Moving Markets

Global equities staged a powerful comeback led by technology and semiconductors, even as an FBI investigation into Nvidia's CEO unfolded with all the intrigue of a James Bond plot. Broader market resilience, Anthropic's bold IPO plans, sliding oil prices on easing geopolitical tensions, and today's crucial US inflation data round out a packed agenda for investors navigating elevated volatility. Enrico Chinello from our Next Generation Research team dives deeper into what has changed for the AI-buildout after the fallout from last week’s US midterm elections and what it means for investors going forward.

The Democrats' sweeping election victory sparked sharp market volatility last week, with an initial rally quickly giving way to a technology-led sell-off as investors reassessed the outlook for AI investment and data centre expansion. Capital rotated into less AI-exposed markets, supporting Chinese and Indian equities while Europe held up relatively well. Beyond equities, oil prices recorded one of their steepest declines since 2020, while gold and the USD advanced. Asian markets are attempting a fragile rebound at the start of the week. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, views last week's moves as a liquidation event: these have historically been...

The Democrats recorded a full sweep at the US midterms 2026. What does this mean for Asian markets, what can investors expect from the Federal Reserve going forward and will this also impact the oil price and therefore the inflation picture?

In this episode, Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer, discusses with Ayako Lehmann, Head of Webcasts & Video, why the outlook is rather optimistic for Asian markets, why both the US Dollar and oil price could potentially weaken going forward and to what extent the AI investment cycle remains important, but should be balanced out...

All three of the main US indices closed lower yesterday but it was AI-connected stocks that suffered the most and which sent the Nasdaq Composite 5.5% lower on the day. Following the Democratic sweep at the midterms, investors are nervous about the possible impact on data centre development. The nerves were felt around the globe, with many European indices and nearly all of Asia’s closing lower yesterday and this morning. There were, however, a few exceptions. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, provides a timely and insightful update on what is happening in both oil and nat...

Global markets rallied after the Democrats secured control of both chambers of Congress in the US midterm elections, fuelling hopes of reduced policy uncertainty and easing geopolitical tensions. Oil prices plunged nearly 9% as investors bet on a faster resolution to the US-Iran conflict, while bond yields fell and equities surged on both sides of the Atlantic. However, technology stocks were mixed, with AI platform giants advancing, while semiconductor and data centre shares came under pressure. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, joins today’s show to talk about the impact of the Democratic sweep on currencies and me...

Markets initially sold off after the Democratic blue wave in the US midterms, but much of the decline in equities, bond yields and the dollar quickly reversed. AI sentiment remained resilient, with AMD raising guidance and Meta attracting strong demand for its USD 15 billion bond issue. Gold climbed above USD 4,000 per ounce on the prospect of greater political uncertainty, while Asian markets rebounded despite softer Chinese services data. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, sees political gridlock as supportive for US Treasuries and highlights attractive value in high-quality intermediate-duration bonds. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, believes policy...

A dramatic drop in oil prices set the tone for global markets yesterday, as investors reacted to signs of progress in US-Iran negotiations. Lower energy prices boosted European equities and particularly travel and leisure stocks, but concerns surrounding the AI trade continued to drag on US technology names. China's yuan is set for its biggest one-day drop against the dollar for six months today, after the central bank said it would raise the amount of foreign currency that financial institutions have to set aside as reserves. The US midterm elections dominate the political agenda today, with polls suggesting that...

The last trading day of October saw the rotation trade continue with the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 falling more than the blue-chip Dow Jones, which was also the only one of the three indices to end the month higher than it began it. Asian markets - with the exception of Japan - have rallied at the start of this week, and there has been good news in China, signalling that authorities have renewed their efforts to halt a slump. In a week where investors might become distracted by US politics, Head of Technical Analysis, Mensur Pocinci, delves into...

Unrest in France has escalated from student protests to broader concerns about public finances and long-term growth, putting French assets under pressure and raising questions about potential contagion across Europe. Investors are now assessing which sectors and asset classes are most exposed and whether the turmoil could trigger wider instability.

In this episode, Bernadette Anderko is joined by David Kohl, Chief Economist at Julius Baer, and Nenad Dinic, European Equity Strategist at Julius Baer, to analyse the drivers behind the French protests, the implications for French government bonds and equities, and the likelihood of spillover into other...

Markets are digesting a major ECB surprise as Christine Lagarde announces her early departure while keeping the door open to another rate hike. Meanwhile, investors are rotating out of technology despite resilient US growth, with Alphabet, Amazon, and Intel all under pressure. We also discuss the risk-off mood sweeping Asia, the Bank of Japan's milestone inflation declaration, and the largest crypto hack on record. Tim Gagie, Head of FX and Precious Metals Advisory Geneva, joins us to discuss the euro, the sell-off in precious metals and the sharp move in the Brazilian real following the surprise election outcome.

Chip stocks lifted US stock markets, helping them to close higher on Wednesday, but Alphabet and Samsung's earnings have since dampened investors' enthusiasm. The Bank of Canada raised rates by 25 basis points whilst the Fed stayed on hold. Today it's Europe's turn and the ECB is also expected to keep its powder dry. Gold dipped below the magic USD 4,000 per ounce this week and silver has fallen too. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, offers his insights into what might be behind the moves, and shares his views on the longer-term outlook for both precious metals.

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Anthropic’s IPO filing has reignited enthusiasm for the technology and semiconductor sectors, providing fresh momentum for the broader AI ecosystem ahead of earnings releases from Microsoft and Alphabet after the US market close today. Meanwhile, government bond yields are edging higher this morning as investors remain cautious ahead of policy meetings from the world's three major central banks in the coming days. In today’s episode, we are joined by Eirini Tsekeridou from Fixed Income Research and Nenad Dinic from Equity Strategy Research. They discuss what investors can expect from Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s fourt...

Global equities rallied as optimism around artificial intelligence returned to the market, with Anthropic's IPO filing helping to revive sentiment toward the sector. Also, Meta announced massive fundraising plans. A circuit breaker was triggered in Brazil as stock markets plunged after the surprise re-election of President Lula da Silva. Today, Asian markets are mixed but South Korea's KOSPI gained on the revival of the AI trade. The Fed begins its latest policy meeting in what is a crucial week for central bank meetings and earnings. Dr. Damien Ng joins the podcast today to discuss wearables and how they are...

Markets are pulling investors in several directions at once. Strong US economic data is colliding with growing questions over AI spending, while French bond markets have seen historic moves and Middle East tensions have pushed oil prices sharply higher. In Brazil, Lula's surprise election victory is a market earthquake. It promises to be a critical week, with the Fed, ECB and BoJ all set to meet, while companies including Alphabet, Eli Lilly and BP provide fresh guidance. We also hear from Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, on the recent underperformance of technology stocks and what to look out...

Despite a complex backdrop of geopolitical tensions, elevated bond yields, and rapid technological change, capital markets have shown remarkable resilience this year, defying expectations of deeper disruption. What’s behind this strength, and how should investors position for what's next?

In this episode, Yves Klenk, Head of Client Coverage and Advisory, and Marko Radovic, Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of Alternatives at Julius Baer, join Helen Freer to discuss the major themes shaping financial markets today. They reflect on the biggest surprises of the year, the outlook for broadening market performance, and where investors can find opportunities to...

Meta Platforms sparked a broader sell-off across the semiconductor complex after reporting its first cash outflow in more than a decade. At the same time, government bonds rallied, pushing the 10-year US Treasury yield back below 5%. Meanwhile, pressure on French assets intensified, with the spread between French and German 10-year government bond yields widening towards 180 basis points. In today’s Moving Markets episode, Richard Tang, Head of Research in Hong Kong, joins us to discuss the outlook for Chinese equities after major indices slipped into bear-market territory.

On Wednesday equity markets across Europe rallied on the back of strong earnings announcements with even France’s CAC 40 gaining more than 1% on the day. Nervousness in French bonds markets continues though, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching 5% for the first time since 2002. The positive tone was echoed in the US where indices also closed higher and earnings again broadly satisfied. However, after the close the mood changed as Tesla’s earnings disappointed and geopolitical tensions saw Brent oil rise above USD 110 per barrel. Asian equity markets have sold off this morning with China’s CSI 300 heading into bear m...

Oil volatility, a broadening equity rally and earnings dominated markets yesterday. While Netflix disappointed, SpaceX delivered standout results and Elon Musk floated the idea of a potential tie-up with Tesla. In Asia, stronger semiconductor sentiment and robust Japanese export growth supported risk appetite, offsetting weakness in CATL, China’s top battery maker, following its earnings release. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, examine Europe as France's debt concerns deepen, European bank stocks central to Italy’s and Spain’s stock markets hit a four-month low, and Swiss large caps have been outper...

US technology stocks bounced back on Monday after last week's sharp sell-off, while political unrest in France weighed heavily on European markets, French bonds, and the euro. Oil prices swung on escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and investors continued to assess the implications of higher interest rates, AI investment spending, and upcoming earnings. In today's show, Enrico Chinello from Next Generation Research discusses last week's weakness in AI-related stocks, explains why we remain constructive on the long-term AI opportunity, and highlights the growing importance of cybersecurity.

The Nasdaq just posted its worst week since Liberation Day amid growing doubts over AI momentum. Capital rotated into bonds, with the US 10-year Treasury yield recording its biggest weekly decline since February, despite firm inflation data. Meanwhile, the ongoing earnings season looks set to test market sentiment. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why the medium- to long-term outlook for the technology sector is still positive, and what it would take for this to change.

China's Golden Week is often viewed as a pulse check on the health of the world's second-largest economy. This year, the results have reignited debate over consumer confidence, policy stimulus and the outlook for growth. In this episode, we examine what the latest Golden Week trends reveal, while exploring the bigger investment questions around China's property market, technological ambitions, export outlook and the impact of escalating trade tensions.

Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research, Hong Kong at Julius Baer, sits down with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer of Lotus Asset M...

European markets closed in positive territory on Thursday as investors rotated out of AI and tech stocks into defensive sectors such as healthcare and materials, as well as buying up government bonds. The same story played out in the US where the Dow Jones was the star performer. Overnight comments from Fed Chair Warsh led to traders reducing their bets on an October hike from 25% to 15%. Warsh also made some encouraging comments about artificial intelligence which doubtless assisted the Asian equity market recovery this morning. As ever on a Friday, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, joins...

Markets were driven by three themes yesterday: hotter US inflation, rising expectations of Fed rate hikes, and a growing AI sell-off. These forces weighed on equities, even as market breadth in the S&P 500 remained broadly balanced, and triggered sharp swings in bonds and currencies. Europe held up well, but risk sentiment remains fragile heading into today, with technology stocks in Asia also under pressure. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, discusses iron ore, including why the same iron ore trades at sharply different prices in different locations around the world.

Fed comments eased fears of prolonged policy tightening, helping equities recover from an uncertain start. Beneath the surface, however, AI-related stocks remained under pressure amid fresh concerns over China's technological ambitions, while US bank earnings failed to impress. Meanwhile, surging gas prices and renewed attacks in the Middle East reignited concerns ahead of today's US inflation report. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, discusses the implications for corporate bonds, while Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, examines the outlook for both US and European banks.

Geopolitical developments remained firmly in focus on Monday, lifting oil prices and supporting energy stocks, while technology shares came under pressure. At the same time, investors digested hawkish central bank rhetoric and prepared for the start of a closely watched earnings season. In today’s show, Enrico Chinello from Next Generation Research discusses OpenAI’s revenue rate, intensifying competition within the AI industry, and the growing opposition to data centre expansion.

Markets rebounded on Friday as OpenAI's revenue outlook and Trump's ‘energy ceasefire’ with Russia eased supply concerns, weighing on oil despite geopolitical risks. SpaceX's move into mobile telecom sent US carriers sharply lower. Attention now turns to major US bank earnings, inflation data, and semiconductor results. In today’s show Markus Wachter from our Technical Analysis team explains why the US technology sector remains the only game in town, what levels the euro needs to defend, and what lies ahead for precious metals.

Hyperscaler investment in AI infrastructure has reached unprecedented levels, with capital expenditure figures now dwarfing even those of the global oil and gas industry. As spending surges and supply tightness persists, investors are wondering how sustainable this boom is, and which segments of the AI value chain stand to benefit most?

In this episode, Ayako Lehmann, Head of Webcasts & Video at Julius Baer, is joined by Enrico Chinello, research analyst in the Next Generation Research team, to examine the drivers behind hyperscaler spending, the impact on the AI value chain, and the outlook for key beneficiaries such...

Markets stumbled after a newspaper report suggested that OpenAI's annualised revenues could fall well short of previous expectations. Overnight, however, sentiment improved as doubts emerged over the accuracy of the report. Meanwhile, a stronger-than-expected 30-year US Treasury auction helped drive yields lower, providing additional support for equities alongside easing oil prices. In today's episode, we are joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, who shares his views on the US dollar, gold, and the emerging market currencies he believes offer the most compelling opportunities.

Markets are being driven by developments in bond markets on both sides of the Atlantic. In Europe, concerns over French public finances weigh on sentiment, while in the US, inflation worries and a well-received Treasury auction triggered sharp moves in yields. Other topics include the challenges facing European carmakers in China, the resilience of US equities, and SpaceX looking to tap the bond market. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, discusses the apparent disconnect between the recovery in Middle Eastern oil exports and persistently high oil prices, as well as the positive momentum in the e...

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs in a broad-based rally, while lower bond yields and oil prices supported European equities. Overnight, renewed Middle East tensions pushed oil prices higher and weighed on Asian markets. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, notes that French fiscal risks are justified, but markets already reflect a fairly pessimistic outlook. The key question is whether the situation in France spills over to other eurozone countries. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, highlights the high hurdle for next week's US earnings season. Key areas to watch include bank earnings, hyperscaler capital...

Equity markets started the week on a strong note, with both European and US stock indices posting solid gains. France proved the notable exception, however, as French equities and government bonds came under pressure amid growing concerns about the government’s ability to rein in the budget deficit ahead of the 2027 elections. In today’s episode, we are joined by Dr Damien Ng from our Next Generation Research team, who shares his latest insights into the remarkable scientific advances and shifting landscape in the fight against obesity, one of the most significant healthcare themes of our time.

Equity markets rallied on Friday after a surprisingly weak US jobs report fuelled hopes that the Federal Reserve may remain on hold for longer. However, enthusiasm was tempered by another rise in Treasury yields, with the US 10-year yield hovering near multi-decade highs. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, keeping investors focused on energy markets despite a coordinated release of emergency fuel reserves by G7 countries. In today's show, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, shares his views on European equities, the euro, and what the current market environment means for investors.

With the US 10-year treasury yield recently crossing the 5% threshold and the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance, bond investors are facing heightened volatility and a rapidly shifting landscape. Are higher yields a warning sign of greater risk, or do they present new opportunities for portfolio construction?

In this episode, Rishabh Saksena, Co-Head of Global Asset Class Specialists at Julius Baer, is joined by Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research. Together, they dissect the drivers behind the recent surge in yields, the implications of monetary policy repricing, and the nuanced impact of a more hawkish Fed...

Markets endured a turbulent start to the fourth quarter as a global bond sell-off pushed US Treasury yields to their highest level since 2002 and intensified concerns over French public finances. European equities came under pressure, while US stocks recovered late in the session. Oil prices surged on supply concerns and geopolitical tensions, adding to inflation worries ahead of today's closely watched US payrolls report. In today's show, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, discusses the outlook for the US dollar, the euro and precious metals.

European inflation surprised to the upside, driven by energy prices, while softer US inflation data offered some reassurance for markets. However, the bond market stress continued with Treasury yields rising, weighing on equities in their final stretch of the quarter. Asian markets opened Q4 positively, led by technology shares after Micron's strong revenue outlook. Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, shares his insights about Asia and what he expects from the region in the final innings of the year.

Whilst the 30-year US Treasury bond yield rose for a sixth consecutive session, traders were calmed somewhat by comments from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams yesterday. Markets are now pricing in a 49% chance of a Fed rate hike in October, down from 71% on Monday. This didn't help US indices though: they all declined on the day. Asia saw stocks recover and there was encouraging factory activity data out of China. Today sees the release of the Fed's preferred measure of inflation - the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Our Head of Fixed Income Research, Dario Messi...

Rising oil prices and higher bond yields are keeping inflation concerns front and centre, pushing US Treasury yields to their highest level since 2007. The AI investment boom remains in focus, highlighted by NVIDIA's record buyback announcement and Anthropic's S-1 filing, a precursor to an eventual IPO. Policymakers continue to balance inflation and growth concerns, with Australia tightening policy further and China signalling fresh support for its slowing economy. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation, talks about the need of large cities to adapt to climate change, creating a very appealing structural growth outlook for the infrastructure and buildings value...

Global bond yields moved higher once again as oil prices rallied following President Trump’s rejection of Iran’s ceasefire proposal. Meanwhile, Chinese equities fell to their lowest level in a year amid fresh US restrictions on technology exports. In Europe, the financial sector remains firmly in focus as market speculation grows around a potential tie-up between UBS and another major bank. In today’s episode, we are joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who shares his latest views on market leadership, the strongest-performing sectors, and the outlook for precious metals.

US-China relations are back in the spotlight, with investors watching whether talks between Presidents Trump and Xi can deliver meaningful progress and shift market sentiment. The discussions come as Chinese markets contend with trade uncertainty, tentative policy support and a challenging domestic growth backdrop.

In this episode, Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management, about the Trump-Xi talks, the outlook for Chinese equities and property, and sentiment towards Chinese AI stocks. They also discuss the longer-term AI investment story and the impact...

Rising government bond yields remain at the centre of investors' attention as expectations for further rate hikes in the US and Europe continue to build. Combined with a renewed rally in oil prices, higher yields are weighing on risk appetite and limiting the upside for equity markets. In today's episode, Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Advisory in Geneva, joins us to share his views on the US dollar, precious metals, and the key market themes investors should be watching.