Moving Markets

Burnham's debut, bond market jitters and the future of AI in BioPharma Markets were relatively quiet yesterday, but developments in the UK drew investor attention. Prime Minister Andy Burnham's policy announcements sparked concerns over the fiscal outlook, sending gilt yields higher, while John Healey's appointment as Chancellor raised fresh questions about economic policy. Meanwhile, semiconductor stocks rebounded, and oil prices swung sharply. Damien Ng from our Next Generation Research team joins us to discuss why AI's impact on BioPharma is likely to unfold over the coming years, rather than quarters.

Semiconductor stocks have plunged more than 20% from their recent highs, officially entering bear market territory after China’s Moonshot launched its Kimi K3 model sparking fears of intensifying global competition. Amid rising concerns over stretched valuations, geopolitical risks, and a critical earnings week ahead – including reports from Alphabet, SK Hynix, and Tesla – markets stand at a crossroads. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why the long-term uptrend of semiconductors remains intact despite the sell-off and what this means for broader equity markets.

After a sharp correction in AI-related stocks across Asia, investors are reassessing one of the market's strongest themes of the past year. In China, many AI and semiconductor-related names have fallen significantly from their recent highs, prompting debate over whether the pullback is creating a buying opportunity or signalling a more prolonged period of volatility.

In this episode, Richard Tang speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management, about the outlook for China's equity market following the recent AI sell-off. They discuss whether the correction has further to run, the prospects f...

Equity markets weakened as continued losses in semiconductor stocks and ongoing tensions in the Middle East weighed on risk sentiment, pushing major indices firmly into negative territory. At the same time, recent economic data highlighted the resilience of the US economy, adding another layer of complexity to the market outlook. Meanwhile, Netflix shares came under pressure in after-hours trading after the company forecast slower revenue growth. In today’s episode, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, joins us to discuss the latest moves in gold and the British pound, what's driving these markets, and the key levels in...

The current earnings season is seeing some bright spots, such as the Swiss luxury retailer Richemont and the US asset manager BlackRock. US producer prices came in below expectations, continuing to ease inflation concerns. In Asia, a rotation continues from this year's winners, Japan and South Korea, towards laggards such as Hong Kong, while South Korean regulators announced plans to address volatility linked to leveraged ETFs tied to SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. The US dollar stabilised after recent weakness and sterling rose to a one-year high. Meanwhile, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, discusses w...

Yesterday’s release of June CPI inflation data in the US provided a welcome boost to US equity and Treasury prices, as traders drastically lowered their bets on a Fed rate hike in July. The mood was further bolstered by Q2 earnings from Wall Street’s big five banks. The buoyant mood continued in Asia this morning, especially in tech, with the Kospi rallying over 7% at one point. We had two guest speakers on today’s podcast. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research highlights his key takeaway from the inflation report and outlines his expectations for Fed policy going...

Oil prices surged after fresh tensions in the Middle East raised concerns over global energy supplies, while higher inflation expectations pushed Treasury yields higher and weighed on equity markets, where semiconductor stocks led the declines. Investors are now turning their attention to the start of the US earnings season, with major banks reporting results today. Elsewhere, China’s trade data surprised to the upside, Singapore’s economy grew faster than expected, and the UK and Switzerland announced a new trade deal. On today’s show, we are joined by Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research, to discuss quantum computing and discov...

Markets are feeling the pressure this Monday morning as rising US-Iran tensions fuel higher oil prices, bond yields and the dollar, while equities drift lower. But with earnings season now taking centre stage, investors are asking a bigger question: can AI leaders and chipmakers justify their stellar gains from the first half of the year? Also in this episode: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why he believes market leadership is unlikely to change despite recent volatility, and why he has upgraded Financials.

With the UK preparing for a new phase of political leadership under the Labour Party's Andy Burnham, investors are watching closely for signals that could impact sterling and UK bonds. Despite headline changes at the top, market volatility has remained subdued. What’s behind the calm, and what should investors expect next?

In this episode of Julius Baer’s Moving Markets: The View Beyond, Ayako Lehmann is joined by David Meier, Chief Currency Strategist, and Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research Analyst, to examine the implications of the UK’s political reset for currency and fixed income markets. The di...

As peace talks could be back on the table in the Middle East, global equity markets breathed a sigh of relief and investors snapped up tech stocks around the world. The Kospi retreated from bear market territory rallying more than 5%. And Japanese bonds, equities and the currency were boosted by comments from the country’s finance minister that the government wants to encourage its pension funds to invest more in domestic assets. Despite geopolitical risks having returned as a key driver of bond-market performance, Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains why investors should avoid this temporary market no...

Market sentiment has weakened as renewed tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices and government bond yields higher. Spain’s benchmark equity index has come under additional pressure following President Trump’s threat to impose trade restrictions on the country. In this episode, Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro and Next Generation Research, joins us to discuss the latest surge in oil prices, the broader implications for inflation and whether the move reflects a lasting shift in the outlook or merely a temporary disruption.

Sharp semiconductor losses amid AI chip rivalry fears contrast with resilient broader markets, while escalating US-Iran tensions send oil surging 5%, highlighting growing jitters over geopolitics and inflation just as central banks signal rates may stay higher for longer. Investors will now focus on the upcoming earnings season for more guidance. Matthieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, shares his insights on what to expect. And Tim Gagie, Head of PB Sales (Geneva) FX & PM, talks about the British pound amid the political uncertainty in Britain and key levels to watch for gold.

US equities started the week strongly as AI-related stocks rebounded yesterday and the Dow Jones closed above 53,000 for the first time. Broadcom gained after extending its partnership with Apple, while Microsoft slipped following plans to cut jobs as it reallocates resources towards AI infrastructure. In Europe, most indices were down, although Germany’s DAX bucked the trend and reached a new record high, and EasyJet surged on takeover news. Asian markets today came under pressure, led by South Korea’s Kospi, where a trading halt was triggered when the index fell more than 8%. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Rese...

Softer inflation data supported sentiment in the eurozone, while in the US, comments by Fed chair Kevin Warsh on inflation and a weaker-than-expected labour market report lifted equities last week. Gold rose and the USD weakened. Brent crude is holding near USD 72 despite OPEC+ announcing an output increase over the weekend. In Asia, attention is on SK Hynix ahead of its USD 29 billion US listing, which could become the largest-ever foreign IPO. SpaceX is also in focus as the expiry of the analyst quiet period is expected to trigger a wave of research reports and price targets. Mensur Pocinci...

As the United States marks 250 years of independence, investors are asking whether its markets can continue to deliver long-term outperformance in the face of elevated valuations and global competition. What are America’s enduring structural advantages, and could we be entering a new investment era?

In this episode of The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer, to discuss the investability of the US market as it celebrates a major milestone. Together, they examine the historical drivers of US market leadership, from industrialisation to the current wave of ar...

US job growth slowed significantly in June, giving support to our economists’ view that the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates again this year. This pushed Treasury yields and the USD lower, while supporting gold and most equities. US technology and semiconductor stocks fell sharply after reports that Anthropic is looking into developing its own AI chip together with Samsung Electronics. European marketsrose on Brent oil moving towards USD 70 per barrel, reduced rate-hike expectations by the Fed and new German growth measures. Asian equities outperformed, driven by gains in semiconductor stocks and encouraging economic data from China an...

Equity markets began the third quarter on a slightly subdued note, with semiconductor stocks coming under particular pressure. In contrast, Meta emerged as one of the standout performers yesterday, with its shares rallying on reports that the company is actively developing a cloud business aimed at selling AI computing power. Fixed income markets remained relatively calm as investors awaited one of the week’s key economic releases: the June US jobs report, due later today. In today’s episode, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joins us to discuss the potential implications of President Trump’s decision on copper...

Markets closed a volatile quarter with sharply lower oil and gold prices, while AI optimism continued to support equities on both sides of the Atlantic. European stocks posted their strongest quarter in over five years, and US markets remained resilient despite weakness in the ‘Magnificent Seven’. In today’s show, we also discuss easing eurozone inflation, strong US labour market data and key developments across Asia. In addition, our fixed income research analyst Eirini Tsekeridou joins us to explain why bond yields have remained elevated despite falling oil prices, and to discuss the impact of AI on fixed income market...

After tensions rose again in the Middle East over the weekend, news yesterday that US envoys will travel to Doha for fresh talks with Iran today allowed markets room to rally. The Dow Jones, which now includes Alphabet, ended yesterday’s session above 52,000 for the first time. Asia continued the rally overnight with the Kospi set to exceed a 105% year-to-date performance by the end of its session. Meanwhile, the yen fell to a 40-year low against the US dollar. And, as Europe melts in the midst of the highest June temperatures on record, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Re...

US-Iran tensions eased over the weekend, supporting risk sentiment going into the new week. However, Asian markets are mixed despite South Korea's pledge of major semiconductor investment, as tech sector concerns temper enthusiasm. Markus Wachter from our Technical Analysis team talks about the change in the technical picture of the US dollar, why they do not expect the S&P 500 to fall into correction territory, and the outlook for gold. Meanwhile, Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, gives an update on Asian equity markets, including his thoughts on why China’s stock market has been disappointing lately.

...

With 2026 at its midpoint, investors are navigating an environment marked by geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and shifting growth dynamics across major economies. How are asset allocators responding, and what does this mean for portfolio construction in the months ahead?

In this episode of The View Beyond, Ayako Lehmann is joined by David Kohl, Chief Economist, and Yves Klenk, Head of Client Coverage and Advisory, to examine the mid-year market outlook from an investor’s perspective. The discussion covers the impact of ongoing conflicts on commodity prices, the evolution of inflation expectations, and why Europe’s growth outlook is f...

There was a mixed picture in financial markets yesterday as persistent US inflation continues to test the Federal Reserve’s patience. European equities climbed to fresh record highs, boosted by healthcare and chip stocks, while US markets diverged, with tech weakness weighing on the Nasdaq. Overnight, Asia-Pacific markets came under pressure, led by sharp declines in Japan and South Korea, while oil volatility continues amid uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz. In today’s show, we are joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, who shares his views on the US dollar, gold and broader currency dynam...

Not only did Micron’s fiscal Q3 earnings exceed expectations yesterday, but the company also guided for current-quarter revenue of USD 50 billion, positively surprising analysts and investors and boosting its share price by 16%. The euphoria around the announcement spilled over into other chip names, and Asia’s markets, excluding Hong Kong, all rallied overnight. Oil prices and bond yields have fallen as flows through the Strait of Hormuz have continued to ramp up, and expectations of rate hikes have receded. Today’s PCE reading in the US might provide more clues. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joined today’...

Equity markets are facing renewed pressure as investors question whether AI-driven stocks, particularly semiconductors, can sustain their remarkable rally. All eyes are on Micron, set to report earnings after today’s close in New York, for clues on the sector’s next move. At the same time, the broader economic backdrop remains supportive, with US business activity expanding at its fastest pace in five months. In today’s episode, Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, shares his perspective on newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s communication framework – and what it could mean for markets and investors.

Markets reacted cautiously after the US granted Iran a temporary 60‑day licence to sell oil in USD. Euro area consumer confidence remained weak in June, and pressure on Hermès weighed on luxury stocks. In the UK, Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation adds to a decade of political instability, but markets stayed calm. ECB president Christine Lagarde said that the central bank doesn’t need to react more forcefully to the fallout from the Middle East conflict. In US equities, investors rotated out of large tech stocks into small caps. In Asia, speculation about USD/JPY intervention grew after talks b...

Progress in US–Iran talks in Switzerland helped ease geopolitical concerns. And while positive momentum in Asian tech lifted regional markets, European and US equity futures have started the week on a more cautious footing. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, takes a closer look at the current trend in the S&P 500, shares his view on the ‘Magnificent Seven’, and outlines which segment of the US market he expects to outperform.

Against a shifting macro backdrop, markets are responding to easing geopolitical tensions following a US-Iran peace deal, with oil prices falling sharply and Asian equities rallying. Within China, however, a stark divergence persists: Hong Kong’s “old tech” sector has lagged, while mainland “new tech,” particularly AI infrastructure, continues to attract strong inflows and outperform.

In this episode, Richard Tang speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management, about China’s uneven market outlook. They discuss the prospects for a rebound in Hong Kong internet stocks, the sustainability of the AI rally and sig...

Global markets have been driven this week by a US–Iran deal, a more hawkish Fed under Kevin Warsh, and a Bank of Japan rate hike to multi-decade highs. Markets are now pricing in further US policy tightening, with record Treasury futures volumes signalling strong expectations for rate rises. Equities were mixed yesterday, with early weakness offset by gains in semiconductor stocks. Central banks remain in focus, as the Bank of England held rates and the Swiss National Bank maintained ultra-loose policy amid low inflation. Oil fell below USD 80 on improved supply. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva, hi...

European equities extended their upward momentum, while US markets faced selling pressure after the first FOMC meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a surprisingly hawkish tone, pushing Treasury yields higher. Yet, sentiment later shifted again as news of a signed memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran lifted Asian markets and drove US equity futures firmly into positive territory. In today’s episode, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, explores how easing geopolitical tensions could reshape the outlook for global energy markets.

SpaceX moves beyond rockets with its acquisition of AI firm Anysphere, igniting investor excitement and propelling the company to become the world’s fifth-most valuable after its blockbuster IPO. As technology and geopolitics continue to reshape markets, attention now turns to today’s FOMC decision and Kevin Warsh’s first press conference as Fed Chair. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, outlines what to expect from the Fed, while Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, discusses the impact of mega-IPOs and a potential US–Iran deal on equity markets, as well as how investors should position portfolios for the...

Markets rallied strongly yesterday as easing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran lifted risk sentiment, with European equities reaching fresh record highs and US indices surging across the board. Optimism was driven by a framework agreement pointing towards a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, although uncertainty remains around the timeline and terms. Oil prices fell sharply, while gold moved higher amid softer rate expectations and a weaker dollar. Overnight, central banks remained in focus, with the Bank of Japan delivering its first rate hike since 1995, while weak macro data out of China reinforced concerns about slowing...

Yesterday, the US and Iran agreed to the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon. The deal is set to be signed on Friday and still allows for a 60-day window to negotiate issues around Iran’s nuclear program. Evidently some details are still to be ironed out, but equity and bond markets have reacted positively, with Asia trading higher this morning and futures pointing to a higher opening globally today. Added to this, the price of oil has already dropped more than 4% and gold has climbed 3%. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, pr...

As global markets adjust to a world where capital is no longer abundant, investors face new challenges and opportunities. How should they adapt their portfolios, and what are the most compelling prospects for the second half of 2026?
 
Christian Gattiker, Head of Research at Julius Baer, and Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, join Bernadette Anderko to discuss Julius Baer’s mid-year market outlook. The conversation dissects the shift from a savings glut to a savings grab, and focuses on why selectivity and capital discipline are paramount. Mark and Christian explain the outlook for equities and fixed income, inv...

President Trump halted strikes on Iran yesterday and announced that a peace deal will be signed imminently. Markets reacted accordingly, with oil prices falling and equities rallying. Chip stocks contributed to the rally in both the US and Asia overnight. Even US Treasuries held on to their gains, as markets lowered their bets on a Fed rate hike in October from 51% to 36%. SpaceX raised USD 75 billion, pricing itsshares at USD 135 – its debut will be a big focus later today. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Sales in Geneva, joined today’s podcast for his weekly take on all things currency and...

While European markets proved more resilient, US equities declined amid renewed escalation in the Middle East and fresh inflation data highlighting mounting pressure on US household budgets, driven in part by higher energy costs. In today’s episode, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, shares his outlook on gold and silver in this environment. We also hear from Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, who previews the European Central Bank’s upcoming rate decision and discusses the implications for investors.

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on A...

Markets saw a cautious session yesterday, as investors remained on edge amid ongoing Middle East uncertainty, with both European and US equities ending broadly lower. Overnight, tensions escalated sharply, with US strikes on Iran followed by retaliatory actions across the Gulf, placing further strain on an already fragile ceasefire. Despite these developments, oil prices remained relatively contained. Macro data painted a mixed but broadly stable picture, with solid US housing demand, a sharply narrowing trade deficit, and modest growth signals from Europe. In Asia, rising producer prices in China and Japan highlighted ongoing cost pressures, keeping central banks in...

European equities closed off their lows as oil reversed most of its early 5% gain after easing Middle East tensions, leaving Brent near USD 94. Weak German factory orders weighed on sentiment, while stocks diverged, with Zealand Pharma down 23% and Banca Monte dei Paschi up 13% on takeover news. In the US, technology led gains as chip stocks rebounded, though sentiment softened after Apple’s developer conference. Strong demand for SpaceX’s IPO and OpenAI’s filing point to a solid pipeline. Asian markets followed the tech rebound, led by Korea and Japan, while Hong Kong lagged and China reported stronger-than-expected trade data...

The market reaction to Friday’s better-than-expected US jobs report started bad and got worse. The Nasdaq closed down 4.2%, marking its steepest decline since April 2025, following ‘Liberation Day’. The sell-off spread to Asia this morning, where investors slammed the brakes on the red-hot AI rally. South Korea’s KOSPI fell by more than 8%, triggering circuit breakers. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why he thinks the latest weakness in tech is a well-deserved pause, and why gold is on the watch list.

The role of a Chief Investment Officer is multifaceted – acting as both the guardian and the architect of a company’s investment process, and preventing people from making mistakes that might destroy value. A key requisite for the job is the ability to stay calm amid the panic when a global crisis hits.

In this special edition of The View Beyond, produced jointly with the World Economic Forum's Radio Davos, Bernadette Anderko and WEF Editor Robin Pomeroy sit down with Julius Baer's Group CIO Yves Bonzon to explore the history and nature of recent crises. Yves has spen...

Markets delivered a mixed session yesterday, driven by geopolitical tensions, a sharp semiconductor sell-off following Broadcom’s disappointing results, and steady macro data from Switzerland and the US. Oil remained driven by developments in the Middle East, while gold fluctuated alongside moves in the dollar and bond yields. European equities closed higher despite lingering uncertainty, while the US showed a clear divergence: the Dow reached a record high, supported by defensive stocks, as tech weakness weighed on the Nasdaq. In Asia, the rotation out of tech continued, pressuring chip-heavy markets such as South Korea and Japan, with broader sentiment re...