Total Money Management

Every week someone tells you where house prices will bottom or what a stock is worth. This week Steve and Jacob ask where those numbers actually come from.

They start with the Jensen Huang story and what it could mean for Nvidia, AI and the push for regulation. Then it’s back to Aussie property: 25 years of credit growing at about 7% a year while the economy grew at about 3%, and why lending, not population, has driven prices.

The main segment is on models. Change one input in thirty and a $64 valuation becomes $51. Engineers build in a...

Episode 160 comes to you from another undisclosed location (air conditioned this time, so less sweat).

Steve and Jacob make a public commitment: the TMM book is coming. Working title, Financial Fibs. It pulls together what Steve has learnt over 26 years of investing, what the finance industry tells you, and what the evidence actually shows.

They walk through the big themes: why “you can’t time the market” doesn’t hold up when you look at valuations, the gap between the 8 to 10% returns you’re promised and what most investors really compound, why the stock market isn’t the...

Steve and Jacob on a gloomier IMF, Brazil’s election sell-off, who really gets paid when rates rise, why starting valuations matter most, and a listener question on Indonesia. Join Signals & Noise free: totalmoneymanagement.com.au/newsletters/the-signals-noise-newsletter

This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642

It's a rainy Thursday and the world's still on fire. Steve and Jacob start with the mood out there: two wars joining up, a US midterm only days away, and why leaders like Hawke, Reagan and Howard shaped how people coped in tough times. Steve also touches on the Enneagram Type 8 leadership style. If you want to find out your own investor personality type, take the assessment here: totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Enneagram-types

From there it's markets. Indonesia has been thrown out of the Morgan Stanley emerging markets index and is down around 20% in a few weeks, after...

Steve and Tom are flying without Jacob this week, covering the week ending 16 October 2026.

They open with the French supermarket chain whose freezers went from minus five to fifty degrees, blamed on a cyber attack and actually caused by software nobody bothered to update, then the Norwegian army’s Hertz hire cars and what the data trail says about how little of modern life we actually control. From there: French borrowing costs at their highest since 2002 with debt near 300 percent of GDP and no eurozone bailout coming, why Australia’s government debt is among the lowest in the...

Reports of a plague in Russia, Europe and China in a trade standoff, and the Middle East pulling in more players. Then the question we get most: how do you invest when the CAPE is 42? Steve, Tom and Jacob look at Australia's recession risk, government deficits and falling Gold Coast rents. They finish on timeframe, volatility and action, and why buy and hold is not the only way to be long term.In this episode:Reports of a pneumonic plague outbreak in Russia, and France in the headlines againEurope asking China to cut car exports, and what comes nextThe...

Reports of a plague in Russia, Europe and China in a trade standoff, and the Middle East pulling in more players. Then the question we get most: how do you invest when the CAPE is 42? Steve, Tom and Jacob look at Australia's recession risk, government deficits and falling Gold Coast rents. They finish on timeframe, volatility and action, and why buy and hold is not the only way to be long term.

In this episode:

The RBA has raised rates again, property owners are weighing whether to sell, and a listener is rebalancing heifers. Against that backdrop, Jacob and Steve go through a risk hierarchy special.

They start with how the industry defines risk (volatility and age-based risk tolerance) and ask whether that definition holds up. From there they work through Bessembinder's research: a tiny share of US stocks has created most of the wealth since 1926, and the odds of consistently picking those winners are very low. They also cover ergodicity and Nassim Taleb's casino example, why a 50% loss needs a 100% gain...

Is Australia exposed to a diesel supply shock? Why does Greenland matter to the US military? And are AI companies actually making money? In this week's Signals & Noise (week ending 25 September), we cover the Donroe Doctrine, oil price swings and Strait of Hormuz rumours, rising memory chip costs, and why the AI business model faces a compute problem.

We also look at why markets spend roughly 75% of the time in a drawdown, what that means for cash and rebalancing, and why the S&P 500 is close to setting the longest secular bull market on record on 20 October.<...

Gold Coast broker Joel from Sunshine Finance joins Steve and Jacob to talk about the risks he sees on the lending front line, from property developments to private credit offers promising big returns.

Joel comes from a construction background and says no before he says yes. He explains why commercial and asset finance rates move differently to home loans, why property development is riskier than it looks, and why any promised return needs a hard look at where it actually comes from. He also covers inflated loan applications, dealer finance where the repayments don't match the advertised...

Masterclass link: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Webinar-Anti-Fragile

25 years since 9/11, and the Middle East is heating up again. Steve and Jacob break down the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, Iran's economic squeeze, and oil pushing toward $100 a barrel, then dig into why avoiding big drawdowns matters more than chasing the top, with CAPE sitting at 42 and Taleb's black swan lens applied to markets.

Free live masterclass, How to Build an Antifragile Portfolio, Wed 30 Sept, 7pm AEST. Link in bio.

Total Money Management, AFSL 568642. General information and education only, not financial advice. Does not...

FREE WEBINAR LINK:

https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Webinar-Anti-Fragile?cid=7c7b1153-bccd-4fad-aef2-c3812804fe4a

This week Steve, Tom and Jacob open with three headlines that are more connected than they look: Iran calling for resolution under the weight of sanctions and inflation, the link between immigration and wage suppression in Australia, and house prices falling across every capital city except Darwin.

The CoreLogic numbers for August tell the story. Sydney down 4.7% for the quarter, Melbourne down 3.9%, and commentators now calling for falls of 10%. The quarterly picture is negative almost everywhere...

150 episodes. Over three years of cutting through the noise together. To mark it, Steve, Tom and Jacob run through this week's biggest stories: new US sanctions on Iran and what they mean for oil, why Australia's fuel security is more fragile than the export numbers suggest, the real story behind US bond yields, and the US-Canada tariff standoff.

They also dig into why private credit keeps making headlines and what a major builder collapse says about the sector.

Then it's Watch Your Edge: why the stock market is such an expensive place to find out...

This week Steve, Jacob and Tom cover the shifting global order, why America is pulling back from being the world's policeman, and what that means for trade, tariffs and geopolitics. They also break down new bank lending data out of China, the risks building up in private credit and AI infrastructure financing, and why they remain cautious on the sector despite the hype.

Closer to home, the guys dig into the Australian property market: why investor loans have dried up, what the end of negative gearing incentives on new builds really means, and why immigration is a...

Part 2 of the Anti-Fragile Investor. Steve Moriarty and Jacob Senior move from theory to practice, walking through Taleb's six operational principles, the barbell strategy, and why volatility drag makes one bad year worse than most investors realise. With CAPE at 42.5, the goal isn't to predict the next crash, it's to build a portfolio that benefits when one arrives.

Companion paper:
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Oil is swinging wildly as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalate and Trump pushes for a deal. A $116 million crypto hack just hit cold storage wallets across 5,200 addresses. And a 25 year old "genius" fund manager just got wiped out after leveraging 40x into AI stocks, a case study in exactly what Buffett warned about decades ago.

This week Steve, Tom and Jacob break down what's actually moving markets, why leverage is the fastest way to turn a good thesis into a bad outcome, and the real maths behind compounding your money (spoiler: it's slower than you...

Markets can go sideways for ten or fifteen years. The CAPE ratio sits at 42. Global debt is stretched, and retail investors are piling into property, Bitcoin, and leveraged ETFs. So what happens next, and how do you position for it?

In this special two-part episode, Steve Moriarty and Jacob Senior lay out an investment philosophy built to work through the entire market cycle, not just the good years. Drawing on Nassim Taleb's Incerto, the Kelly Criterion, and the risk-first thinking of investors like Ed Thorpe, Steve explains what separates fragile portfolios from robust ones...

Oil just jumped 20% in a fortnight, the US market is priced for perfection, and Australian property looks like it has finally rolled over. Red flags are everywhere.

Steve, Tom and Jacob run through the week that was: the broken ceasefire and the race toward nuclear, a market sitting 200% above trend with Buffett quietly selling, the private credit boom regulators are now worried about, and why 25 years of property gains may be ending. Then the part most people skip: how to keep your head when markets turn, using System 1 and System 2 thinking, a written plan, and a longer...

Steve, Tom and Jacob are back (with working microphones this time) to unpack a week where the cracks got harder to ignore.

The Iran ceasefire has collapsed, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is running at a third of normal, and shipping insurance costs have jumped sevenfold. The lads explain why "oil" isn't one thing, why China's demand drop saved us last time, and why a genuine supply shock may still be creeping up on us.

Then it's over to Korea, where the stock market swung wildly all week and the CAPE ratio has...

Episode 143: A TMM Monologue

The ceasefire didn't hold, and neither did the calm. This week Steve flies solo (audio only) with a look at what the renewed Iran-US conflict means for oil, helium and fertiliser supply, and why the uncertainty premium is back in commodity markets.

Also in this episode:

Debt is piling up on both sides of the ledger: margin lending, leveraged ETFs and an options boom, all while the CAPE sits at 42, four and a half standard deviations above trend. Steve explains why that combination calls for caution, not prediction.

Buffett said if you can't manage your emotions, you can't manage your money. This week we prove him right. Steve, Tom and Jacob break down Howard Marks' Mastering the Market Cycle: the three stages of every boom and bust, why the CAPE at 42 stacks the odds against US stocks, and why you never need to pick the bottom.

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Join Steve Moriarty, Tom Hill, and Jacob Senior as they unpack the world of investing—from market moves and strategies to timeless principles and everyday money wins. Whether you’re just starting out or deep into your investing journey, we’re here to educate, challenge, and inspire.


🚫 Disclaimer: This podcast is provided by Total Money Management Pty Ltd (AFSL 568642) for educational purposes only. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider whether the information is appropriate for you and seek independent advice before acting. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future...

Join Steve Moriarty, Tom Hill, and Jacob Senior as they unpack the world of investing—from market moves and strategies to timeless principles and everyday money wins. Whether you’re just starting out or deep into your investing journey, we’re here to educate, challenge, and inspire. 🚫 Disclaimer: This podcast is provided by Total Money Management Pty Ltd (AFSL 568642) for educational purposes only. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider whether the information is appropriate for you and seek independent advice before acting. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.Subscribe...

Join Steve Moriarty, Tom Hill, and Jacob Senior as they unpack the world of investing—from market moves and strategies to timeless principles and everyday money wins. Whether you’re just starting out or deep into your investing journey, we’re here to educate, challenge, and inspire. 🚫 Disclaimer: This podcast is provided by Total Money Management Pty Ltd (AFSL 568642) for educational purposes only. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider whether the information is appropriate for you and seek independent advice before acting. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.Subscribe...

Join Steve Moriarty, Tom Hill, and Jacob Senior as they unpack the world of investing—from market moves and strategies to timeless principles and everyday money wins. Whether you’re just starting out or deep into your investing journey, we’re here to educate, challenge, and inspire. 🚫 Disclaimer: This podcast is provided by Total Money Management Pty Ltd (AFSL 568642) for educational purposes only. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider whether the information is appropriate for you and seek independent advice before acting. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.Subscribe...

Join Steve Moriarty, Tom Hill, and Jacob Senior as they unpack the world of investing—from market moves and strategies to timeless principles and everyday money wins. Whether you’re just starting out or deep into your investing journey, we’re here to educate, challenge, and inspire. 🚫 Disclaimer: This podcast is provided by Total Money Management Pty Ltd (AFSL 568642) for educational purposes only. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider whether the information is appropriate for you and seek independent advice before acting. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.Subscribe...

Join Steve Moriarty, Tom Hill, and Jacob Senior as they unpack the world of investing—from market moves and strategies to timeless principles and everyday money wins. Whether you’re just starting out or deep into your investing journey, we’re here to educate, challenge, and inspire. 🚫 Disclaimer: This podcast is provided by Total Money Management Pty Ltd (AFSL 568642) for educational purposes only. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider whether the information is appropriate for you and seek independent advice before acting. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.Subscribe...

Join Steve Moriarty, Tom Hill, and Jacob Senior as they unpack the world of investing—from market moves and strategies to timeless principles and everyday money wins. Whether you’re just starting out or deep into your investing journey, we’re here to educate, challenge, and inspire. 🚫 Disclaimer: This podcast is provided by Total Money Management Pty Ltd (AFSL 568642) for educational purposes only. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider whether the information is appropriate for you and seek independent advice before acting. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.Subscribe...

Join Steve Moriarty, Tom Hill, and Jacob Senior as they unpack the world of investing—from market moves and strategies to timeless principles and everyday money wins. Whether you’re just starting out or deep into your investing journey, we’re here to educate, challenge, and inspire. 🚫 Disclaimer: This podcast is provided by Total Money Management Pty Ltd (AFSL 568642) for educational purposes only. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider whether the information is appropriate for you and seek independent advice before acting. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.Subscribe...

Join Steve Moriarty, Tom Hill, and Jacob Senior as they unpack the world of investing—from market moves and strategies to timeless principles and everyday money wins. Whether you’re just starting out or deep into your investing journey, we’re here to educate, challenge, and inspire.

🚫 Disclaimer: This podcast is provided by Total Money Management Pty Ltd (AFSL 568642) for educational purposes only. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider whether the information is appropriate for you and seek independent advice before acting. Past performance is not a...

Join Steve Moriarty, Tom Hill, and Jacob Senior as they unpack the world of investing—from market moves and strategies to timeless principles and everyday money wins. Whether you’re just starting out or deep into your investing journey, we’re here to educate, challenge, and inspire. 🚫 Disclaimer: This podcast is provided by Total Money Management Pty Ltd (AFSL 568642) for educational purposes only. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider whether the information is appropriate for you and seek independent advice before acting. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.Subscribe...

Join Steve Moriarty, Tom Hill, and Jacob Senior as they unpack the world of investing—from market moves and strategies to timeless principles and everyday money wins. Whether you’re just starting out or deep into your investing journey, we’re here to educate, challenge, and inspire. 🚫 Disclaimer: This podcast is provided by Total Money Management Pty Ltd (AFSL 568642) for educational purposes only. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider whether the information is appropriate for you and seek independent advice before acting. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.Subscribe...

Most investors do not have an information problem. They have a decision-making problem.

Every week, Steve Moriarty, Tom Hill, and Jacob Senior from Total Money Management help you cut through the noise and think more clearly about markets, money, risk, and long-term investing.

This is not a podcast about chasing hot tips, reacting to headlines, or pretending anyone can predict the future.

It is about building a better investing framework.

We cover market cycles, valuation, portfolio structure, investor behaviour...

Most investors do not have an information problem. They have a decision-making problem.

Every week, Steve Moriarty, Tom Hill, and Jacob Senior from Total Money Management help you cut through the noise and think more clearly about markets, money, risk, and long-term investing.

This is not a podcast about chasing hot tips, reacting to headlines, or pretending anyone can predict the future.

It is about building a better investing framework.

We cover market cycles, valuation, portfolio structure, investor behaviour...

Most investors do not have an information problem. They have a decision-making problem.

Every week, Steve Moriarty, Tom Hill, and Jacob Senior from Total Money Management help you cut through the noise and think more clearly about markets, money, risk, and long-term investing.

This is not a podcast about chasing hot tips, reacting to headlines, or pretending anyone can predict the future.

It is about building a better investing framework.

We cover market cycles, valuation, portfolio structure, investor behaviour...

Most investors do not have an information problem. They have a decision-making problem.

Every week, Steve Moriarty, Tom Hill, and Jacob Senior from Total Money Management help you cut through the noise and think more clearly about markets, money, risk, and long-term investing.

This is not a podcast about chasing hot tips, reacting to headlines, or pretending anyone can predict the future.

It is about building a better investing framework.

We cover market cycles, valuation, portfolio structure, investor behaviour...

Join Steve Moriarty, Tom Hill, and Jacob Senior as they unpack the world of investing—from market moves and strategies to timeless principles and everyday money wins. Whether you’re just starting out or deep into your investing journey, we’re here to educate, challenge, and inspire. 🚫 Disclaimer: This podcast is provided by Total Money Management Pty Ltd (AFSL 568642) for educational purposes only. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider whether the information is appropriate for you and seek independent advice before acting. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.Subscribe...

Join Steve Moriarty, Tom Hill, and Jacob Senior as they unpack the world of investing—from market moves and strategies to timeless principles and everyday money wins. Whether you’re just starting out or deep into your investing journey, we’re here to educate, challenge, and inspire.

🚫 Disclaimer: This podcast is provided by Total Money Management Pty Ltd (AFSL 568642) for educational purposes only. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider whether the information is appropriate for you and seek independent advice before acting. Past performance is not a reliable...

Join Steve Moriarty, Tom Hill, and Jacob Senior as they unpack the world of investing—from market moves and strategies to timeless principles and everyday money wins. Whether you’re just starting out or deep into your investing journey, we’re here to educate, challenge, and inspire.

🚫 Disclaimer: This podcast is provided by Total Money Management Pty Ltd (AFSL 568642) for educational purposes only. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider whether the information is appropriate for you and seek independent advice before acting. Past performance is not a reliable...

Join Steve Moriarty, Tom Hill, and Jacob Senior as they unpack the world of investing—from market moves and strategies to timeless principles and everyday money wins. Whether you’re just starting out or deep into your investing journey, we’re here to educate, challenge, and inspire. 🚫 Disclaimer: This podcast is provided by Total Money Management Pty Ltd (AFSL 568642) for educational purposes only. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider whether the information is appropriate for you and seek independent advice before acting. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.Subscribe...