Moving Markets

The recent US Supreme Court decision on tariffs has shifted the landscape for investors, replacing a patchwork of country-specific measures with a temporary universal tariff. What does this mean for markets overall, different countries and sectors, the US dollar and fixed income?

In this episode of Julius Baer’s Moving Markets – The View Beyond podcast, Helen Freer is joined by Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, to discuss the implications of the Supreme Court’s ruling against the tariffs implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act last year. The conversation covers the short-term reduction in uncertainty, the winner...

Major stock indices ended mostly lower after a two‑day rally. In the US, the Information Technology sector fell nearly 2%, weighed down by a 5.5% drop in Nvidia shares. In contrast, the equally weighted S&P 500 gained 0.6%. Treasury prices and gold edged higher as investors sought safe‑haven assets following the conclusion of US - Iran talks, which ended without any tangible progress. Today, we are joined by Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX Sales Switzerland, who shares his views on precious metals and alternatives for those looking to diversify beyond the US dollar.

Nvidia delivered results yesterday that beat analysts’ expectations but failed to cause more than a brief rally in extended trading. Nevertheless, US indices ended the day higher, with the Nasdaq Composite closing up 1.26%, and Asia’s tech-biased indices following suit. The Nikkei 225 breached 59,000 for the first time as the Takaichi trade continued.  Elsewhere investors await further tariff announcements from the US in the coming days. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, joins today’s show to explain why, despite rising geopolitical tensions, he believes that the trajectory for both oil and European natural gas prices will be...

US stocks rebounded yesterday led by technology shares after AI developments announced by Meta and Anthropic. Strong US economic data lifted the broader market and boosted small caps. In Europe, autos rose on lower‑than‑expected US tariffs, while banks fell. Taiwan and South Korea climbed on AI optimism, and Japan advanced after the Prime Minister nominated two reflation‑focused academics to the Bank of Japan’s policy board, fuelling expectations of slow rate increases and keeping the yen weak. Precious metals strengthened with gold and silver rising on geopolitical tensions, China’s market return, and continued safe-haven demand. Dario Mess...

Global markets were on edge yesterday as President Trump’s newly announced 15% global tariff triggered a sharp European response and fresh trade uncertainty. Equity markets across both Europe and the US struggled, with tech stocks hit particularly hard amid renewed concerns about AI disruption in the software sector. Defensive names, meanwhile, benefited from the flight to safety, alongside a strong move in gold. Asian markets painted a mixed picture. On today’s show, we are joined by Next Generation research analyst Damien Ng who shares an update on the implications of the emerging Alzheimer’s blood test and what it mea...

The US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s global tariffs last week, dealing a blow to his administration’s centrepiece trade policy. The administration quickly signalled that it would pursue 10%, then 15% global tariffs. While equity markets rallied on Friday, risk sentiment has been dampened this morning as uncertainty about trade policy returns. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, takes a step back from the limited geopolitical visibility and looks at what the charts on Treasury yields, the US dollar, and precious metals say. A fast, lively breakdown of what’s moving markets — tune in!

How sustainable is the narrow leadership of US equity markets? With aggressive AI-related capex plans raising concerns about long-term returns, investors have been reassessing concentrated positions in US mega cap technology and turning their attention elsewhere. What should be in focus as they look to broaden their portfolios?

In this edition of Moving Markets – The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Nenad Dinic, one of Julius Baer’s equity strategists, to discuss the drivers behind the current equity market rotation. They explore the broadening of market leadership beyond the AI-linked hyperscalers, the implications of massive capital expe...

US and European equity markets fell yesterday following President Trump’s announcement that Iran has 10-15 days to reach a deal over its nuclear programme. This pushed oil prices up over USD 72/ barrel this morning. On the bright side, Indian and South Korean equity markets climbed today. US Futures are also higher ahead of key US data due out today, and the possibility of the announcement of the highly anticipated Supreme Court decision on the legality of Trump’s tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Fixed Income Research analyst Afonso Borges discusses expectations around the data and the...

European stocks climbed to new highs as investors responded positively to solid corporate earnings. Meanwhile, the latest Federal Reserve minutes revealed a divided stance among US monetary policymakers. In Asia, South Korea’s Kospi index - often seen as a bellwether for AI-related trades - surged to a fresh record amid easing concerns over AI‑driven disruption. In today’s episode, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, discusses the emerging winners and losers as agentic AI reshapes the software sector.

As US markets returned from the holiday, volatility re-emerged across AI-linked equities. Europe showed resilience but commodities fell on easing geopolitics. In precious metals, volatility remains elevated due to thin trading during Asian hours amid the Lunar New Year holiday. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, talks about what that means for gold and silver going forward and why dips in AUD and NZD are looking like an opportunity. A fast, lively breakdown of what’s moving markets – tune in!

With US markets closed for Presidents’ Day and much of Asia shut for Lunar New Year, trading was thin yesterday and overnight, yet European equities still managed to edge higher. Swiss GDP data showed a slight rebound in Q4, although overall growth for 2025 remained below the historical average. Geopolitical developments also shaped sentiment, as investors digested the outcomes of the Munich Security Conference. Meanwhile, talks between Ukraine and Russia, as well as between Iran and the US, are taking place in Geneva today — highlighting how global politics continues to steer markets and keeping oil and gold firmly in the spot...

Global equity markets are starting the week on a subdued note, with US markets closed today for President’s Day. Liquidity is also thinner than usual due to the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays and carnival celebrations in parts of South America. Japanese equities are seeing some profit-taking following weaker‑than‑expected GDP data, while gold and silver are also trading lower. In today’s episode, we’re joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who shares why he remains wary on US equities.

Recent weeks have seen extreme cross‑asset volatility, with sharp unwinds hitting US and China tech stocks, precious metals and cryptocurrencies. In China, renewed concerns about regulatory scrutiny are weighing on sentiment, even as the case for a stronger renminbi continues to build.

In this episode of Moving Markets: The View Beyond, Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management Ltd., to discuss what the market dislocations mean for investors, and how these cross-asset dynamics may shape positioning in the weeks ahead.

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Markets were mixed yesterday, with European shares dragged down by weak results from Adyen, Magnum and Mercedes-Benz, despite solid updates from Siemens and Hermès. Schroders jumped on a takeover approach from Nuveen. In the US, deepening concerns over AI‑driven disruption hit tech stocks hard, pushing the ‘Magnificent Seven’ lower and marking Apple’s worst day since Liberation Day. Gold and silver slipped on stronger US labour data, oil fell on rising supply signals, and US housing data highlighted growing structural weakness. We’re joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, for the latest on metals and...

A surprisingly strong US jobs report sent yields higher – most notably at the short end of the curve – and weighed on equity index performance. Market expectations have now shifted, with traders anticipating that the Federal Reserve will hold off on further rate cuts until July. Meanwhile, European equities climbed to fresh highs on the back of robust earnings. In today’s episode, Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research joins us to share his detailed perspective on how investors should navigate the current landscape in cloud computing and artificial intelligence.

Rising concerns about who will be disrupted next by rapid advances in artificial intelligence continue to weigh on parts of the markets. Investors are caught between solid corporate earnings and concerns about the strength of the US economy as consumer spending has finally caught up with consumer sentiment, and not in a good way. Investors’ focus will remain on US data this week. Afonso Borges from Fixed Income Research talks about which data releases he will be watching closely. A fast, lively breakdown of what’s moving markets — tune in!

US stocks rose, with the S&P 500 near a record, led by technology and AI on renewed OpenAI momentum. Alphabet’s USD bond sale drew over USD 100 billion in demand, allowing it to raise USD 20 billion and tighten pricing on its 40‑year bond. The USD weakened on reports that China’s banks are advised to cut their US Treasury holdings. Europe closed higher on strong gains from UniCredit and Novo Nordisk, while Asia followed Wall Street, with regional technology at new highs and Japan hitting another record. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, discusses the precious metals market after...

Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi captured a historic supermajority for her Liberal Democratic Party in yesterday’s election, meaning the LDP holds two-thirds or more seats in the Lower House, and giving her the scope to pursue her fiscal agenda. The Nikkei 225 rallied 5.5% today, crossing the 57,000 threshold for the first time. Other Asian markets rallied this morning following the recovery in the US indices on Friday. Nevertheless, last week marked a rotation out of Big Tech and into smaller companies and dividend growth stocks. Gold is back up above USD 5,000 after whipsawing last week. Louis Chua, Equity Research Asia, join...

The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the likely next chair of the Federal Reserve has prompted immediate market reactions and renewed debate around the future direction of US monetary policy. What should investors expect as the Fed faces new leadership?

In this episode of Julius Baer’s Moving Markets – The View Beyond, Ayako Lehmann is joined by David Kohl, Chief Economist, to discuss the implications of Kevin Warsh’s nomination to lead the Federal Reserve. They examine market reactions, the prospects for rate cuts, the outlook for the US dollar, and the potential impact on asset classes includ...

The Bank of England and the European Central Bank both kept rates unchanged yesterday, signalling a cautious but data‑dependent stance even as inflation trends diverge on either side of the Channel. European equities finished broadly lower on the back of a busy earnings day, while in the US a third straight sell‑off pushed the S&P 500 into negative territory for the year. Crypto joined the risk‑off trend, while silver remained the standout story in commodities after back‑to‑back plunges and an overnight rebound that left volatility high. In corporate news, Rio Tinto and Glencore scrapped their merg...

The Bank of England and the European Central Bank both kept rates unchanged yesterday, signalling a cautious but data‑dependent stance even as inflation trends diverge on either side of the Channel. European equities finished broadly lower on the back of a busy earnings day, while in the US a third straight sell‑off pushed the S&P 500 into negative territory for the year. Crypto joined the risk‑off trend, while silver remained the standout story in commodities after back‑to‑back plunges and an overnight rebound that left volatility high. In corporate news, Rio Tinto and Glencore scrapped their merg...

Earnings and Big Tech remain in focus, with Alphabet beating Wall Street’s expectations but causing some investors to take flight in the wake of projected capex spending. The rotation out of tech stocks continued on Wednesday - the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.5%. China’s Hong Kong-listed technology stocks slid overnight with the Hang Seng Tech Index now 20% below its October peak. The threat of VAT increases being imposed on internet platforms exacerbated the move. The ECB and the Bank of England are both expected to keep rates on hold today. With investors hypnotised by swings in gold and silver pric...

The rotation out of technology stocks continued, with software shares selling off on AI‑disruption concerns, while cyclical stocks outperformed. WalMart reached a USD 1 trillion market‑cap milestone. German long‑dated yields hit their highest level since 2011 as heavy issuance lifted supply. Precious metals remain volatile but rebounded sharply, while Brent oil rises on Middle East tensions. In earnings, Novo Nordisk expects sales to fall this year due to pricing pressure. Afonso Borges from Fixed Income Research outlines developments in the US fixed income market and our Overweight stance on duration. Nenad Dinic from Equity Strategy provides an update on the...

After a deep slump at the open, market sentiment turned and equity markets swung sharply into positive territory, while precious metals — which had been under intense pressure — began to claw back recent losses in the hours that followed. In the US, tech favourite Palantir impressed after the close with stronger than expected results. And looking ahead, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation, shares his perspective on what the recent volatility means for precious metals and the path forward.

Gold and silver plummeted in a historic sell-off amid volatility and margin calls, triggered by speculation of a hawkish Fed chief pick. Markets reel as global equities tumble this morning, while investors brace for key earnings and central bank decisions in a turbulent start to February. Our Chief Economist David Kohl shares his view on what to expect from a Warsh-led Fed. And Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why the long-term trend in precious metals is still positive after the crash.

US equities were mixed yesterday, with investors rotating out of technology as Microsoft dropped sharply while Meta jumped. In Europe, SAP’s steep fall weighed on the DAX, while the Swiss market outperformed. Precious metals are experiencing extreme volatility after record highs, energy prices are rising amid escalating Middle East tensions, while markets also price in the growing likelihood that Kevin Warsh will become the next chairman of the US Federal Reserve. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva, explains what to watch in an environment of historic precious‑metal volatility and dollar weakness.

The US Federal Reserve left rates unchanged and struck a data‑dependent tone, even as political pressure around the central bank intensifies. The S&P 500 briefly crossed 7,000 before paring gains, tech earnings from Meta, Microsoft and Tesla sent mixed signals after the close, and European markets fell on volatile moves in ASML and LVMH. The US dollar rebounded on comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent, while geopolitical tensions pushed oil higher and gold surged above USD 5,500 as silver and copper also reached record highs. Today we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, for a timely update on...

A whirlwind week in global markets — and it’s only Wednesday. The dollar plunges, the Swiss franc hits multi‑year highs, and gold and silver seem unstoppable. Equity markets touch new records as investors brace for mega‑cap tech earnings and the Fed’s rate decision after market close today. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains what he expects from the US central bank. A fast, lively breakdown of what’s moving markets — tune in!

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After a remarkable 2025, gold and silver have surged to new highs in early 2026, driven by a complex mix of geopolitical developments and speculative flows. What is fuelling this rally, can it continue, and how should investors position themselves in these volatile markets?

In this episode of Moving Markets – The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Julius Baer’s Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, and Christopher Irwin, Head of FX and Precious Metals Trading, to dissect the forces behind the explosive moves in gold and silver. The discussion covers the impact of US political dynamics, the...

Markets opened the week with a weaker US dollar and sharp gains in gold and silver. Precious metals broke key levels, with gold rising as high USD 5,100 and silver to over USD 112 an ounce. Equities and bonds were relatively calm, but global stocks are still near record highs. China’s annual industrial profits rose for the first time since 2021 and India and the EU announce a trade deal. Energy prices are being supported by cold weather in the US and geopolitics. Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research discusses stablecoins and the broader crypto backdrop.

Silver sailed past USD 100 on Friday and has topped 107.50 in Asia this morning. Meanwhile, gold has broken through the USD 5,000 mark. There’s a lot of focus on USD/JPY and a possible US government shutdown is also now on the cards. Along with the twists and turns of geopolitics, markets now face a dense run of central bank decisions and one of the busiest earnings weeks of the year. Our analysts expect a test of conviction as markets navigate policy, growth, and profits simultaneously. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides more colour on the moves in precious me...

China’s markets are off to a strong start in 2026, raising renewed comparisons to the 2015 boom‑and‑bust just as global tensions escalate — from dramatic US moves over Greenland to a surge in gold prices and a weakening dollar. With capital rotating out of U.S. assets and liquidity patterns shifting across Asia, does today’s rally carry familiar risks, or does it mark the start of a very different cycle?

In this episode of Moving Markets – The View Beyond, Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and C...

China’s markets are off to a strong start in 2026, raising renewed comparisons to the 2015 boom‑and‑bust just as global tensions escalate — from dramatic US moves over Greenland to a surge in gold prices and a weakening dollar. With capital rotating out of U.S. assets and liquidity patterns shifting across Asia, does today’s rally carry familiar risks, or does it mark the start of a very different cycle?

In this episode of Moving Markets – The View Beyond, Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and C...

Global risk sentiment improved as geopolitical tensions eased, diplomatic efforts advanced, and resilient US data lifted equities while pushing volatility and high-yield credit spreads to their lowest since 2007. European stocks played catch‑up, supported by their cyclical exposure and positive company‑specific news. The US dollar has weakened sharply this week, boosting risk‑sensitive currencies. Commodities are surging, with gold and silver extending their historic rallies on strong momentum and a weaker dollar. The Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged but struck a hawkish tone. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva, discusses the historic rally in precious metals and in...

President Trump castigated European leaders over their response to his Greenland takeover attempt during his speech at the WEF in Davos yesterday but did step back from suggesting the use of military force. Equity markets rallied in response. They were given further positive momentum by a later post from the president which claimed that a framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland had been agreed with NATO and that tariff threats against Europe were off the agenda. Equity markets globally are mostly higher today and safe-haven assets have slipped. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next G...

Markets continue to de-risk and the “Sell America” narrative gains traction as geopolitical tensions over Greenland spook investors, triggering an equity sell-off, a weaker dollar, and soaring precious metals. With scant data ahead, all eyes are now on President Trump’s keynote speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos later today for clues on policy direction and de-escalation potential. We’re joined by Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, for an update on Japanese bond markets, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, who shares his view on how recent geopolitical risks might impact global equity markets...

European equities pulled back sharply yesterday after President Trump threatened tariffs on European goods, sending trade-sensitive sectors like autos and luxury sharply lower while defence stocks bucked the trend. Bond markets also came under pressure, with global yields rising and Japan’s 40-year government bond yield hitting a record high amid fiscal concerns and election uncertainty. In Asia, equity markets were mostly weaker despite fresh record highs in South Korea, while Chinese regulators moved to cool an overheating rally. Gold and silver jumped on safe-haven demand, oil edged higher, and diplomatic tensions flared further over Trump’s proposed ‘Board of Pea...

President Trump’s weekend announcement of new tariffs on eight European allies - linked to the US push to acquire Greenland - is set to ripple through global financial markets this week. Gold and silver have surged to fresh record highs on the news, while the US dollar has weakened. Today, we’re joined by Mensur Pocinci, our Head of Technical Analysis, who continues to see significant upside potential in select US equity sectors.

Geopolitics is once again in the spotlight. With protests intensifying in Iran and the recent US intervention in Venezuela, many investors are questioning whether these developments will meaningfully move oil prices — or whether an already oversupplied market will simply absorb the shocks.

In this episode of Moving Markets – The View Beyond, Norbert Ruecker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, joins Ayako Lehmann to explore how these events fit into the broader global energy landscape. They also discuss the longer‑term outlook for US shale, the ongoing erosion of oil demand in advanced economies, and wh...

Semiconductor stocks stole the spotlight yesterday as record results from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company reignited the AI trade across Europe, Wall Street, and Asia. Meanwhile, Germany recorded the first year of annual economic growth since 2022, while strong US data shifted expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Oil prices tumbled after President Trump signalled a pause in threats of military action against Iran, and gold extended losses as geopolitical tensions eased. Currency markets saw the yen strengthen on hints of possible intervention and speculation about an earlier Bank of Japan rate hike. Today’s episode features Tim Gagie, Head of FX Ad...