Markets with Megan: A Quick Financial Markets Update

The U.S. economy added 165,000 jobs in October, more than double the 70,000 expected. But could this surprisingly strong employment report give the Federal Reserve another reason to raise interest rates in December?

In today's Markets with Megan, Verdence Capital Advisors CIO Megan Horneman breaks down the latest jobs report, including:

- 165,000 new jobs and an additional 84,000 from upward revisions
- Unemployment falling to 4.1%
- Labor force participation rising for the third consecutive month
- Wage growth moderating to 3.1%
- Why stronger employment could support another Fed rate hike
- How...

The Federal Reserve just received some surprisingly positive economic news. Weekly jobless claims fell to just 189,000, productivity surged 3.6%, and unit labor costs declined 0.7%. Could these numbers change the Fed's outlook heading into December?

In today's Markets with Megan, Verdence Capital Advisors CIO Megan Horneman breaks down three key economic indicators and what they could mean for inflation, the labor market, corporate profitability, and future interest rate decisions.

Megan also explores whether artificial intelligence investments are beginning to translate into measurable productivity gains—and why tomorrow's jobs report could be the next big test for the ec...

Job openings are beating unemployment again and the gap is not small. We just got September JOLTS data, and it shows 414,000 more job openings than unemployed workers, extending a six-month run where demand for workers stays ahead of supply. Even with the usual JOLTS lag, that kind of labor market strength can shift how we think about growth, risk appetite, and the path of interest rates.

We walk through the details that actually move expectations: job openings coming in above forecasts, the quits rate rising to its highest level since June 2025, and layoffs falling to the lowest...

The U.S. economy grew 3.4% in the third quarter, but beneath the strong headline number, inflation is accelerating and consumers are drawing down their savings. Is the Federal Reserve falling behind?

In this episode of Markets with Megan, Verdence Capital Advisors CIO Megan Horneman breaks down the latest GDP and inflation reports, including:

- 3.4% GDP growth: What's driving the economy's continued expansion?

- 3.1% core PCE inflation: Why the Fed's preferred inflation gauge is moving further from its 2% target.

- 3.8% personal savings rate: What declining household savings could mean for consumer spending.<...

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its October meeting, but with inflation continuing to climb, is the Fed doing enough?

In today's Markets with Megan, Verdence Capital Advisors CIO Megan Horneman breaks down the Fed's latest interest rate decision, the surprisingly restrained tone from the Fed Chairman, and why rising inflation could force more aggressive action in December.

With core PCE inflation expected to rise to 3.1%, Megan explains why the Fed may be falling behind in its fight against inflation, and why a 50-basis-point rate hike shouldn't be ruled out if inflation continues...

Housing data came in well below expectations this week. Housing starts fell 5.2% when markets expected an increase, and pending home sales dropped 7.3% to a record low. Megan Horneman, CIO of Verdence Capital Advisors, breaks down the numbers and what is driving the slowdown in the housing market.

Mortgage rates ended September at 7.3%, the highest in three years, and home builders are dealing with rising material costs and uncertainty from tariffs and supply disruptions. Housing is a small slice of GDP, but a slowdown can ripple into spending on things like furniture and electronics. Stocks rallied anyway, helped...

Inflation is heating up, consumer spending is showing signs of weakness, and the Federal Reserve faces another difficult decision. Could another interest rate hike be coming before the end of 2026?

Chief Investment Officer Megan Horneman discusses the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and retail sales report, and what they could mean for the economy, stock market, and Federal Reserve policy.

Find out:
- Why producer prices surged 1.3% in September, the fastest monthly increase since April 2023
- How rising energy prices and trade-related costs are fueling inflation
- Why...

The September ISM Services Report showed the service sector, where Americans spend most of their money, ending the third quarter on a softer note. Megan Horneman explains why business activity and new orders slipped while the prices paid component jumped to its highest level since July 2022.

Supply chain pressure tied to the war with Iran, along with tariffs and high fuel costs, is showing up in industries from construction to agriculture. Bond yields rose on the report, and the data likely won't change the Fed's October decision but does raise the odds of another hike in December.<...

The September jobs report came in much weaker than expected, and it could change the Federal Reserve’s next move.

The U.S. economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, while the prior two months were revised lower by roughly 60,000 jobs. Unemployment ticked up to 4.2%, labor force participation increased, and wage growth came in around 3% year over year.

So what does all of this mean for interest rates?

Megan Horneman shares the latest employment data, where jobs are being gained and lost, why Treasury yields are falling, and how the report could give the Fe...

The Fed is getting mixed signals.

This week’s economic data showed a cooling labor market, stubborn inflation, and renewed price pressures in manufacturing, all while the odds of an October rate hike have fallen sharply.

In this episode of Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman breaks down the latest JOLTS report, PCE inflation, ISM manufacturing data, and what they could mean for the Fed’s next move.

Could the Fed hold off until December? And what should investors be watching in tomorrow’s September jobs report?

Subscribe to Markets with Megan for qu...

AI-related capital spending continues to support the U.S. economy, and the latest durable goods report reveals surprising strength beneath the headline numbers. But could stronger economic growth give the Federal Reserve another reason to raise interest rates?

In today's Markets with Megan, Verdence Capital Advisors CIO Megan Horneman reviews August's durable goods orders, the surge in business investment, and what the latest economic data could mean for third-quarter GDP, inflation and the Fed's October meeting.

- Why aircraft orders weighed on the headline durable goods report.
- How underlying orders rose more than 1...

Retail sales just flipped the script: after a weak July, August comes in with a sharp rebound, and the details matter if you care about where the U.S. economy is headed. We walk through the August retail sales report and why a 1.2% monthly gain grabs market attention, especially with gasoline station sales up 3.1% and “core” spending measures also showing strength. If you’ve been wondering whether the consumer is finally cracking, this data argues the spending story is not over yet. 

We dig into the category-level moves that help explain the jump, including motor vehicles, furniture, electro...

Inflation came in hotter than expected, and the latest CPI report may have strengthened the case for a Fed rate hike next week.

In this episode of Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman dissects the latest inflation data, including rising energy costs, hotter core CPI, and continued pressure on American households. She also explains why markets are rallying even as the odds of a Fed hike rise, and what investors should be watching heading into next week’s Fed meeting.

Topics include:
• The latest CPI and core inflation numbers
• Why energy prices remain a major...

Inflation came in as expected. The problem? “As expected” is still too hot. The latest Producer Price Index showed inflation pressures continuing to build:

📈 Headline PPI: +5.4% year over year
📈 PPI excluding food, energy and trade: +4.7%
✈️ Airline prices: nearly +20% year over year
⚖️ Legal services: about +8%
🏥 Hospital inpatient care: +4.3%

Those details matter because several feed into the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge, and they’re not giving policymakers much reason to feel comfortable.

Markets are taking notice. The probability of a rate hike at next week’s Fed meeting has climbed to 72%, while the 1...

The August jobs report landed well above expectations, and it's the last one the Fed will see before its September meeting. The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs last month against a forecast of just 55,000, with construction, AI-related hiring, and government payrolls all contributing. Megan Horneman breaks down what a beat this size means for interest rate policy.

Wages grew three-tenths of a percent for the month, unemployment held at 4.1%, and the labor force added more than half a million workers. Markets are already reacting: equities slipped as traders priced in a 62% chance the Fed raises rates in...

The ISM Services Index ticked up in August, and the report's prices paid component jumped to its highest level since August 2022, back when the economy was still digging out of the post-pandemic inflation spike. Megan breaks down what's behind the rise in service sector activity and why the pricing data is worth watching heading into the Fed's next move.


In this episode, Megan covers:
🔹 Why the ISM Services Index rose in August and what's driving the strength
🔹 The prices paid component's jump to its highest level since August 2022
🔹 Business activity and new orders climbing...

Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh delivered a notably hawkish speech at this year's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, and it has real implications for where interest rates go next. Hear what he said about inflation, the labor market, and why the Fed isn't backing off even after a few better-than-expected readings this summer.

Inflation has stayed above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years, and Warsh made clear that "better than expected" doesn't mean "good enough." With more than half of the PCE basket still growing above 3%, and financial conditions loose rather than restrictive, the case for a...

The July PCE inflation report came in hotter than expected, with the Fed's preferred inflation gauge rising 0.2% month over month against a forecast of just 0.1%. Core PCE now sits at 3.3% year over year, unchanged from the prior month but still well above the Fed's 2% target. Megan breaks down what the data actually shows beneath the headlines.

This matters because the Fed chairman speaks at Jackson Hole this week, and markets are watching closely for any hint of tone on where rates go next. With services inflation still running hot and consumers leaning harder on savings and credit...

The Federal Reserve released the minutes from its July meeting, and Megan breaks down what they actually reveal about the committee's thinking heading into September. The minutes show risks to employment and growth skewed to the downside, while inflation risk is still seen as tilted to the upside, even with a general upbeat tone on the economy overall.

A few committee members already favored raising rates rather than waiting, a reminder of what happened in 2022 when the Fed had to move aggressively to catch up on inflation. Megan also covers why markets are rallying today, and it...

Today's data on the consumer wasn't good. July retail sales fell 0.3%, missing expectations for a 0.2% gain, following a decline the month before. Megan Horneman breaks down what's behind the pullback and why the control group number, which feeds directly into GDP, matters even more than the headline.

In this episode:

- Why July retail sales fell 0.3% instead of rising as expected
- What the control group reading tells us about GDP
- Why restaurant spending rose 0.5% even as other categories pulled back
- Consumer confidence's first drop in three months
...

July's Consumer Price Index is in, and markets are cheering. Headline CPI rose 0.1% for the month and 3.5% year-over-year, while core CPI came in at 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annually. Both numbers landed right where economists expected, and both ticked slightly lower than June. But as Megan explains, "as expected" isn't the same as "good news."

In this episode, Megan covers:

- Why July's in-line CPI report still isn't something to fully celebrate
- How service sector inflation reversed course and ticked back up to 0.2%
- Which categories, like airline fares and apparel, are still pushing...

The July NFIB Small Business Optimism Index just came in better than expected and it's now at its highest level since August 2025. Understand why this report matters, especially since small businesses make up nearly half of the private sector labor force.

Underneath the headline number, the details tell an interesting story. Job openings, hiring plans, and capital expenditure intentions all jumped, painting a different picture than what showed up in last week's jobs report. With the CPI report landing tomorrow, this data could shape how markets read the Fed's next move.

In this episode:
<...

The July jobs report landed with a surprise this morning, and it wasn't the good kind. Economists expected the U.S. economy to add 80,000 jobs. Instead, it lost 23,000, and the prior two months were revised lower. Megan breaks down what happened underneath that headline number and what it means for the Fed's next move.

Here's the part that confuses a lot of people: the unemployment rate actually fell to 4.1%, its lowest level in about a year, even as jobs disappeared. That's not necessarily good news. Megan explains why a shrinking labor force, not new hiring, is driving...

The July ISM Services report is in, and it's giving the Fed a mixed signal ahead of its September rate decision. Megan Horneman breaks down why the headline number came in slightly below expectations, what eased supply chain pressures actually tell us, and why the prices paid component just jumped back above 70 for the fourth time in five months.

At the same time, the employment component fell back into contraction territory, something it's now done in 12 of the past 18 months. That combination of rising prices and a softening labor market is exactly the kind of tension the...

June retail sales came in close to expectations, with headline growth slowing to 0.2% as gasoline station sales pulled the number down. But strip out food, energy and building materials, and the control group grew 0.5% on the month and is running at a 9.2% annualized pace over the past three months. Megan breaks down what that split actually tells us about the consumer.

In this episode, Megan covers:
📊 Why headline retail sales growth slowed to 0.2% in June
⛽ How falling gasoline station sales weighed on the overall number
💪 The control group's 0.5% monthly gain and 9.2% annualized pace
🚗 Strength in...

The Producer Price Index for June came in much better than expected, with the headline number falling 0.3% instead of holding flat, the biggest monthly decline since October 2023. So what drove the drop? How does it compare to yesterday's CPI report? Why does the softer core reading still leave the Fed with a decision to make?

This matters right now because the Fed is weighing whether to hold steady or move again in September, and this report cuts both ways. Energy prices did a lot of the work on the headline number, while core inflation is still stuck...

This week's June CPI report brought a surprise most analysts did not expect. Headline inflation fell 0.4% on a month over month basis, driven almost entirely by a sharp drop in energy and commodity prices. On a year over year basis, headline inflation is still running at 3.5%, but that's down meaningfully from 4.2% a year ago.

The timing matters. The Fed's new chairman is testifying before Congress this week, and his prepared remarks stayed hawkish on inflation even as this report showed real progress. Megan breaks down why cooler energy prices, calmer core inflation, and a still cautious Fed...

With markets hitting record highs and a tentative U.S.-Iran ceasefire in place, investors are sitting with a lot of open questions heading into the second half of 2026. In this episode, Megan Horneman works through the five questions she's hearing most from investors right now, from energy prices to Fed policy to what Q2 earnings season might reveal.

- What the U.S.-Iran interim ceasefire means for investors, and three key details still unresolved

- Why gas prices haven't kept pace with the 30% drop in crude oil, and when that relief may arrive<...

The Fed didn’t raise rates, but the meeting still packed a punch and markets felt it immediately. We break down the first decision under new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and why a “no change” outcome can still read as hawkish when the inflation outlook shifts and the Fed changes how it communicates. If you care about interest rates, inflation, bond yields, and what gets priced into markets next, this quick update is built for you. 

Megan Horneman digs into the biggest headline beneath the headline: higher projected core inflation in the years ahead, pushing the timelin...

The producer price index for May came in at a monthly gain of 0.8% when stripping out food, energy, and trade, the fastest pace at that level since 2022. On a year-over-year basis, producer prices are up 5.1%. Megan Horneman breaks down what the numbers actually mean and why they matter beyond the headlines.

In this episode, Megan covers:

- Why the core PPI reading of 0.8% month-over-month is the number that matters more than the headline
- Which components from PPI will filter into the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, PCE
- How portfolio management fees and...

Inflation moved higher again in May, and the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report shows prices are drifting further away from the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

In this episode of Markets with Megan, CIO Megan Horneman discusses the latest inflation data, including rising energy costs, sticky services inflation, higher food and travel prices, and why real wages have slipped back into negative territory. Megan also explains what this means for the Federal Reserve as a new Fed Chair prepares to take office next week.

📈 Topics covered:
• May CPI report breakdown
• Energy prices and inflation
• S...

Inflation pressures are continuing to build, consumers are feeling squeezed, and the Federal Reserve may be forced to stay higher for longer.

In today’s episode of Markets with Megan, Megan lays out a massive day of economic data covering housing, inflation, consumer spending, GDP, and what it all means for markets and interest rates.

🏠 Topics Megan Covers:
• New home sales fell sharply across most regions
• Median new home prices surged 8% in one month
• Core PCE inflation rose 3.3%, the highest since 2023
• Headline inflation climbed to 3.8% year-over-year
• Real disposable income fell for a third str...

The Federal Reserve's April meeting minutes, released today, show a committee growing more uncomfortable with inflation. The language shifted from "somewhat elevated" to simply "elevated," and three members pushed to signal that the next rate move could be a hike, not a cut.
This matters for anyone watching their portfolio right now. The market has already adjusted, pricing in one rate hike before the end of 2026. That is a sharp reversal from where expectations stood just a few months ago when the Fed was still talking about cuts.

In this episode, Megan covers:

• Why th...

April's retail sales report came in roughly as expected, but the headline number doesn't tell the whole story. Megan Horneman breaks down what the data actually shows, why the core control group figure matters more than the top line, and why some of that consumer spending may reflect higher prices rather than higher volume.

If you've been watching inflation reports closely, the retail sales data adds an important layer. Spending categories like electronics and restaurants look strong on paper, but both are also seeing price pressures tied to semiconductor supply chains and rising food costs. That context...

That CPI headline might look “close enough,” but when we slow down and read the report like investors do, it’s hard to call April a win. We walk through why a 0.6% monthly jump in headline inflation and a 0.4% rise in core inflation point to renewed price pressure, not a smooth glide back to normal. If you care about the stock market, bond yields, mortgage rates, or your grocery bill, this breakdown connects the dots from the Consumer Price Index to real world costs. 

We get specific about what’s driving the print: energy commodities surge, services inflation...

The U.S. job market is showing renewed momentum, with the economy adding 115,000 jobs and posting the strongest two-month stretch of job gains since 2024. But beneath the surface, there are still signs to watch — including weaker labor force participation, rising underemployment, and consumer confidence hitting another record low.

In this episode of Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman breaks down what the latest jobs report means for the economy, the consumer, inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s next move.

For a full history of the podcast, visit: https://marketswithmegan.fm

#MarketsWithMegan #JobsReport #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #Inte...

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, but the tone of today’s meeting was more hawkish than markets expected.

In this episode of Markets with Megan, Megan breaks down the latest Fed decision, the notable dissent within the committee, and why small wording changes in the Fed statement can have a big impact on markets. She also discusses rising energy prices, inflation concerns, higher bond yields, and why the path for rate cuts looks increasingly uncertain.

In this episode,:

• Why the Fed left rates unchanged
• The significance of multiple Fed dissenters
•...

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for April came in better than expected, and it tells a notably different story from last week's near-record-low University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading. Megan breaks down what the numbers actually show and why the gap between these two indexes matters for investors watching consumer health.
The most striking detail: optimism around job availability jumped to its highest point of the year, and that confidence filtered into forward-looking indicators on home buying, auto purchases, and income expectations. She also examines whether the Middle East ceasefire and a pullback in oil prices played...

The global economic outlook is starting to shift as the ongoing Middle East conflict and continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz raise concerns about slower growth and higher inflation.

In this episode of Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman takes a look at the latest economic downgrades from major global agencies, including the IMF, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, and Germany’s economic ministry. She explains why elevated energy prices, supply chain disruptions, and rising inflation pressures could create challenges for central banks and add volatility to markets.

In...

The U.S. consumer continues to show surprising strength. 

In today’s Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman breaks down the March retail sales report and explains why consumer spending came in much stronger than expected. Headline retail sales rose 1.7% in March, marking the biggest monthly increase in a year, while core measures also pointed to broad-based strength.

Megan walks through what was driving the spending, from gasoline and autos to more discretionary categories like furniture, electronics, dining out, and online shopping. She also explains why this report matters, what tax refunds may have contributed, and why...