Moving Markets

Markets started the week on a cautious note as geopolitics, central bank meetings and rising oil prices kept risk appetite in check. European equities slipped, while US indices hovered near record highs, supported by big tech, despite a pause in the semiconductor rally. AI remained firmly in focus after OpenAI signalled a shift in its relationship with Microsoft. Outside of tech, energy markets drew attention as Shell announced a major acquisition to boost long‑term production. Bond yields edged higher in the US, as investors positioned ahead of the Fed, while commodities stayed volatile and Asian markets were mixed fo...

Markets have kicked off the week on a strong note, with Asian - particularly tech - stocks rallying amid renewed diplomatic efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East and an exceptionally robust earnings season. The days ahead will be pivotal, with major central banks delivering key monetary policy decisions and several members of the “Magnificent 7” set to report earnings. In this episode, we’re joined by Markus Wachter from Technical Analysis, who shares why he believes both equity markets and gold still have room to run.

In an environment marked by higher inflation, geopolitical uncertainty and increased market volatility, private infrastructure is regaining focus as a resilient allocation.

In this episode of Moving Markets: The View Beyond, William Fong, Head of Alternatives Specialists Asia & Middle East at Julius Baer, speaks with Daniel McCormack, Head of Research at Macquarie Asset Management's Client Solutions Group, about the shifting global macro landscape and how private infrastructure can play a vital dual role in portfolios - providing resilience through inflation linkage and essential services, while positioning investors for long‑term growth driven by digitalisation, AI‑led data dema...

Global markets sent mixed signals as US data pointed to surprising resilience, while the eurozone slipped back into contraction. Rising energy prices remain a key concern, driving inflation pressures and weighing on confidence. Equity markets reflected this caution yesterday, with US tech stocks pulling back as several software names underperformed after reporting earnings. Meanwhile, signs of Swiss National Bank FX intervention are emerging, while oil prices continue to climb and gold has moved lower. Asia‑Pacific markets were mostly weaker, with Japan the notable exception following firmer inflation data ahead of next week’s Bank of Japan meeting. Joining our...

New record highs were set in the US trading session on Wednesday as markets embraced the ceasefire extension and more strong Q1 earnings. But despite Asian markets rallying at the open, they failed to hold onto their gains as investors’ focus returned to the fact that the Strait of Hormuz effectively remains closed for business. As EU leaders meet to discuss how to address the energy price shock, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, explains why he believes that Europe’s energy resilience is overlooked – not only is the continent exiting the heating season but drivers are inc...

Geopolitical tensions and a late ceasefire extension kept markets on edge. Equities were lower in Tuesday’s trading session as stocks ended near session lows. Strong nominal US retail sales and upbeat earnings clashed with fading optimism. Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Strategist, shares his takeaways from Fed Chair-to-be Kevin Warsh’s Senate hearing and the implications for bond markets. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, also joins the show to provide an update on the ongoing earnings season and outline what investors should be watching in the weeks ahead.

After a brief bout of optimism on Friday, concerns over a potential escalation between the US and Iran swiftly re-emerged yesterday. Oil prices climbed by around 5%, while equity markets came under pressure. Europe’s broad indices fell by roughly 0.8%, and all major U.S. indices closed slightly lower, with the Nasdaq snapping a 14-session winning streak. In today’s episode, we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who shares his insights on silver.

The first quarter of 2026 has presented investors with complex and worsening financial conditions, volatile oil prices, and heightened geopolitical tensions. Q1 earnings are already being reported, and so far, the indications have been promising. What are the expectations for the rest of the season? And what should investors be watching out for?

In this episode of The View Beyond Podcast, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research at Julius Baer, to preview the first-quarter earnings season and explore how markets are dealing with the ongoing uncertainty. They examine the resilience of equity...

Wall Street ended modestly higher yesterday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at record highs following a twelfth consecutive advance. US markets reacted positively to the announcement of a 10‑day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel. Earnings also provided support, led by banks and semiconductor companies, while luxury remained the weak spot this week. Notably, shares of Charles Schwab and Netflix both fell sharply yesterday after releasing their results. US economic data was mixed, with industrial production declining but survey indicators staying firm. In Europe, inflation surprised to the upside and Germany cut its growth forecast for the year. Th...

President Trump indicated that Tehran wants to make a deal yesterday and officials from Pakistan signalled that new talks are planned. Meanwhile, it seems as if Israel and Lebanon might also be poised to have ceasefire discussions. US and Asia stock markets have reacted very positively with several indices surging to new all-time highs. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, joins the podcast to unravel the complicated nuances of different fuel prices and explain why he believes that oil prices might now be past their peak. 

Investors grapple with rising stagflation fears amid slowing growth and persistent inflation, yet optimism over renewed US-Iran peace talks has fuelled a broad equity rally, pushing major markets close to record highs. Banks are reporting booming trading revenues even as they sounded a note of caution about the ripple effect of higher oil prices. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, discusses how major central banks may respond to the repercussions of the war and whether credit markets can benefit from the equity rebound.

After an early sell-off, equities rebounded during the trading session following President Trump’s comments that further negotiations with Iran - and a potential deal - remain within reach in the coming days. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 moved back into positive territory for the year, while oil prices slipped below USD 100 per barrel once again. In today’s episode, we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who shares his outlook on cybersecurity and explains why we remain constructive on the theme going forward.

Last week’s market rally was driven by ceasefire optimism and a sharp drop in oil prices, lifting equities despite growing signs of economic strain and energy‑led inflation pressures, although US core inflation in March (excluding energy) remained contained. Over the weekend, geopolitical risks moved back to centre stage as failed US–Iran talks and an effective embargo on Iranian oil pushed energy prices higher, shifting markets into a cautious risk‑off stance. The earnings season begins in earnest today, with results set to test whether corporate profits can withstand rising costs and heightened uncertainty. Notable companies reporting today in...

The US and Iran have agreed to a two‑week ceasefire in the Middle East conflict, but the deal continues to look fragile. Markets have reacted swiftly, with crude oil prices falling sharply while gold and equity markets rebounded. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, keeping energy supply risks firmly in focus. In this complex backdrop, how attractive is the current market risk‑reward, and how might the geopolitical landscape evolve from here?

Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotu...

Equity markets are trading higher amid renewed optimism that the ceasefire will hold, reinforced by Israel’s signal that it is ready to enter direct negotiations with Lebanon. Meanwhile, oil prices continue to rebound following Wednesday’s sharp losses. Investors’ focus now turns to today’s US CPI data for March. In this episode, we are joined by Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX Sales Switzerland, who shares his perspective on what lies ahead for the US dollar.

The last 24 hours were a game of two halves for equity markets – Europe and the US rallied as they celebrated the Middle East ceasefire and crude oil ended Wednesday 16% lower. But then the cracks in the terms of the ceasefire appeared – Israel attacked Lebanon, which Iran said breached the agreement, and Iran claimed that it has the right to enrich uranium, which the US says it does not. And so, oil rose again and Asian equity markets fell. Our Head of Next Generation Research, Carsten Menke, joins the podcast today to unravel the reaction of commodity markets to the ongo...

Oil fell the most in nearly six years, while stocks surged after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire just hours before a Trump-imposed deadline, giving markets a brief respite from Middle East–driven turbulence. Asian equity markets jumped, Treasuries rallied, the US dollar weakened, and precious metals advanced. Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Strategist, discusses the implications for bond markets, while Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, joins the show to outline what to expect from the upcoming earnings season.

Equity gains on Monday were modest and fragile. Risk appetite is fading as investors focus on President Trump’s deadline, rising oil prices, and Middle East tensions. Strong US payrolls on Friday contrast with weaker services employment and rising input costs on Monday, leaving uncertainty over whether inflation pressures will persist. Technology remains a key theme: strong AI demand supported Samsung and Broadcom, while potential IPOs from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI point to rising competition for a limited pool of capital. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, comments on developments in energy markets ahead of Pre...

Despite a significant selloff following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, global emerging market equities have demonstrated a surprising degree of resilience. What explains this contained drawdown, and how should investors differentiate across regions even as volatility persists?

In his highly anticipated address to the nation, President Trump dashed hopes of a swift resolution to the conflict with Iran, announcing that the US would ‘hit Iran very hard’ in the coming weeks. Markets reacted immediately: stocks reversed earlier gains, government bond yields rose, and oil prices and the US dollar moved sharply higher on the news. In this episode, we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who shares his insights on the increasingly concerning developments in the aluminium market - and what these dynamics could mean for the market in the weeks ahead.

Global markets showed signs of recovery yesterday after a highly volatile March, with European equities stabilising and US indices staging an impressive rally. However, persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to weigh on sentiment, fuelling higher energy prices and pushing Eurozone inflation above the ECB’s target. Asian markets opened April on a strong footing, led by a sharp surge in Japanese and South Korean equities. Today we’re joined by Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, to explore the latest developments in corporate credit markets and explain the headlines in private credit. We also welcome Math...

Despite strong German inflation, global bond yields fell as markets shifted from inflation concerns to weakening growth signals. Soft Swiss KOF and Eurozone confidence data reinforced this move, pushing investors into bonds. Fed chair Jerome Powell said the central bank has limited influence over supply‑driven price spikes, reducing expectations of imminent US rate increases. In equities, Europe held up, while US markets weakened as sentiment stayed fragile, oil prices stayed high, and volatility persisted after a month of war. Gold is recovering, up nearly 10% from last week’s low. Overall, traders point to cleaner positioning, weak sentiment after a sh...

Risk-off sentiment dominated the end of last week, with the S&P 500 posting its fifth consecutive weekly decline. Markets remained broadly cautious amid scepticism about any near-term geopolitical de-escalation after several days of headline-driven volatility. Concerns over a prolonged conflict and the risk of spillover effects on inflation and demand as a result of higher oil prices continued to weigh on sentiment. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, highlights why lower oil prices are critical for equity markets and what it implies now that the S&P 500 has fallen below its 200-day moving average.

As the war in the Middle East continues, energy markets are still at the centre of investors’ attention. How resilient are global oil and gas flows, and what are the possible scenarios as the situation evolves? 

In this episode Helen Freer is joined by Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, to discuss the latest developments in the Middle East and their implications for energy markets and investors. The conversation covers the current level of oil supply disruptions, the effectiveness of alternative trade routes, the role of storage buffers, and the potential for lasting structural chan...

Markets saw another sharp risk‑off move yesterday as fears of escalation in the Iran war pushed investors out of everything except oil. Inflation worries strengthened after the OECD raised its US forecast, while growth concerns deepened in Europe, where data points to a weak start to 2026. Corporate news added pressure, with technology stocks hit by Meta’s legal setbacks and renewed doubts about memory‑chip demand. Asian markets steadied after the US extended its deadline for potential strikes on Iran’s power plant infrastructure, though geopolitical risks remain high. Key releases today include Spain’s inflation data, BYD’s earnings...

Global equities rose on Wednesday as hopes of a path to peace in the Middle East and lower oil prices lifted sentiment. The MSCI World Index gained nearly 1%, its best performance since 9 February, and bond yields eased sharply. Beneath the positive market tone, economic surveys from Switzerland and Germany pointed to weakening confidence. Company news was mixed: Arm Holdings rallied on progress in AI hardware, while Meta and YouTube lost a landmark social‑media addiction case. In Asia, sentiment reversed as oil rebounded and memory stocks weakened after Google flagged an LLM compression method that could cut memory use. Ca...

Markets continue to gyrate around the latest headlines on the Middle East conflict. Early weakness yesterday – driven by doubts over the status of any US–Iran negotiations – gave way to renewed optimism overnight and into Asian trading this morning, as the US outlined a 15‑point plan aimed at ending the conflict. Gold stabilised, while global PMIs added to inflation concerns and highlighted weakening economic momentum. In this context, Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, discusses the drivers behind the recent market behaviour, why investors should remain patient, and why Swiss equities continue to serve as an effective crisis hedge.

Global equities staged a sharp rebound yesterday after reports of a potential de‑escalation in the Middle East conflict. Brent crude saw one of its biggest intraday swings on record, and short‑dated US Treasury yields dropped sharply. Asian markets also retraced some of their steep losses from the previous session. In today’s episode, we’re joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who shares why he remains constructive on the Buildings & Infrastructure theme in Germany.

Equity markets in Asia have followed their US peers lower this morning after President’s Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was issued on Saturday evening. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have responded that the Strait will remain closed until their power plants are rebuilt. They also warned that if Washington carries out its threat to obliterate their power plants, they will target energy anddesalination facilities in the Gulf. US Treasury bonds continue to see their prices fall, gold and silver are lower, and oil is trading on every headline. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl...

With geopolitical tensions in the Middle East driving a new wave of uncertainty, investors are watching central bank decisions and accompanying statements very closely. How are policymakers responding, and what does this mean for fixed income positioning?

In this episode of The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Dario Messi, Julius Baer’s Head of Fixed Income Research, to discuss the week’s mammoth round of central bank meetings. The conversation explores how recent geopolitical developments are shaping inflation expectations, and the challenges that these pose for central banks. Dario shares his perspective on why a hawk...

Equity markets turned choppy heading into the weekend, while oil prices cooled as investors weighed efforts by the US and Israel to ease concerns over the Iran war. Anxieties over hawkish central bank policies and upward pressure on rates also weighed on sentiment. However, the market continues to be very sensitive to any signs of potential de-escalation. Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX Sales Switzerland, talks about gold and the impact of the oil price on currency markets and the US dollar in particular.

Equity markets are sliding and bond yields are climbing as oil and gas prices surge amid a new wave of escalation in the Middle East. At the same time, central bankers are holding their breath as inflation expectations edge higher. In today’s episode, we welcome Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who share their latest insights on the future trajectory of energy and precious metals prices.

Global markets held up yesterday despite rising oil prices and escalating tensions in Iran, with European and US equities closing higher. Asian markets rallied strongly overnight, led by South Korea and Japan. More broadly though, investors remain cautious as sentiment cools in Europe and central banks prepare for key policy decisions. Today we’re joined by Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research Analyst, to discuss this week’s monetary policy decisions, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, who brings us the latest on Swiss equities.

Markets rebounded on Monday as declining oil prices during the day briefly eased inflation concerns, supported by IEA oil supply assurances and US comments on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. European and US equities advanced, led by artificial‑intelligence names, with Nvidia in focus after its major product event. Australia’s central bank raised rates by 25 basis points. In Asia, markets flattened as oil prices climbed again amid Middle East tensions, and President Trump postponed his trip to China because of the Iran war, driving European equity futures into the red prior to open. Damien Ng from Next Gene...

US markets closed lower on the day, and the week, on Friday but the S&P 500 is still only 5% off its all-time high. The US military struck Iran’s Kharg Island on Friday but as yet they have not targeted the oil infrastructure. President Trump is now calling for a coalition of countries to send ships to help escort cargo through the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices a little lower again. China and Hong Kong’s equities have rallied this morning as have South Korea’s, and futures point to a positive start to a central bank ‘super week’. M...

As the conflict in Iran continues to drive oil prices higher and unsettle global markets, investors are assessing the implications for Asia and China. Meanwhile in Beijing, the annual Two Sessions meetings have just concluded, outlining policy priorities and economic targets for the year ahead.

In this episode of Moving Markets: The View Beyond, Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management. They discuss how geopolitical tensions are affecting Asian markets, their key takeaways from the Two Sessions, the outlook for Hong Kong...

Global markets endured another turbulent session as escalating tensions in the Middle East, including aggressive rhetoric from both Iran and the United States, drove oil prices higher and fuelled risk aversion. European and US equities extended their declines, with energy stocks bucking the trend. Strong US macro data contrasted with the geopolitical gloom, but new US trade investigations under Section 301 added to uncertainty. Private credit concerns also intensified, weighing heavily on major alternative asset managers. Asian markets traded lower overnight, gold slipped despite its safe‑haven appeal, and investors now turn their attention to a packed economic data agenda. Jo...

Tuesday’s rally in European stocks proved short‑lived as surging oil prices and renewed concerns over potential rate hikes unsettled investors. In contrast, US markets were more composed yesterday, with the tech‑heavy Nasdaq even managing to post a modest gain. Asian markets are trading lower today after Brent crude climbed above USD 100 a barrel amid fresh geopolitical escalations. In today’s episode, we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who shares his insights on aluminium and the potential disruption shaping the outlook for the market.

Markets reacted to volatile geopolitics as hopes of a swift resolution in the Iran crisis clashed with heightened military tensions. Strong gains in European equities and a sharp drop in oil prices highlighted a session defined by fragile optimism. With central banks watching inflation and safe havens like gold and the Swiss franc holding firm, uncertainty remains. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research at Julius Baer, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Julius Baer’s Equity Strategy Research team, discuss how recent geopolitical developments are shaping global bond and equity markets and how investors can navigate markets amid the fo...

Brent oil saw historic intraday swings yesterday, surging on supply fears before dropping sharply as the G7 discussed releasing reserves and the US president signalled the war could soon end. This shift helped European markets rebound from their lows and lifted US equities as safe‑haven flows unwound. Asian markets followed Wall Street higher, supported by strong corporate results and robust Chinese export data. Japan’s Q4 GDP beat expectations, although household spending weakened. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, shares his timely view on the oil price spike and what likely comes next.