Moving Markets

Higher oil prices and rising bond yields weighed on equity markets, pushing global stocks lower at the start of the week. US Treasury yields remained in focus as strong corporate bond issuance added to concerns over US fiscal deficits. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence remained a standout theme, with Anthropic's rapid growth boosting sentiment across the sector. Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research, takes a closer look at AI, noting that record investment by hyperscalers and institutional investors continues to support strong demand for AI infrastructure. Investors are increasingly focused on when that spending will translate into earnings and cash flow.

Global market performance was mixed last week, with Japanese equities emerging as the standout winner, driven by strong gains in technology and semiconductor stocks. Meanwhile, oil prices surged around 6% amid renewed geopolitical tensions, and longer-term government bond yields moved higher despite softer-than-expected signals from US inflation and consumer data. In this episode, we are joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who shares his latest insights on the recent weakness in both the US dollar and the Swiss franc. He also explains why he remains constructive on precious metals and discusses the key market trends investors should be...

With Korean semiconductor stocks down nearly 50% from their June peak, has the AI correction finally run its course? Where could the next leg of the AI rally come from, and how are China’s cheaper AI models — including DeepSeek’s rumoured new release — reshaping the competitive landscape?

Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management, on these latest developments in AI, as well as the broader market themes driving China and global markets — including the rotation back into value names, China’s gr...

US equities continued their upward climb this week, supported by a series of encouraging inflation releases, while European stocks have taken a breather after hitting record highs earlier in the week. In fixed income markets, government bond yields moved lower as investors scaled back expectations for rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Joining us today is Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, who shares his latest outlook on the energy market and explains why he continues to expect oil prices to trend lower in the months ahead.

The latest US inflation data came in in line with expectations and reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in September. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite both finished the day in positive territory yesterday, with technology stocks leading the gains. Earlier in Europe, equities eased as investors balanced earnings releases with ongoing geopolitical developments. Oil markets are weighing up the escalating tensions in the Middle East against softer global demand expectations from both OPEC and the IEA. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, joins the show today to...

Markets struggled for direction yesterday, with investors balancing geopolitical tensions, higher oil prices and a busy corporate news flow. US equities fell for a second straight session as technology shares came under pressure, while European stocks consolidated near record highs and Asian markets traded mixed overnight. With markets searching for direction, the spotlight now shifts to today's US inflation report, a release that could prove pivotal for interest-rate expectations and broader investor sentiment. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, joins us to discuss what the inflation figures mean for bond investors, while Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy...

Eurozone growth expectations have improved, supported by a strong earnings season. Oil prices rose on renewed Strait of Hormuz tensions, while OPEC output recovered in July. AI investment remained in focus, with Intel raising capital, Nvidia securing funding for AI infrastructure, and regulatory changes supporting additional financing channels. However, this did not support the Nasdaq, which edged lower on Monday. Gold and silver extended their rally from late last week, supported by rebounding gold ETF demand. Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research, discusses the state of AI infrastructure spending, arguing that it is not a bubble, while stressing that investors...

Markets are starting the week on a strong footing. Softer US jobs data, falling bond yields, robust corporate earnings, and Berkshire Hathaway's return to share buybacks have fuelled optimism among investors. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, discusses what the latest signals mean for equities, the US dollar, gold, and silver, and why he believes key market trends still have room to run.

Amid rising market volatility and a shift beyond the dominant AI-driven rally, investor interest is turning to hedge funds. In this episode, we examine the appeal of market-neutral, Asia-focused multi-manager hedge funds and how institutional investors are incorporating them into diversified portfolios to pursue resilient outcomes.

William Fong, Head of Alternatives Specialists for Asia and the Middle East at Julius Baer, sits down with Angus Wai, Founder, CEO and CIO of Polymer Capital Management, to discuss the evolution of the multi-manager model, the importance of risk management, and the opportunities he sees across Asia's dynamic i...

Three themes dominated markets yesterday: earnings, AI and macro risks. Strong results boosted stocks such as Deutsche Telekom and Diageo, while disappointments weighed on several industrial and technology names. AI remained a key driver, supporting China's trade data and attracting strong demand for Alphabet's USD 25 billion bond offering. Meanwhile, Middle East tensions lifted oil prices and bond yields as investors looked ahead to today's US payrolls report for clues on Fed policy. Damian Ng, Next Generation Research, explains why success in biotechnology increasingly depends on strong innovation ecosystems. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, discusses gold's breakout...

With changing sentiment around Middle East tensions and a busy earnings season driving market moves, the Dow Jones recorded its fifth consecutive gain yesterday and a third straight record close. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both slipped, with the latter weighted down by declines in SpaceX and AMD, while European equities reached a fresh all-time high. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, joins the show to discuss expectations for the US Federal Reserve and what it means for fixed income portfolios.

Stocks are breaking records as investors double down on the AI trade. Strong earnings across sectors, easing geopolitical concerns and renewed risk appetite have pushed markets higher, but SpaceX's latest results reveal the growing price tag of the AI revolution. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, provides more details on the ongoing earnings season, the rotation shaping markets, and where he sees the most attractive opportunities in technology today.

Markets were supported by hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East, sending oil prices sharply lower and easing inflation concerns. Investors also digested a rare coordinated yen-buying intervention by Japan and the United States, while strong US manufacturing data pointed to continued resilience in the industrial sector. Equities advanced on both sides of the Atlantic, with the Dow Jones reaching a record close and the STOXX 600 remaining near all-time highs. Meanwhile, company news included reports of potential merger talks between AstraZeneca and Bristol Myers Squibb, Visa's acquisition of cybersecurity firm BioCatch, and Alibaba's latest AI model launch. Joining us...

After a volatile week, global markets are starting the new trading session on a stronger footing. Investor sentiment improved overnight following reports that renewed US-Iran talks aimed at easing Middle East tensions could begin as early as today, sending oil prices down more than 5%. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen is emerging as one of the day's standout performers, extending its gains against the US dollar after confirmed intervention efforts by both US and Japanese authorities. In today's episode, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, shares his latest market insights, examining the technical outlook for the Japanese yen, Asian semiconductor stocks...

In just one week, the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan all chose to hold interest rates steady, yet none of the decisions were unanimous, and of course, the Fed's new Chair is now steering away from forward guidance altogether. With investors left to navigate rates without the usual signposts, what should they make of this week's decisions, and what comes next?

In this episode of The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko sits down with David Kohl, Chief Economist at Julius Baer, to unpack the week's central bank decisions. They discuss why...

US stocks staged a rally yesterday following Wednesday’s post-Fed sell-off. Microsoft and semiconductors definitely helped to drive the gains. And the pattern continued in Asia this morning with South Korea’s Kospi up 18% in its session. Central banks in the UK and Japan cemented a week of no moves – although their messaging about the future path of rates diverged. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, joins today’s podcast to share why he thinks interventions in currency markets are a waste of money and time and he also provides some useful insights into this week’s dollar and...

Markets reacted sharply after a divided US Federal Reserve opted to leave interest rates unchanged yesterday. The decision triggered a notable steepening of the Treasury yield curve, with 2-year yields edging lower while 30-year yields moved materially higher. US equities also came under pressure, with major stock indices posting significant declines. However, sentiment improved after the closing bell when despite Meta disappointing investors with weaker profit results, Microsoft reported stronger-than-expected earnings. In today's episode, Afonso Borges from our Fixed Income Research team unpacks the Fed's latest decision, explains the market reaction, and discusses what it could mean for investors...

A sharp market rotation took centre stage on Tuesday as investors moved out of chipmakers and into healthcare and financial stocks, pushing both sectors to fresh record highs. Even blockbuster results from AI memory leader SK Hynix failed to ease concerns, extending the sell-off in semiconductor stocks ahead of a crucial week for Big Tech earnings. With the Federal Reserve set to announce its latest interest rate decision today, markets are bracing for the next major catalyst. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, shares his expectations for the Fed’s decision and what it could mean for investors. We...

Middle East tensions remain elevated despite a pause in US air strikes on Iran, which seems to have held overnight. European markets were flat overall yesterday, with the German DAX outperforming the other major indices. US markets were mixed as falling oil prices supported sentiment, but concerns over geopolitics and tech valuations weighed on semiconductor stocks. Asian technology shares are sliding today; South Korea's Kospi is the worst-performing index in the region, down nearly 11%. Investors are now focused on the Fed meeting that concludes tomorrow and major earnings releases from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple later this week. Dr...

Markets are starting the week on a firmer footing as a pause in Middle East hostilities pushes oil prices lower and eases inflation concerns. The move follows a cautious week for investors, with concerns about AI spending, rising bond yields and escalating geopolitical tensions weighing on sentiment. Most major US equity indices ended the week lower, while European equities proved relatively resilient and both Japanese and Chinese markets posted gains. Attention now turns to a pivotal week featuring the Federal Reserve's policy decision, key US economic releases, and earnings releases from Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon. Joining us today...

As Europe faces increasingly frequent and severe heatwaves, the implications extend far beyond discomfort. The rising temperatures are creating urgent challenges with regard to public health, economic resilience, and urban infrastructure. What does a warmer world mean for the way we live, work, and invest?

In this episode, Helen Freer is joined by Dr. Damien Ng, an analyst in Julius Baer’s Next Generation research team, to discuss how higher global temperatures are reshaping the risk landscape for populations and investors alike. The conversation explores how heatwaves are becoming a major public health concern, the mounting pressure on...

Global equities traded lower as oil prices surged in response to escalating tensions in the Middle East, while renewed concerns over AI-related capital expenditure weighed on investor sentiment. Although the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged, expectations of further policy tightening later this year have strengthened, pushing bond yields higher across major markets. In today's episode, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, shares his insights on the latest developments in foreign exchange and metals markets, and what they could mean for investors.

Oil prices continue to surge as tensions between the US and Iran raise concerns about global energy supplies and economic growth. There were knock-on effects in bond markets with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising to a two-month high. Alphabet and Tesla were the first of the Magnificent 7 stocks to report earnings after the bell yesterday – both stocks fell in extended trading. At the European Central Bank meeting later today interest rates are expected to be held steady. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, joins the show to provide an update on the Q2 earnings season so far an...

Markets faced a fresh wave of geopolitical risk as the conflict involving the US, Iran and the Houthis escalated, pushing oil prices higher. Yet equities remained resilient, with positive corporate earnings and strength in semiconductors helping offset investor concerns. Elsewhere, the US announced a 50% tariff on a broad range of Canadian imports, Japan's yen weakened beyond 163 against the dollar despite intervention warnings, and competition intensified in the obesity drug market as Novo Nordisk sued Eli Lilly. Investors now await results from Alphabet and Tesla while continuing to monitor developments in the Middle East. We are also joined by Dario...

Burnham's debut, bond market jitters and the future of AI in BioPharma Markets were relatively quiet yesterday, but developments in the UK drew investor attention. Prime Minister Andy Burnham's policy announcements sparked concerns over the fiscal outlook, sending gilt yields higher, while John Healey's appointment as Chancellor raised fresh questions about economic policy. Meanwhile, semiconductor stocks rebounded, and oil prices swung sharply. Damien Ng from our Next Generation Research team joins us to discuss why AI's impact on BioPharma is likely to unfold over the coming years, rather than quarters.

Semiconductor stocks have plunged more than 20% from their recent highs, officially entering bear market territory after China’s Moonshot launched its Kimi K3 model sparking fears of intensifying global competition. Amid rising concerns over stretched valuations, geopolitical risks, and a critical earnings week ahead – including reports from Alphabet, SK Hynix, and Tesla – markets stand at a crossroads. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why the long-term uptrend of semiconductors remains intact despite the sell-off and what this means for broader equity markets.

After a sharp correction in AI-related stocks across Asia, investors are reassessing one of the market's strongest themes of the past year. In China, many AI and semiconductor-related names have fallen significantly from their recent highs, prompting debate over whether the pullback is creating a buying opportunity or signalling a more prolonged period of volatility.

In this episode, Richard Tang speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management, about the outlook for China's equity market following the recent AI sell-off. They discuss whether the correction has further to run, the prospects f...

Equity markets weakened as continued losses in semiconductor stocks and ongoing tensions in the Middle East weighed on risk sentiment, pushing major indices firmly into negative territory. At the same time, recent economic data highlighted the resilience of the US economy, adding another layer of complexity to the market outlook. Meanwhile, Netflix shares came under pressure in after-hours trading after the company forecast slower revenue growth. In today’s episode, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, joins us to discuss the latest moves in gold and the British pound, what's driving these markets, and the key levels in...

The current earnings season is seeing some bright spots, such as the Swiss luxury retailer Richemont and the US asset manager BlackRock. US producer prices came in below expectations, continuing to ease inflation concerns. In Asia, a rotation continues from this year's winners, Japan and South Korea, towards laggards such as Hong Kong, while South Korean regulators announced plans to address volatility linked to leveraged ETFs tied to SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. The US dollar stabilised after recent weakness and sterling rose to a one-year high. Meanwhile, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, discusses w...

Yesterday’s release of June CPI inflation data in the US provided a welcome boost to US equity and Treasury prices, as traders drastically lowered their bets on a Fed rate hike in July. The mood was further bolstered by Q2 earnings from Wall Street’s big five banks. The buoyant mood continued in Asia this morning, especially in tech, with the Kospi rallying over 7% at one point. We had two guest speakers on today’s podcast. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research highlights his key takeaway from the inflation report and outlines his expectations for Fed policy going...

Oil prices surged after fresh tensions in the Middle East raised concerns over global energy supplies, while higher inflation expectations pushed Treasury yields higher and weighed on equity markets, where semiconductor stocks led the declines. Investors are now turning their attention to the start of the US earnings season, with major banks reporting results today. Elsewhere, China’s trade data surprised to the upside, Singapore’s economy grew faster than expected, and the UK and Switzerland announced a new trade deal. On today’s show, we are joined by Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research, to discuss quantum computing and discov...

Markets are feeling the pressure this Monday morning as rising US-Iran tensions fuel higher oil prices, bond yields and the dollar, while equities drift lower. But with earnings season now taking centre stage, investors are asking a bigger question: can AI leaders and chipmakers justify their stellar gains from the first half of the year? Also in this episode: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why he believes market leadership is unlikely to change despite recent volatility, and why he has upgraded Financials.

With the UK preparing for a new phase of political leadership under the Labour Party's Andy Burnham, investors are watching closely for signals that could impact sterling and UK bonds. Despite headline changes at the top, market volatility has remained subdued. What’s behind the calm, and what should investors expect next?

In this episode of Julius Baer’s Moving Markets: The View Beyond, Ayako Lehmann is joined by David Meier, Chief Currency Strategist, and Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research Analyst, to examine the implications of the UK’s political reset for currency and fixed income markets. The di...

As peace talks could be back on the table in the Middle East, global equity markets breathed a sigh of relief and investors snapped up tech stocks around the world. The Kospi retreated from bear market territory rallying more than 5%. And Japanese bonds, equities and the currency were boosted by comments from the country’s finance minister that the government wants to encourage its pension funds to invest more in domestic assets. Despite geopolitical risks having returned as a key driver of bond-market performance, Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains why investors should avoid this temporary market no...

Market sentiment has weakened as renewed tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices and government bond yields higher. Spain’s benchmark equity index has come under additional pressure following President Trump’s threat to impose trade restrictions on the country. In this episode, Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro and Next Generation Research, joins us to discuss the latest surge in oil prices, the broader implications for inflation and whether the move reflects a lasting shift in the outlook or merely a temporary disruption.

Sharp semiconductor losses amid AI chip rivalry fears contrast with resilient broader markets, while escalating US-Iran tensions send oil surging 5%, highlighting growing jitters over geopolitics and inflation just as central banks signal rates may stay higher for longer. Investors will now focus on the upcoming earnings season for more guidance. Matthieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, shares his insights on what to expect. And Tim Gagie, Head of PB Sales (Geneva) FX & PM, talks about the British pound amid the political uncertainty in Britain and key levels to watch for gold.

US equities started the week strongly as AI-related stocks rebounded yesterday and the Dow Jones closed above 53,000 for the first time. Broadcom gained after extending its partnership with Apple, while Microsoft slipped following plans to cut jobs as it reallocates resources towards AI infrastructure. In Europe, most indices were down, although Germany’s DAX bucked the trend and reached a new record high, and EasyJet surged on takeover news. Asian markets today came under pressure, led by South Korea’s Kospi, where a trading halt was triggered when the index fell more than 8%. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Rese...

Softer inflation data supported sentiment in the eurozone, while in the US, comments by Fed chair Kevin Warsh on inflation and a weaker-than-expected labour market report lifted equities last week. Gold rose and the USD weakened. Brent crude is holding near USD 72 despite OPEC+ announcing an output increase over the weekend. In Asia, attention is on SK Hynix ahead of its USD 29 billion US listing, which could become the largest-ever foreign IPO. SpaceX is also in focus as the expiry of the analyst quiet period is expected to trigger a wave of research reports and price targets. Mensur Pocinci...

As the United States marks 250 years of independence, investors are asking whether its markets can continue to deliver long-term outperformance in the face of elevated valuations and global competition. What are America’s enduring structural advantages, and could we be entering a new investment era?

In this episode of The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer, to discuss the investability of the US market as it celebrates a major milestone. Together, they examine the historical drivers of US market leadership, from industrialisation to the current wave of ar...

US job growth slowed significantly in June, giving support to our economists’ view that the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates again this year. This pushed Treasury yields and the USD lower, while supporting gold and most equities. US technology and semiconductor stocks fell sharply after reports that Anthropic is looking into developing its own AI chip together with Samsung Electronics. European marketsrose on Brent oil moving towards USD 70 per barrel, reduced rate-hike expectations by the Fed and new German growth measures. Asian equities outperformed, driven by gains in semiconductor stocks and encouraging economic data from China an...