Real Vision Daily Briefing: Finance & Investing

Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's new original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. One of the biggest names in global macro, David Rosenberg, joins Harry Melandri to talk about the possible return of deflation, global supply chain issues, and what the next 12 months could look like.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's new original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Howard Lindzon joins Maggie Lake to discuss how a lifelong passion for comedy led to his success in the early days of the internet. He also touches on de-globalization and why finding a unicorn isn’t as important as it may seem.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A surprise rate cut by the People’s Bank of China boosted equity futures early Friday, and stocks did open higher. But any optimism the Federal Reserve would follow the PBoC’s dovish example and not “hike until it hurts” faded before noon. "They are going to break inflation,” says Jim Bianco, “and if they break you along the way, so be it." The S&P 500 slipped into official “bear market” territory, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is on track for its eighth consecutive down week, the longest such streak since 1923. Bianco, President of Bianco Research, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington t...

Do U.S. investors pay enough attention to what’s happening in overseas markets? Real Vision’s expert on the ground in Asia, Weston Nakamura, shares some data at the top of today’s Daily Briefing that may open your eyes to underlying systemic cracks growing in China and Japan. Then, Maggie Lake is joined by Peter Boockvar, who’s concerned about how a slowing world economy will impact companies. “I think the main story now is margin contraction and the direction of earnings,” says the CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group. “We now have P/E multiples compressing, profit margins rolling over...

“This is risk-off behavior returning,” tweeted Michael Gayed less than an hour into today’s trading session, which, two hours ahead of the close, has seen the Dow Jones Industrial Average decline 2.9%, the S&P 500 shed 3.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite nosedive 4.0%. Investors are digesting a second disappointing earnings report from a major U.S. retailer, as Target followed Walmart with more data indicating inflation is, finally, having an impact on U.S. consumer behavior. Gayed, CIO and portfolio manager at Toroso Investments, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about how inflation will turn into defla...

Neither pandemic nor war can keep down the American consumer, even as persistent inflation and supply-chain breakdowns continue to vex economists, policymakers, and financial media talking-heads. U.S. retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.9% in April, and the figure for March was revised upward to 1.4% from 0.5%, data that reflect resilient demand. At the same time, industrial production was up a seasonally adjusted 1.1% in April, beating a consensus forecast of 0.5% and accelerating from 0.9% in March. U.S. equity indexes rallied on the solid economic data. But Vincent Deluard, Global Macro Strategist at StoneX, has concerns. Though he thinks we’ve reached pe...

U.S. equity indexes ground generally higher through the trading session Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 breaking into the green but the Nasdaq Composite struggling in negative territory. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note slipped by six basis points to 2.88%, as bonds caught a bid on economic growth concerns. Recent data from China indicate President Xi’s “COVID Zero” policy is exerting a tremendous drag on the domestic economy, with down-the-line impacts on the global economy sure to follow, including supply-chain snarls. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs Senior Chairman Lloyd Blankfein warned of a "ver...

Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's new original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital LLC, joins Harry Melandri to discuss his bullish case for precious metal mining, particularly in the exploration part of the industry.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's new original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Carson Block joins Maggie Lake to discuss how he went from feeling like an outsider to being an insider in the finance community. Carson explains how writing one report unveiling fraudulent activity at a publicly-traded Chinese company led to the creation of Muddy Waters Research and more.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Markets rebounded sharply Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average on track for its first positive trading session after six consecutive down days. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said engineering a soft landing would involve “some pain,” as the central bank remains on track for 50-basis-point rate hikes in June and July. U.S. consumer sentiment fell to its lowest in more than a decade, as April data from the University of Michigan survey showed a drop from 65.2 to 59.1. The average per-gallon price of gasoline hit a new high and continues to weigh on the minds of Americans. And the geop...

Keeping with the prevailing theme, the U.S producer price index for April came in at a red-hot, consensus-forecast-beating year-over-year reading of 11%, yet another indication that inflation persists. Reflecting the impact of the Federal Reserve’s late hawkishness, if not its recent rate hikes, U.S. mortgage rates jumped again this week to 5.3%, the highest since July 2009. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note slipped below 2.9% on flight-to-safety buying. Nevertheless, as Imran Lakha notes, “The move in bond yields has been wild this year. The total return in bonds hasn’t been this bad in decades.” Lakha, the founder...

The consumer price index for April came in at 0.3% on a month-over-month basis and 8.3% year over year, exceeding estimates on both measures and establishing once again that inflation is going to stick around at elevated levels for the foreseeable future. After opening to the upside, the major U.S. equity indexes surrendered gains and slid into the close. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note crossed above 3% early in the day before settling at 2.91%. Investors continue to grapple with the prospect of the Federal Reserve aggressively hiking borrowing costs into what looks more and more like a slowing...

U.S. equity indexes jumped at the open, faded into lunchtime, and rallied into the last couple of hours of regular trading Tuesday in a session that reflected the general volatility defining financial markets right now. Thomas Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, saw underlying weakness early today. “Everything was up but breaking volume-weighted average price levels, which was a good read on underlying selling,” Thornton tweeted this morning. “And it’s now evident to everyone.” At the same time, Thornton is “really getting excited with this opportunity-rich market.” It’s “not yet” time for long ideas, “but soon” it will be, notes Thornton...

The Dow Jones Industrial average was down 1.3%, the S&P 500 2.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite 3.4%, late in Monday’s trading, as last week’s sell-off continues. Ongoing supply chain problems, new pandemic-related lockdowns in China, and Russia’s war on Ukraine only make the Federal Reserve’s choices more complex as it tries to restrain inflation without tanking the economy. The yield curve steepened sharply, with the difference between the five-year note and the 30-year bond widening to a six-week high. “The bond market is doing the Federal Reserve’s job for them,” notes Jared Dillian. “The Fed is too slow in raising the f...

Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's new original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Ross Gerber is the Co-Founder, President, and CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management. Ross and his team oversee $2.2 billion of investments focused on technology, clean energy and transportation, and more. Ross joins Harry Melandri to break down why he believes Tesla has so much room for growth.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's new original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Legendary Trader, Peter Brandt, joins Maggie Lake to discuss his unprecedented financial journey. Peter sheds light on the early mistakes he made on the floor, what it was like to run his own company, and everything he learned along the way.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The April nonfarm payroll figure topped consensus forecasts, and the unemployment rate held at 3.6%. A slight retreat in the labor force participation rate surprised, but, overall, more evidence of a tight labor market should brace a Federal Reserve as it effects an aggressive tightening cycle. That’s despite the fact that, when it comes to growth, we’re looking at “three straight quarters of almost nothing besides inventory along with a growing catalog of economic data more like Q1 GDP than anything.” So observes Jeffrey Snider, Head of Global Research at Alhambra Investments. Meanwhile, the threat of global recession amid war in E...

U.S. equity indexes rallied hard during Jerome Powell’s post-Federal Open Market Committee meeting press conference yesterday, posting the biggest rally in two years because the Federal Reserve Chair said the central bank was not “actively considering” a 75-basis-point rate hike. Today, 95% of the S&P 500 is trading lower, The Dow Jones Industrial Average is off more than 700 points, and the Nasdaq Composite is down more than 5%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note surged as high as 3.106% before settling at 3.09%, its highest level since 2018, as investors seem to be more and more accepting of the fact that t...

The Federal Open Market Committee agreed to raise the federal funds target rate by 50 basis points and to begin shrinking the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet in June by $47.5 billion, with the runoff pace to reach a maximum of $95 billion per month after three months. The FOMC noted in its statement that “ongoing” increases to the fed funds target rate will be appropriate. The central bank’s quest now is to find some “neutral” rate of interest without tipping the economy into recession. “The last time the Fed made a 50-basis-point move was March 2000,” notes Darius Dale. “The dot-com bubble burst shortly ther...

Not since March 2000 has the Federal Open Market Committee announced a 50-basis-point increase to the federal funds target rate. Now, the FOMC is a day away from doing just that. And traders are pricing in near-even-money odds of a 75-basis-point hike in June. The FOMC is also expected to introduce its plan to reduce the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet on Wednesday, a process with its own implications for interest rates. U.S. equity indexes held solid gains late Tuesday. Factory orders for March rose a better-than-expected 2.2%, job openings reached an all-time high of 11.5 million, and U.S. natural gas pr...

Hard-core technical analysts will tell you that, ultimately, “price” is the only thing that matters. Countless investors, traders, and speculators making decisions about the values of assets will contemplate just about every conceivable issue. “Price” is where all that shows up. Today, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond surged past 3% to a three-year high, as the market braces for the first 50-basis-point increases to the federal funds target rate since March 2000 at Wednesday’s conclusion of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Stocks opened mostly higher but slid into the red as the trading day wore on. The Na...

Real Vision Co-Founder and CEO, Raoul Pal, joins MI2's Harry Melandri on the debut episode of The Next Big Trade to discuss his unique financial journey, potential opportunities in US bond markets, and much more.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's new original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Fan favorite and skilled trader, Tony Greer, joins Maggie Lake in a special live edition to share how exactly he went from being on the exchange floor to running his own company, TG Macro.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. equity indexes traded lower today, with the Nasdaq Composite down 2.7% two hours before the close of regular trading and headed toward its worst month since 2008. The S&P 500 was down 2.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average 1.5%. Inflation remains the major overhang, with supply-chain disruptions as well as high food and energy prices only made worse by pandemic and war and the authorities’ responses to those crises. The Federal Reserve has turned aggressively hawkish, but its efforts to tighten monetary conditions into a slowing economy threaten to bring about recession. Raoul Pal joins Ash Bennington for today’s Real Vision Dail...

U.S. equity indexes were well in the green Thursday afternoon despite the fact that gross domestic product contracted at an annualized rate of 1.4% during the first quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Earnings reports continue to reflect consumer resilience in the face of historic inflation, even as the conflict in Eastern Europe metastasizes and the situation in Japan – with the central bank still trying to control the yield curve but the government pushing for a stronger yen – threatens a fiscal crisis. “The bottom line with the U.S. economy is where the breaking point is with respect to the...

Prices for assets of all kinds were up Wednesday, including stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. The U.S. dollar continued to strengthen, and global bond yields marched higher. That’s despite the emergence of still more signs of underlying weakness, including Robinhood laying off 9% of its workforce. And Russia cut off natural gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria in the latest escalation of the war in Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan will meet tomorrow to discuss monetary policy, as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda remains committed to an accommodative stance despite the yen’s historic weakness. China, too, is sticking with acco...

U.S. stocks fell sharply on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq Composite leading to the downside with a 3.0% loss two hours short of the close of the day’s regular trading, the S&P 500 off 2.1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lower by 1.6%. Today’s selling reflects concern about growth in the face of what seems to be inexorable inflation, as widespread COVID-19 testing in Beijing augurs a lockdown of the biggest city in the world’s second-largest economy. Concerning the war in Eastern Europe, Moscow will stop sending natural gas to Poland on Wednesday, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned...

The major U.S. equity indexes were mixed Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 in the red but the tech-heavy Nasdaq holding a modest gain on reports that Elon Musk is nearing a deal to take Twitter private. Investors continue to grapple with the fact that the Federal Reserve is aggressively tightening monetary policy into what appears to be a slowing economy. As Mark Ritchie II notes, this “feels like a potential lose-lose for riskier assets.” Ritchie II, managing partner and chief investment officer at RTM Capital Advisors, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Real Vision...

Using hedge fund strategies and venture strategies to construct client portfolios. Thanks for watching The Interview, the premier business and finance interview series in the world.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Seasoned investor, Mish Schneider, joins Maggie to discuss her career paths in both trading and teaching, becoming one of the first female traders on the New York Stock Exchange, and so much more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Yesterday, Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy aggressively to fight inflation, noting that a 50-basis-point hike is on the table for the May Federal Open Market Committee meeting. U.S. stocks, still processing the Fed’s hawkish pivot, are well in the red Friday, with the major equity indexes all down nearly 2%. According to Jared Dillian, “The curve will continue to flatten in such fashion until 2s are at 3% and 10s are at 2% (or thereabouts) and we will have a massively inverted curve at the end of this.” Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, thinks...

The U.S. dollar climbed to a fresh two-decade peak to the Japanese yen on Wednesday, this latest move catalyzed by Federal Reserve officials pushing for more aggressive interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan continues to defend its ultra-accommodative policy. Policymakers there believe inflation is indeed transitory and that capping interest rates remains the wise course. But this divergence is creating unprecedented tension in the bond and forex markets. According to Jim Bianco, president and founder of Bianco Research, “The bond market, the banking system, and the financial system are not really designed to have the entire bond ma...

Is the Bank of Japan brewing up a Netflix-blockbuster-level disaster with its dogged adherence to “yield curve control”? Is Netflix itself a blockbuster-level disaster with its declining subscriber numbers? The U.S. dollar hit a 20-year high against the Japanese yen, as the Bank of Japan announced it would buy an unlimited amount of fixed-rate 10-year Japanese government bonds at 0.25% from April 21 through April 26. And shares of the pandemic-era stock market darling plunged 37% today after management reported a 200,000 decline in paying customers during its most recent quarter. The BoJ is desperate to hold interest rates down as other global central bank...

The major U.S. equity indexes were all up more than 1% late in Monday’s regular trading session, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite leading the way with a 1.85% gain. Stocks today seem to reflect a strong start to earnings reporting season. According to Bloomberg, 38 of the 48 S&P 500 components that have reported so far have posted positive surprises. Earlier in the day, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note touched 2.93%, a level the benchmark rate hasn’t seen since 2018, as bond investors continue to price in the impact of Federal Reserve efforts to fight inflation. U.S. natural gas...

“The Fed has been in the business of suppressing volatility in financial assets for most of the post-Global Financial Crisis period,” notes Bill Zox, “but they are out of that business now.” According to Zox, co-portfolio manager at Brandywine Capital, tighter financial conditions to contain inflation mean wider credit spreads and lower equity prices. Zox joins Maggie Lake for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to talk about opportunities for investors in the high-yield bond market amid unprecedented uncertainty at the macro level. War in Eastern Europe has only added to global inflationary pressures. But close to 20% of high-yield is in energy...

Why did global equities stage their biggest rally since November 2020 upon the official launch of a monetary tightening cycle at the March 2022 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee? Why was this decisive risk-on move in stocks led by the tech sector, as front-end bond yields surged, curves collapsed, and dot plots adjusted? And why are the vast majority of market commentators confused, with no consensus explanation forming for this indiscriminate demand for shares as the Fed finally moves off the zero bound? Weston Nakamura explains the sustained upside in global equity markets in the aftermath of Fed Chair Jerome...

Award-winning hedge fund manager and market commentator, Hugh Hendry, joins Maggie to break down his fascinating career, what he learned from 17th century rice traders, and more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The average 30-year mortgage rate in the U.S. surged past 5% for the first time since 2011 this week, up from 4.72% last week, as the market continues to price in an aggressive monetary tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve. Inflation remains the dominant factor for policy makers, investors, and consumers. In fact, as Jared Dillian notes, it’s time to think about the unthinkable: hyperinflation. Policy choices have fed into structural factors to create an upward producer and consumer price spiral that the Fed and other central banks will be hard-pressed to control. Dillian, the editor of The Daily Dirtnap, joins Ma...

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ report on the producer price index for March showed the biggest month-over-month and year-over-year gains on record, 1.4% and 11.2%, respectively, as inflation continues to dominate the discourse. The PPI data follow the hottest consumer price index reading in 40 years, 8.5%. As the Federal Reserve continues to try to convince markets and consumers it’s serious about tightening monetary conditions and reining in spiraling prices, policymakers in China and Japan press on with accommodation. Our man in Japan, Weston Nakamura, joins Maggie Lake at the top of today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to talk about the Japanese yen’s...

The Consumer Price Index increased 8.5% in March compared to a year earlier, another new 40-year-high following a 7.9% annual gain in February. Energy and agriculture markets remain the critical areas of focus, each of them adversely impacted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. U.S. equity indexes surged on a slower-than-expected 0.3% month-over-month CPI increase, and many economists see this as a potential peak in this inflationary period. The Federal Reserve has left the door open for a 50 basis point increase to its federal funds rate target, and “quantitative tightening” is set to commence in May. But there’s little to suggest inflatio...