The Market Screener

Mea culpa, I was too quick to declare the rebound over yesterday. As it turned out, U.S. stocks extended Monday's gains on Tuesday, supported by encouraging corporate earnings and a pullback in oil prices, even as concerns about artificial intelligence continued to weigh on some major tech stocks. SpaceX and Super Micro Computer are boosting the Nasdaq 100 early in the session today.

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Yesterday's rebound in tech stocks proved as fleeting as Katie Zacharia's stint as press secretary. Actually, even more so. The rally is already losing steam: Nasdaq futures were down around 0.6% in premarket trading, while S&P 500 futures were off 0.2%.

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Wall Street is trying to recover from its worst week since June, but the problems behind the selloff remain unsolved. Have companies spent too much, too recklessly on AI? Investors are eagerly awaiting this week's earnings to get some answers.

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I don't know about you, but I feel like this market is becoming harder and harder to read! One day, investors are buying the dip, the next day they're like, Never Catch a Falling Knife! Optimism gives way to anxiety, and then back again, sometimes without any real catalyst.

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Who's gonna foot the bill for all the AI infrastructure? US stocks are sharply down as growing concerns about how artificial intelligence investments will be financed weigh on sentiment. Higher-than-expected September inflation data acted as a trigger yesterday: the S&P 500 ended the session 1.1% lower, and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 2%, though the Dow Jones held up better, slipping just 0.09%. Today's PPI isn't helping.

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As i mentioned in a previous column, Wall Street has embraced the idea that high interest rates are a sign of economic strength - after spending months complaining about them. However, this assumption could be questioned if today's inflation report shows that prices continue to increase. Meanwhile, earnings season is picking up pace, and the old economy is striking back.

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The market's main sources of optimism, AI and corporate earnings, are being seriously tested. An AI selloff is spreading from Asia to Europe and to the US, while strong bank earnings fail to generate much enthusiasm.

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Wall Street has convinced itself that sky-high interest rates are actually good news. Has investor optimism turned into outright delusion? This week's earnings and inflation figures will put that theory to the test, while soaring oil prices and geopolitical tensions threaten to bring investors crashing back to reality.

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This morning, a number of stocks are pulling back from yesterday's selloff, while others are struggling for reasons that have nothing to do with the general market performance. It looks like the party is over, with companies now having to show that their ambitions can withstand a meeting with financial reality.

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Wall Street has spent weeks defying expectations, with stocks climbing despite punishing borrowing costs. But the real threat may be coming from oil. A barrel is back above $105 today as tensions escalate, and if prices keep rising, Wall Street's remarkable resilience could finally crack.

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Wall Street is breaking records, but the celebrations are becoming more and more exclusive. The large companies are making a profit, which is sufficient to ignore the harsh bond yields. But smaller stocks, long-duration assets and highly indebted businesses are being left behind. Can an index remain this healthy when so much of what lies beneath it is not?

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Wall Street seems to be getting its groove back today: oil prices are dropping, Treasury yields have pulled back, albeit slightly, from their most recent highs, and the artificial-intelligence sector is still strong enough to drive the Nasdaq to record levels. Stocks and bond yields are still climbing in tandem, supported by the strength of the US economy.

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This week, the most important question for the markets is whether the U.S. economy is becoming weak enough to relieve some pressure on the Fed without causing serious harm to corporate profits. Friday's jobs report changed that debate a lot. Meanwhile, political risk is becoming a major market force.

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Growth has proved to be better than had been anticipated, but the most recent employment data shows that the labour market is not as strong as it seemed just a few hours ago.

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Investors face a rather unusual situation at the start of October: the economy appears to be strong enough to underpin corporate profits, but at the same time, perhaps too strong to ease the burden of high borrowing costs.

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This morning, the Fed received a complicated set of U.S. economic data, which showed that inflation had been softer than expected but growth has been considerably stronger.

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With only two sessions left in September, a month investors tend to dislike, the S&P 500 is nearly back to where it was at the start of the month. It has still risen by 12.2% this year, an impressive performance given the challenges markets have faced.

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The economic calendar should usually be sufficient to keep investors occupied. On Wednesday the Federal Reserve's favored inflation indicator is released, with the September jobs report coming up on Friday. Together, these two figures should help establish whether or not the Fed really needs to increase rates again in October. Yet once again the markets are going through every calculation via the Strait of Hormuz.

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Artificial intelligence is doing much of the heavy lifting right now. The Nasdaq 100 has gained more than 5% over the past month. The Russell 2000, home to smaller American companies that depend much more heavily on borrowing conditions and domestic demand, has fallen about 5%. That roughly 10-point gap over such a short period is uncommon.

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The American economy keeps refusing to slow down, which would be easier to celebrate if borrowing money were getting cheaper. Instead, Thursday begins with the 30-year Treasury yield at its highest since 2004 and oil back above $100 a barrel. That is the uncomfortable backdrop to today's meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at the White House.

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Wall Street has been buying into two appealing ideas: AI will deliver extraordinary growth, and diplomacy will bring down energy costs. Wednesday is testing the second assumption. Oil is back above $100, Treasury yields are climbing, and the latest tech rally faces a familiar obstacle: expensive money.

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Two possible diplomatic breakthroughs are competing for Wall Street attention on Tuesday. One could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and pull oil prices lower. The other could extend the fragile trade truce between the United States and China. Either would be welcome, although investors have learned to treat promising headlines involving Donald Trump as opening bids rather than final agreements.

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This week gives investors three things they have been waiting for: cheaper oil, calmer bonds, and a meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. None amounts to a breakthrough yet, but after several weeks dominated by war and inflation, even tentative diplomacy is enough to improve the mood.

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Central banks have reassured investors that they are still willing to fight inflation. Now the market must deal with the reason they had to prove it.

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Wall Street entered Wednesday battered by five declines in six sessions and facing a Fed decision that looks certain right up until it happens. A rate increase is largely priced in, but the harder questions are not: whether Kevin Warsh plans to keep tightening, whether the bond market will settle down, and how long expensive money can coexist with America's costly AI boom. Cheaper oil offered some relief, while fresh economic data, tariff talks with China, and conflict in the Middle East kept the list of possible problems impressively well stocked. Investors may know what they expect at 2 p...

The most important number in Tuesday's market is 5%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury crossed that threshold, reaching 5.041%, its highest level since 2007, before settling near 5.03%. That does more than make mortgages and corporate loans more expensive. It forces investors to reconsider how much they should pay for nearly everything.

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Three central-bank decisions, oil above $108 a barrel and a sudden outbreak of caution among the most powerful figures in artificial intelligence will give investors plenty to digest this week. The economic calendar may be quiet on Monday, but the markets certainly are not.

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Oil remains above $100, Treasury yields are flirting with 5%, and the Federal Reserve now looks increasingly likely to raise rates next week. August inflation data, released a few minutes ago, did nothing to ease the pressure: it actually gave policymakers more reasons to act.

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Scott Bessent's attempt to calm the bond market has so far produced an awkward result: borrowing costs have risen further. The Treasury secretary is effectively arguing that investors are charging the United States too much to borrow. Bondholders have reached a different conclusion. They see persistent budget deficits, a growing debt burden, stubborn inflation and an economy strong enough to tolerate higher interest rates. If Washington wants their money, they would like better compensation. The latest PPI reading gives them another reason to demand it.

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Oil is back above $100, turning an energy shock into an inflation threat, a bond-market headache and, increasingly, a political liability for the White House. Today's session is being shaped by the possibility that all three could get worse at once.

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Brent crude is again flirting with $100 a barrel, forcing investors to confront a problem they thought would be contained by now. The war with Iran is entering its seventh month, inflation is still unsettled and the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates next week.

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Christopher Waller bought investors some relief. America's labor market has now put it to the test.

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Six months into a conflict that was supposed to be brief, Iran is proving more durable than Washington's forecasts, oil is back near $95 and traders are betting on a Fed rate increase. Add jumpy bonds, a strengthening yen and an earnings season in which even Broadcom can disappoint, and Wall Street has plenty to worry about. Snowflake's surge at least gives investors a little hope.

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The most important number in markets today is 4.8%. That's roughly where the 10-year Treasury yield stands after climbing to its highest level since November 2023. It is getting dangerously close to 5%, a psychological threshold that tends to unsettle investors.

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The first trading day of September is delivering a blunt message: Governments, companies and investors all compete for the same money. When public borrowing becomes more expensive, almost everything else begins to look less attractive.

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The first week of September will test whether the stock market's strong year can withstand a less friendly mix of inflation, higher interest rates and renewed conflict in the Middle East. Investors will also get a crucial U.S. jobs report and earnings from some of the biggest beneficiaries of the technology spending boom.

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Friday's session opens in New York with some degree of tension. Kevin Warsh is about to remind them that even excellent companies such as Nvidia must live with interest rates.

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Nvidia has once again given investors what they wanted: spectacular growth, a confident forecast and fresh evidence that demand for artificial-intelligence computing remains stronger than the industry's ability to supply it. The stock climbed as much as 7% before Thursday's opening bell, helping Nasdaq 100 futures rise roughly 0.9%, while S&P 500 futures gained 0.4%.

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Two events shape Wednesday's session. The first, the latest batch of economic data, has now delivered a mixed inflation reading. The second, Nvidia's results, comes after the closing bell. Can inflation ease without damaging growth? Can artificial intelligence keep producing the extraordinary expansion already reflected in technology valuations?

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Technology stocks are attempting to recover after Monday's semiconductor selloff, with Nvidia, Meta, Micron, Western Digital and Sandisk all gaining early in the session. But this is less a confident rebound than a cautious return to the scene of the accident. Investors are willing to buy the dip: they would simply like Nvidia to justify it first.

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