Moving Markets

After an early sell-off, equities rebounded during the trading session following President Trump’s comments that further negotiations with Iran - and a potential deal - remain within reach in the coming days. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 moved back into positive territory for the year, while oil prices slipped below USD 100 per barrel once again. In today’s episode, we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who shares his outlook on cybersecurity and explains why we remain constructive on the theme going forward.

Last week’s market rally was driven by ceasefire optimism and a sharp drop in oil prices, lifting equities despite growing signs of economic strain and energy‑led inflation pressures, although US core inflation in March (excluding energy) remained contained. Over the weekend, geopolitical risks moved back to centre stage as failed US–Iran talks and an effective embargo on Iranian oil pushed energy prices higher, shifting markets into a cautious risk‑off stance. The earnings season begins in earnest today, with results set to test whether corporate profits can withstand rising costs and heightened uncertainty. Notable companies reporting today in...

The US and Iran have agreed to a two‑week ceasefire in the Middle East conflict, but the deal continues to look fragile. Markets have reacted swiftly, with crude oil prices falling sharply while gold and equity markets rebounded. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, keeping energy supply risks firmly in focus. In this complex backdrop, how attractive is the current market risk‑reward, and how might the geopolitical landscape evolve from here?

Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotu...

Equity markets are trading higher amid renewed optimism that the ceasefire will hold, reinforced by Israel’s signal that it is ready to enter direct negotiations with Lebanon. Meanwhile, oil prices continue to rebound following Wednesday’s sharp losses. Investors’ focus now turns to today’s US CPI data for March. In this episode, we are joined by Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX Sales Switzerland, who shares his perspective on what lies ahead for the US dollar.

The last 24 hours were a game of two halves for equity markets – Europe and the US rallied as they celebrated the Middle East ceasefire and crude oil ended Wednesday 16% lower. But then the cracks in the terms of the ceasefire appeared – Israel attacked Lebanon, which Iran said breached the agreement, and Iran claimed that it has the right to enrich uranium, which the US says it does not. And so, oil rose again and Asian equity markets fell. Our Head of Next Generation Research, Carsten Menke, joins the podcast today to unravel the reaction of commodity markets to the ongo...

Oil fell the most in nearly six years, while stocks surged after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire just hours before a Trump-imposed deadline, giving markets a brief respite from Middle East–driven turbulence. Asian equity markets jumped, Treasuries rallied, the US dollar weakened, and precious metals advanced. Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Strategist, discusses the implications for bond markets, while Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, joins the show to outline what to expect from the upcoming earnings season.

Equity gains on Monday were modest and fragile. Risk appetite is fading as investors focus on President Trump’s deadline, rising oil prices, and Middle East tensions. Strong US payrolls on Friday contrast with weaker services employment and rising input costs on Monday, leaving uncertainty over whether inflation pressures will persist. Technology remains a key theme: strong AI demand supported Samsung and Broadcom, while potential IPOs from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI point to rising competition for a limited pool of capital. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, comments on developments in energy markets ahead of Pre...

Despite a significant selloff following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, global emerging market equities have demonstrated a surprising degree of resilience. What explains this contained drawdown, and how should investors differentiate across regions even as volatility persists?

In his highly anticipated address to the nation, President Trump dashed hopes of a swift resolution to the conflict with Iran, announcing that the US would ‘hit Iran very hard’ in the coming weeks. Markets reacted immediately: stocks reversed earlier gains, government bond yields rose, and oil prices and the US dollar moved sharply higher on the news. In this episode, we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who shares his insights on the increasingly concerning developments in the aluminium market - and what these dynamics could mean for the market in the weeks ahead.

Global markets showed signs of recovery yesterday after a highly volatile March, with European equities stabilising and US indices staging an impressive rally. However, persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to weigh on sentiment, fuelling higher energy prices and pushing Eurozone inflation above the ECB’s target. Asian markets opened April on a strong footing, led by a sharp surge in Japanese and South Korean equities. Today we’re joined by Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, to explore the latest developments in corporate credit markets and explain the headlines in private credit. We also welcome Math...

Despite strong German inflation, global bond yields fell as markets shifted from inflation concerns to weakening growth signals. Soft Swiss KOF and Eurozone confidence data reinforced this move, pushing investors into bonds. Fed chair Jerome Powell said the central bank has limited influence over supply‑driven price spikes, reducing expectations of imminent US rate increases. In equities, Europe held up, while US markets weakened as sentiment stayed fragile, oil prices stayed high, and volatility persisted after a month of war. Gold is recovering, up nearly 10% from last week’s low. Overall, traders point to cleaner positioning, weak sentiment after a sh...

Risk-off sentiment dominated the end of last week, with the S&P 500 posting its fifth consecutive weekly decline. Markets remained broadly cautious amid scepticism about any near-term geopolitical de-escalation after several days of headline-driven volatility. Concerns over a prolonged conflict and the risk of spillover effects on inflation and demand as a result of higher oil prices continued to weigh on sentiment. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, highlights why lower oil prices are critical for equity markets and what it implies now that the S&P 500 has fallen below its 200-day moving average.

As the war in the Middle East continues, energy markets are still at the centre of investors’ attention. How resilient are global oil and gas flows, and what are the possible scenarios as the situation evolves? 

In this episode Helen Freer is joined by Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, to discuss the latest developments in the Middle East and their implications for energy markets and investors. The conversation covers the current level of oil supply disruptions, the effectiveness of alternative trade routes, the role of storage buffers, and the potential for lasting structural chan...

Markets saw another sharp risk‑off move yesterday as fears of escalation in the Iran war pushed investors out of everything except oil. Inflation worries strengthened after the OECD raised its US forecast, while growth concerns deepened in Europe, where data points to a weak start to 2026. Corporate news added pressure, with technology stocks hit by Meta’s legal setbacks and renewed doubts about memory‑chip demand. Asian markets steadied after the US extended its deadline for potential strikes on Iran’s power plant infrastructure, though geopolitical risks remain high. Key releases today include Spain’s inflation data, BYD’s earnings...

Global equities rose on Wednesday as hopes of a path to peace in the Middle East and lower oil prices lifted sentiment. The MSCI World Index gained nearly 1%, its best performance since 9 February, and bond yields eased sharply. Beneath the positive market tone, economic surveys from Switzerland and Germany pointed to weakening confidence. Company news was mixed: Arm Holdings rallied on progress in AI hardware, while Meta and YouTube lost a landmark social‑media addiction case. In Asia, sentiment reversed as oil rebounded and memory stocks weakened after Google flagged an LLM compression method that could cut memory use. Ca...

Markets continue to gyrate around the latest headlines on the Middle East conflict. Early weakness yesterday – driven by doubts over the status of any US–Iran negotiations – gave way to renewed optimism overnight and into Asian trading this morning, as the US outlined a 15‑point plan aimed at ending the conflict. Gold stabilised, while global PMIs added to inflation concerns and highlighted weakening economic momentum. In this context, Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, discusses the drivers behind the recent market behaviour, why investors should remain patient, and why Swiss equities continue to serve as an effective crisis hedge.

Global equities staged a sharp rebound yesterday after reports of a potential de‑escalation in the Middle East conflict. Brent crude saw one of its biggest intraday swings on record, and short‑dated US Treasury yields dropped sharply. Asian markets also retraced some of their steep losses from the previous session. In today’s episode, we’re joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who shares why he remains constructive on the Buildings & Infrastructure theme in Germany.

Equity markets in Asia have followed their US peers lower this morning after President’s Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was issued on Saturday evening. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have responded that the Strait will remain closed until their power plants are rebuilt. They also warned that if Washington carries out its threat to obliterate their power plants, they will target energy anddesalination facilities in the Gulf. US Treasury bonds continue to see their prices fall, gold and silver are lower, and oil is trading on every headline. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl...

With geopolitical tensions in the Middle East driving a new wave of uncertainty, investors are watching central bank decisions and accompanying statements very closely. How are policymakers responding, and what does this mean for fixed income positioning?

In this episode of The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Dario Messi, Julius Baer’s Head of Fixed Income Research, to discuss the week’s mammoth round of central bank meetings. The conversation explores how recent geopolitical developments are shaping inflation expectations, and the challenges that these pose for central banks. Dario shares his perspective on why a hawk...

Equity markets turned choppy heading into the weekend, while oil prices cooled as investors weighed efforts by the US and Israel to ease concerns over the Iran war. Anxieties over hawkish central bank policies and upward pressure on rates also weighed on sentiment. However, the market continues to be very sensitive to any signs of potential de-escalation. Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX Sales Switzerland, talks about gold and the impact of the oil price on currency markets and the US dollar in particular.

Equity markets are sliding and bond yields are climbing as oil and gas prices surge amid a new wave of escalation in the Middle East. At the same time, central bankers are holding their breath as inflation expectations edge higher. In today’s episode, we welcome Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who share their latest insights on the future trajectory of energy and precious metals prices.

Global markets held up yesterday despite rising oil prices and escalating tensions in Iran, with European and US equities closing higher. Asian markets rallied strongly overnight, led by South Korea and Japan. More broadly though, investors remain cautious as sentiment cools in Europe and central banks prepare for key policy decisions. Today we’re joined by Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research Analyst, to discuss this week’s monetary policy decisions, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, who brings us the latest on Swiss equities.

Markets rebounded on Monday as declining oil prices during the day briefly eased inflation concerns, supported by IEA oil supply assurances and US comments on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. European and US equities advanced, led by artificial‑intelligence names, with Nvidia in focus after its major product event. Australia’s central bank raised rates by 25 basis points. In Asia, markets flattened as oil prices climbed again amid Middle East tensions, and President Trump postponed his trip to China because of the Iran war, driving European equity futures into the red prior to open. Damien Ng from Next Gene...

US markets closed lower on the day, and the week, on Friday but the S&P 500 is still only 5% off its all-time high. The US military struck Iran’s Kharg Island on Friday but as yet they have not targeted the oil infrastructure. President Trump is now calling for a coalition of countries to send ships to help escort cargo through the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices a little lower again. China and Hong Kong’s equities have rallied this morning as have South Korea’s, and futures point to a positive start to a central bank ‘super week’. M...

As the conflict in Iran continues to drive oil prices higher and unsettle global markets, investors are assessing the implications for Asia and China. Meanwhile in Beijing, the annual Two Sessions meetings have just concluded, outlining policy priorities and economic targets for the year ahead.

In this episode of Moving Markets: The View Beyond, Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management. They discuss how geopolitical tensions are affecting Asian markets, their key takeaways from the Two Sessions, the outlook for Hong Kong...

Global markets endured another turbulent session as escalating tensions in the Middle East, including aggressive rhetoric from both Iran and the United States, drove oil prices higher and fuelled risk aversion. European and US equities extended their declines, with energy stocks bucking the trend. Strong US macro data contrasted with the geopolitical gloom, but new US trade investigations under Section 301 added to uncertainty. Private credit concerns also intensified, weighing heavily on major alternative asset managers. Asian markets traded lower overnight, gold slipped despite its safe‑haven appeal, and investors now turn their attention to a packed economic data agenda. Jo...

Tuesday’s rally in European stocks proved short‑lived as surging oil prices and renewed concerns over potential rate hikes unsettled investors. In contrast, US markets were more composed yesterday, with the tech‑heavy Nasdaq even managing to post a modest gain. Asian markets are trading lower today after Brent crude climbed above USD 100 a barrel amid fresh geopolitical escalations. In today’s episode, we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who shares his insights on aluminium and the potential disruption shaping the outlook for the market.

Markets reacted to volatile geopolitics as hopes of a swift resolution in the Iran crisis clashed with heightened military tensions. Strong gains in European equities and a sharp drop in oil prices highlighted a session defined by fragile optimism. With central banks watching inflation and safe havens like gold and the Swiss franc holding firm, uncertainty remains. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research at Julius Baer, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Julius Baer’s Equity Strategy Research team, discuss how recent geopolitical developments are shaping global bond and equity markets and how investors can navigate markets amid the fo...

Brent oil saw historic intraday swings yesterday, surging on supply fears before dropping sharply as the G7 discussed releasing reserves and the US president signalled the war could soon end. This shift helped European markets rebound from their lows and lifted US equities as safe‑haven flows unwound. Asian markets followed Wall Street higher, supported by strong corporate results and robust Chinese export data. Japan’s Q4 GDP beat expectations, although household spending weakened. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, shares his timely view on the oil price spike and what likely comes next.

This morning, Iran named Mojtaba Khamanei, the man President Trump said would be unacceptable in the post, as its new leader. The immediate market reaction was a spike in the price of Brent crude oil to nearly USD120 per barrel, and a pronounced selloff in Asian stock markets. These moves have since reversed somewhat after the Financial Times wrote that G7 leaders will have talks with the International Energy Agency today regarding a possible release of energy reserves. Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong explains why positioning is driving Asian equity markets more than fundamentals right now, and...

The recent US and Israel strike on Iran has introduced a new layer of uncertainty to global markets, with investors closely monitoring the implications for oil & gas, and portfolios overall. How should investors interpret these developments and position themselves amid heightened geopolitical risk?

In this episode of Moving Markets: The View Beyond, Ayako Lehmann is joined by Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, and Yves Klenk, Head of Client Coverage and Advisory, to discuss the market impact of the Middle East escalation. The conversation covers the immediate effects on oil and gas prices, t...

Global markets saw another volatile session as escalating Middle East tensions drove oil prices sharply higher and dampened risk appetite. Equities fell across the US and Europe, and US bond yields moved higher as investors reassessed the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts. In tech, potential new US restrictions on AI chip exports weighed on sentiment, though software stocks bucked the trend with a notable rebound. Asian markets were mixed overnight. Joining our show today is Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, for the latest on currencies and metals.

US and European equities rebounded yesterday as the absence of another energy spike supported sentiment. Strong US job gains and a firm ISM services reading eased growth concerns, reduced expectations for a July rate cut, and lifted major indices, with technology leading. The US dollar held firm, investors are positioned for a weaker euro, and Swiss franc strength triggered a second round of SNB verbal intervention. Bitcoin surged, China set a cautious growth target, and Asian markets – especially South Korea – rebounded sharply after steep losses. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, provides a timely update on the o...

US and European stock markets fell further yesterday although some relief was provided by Trump’s promise to accompany vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.  Both oil and the US dollar strengthened, but gold and silver fell, and overnight Asia’s stock markets suffered a bruising session with the Kospi falling more in one day than it has since 2001. Joining the show today are our research team heads of Equity Strategy, Mathieu Racheter, and Fixed Income, Dario Messi, to provide some context on the recent moves in global equity markets and US Treasuries, as well as some suggestions on how t...

While European markets tumbled amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East, US equities held up surprisingly well. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 managed to post modest gains, supported largely by strength in the technology sector. This morning, however, oil prices have climbed further as tensions continue to rise, and Asian markets are deep in negative territory. Today, we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who puts the latest moves in precious metals into perspective.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have escalated over the weekend, with coordinated strikes by the US and Israel targeting Iranian facilities and leadership. In response, Iran has launched retaliatory strikes across the Gulf region. The surge in hostilities has placed global markets under heightened scrutiny. Equity indices are trading lower, while safe-haven assets - including the Swiss franc and gold - are seeing increased demand. Oil prices have spiked overnight, driven by fears of potential supply disruptions in one of the world’s most critical energy regions. In this episode, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Gen...

The recent US Supreme Court decision on tariffs has shifted the landscape for investors, replacing a patchwork of country-specific measures with a temporary universal tariff. What does this mean for markets overall, different countries and sectors, the US dollar and fixed income?

In this episode of Julius Baer’s Moving Markets – The View Beyond podcast, Helen Freer is joined by Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, to discuss the implications of the Supreme Court’s ruling against the tariffs implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act last year. The conversation covers the short-term reduction in uncertainty, the winner...

Major stock indices ended mostly lower after a two‑day rally. In the US, the Information Technology sector fell nearly 2%, weighed down by a 5.5% drop in Nvidia shares. In contrast, the equally weighted S&P 500 gained 0.6%. Treasury prices and gold edged higher as investors sought safe‑haven assets following the conclusion of US - Iran talks, which ended without any tangible progress. Today, we are joined by Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX Sales Switzerland, who shares his views on precious metals and alternatives for those looking to diversify beyond the US dollar.

Nvidia delivered results yesterday that beat analysts’ expectations but failed to cause more than a brief rally in extended trading. Nevertheless, US indices ended the day higher, with the Nasdaq Composite closing up 1.26%, and Asia’s tech-biased indices following suit. The Nikkei 225 breached 59,000 for the first time as the Takaichi trade continued.  Elsewhere investors await further tariff announcements from the US in the coming days. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, joins today’s show to explain why, despite rising geopolitical tensions, he believes that the trajectory for both oil and European natural gas prices will be...

US stocks rebounded yesterday led by technology shares after AI developments announced by Meta and Anthropic. Strong US economic data lifted the broader market and boosted small caps. In Europe, autos rose on lower‑than‑expected US tariffs, while banks fell. Taiwan and South Korea climbed on AI optimism, and Japan advanced after the Prime Minister nominated two reflation‑focused academics to the Bank of Japan’s policy board, fuelling expectations of slow rate increases and keeping the yen weak. Precious metals strengthened with gold and silver rising on geopolitical tensions, China’s market return, and continued safe-haven demand. Dario Mess...