The Care for My Wealth Show

Has the AI Bubble popped?  Let's see what the US Dollar and Bond Yields have to say about it. 

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BRAZIL - the crash that no one cared about

BITCOIN - consolidation...or breakdown?

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Is the tech correction over?

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How do you tell if the AI trade is over?

Rates are falling. Is this a real flight to safety or the bond market sniffing out disinflation?

Or, is it deflation which is worse!

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Are semiconductors acting like its 2000? 

Oil is looking exhausted.

Housing - ready for a boom? 

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How hedged is the market headed into earnings?

Rates - changing?

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Headed into the strongest stretch of the calendar WITHIN the strongest stretch of the 4yr Presidential cycle.

Copper sending a CAREFUL signal?

Copper miners and MX Peso diverging. Does it matter?

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Rotation out of tech continues - energy and healthcare beneficiaries

Global money supply increasing again.

Oct Fed rate hike odds drop to 30%

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Buyback Window is OPENING!

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SAESONALITY is here!

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The market is trading at more of a discount than you think!

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Is the famous magazine cover indicator ready to strike again?

Is the Fed ready to pull the trigger on their bazooka?!

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Concentration isn't the risk most think it is

AI earnings are bigger than you think!



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Just How Junky Is The Junk Bond Market?

Is it sounding an alarm?

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BRAZIL! Viva o Brasil!

Credit spreads are fine

Gold...not a bottom yet.

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Could the PAIN TRADE be higher from here??!!

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Could we really see rates rising into 2040?

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Is the AI train starting to produce real productivity and ROI?

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S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT - down 7 weeks in a row. TIme for a bounce?

GROWTH - Atlanta Fed dropped Q3 GDP estimate from 5% to 3.7%

S&P 500 Q 4 Set up - Strong Q2, positive Q3, has ended up positiove for Q4 for every other instance in histiry wiht the same set up.

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RATES - companies handling higher rates really well!

Growth - growing!

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Bad Breadth...but where is it isolated?

Stock and rates correlation. What changed?

US Dollar...if it is going to correct...this is the spot.

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5%...isn't something supposed to break!  Not when you look at the cost of money though the correct lens.

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MOVE Index Moved hard! Last time coincided with stock market bottoms...or close to it.

BREADTH - sucks in the short term view. But zoom out and look at price! New highs or near new highs.

FLASH PMIs - US Business is BOOMING!

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Metals - Gold & Silver don't like accelerating CPI data or risng 2YR rates

Sentiment - AAII data says lots of investors are bearish...similar to what we saw in spring 2025. Right before a very powerful rally

Seasonality - OCT NOV are best 2 months in mid-term years going back to 1950.

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YIELD CURVE - hammered down. 

OIL - 10YR / OIL correlation highest since 1990. Iran dependent more than Fed.

SEMICONDUCTORS - -13% discount to the S&P!

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AI spending is just beginning

Transports looking sickly with $650+ diesel.

Copper - rise continues as global growth is still...growing

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Fed - changed directions. Will history repeat like in Sept 2024 only in an inverse way?

GDP - Atlanta Fed see 5.1%! Acceleration. That'd be best since Q4 2021.

When compared to capex, Dividends are rising faster than in the late 1990s...the golden era.

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Fed Day! Hike is likely

Oil Futures Curve - steep backwardation suggests oil settles down

Global debt - socialist style governments are paying the price

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Postioning - still looks like people are not hiding

Short term risks - CTAs

Gold - does not like high rates. But gold NOT ripping is NOT a signal that stocks are in trouble.

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Bonds - failing to provide diversification from stock moves

Rates - not stopping yet!

VIX - Ready to fail at trend?!

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Is this bubble good? Have we seen anything like this before? Yes!
Dr Copper saying global growth is just fine
Rates - Fed meets next week and even though markets are betting they raise rates...I say they won't.

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Risks Rising?
Volatility waking up?
Japan - rates and Yen keep rising. Yes carry trade risks
Oil...still moving on momentum. $108 strong resistance

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1.) US DOLLAR = Weak...no flight to safety, no rate hike
2.) SENTIMENT - no euphoria. AAII Bull ratio looks constructive
3.) OIL- Tankers moving thru the Strait?

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Debt - NOT a fleeing from US debt. This is a repricing of soverign solvency risk
Oil - probably headed higher as WTI, Brent breakouts...now Shanghai futures above Brent. China a buyer again?
Zoom out. Markets look fine

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Debt - NOT a fleeing from US debt. This is a repricing of soverign solvency risk
Oil - probably headed higher as WTI, Brent breakouts...now Shanghai futures above Brent. China a buyer again?
Zoom out. Markets look fine

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POSITIONING in markets is what matters. You see euphoria? Nope
Rates - rising everywhere..not just in US. Inflation AND growth tend to come hand in hand.
GDP - Atlanta Fed pushing GDP estimates higher

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Be a contrarian...you'll live longer
Too many shorts in the system to see a -10% correction
Valuations - market is NOT expensive

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Yields - saying something...just not what they have been
Bonds NOT doing their job
Bitcoin...getting closer to that bear market bottom

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credit spreads saying everything is ok
US Dollar still in a downward bias confirming everything is still ok
KOSPI - South Korea - telling us that demand is still good.

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