Cheap Talk
Cheap Talk is an every-week-or-so international relations podcast with Jeff Kaplow and Marcus Holmes, professors of government at William & Mary.
We're the Chimpanzees
Ben Harack joins Cheap Talk to talk about AI risk and governance; power shifts caused by AI; translating AI into a power advantage; technical means to verify limits on AI; the problem of dark compute; prospects for a political deal to cooperatively limit AI development; the US compute advantage over China; predictions for AI existential risk; and Marcus thought this would be all doom and gloom
Ben Harack is co-founder and Research Lead at the Oxford Hardware AI Governance Lab.
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the...
Deemed Persona Non Grata
Ukraine access to Starshield is at least temporarily restored; Austria expels suspected Russian spies; the rational calculus of declaring someone persona non grata; rationalists love espionage; and Marcus likes the show The Americans but thinks the Mission: Impossible movies have gone downhill
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.
Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.
We have new items in the online...
There's Something Different About Them
New items in the Cheap Talk shop, including a Mathpocalypse t-shirt and AI sticker packs; placing blame about Ukraine’s access to Starshield; whether polling is damaging to the public discourse; what the polls tell us about the midterm elections; how the polls could be wrong; the role of international relations in the upcoming elections; the limited leverage of Democrats on US foreign policy even if they win; and Marcus enjoys voting
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.
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Weeping for the Mathematicians
A series of unfortunate events in the Russia/Ukraine conflict; the effect of domestic politics on US assistance to Ukraine; the ability of Europe to provide intelligence and battlefield internet access; mathpocalypse and implications for cryptography and cybersecurity; how AI is shifting the offense/defense balance in cryptography; and Marcus is scared to open his new book
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.
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Envoys of Friendship
AI agents are like middle schoolers; assessing progress from the Trump/Xi summit; combatting the security dilemma with summitry; creating new communication channels for AI incidents; panda diplomacy and overplaying one’s panda hand; some small movements toward AI governance; why AI resorts to deception; and Marcus is a summit optimist
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.
Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.
...Humans Make Mistakes Too
A big week for face-to-face diplomacy; the UN as a safe forum for high-level visits; the importance of side-meetings outside the General Assembly Hall; another Trump-Zelensky meeting; the logic of a post-election deal with Iran; China’s summit strategy; resolving the Greenland Crisis of 2025-2026; whether AI really almost caused a war with China; and Marcus supports hotline proliferation
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.
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The Lingo of Our AI Tech Overlords
The public debate over AI and the end of humanity; proposals to slow down AI development and improve safety; the challenges of coordinating domestically and internationally; normal accident theory and the nuclear safety analogy to AI; positive and negative controls and the always/never dilemma; predictions for the end of humanity; and Marcus wonders whether aliens have AI and how that went for them
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.
Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or...
Not Routine at All
The international security implications of the Hugging Face hack; rogue AI agents and cyberattack attribution; competing explanations for the CIA Director’s recent visit to Moscow; signaling to various audiences; worries about Russia expanding the Ukraine conflict into NATO; US domestic politics and the state of the Iran war; and Marcus has really enjoyed the US Open
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.
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This Could Result in an International Incident
The fascinating story of OpenAI’s rogue models and the HuggingFace hacking incident; turning a mirror on our humanity; the natural inclination to cooperate and communicate; models sacrificing themselves for the greater good; models cheating on their benchmarks and the temptation to cover their tracks; conspiracy theories and misinformation in the world of AI models; and Marcus is tempted to go into the app development space
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.
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Twice as Popular as Taylor Swift
Remembering Dolly Parton, global icon; US military capacity and the readiness costs of extended deployments in the Iran conflict; the US-Saudi Arabia nuclear cooperation agreement is submitted to Congress; developments in the trade war with Canada; spillover between economic statecraft and security policy; and Marcus thinks Jolene is a good tune
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.
Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.<...
All of This Has Been Done
Cheap Talk’s triumphant return for season 7: Our favorite international news stories of the summer; cutting short military exercises with South Korea; AI models hacking their way out of sandboxes; a new military alliance in the Gulf; the US/Saudi Arabia nuclear cooperation agreement; President Trump’s escape from Turkey in a catering truck; studying IR in turbulent times; and Marcus reminisces about going to Blockbuster Video
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.
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Other Forms of Dust
Cheap Talk ends season 6 with listener questions: Control of the Strait of Hormuz; an arrest for trading on classified information on Polymarket; Thucydides and parallels to current US foreign policy; does face-to-face diplomacy build trust or generate more information; teaching tomorrow’s foreign policy leaders in the age of AI; did Hans Neimann cheat; dust as a metaphor in IR; and Marcus doesn’t see the resemblance
We’ll be podcasting less regularly over the summer, but we’ll be back to our usual weekly schedule in the fall. In the meantime, please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple...
Waiting at the Airport
The current state of US-Iran negotiations (or lack thereof); escalation and mixed signal-sending in the Strait of Hormuz; multiple veto players on each side; Pakistan’s interesting role; the shadow of President Obama and the 2015 Iran Deal; and Marcus has never flown Spirit but has seen the Youtube videos
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.
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Ch...
It's Real and It's Dangerous
Excitement in the world of digital diplomacy; face-to-face diplomacy to end the Iran war; blockading Iran as a plan B and its prospects for success; Anthropic’s Mythos and AI that is too dangerous to release; the offense-defense balance in cyberspace; building AI for the public good; more capable models are more dangerous, even if they are well aligned; and Marcus can’t be bothered
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.
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Something Revolutionarily Wonderful
Trump’s threats against Iranian civilization; nuclear threats and the risk of nuclear use in Iran; threatening war crimes is both bad and bad policy; the prospects for the ceasefire and remaining challenges to overcome; the diplomatic role of China and Pakistan; and Marcus feels like he’s in multiple worlds
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.
Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.
Seems Like a Bad Idea
How Russia benefits from the Iran war; President Trump’s recent statements about how the war is going; China is both helped by and hurt by the Iran war; prediction markets as an aggregation mechanism for the wisdom of crowds; insider trading and insider influence; the characteristics of wise crowds; and Marcus will never make that mistake again
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.
Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be...
15 Points of Agreement
Uncertainty about the state of US-Iran peace talks; the challenges of US military operations in the Strait of Hormuz; getting nuclear material out of Iran; whether the United States needs a negotiated settlement to end the war; and Marcus is afraid to put his mugs in the dishwasher
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.
Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.
Check...
Had You Asked Us, We Would Have Said No
Washington’s allergy to the “w”-word in describing the conflict in Iran; the Trump administration seems to have been caught off guard by some aspects of the conflict; what we have learned about the real drivers of the conflict; the extent to which the parties are achieving their strategic goals in the region; leadership assassinations and the quest for stability; calling on allies to help deal with the Strait of Hormuz; speculation about the timeline for an end to the war; and Marcus’ predictions were right, but came ten months late
The opinions expressed on this podcast...
Analysts Are Fairly Skeptical
Failed diplomacy in the lead-up to the conflict; rationales for military action; windows of opportunity and the road to war; the prospects for regime change in Iran; the track record of strategic bombing campaigns; the economics of missile interceptors; what all this means for China and Russia; and Marcus wants to get some figures on the table
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.
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Those Secret Words
The State of the Union foreign policy lightning round; the possibility of imminent war with Iran; confusing signals from the US; strategic clarity and the effectiveness of deterrent threats; the challenges of finding another Iran deal; tension between Anthropic and the Defense Department; hints of AI governance; and Marcus isn’t sure premium gas is worth it
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.
Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be no...
Pro-Peace and Prosperity
The last remaining nuclear arms control treaty has expired; the beneficial side effects of arms control; the value of treaty-breaking as a low-cost signal in international relations; the decline of arms control as an international priority; China’s strategic calculus; whether verification is important in arms control treaties; arms control as a casualty of the war in Ukraine; planning our next move in a post-arms control world; and Marcus is a little naïve
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.
Ple...
Learn to Code, Kids
Cheap Talk takes a break from IR to discuss vibe coding; the CheapTalkBot origin story; new opportunities to express creativity via vibe coding; mid-century modern architecture in Palm Springs; whether non-programmers can really do this; ChatGPT vs. Claude; context windows in AI tools; the use of AI for Retrieval Augmented Generation; and Marcus isn’t being creative enough
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.
Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be...
It's Doomsday Day!
It is 85 seconds to midnight (according to the Doomsday Clock); evaluating the risk of catastrophe; the latest Board of Peace developments; another speech pointing to the end of the international system as we know it; what it means for Europe to take more responsibility for its own defense; and Marcus recalls World War II
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.
Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new...
Crazy Things in Foreign Policy
Cheap Talk returns from winter break to discuss the Venezuela situation; what is driving US Venezuela policy; implications of the US capture of Maduro; signaling US seriousness in international affairs; similarities between Venezuela and Greenland; IR theory in Canadian PM Carney’s Davos speech; and Marcus was, yet again, surprised by events
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.
Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are po...
Inherent Greatness and Decency
The degradation of the State Department’s official correspondence due to font choice; the Trump Administration releases its National Security Strategy; the return of spheres of influence and the primacy of the Western Hemisphere for US policy; the supposed decline of European civilization; the general problem with national security strategy documents; the glaring absence of the liberal international order in US strategy; and Marcus is generally confused about fonts
Cheap Talk is taking a holiday break, but will be back with new episodes in January. Subscribe in Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be...
A Living, Breathing Document
The US plan for peace between Russia and Ukraine; what Putin wants out of a settlement; the wider effects of the war on Europe; Jared Kushner is back; what AI is actually good for (according to a new study); gifts for the IR enthusiast in your life; and Marcus would like a map for Christmas
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.
Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when...
Live from Williamsburg, Virginia!
Cheap Talk Live! The students of William & Mary’s “Introduction to International Politics” course join the podcast to discuss drug boats; the UN-approved peace plan for Gaza; an AI arms race; the intersection of IR theory and policymaking; ending the war in Ukraine; overconfidence and fear in IR; whether IR students have to go to grad school; the ideal podcast co-host; our IR origin stories; Thanksgiving dinner picks; and Marcus takes food safety very seriously
Special thanks to William & Mary’s Jeff Herrick for audio support and to all the GOVT 204 students who participated in the show. Happy Th...
Wars on Things
Strikes by the United States military on suspected drug boats in the Pacific; the legality of these strikes; why it might matter if the US is violating international law; building pressure on Venezuela; the US strategy (if there is one); the problems with wars on things; and Marcus has never had Tofurkey
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.
Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are...
A Little Bit of a Vibration
Dick Cheney’s outsized foreign policy role in the George W. Bush administration; what President Trump is talking about when he talks about nuclear testing; the nuclear testing announcement as diplomatic leverage; US readiness to test; nuclear testing for deterrence; the downsides of exploding nuclear weapons in Nevada; and Marcus loves Election Day
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.
Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes ar...
The Remaining Four-to-Five Minutes of Your Life
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.
Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.
Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.
Further Reading/Watching:
A House of Dynamite, streaming on Netflix
Nuclear Decisions Online Game
Jeffrey Lewis. 2018. The 2020 Commission Report On The North Korean Nuclear Attacks Against The U.S.: A Speculative Novel. Harper.
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More Efficient Powerpoint Production
Ceasefires are good; Trump’s personal stake in Middle East diplomacy; the implausibility of the AI apocalypse; the incremental ceding of human control over autonomous systems; plausible mechanisms for AI control of nuclear arsenals; misalignment, poisoning, and the manipulation of AI models; and Marcus discusses the meaning of consciousness
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.
Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.
Ch...
The Hopeful Moment
Francis Fukuyama joins Cheap Talk to discuss the rise of authoritarianism; Europe’s security environment; the risk of AI catastrophe; signs of hope for democratic resilience; and Marcus has a lot of respect for centenarians
Francis Fukuyama is the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI). He has written widely on issues in development and international politics. His books include The End of History and the Last Man (1992), The Origins of Political Order (2011), Political Order and Political Decay (2014), Identity: The Demand for Dignity and the Politics of Resentment (2018), and Liberalism an...
A Country That Shall Not Be Named
What, if anything, the government shutdown means for international politics; the US and its weakened capacity to conduct foreign policy; non-great-power nomenclature; defining power in the international system; how middle powers can achieve their goals in international relations; shifts in great power foreign policy toward smaller states; and Marcus has seen the error of his ways
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.
Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified...
There's Been Some News
Small signs of hope for arms control between the United States and Russia; a review of the last ten years of US-Russia policy; explaining Trump’s about-face on Ukraine; an airing of grievances at the UN; and Marcus can’t wait for Thanksgiving
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.
Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.
Check out our online store at http...
A Responsible Member of the Community
Russian drone incursions into Polish airspace; questions about Russia’s intent; the risk of escalation; deterrence failure in protecting NATO airspace; preference differences within the alliance; a deal for TikTok; China’s interest in global governance and a multipolar world; and Marcus has a step-by-step plan for China’s world domination
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.
Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.
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That Man Is in Everybody's Business
Why Trump thought there might be a deal with Russia; the obliteration of Iran’s nuclear program; speaking truth to power; deterrence failure and pushing Iran toward nuclear weapons; Iran’s modest response to the attacks; enforcement within the NPT; implications for regional and global security; and Marcus reflects on why he was so wrong
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.
Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new...
They Canceled the Lunch
Thank you to our listeners for joining us for five seasons and 100 episodes!
Cheap Talk returns for Season 6: Advice for new college students; the Trump-Putin summit spectacle; analyzing Trump’s body language; the challenges of studying summitry; the Trump administration’s unique approach to high-level meetings; a typology of leader diplomacy; Zelensky’s DC visit; the Trump administration’s overall posture toward the conflict; and Marcus would be happy to say nothing at all
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.
Pl...
The Limits of Diplomacy
A Cheap Talk emergency episode on the Israel-Iran conflict
Putting in the Work
Cheap Talk’s Season 5 finale: Everyone is cheating their way through college; remembering Joe Nye; interpreting President Trump’s big beautiful phone call with Vladimir Putin; evaluating the Golden Dome missile defense system; missile defense and strategic stability; and Marcus is looking forward to season 6
We’re mostly taking the summer off from podcasting (unless something big happens), but we’ll be back to our regular weekly schedule in the fall. In the meantime, please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.
Th...
They're Using it Wrong
Some good arguments against AI use in the classroom; how students are actually using AI; the idea of AI as a learning coach; other models for AI use by students; testing out an AI prediction coach; the balance between coaching and just doing the work for you; issues to consider before deploying AI in the classroom; and Marcus does math without a calculator
Try the AI prediction coach described in the podcast (requires a free ChatGPT login)
The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions...
