InFi: the Future of Finance

Perry Metzger returns to the podcast, this time to bring a dose of cynicism to the recent warnings coming from Anthropic employees, including CEO Dario Amodei. Metzger agrees that evil humans can use new technology in nefarious ways, but argues that the good guys likewise need to develop AI tools for defensive purposes.

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Intrigued by the combination, Bob analysis a recent Trump social media post in which he warned the Fed to cut interest rates, or else Trump would eliminate trade with those countries who currently enjoy a trade surplus with the US. Bob concludes that in general such a drastic move would raise US interest rates, but perversely if it caused a global financial crash, it conceivably could keep rates low on US Treasuries specifically.

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Bob explains that Treasury Secretary Bessent's policy of buying back long-dated securities will lower the government's interest expense in the short run, but makes it more vulnerable to future rate hikes.

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Murphy explains the massive joint US/Japan operations to prop up the yen and draws lessons for the US. In short, massive government deficits and central bank easy money are not the path to prosperity.

Murphy breaks down Japan's recent currency and bond market moves, including the yen falling to a 40-year low against the U.S. dollar and the intervention by Japanese authorities in the foreign exchange market. He reviews the scale of that intervention, compares it with earlier episodes, and explains how market participants may have responded afterward. He also examines Japan's inflation history, from...

A popular objection is that capitalism requires exponential growth, which is incompatible with a finite world. Bob critiques both premises.

Related:
- https://infineo.ai/resources/blog/Expectations-About-the-Future-Affect-Price-Today-Part-2-of-3 
- https://mises.org/mises-daily/law-property-rights-and-air-pollution 
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CWHfPlXX14 
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-zjYmq6B-c 

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Bob uses a recent tweet from Steve Keen to weigh in on an old controversy. Government deficits don't cause price inflation per se, but they often encourage the central bank to create more money, which is inflationary. The distinction matters: a deficit is a fiscal phenomenon, but the inflation mechanism requires monetary policy—specifically, central bank accommodation of government borrowing. Bob unpacks why Keynesians, Austrians, and MMT economists talk past each other on this question, and where each school gets the causation right and wrong.

Related:
- https://x.com/ProfSteveKeen/status/2083718398119166163 
- https://cdn.mis...

Bob explains the numerous flaws with NYC Mayor Mamdani's proposal to have government-run grocery stores sell key items at 30% below retail. Bob also explains the problem with a popular meme asking why people pay taxes if the government can just print money.

MAMDANI MARTS — WHAT COULD GO WRONG?

NYC Mayor Mamdani wants to open five city-run grocery stores selling a core set of items at 30% below typical retail prices. It sounds like a win for struggling New Yorkers — but the economics tell a very different story.

Bob walks through the cascade of problems this...

Bob draws on three clips from a popular video discussing the banking sector, pre- and post-Fed. Bob dispels myths about the "wildcat" banks of the so-called Free Banking era, and shows that the Fed clearly led to more economic instability (as well as inflation).

Related:
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4uTadogtI4 
- https://infineo.ai/podcast/100 
- https://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/quarterly-review/free-banking-wildcat-banking-and-shinplasters 
- https://infineo.ai/resources/blog/does-history-show-government-debt-paydown-causes-a-crash 
- https://www.fte.org/wp-content/uploads/WhiteSelginLastrapesFed1.pdf 

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Alex Tabarrok is a professor of economics at George Mason University. He joins Bob to discuss the problems with the typical economic analysis of crime, which (in the hands of Gary Becker) advocated increasing the punishment to bolster deterrence.

Related:
- https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2015/09/what-was-gary-beckers-biggest-mistake.html 
- https://www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/17285.Jane_Jacobs

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Spurred by the NYC rent freeze, Bob lays out the theory and history of rent control, explaining why it hurts the people it ostensibly is supposed to help. He also shows why a "revisionist" paper actually confirms the textbook arguments against rent control.

Related:
- https://mason.gmu.edu/~atabarro/RentControl 
- https://sci-hub.st/10.1016/j.jue.2006.06.004 

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Using the 2009 testimony of Brad DeLong as a foil, Bob defends the gold standard from the typical accusation that it was responsible for the Great Depression. Bob shows that even after leaving gold, both the UK and US remain mired with double-digit unemployment for longer than prior depressions had lasted.

Related:
- https://infineo.ai/resources/blog/Did-Gold-Cause-the-Great-Depression 
- https://fee.org/articles/the-depression-youve-never-heard-of-1920-1921 

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Bob presents several lines of evidence to argue that the Federal Reserve under Alan Greenspan helped fuel the housing bubble in the early to mid-2000s. He also pushes back against the claim that it was an Asian savings glut to blame.

Related:
- https://cdn.mises.org/understanding_money_mechanics_with_cover_image_attached.pdf 
- https://mises.org/mises-daily/did-fed-or-asian-saving-cause-housing-bubble 
- https://mises.org/mises-daily/krugmans-call-housing-bubble 
- https://www.cato.org/briefing-paper/greenspans-monetary-policy-retrospect 
- https://mises.org/mises-daily/worst-recession-25-years 

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Bob goes through a recent Substack post (adapted from his book) by Arin Dube, a leading economist pushing for aggressive minimum wage hikes. Bob shows the weaknesses in Dube's results, and gives an alternative measure detailing just how chilling minimum wage hikes may be on teen employment.

Related:
- https://arindube.substack.com/p/a-minimum-wage-natural-experiment 
- https://www.econlib.org/library/Columns/y2014/Murphyminimumwage.html 

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Brent Johnson (of "dollar milkshake" fame) recently posted a video relaying the Triffin Dilemma to our current monetary situation. Bob pushes back, arguing that there was no problem with the dollar being tied to gold, and that its days as the global reserve are fewer than Brent thinks.

Related:
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bej0-8r8Rmk 
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ghdkFVKBW4 
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19xHntPZVvg 
- https://mises.org/mises-daily/putting-country-back-gold 

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Bob launches a 10-part series on money, banking, insurance, and blockchain. This initial lecture gives the definition of money, explains the properties of a good money, and surveys various monies through history.

Related:
- https://miltonfriedman.hoover.org/internal/media/dispatcher/215061/full 
- https://courses.cit.cornell.edu/econ4260/out/radford_pow.pdf 
- https://cdn.mises.org/Study%20Guide%20to%20the%20Theory%20of%20Money%20and%20Credit_2.pdf 
- https://cdn.mises.org/understanding_money_mechanics_with_cover_image_attached.pdf 

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Bob points out the numerous fallacies in a recent video arguing government debt is simply national savings.

Related:
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMfCrIhlAm8 
- https://infineo.ai/resources/blog/richard-murphy-on-the-economics-of-christmas 
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Fj0zRmEWYc 
- https://infineo.ai/resources/blog/a-biz-vs-a-bank-vs-the-fed-part-3-of-3 
- https://www.econlib.org/library/Columns/y2015/Murphywardebt.html 

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Robert Rapier has decades of experience in fossil and biofuels, including six years with ConocoPhillips. He joins Bob to correct a common misconception about US refineries. Although in practice they focus on heavy sour crude (sourced from Canada, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela), they are physically capable of handling the light sweet produced by the fracking boom. It just makes more economic sense to export those barrels abroad and fetch a higher price. Rapier's analysis gives a better understanding of US energy independence in these volatile times.

Related:
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2026/04/05/debunking-a-persistent-myth-us-refineries-cant-handle-shale-oil<...

Bob draws on the work of Robert Aro to show how the Fed's massive reverse repo operations explain (a) why consumer price inflation wasn't worse after Covid and (b) why the Fed's tightening hasn't yet led to a market crash.

Related:
- https://mises.org/podcasts/human-action-podcast/robert-aro-feds-reverse-repo-trick 
- https://infineo.ai/podcast/71

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Bob gives the historical context and the implications of the US federal debt exceeding 100% of GDP. He also shows why the dismissal by MMTer Stephanie Kelton misses the mark.

Related:
- https://www.newsweek.com/us-debt-bigger-than-gdp-does-it-matter-11903945 
- https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61270 
- https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/RS22331 
- https://www.fxcintel.com/research/analysis/cips-growth-may-2025 

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Bob looks at the latest figures to give an update on the US oil and gasoline status, in light of the ongoing standoff with Iran. He points out that certain "irrational" government policies now seem understandable.

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Bob unpacks the alarming remarks from former Treasury Secretary (and Goldman CEO) Hank Paulson in a Bloomberg interview. Paulson actually recommends the creation of an emergency "break the glass" plan if the Fed should become the only buyer of Treasuries.

Related:
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQY_h48GbQM 

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Tony Garcia has a master's degree and decades of experience in cybersecurity. He joins Bob to discuss what happened in the Drift heist, and what lessons can be learned—in a context of tradeoffs where security is only one of several goals.

Related: https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/01/de-fi-platform-drift-suspends-deposits-and-withdrawals-after-millions-in-crypto-stolen-in-hack 

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Michael Fraser is co-founder of Action / Insight, a business AI consulting firm out of Toronto. He is also an amateur expert in Austrian economics, and recently presented a conference paper arguing that today's leading LLMs (such as Claude or ChatGPT) satisfy the criteria for "action" laid out by Ludwig von Mises.

Related:
- https://infineo.ai/podcast/22 
- https://actioninsight.ai 

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Murphy analyzes three recent news items: progress on the CLARITY Act, the SEC clarification on which blockchain items are NOT securities, and Sen. Marsha Blackburn's proposals to regulate AI.

Related:
- https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2026/03/20/congress/senators-strike-deal-with-white-house-to-resolve-bank-crypto-clash-00837464 
- https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/speeches-statements/atkins-remarks-regulation-crypto-assets-031726 
- https://www.blackburn.senate.gov/2026/3/technology/blackburn-releases-discussion-draft-of-national-policy-framework-for-artificial-intelligence/3b3b6458-b6c7-478b-9859-374949586765 
- https://infineo.ai/bank-of-americas-ceo-warns-stablecoins-could-take-6-trillion-of-deposits 

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A popular objection on social media states that the US only gets 2% of its crude oil via the Persian Gulf, and so therefore the conflict in Iran shouldn't affect prices at the pump for Americans. Murphy explains the various problems with this argument.

Related:
- https://www.econlib.org/library/Columns/y2008/Murphyoil.html 
- https://mises.org/mises-daily/social-function-call-and-put-options 
- https://journal.apee.org/ARTICLES_2018_Journal_of_Private_Enterprise_Vol_33_No_1_Spring_parte5 

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Murphy explains the economics of the interruption of oil exports from the Persian Gulf. He shows that the recent peak in crude prices was nowhere near the (inflation-adjusted) 2008 spike, and offers further commentary on the position of China.

Related:
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeOaei2ADDA 
- https://journal.apee.org/ARTICLES_2018_Journal_of_Private_Enterprise_Vol_33_No_1_Spring_parte5 
- https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/implications-of-the-conflict-in-the-middle-east-for-chinas-energy-security 

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Responding to a discussion on X, Murphy documents the official rise in grocery food prices over the last 30 years, and then explains the role of monetary inflation.

Related:
- https://infineo.ai/why-are-groceries-so-expensive-part-1-of-2 
- https://infineo.ai/podcast/116 

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Murphy analyzes the past 15 year performance of gold versus Bitcoin. He also offers thoughts on the recent spike in gold.

Related:
- https://infineo.ai/gold-versus-bitcoin 
- https://infineo.ai/tether-is-becoming-a-market-based-central-bank 

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Julia Cartwright is a Senior Researcher with the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER). She joins Murphy to diagnose the demographic, fiscal, and monetary quagmire of Japan, and warns that other countries in Europe and Asia are sinking into the same abyss.

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The editor of the Modern Age magazine joins Murphy to discuss a California ballot initiative that would assess a 5% wealth tax on any billionaires in the state.

Related:
- https://chroniclesmagazine.org/web/from-rock-to-tech-talent-flees-taxes 

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In the wake of an X Spaces discussion, Murphy critically assesses various explanations for why the USD has value, such as the military and power to tax. He also explains the contributions of Ludwig von Mises to monetary theory.

Related:
- https://cdn.mises.org/understanding_money_mechanics_with_cover_image_attached.pdf

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Alex Stevens and Sam Peterson of the Institute for Energy Research join Murphy to explain why government policy, not AI data centers, are to blame for surging electricity prices.

Related:
- https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/12/24/energy-prices-regulation 

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Recently President Trump called for a 10% cap on credit card interest rates, and $200 billion of purchases of mortgage-backed securities. Both moves were intended to help the average American. They each have unintended economic consequences, but the policies are structured differently and require different tools of analysis.

Related:
- https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/09/trump-orders-mortgage-bond-purchases-these-stocks-are-jumping.html 
- https://www.businessinsider.com/ackman-trump-call-cap-credit-card-interest-mistake-affordability-2026-1 

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Anirudh Pai is a partner at Robot Ventures, who has a long history in innovative finance. He has a broad discussion with Murphy covering various topics including smart contracts, decentralized governance, and prediction markets being used as insurance.

Related:
-  https://robvc.com 
- https://electricsheep.substack.com 
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEa2AEr0jcc
- https://x.com/ani_pai 

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In InFi ep. 116, Eric Weinstein talked with Bob for more than 2 hours on applying gauge theory to economics. In this episode, Bob unpacks some of the key lessons from the discussion.

Related:
- https://infineo.ai/podcast/116 
- https://infineo.ai/eric-weinstein-on-economics-part-1-of-3 

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Anja Dragovic is an Australian-based host of the Honest Money Show, a podcast that brings Bitcoin education, with an emphasis on bringing women into the honest-money movement. She joins Bob to explain her own discovery of Austrian economics and the virtues of sound money, as well as the major roadblocks to Bitcoin adoption.

Related:
- https://www.youtube.com/@HonestMoneyShow

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Bob draws on the yield curve, Fed announcements, and labor market data to give his assessment of the economy for the coming year.

Related:
- https://infineo.ai/a-macroeconomic-outlook-part-1-of-2 
- https://infineo.ai/a-macroeconomic-outlook-part-2-of-2 

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Eric Weinstein joins Bob Murphy to discuss his work with Pia Malaney on a more economically relevant differential operator, which has important implications for cost-of-living adjustments. Eric Weinstein has a PhD in mathematics from Harvard University, and among other academic appointments was a Research Associate in the Harvard economics department from 1998 - 2001, where he co-founded the Science and Engineering Workforce Project (SEWP) with Richard Freeman, housed at the NBER and funded by the Sloan Foundation.

Related:
- https://video-archive.fields.utoronto.ca/view/1838 
- https://video-archive.fields.utoronto.ca/view/1837 
- https://www.youtube.co...

Keith Weiner is founder and CEO of Monetary Metals, a company that pays its customers interest on their gold and silver, denominated in ounces of gold and silver. The company has arrangements with jewelers, miners, and other industry participants to make their offers credible. Keith joins Dr. Murphy to discuss the mission of Monetary Metals, their unique business model, and his views on fiat currency and cryptocurrencies.

Related:
- https://www.monetary-metals.com 
- https://keithweinereconomics.com/2012/02/02/gold-bonds-to-avert-financial-armageddon 

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Bob was a panelist for Benzinga's Fintech Day & Awards in NYC on November 10. In this episode he shares some of the highlights of the discussion, including the interaction between tradfi banks and stablecoin issuers.

Related: https://infineo.ai/podcast/113 

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