Moving Markets

Markets reacted cautiously after the US granted Iran a temporary 60‑day licence to sell oil in USD. Euro area consumer confidence remained weak in June, and pressure on Hermès weighed on luxury stocks. In the UK, Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation adds to a decade of political instability, but markets stayed calm. ECB president Christine Lagarde said that the central bank doesn’t need to react more forcefully to the fallout from the Middle East conflict. In US equities, investors rotated out of large tech stocks into small caps. In Asia, speculation about USD/JPY intervention grew after talks b...

Progress in US–Iran talks in Switzerland helped ease geopolitical concerns. And while positive momentum in Asian tech lifted regional markets, European and US equity futures have started the week on a more cautious footing. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, takes a closer look at the current trend in the S&P 500, shares his view on the ‘Magnificent Seven’, and outlines which segment of the US market he expects to outperform.

Against a shifting macro backdrop, markets are responding to easing geopolitical tensions following a US-Iran peace deal, with oil prices falling sharply and Asian equities rallying. Within China, however, a stark divergence persists: Hong Kong’s “old tech” sector has lagged, while mainland “new tech,” particularly AI infrastructure, continues to attract strong inflows and outperform.

In this episode, Richard Tang speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management, about China’s uneven market outlook. They discuss the prospects for a rebound in Hong Kong internet stocks, the sustainability of the AI rally and sig...

Global markets have been driven this week by a US–Iran deal, a more hawkish Fed under Kevin Warsh, and a Bank of Japan rate hike to multi-decade highs. Markets are now pricing in further US policy tightening, with record Treasury futures volumes signalling strong expectations for rate rises. Equities were mixed yesterday, with early weakness offset by gains in semiconductor stocks. Central banks remain in focus, as the Bank of England held rates and the Swiss National Bank maintained ultra-loose policy amid low inflation. Oil fell below USD 80 on improved supply. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva, hi...

European equities extended their upward momentum, while US markets faced selling pressure after the first FOMC meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a surprisingly hawkish tone, pushing Treasury yields higher. Yet, sentiment later shifted again as news of a signed memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran lifted Asian markets and drove US equity futures firmly into positive territory. In today’s episode, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, explores how easing geopolitical tensions could reshape the outlook for global energy markets.

SpaceX moves beyond rockets with its acquisition of AI firm Anysphere, igniting investor excitement and propelling the company to become the world’s fifth-most valuable after its blockbuster IPO. As technology and geopolitics continue to reshape markets, attention now turns to today’s FOMC decision and Kevin Warsh’s first press conference as Fed Chair. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, outlines what to expect from the Fed, while Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, discusses the impact of mega-IPOs and a potential US–Iran deal on equity markets, as well as how investors should position portfolios for the...

Markets rallied strongly yesterday as easing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran lifted risk sentiment, with European equities reaching fresh record highs and US indices surging across the board. Optimism was driven by a framework agreement pointing towards a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, although uncertainty remains around the timeline and terms. Oil prices fell sharply, while gold moved higher amid softer rate expectations and a weaker dollar. Overnight, central banks remained in focus, with the Bank of Japan delivering its first rate hike since 1995, while weak macro data out of China reinforced concerns about slowing...

Yesterday, the US and Iran agreed to the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon. The deal is set to be signed on Friday and still allows for a 60-day window to negotiate issues around Iran’s nuclear program. Evidently some details are still to be ironed out, but equity and bond markets have reacted positively, with Asia trading higher this morning and futures pointing to a higher opening globally today. Added to this, the price of oil has already dropped more than 4% and gold has climbed 3%. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, pr...

As global markets adjust to a world where capital is no longer abundant, investors face new challenges and opportunities. How should they adapt their portfolios, and what are the most compelling prospects for the second half of 2026?
 
Christian Gattiker, Head of Research at Julius Baer, and Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, join Bernadette Anderko to discuss Julius Baer’s mid-year market outlook. The conversation dissects the shift from a savings glut to a savings grab, and focuses on why selectivity and capital discipline are paramount. Mark and Christian explain the outlook for equities and fixed income, inv...

President Trump halted strikes on Iran yesterday and announced that a peace deal will be signed imminently. Markets reacted accordingly, with oil prices falling and equities rallying. Chip stocks contributed to the rally in both the US and Asia overnight. Even US Treasuries held on to their gains, as markets lowered their bets on a Fed rate hike in October from 51% to 36%. SpaceX raised USD 75 billion, pricing itsshares at USD 135 – its debut will be a big focus later today. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Sales in Geneva, joined today’s podcast for his weekly take on all things currency and...

While European markets proved more resilient, US equities declined amid renewed escalation in the Middle East and fresh inflation data highlighting mounting pressure on US household budgets, driven in part by higher energy costs. In today’s episode, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, shares his outlook on gold and silver in this environment. We also hear from Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, who previews the European Central Bank’s upcoming rate decision and discusses the implications for investors.

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Markets saw a cautious session yesterday, as investors remained on edge amid ongoing Middle East uncertainty, with both European and US equities ending broadly lower. Overnight, tensions escalated sharply, with US strikes on Iran followed by retaliatory actions across the Gulf, placing further strain on an already fragile ceasefire. Despite these developments, oil prices remained relatively contained. Macro data painted a mixed but broadly stable picture, with solid US housing demand, a sharply narrowing trade deficit, and modest growth signals from Europe. In Asia, rising producer prices in China and Japan highlighted ongoing cost pressures, keeping central banks in...

European equities closed off their lows as oil reversed most of its early 5% gain after easing Middle East tensions, leaving Brent near USD 94. Weak German factory orders weighed on sentiment, while stocks diverged, with Zealand Pharma down 23% and Banca Monte dei Paschi up 13% on takeover news. In the US, technology led gains as chip stocks rebounded, though sentiment softened after Apple’s developer conference. Strong demand for SpaceX’s IPO and OpenAI’s filing point to a solid pipeline. Asian markets followed the tech rebound, led by Korea and Japan, while Hong Kong lagged and China reported stronger-than-expected trade data...

The market reaction to Friday’s better-than-expected US jobs report started bad and got worse. The Nasdaq closed down 4.2%, marking its steepest decline since April 2025, following ‘Liberation Day’. The sell-off spread to Asia this morning, where investors slammed the brakes on the red-hot AI rally. South Korea’s KOSPI fell by more than 8%, triggering circuit breakers. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why he thinks the latest weakness in tech is a well-deserved pause, and why gold is on the watch list.

The role of a Chief Investment Officer is multifaceted – acting as both the guardian and the architect of a company’s investment process, and preventing people from making mistakes that might destroy value. A key requisite for the job is the ability to stay calm amid the panic when a global crisis hits.

In this special edition of The View Beyond, produced jointly with the World Economic Forum's Radio Davos, Bernadette Anderko and WEF Editor Robin Pomeroy sit down with Julius Baer's Group CIO Yves Bonzon to explore the history and nature of recent crises. Yves has spen...

Markets delivered a mixed session yesterday, driven by geopolitical tensions, a sharp semiconductor sell-off following Broadcom’s disappointing results, and steady macro data from Switzerland and the US. Oil remained driven by developments in the Middle East, while gold fluctuated alongside moves in the dollar and bond yields. European equities closed higher despite lingering uncertainty, while the US showed a clear divergence: the Dow reached a record high, supported by defensive stocks, as tech weakness weighed on the Nasdaq. In Asia, the rotation out of tech continued, pressuring chip-heavy markets such as South Korea and Japan, with broader sentiment re...

The S&P 500 snapped its nine-day winning streak yesterday, as renewed tensions in the Middle East dented risk sentiment, and momentum in the AI-driven rally eased. At the same time, bond yields pushed higher on the back of resilient labour market data, reigniting concerns that inflation pressures may persist. In today’s episode, our Group CIO Yves Bonzon shares his latest perspectives on the market backdrop, while Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, explains why he expects oil prices to trend lower from here.

AI fever is fuelling a fresh wave of market excitement, with soaring valuations and high-profile endorsements pointing to the next potential trillion-dollar tech company. With major players doubling down on artificial intelligence, investor confidence remains resilient despite rising eurozone inflation and mounting expectations of another ECB rate hike. Meanwhile, Afonso Borges from our Fixed Income Research team makes the case for UK gilts amid shifting bond dynamics, while Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research, explores the broadening strength in emerging market equities and explains why it’s not only about tech.

Markets were mixed yesterday, with Middle East tensions driving a sharp rise in oil and weighing on sentiment. European equities edged lower, while all three major US indices reached fresh highs, supported by strong momentum in AI-linked names. Macro data showed a divided backdrop — resilient manufacturing in Asia, slowing growth and rising cost pressures in the Eurozone, modest but improving trends in Switzerland, and solid momentum in the US. Today, we were joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who provided a deep-dive into cybersecurity, highlighting the sector’s remarkable rebound and why it is becoming increasingly miss...

US equity indices closed the week at new record highs, topping off a winning month as tech stocks once again provided the momentum. Despite no agreement emerging between the US and Iran, and indeed continued strikes over the weekend, many of Asia’s key indices also saw gains this morning with the Kospi and Nikkei 225 soaring to new heights. It’s therefore timely that Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins the podcast today to discuss his thoughts on whether US equities are now overbought; why a previous laggard sub-sector might now help drive the IT sector even higher, and...

After a period of relative calm, gold has re-emerged as a focal point for investors amid geopolitics, shifting central bank strategies, and evolving global demand. How should investors interpret gold’s recent volatility, and what does the outlook hold as we move through 2026?

In this episode of Julius Baer’s Moving Markets:The View Beyond, Ayako Lehmann is joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, and Chris Irwin, Head of FX and Precious Metals Trading Asia at Julius Baer, to discuss the drivers behind gold’s remarkable run, the impact of central bank activity, and the ch...

US equities surged to record highs on optimism over a potential US–Iran ceasefire extension, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all closing at all-time highs yesterday. Oil prices fell sharply and are on track for their steepest monthly decline since March 2020. US economic data was mixed, pointing to slowing growth and increasing pressure on household finances. Technology remained the primary market driver, with strong gains in AI and tech stocks contrasting with weak momentum in Bitcoin. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva, highlights gold being at critical levels, the continued attractiveness of the AUD, and persistently lo...

Oil prices are swinging on every twist in the Middle East, while AI continues to dominate global markets. Europe’s stocks are under pressure from high energy costs, but in the US, AI momentum is driving major indices to fresh record highs. In today’s episode, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, dives into copper, and why electrification is set to shape markets for years to come.

Global equities extended their record rally as momentum in technology shares accelerated and geopolitical tensions eased. Micron and SK Hynix have joined the USD 1 trillion market-capitalisation club, fuelled by surging demand for AI chips. This milestone underscores the growing dominance of semiconductor companies in global markets, with ripple effects from Seoul to Silicon Valley. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why he expects this momentum to continue and shares compelling statistics on IPO returns ahead of the landmark SpaceX listing.

Despite US consumer confidence falling to a record low, the S&P 500 extended gains last week, driven by semiconductors, as AI enthusiasm remains strong and crowded. Global equities also advanced, led by Europe and Japan. Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair, while Governor Waller emphasised inflation risks. Middle East tensions remain volatile, with shifting ceasefire prospects, US military action, and moves in oil, gold, and bonds. This week, focus turns to US PCE inflation, growth data, and key geopolitical meetings in Asia. Damian Ng, Next Generation Research, talks about why the recent outbreak of the Ebola virus...

The petrodollar system has long been a cornerstone of global finance, underpinning the US dollar’s dominance for decades. But as energy markets shift, and talk of de-dollarisation grows louder, is this system now fading? And what could that mean for the future global order?

In this episode of The View Beyond, Jan Bopp is joined by Julius Baer’s currency strategist, David Meier, and Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro and Next Generation Research, to explore the origins and evolution of the petrodollar system, the impact of the US shale oil revolution, and the practical realities of de...

Markets remained choppy as weak PMI data across Europe and the UK signalled slowing growth, while US data painted a mixed but still resilient picture. Oil prices were volatile amid shifting headlines around Iran, underlining ongoing geopolitical sensitivity. Equities in both Europe and the US ended modestly higher despite intraday swings, with pockets of strength in sectors like satellites and quantum computing following fresh investment momentum. Overnight, softer inflation in Japan supported Asian markets, while US yields edged lower and the dollar held firm. Today, we were joined by Bence Boldvai from our FX & Precious Metals team, who shared...

European and US stock markets rallied yesterday after President Trump hinted that the US administration is in the final stages of an agreement to end the war with Iran. The 10-year US Treasury shaved 9 basis points off the previous session’s yield. Asian markets were further boosted overnight by an impressive set of results from NVIDIA. Warnings did come in from the Fed though, in the form of the minutes of its last meeting, which revealed a heightened level of disagreement about where rates should go next and a majority of participants highlighting that rates will need to rise if...

US markets dipped amid rising long-term bond yields, with the 30-year Treasury hitting the highest level in almost two decades fuelled by inflation fears and potential Fed tightening. Geopolitical tensions and key upcoming catalysts, including Nvidia’s earnings and FOMC minutes, keep investors on edge. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains what is behind the recent surge in bond yields and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, discusses the implications for equity markets and outlines his key message for the second half of the year.

Global equities are caught between hopes for a peace deal and rising Middle East tensions, with Brent fluctuating around USD 100 per barrel. In the US, strong market breadth contrasts with weakness in technology stocks, weighing on major equity indices. Japan and Switzerland posted stronger-than-expected Q1 growth, highlighting resilience despite geopolitical tensions and high oil prices. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, discusses India’s decision to double import duties on gold and silver.

Global markets are kicking off the week on the back foot as government bond yields surge to multi-year highs, reigniting concerns about stagflation. Oil prices climbed another 2% overnight, with no quick resolution in sight for the ongoing Middle East tensions. In today’s episode, we’re joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who shares his outlook on whether US 10-year Treasury yields could reach the 5% mark. He also explains why the rally in semiconductor stocks may be due for a pause – and why that might actually be a good thing.

Despite geopolitical tensions, US equity markets have reached record highs, with artificial intelligence at the heart of this surge. What is driving these historic moves? How are investors positioning themselves to both capture the opportunities and manage the risks? 

In this episode of The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, and Manuel Villegas, Co-Manager of the Julius Baer Next Generation Equity Fund. They explore the rapid development of AI, the unprecedented growth in data centre infrastructure, and the evolving dynamics of the global value chain. The d...

Markets were driven by headlines from the Trump–Xi summit in Beijing, where progress on trade and a surprise easing of US chip export restrictions to major Chinese tech firms lifted sentiment, particularly in technology. European equities closed higher and US indices reached fresh record highs, supported by strong earnings from Cisco, although gains in Asia faded as rising Treasury yields and renewed rate hike expectations weighed on sentiment. Corporate news was mixed, while Crypto-related stocks rallied following regulatory progress. Commodities showed divergence, with oil edging higher and metals softer. Overnight, Asian equities declined broadly, led by a sharp se...

Markets showed a broad risk-off tone on Tuesday, with equities weaker and bond yields moving higher. Oil prices surged as hopes for a US–Iran deal faded, stoking inflation concerns after stronger-than-expected US inflation data. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains the implications for bond markets and shares his view on UK gilts amid ongoing political turmoil. And Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategist, explains why he likes the Communications sector and highlights areas of strength and weakness within European equities.

European markets were weighed down by declines in the luxury sector yesterday, as concerns over weakening global demand dampened sentiment. In contrast, major US indices reached fresh record highs, led by strong gains in the technology sector. Meanwhile, oil prices are climbing again this morning amid signs that the Middle East ceasefire may be unravelling. Today, we are joined by Dr. Damien Ng from Next Generation Research, who will share his insights on the hantavirus outbreak and the role genomics and digital health tools are playing.

Strong earnings and resilient jobs data are prompting markets to rule out rate cuts this year. Semiconductor stocks continue to lead gains across the US and Asia, with South Korea and Japan hitting new highs, supported by AI investment. Inflation pressures reflected in China’s data release, rising oil prices amid a fragile Middle East ceasefire, and broader geopolitical risks remain in focus ahead of a busy week of data and events, including inflation releases from the US, Germany and Japan, the Trump–Xi meeting, the King’s Speech in the UK, and Kevin Warsh taking over the leadership at the...

Global equity markets have performed strongly, led by the AI-driven rally across the US, Japan, and Korea, while China’s headline indices have lagged in comparison. Yet beneath the surface, performance has been more nuanced, with parts of the market showing stronger momentum than index-level data suggests.

In this episode, Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management. They discuss why China’s markets have underperformed on the surface, whether traditional benchmarks are capturing the right parts of the economy, and...

Markets remained on edge as ongoing uncertainty around a potential US–Iran agreement drove a clear risk‑off tone. European equities moved broadly lower, while US indices pulled back after briefly touching record highs, weighed down by weakness in technology and semiconductors. Oil prices proved volatile but ultimately rebounded, with both Brent and WTI holding elevated levels, while gold edged higher. In fixed income, US yields ticked up as investors reassessed inflation risks linked to energy markets. Central banks painted a mixed picture, with Norway surprising to the upside on rates, while Sweden held steady. In Asia, markets were most...

Hopes grew yesterday that the US and Iran might be able to seal a deal to end the conflict, with a memorandum of understanding apparently having been sent by the US to Iran. The oil price dropped and with it so did bond yields. Meanwhile, global stock markets continued to rally and were given a further boost by artificial intelligence firms and yet more good news from earnings calls. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, joins the podcast to explain why he believes that the Strait of Hormuz may lose its strategic importance in the future, a...

Semiconductor stocks, from Intel to Samsung Electronics, are pushing US and Asian equities to new all‑time highs. Strong earnings from Anheuser‑Busch and Unicredit also lifted European markets. US services activity slowed in April, while inflation pressures stayed elevated. UK yields surged on inflation and fiscal concerns, Swiss data showed higher headline but subdued core inflation, and PMIs in China and India pointed to resilience. The JPY continues to strengthen after last week’s lows, likely reflecting FX intervention. Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research, notes while European earnings are rising, the momentum is weaker than in the US where...