The Lumber Word

Is the lumber market approaching one of the best buying opportunities of the year—or are buyers still too early? In Episode #189, Ashley Boeckholt, Gregg Riley, and Matt Beymer debate a weakening cash market, aggressive mill discounts, low inventories downstream, and the prospects for a seasonal rebound.

Ashley lays out the bearish case, including inventory pressure from VMI programs, uncertain housing demand, and the risk that prices stay low. Gregg argues that buyers with storage and capital should begin building their first-quarter positions in stages. Matt examines seasonal production curtailments, changing Hem-Fir versus SPF values, and the ri...

The lumber market is sending mixed signals. Buyers are keeping inventories lean, mills are struggling to maintain profitability, and housing demand continues to disappoint. Yet lumber is still moving, and certain products are commanding surprising premiums.

This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, and Charles welcome back Mike Logelin of Gulf Coast Shelter for an unfiltered discussion of the North American lumber market heading into the final months of 2026.

From Southern Yellow Pine versus SPF pricing and mill breakevens to weak housing starts, construction labor shortages, and the challenge of making money...

Lumber prices are soft—but the demand picture may surprise you. Scott Hall of Matheus Lumber joins The Lumber Word crew to explain why his company’s lumber volume has held relatively steady, where multifamily business is growing, and what customers are already booking for 2027.

Ashley Boeckholt, Gregg Riley, Matt Beymer, and Charles discuss whether SPF, US Species and SYP are finding a bottom, how mill curtailments may be supporting prices, and why freight remains a major challenge. Scott shares how he manages inventory against future commitments, why buying too far ahead can add costs, and what...

AI, data centers and lumber? They're more connected than you might think.

Dustin Jalbert, Economist and Director of Wood Products & Timber at Fastmarkets, joins The Lumber Word to break down a North American lumber market where supply, imports, species and demand are all shifting at the same time.

The conversation digs into falling Canadian and European imports, changing U.S. lumber availability, Southern Pine and western-species substitution, sawmill residuals and what the headline lumber numbers may be missing.

Then Dustin takes us into one of the biggest economic stories affecting...

What goes into a Random Lengths lumber price assessment?

Mary Hansen of Fastmarkets Random Lengths joins The Lumber Word for a behind-the-scenes look at some of the methodology behind lumber market reporting. Mary explains the difference between a reporter and an economist, how market information is gathered through multiple channels, why confirmed transactions carry weight, and how volume, timing and market context factor into an assessment.

We also dig into some of the Random Lengths data and tools subscribers may not realize they're already getting — including European 2x4's; spruce pricing, Southern Pine Pr...

The lumber market is heading into Q4 with an unusual setup: inventories across the supply chain appear extremely lean, yet buyers still aren't willing to take much risk.

In Episode #183, Ashley, Matt, Gregg and Charles dig into what's actually trading versus published prices, growing price disparities between mills, tightening truck availability, rail issues and the increasingly important role of freight. The group also breaks down housing starts, builder headwinds, interest rates and what declining demand could mean for mill production and lumber prices into year-end.

With 2x4 looking increasingly vulnerable while several other items remain...

The lumber market is moving plenty of volume—but not necessarily going anywhere. This week, Ashley, Gregg and Charles are joined by Bart Charles to break down a market that is strongly sideways. The crew digs into Spruce, Hem-Fir and Southern Yellow Pine, the growing opportunity in forward pricing, tight supply in key items, and why getting aggressively long or short could be a mistake right now.

With futures offering opportunities to lock in Q1 business, limited production keeping a floor under prices, and housing demand still fighting affordability, the question becomes: Where is the next real op...

Is the lumber market finally trying to put in a bottom—or is this just another bounce before seasonal weakness takes over?

This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, and Charles break down the latest action across SPF, Southern Yellow Pine, Hem-Fir, studs, and CME lumber futures. The guys discuss the growing disconnect between September futures and the cash market, the possibility of taking delivery against September, and why some buyers may want to start covering needs rather than waiting for the perfect bottom.

Charles takes a deep dive into Southern Yellow Pine, where sh...

The lumber market is getting interesting again—and the signals aren’t exactly lining up.

Ashley, Gregg, and Matt break down a market where demand remains “punky,” western species flailing, studs are showing slight signs of life after deep counters, and lumber futures are trading at a steep discount to cash. The big question: Is November lumber really headed toward $500—or is the futures market getting too bearish?

Gregg lays out the technical case for why $500 is at least possible, while Matt sees real value developing at current levels and argues that some of the best buyin...

The lumber market has cooled off — but has it found a bottom?

This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt and Charles break down a market where you can seemingly “sell as much lumber as you want and not make any money.” Eastern SPF has taken a serious haircut, studs are showing signs of life, Southern Pine has firmed from its lows, and low inventories throughout the supply chain could make the next move happen fast.

The crew digs into SPF, Southern Pine, Doug Fir, studs, 2x4 and 2x6, where real business is trading, and wh...

The lumber market just dropped roughly $100 in three weeks - but is the selloff creating the next big buying opportunity? 

In Episode #178 of The Lumber Word, industry veteran Sig Thoma joins Ashley, Gregg, and Matt for a wide-ranging conversation about what's really happening beneath the surface of the lumber market. 

Inventories are getting lean, cash prices are falling well below published levels, and CME lumber futures are carrying a major discount. Sig brings a broader perspective to the conversation, including a fascinating look at a massive lumber buyer whose sheds were nearly empty - a si...

This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley Boeckholt, Gregg Matt, and Charles welcome Kyle Little, COO of Sherwood Lumber and Immediate Past Chair of NAWLA, for an in-depth conversation on one of the biggest changes in the lumber industry's premier trade organization.

Kyle explains how NAWLA is opening its 2026 Traders Market in Anaheim, CA, November 4-6, to the broader wood products industry, making networking, education, and collaboration more accessible than ever before. The discussion also explores the association's long-term vision and why these changes could reshape industry relationships for years to come.

The crew then...

The lumber market may feel quiet, but beneath the surface, major forces are shaping the second half of 2026. In Episode 176 of The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles break down slowing summer activity, surprising housing data, Canadian production cuts, Southern Yellow Pine trends, and why lumber futures remain one of the industry's most underused risk management tools. Plus, the crew dives deep into species spreads, pricing opportunities, and what separates great lumber traders from everyone else.

00:00 – Summer slowdown or just a seasonal pause?

05:30 – Housing starts surprise the market: supply vs. demand

The lumber market may feel quiet—but beneath the surface, major shifts are taking place.

In Episode #175 of The Lumber Word, Ashley Boeckholt, Greg Riley, Matt Beymer, and Charles DeLaTorre discuss why the current market could be setting up for its next significant move. The crew breaks down Canadian SPF, Southern Yellow Pine, Western species, and why inventory positioning may matter more than ever heading into late summer.

Matt shares insights from the Inland Lumber Producers Conference, highlighting how market conditions have become highly regionalized across North America. The conversation also pays tribute to three re...

Russ Taylor of Russ Taylor Global returns to The Lumber Word for a deep dive into one of the most fascinating lumber markets in years. The crew discusses shrinking North American production, tightening inventories, Canadian export trends, Southern Pine pricing, mill profitability, tariffs, transportation, and why supply—not demand—continues to drive prices. With production capacity permanently removed across North America and limited ability to quickly restart mills, the panel explores whether higher prices are here to stay into late 2026. If you trade, manufacture, distribute, or simply follow the lumber industry, this episode delivers market intelligence you won't want to m...

Episode Summary

Episode #173 welcomes returning guest Mike Wisnefski of Westline Capital for an in-depth discussion on the evolving lumber market. The panel explores lessons from the Southern Pine Conference, why the CME Southern Pine futures contract could benefit from monthly expirations, and how better participation could improve liquidity. Mike shares how private equity ownership is changing sawmill decision-making, while the group examines why Western and Eastern lumber markets have tightened despite mixed economic headlines. The conversation also dives into inventory strategy, options pricing, reload capacity, trucking, and the growing importance of disciplined risk management. Finally, the hosts debate housing...

Matt Layman returns to The Lumber Word for an in-depth discussion on one of the hottest topics in the lumber industry: the summer lumber rally. With inventories running lean, freight markets tightening, and mills extending order files, the crew explores whether lumber prices still have room to run.

The conversation begins with a recap of the Southern Pine hedging seminar hosted by StoneX and Westline Capital, where attendees discussed the future of lumber risk management, liquidity challenges, and why more companies need to gain hands-on experience using futures markets.

The group then shifts to the...

The lumber market may be sending its clearest signal of 2026: supply is shrinking, inventories are lean, and futures are leading the charge higher. In Episode 171, the crew welcomes industry veteran Kip Fotheringham for a deep dive into the forces reshaping North American lumber markets.

From tightening SPF supply and Southern Yellow Pine transportation challenges to Canadian curtailments, futures fund short covering, and the surprising resilience of housing demand, the group lays out the bullish case that's beginning to unfold. They debate whether we're in the first inning or the third inning of a larger rally, examine why...

This week on The Lumber Word, the crew tackles the biggest issue in lumber today: freight. From Buffalo reloads buried under railcars to Southern Pine mills struggling with transportation costs, the conversation centers on how logistics—not mill prices—are driving the market. The team discusses tightening inventories, shrinking North American supply, species substitution, and why prompt wood may be worth more than ever. Gregg doubles down on his bullish lumber outlook, while the group debates whether SPF is significantly undervalued heading into the second half of 2026. If freight remains tight and supply stays constrained, the market could be sett...

The crew breaks down a lumber market that feels calm on the surface but is getting tighter underneath. Trucking is a disaster, inventories stay lean, mills are not panicking, and buyers still have not adjusted.

0:00-4:00 - College kids, Waymos, and bad decisions after midnight

4:00-9:00 - SYP stabilizes but trucking wrecks pricing

9:00-15:00 - Freight market insanity and disappearing trucks

15:00-22:00 - Spruce stays steady while inventories thin out

22:00-28:00 - Canadian curtailments and supply fears build

28:00-34:00 - Reloads emptying and buyers still underbought

This week on The Lumber Word, Matt, Gregg, Ashley, and guest Mike Wisnefski from Westline Capital Strategies break down one of the most interesting lumber markets in years. The crew discusses low volatility, lean inventories, seasonal strength, futures market psychology, pine versus spruce pricing, multifamily demand, and why the next major lumber move could happen fast. The episode also explores European lumber markets, supply chain transparency, and current housing market realities.

This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles break down one of the more confusing lumber markets in recent memory. Despite fears coming out of Montréal, buyers haven’t really changed behavior, trucking is slowly improving, and distributors are still moving wood. The crew dives deep into the widening divide between Southern Pine and Western species, shrinking production, freight chaos, inventory strategy, and whether the market is quietly building the foundation for higher prices later this summer. The big question: are we in equilibrium… or on the verge of another squeeze?

0:00 – 3:00 — Market recap aft...

This week’s episode breaks down a confusing lumber market where price prints don’t reflect reality. Southern Pine appears to be selling off, but much of the move is driven by rising and volatile freight costs rather than true demand weakness. Inventory remains tight in many regions, while buyers hesitate due to bearish sentiment and futures discounts. Meanwhile, multifamily construction continues to support demand, even as overall housing trends flatten. The result is a fragmented, regional “island market” where logistics—not supply—are dictating price.

0:00 – Market Setup: Weak tone on paper, post-Montreal reset

2:00 – Pine...

Summary

Recorded during Montreal Wood Convention week with Kip Fotheringham, this episode breaks down a confusing but strong lumber market.

Truck demand is hot, rail is lagging, and inventories are being drawn down while big buyers stay just-in-time. Euro supply is tightening, tariffs remain a wildcard, and mills still aren’t making money—keeping supply in check.

The big question: Is this market about to roll over… or keep grinding higher?

0:00 – Market confusion + SYP volatility

2:00 – Truck vs rail market split

4:00 – Inventory drawdown strategy

6:00 – SPF strength + tight supply

...

Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles are joined by Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist at First Trust Advisors, a bestselling author, and one of the most sought-after voices in macroeconomics today. When markets get noisy, Brian’s the guy cutting through it with data and conviction.

The crew dives into the macro forces shaping lumber—from government spending and the “K-shaped” economy to housing completions, freight spikes, and regional demand shifts. 

They break down why affordability is still broken, what’s driving trucking chaos, and whether strong Southern demand can carry the market forward. Plus—how AI, migration tre...

Holy Week edition with a major announcement—The Lumber Word is going subscription for people wanting to listen first!
The crew breaks down what that means, why timing matters in a 24–48-hour data market,
and then dives headfirst into one of the wildest setups we’ve seen: freight chaos,
pine vs. spruce divergence, and a market that might still have legs… or be closer to the edge than you think.

0:00 – Holy Week kickoff + big shift to subscriber early access (no ads, faster intel)

4:00 – Russ Taylor debate, AD/CVD reality, and why noth...

Mike Logelin (Gulf Coast Shelter) is back and breaking down what it really looks like to build a lumber business from the ground up—team building, growing pains, and why patience matters in today’s market. Then the crew dives headfirst into one of the most dynamic setups we’ve seen in a while: tightening supply, exploding low-grade pricing, and a freight market that’s turning everything upside down.

From Southern Yellow Pine ripping higher to spruce and hem-fir tightening fast, this episode connects the dots between species spreads, trucking chaos, and why the next “panic buy” moment might...

The lumber market just flipped. What looked slow turned into real buying, tightening supply, and rising prices—fast. This week, the crew breaks down why low-grade and studs are leading, freight is becoming a major constraint, and order files are pushing into April. Buyers who waited are now chasing, while supply cuts and steady demand raise a bigger question: are we already short of wood? If so, this move may just be getting started.

0:00 – Market flips from slow to active

2:30 – Low-grade & studs lead strength

7:00 – Prices up ~$100+ since Nov

10:00 – Order files into April...

Freight is exploding, mills are pulling back, and lumber prices are quietly starting to run.

The lumber market flipped fast this week. Freight costs surged, Canadian mills stepped back from truck shipments, and prices began climbing across species.

Ashley, Matt, Gregg, Charles, and Sig break down tightening supply, Southern Yellow Pine strength, and whether this is the start of a spring lumber run or just another head fake in the cycle.

00:00 – Intro & market setup

03:00 – Freight costs jump

07:00 – Pine vs spruce pricing

12:00 – Supply vs willingness to pay<...

The lumber market is deep in the **fog of war**. Freight is tightening, trucking rates are jumping, and species spreads are shifting fast. In Episode #159, Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles break down why flatbed capacity is suddenly scarce, how Southern Yellow Pine is catching a bid while eastern spruce softens, and what heavy Doug Fir production in the West could mean for the market.

The crew also tackles the big question: **where is the missing demand?** Canadian shipments are down, production is lower across North America, yet prices haven’t fully reacted. Are buyers simply running leaner in...

Kip Fotheringham joins the crew to break down a lumber market that feels coiled.

Canadian shipments are down 30% year-over-year. Inventory on the ground is near multi-year lows. Futures are trading at a discount to cash. And dealers are running lean.

So are we stuck in a trading range… or one buying shift away from a $100 move?

In this episode, the guys debate:

Why majors aren’t aggressively EFP’ing

Government “support” vs. subsidy risk in Canada

Southern Pine regional price spreads

What happens if retailers add just 2...

This week, we welcome Thomas Mende back to break down what’s really happening in the lumber market.

Eastern Spruce is showing selective discounts (especially 16’s), Southern Pine had midweek block buying, and Western low-grade is tight while higher grades sit. Are we finally near equilibrium?

Thomas walks through European production declines, rising log costs, and why tariffs alone don’t drive shipments — economics do. Canadian shipments are down sharply year over year, and when you combine that with slightly softer housing starts, supply and demand may be closer than most think.

We also dig...

Is the lumber market quiet… or is it weak? That’s the debate this week on The Lumber Word Podcast.

Charles breaks down how SYP is trading — some items are moving, but others are dug in tight.
Matt walks through what he’s seeing in Texas as activity starts to open up, and why low-grade SPF is creeping closer to #2 in ways that matter. Gregg zooms out to the macro, unpacking monetary supply and asking the big question: what kind of price move would hurt the most people the most?  Ashley connects the dots on what he knows...

Senior Economist Dustin Jalbert from Fastmarkets is back, and that means it’s time to stress-test the lumber market. We dig into real supply and demand, where we are in the cycle, and what buyers and sellers are actually saying. Were we too bullish the past few weeks? Will the cost of production finally pull capacity, or do higher prices today just set up lower prices tomorrow? Tune in and recalibrate your lumber compass.

Advertiser and Guest

Fastmarkets RISI

Dustin Jalbert

Senior Economist Wood Products

[email protected]...

Two familiar faces are back as Bart Charles and Matt Layman join us to break down a lumber market that just won’t quit. Prices across all species are climbing the classic wall of worry—up nearly $100/MBF in the last two months and still catching a bid. With big multifamily jobbers caught short and orders leaking back in, is an $800/MBF print really in play?

Take a breather, hit play, and hear what we think—most listeners walk away a lot smarter and entertained.

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The lumber market keeps showing strength across all species. Gregg and Matt discuss longer-term multifamily projects starting to appear, while Charles breaks down how Southern Pine strength has evolved. We’re seeing tight availability, trucks being chased after purchase, and the same quotes coming back days later — classic up-market signals that surprised many. How long does it last? Tune in to find out.

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Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg...

This episode of The Lumber Word is dedicated to Scott Adams, who passed away this week. One of the main reasons this podcast exists is because of his influence—his ability to cut through noise, challenge assumptions, and explain complex systems in a way that actually made sense. That mindset is at the core of what we try to do every week: make this podcast useful and give back to the lumber industry. Thanks, Scott.

Gregg, Matt, Ashley, and Charles circle up and jump right into North American species dynamics, with a quick (and well-earned) look back at...

Matt, Gregg, Ashley, and Charles kick off the New Year by breaking down the flow of lumber heading into 2026. From what different species are doing to why listeners of The Lumber Word tend to be a step ahead. The crew digs into market positioning, hedging misconceptions, and where real opportunity lies. If you want a few laughs and to be a smarter, better-prepared lumber trader in 2026, this episode is a must-listen.

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Alex Mead from StoneX joins Gregg, Matt, Ashley, and Charles for a milestone Episode 150 packed with market insight. The group breaks down current lumber conditions, why the new CME SYP lumber contract is positioned to grow in the coming years, and what the Commitment of Traders Report is signaling about the next move.

They discuss the wide spread between CME and spot lumber, how buyers across the supply chain are reacting, and whether being short into Q1 could be risky. Stick around to the end for early 2026 forecasts and a strong close from Matt, highlighting gratitude for...

Industry veteran Sig Thoma joins Gregg, Matt, and Ashley to break down a lumber market searching for direction. The crew digs into mill fixed costs, why curtailments are so tough, and where early green shoots may appear heading into 2026. They debate contracts vs. VMI for next year, highlight what sellers are doing, and share the items they’re buying—plus the risk strategies they’re using right now. A fast, insightful episode to help you trade smarter.

Guest: Sig Thoma / Industry veteran

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