Zhang Financial Podcast

The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at its meeting last week, though markets are pricing in a 72% chance of a hike at the December meeting. The S&P fell 0.56% last week, dragged down by tech stocks - the Magnificent 7 equal-weighted index alone dropped 2.61%. International equities were mixed as the YTD outperformance of emerging markets continues to dwindle.

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Such offers can only be made where lawful...

In this week's Zhang Financial Market Outlook Podcast, Rob outlines a week that released little economic data and mixed corporate earnings results. With 24% of S&P 500 companies having reported third-quarter earnings, 83% of them have exceeded analyst expectations - above the 5 and 10 year average of 78% and 77% respectively. However, the magnitude of earnings has been more modest, with reported earnings exceeding estimates by an average of 2.1%, which is well below the 5-year average of 7.5%, and the 10-year average of 8%.

U.S. Large cap and growth equities in the US declined over the week with the S&P 500 falling 0.46%, and...

Inflation data came in above expectations amid rising oil prices, and fears regarding debt issued by AI companies surfaced again. The Atlanta Federal Reserve, nonetheless, is still projecting 3.6% GDP growth in Q3 2026. Markets fell for the most part, with growth stocks in particular bearing the bulk of the decline. The S&P 500 fell 1.94%, the Nasdaq dropped 4.5%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was down 11%.

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Such offers...

Inflation expectations eased last week, further decreasing the probability of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this month. Investors, however, are still expecting a hike at the December meeting. Rising rates have put pressure on small cap stocks, whose YTD returns (+14.1%) have fallen below the S&P 500 (+15.1%), despite leading the index earlier this year. Emerging markets continue to outperform, with YTD returns of +22.7%.

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security...

Economic data released last week was mixed: Q2 GDP was revised up and PCE inflation came in better than expected, while personal income was below expectations and the 10-year US Treasury yields hit their highest level since July 2007. Markets sank overall, with the S&P 500 falling 0.25% and international markets (both developed and emerging) decreasing over 1%. However, this mixed data has pushed expectations for another interest rate hike from October to December.

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or...

Despite geopolitical volatility, the US has seen steady GDP growth year-to-date, rising 2.1% in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2. Corporate earnings have grown healthily, and S&P valuations hold close to their 10-year averages. Elsewhere, Treasury yields have risen, largely due to US National Debt and a "crowding out" from AI hyperscalers issuing bonds for data center buildouts.

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Such offers can only be made where lawful under...

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates 0.25% in a widely expected move. Chairman Kevin Warsh gave little forward guidance regarding future rate hikes, but more are expected before the end of the year. The S&P 500 was relatively flat last week, while international developed markets fell 1.5%. Emerging markets landed in the middle, dropping 0.6%.

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Such offers can only be made where lawful under applicable law. These materials...

Both domestic and international equities tumbled last week as the US Federal Reserve is poised to increase interest rates in the following days. Small cap stocks were hit the hardest, dropping 2.2% last week alone. Markets are pricing in 97% odds of at least one hike by year-end, and 48% odds of at least two.

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Such offers can only be made where lawful under applicable law. These materials...

Nonfarm payroll data released last week far exceeded expectations; the 162,000 jobs added topped the 58,000 expectation by a substantial margin. However, this cautioned investors as it raised the expectations of an interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve's next meeting. Markets were mostly flat on the week, with the S&P scraping out a small gain of +0.13%. 

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Such offers can only be made where lawful under a...

After hearing from Chair Kevin Warsh, investors are increasingly pricing in the chance of an interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve's meeting in September. There is now only a 12% probability of no rate hikes, and an 88% chance of at least one hike by the end of 2026. The S&P 500 rose 0.5% last week, while Small Cap stocks (which are more sensitive to rates) fell 1.5%. International markets, both developed and emerging, were flat for the week.

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an...

Economic releases were minimal last week and thus had little market impact. The US Treasury announced increased buybacks of long-term obligations to stabilize yields. As a result, funds migrated to Gold and Bitcoin, which rose 4.5% and 22.4%, respectively. Equity markets fell in the US and abroad, with the exception of Emerging Markets. Emerging Markets continue to outperform other asset classes YTD, currently +24.2%.

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Such offers can only...

Inflation metrics met expectations in data released last week, while consumer spending pulled back during July: expectations of +0.1% month-over-month were met with a reality of -0.6%. However, markets rose, with the S&P 500 climbing 0.4% over the week. YTD performance sits at +14.5%, roughly equivalent to the International Developed index's +15% return. The top performers, however, continue to be the Russell 2000 and Emerging Markets, which have gained +24.5% and +22.7% YTD, respectively.

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an...

Nonfarm payrolls were expected to come in at +91,000 for July, but ended up at -23,000. Earnings season continues, with the majority of S&P 500 companies having reported Q2 results, and those reporting have beaten expectations by almost 11%. The S&P rose 3.6% last week, on the solid earnings. The index now sits at +14.1% YTD, mirroring the International Developed index, which also shows +14.1% growth since January.

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Such...

The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged, holding them at the target range of 3.5%-3.75%. Q2 GDP growth came in at +1.5%; the Atlanta Federal Reserve is forecasting a much larger figure for Q3 at 5% growth. Markets had a strong week, with the S&P 500, International developed, and emerging markets all rising over 1%. Emerging markets continue to lead the pack year-to-date, sitting at +20%.

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Such offers can only...

Inflation expectations rose last week, largely driven by oil prices due to renewed activity in Iran. The Federal Reserve meets this week, and there is a 36% chance of an interest rate hike. US markets fell slightly (-0.6%), dragged down by the Magnificent 7, which dropped 5.4% alone. Emerging markets continue to lead performance YTD at +17.3%, compared to the S&P 500's ~9% YTD gain.

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Such offers can only...

Inflation metrics and consumer sentiment both came in better than expected last week, and the Atlanta Fed raised its Q2 GDP estimate. However, Chinese companies announced new AI models, which dragged down semiconductor stocks in the US and abroad. The S&P 500 fell 1.6%, but emerging markets, which have a large exposure to semiconductor-heavy Taiwan and South Korea, dropped 4.1%.

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Such offers can only be made where...

Economic data releases were rather light last week, but initial jobless claims slightly beat expectations. The Federal Reserve meets in a few weeks, and odds for some form of interest rate increase by year-end continue to climb. The "Magnificent 7" powered the S&P 500's positive week, as the index rose 1.4%. In contrast, international equities fell, including both developed and emerging markets.

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Such offers can only...

The S&P 500 rose 1.2% last week as the Magnificent 7 rebounded. International developed holds a slight edge in YTD performance at +11% compared to the S&P's +10%. Emerging markets, however, still outshine both at +24% YTD. The Federal Reserve meets this month, and there is a 22% probability of a rate hike. However, there is a much higher chance, 77%, of at least one rate hike by the end of the year.

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy...

Multiple economic data points came in better than expected, including initial jobless claims, personal income, and personal spending. Despite this positivity, markets were negative last week, particularly in the growth and large cap sectors. The S&P 500 dropped almost 2%, while the Magnificent 7 equal-weight index was down 5.7%. The equal-weight S&P 500 is now outperforming its market-weighted counterpart by almost 4% year-to-date.

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Such offers can...

The Atlanta Federal Reserve decreased its Q2 GDP forecast from 3.3% back down to 3%. The Fed kept rates steady at its June meeting, but markets are pricing in a 42% probability of a hike in July and a 90% probability of at least one hike by the end of 2026. The S&P 500 climbed ~1% last week, now +10.2% YTD. This tops international developed markets, sitting at +9.4%. However, emerging markets continue to outperform both, rising 4.15% last week alone, reaching +28.3% YTD.

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or...

The Atlanta Federal Reserve increased its Q2 GDP forecast from 3% to 3.3%, and the FOMC will meet next week for the first time under new Chair Kevin Warsh. No interest rate movement is expected. The S&P crept up 0.15% this week, despite the magnificent 7 dropping 2.4%. Year-to-date, the equal-weighted S&P 500 has outperformed the standard (market-weighted) S&P 500. 

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Such offers can only be made where lawful under a...

Better-than-anticipated economic numbers came out last week, led by non-farm payrolls nearly doubling expectations (+172,000 actual vs. +96,000 expected). This led markets to price in a lower chance of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, and instead potentially raising them later this year. Markets tumbled as a result, with the S&P 500 losing 2.55% on the week. International markets fell too, but by a smaller margin.

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Such offers...

Economic indicators were mixed last week, with PCE coming in better than expected while initial jobless claims and personal income fared worse than anticipated. Still, the S&P 500 rose 1.44% as growth outperformed value. Additionally, international markets continued to climb, with emerging markets gaining 4% last week alone. Emerging markets are now up 25.6% YTD, despite the drag from underperforming Chinese equities.

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Such offers can...

Anticipation for a potential end to the war in Iran caused inflation expectations to drop, and the Atlanta Fed raised it Q2 GDP forecast from +4% to +4.3%. Interest rate hikes, rather than cuts, are expected by the end of the year; however, no change is expected at the next meeting in June. The S&P rose 0.91% last week, driven by small-cap and non-Magnificent 7 companies. International markets performed well, as both developed and emerging indexes climbed over 1% last week alone. 

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an o...

A few weeks ago, markets were anticipating an 80% chance of no interest rate changes for the rest of 2026. That has since dropped to 49%, paired with a 39% probability of one rate hike due to higher-than-expected inflation. US markets remained positive, with the S&P 500 rising 0.2% last week, now +8.7% YTD. This exceeds developed international markets, sitting at +6% YTD, but still trails emerging markets at +19.5%.

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Such offers can...

Non-farm payrolls landed at 115,000, exceeding the predicted 73,000. 89% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q1 earnings, and 84% of those have beaten expectations. Moreover, the average outperformance is 18.2%; this caused the index to rise 2.4% last week, and it is now +8.5% YTD. However, international markets continue to outperform, with emerging markets up +6.9% last week alone and +22.5% YTD.

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Such offers can only be made where lawful under applicable law...

Q1 GDP grew at 2%, beating expectations of 1.3%. The Atlanta Federal Reserve is expecting a strong Q2 as well, projecting 3.5% growth. Interest rates remained unchanged, with markets pricing in a 77% probability of no rate movement through the end of 2026. The S&P 500 rose 0.9% as earnings impressed investors : 84% of S&P companies that have reported have beaten expectations, on average by over 20%.

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Such offers can only be...

Slower-than-expected PPI data and a robust start to the earnings season, where 88% of companies have beaten estimates, pushed the S&P 500 up 4.55% last week. Markets are pricing in a 51% probability of no rate changes this year, and the Atlanta Federal Reserve is forecasting 1.3% growth for Q1 GDP.

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Such offers can only be made where lawful under applicable law. These materials have been prepared and derived...

In this week's Zhang Financial market outlook, Rob details last week's release of economic data, with all eyes on inflation. The 10-year inflation expectation sits at 2.36%, showing markets are viewing the Iran War's impact on energy prices, and its inflationary effects, as transitory. Stocks reacted positively last week, with the S&P 500 rising 3.6%. International markets, however, continued to outperform: international developed markets gained 4.2%, and emerging markets climbed 7.5%.

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy...

In this week's Zhang Financial market outlook, Rob recaps a week of better-than-expected economic data, from new jobless claims to unemployment rate. The Federal Reserve currently projects Q1 GDP growth at 1.6%, and a rate cut at its April meeting is not expected. The S&P 500 rose 1.65%, largely driven by the Magnificent 7. Outside the US, international developed markets climbed 2.1%, while emerging markets fell 0.9%. However, emerging markets still have the best year-to-date performance at +2.5%.

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation...

In this week's Zhang Financial market outlook, Rob highlights shifting rate expectations and continued market pressure amid the ongoing conflict in Iran. Inflation expectations declined while Q1 GDP expectations were revised to 2.0%. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady in April, with fewer potential cuts priced in. Equity markets struggled, led by weakness in large-cap and growth, while small value outperformed. Looking ahead, a busy week of economic data is expected, highlighted by Friday’s jobs report, with payrolls projected to rebound and unemployment unchanged. 

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and edu...

In this week's Zhang Financial market outlook, Rob outlines a week of mixed economic data. Initial jobless claims came in slightly better than expected, but Q4 GDP was revised down from 1.4% to 0.7%. Markets fell, largely driven by the ongoing conflict in Iran. The S&P 500 was down 1.6%, now sitting at -2.9% YTD. International developed markets lost 6.3%, though they remain at +2.9% YTD.

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Such offers can only...

In this week's Zhang Financial market outlook, Rob covers the prior week's economic and geopolitical news. Inflation expectations climbed as oil prices rose in response to the US and Israel attacking Iran. The conflict also dampened markets : the S&P 500 dropped 2% during the week, international developed markets fell 6.3%, and emerging markets were down over 7%.

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Such offers can only be made where lawful under applicable law...

In this week's Zhang Financial market outlook, Rob recaps a week of tame stock market activity, with the S&P rising 0.4%. The Magnificent 7 continue to underperform the broader market, and international equities have persisted in topping the US market YTD, similar to 2025. Ahead, the Federal Reserve meets at the end of March, and no rate change is expected.

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Such offers can only be made where...

In this week's Zhang Financial market Outlook, Rob recaps a week of economic announcements that started off strong but struggled near the end of the week. Q4 GDP growth was released at 1.4%, well below the Atlanta Federal Reserve estimate of 4.2%. The Supreme Court struck down President Trump's current tariffs, but the administration will likely pursue other legal avenues to enforce its tariff plans. Despite the news, domestic and international markets both rose approx. 1% on the week.

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to...

In this week's Zhang Financial Market Outlook, Rob covers a week of mostly positive economic news, aside from labor markets. Initial jobless claims came in worse than expected. Despite that, consumer sentiment beat expectations and the ISM Manufacturing Index was positive. US markets were flat on the week, but the equal-weight S&P 500 rose 2.14%. International markets grew slightly, while emerging markets dropped over 1%

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Such offers...

In this week's Zhang Financial Market Outlook, Rob reviews the past week of economic data, which was dominated by the US Federal Reserve. The Fed kept interest rates steady, which was largely expected, but their Q4 GDP estimate was revised down from 5.4% to 4.2%. Finally, President Trump revealed Kevin Warsh as his planned nominee for the next Fed Chair: stocks were flat, but gold and silver dropped by 9% and 20%, respectively, on the news.

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation...

In this week's Zhang Financial Market Outlook, Rob covers the inflation data and initial jobless claims that beat expectations, as well as the Atlanta Federal Reserve upping their Q4 GDP estimate from 5.1% to 5.3%. While the S&P 500 finished down 0.5% for the week, the equal-weight S&P 500 finished up 0.5%, showing a broadening of market gains away from just the Magnificent 7 stocks.

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Such offers can only be...

In this week's Zhang Financial Market Outlook, Rob recaps a week that contained mixed economic data, but the market reacted favorably. Any information coming in below expectations fueled predictions that the Federal Reserve will cut rates multiple times in 2026. The S&P 500 rose almost 1.5%, but the Russell 2000, consisting of small cap companies that stand to benefit from additional rate cuts, was up 4.6%

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Such offers can...

In this week's Zhang Financial Market Outlook, Rob covers a week of light economic data amid the holidays. The S&P 500 finished 2025 up 17.9%, while developed International markets finished the year up 31.9%. Looking ahead, there is an 18% chance of an interest rate cut in January; however, investors anticipate a 95% probability of 2+ rate cuts by the end of 2026.

Disclosures:
These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Such offers can only be made where lawful under...