Moving Markets

Despite US consumer confidence falling to a record low, the S&P 500 extended gains last week, driven by semiconductors, as AI enthusiasm remains strong and crowded. Global equities also advanced, led by Europe and Japan. Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair, while Governor Waller emphasised inflation risks. Middle East tensions remain volatile, with shifting ceasefire prospects, US military action, and moves in oil, gold, and bonds. This week, focus turns to US PCE inflation, growth data, and key geopolitical meetings in Asia. Damian Ng, Next Generation Research, talks about why the recent outbreak of the Ebola virus...

The petrodollar system has long been a cornerstone of global finance, underpinning the US dollar’s dominance for decades. But as energy markets shift, and talk of de-dollarisation grows louder, is this system now fading? And what could that mean for the future global order?

In this episode of The View Beyond, Jan Bopp is joined by Julius Baer’s currency strategist, David Meier, and Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro and Next Generation Research, to explore the origins and evolution of the petrodollar system, the impact of the US shale oil revolution, and the practical realities of de...

Markets remained choppy as weak PMI data across Europe and the UK signalled slowing growth, while US data painted a mixed but still resilient picture. Oil prices were volatile amid shifting headlines around Iran, underlining ongoing geopolitical sensitivity. Equities in both Europe and the US ended modestly higher despite intraday swings, with pockets of strength in sectors like satellites and quantum computing following fresh investment momentum. Overnight, softer inflation in Japan supported Asian markets, while US yields edged lower and the dollar held firm. Today, we were joined by Bence Boldvai from our FX & Precious Metals team, who shared...

European and US stock markets rallied yesterday after President Trump hinted that the US administration is in the final stages of an agreement to end the war with Iran. The 10-year US Treasury shaved 9 basis points off the previous session’s yield. Asian markets were further boosted overnight by an impressive set of results from NVIDIA. Warnings did come in from the Fed though, in the form of the minutes of its last meeting, which revealed a heightened level of disagreement about where rates should go next and a majority of participants highlighting that rates will need to rise if...

US markets dipped amid rising long-term bond yields, with the 30-year Treasury hitting the highest level in almost two decades fuelled by inflation fears and potential Fed tightening. Geopolitical tensions and key upcoming catalysts, including Nvidia’s earnings and FOMC minutes, keep investors on edge. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains what is behind the recent surge in bond yields and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, discusses the implications for equity markets and outlines his key message for the second half of the year.

Global equities are caught between hopes for a peace deal and rising Middle East tensions, with Brent fluctuating around USD 100 per barrel. In the US, strong market breadth contrasts with weakness in technology stocks, weighing on major equity indices. Japan and Switzerland posted stronger-than-expected Q1 growth, highlighting resilience despite geopolitical tensions and high oil prices. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, discusses India’s decision to double import duties on gold and silver.

Global markets are kicking off the week on the back foot as government bond yields surge to multi-year highs, reigniting concerns about stagflation. Oil prices climbed another 2% overnight, with no quick resolution in sight for the ongoing Middle East tensions. In today’s episode, we’re joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who shares his outlook on whether US 10-year Treasury yields could reach the 5% mark. He also explains why the rally in semiconductor stocks may be due for a pause – and why that might actually be a good thing.

Despite geopolitical tensions, US equity markets have reached record highs, with artificial intelligence at the heart of this surge. What is driving these historic moves? How are investors positioning themselves to both capture the opportunities and manage the risks? 

In this episode of The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, and Manuel Villegas, Co-Manager of the Julius Baer Next Generation Equity Fund. They explore the rapid development of AI, the unprecedented growth in data centre infrastructure, and the evolving dynamics of the global value chain. The d...

Markets were driven by headlines from the Trump–Xi summit in Beijing, where progress on trade and a surprise easing of US chip export restrictions to major Chinese tech firms lifted sentiment, particularly in technology. European equities closed higher and US indices reached fresh record highs, supported by strong earnings from Cisco, although gains in Asia faded as rising Treasury yields and renewed rate hike expectations weighed on sentiment. Corporate news was mixed, while Crypto-related stocks rallied following regulatory progress. Commodities showed divergence, with oil edging higher and metals softer. Overnight, Asian equities declined broadly, led by a sharp se...

Markets showed a broad risk-off tone on Tuesday, with equities weaker and bond yields moving higher. Oil prices surged as hopes for a US–Iran deal faded, stoking inflation concerns after stronger-than-expected US inflation data. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains the implications for bond markets and shares his view on UK gilts amid ongoing political turmoil. And Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategist, explains why he likes the Communications sector and highlights areas of strength and weakness within European equities.

European markets were weighed down by declines in the luxury sector yesterday, as concerns over weakening global demand dampened sentiment. In contrast, major US indices reached fresh record highs, led by strong gains in the technology sector. Meanwhile, oil prices are climbing again this morning amid signs that the Middle East ceasefire may be unravelling. Today, we are joined by Dr. Damien Ng from Next Generation Research, who will share his insights on the hantavirus outbreak and the role genomics and digital health tools are playing.

Strong earnings and resilient jobs data are prompting markets to rule out rate cuts this year. Semiconductor stocks continue to lead gains across the US and Asia, with South Korea and Japan hitting new highs, supported by AI investment. Inflation pressures reflected in China’s data release, rising oil prices amid a fragile Middle East ceasefire, and broader geopolitical risks remain in focus ahead of a busy week of data and events, including inflation releases from the US, Germany and Japan, the Trump–Xi meeting, the King’s Speech in the UK, and Kevin Warsh taking over the leadership at the...

Global equity markets have performed strongly, led by the AI-driven rally across the US, Japan, and Korea, while China’s headline indices have lagged in comparison. Yet beneath the surface, performance has been more nuanced, with parts of the market showing stronger momentum than index-level data suggests.

In this episode, Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management. They discuss why China’s markets have underperformed on the surface, whether traditional benchmarks are capturing the right parts of the economy, and...

Markets remained on edge as ongoing uncertainty around a potential US–Iran agreement drove a clear risk‑off tone. European equities moved broadly lower, while US indices pulled back after briefly touching record highs, weighed down by weakness in technology and semiconductors. Oil prices proved volatile but ultimately rebounded, with both Brent and WTI holding elevated levels, while gold edged higher. In fixed income, US yields ticked up as investors reassessed inflation risks linked to energy markets. Central banks painted a mixed picture, with Norway surprising to the upside on rates, while Sweden held steady. In Asia, markets were most...

Hopes grew yesterday that the US and Iran might be able to seal a deal to end the conflict, with a memorandum of understanding apparently having been sent by the US to Iran. The oil price dropped and with it so did bond yields. Meanwhile, global stock markets continued to rally and were given a further boost by artificial intelligence firms and yet more good news from earnings calls. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, joins the podcast to explain why he believes that the Strait of Hormuz may lose its strategic importance in the future, a...

Semiconductor stocks, from Intel to Samsung Electronics, are pushing US and Asian equities to new all‑time highs. Strong earnings from Anheuser‑Busch and Unicredit also lifted European markets. US services activity slowed in April, while inflation pressures stayed elevated. UK yields surged on inflation and fiscal concerns, Swiss data showed higher headline but subdued core inflation, and PMIs in China and India pointed to resilience. The JPY continues to strengthen after last week’s lows, likely reflecting FX intervention. Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research, notes while European earnings are rising, the momentum is weaker than in the US where...

After several days of solid gains, markets paused yesterday as risk aversion returned, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and a sharp rise in oil prices. European equities bore the brunt of the sell-off, while major US indices also closed lower. In today’s episode, we’re joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, to unpack the outlook for hyperscalers following last week’s earnings, and what it means for the road ahead.

Geopolitics continues to dominate as investors weigh mixed Middle East messages. Trump has signalled his openness to Iran talks while also warning of renewed conflict and saying the US will begin guiding ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Global equities are rallying on AI optimism and strong tech earnings, even as central banks stay cautious amid uneven growth and sticky inflation. A pivotal week of earnings and data lies ahead. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, discusses a potential topping process in oil and why technicals suggest the correction in US equities may be ending.

With geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility top of mind, investors are seeking tools to help navigate an increasingly complex landscape. How can structured products add value to portfolios in this environment?

In this episode of Julius Baer’s Moving Markets: The View Beyond podcast, Helen Freer is joined by Yves Klenk, Head of Client Coverage and Advisory, and Maximiliano Ranieri, Head of Structured Products Solutions Sales Geneva, to discuss the role of structured products in portfolios today. The conversation covers the current macroeconomic backdrop, the scenarios where structured products can complement traditional investments, and the four main ca...

The US Federal Reserve remains on hold but is the most divided since 1992. Kevin Warsh advanced in a key Senate vote to become the new chairman of the Fed next month. The ascent of the oil price continues amid reports of another military escalation. Major US technology firms reaffirmed heavy AI investment in their earnings releases, but results differed sharply across the companies reporting yesterday: Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation, talks about the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC amid tectonic shifts in the oil market and our outlook for oil...

Oil prices surged above USD 110 on supply concerns stemming from the stalled Iran war and news of an extended blockade of Iran. The rally was capped by historic news that the UAE will exit OPEC. In equities, AI-driven gains faltered amid questions about OpenAI’s growth prospects. With mega-cap technology firms Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft set to report earnings today, attention will also turn to the Federal Reserve’s policy decision at Jerome Powell’s final meeting as Chair, setting the stage for a pivotal rest of the week. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains why he doe...

Markets started the week on a cautious note as geopolitics, central bank meetings and rising oil prices kept risk appetite in check. European equities slipped, while US indices hovered near record highs, supported by big tech, despite a pause in the semiconductor rally. AI remained firmly in focus after OpenAI signalled a shift in its relationship with Microsoft. Outside of tech, energy markets drew attention as Shell announced a major acquisition to boost long‑term production. Bond yields edged higher in the US, as investors positioned ahead of the Fed, while commodities stayed volatile and Asian markets were mixed fo...

Markets have kicked off the week on a strong note, with Asian - particularly tech - stocks rallying amid renewed diplomatic efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East and an exceptionally robust earnings season. The days ahead will be pivotal, with major central banks delivering key monetary policy decisions and several members of the “Magnificent 7” set to report earnings. In this episode, we’re joined by Markus Wachter from Technical Analysis, who shares why he believes both equity markets and gold still have room to run.

In an environment marked by higher inflation, geopolitical uncertainty and increased market volatility, private infrastructure is regaining focus as a resilient allocation.

In this episode of Moving Markets: The View Beyond, William Fong, Head of Alternatives Specialists Asia & Middle East at Julius Baer, speaks with Daniel McCormack, Head of Research at Macquarie Asset Management's Client Solutions Group, about the shifting global macro landscape and how private infrastructure can play a vital dual role in portfolios - providing resilience through inflation linkage and essential services, while positioning investors for long‑term growth driven by digitalisation, AI‑led data dema...

Global markets sent mixed signals as US data pointed to surprising resilience, while the eurozone slipped back into contraction. Rising energy prices remain a key concern, driving inflation pressures and weighing on confidence. Equity markets reflected this caution yesterday, with US tech stocks pulling back as several software names underperformed after reporting earnings. Meanwhile, signs of Swiss National Bank FX intervention are emerging, while oil prices continue to climb and gold has moved lower. Asia‑Pacific markets were mostly weaker, with Japan the notable exception following firmer inflation data ahead of next week’s Bank of Japan meeting. Joining our...

New record highs were set in the US trading session on Wednesday as markets embraced the ceasefire extension and more strong Q1 earnings. But despite Asian markets rallying at the open, they failed to hold onto their gains as investors’ focus returned to the fact that the Strait of Hormuz effectively remains closed for business. As EU leaders meet to discuss how to address the energy price shock, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, explains why he believes that Europe’s energy resilience is overlooked – not only is the continent exiting the heating season but drivers are inc...

Geopolitical tensions and a late ceasefire extension kept markets on edge. Equities were lower in Tuesday’s trading session as stocks ended near session lows. Strong nominal US retail sales and upbeat earnings clashed with fading optimism. Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Strategist, shares his takeaways from Fed Chair-to-be Kevin Warsh’s Senate hearing and the implications for bond markets. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, also joins the show to provide an update on the ongoing earnings season and outline what investors should be watching in the weeks ahead.

After a brief bout of optimism on Friday, concerns over a potential escalation between the US and Iran swiftly re-emerged yesterday. Oil prices climbed by around 5%, while equity markets came under pressure. Europe’s broad indices fell by roughly 0.8%, and all major U.S. indices closed slightly lower, with the Nasdaq snapping a 14-session winning streak. In today’s episode, we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who shares his insights on silver.

The first quarter of 2026 has presented investors with complex and worsening financial conditions, volatile oil prices, and heightened geopolitical tensions. Q1 earnings are already being reported, and so far, the indications have been promising. What are the expectations for the rest of the season? And what should investors be watching out for?

In this episode of The View Beyond Podcast, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research at Julius Baer, to preview the first-quarter earnings season and explore how markets are dealing with the ongoing uncertainty. They examine the resilience of equity...

Wall Street ended modestly higher yesterday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at record highs following a twelfth consecutive advance. US markets reacted positively to the announcement of a 10‑day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel. Earnings also provided support, led by banks and semiconductor companies, while luxury remained the weak spot this week. Notably, shares of Charles Schwab and Netflix both fell sharply yesterday after releasing their results. US economic data was mixed, with industrial production declining but survey indicators staying firm. In Europe, inflation surprised to the upside and Germany cut its growth forecast for the year. Th...

President Trump indicated that Tehran wants to make a deal yesterday and officials from Pakistan signalled that new talks are planned. Meanwhile, it seems as if Israel and Lebanon might also be poised to have ceasefire discussions. US and Asia stock markets have reacted very positively with several indices surging to new all-time highs. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, joins the podcast to unravel the complicated nuances of different fuel prices and explain why he believes that oil prices might now be past their peak. 

Investors grapple with rising stagflation fears amid slowing growth and persistent inflation, yet optimism over renewed US-Iran peace talks has fuelled a broad equity rally, pushing major markets close to record highs. Banks are reporting booming trading revenues even as they sounded a note of caution about the ripple effect of higher oil prices. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, discusses how major central banks may respond to the repercussions of the war and whether credit markets can benefit from the equity rebound.

After an early sell-off, equities rebounded during the trading session following President Trump’s comments that further negotiations with Iran - and a potential deal - remain within reach in the coming days. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 moved back into positive territory for the year, while oil prices slipped below USD 100 per barrel once again. In today’s episode, we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who shares his outlook on cybersecurity and explains why we remain constructive on the theme going forward.

Last week’s market rally was driven by ceasefire optimism and a sharp drop in oil prices, lifting equities despite growing signs of economic strain and energy‑led inflation pressures, although US core inflation in March (excluding energy) remained contained. Over the weekend, geopolitical risks moved back to centre stage as failed US–Iran talks and an effective embargo on Iranian oil pushed energy prices higher, shifting markets into a cautious risk‑off stance. The earnings season begins in earnest today, with results set to test whether corporate profits can withstand rising costs and heightened uncertainty. Notable companies reporting today in...

The US and Iran have agreed to a two‑week ceasefire in the Middle East conflict, but the deal continues to look fragile. Markets have reacted swiftly, with crude oil prices falling sharply while gold and equity markets rebounded. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, keeping energy supply risks firmly in focus. In this complex backdrop, how attractive is the current market risk‑reward, and how might the geopolitical landscape evolve from here?

Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotu...

Equity markets are trading higher amid renewed optimism that the ceasefire will hold, reinforced by Israel’s signal that it is ready to enter direct negotiations with Lebanon. Meanwhile, oil prices continue to rebound following Wednesday’s sharp losses. Investors’ focus now turns to today’s US CPI data for March. In this episode, we are joined by Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX Sales Switzerland, who shares his perspective on what lies ahead for the US dollar.

The last 24 hours were a game of two halves for equity markets – Europe and the US rallied as they celebrated the Middle East ceasefire and crude oil ended Wednesday 16% lower. But then the cracks in the terms of the ceasefire appeared – Israel attacked Lebanon, which Iran said breached the agreement, and Iran claimed that it has the right to enrich uranium, which the US says it does not. And so, oil rose again and Asian equity markets fell. Our Head of Next Generation Research, Carsten Menke, joins the podcast today to unravel the reaction of commodity markets to the ongo...

Oil fell the most in nearly six years, while stocks surged after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire just hours before a Trump-imposed deadline, giving markets a brief respite from Middle East–driven turbulence. Asian equity markets jumped, Treasuries rallied, the US dollar weakened, and precious metals advanced. Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Strategist, discusses the implications for bond markets, while Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, joins the show to outline what to expect from the upcoming earnings season.

Equity gains on Monday were modest and fragile. Risk appetite is fading as investors focus on President Trump’s deadline, rising oil prices, and Middle East tensions. Strong US payrolls on Friday contrast with weaker services employment and rising input costs on Monday, leaving uncertainty over whether inflation pressures will persist. Technology remains a key theme: strong AI demand supported Samsung and Broadcom, while potential IPOs from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI point to rising competition for a limited pool of capital. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, comments on developments in energy markets ahead of Pre...

Despite a significant selloff following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, global emerging market equities have demonstrated a surprising degree of resilience. What explains this contained drawdown, and how should investors differentiate across regions even as volatility persists?