Markets with Megan: A Quick Financial Markets Update

Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh delivered a notably hawkish speech at this year's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, and it has real implications for where interest rates go next. Hear what he said about inflation, the labor market, and why the Fed isn't backing off even after a few better-than-expected readings this summer.

Inflation has stayed above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years, and Warsh made clear that "better than expected" doesn't mean "good enough." With more than half of the PCE basket still growing above 3%, and financial conditions loose rather than restrictive, the case for a...

The July PCE inflation report came in hotter than expected, with the Fed's preferred inflation gauge rising 0.2% month over month against a forecast of just 0.1%. Core PCE now sits at 3.3% year over year, unchanged from the prior month but still well above the Fed's 2% target. Megan breaks down what the data actually shows beneath the headlines.

This matters because the Fed chairman speaks at Jackson Hole this week, and markets are watching closely for any hint of tone on where rates go next. With services inflation still running hot and consumers leaning harder on savings and credit...

The Federal Reserve released the minutes from its July meeting, and Megan breaks down what they actually reveal about the committee's thinking heading into September. The minutes show risks to employment and growth skewed to the downside, while inflation risk is still seen as tilted to the upside, even with a general upbeat tone on the economy overall.

A few committee members already favored raising rates rather than waiting, a reminder of what happened in 2022 when the Fed had to move aggressively to catch up on inflation. Megan also covers why markets are rallying today, and it...

Today's data on the consumer wasn't good. July retail sales fell 0.3%, missing expectations for a 0.2% gain, following a decline the month before. Megan Horneman breaks down what's behind the pullback and why the control group number, which feeds directly into GDP, matters even more than the headline.

In this episode:

- Why July retail sales fell 0.3% instead of rising as expected
- What the control group reading tells us about GDP
- Why restaurant spending rose 0.5% even as other categories pulled back
- Consumer confidence's first drop in three months
...

July's Consumer Price Index is in, and markets are cheering. Headline CPI rose 0.1% for the month and 3.5% year-over-year, while core CPI came in at 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annually. Both numbers landed right where economists expected, and both ticked slightly lower than June. But as Megan explains, "as expected" isn't the same as "good news."

In this episode, Megan covers:

- Why July's in-line CPI report still isn't something to fully celebrate
- How service sector inflation reversed course and ticked back up to 0.2%
- Which categories, like airline fares and apparel, are still pushing...

The July NFIB Small Business Optimism Index just came in better than expected and it's now at its highest level since August 2025. Understand why this report matters, especially since small businesses make up nearly half of the private sector labor force.

Underneath the headline number, the details tell an interesting story. Job openings, hiring plans, and capital expenditure intentions all jumped, painting a different picture than what showed up in last week's jobs report. With the CPI report landing tomorrow, this data could shape how markets read the Fed's next move.

In this episode:
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The July jobs report landed with a surprise this morning, and it wasn't the good kind. Economists expected the U.S. economy to add 80,000 jobs. Instead, it lost 23,000, and the prior two months were revised lower. Megan breaks down what happened underneath that headline number and what it means for the Fed's next move.

Here's the part that confuses a lot of people: the unemployment rate actually fell to 4.1%, its lowest level in about a year, even as jobs disappeared. That's not necessarily good news. Megan explains why a shrinking labor force, not new hiring, is driving...

The July ISM Services report is in, and it's giving the Fed a mixed signal ahead of its September rate decision. Megan Horneman breaks down why the headline number came in slightly below expectations, what eased supply chain pressures actually tell us, and why the prices paid component just jumped back above 70 for the fourth time in five months.

At the same time, the employment component fell back into contraction territory, something it's now done in 12 of the past 18 months. That combination of rising prices and a softening labor market is exactly the kind of tension the...

June retail sales came in close to expectations, with headline growth slowing to 0.2% as gasoline station sales pulled the number down. But strip out food, energy and building materials, and the control group grew 0.5% on the month and is running at a 9.2% annualized pace over the past three months. Megan breaks down what that split actually tells us about the consumer.

In this episode, Megan covers:
📊 Why headline retail sales growth slowed to 0.2% in June
⛽ How falling gasoline station sales weighed on the overall number
💪 The control group's 0.5% monthly gain and 9.2% annualized pace
🚗 Strength in...

The Producer Price Index for June came in much better than expected, with the headline number falling 0.3% instead of holding flat, the biggest monthly decline since October 2023. So what drove the drop? How does it compare to yesterday's CPI report? Why does the softer core reading still leave the Fed with a decision to make?

This matters right now because the Fed is weighing whether to hold steady or move again in September, and this report cuts both ways. Energy prices did a lot of the work on the headline number, while core inflation is still stuck...

This week's June CPI report brought a surprise most analysts did not expect. Headline inflation fell 0.4% on a month over month basis, driven almost entirely by a sharp drop in energy and commodity prices. On a year over year basis, headline inflation is still running at 3.5%, but that's down meaningfully from 4.2% a year ago.

The timing matters. The Fed's new chairman is testifying before Congress this week, and his prepared remarks stayed hawkish on inflation even as this report showed real progress. Megan breaks down why cooler energy prices, calmer core inflation, and a still cautious Fed...

With markets hitting record highs and a tentative U.S.-Iran ceasefire in place, investors are sitting with a lot of open questions heading into the second half of 2026. In this episode, Megan Horneman works through the five questions she's hearing most from investors right now, from energy prices to Fed policy to what Q2 earnings season might reveal.

- What the U.S.-Iran interim ceasefire means for investors, and three key details still unresolved

- Why gas prices haven't kept pace with the 30% drop in crude oil, and when that relief may arrive<...

The Fed didn’t raise rates, but the meeting still packed a punch and markets felt it immediately. We break down the first decision under new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and why a “no change” outcome can still read as hawkish when the inflation outlook shifts and the Fed changes how it communicates. If you care about interest rates, inflation, bond yields, and what gets priced into markets next, this quick update is built for you. 

Megan Horneman digs into the biggest headline beneath the headline: higher projected core inflation in the years ahead, pushing the timelin...

The producer price index for May came in at a monthly gain of 0.8% when stripping out food, energy, and trade, the fastest pace at that level since 2022. On a year-over-year basis, producer prices are up 5.1%. Megan Horneman breaks down what the numbers actually mean and why they matter beyond the headlines.

In this episode, Megan covers:

- Why the core PPI reading of 0.8% month-over-month is the number that matters more than the headline
- Which components from PPI will filter into the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, PCE
- How portfolio management fees and...

Inflation moved higher again in May, and the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report shows prices are drifting further away from the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

In this episode of Markets with Megan, CIO Megan Horneman discusses the latest inflation data, including rising energy costs, sticky services inflation, higher food and travel prices, and why real wages have slipped back into negative territory. Megan also explains what this means for the Federal Reserve as a new Fed Chair prepares to take office next week.

📈 Topics covered:
• May CPI report breakdown
• Energy prices and inflation
• S...

Inflation pressures are continuing to build, consumers are feeling squeezed, and the Federal Reserve may be forced to stay higher for longer.

In today’s episode of Markets with Megan, Megan lays out a massive day of economic data covering housing, inflation, consumer spending, GDP, and what it all means for markets and interest rates.

🏠 Topics Megan Covers:
• New home sales fell sharply across most regions
• Median new home prices surged 8% in one month
• Core PCE inflation rose 3.3%, the highest since 2023
• Headline inflation climbed to 3.8% year-over-year
• Real disposable income fell for a third str...

The Federal Reserve's April meeting minutes, released today, show a committee growing more uncomfortable with inflation. The language shifted from "somewhat elevated" to simply "elevated," and three members pushed to signal that the next rate move could be a hike, not a cut.
This matters for anyone watching their portfolio right now. The market has already adjusted, pricing in one rate hike before the end of 2026. That is a sharp reversal from where expectations stood just a few months ago when the Fed was still talking about cuts.

In this episode, Megan covers:

• Why th...

April's retail sales report came in roughly as expected, but the headline number doesn't tell the whole story. Megan Horneman breaks down what the data actually shows, why the core control group figure matters more than the top line, and why some of that consumer spending may reflect higher prices rather than higher volume.

If you've been watching inflation reports closely, the retail sales data adds an important layer. Spending categories like electronics and restaurants look strong on paper, but both are also seeing price pressures tied to semiconductor supply chains and rising food costs. That context...

That CPI headline might look “close enough,” but when we slow down and read the report like investors do, it’s hard to call April a win. We walk through why a 0.6% monthly jump in headline inflation and a 0.4% rise in core inflation point to renewed price pressure, not a smooth glide back to normal. If you care about the stock market, bond yields, mortgage rates, or your grocery bill, this breakdown connects the dots from the Consumer Price Index to real world costs. 

We get specific about what’s driving the print: energy commodities surge, services inflation...

The U.S. job market is showing renewed momentum, with the economy adding 115,000 jobs and posting the strongest two-month stretch of job gains since 2024. But beneath the surface, there are still signs to watch — including weaker labor force participation, rising underemployment, and consumer confidence hitting another record low.

In this episode of Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman breaks down what the latest jobs report means for the economy, the consumer, inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s next move.

For a full history of the podcast, visit: https://marketswithmegan.fm

#MarketsWithMegan #JobsReport #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #Inte...

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, but the tone of today’s meeting was more hawkish than markets expected.

In this episode of Markets with Megan, Megan breaks down the latest Fed decision, the notable dissent within the committee, and why small wording changes in the Fed statement can have a big impact on markets. She also discusses rising energy prices, inflation concerns, higher bond yields, and why the path for rate cuts looks increasingly uncertain.

In this episode,:

• Why the Fed left rates unchanged
• The significance of multiple Fed dissenters
•...

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for April came in better than expected, and it tells a notably different story from last week's near-record-low University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading. Megan breaks down what the numbers actually show and why the gap between these two indexes matters for investors watching consumer health.
The most striking detail: optimism around job availability jumped to its highest point of the year, and that confidence filtered into forward-looking indicators on home buying, auto purchases, and income expectations. She also examines whether the Middle East ceasefire and a pullback in oil prices played...

The global economic outlook is starting to shift as the ongoing Middle East conflict and continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz raise concerns about slower growth and higher inflation.

In this episode of Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman takes a look at the latest economic downgrades from major global agencies, including the IMF, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, and Germany’s economic ministry. She explains why elevated energy prices, supply chain disruptions, and rising inflation pressures could create challenges for central banks and add volatility to markets.

In...

The U.S. consumer continues to show surprising strength. 

In today’s Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman breaks down the March retail sales report and explains why consumer spending came in much stronger than expected. Headline retail sales rose 1.7% in March, marking the biggest monthly increase in a year, while core measures also pointed to broad-based strength.

Megan walks through what was driving the spending, from gasoline and autos to more discretionary categories like furniture, electronics, dining out, and online shopping. She also explains why this report matters, what tax refunds may have contributed, and why...

A geopolitical shock doesn’t stay on the map, it shows up in the data. Today we walk through fresh manufacturing and business activity numbers that hint the war with Iran is starting to ripple into the US economy, especially through supply chain disruptions and rising input costs. If you track markets, inflation, or economic growth, these small releases can be the early signal before bigger indicators catch up. 

We start with industrial production, which comes in weaker than expected with a 5.5% monthly decline. The detail matters: autos take the biggest hit, a classic sign of parts del...

The housing market is starting to show signs of stress again.

In today’s Markets with Megan, Verdenec CIO Megan Horneman dissects the latest housing data and explains how rising mortgage rates, higher material costs, and Middle East conflict concerns are beginning to weigh on both builders and buyers.

Get insights on:

• The sharp drop in home builder confidence in April
• Why mortgage rates have climbed to a seven-month high
• How supply chain concerns are pushing up building material costs
• Why existing home sales fell to a nine-month low
• What rising...

Was inflation already becoming a bigger problem before the war with Iran? In today’s Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman breaks down the latest personal income, spending, and core PCE inflation data to show what the economy looked like before the latest geopolitical shock hit energy markets.

The takeaway: inflation was already proving sticky, and consumers were already feeling the squeeze.

In this episode, Megan covers:

Why real personal spending has been muted for months
What falling income and a lower savings rate may signal for the consumer
Why core PCE re...

Markets surged on April 8 as investors reacted to news of a temporary two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. Oil prices plunged, yields moved lower, and inflation expectations eased — fueling a powerful relief rally in equities.

In this episode of Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman explains what’s really driving the move and why caution is still warranted. While the market is celebrating a pause in tensions, the details of the ceasefire remain unclear, the Strait of Hormuz situation is still highly fluid, and broader geopolitical risks have not disappeared.

Megan breaks down:

...

We’re starting to see economic data reflect the impact of the war with Iran.

In today’s Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman gives insight into how March data is beginning to show signs of supply chain stress, rising inflation pressure, and growing market uncertainty.

She explains why investors are focused not only on oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz, but also on other critical goods like helium, fertilizer inputs, and aluminum. Megan also covers what showed up in the latest ISM Manufacturing and Services reports, why this week’s Fed minutes and CPI report...

The first quarter of 2026 was a difficult one for investors.

In this episode of Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman recaps a volatile start to the year as markets reacted to war in the Middle East, surging energy prices, private credit fears, rising inflation expectations, and hawkish central bank rhetoric. She also explains why stocks rebounded at the very end of the quarter—and why caution may still be warranted from here.

In this episode:
- Why global markets struggled in Q1
- What drove the correction in U.S. equities
- How en...

The latest economic data showed two relative bright spots in the economy: consumer spending and manufacturing.

In this episode of Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman breaks down stronger-than-expected February retail sales, improving March ISM manufacturing data, and why inflation pressures may still keep the Federal Reserve on hold.

Watch for insights on:
- Consumer spending trends
- Core retail sales
- Discretionary spending
- Manufacturing momentum
- Supply chain concerns
- Inflation risk
- Fed outlook

For more episodes, visit: https://marketswithmegan.fm

#MarketsWithMegan...

Markets are reacting to another shift in labor market data, as signs of weakening demand for workers begin to emerge.

In this episode of Markets with Megan, Verdence CIO Megan Horneman breaks down the latest JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) report, which showed a sharp decline in job openings, the largest drop in 17 months. The data signals a cooling labor market, with 358,000 fewer openings and nearly 700,000 more unemployed Americans than available jobs.

Megan walks through what’s changing beneath the surface, including a drop in hiring rates to levels not seen since 2020 and a...

Markets closed out the week under pressure as weakening consumer sentiment added another layer of concern to an already volatile environment.

In this episode of Markets with Megan, Verdence CIO Megan Horneman breaks down the latest University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey, which showed confidence falling to a three-month low. Both current conditions and future expectations declined, with forward-looking sentiment seeing its largest drop in nearly a year.

At the same time, inflation expectations jumped sharply, with consumers now anticipating 3.8% inflation over the next...