5 in 5 with ANZ

US jobs growth is weaker than expected June, reducing market expectations the Fed will hike in September. South Korean inflation edges higher last month, and Australian building approvals are falling as builders face higher costs and higher interest rates.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh points to a switch in headwinds for Asia’s currencies from oil to the US dollar, now that markets see the Fed hiking this year.

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New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says inflation pressures have eased, which drives short term market rates down. The yen’s fall to 40-year lows adds to the Bank of Japan’s inflation challenge, and China’s economy was humming in June.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner previews next Wednesday’s rates decision by the RBNZ, where most expect a rate hike, but not all.

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The yen falls to a new 40-year low amid intervention fears. New Zealand business confidence surges right through June. The RBA issues hawkish minutes, and there are signs housing lending is slowing in Australia.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ FX Analyst Kausani Basak explains why the Philippines’ central bank, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas or BSP, will have to hike again.

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Oil prices are up, but stabilise after the US and Iran call off their strikes. The US dollar is near record highs vs the Yen, with the market on eggshells in case of intervention, and the NZ dollar is near six-month lows, but may be about to get some support.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Matt Galt explains why New Zealand’s housing market has been more resilient in recent months than expected, although there’s still uncertainty ahead.

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Oil is in focus in early Asian trade after Iran and the United States traded strikes over the weekend, endangering a truce to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. And the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is on hold after a week of reassuring data.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Asia Rates Strategist Jennifer Kusuma explains why ANZ Research has upgraded its GDP growth forecast for Asia in 2026 to 5% from 4.8%.

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Oil prices bounce from lows last seen in late February. US inflation data is soft enough to leave the Fed on hold. Australian jobs and spending data is weaker than headlines looked, also leaving the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on hold.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga steps back to assess the global economic outlook, now oil prices are back near pre-conflict levels.

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Oil prices fall another 4% as more tankers get out of the Persian Gulf. Australian inflation data sends mixed signals in May, which is keeping the RBA on alert for inflation. And Australia’s unemployment rate is forecast to fall, albeit slightly.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Geopolitical Risk Cameron Mitchell analyses the stuttering end to the Iran conflict.

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Tech stocks are down on AI over-valuation fears, while oil fell as more ships exit the Strait of Hormuz. Australian CPI figures today will be watched for second round inflation from March’s energy price pulse. Singaporean inflation is less than forecasts.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes analyses just how long it will take for oil supplies from the Persian Gulf to return to something like normal.

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UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announces his plan to resign. The market reaction is benign, on hopes his expected replacement, new Labour MP Andy Burnham, will run a tight budget. And the US dollar is on a roll against the yen.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh, sees the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) responding again to inflation pressures by tightening policy next month.

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Oil is in focus this morning after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. ANZ Research shifts its forecast for Fed rate cuts out to June 2027 from December. And Malaysian inflation is subdued.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga takes a wider look at a deal to end the Iran conflict, including why bond markets haven’t moved much, despite the deal.

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Oil falls and stocks rise again as a deal to re-open the Strait of Hormuz is signed. The Bank of England holds. Central banks in Indonesia and the Philippines hike. And New Zealand’s economy grows solidly in the March quarter.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur analyses India’s attempts to address a worsening balance of payments position and what they mean for the central bank.

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The Fed holds rates, but cuts look off the table as half of the rate-setters favour a hike this year. US Treasury yields rise and stocks are down. Meanwhile, New Zealand releases first quarter growth data today, with growth of about 1.0% expected.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk explains why ANZ Research has tuned down its Australian house price forecasts.

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Oil falls below $80 a barrel on expectations the Strait of Hormuz will open soon. The RBA holds rates at 4.35%, but keeps a hawkish tone. And the Bank of Japan hikes rates to a 31-year-high of … 1%.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari explains why gold prices haven’t traded as expected through the Middle East conflict.

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Stocks rally to new record highs and oil falls to almost $80 after the US and Iran confirm they’ll sign a deal on Friday to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold today, but the Bank of Japan is seen hiking.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga looks back and ahead at a swathe of central bank decisions, starting with the RBA today.

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Donald Trump says a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz will be signed later today, but Iran has yet to confirm it and new Israeli strikes in Lebanon have introduced more doubt. And India’s inflation rate rises.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh looks at how Asia equity portfolio outflows in May have continued into June.

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Oil prices fall 3% and US stocks bounce after Donald Trump calls off fresh air strikes on Iran, and says Iran’s leaders have approved an unspecified deal. And the European Central Bank hikes rates, as expected.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of Agribusiness Mark Bennett analyses the outlook for Australia’s beef and sheep sectors as winter sets in.

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Oil rises as Middle East worries grow, so US stocks are down. US core inflation shows higher energy prices are not flowing through to the economy. And China’s factory input prices jump on higher energy costs.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari highlights how nickel supply is being affected by tighter rules in Indonesia.

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Oil is down around 3%, although Middle East conflict and tech worries send stocks down. Australian price pressures fall in May. New Zealand manufacturing bounced in the March quarter. And Indonesia makes a surprise rate hike.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga analyses the significance of the AI boom to recent GDP growth globally.

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US stocks rebound overnight, but oil is slightly higher this morning after conflict between Iran and the US & Israel erupted again yesterday, although a cease fire is in place again now. And strong US jobs data shifts Federal Reserve rate expectations.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Asia Rates Strategist Jennifer Kusuma examines the slump in Indonesia’s rupiah to record lows in recent days.

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There’s more conflicting news from the Middle East, with ongoing fighting in Lebanon, but hope for a deal drags oil prices down. The yen is perched on its precipice of 160 to the US dollar. And the Reserve Bank of India may hike today to support the rupee.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh looks what what is behind the Korean won falling to its lowest level since 2009.

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Australian GDP growth slows as real household incomes drop, supporting ANZ Research’s view the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will stay on hold. And New Zealand building consents remain strong despite a market downturn.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Agribusiness Mark Bennett outlines how the Middle East conflict has affected key agricultural sector inputs.

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Australian GDP growth is set to ease in the March quarter, which could take further pressure off the RBA and the currency. House prices fell in May, while building approvals fell in April. And Korea’s inflation jumps.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur, looks at how the Philippines is dealing with its twin current account and budget deficits.

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Oil rises as much as 7% after Iran breaks off talks and the two sides fire at each other. The US summer driving season is set to drive up oil prices from July. China’s manufacturing and services sectors are expanding. And US factories are humming.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga takes a wider and longer look at the Australian economy’s place in the world, including physically.

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US stocks hit new record highs and oil prices fall on hope for an Iran peace deal. US consumer spending is soft, but data centre investment is strong. And New Zealand’s business and consumer confidence bounce.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Rates Strategist Jack Chambers analyses the rise of Kangaroo bond issuance from offshore borrowers.

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US inflation is cooler than expected. The New Zealand Government’s borrowing position is set to improve following yesterday’s budget. And in Australia, data centre investment jumps, while household spending starts to ease.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman dissects the New Zealand Government budget delivered yesterday, buoyed by a new set of Treasury forecasts.

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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand says hikes are coming sooner rather than later, sending the NZ dollar up. And Australia’s headline inflation undershoots in April, sending the Aussie dollar down.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Rates Strategist Jennifer Kusuma says Asian local currency bond markets have been resilient through the Middle East conflict. But there are rising inflation risks.

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Stocks and Brent oil are up this morning on see-sawing Middle East peace hopes. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is set to hold today, but for how long? And the Reserve Bank of Australia will be closely watching inflation data.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes has been tracking global oil inventories as the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, to get a sense of just how much is left.

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Oil prices fall 6.5% and bond yields drop on hopes a peace deal could re-open the Strait of Hormuz. The euro is weak as European factories slow down, and Singapore reports blockbuster GDP growth.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton assesses the potential impact of Federal Budget tax changes on Australia’s property market.

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There’s fresh uncertainty about the Iran conflict, with Donald Trump first saying a deal was ‘largely negotiated,’ but then that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remained and ‘there’s no rush for a deal’. And ANZ Research changes its Fed call.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani analyses UK jobs, price and growth data to get a sense of what the Bank of England may have to do next.

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Stocks spike and oil prices fall in late trade on hopes for an Iran peace deal. Factory activity slumps in Britain & Europe, but is solid in the US, and Australia’s jobs market softens, which may allow the RBA to hold rates.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari analyses some key shifts in the gold market.

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Oil falls and and stocks rise on Middle East peace hopes. Australia’s jobs data today will be closely watched by the RBA for weakness. And Bank Indonesia opts for a jumbo 50 basis point hike.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman says the Yen may not weaken much further from here, as long-dated Government bond yields rise and BoJ hikes come closer.

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The Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes indicate a wait-and-see approach following this month’s hike. Higher diesel prices squeeze New Zealand firm profit margins, and the Bank of Japan looks set to hike after stronger-than-expected Q1 growth.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains how the global data centre boom is helping Asia’s economies outside of China and India sail through the headwinds from the ‘liberation Day tariffs and Iran Conflict turmoil.

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China’s economic growth slows more than expected in April, but exports of gear for data centres from the likes of Singapore are going gangbusters. And that helped accelerate Thailand’s GDP growth rate too.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga sees the sustainability of Government borrowing at the heart of the sharp selloff in global bond markets in recent days.

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Oil prices are up again and global stocks start the week on the back foot after a selloff on global bond markets on Friday night, as investors worry about the longer term effects of the Iran conflict and political uncertainty on growth and inflation.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur, analyses the worsening of balance of payments deficits in the Philippines, India and Indonesia.

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Stocks rally to yet more record highs, despite another rise in oil prices, with hopes high that Presidents Trump and Xi can solve their trade and Iran conflict issues. US retail sales soften after the energy price shock. and NZ house prices fall.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim explains the strategic intent behind India signing a Free Trade Agreement with New Zealand.

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Donald Trump lands in China. Oil is down slightly and stocks are up. US producer price inflation is up as well. Australian home loans tumbled in March. And New Zealand inflation expectations rise.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Rates Strategist Jack Chambers reviews the Australian Government bond issuance programme announced following Tuesday night’s budget.

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Australia forecasts budget deficits for the next four years, but they’re better than expected as savings allow for higher spending. Oil prices rise 3% and stocks fall as concerns grow over the US-Iran ceasefire. And US inflation rises in April.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin says the US labour market remains structurally weak, keeping wage growth and inflation pressures down.

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Oil prices rise 3% after Donald Trump rejects Iran’s latest offer to restart talks. Australia’s Budget tonight will be watched for more cost of living relief for households. And inflation in China is higher than expected.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari examines just how exposed aluminium supply and prices are to the Middle East conflict, given 75% of production depends on imported alumina and bauxite.

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The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, but Iran has responded to a US offer to resume talks. US jobs figures were solid, leaving the Fed on hold as new Chair Kevin Warsh arrives. And China’s exports surge in April.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Raymond Yeung, looks in depth at a big improvement in profit margins in China so far this year.

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Oil prices fall on hopes for peace talks in the Middle East and stocks retreat from their record highs. Australia’s imports jump in March as data centre equipment and oil values rise. And the Aussie dollar is trading at its highest level since 2022.

In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman explains why the International Monetary Fund may be taking notice of Yen intervention.

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