The Bayesian Conspiracy

Maia joins Steven for a quick call to action to attend the AI Treaty March this Saturday, November 14th!

My audio took a pretty hard hit cleaning up some audio artifacts from the track, but Maia does most of the talking and says all of the important parts anyway.

AI Treaty March

Call Congress

Crit-rat Vaden Masrani of the Increments podcast joins us to talk about the difference between Critical Rationalism and Bayesian Rationalism. We get kinda side-tracked, Eneasz isn’t happy about it.

LINKS
Vaden’s Podcast: Increments
Eneasz’s post about this episode
Winter 2027 AFFINE Alignment Seminar
Takeoff Conference
GPU World Short Story Contest
Economies of Force — Seth Dickinson’s short story
TBC 267 – Our HuggingFace Hack Episode
Adam Majmudar on the Interpretability Breakthrough
The Elephant in the Brain by Kevin Simler and Robin Hanson
Scott Alexander’s Open Letter to Steven Pink...

Stephan Wäldchen at Lighthaven

See this video on YouTube

Apply to the Illiad Intensive

Out of this Box – the AI Musical

A bunch of Rationalist gossip and updates, and a meta discussion about the podcast.

LINKS
Caroline Ellison has joined Manifund
TracingWoodgrains on Austin + WBE
OpenAI Scraps Release of New AI Model Over Safety Concerns
Clause stopped cheating
Anthropic gave their AI a biolab
Department of War going after Effective Altruism
The Economist calls EA “the 21st century’s most important social movement”
Our Episode #28 – Effective Altruism
AI Pain Vector found
AI Torture Chamber built
The Curve impressions
The first anti-slutcon tweet :/
SFF announcing they are defu...

Moma talks about how Aella’s influence makes her community safer for women. Also her SlutCon 2026 experience.

See video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk9EKkpDMFg&feature=youtu.be&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss

We talk to keltan, from MIRI, about his opinions of short form video, PlzDontKillUs, telling our parents about AI, and how Eneasz’s first short-form video fares.

LINKS
keltan’s Twitter (and secret substack, don’t tell him we linked it!)
Eneasz’s prior interviews with PlzDontKillUs fellows Milo and Vishal
If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies
Eneasz’s 7 Reasons video on TikTok, Insta, YouTube, and Twitter

Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video

Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack

Hey look, we have a discor...

We asked Matt to come on for a different topic, and we had to pivot to the latest AI stuff because it’s so big.

LINKS
Rick Rescorla, a 9/11 hero we talk about
Our previous episodes on The Void pt1 and pt2, and GPT3
Richard Ngo on how AI Safety only increased Capabilities

Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video

Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack

Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?
We now partner with The Guild of t...

A lot of updates and feedback before the main post. Then we get into The Power to Demolish Bad Arguments by Liron.

LINKS
The Power to Demolish Bad Arguments
The Overhang forecasting & futurism conference in DC
I Think Knot read-through podcast of The Knot (or get audio) at HPMORpodcast.com
BayesWatch
Ordinary Abundance

Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video

00:01:14.000 – Side-projects and feedback
00:54:58.000 – Specificity
01:41:12.000 – Guild of the Rose

Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack

Hey look, we have a di...

Vishal talks about PlzDontKillUs and short form video culture. Plus AI Doom!

Vishal’s Blog

Vishal’s Compute Cop video, and also all the rest

Wes joins us! We discuss Aella’s post The Other Sexual Orientation. Then we find fault with a Kegan-level-4 post about how CNC Kink should be disappeared.

LINKS
The Other Sexual Orientation
A Bad Tweet
The Sex & Sensibility Podcast
The Details of the HuggingFace Incident AI Message Board via Zvi

Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video

00:02:32 – Follow-up on the HuggingFace Incident
00:14:56 – The Other Sexual Orientation
00:37:46 – A Bad Tweet
01:29:57 – Guild of the Rose
01:32:16 – Thank the Supporter!

Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our Su...

Milo’s favorite video – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8YYwlIWI2E plzdontkillus – https://portal.plzdontkillus.com/home Original video:

Jessiah Mellot talks about HPMOR, and the video essay he made about HPMOR for PlzDontKillUs. Watch this on Youtube here see Jessiah’s video essay here

First feedback, then we talk about OpenAI’s latest megamodel independently commiting cybercrime in a world-first incident. Then the Haters who hate altruism when it’s the outgroup’s charities. Also a brief nod to Stochastic Terrorism. LINKS Scott Alexander on the HuggingFace hack The Effective-Altruism Comeback Scanning Tons of Books Against Stochastic Terrorism Paid Bonus content for […]

We go through AI2040 Plan A in years. LINKS AI-2040 AskWho Casts Pro Tomas Bjartur’s “The Company Man” and “The Origami Men” Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video 00:04:33 – AI-2040: Plan A 01:14:41 – Guild of the Rose 01:19:52 – Thank the Supporter! Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, […]

Steven is joined by the hosts of the Sex and Sensibility podcast! Join us as we explore the vibrant world of VibeCamp, a unique gathering where creativity, curiosity, and community collide. From unconventional events like imagining eating someone to building playgrounds, this episode dives into the eclectic and wholesome spirit of VibeCamp. Join us as […]

Eneasz and Steven are at LessOnline/SummerCamp and Steven was lucky enough to attend a short presentation by Damon (Daystar Eld) and Ivy on How to Become a Romantic. The presentation was too short for Steven’s satisfaction, so we found a time slot to record a (too short) episode. LINKS Damon/Daystar Eld Ivy’s X handle and […]

Our values are robust against Moloch because they were forged in his flames. LINKS When does competition lead to recognisable values? Our episode 18 – Robin Hanson Interview Chex Quest FarmKind – Animal Welfare Offsets (matching code “cagefree”) Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video 00:03:02 – A Good Post-AGI Future 00:15:07 – Human […]

In Episode 258 we talked about EA Veganism for a bit… and that bit was not long enough. So here we go again! Fill out Steven’s 3-question survey! LINKS Our episode 258 – How Effective Altruism Has Evolved EA Vegan Advocacy is not truthseeking, and it’s everyone’s problem by Elizabeth Vegan Health Advice by Ozy Dairy […]

The stupid red-button/blue-button discourse came back. Eneasz thought he could sit out this round until Aella went Chaos God with her social media app, Glosso. Fill out our new 2-question survey! LINKS PlzDontKillUs Inkhaven Presents podcast The Knot webfic The Mind Reviver Glosso Stupid Tim Urban with his stupid button-resurrection oh noes, Anthropic employees gonna give […]

We discuss how far the right to be wrong goes, a recent intra-rat kerfuffle, and why random violence is bad. And it’s secretly all about AI Doom. Fill out our 2-question survey! LINKS One Week in the Rat Farm Kelsey’s religious liberalism tweet Scott’s tweet in response to Robby from MIRI Scott’s tweet in reply […]

Matt returns to discuss a post urging us to chill out on AI if there isn’t imminent doom in 2028. There is no video or preshow chat today, due to user error in setting up an in-person video recording. Sorry. 🙁 LINKS Consider chilling out in 2028 The Scary Bridge Kill Your Friend’s Cat The […]

We talk about three EA-adjacent articles, hitting veganism, directing your donations, and community. LINKS Why you should eat meat – even if you hate factory farming by KatWoods Donations, The Fifth Year, by Jenn Promises, by Harri Bayesian Conspiracy 28 – Effective Altruism The Case For Sardines “oh noes, Anthropic employees gonna give money to […]

We relive the last 48 hours of the future of humanity being wrestled over. The Pentagon wants to use Claude for comprehensive mass surveillance of Americans and autonomous kill-bots, and Anthropic says no. The Pentagon retaliates with extreme prejudice. With guest-star Matt. LINKS Washington Post summary Anthropic’s response Trump’s response Hegseth’s unhinged lunacy We Will […]

We are inspired by Andrew Cutler’s Writing for AI to consider the value of writing for LLMs LINKS Andrew Cutler’s Writing for AI Gwern’s Writing for LLMs Tracing Woodgrain’s Reliable Sources Shambaugh’s An AI Agent Published a Hit Piece on Me Eneasz’s Stone Age Billionaire Can’t Word Good InkHaven LessOnline The main purpose of the […]

Eneasz talks a bit about his CFAR experience, and we discuss DaystarEld’s Epistemically Honest Reassurance LINKS CFAR’s home page Upcoming CFAR workshops our episode 152 – Frame Control with Aella Epistemically Honest Reassurance Pokémon, Origin of the Species (also in audio) Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow chatter, Full Show Video 00:00:56 – […]

WSCFriedman gets to the core of what HPMOR is ACTUALLY about, and finally pinpoints why we love it so much, in his essay Harry Potter And The Methods Of Rationality Is A Disney Movie About A Serial Killer. LINKS Audio version of HPMOR is A Disney Movie About A Serial Killer, from AskWho William’s blog, […]

Discussing Ben Pace’s recent post on the Rationalist Vices. LINKS The Seven Vicious Vices of Rationalists (includes AI audio version) Lightcone Fundraiser! 2025 LessWrong Census/Survey Simone & Malcom Collins vs Reporter on whether genes exist MIRI is hiring Slime Mold Time Mold’s long-delayed Lithium response If Anyone Builds It Everyone Dies Dear Grom by Eneasz […]

A short story by Ben Pace. Original can be found here. Donate to the fundraiser here! Harry sings karaoke here. Happy New Year. 🙂

A short story by Prerat. Original can be found here. Merry Xmas!

Hello and happy holiday season to you all! Eneasz is back and we’re here to say hi and give a shoutout to Skyler’s awesome annual LessWrong survey and Lighthaven’s fundraising event. See the links below for more details. LINKS The LessWrong survey will remain open from now until at least January 7th, 2026. Lighthaven is […]

Join me as I sit down with Alex and David, both previous guests on the show and both cofounders of the Guild of the Rose. Together, we go over the core – the heart – of what we consider to be the Rationalist tradition. The 12 Virtues are an awesome distillation of what the rest […]

Matt Freeman has been cohosting several media analysis podcasts for over a decade. He and his cohost Scott have been doing weekly episodes of the Doofcast every Friday and they cover movies, books, and TV shows. Matt and Scott’s analysis podcasts have made me love stories even more and have equipped me with tools to […]

Booker is a long-time attendee and one of the coordinators of the Denver area Less Wrong community. Community engagement isn’t just a background task for him – he’s taken real steps to get involved with and improve his community and you can too! He’s here to tell us about the things he’s done and give […]

While Eneasz is busy at InkHaven, Steven sits down with Matt Freeman to talk about not-AI stuff! We had (in my opinion) a great conversation about stoic philosophy, the traps of getting too entrenched in any philosophical framework, and some of the ingredients of a happy life. LINKS It’s Okay to Feel Bad for a […]

We talk with Max Harms on the air for the first time since 2017! He’s got a new book coming out (pre-order your copy here or at Amazon) and we spend about the first half talking about If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies. LINKS Max’s first book, Crystal Society Eneasz’s audiobook of about the first […]

Jay talks with us about finding Alpha – returns above the base rate – in every day life (and what this means). LINKS Optimize Everything, Jay’s substack Jay on Twitter Arbor Trading Bootcamp Kelsey’s argument that We Need To Be Able To Sue AI Companies 00:00:05 – Alpha with Jay 01:28:53 – Guild of the […]

We continue discussing Nostalgebraist’s “The Void” in the context of how to relate to LLMs. If God imagines Claude hard enough, does Claude become real? LINKS The Void Audio reading of The Void, from AskWho The referenced episode where the three of us spoke of Janus’s post “Simulators” Claude-Clark post – Simulacra Welfare: Meet Clark, by […]

We discuss Nostalgebraist’s “The Void” in the context of how to relate to LLMs. “When you talk to ChatGPT, who or what are you talking to?” LINKS The Void Audio reading of The Void, from AskWho The referenced episode where the three of us spoke of Janus’s post “Simulators” The Measure of a Man episode […]

Audio reading of The Void, from AskWho

Do we need to be concerned for the welfare of AIs today? What about the near future? Eleos AI Research is asking exactly that. LINKS Eleos AI Research People for the Ethical Treatment of Reinforcement Learners Bees Can’t Suffer? Lena, by qntm When AI Seems Conscious Experience Machines, Rob’s substack The War on General Computation […]