what the government's new capital gains rules could mean for fund managers.
They also look at France's extraordinary levels of government spending and the growing tension between generations over wealth, housing and welfare.
Then it's back to tech and business. Canva launches its own image generation model as it fights to stay relevant in the AI era, Airbnb finally cracks down on excessive checkout chores, NextDC loses more than 40% in a...
How Adam Runs Luxury Escapes and Builds Great Teams
Adam and Will go inside the way Luxury Escapes is actually run, from the decisions Adam still personally signs off on to the systems, people and mental models behind one of Australia's biggest travel businesses.
Adam explains why CEOs should never become blockers, why he dislikes traditional strategy days, how Luxury Escapes stays entrepreneurial with hundreds of employees, what makes a great salesperson, how he thinks about culture and when it's time to move someone on.
They also unpack Luxury Escapes' competitive advantages, its approach to brand and marketing, sustainable growth over inflated valuations, and...
Anthropic’s $2tn Fever Dream, Firmus Tanks AI Globally, Maas' Week from Hell and is Software Dead?
Adam and Adir unpack the latest fallout from Australia’s surcharge ban, the rise of PayID and PayTo, Victoria’s new auction rules and a software developer recreating products like Photoshop with AI.
Then they turn to the growing cracks in the AI boom: the Firmus fallout spreading through CoreWeave and other data-centre names, MAAS Group’s brutal sell-off and aggressive buybacks, and Anthropic’s extraordinary growth, and whether a potential $2 trillion valuation can possibly be justified.
01:58 - Ticket Bots and Radiohead
07:15 - Springvale, Retail and PayID
14:12 - The Surc...
Soul Patts: The $18bn ASX Giant Most Australians Have Never Heard Of
Adam, Adir and Scott Middleton from Terem Capital take a deep dive into Washington H. Soul Pattinson, the $18bn ASX giant hiding in plain sight.
They trace Soul Patts from its pharmacy roots through Brickworks, New Hope, NBN and TPG, unpack how permanent capital and patient dealmaking have compounded across generations, and examine the investment philosophy that has made the company one of Australia’s most enduring businesses.
Then they tackle the harder question: after more than a century of extraordinary results, is Soul Patts’ premium valuation still justified today?
00:08 - Th...
Firmus’ IPO Fallout with Guest John Stensholt, Maas Smashed, Swipejobs’ $2bn IPO and Melbourne Marathon Chaos
Adam and Adir unpack the fallout from Melbourne Marathon weekend, the surprising decline in alcohol consumption and the latest consequences of Australia’s surcharge changes, before John Stensholt joins the show to break down the spectacular collapse of Firmus’ planned ASX float.
They dig into what went wrong with the $44 billion IPO, what it means for Oliver Curtis and MAAS Group, and where the data-centre story goes from here, before turning to Katrina Leslie’s remarkable Swipejobs story and its potential multi-billion-dollar listing.
01:34 - Melbourne Marathon Chaos
12:48 - Reta...
Blackmagic Founder Cage Match, More Cettire Drama and is Bending Spoons the Real Deal?
Adam and Adir unpack the ugly founder and shareholder battle at Blackmagic Design, what it says about minority ownership and why a strong shareholders agreement matters.
They then revisit Cettire after Dean Mintz buys another $2.7 million of shares and debate whether taking the company private could make sense, before turning to Bending Spoons’ acquisition of Miro and whether its highly leveraged “cigar butt” strategy can really create lasting value.
Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/
Firmus IPO Pulled: We go inside and explain what went wrong
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Jim’s Inflation Catastrophe, Credit Card Surcharge Backlash, Codan Goes Parabolic, Iran’s Negotiation Fail, Joby Takes Off and Mike’s Apology
Adam and Adir unpack the fallout from Australia’s credit-card surcharge changes, why retailers and consumers may both end up worse off, and whether the policy risks adding more inflationary pressure. Mike apologises for GTAVI misinformation, discussing Codan’s extraordinary growth and valuation, and dig into Joby Aviation, autonomous aircraft and the future of flying taxis.
00:00 - Queenstown, Tourism and GTA 6
20:45 - Credit Card Surcharges and Retail
54:02 - Iran, Energy and Geopolitics
1:04:21 - Australia’s Biggest Tech Businesses
1:09:35 - Codan’s Incredible Run
1:17:43 - Joby, Fl...
Retail Disaster, Firmus Goes to the Moon (Allegedly) and is Private Equity’s Golden Run Ending?
Adam and Adir unpack the brutal sell-off across Australian retail, where names like JB Hi-Fi, Nick Scali, Temple & Webster and Myer sit in the cycle, and whether the downturn is starting to create long-term bargains. They also dig into Mass Group’s surge, Firmus’ extraordinary valuation trajectory and the risks around the data-centre boom, before turning to private equity and why the industry is suddenly struggling to find exits. 00:00 - Retail Gets Crushed 11:46 - Mass Group and Firmus 23:58 - Private Equity Runs Out Of Exits Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/
AI Money Furnace, Lottery Deep Dive, Fair Work Loses the Plot and AirTree Fight Goes Public
Adam and Adir dig into whether businesses are actually generating enough economic value from AI to justify the enormous amount being spent on it, before unpacking a controversial Fair Work ruling involving an Uber driver. They also take a deep dive into The Lottery Corporation’s monopoly economics, digital migration and valuation, before turning to the increasingly public intrigue around AirTree, Eucalyptus and the AFR.
00:00 - Intro and The Grand Final Public Holiday
05:15 - Coles, Finish and Dishwasher Tablet Pricing
12:28 - The Cost Of Eating Around The World
20:10...
Meta Comes Back, JB Hi-Fi Gets Cheap, and Hello World’s $135m Acquisition Gets Weird
Adam and Adir dig into Meta’s latest AI push and the risks of handing autonomous agents access to your personal data, before turning to JB Hi-Fi’s battered share price and whether GTA 6 can really move the needle. They also unpack Hello World’s $135 million acquisition of Crown Currency Exchange, and why the size, structure and disclosure around the deal raises so many questions.
Thank you to Visa for sponsoring today's episode. Find out more about how to turn business spend into better benefits with Visa here.
00:00 - Meta a...
Commercial Property Cycle, Retail’s Comeback, Aged Care and Finding Value Where Nobody’s Looking: with Commercial Property Gun, Tim Slattery
Tim Slattery joins Adam and Adir to unpack his journey from becoming an ASX CEO at around 30 to selling APN Property Group to Dexus for more than $300 million and starting again with ASA Real Estate Partners. They dig into commercial property cycles, industrial and office markets, why shopping centres survived the e-commerce threat, and the unloved sectors, including specialised care property, where Tim sees opportunity.
This episode was part of a paid partnership with ASA Real Estate Partners. We thank them for supporting the pod and keeping all of our content free.https://www...
Firmus Goes to the Moon, Anthropic’s Profit Problem, Founder Tax Chaos, Breakthrough Victoria Death March and Xero's Year from Hell
Adam and Adir unpack Anthropic’s unusual approach to profitability, the extraordinary valuation being floated for Firmus and what could eventually unwind the economics of the AI boom. They also dig into Australia’s founder tax changes, Breakthrough Victoria and the National Reconstruction Fund, before turning to Xero’s executive pay fight, US strategy and brutal share-price decline.
00:00 - Adir's Gaming Sesh
12:31 - The US Open and The Focus of Winners
16:09 - Victoria’s Pothole Crisis
22:46 - Anthropic’s Economics and The AI Bubble
38:03 - Firmus and The $50bn Valuation<...
Ask Us Anything: How Do We Get Real People Into Politics? + When Is It Time To Pivot? (with Chris Judd)
Live from The Commons in Cremorne, Adam and Adir are joined by Chris Judd for a special Ask Us Anything episode.
This week:
How do we attract more capable people into politics?What would actually improve productivity in Australia?When should founders, investors and operators pivot, hold course or walk away?Got a question you want answered? Drop it in the comments!
Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/
HMC Capital Comeback Tour and AFG Fights Housing Slump: With Star Fund Manager Luke Laretive
Luke Laretive joins Adam and Adir to unpack how Seneca approaches active investing, why its small-cap fund uses an unusually aligned fee structure, and where he still sees opportunities in an increasingly passive market.
They dig into Australian Finance Group’s mortgage and lending business, HMC Capital’s brutal repricing, HealthCo and Healthscope, DigiCo, private credit and why the market may be overlooking some very cheap assets.
00:00 - Luke Laretive and Seneca
16:05 - AFG Deep Dive
32:14 - HMC Capital Deep Dive
40:11 - HealthCo, DigiCo and Private Credit
<...
Live Show, Macro Investing King Chris Judd joins, Apple’s $3,500 Foldable Bet, Australia’s Housing Mess, Cogstate and the Firmus Moneyshot
Adam and Adir record live from The Commons in Cremorne, covering Australia’s worsening housing and rent crisis, Apple’s rumoured folding iPhone, the company’s pricing power, and whether AI’s frontier model economics can survive customers moving to cheaper alternatives. Chris Judd then joins to talk markets, uncertainty, inflation, US debt, Cogstate, MAAS Group, Firmus, data centres, founder-led investing and why the best returns often come from backing people prepared to think differently.
00:00 - Live From The Commons
03:07 - Australia’s Housing and Rent Crisis
19:02 - Apple’s Folding iPho...
Is Yo-Chi our next Decacorn, AI Comes for the Lawyers and should CEOs also take Board Seats
Adam and Adir debate whether founders and senior executives should be allowed to sit on external boards while running a business, before turning to the coming pressure on big law fees as AI starts breaking the traditional leverage model. They also unpack Yo-Chi’s extraordinary rise, its reported billion-dollar-plus valuation, global expansion plans, store economics, and why timing, product and execution can turn a good retail concept into a monster business.
01:05 - The CEO Board Seat Debate
09:26 - AI Comes For Big Law
24:29 - Yo-Chi’s $2bn Valuation
29:54 - Wh...
Expert360 Heartbreak, CTM is Back, Iran Stalemate gets less Stale and The Athlete Rich List
Adam and Adir unpack Expert360’s painful sale, why founders need to think carefully about golden windows, and what CTM’s return to the ASX says about survival, short sellers and investor risk. They also dig into Iran’s blockade problem, student politics at Monash, Alastair Clarkson’s messy North Melbourne exit, and the athlete rich list quiz that turns into a bigger conversation about brand, equity and celebrity power.
00:00 - Intro
12:20 - Alistair Clarkson & North Melbourne
25:08 - Student Politics at Monash
36:17 - The Athlete Rich List Quiz
50:30 - Iran and the Straight of Hormu...
Retail Deep Dive: Kogan shows the money and Cettire close to the edge
Australia’s retail stocks are getting smashed, but Adam and Adir think the sell-off could finally be creating opportunities in businesses like JB Hi-Fi, Kogan and Koala.
Meanwhile, Cettire has lost 95% of its value in two years and its latest results raise even more questions about how long the luxury retailer can keep going.
00:00 Australian Retail Stocks Are Getting Smashed
12:41 Kogan, Temple & Webster and Koala
16:40 Cettire’s Collapse & The Art of Contrarian Investing
Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/
Try Braze
Canva’s Investor Dumpster Fire, Xero’s Shareholder Smackdown, CTM’s Lifesasver Deal and GTA's $3.5bn Bet
Adam and Adir unpack the investor fight building around Canva, AirTree and the painful question of when early backers should finally get liquidity. They also dig into Xero’s shareholder revolt, Corporate Travel Management’s surprise rescue deal, Zoox’s lost upside, the return of hardware startups, and why Disney might be one of the rare businesses with almost every major competitive power.
00:00 - Defcon Merch and Tansu’s First Week
07:14 - Zoox
16:31 - Vanguard Smart Glasses
23:05 - Leo Esaki's Five Don'ts
27:47 - Disney's Hidden Powers
35:53 - GTA VI
43:13 - Eureka Pet Co.<...
OpenAI Burns Billions, Temple & Webster Gets Crushed
Adam and Adir unpack the strange economics of AI, with OpenAI burning billions, Anthropic claiming explosive growth, and investors still trying to work out where the real profits will come from. They also dig into Temple & Webster’s brutal share price collapse, the limits of its retail model, and why even strong operators can struggle inside a brutally hard business.
00:00 - OpenAI, Anthropic and The AI Money Problem
14:39 - Temple & Webster Gets Whacked
Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/
The World's Best Negotiator Returns To The Contrarians
Adam and Adir are joined by negotiation expert Vicki Medvec to discuss how to negotiate better deals, use anchoring, understand BATNA, manage emotion, create multiple offers, avoid losing value at the finish line and solve the other side’s problem. Vicki also explains bucket issues, storytelling issues, negotiation power, cross-cultural differences and why the best negotiators focus less on themselves and more on what the other side really needs.
Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/
Buy Vicki's Book: https://www.amazon.com.au/Negotiate-without-Fear-Strategies-Maximize/dp/1119719097
GYG’s Blowout Result, Adir’s Luggage Startup, Sydney's Pullman Five and Culture Amp’s AI Fight
Adam and Adir cover a messy week of airports, taxis, AI tools and data privacy before turning to Sydney's Pullman Five and the erosion of the presumption of innocence in public life. They also unpack Culture Amp’s AI data changes, Spirit Airlines’ email archive being sold for training data, Guzman y Gomez’s impressive result, and Adir’s long, painful, surprisingly successful launch of his new luggage brand Tanssu.
00:00 - Wispr, RSI and The Curse in Disguise
07:12 - Telstra’s Futurama Phone Box Fail
10:13 - Mobile Phones, Parenting and Always Being Contactable
12:35 - Uber, Taxi...
Housing Crash Gets Real, NVIDIA’s AI Factory Gamble, Canva’s Markdown
Adam and Adir unpack the growing pressure in Australia’s housing market, with falling prices, sticky inflation and the fallout from the federal budget creating a messy economic picture. They also dig into NVIDIA’s latest AI infrastructure financing play, why CUDA may not be as untouchable as it once looked, and whether the AI boom is starting to look more fragile. Plus, Canva’s valuation gets marked down, SaaS multiples come back to earth, and Blackbird raises another billion dollars.
00:00 - Australia's Housing Crash
10:21 - NVIDIA
24:45 - Canva's Valuation Markdown
Join us on Sub...
Tech Bros Goes Off, DEF CON Hackers, Waymo vs Zoox, and The LinkedIn Algorithm
Adam and Adir unpack San Francisco’s AI-fuelled tech boom, from Waymo and Zoox to Figma’s aggressive push and Lovable’s wild valuation. Later, Adir explains what DEF CON reveals about modern cybersecurity, before John Stensholt joins to discuss Tech Bros, Atlassian’s founder breakup and the strange billionaire world of Mike Cannon-Brookes and Scott Farquhar.
GET YOUR TICKET TO THE CONTRARIANS LIVE! https://events.humanitix.com/the-contrarians-live
John Stensholt's book 'Tech Bros' is available now: https://harpercollins.com.au/products/9781460769492
00:00 - San Francisco, Waymo and Zoox
08:00 - Figma, AI and the API...
Australia's Most Powerful VCs Join the Pod
Hear Blackbird's Rick Baker, Airtree's Craig Blair and Jelix's Ian Gardiner discuss the AI Bubble, CGT Founder Chaos and Australia's Startup Future
Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/
Canva’s AI Crisis, Zoox Changes Everything, Xero’s Ad Disaster, Jetstar’s Bag War, and Atlassian’s Profit Pivot
Adam and Adir discuss Zoox, Waymo, autonomous cars, Xero’s strange Vegas advertising, Sukhinder Singh Cassidy, Victoria’s work-from-home laws, Delta One, airline lounges, Jetstar’s carry-on bag crackdown, Ryanair, Canva’s slowing growth, AI design tools, Claude, OpenAI, Figma, Atlassian’s profit pivot and the future of Australia’s biggest tech companies.
Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/
Canva’s $60bn Problem and eBay’s Corporate Terrorism Scandal
Adam and Adir discuss Canva’s slowing growth, its $60 billion valuation, Figma, Meta, AI design tools, OpenAI, Anthropic, the pressure on Australia’s biggest private tech company, eBay’s corporate terrorism scandal, the Steiners, Devin Wenig, CEO accountability, the $55 million settlement and why corporate consequences rarely reach the top.
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AI Fund Explodes, Alan Joyce is Back, Victoria’s Labor Reset, Fauci’s COVID Reckoning and Credit Card Chaos
Adam and Adir discuss Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan, Victoria’s work-from-home laws, credit card fees, AI chatbots, bad customer experience, the “logo CEO” problem, Qantas, Alan Joyce, self-managed super property changes, Gen Z drinking habits, OSW and the battery boom, Anthony Fauci, COVID lockdowns, Leopold Aschenbrenner’s AI fund blow-up, Anthropic, Nvidia and the AI bubble.
01:07 - Victoria's Leadership Change
06:52 - Credit Cards
13:20 - AI Customer Service
18:26 - Logo Changes and Rebrands
27:08 - Alan Joyce
41:08. - Property Rules
51:59 - OSW
1:03:22 - Fauci, COVID and the Pandemic Reckoning
1:16:30 - Leo Lats...
Tesla Going Down...Down, Immutable’s Massive Fall and Australia’s Unicorn Bubble
Adam and Adir discuss Tesla’s profit collapse, Elon Musk’s valuation premium, robotaxis, self-driving, BYD, SpaceX, Starlink, Richard White, Immutable, blockchain gaming, NFTs, crypto tokens, Australia’s unicorn bubble and the $3.5 billion valuation that never made sense.
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AI Bubble, Waymo Ditches Uber, Jacinta Allan’s Disaster, KPMG Scandal and Jim Chalmers’ Crashes Housing in All the Wrong Places
Adam and Adir discuss the Labor Party conference, Ed Husic, Jacinta Allan’s political problems, Victoria’s unemployment rate, a 1998 celebrity earnings quiz, Etched and the AI chip race, Nvidia, OpenAI, KPMG’s Lendlease audit scandal, Waymo vs Uber, Revolut, bank fees, Jim Chalmers’ housing policy and Australia’s property risk.
Watch the video Adam mentions: https://www.instagram.com/reels/DbNXhESCeXM/
2:06 - Ed Husic and the Gaza Debate
8:46 - Jacinta Allen and Victorian Labor
13:45 - Work From Home Laws
19:19 - Highest Earning Celebrities of 1998
35:33 - Nvidia's Margin Problem
57:11 - KPMG
1:0...
SpaceX Returns to Earth, Tesla's Shrinking Powers and Atlassian Ruins Loom
Adam and Adir discuss luxury hotel inflation, Instagram status games, SpaceX’s valuation drop, Starlink’s powers, Tesla vs BYD, Australia’s best-selling cars, Atlassian’s Loom problem, Mike Cannon-Brookes and Adam’s safari life.
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Xero Gets Whacked, 4DMedical’s Meme Stock Moment, SEN Circles ARN, Uber's Loyalty Lock Up, and Adam’s Safari Business Lessons
Adam and Adir discuss safari business lessons, England vs Argentina, Murderbot Diaries and $0.99 Kindle funnels, Uber One, Lux Plus, Marxism, social democracy, Xero’s CEO share sale, SEN circling ARN, Jackie O, 4DMedical, Pro Medicus comparisons and meme stock valuations.
Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/
00:00 - Adam’s Safari Experience
11:08 - England vs Argentina and Why Playing Defence Kills Winners
15:35 - 99c Kindle Funnel
22:14 - Uber One vs Lux Plus
31:20 - Collective Noun Quiz
36:17 - Marxism & Capitalism
55:10 - Xero’s CEO Share...
Deep Dive: Bending Spoons - Genius or Disaster?
Adam & Adir examine Bending Spoon's extraordinary rise, its blockbuster IPO, comparisons with Berkshire Hathaway and Constellation Software, the risks created by its aggressive use of leverage, and whether Bending Spoons is an ingenious software conglomerate or an enormously overvalued house of cards.
Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/
Nvidia's AI Trade, Telstra’s Disaster, EasyJet’s Takeover Fight, Protein Mania, and TEG Loses the Plot
Adam and Adir discuss EasyJet and the economics of discount airlines, Telstra’s outage, Twinkies, protein mania, gambling, Norway’s sporting machine, work from home obesity, Nvidia and Fermi’s AI bubble, Bitcoin, TEG, Ticketek and Live Nation.
Watch the Luton Airport Prank Video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ya_LluCl16k
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Ask Us Anything: How do you explain average grades? + Should workers own more of the businesses they help build?
Happy Saturday! We’re answering another batch of your questions this week.
This week you asked:
🧠 How should someone with a strong career but average academic results explain ADHD and employability concerns to a potential employer?
🤝 Should Australia adopt broader employee ownership models to help workers build wealth and support retiring SME owners?
🇦🇺 What is Australia’s greatest invention in terms of global impact or global good?
Have something you want Adam and Adir to answer next? Drop it in the comments!
Join us on Substack for arti...
AI’s $7 Trillion Bubble, Corporate Travel’s Next Disaster, Work From Home Revolts, and The Man Shake Buy Back
Adam and Adir discuss London’s heat wave, Victoria’s crime wave, Labor’s housing mess, the world’s most profitable companies, Nvidia and the AI bubble, remote work, Canva vs Figma, Koala, SkinKandy, The Man Shake and the latest Corporate Travel disaster.
00:00 - London's Heat Wave
06:00 - Victoria's Crime Wave and the Housing Debate
14:00 - The 30 Most Profitable Companies
23:00 - The AI Bubble, Nvidia and the $7 Trillion Question
44:00 - CGT, Capitalism and Labor's Budget Backlash
54:00 - Remote Work, Gen Z and Canva's Office Crackdown
1:05:01 - Koala, SkinKandy and the ASX IPO Prob...
